- Ky McKeon
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Johnny Juzang, Jr., UCLA
Coach of the Year: Tommy Lloyd, Arizona
Newcomer of the Year: Quincy Guerrier, Jr., Oregon
Freshman of the Year: Harrison Ingram, Fr., Stanford
Tier 1
1. UCLA
See full preview here: #9 in our Top-40 countdown
2. Oregon
See full preview here: #15 in our Top-40 countdown
Tier 2
3. Arizona
See full preview here: #34 in our Top-40 countdown
4. USC
Key Returners: Isaiah Mobley, Isaiah White, Drew Peterson, Max Agbonkpolo, Chevez Goodwin, Ethan Anderson
Key Losses: Evan Mobley, Tahj Eaddy, Noah Baumann
Key Newcomers: Boogie Ellis (Memphis), Malik Thomas, Harrison Hornery, Kobe Johnson
Lineup:
Outlook: I’m psyched getting to write about USC this season because it gives me a chance to once again tell the story of me getting denied media credentials to the Trojans’ home bout with South Dakota State in November 2020. Despite many media seats being open and us covering several different games prior, the SID decided to deny me credentials due to our site’s opinion on one Andy Enfield. Apparently, my colleague Matt gave him too hard of a time in his preview that season. Yikes.
But can you blame him? We only speak the truth here at 3MW, and the truth is prior to last season Enfield had underachieved as head coach of USC. Check out these KenPom stats:
It took the Pac 12 POY / DPOY / FOY and top 5 pick Evan Mobley to finally lift USC into the national elite. Was last season an outlier? Or has Enfield finally broken through the invisible ceiling and created a new norm?
USC brings back a ton of production, but Evan Mobley’s departure is enormous – he was a transcendent player on both ends of the floor and anchored USC’s 6th-best defense. The Trojans were impenetrable inside the arc, ranking 2nd in the country in 2PFG% allowed thanks to Mobley and their other giants dotting the frontline. There’s reason to believe USC can be solid on this end again, but this year’s frontcourt doesn’t quite have the length of the past two years.
Isaiah Mobley, Evan’s brother, will occupy one of the starting spots in the frontcourt. Mobley improved last season from a lackluster freshman campaign, but he is NOT his brother. This particular Mobley is a solid power forward and one of the better frontcourt players in the Pac 12, but he can’t be the primary offensive option, and he’s not near the shot-blocker Evan was. Mobley should continue his upward developmental trajectory and could be particularly dangerous if his outside shooting continues to progress. Last season, he shot an impressive 43.6% from deep on 39 attempts.
Mobley’s mobility and versatility make him unique considering his size, and he’ll look to prove he belongs on an NBA roster in likely his final season in college.
Former Wofford transfer Chevez Goodwin opted to return for his super senior season, giving the Trojans a solid option to play at the 5 alongside Mobley. Goodwin made a surprising impact on USC last year, providing reliable rebounding and holding his own in the paint against bigger opponents. USC struggled defensively when Goodwin and Mobley shared the floor, but the sample size was small. Shot blocking will come at a premium, a rarity at USC under Enfield, but Goodwin’s physicality could help offset that. Like Mobley, Goodwin can run the floor; USC has played an uptempo style under Enfield before and it has the frontcourt mobility to do so in 2021-22.
If Enfield opts to play Mobley at the 5, 6’9” wing Max Agbonkpolo could see time at the 4. The former top-60 recruit has had an inefficient two seasons thus far but should see plenty of reps in his third year. Agbonkpolo lacks strength to match-up with more physical 4s, but he does have plenty of length to offer, and can be a deadly floor spacer on the offensive end. Returners Boubacar Coulibaly and Joshua Morgan and 3-star freshman Harrison Hornery round out USC’s frontcourt rotation. Morgan was a full-time starter at Long Beach State as a freshman and had a very good season, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him earn minutes as a junior after being buried in 2020-21.
Tahj Eaddy will also be a challenge to replace after the former Santa Clara transfer came in and aptly performed primary ball handling duties. 6’1” junior Ethan Anderson is the only “true” point guard on USC’s roster this season, but his 2020-21 performance left a lot to be desired. Anderson is a BIG guard at 215 lbs., which can help him bully smaller defenders into the paint. His problem, though, is his shot selection and ball security, which plagued him all season long when he came off the pine. Because of Anderson’s shaky handles and lack of creation ability, Enfield might opt to play Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis at point, a position the former Tiger has experience with during his two seasons under Penny Hardaway. Ellis improved his outside shooting last season and proved to be a good on-ball defender. He should find success in USC’s pick-n-roll heavy attack and be one of the Trojans’ top options offensively.
Drew Peterson will also assist in the ball handling and facilitation efforts, as he did last season. The former Rice Owl brings tremendous size to the backcourt at 6’8” and is an excellent outside shooter and skilled basket attacker. He leads an interesting wing corps full of potential and uncertainty. Luckily, he’ll have super senior Isaiah White back to help ease the newbies into the speed of power conference college basketball. White is a versatile wing who can man several spots on the floor and apparently go supernova from distance, like when he hit seven 3s over a two-game span in the NCAA Tournament after hitting 17 all season. Pairing Peterson and White in the starting five gives USC a lineup of 6’7 – 6’10 at the 1 – 4… length for days.
Freshmen Reese Waters, Malik Thomas, and Kobe Johnson will fight for minutes in the fairly open backcourt. Waters was the top-rated recruit of Enfield’s 2021 class, a 4-star and borderline top-50 player. He opted to enroll early at USC last season, joining the Trojans at midseason and playing a courtesy minute or two of garbage time. He has a ton of potential with his length, athleticism, and shooting ability. Of the all freshmen, he promises to have the biggest impact. Thomas is a 4-star guard as well and already possesses good strength to go along with a healthy dose of ball-handling and athleticism. Like Waters, Thomas could very well see meaningful minutes in his first season in LA.
Prior to last season Enfield had never had a top-35 offense at USC. Evan Mobley’s arrival changed that, and the Trojans finished the season ranked 14th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency standings. With that Mobley brother gone, it’s possible we see a significant dip on this end from an efficiency perspective. There’s still plenty of rebounding with Isaiah Mobley, Goodwin, and White, but shooting won’t be quite as strong sans Eaddy, and the offense will rely heavily on Ellis to create. A fall outside the national top 30 or 40 seems likely.
Bottom Line: USC fans won’t be happy with where we’ve pegged their Trojans in the preseason. Leaving a team coming off an Elite Eight run and ranked by many in the preseason top 25 out of our top 40 might seem egregious (for the record USC is right around #35 for me). But program history matters, and Andy Enfield’s track record is long. More often than not he has underachieved at USC relative to expectations, and this season he doesn’t have a top five recruit to help his cause. There is upside on this roster, and this SHOULD be a Tourney team and fringe Pac 12 contender. Most likely, we see another 20-win season, a KenPom ranking between 40 and 50, and a seed around 8, 9, 10, or 11 in the Big Dance.
5. Arizona State
Key Returners: Marcus Bagley, Jalen Graham, Kimani Lawrence
Key Losses: Remy Martin, Alonzo Verge, Josh Christopher, Holland Woods, Jaelen House, Chris Osten, Taeshon Cherry
Key Newcomers: Marreon Jackson (Toledo), Jay Heath (Boston College), Luther Muhammad (Ohio State), DJ Horne (Illinois State), Alonzo Gaffney (JUCO), Enoch Boakye, Demari Williams, Will Felton, Justin Rochelin, Jamiya Neal
Lineup:
Outlook: There’s a film titled “Disaster Movie” that hit theaters in 2008 to the glee of absolutely nobody. That movie has a robust 1.9 out of 10 on IMDB. I would rather watch “Disaster Movie” than the disaster of a team that was the 2020-21 Arizona State Sun Devils.
