- Ky McKeon

Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Kofi Cockburn, Jr., Illinois
Coach of the Year: Matt Painter, Purdue
Newcomer of the Year: Caleb Houstan, Fr., Michigan
Freshman of the Year: Caleb Houstan, Fr., Michigan

Tier 1

1. Purdue

See full preview here: #6 in our Top-40 countdown

2. Michigan

See full preview here: #7 in our Top-40 countdown

3. Ohio State

See full preview here: #12 in our Top-40 countdown

4. Illinois

See full preview here: #17 in our Top-40 countdown

Tier 2

5. Indiana

See full preview here: #20 in our Top-40 countdown

6. Maryland

See full preview here: #31 in our Top-40 countdown

7. Michigan State

See full preview here: #37 in our Top-40 countdown

Tier 3

8. Wisconsin

Key Returners: Brad Davison, Jonathan Davis, Tyler Wahl
Key Losses: D’Mitrik Trice, Aleem Ford, Micah Potter, Nate Reuvers, Trevor Anderson
Key Newcomers: Chris Vogt (Cincinnati), Jahcobi Neath (Wake Forest), Lorne Bowman II (Redshirt), Chucky Hepburn, Matthew Mors, Chris Hodges, Markus Ilver

Lineup:

Outlook: You couldn’t watch a Wisconsin Badgers game on TV last season without the announcers pointing out that the Badgers’ starting five was older than that of the Chicago Bulls. As a team Wisconsin ranked 12th in the country in minutes continuity and 22nd in experience leading many to peg it as a Big Ten title contender. 2020-21 didn’t go as planned, though, as the Badgers managed a measly 16-11 (10-10) record albeit with excellent analytical metrics (12th overall in KenPom heading into the postseason). Now, Greg Gard has arguably his least talented and least experienced team (on paper) of his 7-year head coaching career. The Badgers will be reliant on a plethora of former deep rotation pieces and freshmen to compete in the always daunting Big Ten.

There is one old head returning for Bucky this season. 22-year old Brad Davison opted to use his optional COVID year and will be counted on to be the undisputed floor / locker room leader. Davison will go down as one of the most accomplished Badgers of all-time, already ranking 4th in school history in starts, 5th in FT%, 5th in 3PM, 12th in steals, and 19th in points. Though Davison couldn’t find ocean if he fell out of a boat inside the arc last season (27.5% from 2 on 102 attempts), he was once again excellent from outside the arc, canning 39.1% of his 3PA. He’s been an excellent 3-point shooter his entire career, and, love him or hate him, he gives the Badgers something every teams wants: a late-shot clock bail-out threat.

Wisconsin runs the methodical “Swing” offense, predicated on creating mismatches in the post and open looks from deep using a variety of cutting, UCLA screens, down screens, flex screens, and fade screens. This offense takes a ton of time off the clock, leading to the Badgers ranking among the nation’s slowest-paced teams year-in and year-out. If the defense stymies the Badge and the shot-clock gets into do-or-die territory, Davison is a player who can create and make a tough shot when necessary.

The good news about having an ingrained system like the Swing is it takes some pressure off a new point guard, something Wisconsin will have this season with D’Mitrik Trice’s departure. Davison has ran point for the Badgers in the past, but in Brian Hamilton’s article for The Athletic, Gard insisted he would be keeping his veteran guard off the ball.

If that’s indeed true, point guard duties will fall on one of three newcomers to the Badger roster: freshman Chucky Hepburn, Wake transfer Jahcobi Neath, or redshirt freshman Lorne Bowman II. Most Badger fans would likely take Hepburn of the three, a 3-star recruit who Gard himself seems quite high on. Hepburn is very poised with the ball and plays “quick” but not “fast”. His creativity, passing ability, and quickness will set him up to be successful in the Swing, and he has the ability to be sticky on-ball defender on the other end of the floor.

Neath started nine games in two seasons for the Demon Deacons with mixed results. While he posted decent assist rates, he struggled with turnovers. Efficiency has been a challenge for Neath in two years – he’s yet to post an o-rating over 90.0 and he shot poorly from the floor his sophomore season after a good freshman campaign. A change of scenery will likely do Neath some good, but in my humble opinion the Badgers would be better off throwing Hepburn into the fire and letting Neath serve as a combo-guard backup.

Bowman has the pedigree to be successful (he’s a former ESPN top 100 recruit), but he took a leave of absence last season and likely hasn’t played much basketball in the past year. Still, Bowman is every bit in the hunt for backcourt minutes; like Hepburn, he’s quick and has a mean pull-up jumper.

Aside from Davison, Gard has two surefire starters in sophomore Jonathan Davis and junior Tyler Wahl. Davis played major minutes as a rookie and now will be challenged to step into a feature role. Davis has a nice “secondary” game, that is he does very well catching, shot-faking, and making a move off the bounce. His shooting and creation potential make him an easy-to-peg breakout candidate in 2021-22.

On defense, Davis is arguably Wisconsin’s most valuable asset. He’s versatile, long, and quick, able to guard multiple spots on the floor. Last season Davis ranked 6th in the Big Ten in steal rate.

Wahl became a regular starter the second half of last season. He’ll look to improve on a career 25% 3P clip and brings value to the Badger lineup as a versatile forward who can play on the wing or in the post and guard multiple positions.

Outside of Wahl, the primary frontcourt rotation will consist of Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt and sophomores Ben Carlson and Stephen Crowl. Vogt likely starts at the 5, but it’s anything but a certainty. He’s a lumbering, slow 7-footer who struggled last season amidst the Bearcat turmoil after a very encouraging junior campaign in which he averaged 11 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 1.6 BPG. At the very least Vogt should be a valuable defensive center – he ranked 5th in the AAC in block rate last season, consistent with the rest of his college career.

Carlson and Crowl are the future of the Badger frontcourt and both could see starts in their second season in Madison. Carlson is a former 4-star recruit whose season was cut short by injury in 2020. Gard gave Carlson decent run last year when he was healthy, as the 6’9” forward averaged 15 MPG in Wisconsin’s first three contests and even scored 13 points in the first game of the season. Crowl projects as a good rebounder and can stretch the floor at 7’0”. In the aforementioned Hamilton article, Gard mentioned how he expects a major jump in development from Crowl this season.

The remainder of Wisconsin’s rotation is up in the air, but I’d be shocked if 3-star freshman Matthew Mors, the #1 prospect out of South Dakota, doesn’t seem some floor time this season. Mors looks like every Badger ever to play at Wisconsin and is an athletic forward who can shoot, dunk in traffic, and bully opposing defenders with his strength.

Fellow 3-star freshmen Chris Hodges and Markus Ilver might need some seasoning before earning regular minutes, especially Hodges who hasn’t played basketball in 18 months due to COVID cancellations. Ilver, an Estonia native, is very skilled and has excellent size on the wing – he can shoot the crap out of the ball and should have a bright future at Wisconsin. Johnathan’s twin Jordan Davis, former walk-on Carter Gilmore, and UNLV preferred walk-on Isaac Lindsey will form the deeper foundation of the Badger bench.

One constant under Gard aside from the Swing offense has been his teams’ ability to defend. The Badgers have ranked worse than 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency just once in Gard’s 6-year tenure. Wisconsin is very disciplined on this end of the floor; they do a great job at staying in front of their man, keeping the ball away from the rim, and matching opposing teams’ physicality. A younger roster could lead to more breakdowns on this end, but the Badger defense should at least be respectable.

Bottom Line: This will be a transition year for Gard as he develops the next group of Badger greats. His team lacks proven talent, but there is potential at every position. If Hepburn or Neath can be serviceable at the point of attack, the Badgers should have enough size, burgeoning skill, and leadership to stay competitive in the middle of the Big Ten.

9. Iowa

Key Returners: Jordan Bohannon, Connor McCaffery, Keegan Murray, Patrick McCaffery, Joe Toussaint, Tony Perkins
Key Losses: Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp, CJ Frederick, Jack Nunge
Key Newcomers: Filip Rebraca (North Dakota), Payton Sandfort, Riley Mulvey

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year’s Iowa Hawkeye squad was by far the best in the Fran McCaffery era and arguably the best in program history. And yet, despite all its talent and regular season success, Iowa found itself exiting the NCAA Tournament early once again with a loss to Oregon in the second round. Winning in the Big Dance has eluded McCaffery his entire coaching career; in his 20+ year head coaching tenure McCaffery has never reached the Sweet Sixteen. Given the loss of the country’s best player in Luka Garza and two very underrated complementary pieces in Joe Wieskamp and CJ Frederick, the question in 2021-22 for Iowa isn’t whether it’ll reach the second weekend in March, but rather will it even reach the NCAA Tournament.

McCaffery’s Iowa teams are always elite on offense, but this year’s squad has the most uncertainty on this end in about a decade. In the past, Iowa has always had an heir apparent go-to scorer, but that role this season is murky at best. Last year’s offense played through Garza, and with Garza the past three seasons Iowa has ranked in the top 15 nationally in post-up rate. McCaffery has the track record to believe this season’s squad can be good on the offensive end, but it won’t sniff the level the 2020-21 squad played at. Last season’s offense was scary at times and looked borderline unstoppable: it had shooting, ball handling, a dominant scorer, and players that worked perfectly together. This year Iowa loses its best three outside shooters and seems in danger of succumbing to offensive stagnation or way too much reliance on Jordan Bohannon if its rising sophomores don’t step up to the level they need to.