A top ten recruiting class and a talented veteran backcourt was unable to create any momentum last season, as the Devils floundered to an 11-14 (7-10) record. ASU’s preseason KenPom ranking of 23rd turned into 86th by year end and was as high as 115th prior to the Pac 12’s insane NCAA Tournament run.
COVID issues and injuries decimated the Sun Devils. Star recruit Josh Christopher played just 15 games, Marcus Bagley just 12, and Taeshon Cherry just seven. Only Holland Woods, the former Portland State transfer, played in all 25 games for ASU last season. Is this a good excuse for ASU’s struggles? Yes, absolutely. Was this team still a massive disappointment of an on-court product even when semi or fully healthy? Yes, absolutely.
As many feared heading into last year ASU had too many mouths to feed – too many players on the roster had a “get mine” and/or “score first” mentality. The offense was reliant on isolation and ball handlers created off screens rather than crisp ball movement. ASU had a very low team assist rate and settled for far too many mid-range jumpers instead of rim or 3-point looks. This season’s squad will look completely different. Only three key pieces return from 2020-21 and none were one of ASU’s ball-demanding guards. Bobby Hurley turned to the transfer wire to turn his program’s fortune around and push for the school’s 4th Tourney berth (including 2020) during his tenure.
Four DI transfer guards join the fold in 2021-22, all of whom have proven to be productive players at their former stops. Toledo import Marreon Jackson, the reigning MAC Player of the Year, figures to have the greatest impact after scoring over 18 PPG and ranking in the top ten nationally in APG last season. Jackson leaves Toledo as the program’s 7th all-time leading scorer and 3rd all-time leader in assists. He was a nightly triple-double threat in the MAC and showed he could hang with stiffer competition throughout his career.
Jackson will step in as point guard giving ASU a rock-solid ball handler and deadly shooter at the point of attack. The 6’1” guard is a career 37.4% 3-point shooter on over 800 3PA.
Jay Heath, a Boston College transfer and 2-year ACC starter, will be Jackson’s right-hand man offensively. Heath was one of the lone bright spots on the Eagle roster last season and one of BC’s most reliable scorers. You’ll notice a pattern with these four transfers: all of them arrive to Tempe with impressive career 3-point percentages (Heath is 36.5%), key for a team that has shot around 33% in each of the past three seasons.
Ohio State transfer Luther Muhammad joined the ASU program last season but sat out due to a shoulder injury. He should be good to go in 2021-22 and promises to be the Sun Devils’ premier defender on the perimeter. Muhammad started 28 games as a sophomore for the Buckeyes and ranked 3rd in the Big Ten in steal rate in 2019-20. With his 36.1% 3-point clip, ASU suddenly has three deadly perimeter weapons projected in its starting backcourt. Additionally, Illinois State transfer DJ Horne, Hurley’s 4th DI transfer in the backcourt, comes in shooting over 40% from the land of plenty during his career. Horne was the only good thing about ISU’s offense last season and led the Valley in percentage of team shots taken on his way to capturing 3rd Team All-Conference hardware.
ASU has been guard-centric under Hurley and that will continue in 2021-22. The Devils are always among the nation’s fastest teams, prioritizing attacking in transition over set plays in the halfcourt. Hurley has a deep backcourt with the four aforementioned guards and the addition of freshmen wings Justin Rochelin, Jamiya Neal, and Demari Williams. Williams is the highest rated of the trio; he has a college-ready frame, good strength and athleticism. Shooting will be a development point for him, but he could find some minutes at the 3 or small-ball 4 this season. Rochelin and Neal are both excellent athletes who project as dangerous drivers and transition threats on offense and plus defenders on the other side of the ball.
Frontcourt play was an afterthought last season and was severely weakened when Romello White opted to transfer to Ole Miss. Rebounding came at a premium on both ends of the floor and ASU was routinely beat at the rim. AJ Bramah, a Robert Morris transfer, was supposed to bolster the frontline this season, but he changed his mind in the summer. In his stead Hurley will turn to 5-star freshman Enoch Boakye and returning forwards Marcus Bagley and Jalen Graham for production.
Graham quietly turned in a productive year in 2020-21. He played the 5 by default and was decent on the glass and great as a shot blocker. Graham’s 7’2” wingspan and ridiculous vertical leap allows him to eat minutes at center, but he’d be better off playing at the 4 alongside a burlier big. With less ball-centric guards this season, it’s possible we see Hurley play through Graham more on the block and at the elbow, where he showed he could do plenty of damage last season.
Boakye reclassed from the 2022 class and is one of the highest rated recruits in Arizona State history. If he can step in right away and be productive, ASU’s ceiling significantly rises. Boakye is a huge post presence with a 7’6” wingspan of his own. He’ll be counted on to be a dominant shot blocker and has the raw potential to develop into an effective scorer on the block.
Bagley shocked many by deciding to return to school this summer. He played just one game after January and appeared to be a lock to either head to the Draft or join another team via the portal. His return as a do-everything forward who can play the 3, 4, or, in rare cases, the 5 is enormous for the Devils who were an adjusted 7.9 points per 100 possessions better when Bagley was on the floor (Hoop-Explorer). Bagley’s ceiling is sky-high; All-Pac 12 honors are very much in his wheelhouse.
Veteran forward Kimani Lawrence, who will be 24 before the season ends, likely comes off the bench once again behind Bagley. Lawrence’s return for his super-senior season is big news for a younger team devoid of continuity. He’ll provide leadership and do a bit of everything on both ends of the floor.
JUCO transfer and former 4-star recruit Alonzo Gaffney could also make a significant impact on the lineup this season. The former Ohio State Buckeye didn’t live up to his recruiting billing in the Big Ten but was solid at Northwest Florida State College last year. At the very least he’ll add length and versatility to the frontcourt rotation. Freshman PF Will Felton has some developing to do before seeing regular minutes.
Bottom Line: Hurley is not unlike Andy Enfield at USC (pre-Elite Eight run last season). The Devils have consistently had an embarrassment of talent under Hurley but have failed to meet expectations. Despite three straight 20+ win seasons prior to last year ASU ranked just 49th, 57th, and 63rd in KenPom and had bubbleicious resumes at the close of the regular seasons. Defense has been a thorn in ASU’s side for a few years now. Muhammad’s arrival should help that effort, and a Boakye + Graham combo in the paint could emulate USC’s shot-blocking of recent seasons. Once again, we see an ASU squad with the talent to make the NCAA Tournament but with a raincloud of uncertainty hovering above its head.
6. Washington State
Key Returners: Noah Williams, Efe Abogidi, Dishon Jackson, DJ Rodman, TJ Bamba, Andrej Jakimovski, Ryan Rapp
Key Losses: Isaac Bonton , Aljaz Kunc, Volodymyr Markovetsky, Myles Warren
Key Newcomers: Michael Flowers (South Alabama), Tyrell Roberts (UC San Diego), Matt DeWolf (Brown), Mouhamed Gueye***, Myles Rice
*** Not on team roster page as of 9/20
Lineup:
Outlook: Don’t look now but Kyle Smith is quietly building a winning program in Pullman. Smith took over for Ernie Kent just two years ago but already has led the Cougars to their most Pac 12 wins (7) since 2015 and their highest KenPom rank (78) since 2011. Smith has consistently exceeded expectations as a head coach, even at his previous stops, and now looks to have Wazzu on the verge of competing for its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2008, back when Tony Bennett roamed the sidelines. Isaac Bonton, Wazzu’s extremely high-usage scoring guard, is gone, but Smith has plenty of talent returning from a young 2020-21 squad and adds even more from the transfer portal. It’s time to stop sleeping on the Cougs.
Wazzu was no pushover last season despite what its 7-12 conference record may say, especially on the defensive end where it ranked 24th nationally (4th in the Pac 12) in adjusted efficiency (per KenPom). Smith led his program to its best defensive performance since 2009, mixing in a morphing, matchup 2-3 zone on about 30% of its possessions (34th highest rate nationally). Three-point denial was key (#1 in Pac 12 in 3PA rate allowed), as was preventing opposing squads from getting easy looks near the rim. Wazzu forced opponents into low-efficiency mid-range jumpers and ranked 26th in Shot Quality’s defensive metrics last season. The Cougs have tremendous length and athleticism all over their roster and should be a stout defensive squad once again.
Offense didn’t always come easy despite the best efforts of Bonton. Wazzu ranked just 10th in the Pac 12 in adjusted efficiency (KenPom) despite taking and making a lot of triples (3rd in the league in 3PA rate, 5th in 3P%). Turnovers were a major problem, as Wazzu ranked 304th nationally and dead last in the Pac 12 in TO rate, as was finishing at the rim (345th in FG% near rim, per Hoop-Math). The structure of Smith’s offense is built to breed success – his style has Princeton influence and the ball moves when not dominated by a high-usage guard. He just needs his guys to take care of the ball better and finish more consistently near the bucket.
All signs point to a dramatic improvement on the offensive end this season. With the addition of South Alabama transfer Michael Flowers and UC San Diego transfer Tyrell Roberts plus the return of Noah Williams, Wazzu will have one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league in 2021-22. Williams, an Honorable Mention All-Pac 12 performer last year, is ready to explode this season finally all the way out of Bonton’s shadow. He proved he could be an alpha scorer when Bonton missed a handful of games last year and poured in 32 against Cal and 40 against Stanford in back-to-back contests in February. At 6’5” with solid handles, Williams can play all three spots on the perimeter and provide tough defense on the other end (5th in the Pac 12 in steal rate last year). Offensively, he’s a knockdown shooter, can post smaller guards, and can create his own shot or for others.
Flowers might be an upgrade over Bonton, which is high praise considering the latter was a 2nd Team All-Pac 12 performer last season. Flowers led the Sun Belt in scoring last season on his way to picking up 1st Team All-Conference and Newcomer of the Year hardware. Previously, he scored over 1,000 points at Western Michigan in just three seasons. Like Williams, Flowers can create off the bounce or shoot from deep, and, most importantly, he doesn’t turn the ball over.
Look for Flowers to compete for All-League honors in his first and only season in a Power 6 league.
Roberts comes to Pullman a bit under-the-radar following a season in which he opted out. When UCSD was a Division II squad back in 2019-20 Roberts earned All-American honors and made 111 3-pointers at a 46% clip. While primarily an outside shooter, Roberts isn’t just a standstill catch-and-shoot guy. He’s a dynamic ball handler who can shoot off step-backs and requires just an inch of space to cash a long-ball try.
Sophomore TJ Bamba and junior Ryan Rapp round out the primary backcourt rotation. Bamba started four games last year and shot 12/20 from deep as a freshman. Turnover issues plagued his first season, but he did prove he could score, averaging 13 PPG over his last two games. Rapp is mostly an outside shooter, but the Aussie can also run point in a pinch. Both players bring size to the perimeter at 6’5”.
Two newcomers, Jefferson Koulibaly, a reclass from 2021 who medically redshirted last year, and Myles Rice, a 3-star prospect, likely won’t see much floor time with the aforementioned quintet of guards.
Wazzu’s frontcourt is nearly as robust as its backcourt with several guys who could see regular minutes this season. Pac 12 All-Freshman Team honoree Efe Abogidi is a lock to start after starting every game last season. He’s a beast on the glass (8th in the Pac 12 in OR%, 4th in DR%), a good finisher, and great FT shooter. With his freak athleticism and developing outside shot, Abogidi promises to be one of the more versatile forwards in the conference this season; a major leap in production seems likely.
If Abogidi mans the 4, fellow sophomore Dishon Jackson likely starts at the 5. He, too, is a solid rebounder and protects the rim well on defense. Finishing will be Jackson’s chief improvement point this season after shooting sub-50% from inside the arc and just 51.2% near the rim in 2019-20. 6th year forward Tony Miller could also see time up front after missing half of last year due to unknown reasons. He’s tough and physical and plays bigger than his 6’6” frame.
Lineup versatility is Wazzu’s greatest strength heading into the season. The Cougs have multiple players who can play multiple spots, two of whom are DJ Rodman and Mouhamed Gueye. Rodman (Dennis’s kid) is mostly a shooter (unlike his dad), canning 41% of his 3PA last season (45% in Pac 12 play). Smith may opt to start Rodman at the 3 and shift Williams to the 2, as he did a few times late last season.
Gueye reclassed to the class of 2021 after ranking as a top 50 recruit in the class of 2022. He’s just the 3rd top 100 prospect in Wazzu history and is absolutely dripping with talent and potential. At 6’10”, Gueye can handle the ball and shoot off the bounce, and he’s incredibly smooth running up and down the floor. With a 7’5” wingspan and plus mobility, Gueye can pretty much pick the position he wants to defend. It will be difficult for Smith to keep him off the floor even in a crowded frontcourt.
Bolstering the frontcourt for good measure is sophomore Carlos Rosario, a highly touted prospect from the Dominican Republic who was buried last year, and Brown transfer Matt DeWolf, a ground-bound rebounder and post presence. As if all that wasn’t enough, in August 6’8” sophomore Andrej Jakimovski opted to return to Pullman after entering the transfer portal. Jakimovski started 19 games as a freshman and can function as a stretch 4 or bigger 3 in the rotation.
Kyle Smith thought he had Kim Aiken coming to Pullman by way of Eastern Washington where he was part an NCAA Tourney team and a 1st Team All-Big Sky member and Defensive Player of the Year. Unfortunately Aiken was denied entry into the graduate school of his choice (despite a 3.48 GPA). He instead takes his talents to conference rival Arizona.
Bottom Line: Wazzu’s depth, talent, and coaching puts a very high ceiling on its 2021-22 season outlook. If everything breaks right the Cougars could crack the top 25 and finish in the top four of the Pac 12. To start, given the program history and considerable jump it still needs to make, we’ll slot the Cougs in the middle of the pack as a bubble contender.
7. Colorado
Key Returners: Evan Battey, Eli Parquet, Jabari Walker, Keeshawn Barthelemy, Tristan da Silva
Key Losses: McKinley Wright IV, Jeriah Horne, D’Shawn Schwartz, Dallas Walton, Maddox Daniels
Key Newcomers: Quincy Allen, Lawson Lovering, KJ Simpson, Javon Ruffin, Julian Hammond
Lineup:
Outlook: Colorado had arguably its best season since the 60s last year under 11-year head coach Tad Boyle. The Buffs finished a muscular 14-6 in Pac 12 play, earned a 5-seed in the Dance (highest in school history), and finished 8th in KenPom, an unprecedented mark for the program. Including the COVID cancellation, Boyle has led CU to six NCAA Tournaments; from 1970 to 2010, the Buffs made just two. So, it’s safe to say Boyle has lifted the ceiling of the CU program during his tenure, and now he brings in its best class ever, ranking 11th per 247 Sports. Replacing McKinley Wright IV and a handful of other seniors will be challenging, but there’s enough talent lingering in Boulder to propel the Buffs to another Dance.