Bohannon’s return for a 6th season is huge for an otherwise young team going through a transition period. He turned 24 this summer and brings a steady presence to the backcourt and much-needed leadership. Bohannon is already one of the most accomplished Hawkeyes in school history: he holds the school record for 3PM, assists, games played, and FT%. But he cannot be Iowa’s #1 option if the Hawkeyes are serious about making the NCAA Tournament. Bohannon is a truly great facilitator and a knockdown shooter (40% career 3P% on over 900 attempts), but he lacks the shot creation ability to be a high-volume scorer. Unfortunately for Iowa, there are rumors swirling that Bohannon will be moving to the 2-guard this season, taking him off the ball and inherently putting him in a more scoring-centric role. If that’s truly the case, Iowa’s offense could be headed for mediocrity.

So, who on this roster can step up into that all-important go-to scoring role? For my money, it’s sophomore Keegan Murray, a guy who I will be extremely high on all season long. Murray earned a spot on the Big Ten’s All-Freshman squad last season and passed the “Ky McKeon eye test” with flying colors. He glides up and down the floor and has that killer combination of size, athleticism, length, and skill that every player dreams about.

At the very least Murray shores up an Iowa defense that is likely to improve this season (he ranked 3rd in the Big Ten in block rate and racked up steals), but his ceiling is so much higher. He’ll be an everyday starter and has the ability to lead the offense from the wing or the 4-spot. A full offseason of practice should also do wonders for his quickly developing game. I’m excited to see what he can do this season.

Fran will also have his two sons, Connor and Patrick, back for another year. Connor McCaffery is a former walk-on who has started every single game over the past two seasons. He’s a quintessential glue guy who doesn’t score a whole lot or do anything flashy; he provides solid ball handling and passing and knows the role he plays on the team. Patrick McCaffery is Iowa’s second breakout candidate along with Murray. A former top 100 4-star recruit, McCaffery is a pure shooter and scorer who likely evolves into one of the Hawkeyes’ top offensive weapons this season. Fran has decisions to make on lineup composition, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Patrick occupy the starting 3-spot alongside Connor at the 2 and Murray at the 4. That lineup would give Iowa plenty of length and size, particularly on the perimeter.

As mentioned earlier, reports have stated Fran might opt to use Bohannon off the ball this season, which means 6’0” junior Joe Toussaint likely steps into the starting PG spot, a role he filled two seasons ago when Bohannon went down with injury. Inconsistency has plagued Toussaint during his 2-year career; at times he looks excellent, a guy who can attack the basket and score, at other times he’s a liability and a turnover machine. Perhaps Toussaint can improve his consistency this season as an upperclassman in a more defined role.

Rounding out the backcourt rotation will be two sophomores in Tony Perkins and Ahron Ulis. Perkins will certainly take on a larger role this season after playing 24 games as a freshman. He’s a slasher on offense and arguably the best perimeter defender on the roster. Ulis (Tyler’s bro) is a former 3-star PG who should see a little more time this season, but with Bohannon’s return his impact will be put on hold for another year.

McCaffery went to the transfer portal to help ease the loss of Garza in the frontcourt. Former North Dakota big Filip Rebraca, a 2nd Team All-Summit honoree last season, steps in to help fill the massive void left by the Naismith Player of the Year. Rebraca was by far the best player on a bad UND team and often carried his Hawks to respectable efforts. While he’s certainly not Luka Garza, Rebraca can provide post scoring, floor spacing, and defensive rebounding to an Iowa team in need of all three. He has even shown his ability to play against Power competition, scoring 23 points and grabbing 6 boards against Minnesota last year and going for 16 and 13 against Gonzaga two years ago.

Keegan’s twin, Kris Murray, will see a major uptick in his minutes this season. He’s a versatile scorer like his brother and could develop into a key player this season off the pine. Freshman wing Payton Sandfort has lots of range and plenty of length to be an impact player in the near future.

Freshmen center Riley Mulvey, a 6’11” 3-star product, offers rim protection once he fully develops. 6’11” sophomore Josh Ogundele will provide depth in the frontcourt.

Defense has been McCaffery’s Achilles Heel the past several seasons. Even his two excellent squads of 2020 and 2021 ranked 97th and 75th, respectively (KenPom). Unlike on offense where the Hawkeyes look to score quick and get out in transition, defensively they look to slow their opponent down and sag off into the key. Iowa’s defense has lacked aggressiveness over the years; it doesn’t force turnovers, it doesn’t effectively get out on spot-up shooters, and it doesn’t protect the rim or the glass. But there is reason to believe that Fran could have his best defensive unit since 2016. Iowa is longer and more athletic this season with the departures of Garza, Wieskamp, and Frederick and the minutes ascension of guys like the Murrays and Perkins.

Bottom Line: We’re going to see a very different Iowa team than we did last season. This year’s squad has less shooting and is without an automatic bucket inside. The Hawkeyes will need to scrap for wins in the Big Ten this season and rely more on defense than they have in years past. McCaffery has finished below .500 in the Big Ten only once in the past nine years. This team could fall down as far as 10th or 11th in the league, but there is a pretty secure floor that should prevent them from tumbling too far down the conference standings.