Boyle’s style is known for its defense, grittiness, and physicality. CU has ranked in the top 40 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency standings in each of the past three seasons under Boyle, and this is normally the strong end of the floor for his squads. Last year, though, it was CU’s offense that led the charge, ranking 13th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Boyle’s offensive approach is known as “Tad Ball” or “Boyle Ball” and carries the reputation of being bland and unexciting. The Buffs were a very balanced offensive team last season from a play-type perspective – they didn’t do a lot or a little of any one thing. Ball screens were a staple with Wright IV controlling the rock, but other than that there was a fair mix of post-ups, transition, hand-offs, spot-ups, and everything in between. Wright IV’s departure could lead to a dip in efficiency, but if CU continues to shoot 81.9% from the free-throw line, the 2nd best mark in the country in 2020-21, it should still be a top-50 team on the offensive side of the ball.
Tough defense should still be a major component of the make-up of this year’s version of the Buffs. Eli Parquet, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, returns, and Boyle still has a ton of size in the frontcourt to deter rim attacks. This will be a significantly younger squad than last season, but there’s plenty of athleticism and experience to uphold the defensive foundation.
Replacing Wright IV will be no easy task. He’s one of the most decorated Colorado Buffaloes in school history and started every single game during his 4-year career. Western Carolina transfer Mason Faulkner was supposed to be the answer, but he called an audible to Louisville after committing to CU earlier in the offseason.
Sophomore guard Keeshawn Barthelemy was Wright IV’s backup last year, playing spot minutes at PG when the superstar sat and occasionally alongside him. He handles the ball well and can shoot a bit, so expect him to see an increase in PT this season - he likely begins the year as the Buff starting PG. 4-star freshman KJ Simpson is more of a combo-guard, but he is every bit capable of running point if CU requires. Simpson, a former Arizona commit, is an explosive, quick guard who’s sure to turn in a few highlight reel dunks and should make an immediate impact in the backcourt. 3-star recruit Julian Hammond rounds out the lead-guard rotation.
The aforementioned Eli Parquet leads a long albeit young wing corps brimming with two-way potential. Parquet was an All-Defense team member last season in the Pac 12 and a 41.8% shooter from deep. He’ll have a starting spot locked down, but the other wing position is up for grabs.
Sophomores Nique Clifford and Luke O’Brien could both ink some minutes in the CU backcourt, both capable shooters. But Boyle likely goes with a freshman or plays “big” by moving Tristan da Silva or Jabari Walker (more on him later) to the 3. Da Silva is not yet as accomplished as his big bro Oscar, but he showed some flashes during his rookie campaign. The 6’8” German native is perimeter-oriented and possesses good length and the ability to play the 3 or 4. 4-star freshman Quincy Allen is ready to play big minutes – he brings length, athleticism and gorgeous shooting to the fold. Fellow freshman Javon Ruffin, a 3-star prospect, does a bit of everything on the floor but likely spends most of this season riding the pine.
Frontcourt play should be strong next season with Honorable Mention All-Pac 12 forward Evan Battey returning to man the paint. Battey is a mammoth of a human at 6’8” 262 lbs. but has a feathery touch around the interior and from the free throw line where he converted 82.5% of his tries last season. Everyone has likely played with or against a “huskier” fellow in a pickup game before who possesses an unexpectedly soft touch – that is Battey in a nutshell.
While not a shot-blocker, Battey holds his own in the paint with his girth, and he’s consistently among the better rebounders in the conference.
Boyle has two main options to pair with Battey in some fashion. If he opts for a smaller lineup, 6’8” sophomore Jabari Walker will see the lion’s share of minutes at the 4. Walker made the Pac 12’s All-Freshman team last season and is a player I think is going to EXPLODE in a major way in 2021-22. Walker was a perfect complementary piece last season; he’s an excellent cutter and knows how to properly space the floor and spot-up. Per Shot Quality, 75% of Walker’s shot attempts last season came near the rim or from behind the arc, where he shot a blistering 52.3%. This year Walker needs to be more than just a complementary piece. He’ll continue to be a deadly pick-n-pop threat, but CU will need him to be a more primary scoring option on the offensive end. The sky is the limit on his progress this season.
Freshman Lawson Lovering, one of the highest rated recruits ever to commit to the CU program, could be an option next to Battey at the 5 if Boyle wants to slide Walker to the 3. Lovering is a legit 7-footer with some serious length and floor stretching capability. At the very least Lovering can serve as a rim protector during his freshman campaign and develop into a more well-rounded weapon over the next couple years.
Bottom Line: Colorado is much younger than last season but still has the talent to push for another at-large bid. The Buffs will need Walker to develop into a go-to threat and for someone to step up into the point guard role. And even if the offense isn’t quite as potent as last season, the defense, in true Tad Boyle fashion, should be tough as nails.
8. Stanford
Key Returners: Jaiden Delaire, Spencer Jones, Michael O’Connell, Lukas Kisunas, Noah Taitz
Key Losses: Oscar da Silva, Ziaire Williams, Daejon Davis, Bryce Wills
Key Newcomers: Harrison Ingram, Isael Silva, Jarvis Moss, Maxime Raynaud
Lineup:
Outlook: COVID, injuries, and maybe even a sprinkle of chemistry issues crushed Stanford last season, a team with all the pieces to compete for a Pac 12 title. The Cardinal started 2020-21 off with a bang, beating the breaks off Bama, but floundered at the end of the year losing their last four conference games and the first game of the Pac 12 tournament to Cal. Head coach Jerod Haase has ZERO NCAA Tournament appearances in his five seasons at the helm and is a paltry 19-19 in the league the past two years. Talent has not been the problem – Stanford has had a top 20 recruiting class in 2017, 2018, and 2020; Haase has just failed to develop his talent into a consistent winner. Another top 20ish class arrives this offseason to Palo Alto, but the Cardinal will be without Oscar da Silva, one of the program’s all-time great players.
Da Silva was vital on both ends of the floor last season. He was a 1st Team All-Pac 12 and All-Defense member, and the Tree struggled when he was on the bench:
Per Hoop Explorer
Offense became anemic without da Silva on the court, but that’s been an issue for Haase every season. Somehow Haase has never had a top 110 offense at Stanford (per KenPom); last year his team was incapable of shooting, ranking 311th in 3PA rate and 248th in 3P%. Pick-n-roll action was a staple to the Tree attack in 2020-21, but Stanford’s offense oftentimes dissolved into a “my turn, your turn” affair among the talented backcourt. 5-star mega recruit Ziaire Williams did not live up to his billing, and Daejon Davis wasn’t the leader his team desperately needed. Though on paper Williams and Davis’s departures might seem detrimental, it could actually be addition by subtraction.
Young talent abounds on this year’s roster, enough to make a push for an at-large bid if Haase can finally get his squad over the hump, but team success will ride heavily on the shoulders of senior Jaiden Delaire.
Delaire took home the hardware for the Pac 12’s Most Improved Player last season and was an Honorable Mention All-Pac 12 honoree as well. He stepped up in a major way his junior season, grabbing a starting spot, earning major minutes, and ranking 2nd on the team in scoring. Delaire will now be counted on as a primary offensive catalyst; while he’s not Oscar da Silva, Haase may very well use him in similar ways on the offensive end. Delaire’s length and improving jumper make him a tough assignment for opposing defenses.
Haase’s frontcourt rotation will be a source of intrigue. Delaire will start, but Haase has a multitude of options to pair alongside his senior star. I’m not sure Stanford can survive defensively with Delaire at the 5, so seeing 6’10” senior Lukas Kisunas get a courtesy starting nod, as he did in 14 games last season, seems likely. Kisunas is a good rebounder and a big body but is limited offensively – 82% of his FGA came at the rim last season (Hoop-Math). 6’9” sophomore Max Murrell, a former 4-star recruit, could be a great option at the 5. He can space the floor and has the athleticism and length to be a formidable rim protector. Whether starting or not, Murrell promises to see the floor much more this season.
If Haase went from a pure talent perspective – putting his best five players on the floor, position apathetic – junior wing Spencer Jones and 5-star freshman wing Harrison Ingram would start alongside Delaire. Jones has effectively been a two-year starter for the Cardinal and put on 20-30 pounds last season, helping spur another solid year. He’s the best shooter on the roster, connecting on 40.7% of his 312 career 3PA, and doubles as a valuable and versatile defensive presence. It’s hard to see Haase bringing Jones off the pine.
Ingram didn’t come to Palo Alto to come off the bench, a legit top 15 player in the 2021 class. He brings lots of size and lots of strength on the wing and is a decent shooter and capable ball handler to boot. We’ve seen one 5-star wing flame out under Haase already, hopefully Ingram can live up to his hype.
The point guard position seems to be in good hands with sophomore Michael O’Connell. Haase threw his 3-star freshman into the deep end last year, and O’Connell learned to swim. He proved his ability to get to the free throw line with regularity and was a steady facilitator for much of the year. Defensively, O’Connell was no slouch either, ranking 8th in the conference in steal rate last season. Fellow sophomore guard Noah Taitz also saw a good chunk of minutes as a freshman but wasn’t nearly as successful. Taitz posted an o-rating of 77.5 and turned the ball over nearly a quarter of the time while shooting 26.2% from deep. He should improve with a year under his belt, and he’s most definitely a MUCH better shooter than he showed in 2020-21.
O’Connell will have some competition at the lead guard spot with 4-star recruit Isael “Isa” Silva coming to town. Silva has an “middle-aged man in a rec league” type of game with the way he passes the ball. He’s one of the more creative passers for his age I’ve seen on tape, and his basketball IQ shines through his play, especially with the way he sees the entire floor. 3-star shooting guard Jarvis Moss brings much needed shooting to the fold, but it’s unclear if he’ll crack the rotation in year one.
A bevy of forwards will compete for bench and mop-up roles this season. James Keefe (Stanford legend and former NBA hooper Adam’s son) is a walk-on but still saw key time with the Tree’s lack of bodies last year. Brandon Angel almost certainly gets more run his sophomore year after coming to Stanford as a 4-star recruit. Like Moss, Angel is one of the few “good” outside shooters on the roster. 7-foot center Keenan Fitzmorris likely continues his deep bench spot, while French freshman Maxime Raynaud could develop into a key role player down the road with his size and ability to stretch the floor.
Defense has been the calling card of the Cardinal under Haase in recent years. His switch from zone to all man-to-man after the 2018 season paid dividends, as the Tree ranked 7th in KenPom’s adjusted DE rankings in 2020 and 28th in 2021. Haase’s squads play disciplined defense and rotate off the ball extremely well. Bryce Wills’s departure is a concern, but Stanford still has an exorbitant amount of length on the perimeter. The interior is concerning sans da Silva. Murrell might need to step up as a legitimate rim protector / paint anchor, or Stanford could be soft inside again bigger Pac 12 teams. Of course, this wouldn’t matter quite as much if Haase could cobble together a top 100 offense.
Bottom Line: The NCAA Tournament is a reasonable goal for Stanford this season, and frankly it should be an expectation from a pure talent point of view. Haase brings in his former UAB assistant Rob Ehsan, potentially helping his program’s offensive woes, but the jury is still out on whether he can deliver a competent offensive product. What good are top 20 recruiting classes if they don’t lead to winning? Haase might find out the answer the hard way if his team misses the Dance for an 8th straight year and the pressure on his position continues to mount.
Tier 3
9. Oregon State
Key Returners: Warith Alatishe, Jarod Lucas, Gianni Hunt, Roman Silva, Maurice Calloo, Rodrigue Andela
Key Losses: Ethan Thompson, Zach Reichle, Dearon Tucker, Tariq Silver
Key Newcomers: Tre Williams (Minnesota), Xzavier Malone-Key (Fairleigh Dickinson), Ahmad Rand (Memphis), Chol Marial (Maryland), Dexter Akanno (Marquette), DaShawn Davis (JUCO), Glenn Taylor Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook: In arguably the strangest season in college basketball history, the Beavers made one of the most improbable postseason runs ever. Oregon State entered the Pac 12 Tournament just 14-12 (10-10) (which was a surprise in and of itself) and ranked 103rd in KenPom prior to rattling off an unbelievable winning streak. OSU took down UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado, three of the best teams in the league, to capture the conference auto-bid, and then took down Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyola to reach the program’s first Elite Eight since 1982. Former hot-seat occupant Wayne Tinkle was extended this offseason through the 2027 season and now has taken his Beavers to their only two NCAA Tournaments since 1990. Lightning may not strike twice in Corvallis, but OSU will at the very least have a deep frontcourt and once again be a pain to play against.
One of the main factors in OSU’s crazy run last season was Tinkle’s tinkering with the Beaver defense. He threw a morphing, matchup zone at his opponents that took them out of their normal sets, forcing them to speed up and make poor decisions.
OSU played the 33rd most zone in the country last year and down the stretch simply out-worked and out-scrapped opposing teams. Luck was certainly on their side throughout the year, as Pac 12 opponents shots just 32.5% from deep (worst in the league) and teams overall shot just 30.6% (30th lowest 3P%), but some credit should be given to the Beavers’ ability to scramble and contest shooters. For the season the Beavers’ defense was average, allowing too many second-chance points and free throw trips to offset their opponents’ poor shooting. This year should be more of the same, as Tinkle returns his best defender and is likely to feature more of his hectic half-court zone.
Oregon State was on fire late in the year, but for the majority of the season it relied on Ethan Thompson’s creation and scoring abilities combined with post play, getting to the foul line, and earning extra possessions off the offensive glass. Tinkle’s squads play primarily in the half-court, largely eschewing transition. The Beavers worked the ball nicely last season and got good shots, ranking 13th in Shot Quality’s metrics. Replacing Thompson’s production is going to be a challenge; Tinkle has talent in the backcourt at his disposal but it’s either unproven or falls short of Thompson’s skillset.
Returners Jarod Lucas and Gianni Hunt likely start in the backcourt this season, both looking to expand on their 2020-21 roles. Lucas is OSU’s returning leading scorer, and he proved he could score off the bounce and create off ball screens when called upon. A 39% 3P shooter last season, Lucas is best off the ball where he can pop off screens and catch-and-fire. Hunt should take over PG duties after turning in a good assist rate last year and a manageable TO rate. He too shot well from deep, knocking down 37% of his 3PA, and doubled as a solid on-ball defender. The quick lefty guard should be primed for a major step up in production this season.