10. Rutgers

Key Returners: Ron Harper Jr., Geo Baker, Paul Mulcahy, Caleb McConnell, Clifford Omoruyi
Key Losses: Jacob Young, Myles Johnson, Montez Mathis
Key Newcomers: Aundre Hyatt (LSU), Ralph Agee (San Jose State), Jalen Miller

Lineup:

Outlook: Whatever attention Steve Pikiell is getting, it’s not enough. Words can hardly put into context the quality of job Pikiell has done at the helm of the Rutgers program. Last season was officially Rutgers’ first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991 (and he would’ve punched a bid in 2020 had it not been canceled). With its “upset” of Clemson in the first round the Scarlet Knights enjoyed their first Tourney win since 1983, and then they nearly upended Houston to cruise to the Sweet Sixteen. Pikiell has turned a laughingstock of a program into an annual Tourney threat and Big Ten bruiser in the thick of the league.

With Geo Baker’s decision to return to school for a 5th year, Rutgers has the pieces to compete for another Big Dance bid, but the problem is going to be depth. Pikiell’s starting five is talented and experienced, but only two players scheduled to come off the pine have seen significant court time in college.

Let’s start with the known commodities. Baker’s return means Rutgers has a bona fide leader at the point of attack, a 2020 Honorable Mention All-Big Ten selection, and a guy who can bail his team out late in the shot clock. While Baker has never been the picture of efficiency, he can score and has that elusive “clutch gene” so many players with they had.

Then there’s Ron Harper Jr. who was shot out of a cannon to start the 2020-21 campaign, averaging 23.4 PPG and 7.1 RPG over Rutgers’ first seven games (6-1 during that stretch) leading many to speculate whether he might be a National POY contender. But after missing a match against Purdue due to an ankle injury Harper just wasn’t the same: his shots weren’t falling, and he seemed less aggressive. Overall, it was a good season for the talented son of a former NBAer with the same moniker, as he earned a spot on the Big Ten’s All-Conference 3rd Team. This season Harper will be counted on to ascend into the unquestionable alpha on the squad. He has the talent, and his physicality and size are a nightmare for defenders to match up against as they attempt to keep him out of the lane.

Paul Mulcahy, Caleb McConnell, and Cliff Omoruyi round out the key returning players for the Knights and projected starters at the beginning of the year. Mulcahy is a reliable ball handler and excellent passer who knows his role and fills it perfectly. He was the only player aside from Oregon-bound Jacob Young to shoot over 31% from 3, and with Rutgers’ usual lack of shooting he’ll be counted on to be a dangerous spot-up threat. McConnell didn’t play his first game until January last season and was clearly not 100% for several games. He’s clearly talented but from a viewer’s perspective, I never felt comfortable when McConnell had the ball in his hands. He has a very unorthodox, almost “fish out of water” style that makes it look like he’s about to turn the ball over at any second. Defensively is where McConnell really can shine after leading the Big Ten in steal rate last season; he’s a versatile defender and has great size on the wing to guard multiple spots.

Omoruyi will be the main man in the middle this season with Myles Johnson heading out west to UCLA. His impact was very underrated last season, as evidenced by Rutgers’ 1-4 skid when he sat out and 6-0 run in games in which he started. While not quite the defender Johnson is (who is, really?), Omoruyi is still a good shot deterrer inside with his ridiculous length, and he offers a little more offensively with his ability to shoot out to the arc.

For much of the offseason the only other known entity on this roster was LSU transfer Aundre Hyatt, an undersized 6’5” power forward who started 15 games for the Tigers last season. What Hyatt lacks in height he makes up in girth, and his physicality and activeness on the boards should fit right in with the Pikiell way. Unfortunately, Hyatt won’t help solve Rutgers’ shooting issue, as he’s just a 26% career 3P shooter. Joining Hyatt late in the summer was San Jose State transfer Ralph Agee, a post-up threat with long arms and capable jumper out to 18 feet. He’ll provide depth to Rutgers’ unproven frontline.

Pikiell kept a short bench last season, but he’s thrown out deep rotations before at Rutgers. Given the lack of experience on his bench it’s likely he keeps another short rotation of seven or eight guys. Three players in particular to watch for this season are sophomores Jaden Jones, Mawot Mag, and Oskar Palmquist. Jones was a top 150 recruit in the class of 2021 who joined the Knights midway through last season. While he was a bit raw coming to college, his 6’8” frame on the wing can be extremely valuable on both ends of the floor. Look for a full offseason to do him some good in the developmental department.

Mag is another long wing who can actually step out and shoot. He’s skilled for his size and offers more two-way potential off the bench. Palmquist saw pockets of non-garbage time as a freshman and offers more shooting on the wing. He and Mag are big enough to slot into the 4-spot, which will be key given the lack of frontcourt depth sans Johnson.

Dean Reiber likely sees some courtesy minutes at the 5. Luke Nathan, a former walk-on, might be called upon if fouls or injuries rue their ugly heads. 3-star PG Jalen Miller is a definite contributor in a year or two and could even sneak some minutes in as a freshman behind Baker / Mulcahy.

Defense is going to be Rutgers’ bell cow this season, as it has been every year under Pikiell. The Knights ranked 16th in Adj. DE per KenPom last season and 6th the year before that. Even without Johnson this looks to be a top 25-caliber defensive squad. Rutgers was significantly better defensively when Johnson was on the floor versus when he sat from a PPP perspective (0.977 PPP v. 1.031 PPP allowed, unadjusted, per Hoop-Explorer), but those splits are similar with Omoruyi (0.955 v. 1.017 PPP unadjusted).

Offense will likely continue to be a struggle for Rutgers. The Knights have ranked in the top 100 of KenPom’s Adj. OE the past two seasons but have never been elite under Pikiell. Poor outside shooting has been the main culprit, and the Knights have been forced to play bully ball on the glass and get to the foul line in order to score points. Harper and Baker can both score one-on-one, but it likely won’t be enough to significantly improve on last year’s performance. Pikiell has been leaning into a more uptempo style the past two seasons, which could help his team get out of the stagnation of its halfcourt offense.

Bottom Line: Rutgers should be right in the middle of the Big Ten this season, as it has the past two seasons. Without Johnson and Young in the fold, the Knights will likely take a step back but not so far as to fall out of NCAAT at-large consideration.

11. Penn State

Key Returners: Seth Lundy, John Harrar, Myles Dread, Sam Sessoms
Key Losses: Myreon Jones, Izaiah Brockington, Jamari Wheeler, Trent Buttrick
Key Newcomers: Jalen Pickett (Siena), Jaheam Cornwall (Gardner-Webb), Greg Lee (Western Michigan), Jevonnie Scott (JUCO), Jalanni White (Canisius)

Lineup:

Outlook: 2020-21 was a tough season for everyone, but Penn State’s was made worse when former head coach Pat Chambers resigned in October following an investigation into his conduct. Jim Ferry, a former Duquesne and LIU coach, took over last year in Chambers’s stead and actually helped his Lions exceed preseason expectations from an analytical perspective (KenPom #63 to #40). Ferry clearly wasn’t the long-term solution, though, and this offseason PSU brought in Micah Shrewsberry, a former Brad Stevens assistant at Butler and with the Celtics who also worked under Matt Painter at Purdue. Pedigree-wise you can’t do much better than that, and Shrewsberry appears to have a ton of positive energy to bring to the PSU program. He’ll try to build the Nittany Lions back into a NCAAT contender; excluding 2020’s presumed 6-seed, PSU hasn’t been to the Dance since 2011.

There are no freshmen on the Penn State roster, an oddity for any college basketball team, and there is little to no depth past the 8th man in the rotation. Shrewsberry will be working with a short-handed lineup, but his top eight guys are all upperclassmen.

Remarkably, three starters return from last year’s squad despite the high degree of turnover and coaching swap. Seth Lundy, John Harrar, and Myles Dread, all of whom multi-year starters, will be looked upon as leaders. Lundy came off the bench the second half of last season due in part to inconsistent play. He exploded in several games last year, scoring 31 against Maryland, 26 against Ohio State, and 32 against VCU, but also turned several single-digit point performances and had a few zero-point outings. He’ll be counted on as PSU’s go-to scorer in 2021-22; he’s extremely talented and can play the 3 or 4.

Harrar was an Honorable Mention All-Big Ten selection last season and was arguably the best rebounder in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country. He led the conference in FT rate and proved to be a reliable post scorer in a league full of frontcourt monsters.

Despite Harrar’s nose for the ball and leadership qualities he really isn’t a good defender and struggled to protect the rim and shut-down post-up opportunities in 2020-21. PSU has zero depth at the 5 this season, so this will continue to be an area of weakness.

Dread started eight of PSU’s final nine games last season and functions primarily as a spot-up shooter (130 3PA v. 26 2PA last year). His versatility and strong frame on the defensive end make him an ideal 3-and-D guy to plug into the lineup.

Former Binghamton transfer Sam Sessoms was essentially a 6th starter last year and was the highest used player for the Lions when on the floor. After racking up points at Binghamton Sessoms proved he could score against Big Ten competition, but not without some inefficiency. He’ll need to rediscover his outside shot this season after shooting 28% from deep last year despite 37% as a freshman. Sessoms is best off ball screens where he can knife into the lane and create his own shot or set up shots for others. He’ll likely resume this 6th man role with the arrival of some talented transfers.

PSU’s only other two scholarship returners are sophomores Dallion Johnson and Caleb Dorsey, both of whom might be called upon for more minutes this year. Johnson played just 15 minutes total last season and will serve as wing depth this year. Dorsey can shoot and play the 3 or 4.