Tinkle brought in some firepower from the transfer portal to supplement Lucas and Hunt. JUCO transfer DaShawn Davis, an NJCAA 1st Team All-American last season and the #7 JUCO recruit in the country per 247 Sports, could edge out one of the incumbents for a starting spot on day one. Davis averaged 21.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, and 2.9 SPG last year and is an extremely dynamic, bouncy guard who can shoot from anywhere.
Tre Williams started 13 games for Minnesota last season, and while he didn’t shoot well from the floor last year, he does have the ability to fill it up on offense. Williams will be valuable for his ability to score in isolation, a much-needed skillset sans Thompson. FDU transfer Xzavier Malone-Key will compete with Williams and Davis for starts as well. He’s an athletic scoring wing who knocked down 35% of his 3PA in 2019-20.
Marquette transfer Dexter Akanno barely saw the floor for the Golden Eagles last season, but he brings length and athleticism to the fold. 3/4-star wing Glenn Taylor Jr. might be a year or two away from contributing.
Oregon State’s frontcourt is loaded this year with the return of Warith Alatishe, Roman Silva, and Maurice Calloo, each of whom flirted with turning pro this offseason. Alatishe was a Pac 12 Honorable Mention All-Defense honoree last season and one of the most pleasant surprises of any player in the conference. Not even an All-Southland player at Nicholls State, Alatishe started every game for the Beavers and was a monster on the glass and on the defensive end. He ranked 2nd in the Pac 12 in OR%, 1st in DR%, 5th in block rate, and 3rd in steal rate last year.
Alatishe may not be a polished scorer, but he’s an incredibly valuable “garbageman”, “bring your lunch pail to work” type of player every team yearns to have on their roster.
Silva is OSU’s best post scorer and a guy Tinkle can run the offense through. 70% of his shot attempts came near the rim last season (Hoop-Math), and he connected on 71% of them. Silva ranked in the 90th percentile on post-ups last year, scoring 1.071 PPP (Synergy). This season he’ll look to stay on the floor longer and reduce his fouling tendencies.
Calloo, a former OK State Cowboy, is a reliable stretch forward who mostly floats on the wing on offense. He shot 41% from downtown last year and only 21% of his shot attempts came near the rim (Hoop-Math) despite his 6’10” frame. Look for Calloo to increase his usage this season and be a valuable rotation piece off the bench.
Rounding out OSU’s frontcourt rotation is returning senior Rodrigue Andela, sophomore Isaiah Johnson, Maryland transfer Chol Marial, and Memphis transfer Ahmad Rand. Andela is a super active, paint-bound 5-man who uses his strength and size to bully opponents and grab boards at a high clip. Johnson has potential to contribute defensively, but he likely retains his deep-bench role for another year. Marial is an enormous human with freakishly long arms, but he’s dealt with a bevy of injuries during his two years in college and in high school. When able to play Marial can be an elite shot blocker. Rand, too, is mostly a defensive asset; he was a productive shot blocker in the JUCO ranks but barely saw the floor at Memphis.
Bottom Line: Beaver faithful should expect a typical Wayne Tinkle season. The three seasons leading up to last year’s incredible run the Beavers finished 18-13 (7-11), 18-13 (10-8), and 16-16 (7-11) and ranked 87th, 81st, and 100th in KenPom. That’s about the range the Beavers fall into this season, with a potential bubble ceiling if reliable scoring can emerge from the backcourt.
10. Utah
Key Returners: Branden Carlson, Riley Battin
Key Losses: Timmy Allen, Alfonso Plummer, Pelle Larsson, Mikael Jantunen, Ian Martinez, Rylan Jones
Key Newcomers: Rollie Worster (Utah State), Marco Anthony (Utah State), Both Gach (Minnesota), David Jenkins Jr. (UNLV), Dusan Mahorcic (Illinois State), Gabe Madsen (Cincinnati), Bostyn Holt (JUCO), Lazar Stefanovic
Lineup:
Outlook: Larry Krystkowiak aka “West Coast Coach K” is out at Utah after ten seasons. The Utes made two NCAA Tournaments under Krystkowiak and crashed a Sweet Sixteen, but the program hasn’t been to the Dance since 2016. Five straight years of “fine” but not great performances led to the regime change in Salt Lake City. In West Coast Coach K’s place steps Craig Smith, the former Utah State head coach and arguably best hire of the offseason by any team in the country. Smith, a past guest on our esteemed podcast, is a rising star on the sidelines and every single year he’s exceeded preseason expectations.
Smith took Utah State to three straight NCAA Tournaments (including 2020) and amassed a Mountain West record of 42-13. Now he looks to rebuild the Utes into a Pac 12 contender once again. Only two key players return from last season’s 12-13 (8-11) squad, and Smith lost considerable talent to the portal with guys going to the likes of Texas, Illinois, Arizona, and Maryland. Smith has turned to the portal himself to accelerate the rebuild process, bringing in two of his former players at USU, a former Ute, and a former Summit/MWC rival to get Utah back on the winning path.
While Utah State didn’t have the best offensive season from an efficiency perspective in 2020-21, it still ran beautiful offense under Smith. His offensive style of constant ball movement, motion, screening, and cutting is wonderful to behold when firing on all cylinders. Smith’s style emphasizes the team over the individual – all three of his USU squads ranked among the nation’s bottom in percentage of plays finished in isolation. The Utes will be more uptempo under Smith than Krystkowiak, they’ll hit the glass hard, and they’ll take good shots.
Smith’s defense was lock-down last season, ranking 8th nationally in adjusted DE per KenPom. Neemias Queta was a huge part of that, but Smith’s tough, physical defensive mindset also played a key role. He brings over two guards from that team in Marco Anthony and Rollie Worster who both carry the reputation of being excellent, hard-nosed perimeter defenders.
Anthony made the MWC’s All-Defense Team last year after transferring to Logan from Virginia. He became a defensive linchpin with his ability to guard multiple positions. Offensively, Anthony isn’t the most efficient player in the world, but he is a capable basket attacker and occasional spot-up shooter. Scraping together 10.0+ PPG in the Mountain West is no easy feat. Worster was one of the biggest surprises in the country last season. USU desperately needed a point guard when Sam Merrill went pro and Worster stepped up as a freshman in admirable fashion. While he went through the normal rookie growing pains of turnovers and inefficiency, Worster proved he could play at a high-level and never backed down from a challenge. This season he’ll be Utah’s presumed starting PG heading into the season.
Joining Anthony and Worster in the backcourt from the transfer portal are Both Gach and David Jenkins. Gach played for Krystkowiak for two seasons before transferring to Minnesota last season, while Jenkins has played against Smith his entire college career at South Dakota State and UNLV. Gach’s initial departure from Utah might’ve seemed odd to many around the country. He was a surefire starter for the Utes and enjoyed a pretty successful sophomore season as one of the primary scoring options. At Minnesota, located nearer to his hometown in Austin, Gach ended up losing his starting spot midway through the year. Over three collegiate seasons Gach has proven he’s a dangerous scorer, but he’s also proven he’s an inefficient one. On a decently high volume of 3PA, Gach is just 27.8% from deep. Defensively he’ll bolster what will be a very tough perimeter shell, and his length and versatility should pair nicely next to Anthony.
Jenkins notched 3rd Team All-MWC honors last season at UNLV and comes to Utah with the reputation of a flat-out scorer. Unlike Gach, Jenkins can light the net on fire from the outside, connecting on 41% of his career 3-point attempts. Smith’s rotations will be interesting to watch, as he essentially has four starting-caliber players fighting for three spots. Jenkins can be utilized as an offensive spark plug off the bench or in closing time, but Smith might not be able to keep him out of the starting five either.