Shrewberry’s transfer class brings great intrigue and potential to make the Lions far more competitive than many expect. Jalen Pickett (Siena) and Jaheam Cornwall (Gardner-Webb) will bolster the backcourt while Greg Lee (Western Michigan), Jevonnie Scott (JUCO), and Jalanni White (Canisius) will enhance the frontcourt.

Pickett, a three-time 1st Team All-MAAC performer and the league’s Player of the Year in 2020, is extremely talented but a player who may struggle with motivation. He legitimately looked disinterested at Siena last season, often going half-speed and having a “down year” despite his conference accolades. A 36% career 3P shooter and 6’4” PG, Pickett has all the tools to be an effective Big Ten guard on both ends of the floor – perhaps a step-up in league will help his focus.

Cornwall was a 1st Team All-Big South honoree last season and holds a ridiculous 42% career 3P clip on over 500 attempts. He’ll likely start alongside Pickett off the ball where his role will be score, score, and score some more. His quickness and shooting ability should translate to the Power 6 level.

Lee earned Honorable Mention All-MAC honors in 2020-21 and was greatly improved last season as the best player on a bad team. He’s a good rebounder and facilitator from the post and brings length, athleticism and skill to the frontcourt. Given the lack of depth up front, Lee will be called upon to play some 5 in Harrar’s stead. Scott averaged 11.5 PPG and 5.6 RPG last season for a very good JUCO. He’s super athletic (read: dunks on people), long, and has range past the 3-point arc. White gobbles boards and protects the rim.

It’s hard to glean what Shrewsberry will do offensively. PSU was uptempo under Chambers and Ferry the past few years, but Shrew coached for slower teams at Butler and Purdue (albeit the NBA experience may influence his style more). Shrewsberry is known across the country as an “offensive guy”, and he said on the Centre Daily Times podcast that he plans on implementing a more “read and react” offense versus structured half-court sets. Given his lack of bodies in the frontcourt we will likely see PSU run a lot of 4-guard lineups with spacing for days around Harrar in the middle. PSU fans hope Harrar can help maintain the Lions’ reputation as a physical, board-crashing squad that’s a pain to play against.

Defensively PSU was the best in the Big Ten last year at forcing turnovers and 2nd best at controlling the glass. Unfortunately, the Lions were dead last in the Big Ten in 2PFG% defense (KenPom) and ranked 301st in FG% allowed near the rim (Hoop-Math). PSU allowed the 35th highest rate of post-ups last year and ranked 331st in PPP allowed against them, per Synergy. Clearly interior defense needs to improve, but while Lee and Scott add athleticism up front, this unit still severely lacks size.

Bottom Line: Penn State is going to be a scrappy team once again this season. It has plenty of talent to beat bigger name opponents but lacks the depth to sustain competitiveness and win enough to finish near the top of the league. Shrewsberry by all accounts is a great hire, and there’s reason to believe he has the Nittany Lions competing for Tourney berths again in the near future.

12. Northwestern

Key Returners: Chase Audige, Boo Buie, Pete Nance, Ryan Young, Robbie Beran, Ty Berry, Ryan Greer
Key Losses: Miller Kopp, Anthony Gaines
Key Newcomers: Elyjah Williams (Fairleigh Dickinson), Casey Simmons, Brooks Barnhizer, Julian Roper II

Lineup:

Outlook: Northwestern had one of the weirdest seasons within the already weird 2020-21 COVID season. The Purple Cats, not expected to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid, were an unlucky bounce or two against Pitt from starting the year 7-0. Three straight wins over Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State to start the Big Ten conference schedule catapulted Northwestern to 19th in the AP poll and left many scratching their heads and saying, “what the hell is happening?”

Then the course corrected. NU lost its next 13 games, bringing balance back to the universe. All was right with the world. Chris Collins’s crew did cap off the regular season with three more victories for good measure, putting his Cats a half game ahead of Minnesota for 12th in the league.

Collins enters his 9th season at the helm of NU, and one must wonder how many more does he get? He’s continued to bring in high-level recruits to a school normally lacking in the talent department, but we’re now five years removed from NU’s magical 2017 Tourney squad and its last over-.500 Big Ten showing. With only two departures from last year, Collins should have his best roster since that 2017 squad. If everything comes together it’s not bat shit crazy to think the Cats can make a dark horse run to the Dance.

Northwestern’s greatest strength this year is its frontcourt, which is shaping up to be one of the deepest in the Big Ten. Four forwards with starting experience will vie for playing time, each of whom bring something meaningful to the table.

Pete Nance, a former 4-star recruit and the highest rated prospect in Northwestern history, enters his senior season looking to take another leap forward on the productivity scale. Nance has always possessed clear potential, and in the past when watching him play I’ve found myself scratching my head and asking, “why isn’t he doing more?” He has the talent to be the focal point of NU’s offense, but his assertiveness has been lacking thus far during his three-year career. Last season seemed to be a turning point, as Nance finally produced an efficient year and started to dominate more on post-ups and let his versatility shine. Even though growth tends to slow as a player enters his senior year, it’s highly possible we see Nance take another step and evolve into a borderline All-Conference player.