It seems likely Smith will start Worster and Anthony, who already have a year learning under Smith and provide something Smith values in defense. And Gach is a former starter at Utah and surely doesn’t expect to sit on the pine. A four-guard lineup is doable with Anthony stepping up into the nominal 4 role, but the Pac 12 is full of size and that would likely leave the Utes vulnerable.
The most likely starting lineup consists of three of the aforementioned guards and the frontcourt duo of Branden Carlson and Riley Battin, the two key returners from last year’s Utah squad. Carlson has been a regular starter for two years now and brings value as a shot-blocker defensively. He led the Pac 12 in block rate last season, though he is liable to get pushed around inside due to his thin frame. On offense, Carlson is dangerous with his unique combination of mobility, shooting, and touch paired with his 7-foot stature. Utah was solid when Carlson shared the floor with Battin last season and given Battin’s tendency to play like a stretch-4 the Utes will have plenty of spacing on this end while playing two legit forwards. Illinois State transfer Dusan Mahorcic will also be in the mix for starts and minutes at the 5. He ranked 2nd in the MVC last year in OR% and 7th in DR% after transferring in from the JUCO ranks. Mahorcic is a tough post player who can score on the block and mix it up defensively.
Backcourt depth will be filled by Cincinnati transfer Gabe Madsen, returning junior Jaxon Brenchley, and Serbian freshman Lazar Stefanovic. Madsen is a good-sized who opted out last season; he can shoot and guard multiple spots with his 6’5” frame. Brenchley’s playing time tanked after a decent freshman season in which he shot well from deep. Utah could use his shooting this season. Stefanovic will suited up for the Serbian U19 national team this offseason and brings ball handling, passing, and a high basketball IQ to the table.
Frontcourt minutes won’t go much past the aforementioned bigs, but juniors Lahat Thioune and Bostyn Holt could find the floor in spots. Thioune is a big body but lacks in the shot-blocking department. Holt comes to Utah from a very good JUCO program for which he averaged 9.6 PPG and 6.5 RPG. He can score off the bounce and provide a little shooting at the 3 or 4.
Bottom Line: On paper this team seems destined for a bottom-half Pac 12 finish and another season fighting to finish inside the KenPom top 75. Craig Smith is a game changer, though, and his presence alone significantly raises the bar. It would not surprise me to see Utah greatly exceed expectations, as teams have under Smith for each of the past seven seasons.
11. Washington
Key Returners: Jamal Bey, Nate Roberts, Cole Bajema, Riley Sorn
Key Losses: Quade Green, Erik Stevenson, Marcus Tsohonis, RaeQuan Battle, Hameir Wright, Nate Pryor, J’Raan Brooks
Key Newcomers: Terrell Brown Jr. (Arizona), Daejon Davis (Stanford), Emmitt Matthews Jr. (West Virginia), PJ Fuller (TCU), Langston Wilson (JUCO), Jackson Grant, Samuel Ariyibi
Lineup:
Outlook: Before diving into Washington, I’d like to plug Max Vrooman over at UW Dawg Pound (Washington’s SB Nation page). He does a great job breaking down the Huskies from an overall team and player standpoint.
Now onto the preview…
WOOF that was a terrible season. Washington finished as the 9th worst Power 6 team in KenPom but entered the postseason as THE worst, ranking 176th and peaking at 184th a few days prior. Personnel issues factored into the futility, but they had far too much talent to finish 5-21 (4-16). Mike Hopkins has been putrid the last two seasons; after going 15-3 in conference play in 2018-19 his Huskies are just 9-29 in the Pac 12 since. There seemed to be disinterest in certain games last season by Husky players and a litany of chemistry issues.
Hopkins gets to wipe the slate clean in 2021-22 with majority of last season’s roster either graduating or transferring. Two starters return but UW will rely heavily on its new blood to win ball games. The Seattle connection was strong for Hopkins in the transfer portal, as the 5th-year head coach grabbed four Power 6 transfers with local ties. Terrell Brown Jr., Daejon Davis, and PJ Fuller all hail from Seattle, and Emmitt Matthews Jr. grew up a little way down the road in Tacoma. All four should have major roles in the rotation this season.
Brown comes from Arizona where he played a perfect Robin to James Akinjo’s Batman a season ago. Formerly a high usage scorer at Seattle, Brown proved he could play the facilitator / secondary role effectively. He’ll shoot when necessary and bring value as a ball handler (rarely turns it over) and basket attacker. Davis was clearly unhappy at Stanford and was injured for half the year. He turned in his most efficient collegiate season in 2020-21 but the sample size was small. When healthy Davis is a player who can score off the bounce and be a primary option on the offensive end. Poor shot selection and sloppy ball handling have held back his potential thus far in his career.
Matthews was a regular starter for West Virginia over the past couple seasons. He’s not much of an outside shooter but can contribute as a versatile wing who can man the 3 or 4, play good defense, and run in transition. Fuller was a former top 100 recruit who failed to live up to expectations at TCU. He’ll look to turnaround a career that’s comprised of two awful shooting and ball handling seasons in Fort Worth.
Hopkins’s group of transfers are all talented in their own rights, but one glaring weakness is shooting. All four have been either low volume or unreliable outside shooters during their careers. Washington played an uptempo style last season and likely continues to do so this year – all four transfers can really attack on the run and are at their best in the open floor. Hopkins has never achieved a top 110 adjusted OE rating during his time at UW, and it’s hard to see this version of the Huskies changing that unless some major development occurs.
Senior wing Jamal Bey and junior wing Cole Bajema will each be valuable cogs in the UW rotation this season due to their shooting. Bey started nearly every game last year for the Huskies and was their most efficient key player. He shot over 50% from 3 and proved he could score off the bounce and defend on the other end. There’s plenty of potential for Bey to take an alpha role this season, he just needs to assert himself. Bajema improved in the second half of last season and shot 38.7% from deep for the year. At 6’7” he adds impressive size to the perimeter.
Two sophomores, Dominiq Penn and Kyle Luttinen, round out UW’s backcourt depth. Penn is Scoonie’s kid and enrolled back in January.
Washington’s starting 5, Nate Roberts, returns to the fold. Though not a shot blocker, Roberts was a solid rebounder last season, particularly on the offensive end where he ranked 5th in the league in OR%. Offensively, Roberts is limited in his skillset, but he’s a broad-shouldered space eater who adds value with his ability to bang inside. Former walk-on Riley Sorn, a 7’5” giant, played 24 games last season out of necessity. He had his moments last year, scoring 10 against UCLA and 16 against Colorado in just 19 minutes, but his offense starts with “catch” and ends with “dunk”. On the defensive end, Sorn lacks court awareness but does offer more in the rim protection realm than Roberts.
While Roberts is the presumed starter up front, it’s very possible we see JUCO transfer Langston Wilson take over that role during the course of the year. Wilson is the #2 JUCO recruit in the country and comes to Seattle after decommitting from Nate Oats at Alabama. Wilson is an insane athlete with a 7’3” or 7’4” wingspan who promises to contribute plenty of highlight reel dunks and blocks. Marfan Syndrome prevented Wilson from playing basketball at an earlier age, but he’s surprisingly skilled and coordinated for a guy who just picked up the game not too long ago. Freshmen Samuel Ariyibi and Jackson Grant could both see run in their first years. Ariyibi, a Nigerian native, has a 6’11” wingspan and projects and an athletic and versatile defender. Grant is a top 75 4-star recruit out of the state of Washington. He can stretch the floor, put the ball on the deck, and develop into a key part of the UW rotation for many years to come.