Collins has a few options to pair with Nance up front. A more traditional look would pit Ryan Young at the 5 and Nance at the 4. Young started just five games last season after starting every single one his freshman year. He’s a beast on the glass and NU will often play through him on the block. The best way to describe Young is “bruiser”; he bangs in the paint and possesses excellent footwork and patience when he has the ball. Fellow junior Robbie Beran, the 3rd highest rated recruit in school history, is more of a finesse player, a stretch-4 type who allows NU to play five-out when sharing the floor with Nance.

Then there’s FDU transfer Elyjah Williams, a 3rd Team All-NEC honoree last season and one of the more unique players in college basketball. Williams has an enormous, muscle-bound frame and is as physical as they come, but he is also pretty quick for a “big guy” and is comfortable shaking and baking at the top of the key. His outside shot is developing (42% on 50 3PA last year) and he’s a versatile defender, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Collins throw out a “jumbo” look of two forwards plus Williams at the 3.

NU’s backcourt features good continuity and some promising newcomers. Chase Audige and Boo Buie are both returning starters and candidates to lead the Cats in scoring. Audige came in from William & Mary and became the Cats’ highest used player. He’s a streaky shooter who can get hot in a hurry, like when he dropped 25 points against Ohio State, or completely disappear, like when he scored 6 points against Iowa four days later. Audige’s two-way ability makes him arguably the most valuable player on the roster; he’s a lock-down defender and versatile scorer on the other end.

Speaking of streaky, Buie had one of the strangest string of games of last season (fitting in nicely with the team at large). He was a man possessed during NU’s 3-game Big Ten start, dropping 30 points on Michigan State and averaging 18.3 PPG. Then he scored two total points over the next three games and went four straight games without a made 2PFG. Despite his streakiness, Buie was incredibly valuable to NU, who had been struggling to find a reliable point guard ever since Bryant McIntosh graduated many moons ago. Buie is a sure-handed lead guard who posted a relatively low TO rate while ranking 4th in the Big Ten in assist rate. He’s due for another leap this season as he enters his upperclassman years.

Sophomore Ty Berry and senior Ryan Greer return to provide depth on the wing. Berry should compete for starts after a solid freshman campaign; he’s primarily a catch-and-shoot threat.

Newcomers Casey Simmons, Brooks Barnhizer, and Julian Roper II all have opportunities to carve out time at the 2 or 3, especially with Miller Kopp bolting for Indiana and Anthony Gaines heading to Siena. Simmons is ranked as a 4-star prospect by some outlets and is a lanky twig of a wing with gobs of potential to turn into a future All-Conference caliber player. He glides up and down the floor and has impressive length for his position. Barnhizer is a high-basketball-IQ wing with the physical tools to make an impact on day one. He’ll provide shooting and hard-nosed driving to the offense. Roper II is the most dynamic and athletic of the three; he’s fearless attacking the hoop and is a good shooter to boot – a classic “scoring” guard.

We know what to expect from Collins’s offense. His teams do not crash the glass (335th in OR% last year) and instead prioritize getting back in transition. NU is usually a jump-shot reliant team, but that could shift slightly with the balance of power tilting towards the frontcourt. Presumably, NU will continue the uptempo trend we saw last season, as the Cats ranked in the top 200 of offensive APL (65th per KenPom) for the first time in Collins’s tenure. And in true NU fashion, we should see excellent ball movement and unselfish play within the motion attack; Collins’s squads have consistently ranked among the nation’s leaders in assist rate.

Collins usually has strong defensive teams, ranking in the top 40 of KenPom’s Adj. DE four times over his career. Last year the Cats used a soft non-con schedule to boost their overall defensive ranking to 37th but finished 13th among teams in the Big Ten. NU kept opposing squads away from the rim, ranking 39th in FGA% allowed near the cup per Hoop-Math, and ranking 10th in Shot Quality’s defensive metrics, meaning the Cats forced opponents to take tough shots. NU has plenty of length, continuity, and experience to once again be strong on this end.

Bottom Line: This should be one of Collins’s better Northwestern squads. Unfortunately, when the highest you’ve finished is 38th and have ranged from 68th to 134th the other seven years, there’s a cap on your overall ceiling. The Big Ten will be a blood bath once again. NU can conceivably be among the teams clawing and scrapping in the middle, but it still seems to be at most a bottom-half group.