Defense is usually the calling card for Mike Hopkins, who brought Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone across the country when he took the UW head coaching position. But last year Washington was awful on this end of the floor, ranking dead last in the Pac 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom). It was so bad that Hopkins even started running a switching man-to-man, reducing UW’s zone play from 93%, 95%, and 82% his first three seasons to just 68% last year. The switch to man yielded dreadful results, though, as the Huskies allowed 0.95 PPP in halfcourt man situations, which ranked 336th in the country per Synergy. Here’s two gems of defensive sets on back-to-back possessions to start a game against Utah:
And…
Extra practice time in the offseason should help iron out some kinks, or perhaps Hopkins opts to fully go back to the 2-3 now that he has a competent shot blocker in Wilson. UW ranked in the top 20 nationally in block rate each of Hopkins’s first three seasons (top 5 in 2019 and 2020), but it didn’t have any rim protection in 2021 ranking just 148th. There’s plenty of length and athleticism on this year’s roster to be a good defensive team and reverse this program’s fortunes.
Bottom Line: Washington is a better program than it performed last season. Even in 2019-20 when UW went 15-17 (5-13) it still finished 54th in KenPom. Expect Hopkins to have a much-improved team this season with a roster featuring heavy roots in the Seattle area. Defense will definitely improve, but Hopkins still has a lot to prove offensively to get back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.
Tier 4
12. California
Key Returners: Andre Kelly, Grant Anticevich, Joel Brown, Jarred Hyder, Makale Foreman, Kuany Kuany, Lars Thiemann, Jalen Celestine, DJ Thorpe
Key Losses: Matt Bradley, Ryan Betley
Key Newcomers: Jordan Shepherd (Charlotte), Obinna Anyanwau, Marsalis Roberson
Lineup:
Outlook: The last four years of Cal basketball have been a train wreck. Cuonzo Martin left the cupboard bare when he departed for Mizzou and Wyking Jones was downright awful, unable to crack the KenPom top 240 in two seasons. Mark Fox took the mop-up job in 2019-20 and seems to have the program at least heading back in the right direction. Cal has improved in each of Fox’s two seasons from the year prior from a KenPom perspective, but the Bears’ 3-17 Pac 12 mark last year was an eye sore. Nearly everyone returns from last season’s squad except for Matt Bradley, the undisputed best player on the 2020-21 team, and former Penn wing Ryan Betley. Fox has legitimate guard depth and strong continuity to help him resume his rebuild.
Bradley was essentially Cal’s offense last season when he was on the floor, but the Bears weren’t putrid during the seven games he missed, going 4-3 both straight up and against the spread. Replacing Bradley’s production though will be a tall task. Bradley led the Pac 12 in percentage of team shots taken and ranked 2nd in usage; it’ll likely take a village to make up for his absence.
Considering the bevy of guards at Fox’s disposal last season, it’s frustrating Fox kept the lid on the team’s tempo. Cal was one of the slowest teams offensively in the country last season from an APL perspective and ranked 340th in percentage of possessions ending in transition. The Bears were a halfcourt-oriented attack who played through Bradley and shot a ton of 3s. Cal led the conference in 3PA rate (41%) but ranked dead last in 3P% (32.3%).
It’s unlikely Fox changes his style and runs an uptempo offense, but he has the speed on his roster to do so. Three guys will vie for point guard minutes with returners Joel Brown and Jarred Hyder and Charlotte transfer Jordan Shepherd. Brown started 21 games last season but likely comes off the pine with Shepherd coming to town. Brown shot well as a sophomore and ranked in the top ten in steal rate in the Pac 12. His turnover issues will need to be solved, but his lightning quickness gives him the potential to be a dangerous transition threat and attacker at the top of the key.
Hyder missed a handful of games at the start of the year due to eligibility concerns and struggled to settle into a flow at Cal after a strong freshman season at Fresno State. He’s a talented player – much better than his 2020-21 88.8 o-rating suggests – and can be a creator for the Bears in lieu of Bradley.
Shepherd figures to have the biggest impact of the three this season. He began his career at Oklahoma before becoming an All-CUSA performer at Charlotte. While not a good outside shooter, Shepherd can get to the tin at will and is a big guard at 6’4” making him a formidable perimeter defender.
Competing for starts off the ball will be Makale Foreman, who returns to Cal for his 5th collegiate season, and Jalen Celestine, a 6’6” sophomore looking to make a leap. Foreman was an All-Conference caliber player at Chattanooga and Stony Brook and is capable of being a high-usage scorer. His 31.6% 3-point clip last year was not indicative of his true shooting ability; he’ll be a reliable perimeter threat this season in a veteran role. Celestine started six of Cal’s final eight games last year and brings length and shooting to the wing. He shot 42.9% from deep on 28 attempts and will look to evolve into a more voluminous shooting presence in 2021-22.
Cal’s defense wasn’t much to write home about last season and was particularly gashed inside. The Bears ranked 315th in FG% allowed near the rim thanks in part to their total dearth of shot-blockers. Unfortunately for Fox, he still doesn’t have much rim protection, but he does have solid offensive frontcourt options to try to offset his team’s defensive gaps.
Andre Kelly is the most productive returning player for the Bears, an undersized 5 height-wise at 6’8” but a load of a player at 255 pounds. Kelly was excellent on post-ups last season, scoring 1.011 PPP, good for the 85th percentile nationally per Synergy.
Kelly ranked in the top five in the Pac 12 in eFG%, TS%, and 2PFG% and should be a guy Cal plays through more this season, particularly without Bradley in the mix. Defensively, Kelly doesn’t offer much; he was rated as a “poor” overall defender by Synergy and allowed 0.988 PPP on post-ups, ranking in the 28th percentile nationally.
Returning starting forward Grant Anticevich likely resumes his role next to Kelly as a stretch-4 threat. He shot 37.5% from deep last season and has gorgeous form. Unfortunately, like Kelly, Anticevich is not a factor on the defensive end.
Fox’s frontcourt isn’t deep from a talent perspective, but he has a few options who could develop into important pieces this season. Kuany Kuany looks to bounce back after a rough sophomore year; he has the ability to turn into a versatile swingman capable of stretching the floor. Lars Thiemann, a 7-footer, adds some resistance inside, but DJ Thorpe seems to be the better option behind Kelly. Thorpe can actually somewhat protect the rim and showed flashes of competency the game of the year against Colorado when he scored nine points in 10 minutes. Sophomore Monty Bowser returns to provide depth on the wing.
Freshman forward Obinna Anyanwu could crack the rotation this season and add to Cal’s defensive effort. He has the length and rebounding chops to be a valuable contributor down the road. Fellow freshmen Marsalis Roberson and Sam Alajiki also seek immediate roles in their rookie campaigns. Roberson is an athletic 2-guard who can handle the ball and guard on the other end. Alajiki, originally from Ireland, is an athletic freak. He has a 40-inch vertical to pair with his 7’2” wingspan and can handle and shoot the ball. From a look-ahead perspective, Alajiki appears to have the most potential and impact ability of the trio.
Bottom Line: Despite Bradley’s departure Cal should put a better product out on the floor this season. Unfortunately, that improvement likely won’t be enough to finish out of the Pac 12’s bottom tier. Experience and continuity will help the Bears’ cause; they’ll just need to find scoring without Bradley and somehow improve defensively after a tough 2020-21 on that end of the floor.