13. Nebraska

Key Returners: Trey McGowens, Lat Mayen, Kobe Webster, Derrick Walker, Eduardo Andre, Trevor Lakes
Key Losses: Teddy Allen, Dalano Banton, Shamiel Stevenson, Thorir Thorbjarnarson, Yvan Ouedraogo
Key Newcomers: Alonzo Verge (Arizona State), CJ Wilcher (Xavier), Keon Edwards (DePaul), Bryce McGowens, Keisei Tominaga (JUCO), Wilhelm Breidenbach

Lineup:

Outlook: Fred Hoiberg endured another tough year in Lincoln, but his Huskers were vastly improved from his inaugural 2019-20 squad. Hoiberg’s record at the helm of Nebraska isn’t pretty through two seasons (14-45 (5-34)), but he has visibly improved the talent level on the roster, slowly building the program back to competitiveness. The Huskers dealt with a rough COVID stoppage in 2020-21 forcing them to play 12 games in 24 days in February. Despite this, Nebraska gave several big-time Big Ten opponents all they could handle before (usually) succumbing to defeat. 2021-22 offers new hope. Hoiberg has a solid core returning and adds a boatload of talent from the transfer portal and HS ranks. He’ll have his best team of his 3-year tenure.

Hoiberg’s offensive style hasn’t changed from his Iowa State days. His teams play extremely uptempo, looking to score in transition any chance they get. Last season Nebraska ranked 19th nationally in offensive APL and was the fastest offensive and overall team in the Big Ten from a tempo perspective. In true former NBA-coach fashion, Hoiberg also values the three-ball. The Huskers ranked in the top 50 in 3PA rate last year but shot just 33% from behind the arc.

Lack of frontcourt size crushed the Huskers last season on both ends of the floor. Post-play was nearly non-existent, rebounding was a chore, and rim protection was severely lacking. Nebraska sagged on the defensive and played a fair amount of 2-3 zone in an effort to combat the superior size of most Big Ten opponents. While the Huskers were successful at keeping opponents away from the rim (5th nationally in % attempts allowed near the bucket, per Hoop-Math), they ranked just 333rd in 3PA rate allowed. With a bolstered front line and impressive length on the perimeter, the Huskers should be an improved defensive squad in 2021-22.

Talent and pedigree dominate this roster, particularly in the backcourt. Hoiberg has six or seven guys he can comfortably throw at the 1-3 spots, each of whom have either shown they can play at a Power 6 level or come with high recruiting accolades. All eyes will be on the Brothers McGowens, who will be counted on for scoring and leadership with the departures of Dalano Banton and Teddy Allen.

Trey McGowens enters his 4th collegiate season after being thrust into a high-usage role last year following a 2-year stint with Pitt. McGowens forced the issue a lot offensively, leading to his poor 89.8 o-rating, but he did shoot 38% from deep, by far the best clip of his career. He’ll be counted on to be one of Nebraska’s primary scorers; he can get to the bucket off the bounce, create for others, and handle point duties if needed.

Defensively, McGowens has proven his ability to defend on the ball, ranking in the top ten in steal rate within his conference (ACC and Big Ten) each of his first three seasons.

Trey’s brother, Bryce McGowens, is the top-rated recruit in Nebraska history and seems poised to step into a starting role right away. A 5-star, top 25 player in the class of 2021, McGowens is a long, athletic, super-skilled wing who can score from anywhere and shoot the 3. If he’s able to contribute at an elite level immediately, Nebraska’s ceiling starts to touch at-large territory.

Hoiberg made a big splash via the transfer portal (as he’s been known to do) by bringing in Arizona State guard Alonzo Verge days after Banton’s decision to turn pro. Verge is expected to run some point for the Huskers, which should be seen as a double-edged sword. On one side, Verge is very talented; he’s a good ball handler; he’s even a good passer. Scoring comes naturally to him, and he can do it very well.

On the other side, Verge is an extremely high-volume shooter and has never met a shot he doesn’t think he can make. ASU was not a good basketball team last year and some of that was due to its guards being focused on “getting theirs” instead of playing team basketball. If Verge wasn’t afraid to be high-usage in a backcourt featuring Remy Martin and Josh Christopher, he won’t hesitate to do the same alongside the McGowens bros. Verge should thrive in Hoiberg’s uptempo system (ASU was similar), but Nebraska fans should know they are getting one of the streakiest shooters in the country and a “feast or famine” lead guard.

Hoiberg has plenty of options to bring off the bench in the backcourt. Kobe Webster was a dominant Summit League player at WIU and filled a valuable spot-up role for the Huskers last season. He’s the best shooter on the roster (besides this next guy) and brings experience as he enters his 5th season. Keisei Tominaga is a top ten recruit JUCO recruit who earned NJCAA 2nd Team All-America honors with Ranger College. He shot 48% from 3 over two seasons at Ranger and needs almost zero space to get his gorgeous lefty shot off his hand and into the hoop.

Xavier transfer CJ Wilcher and DePaul transfer Keon Edwards will both be in the mix for wing minutes. Wilcher is a former 4-star top 120 recruit and will bring size and shooting to the perimeter. Edwards is a former 4-star top 100 recruit who, even though he barely saw the floor with the Demons, possesses immense potential with his 6’7” athletic frame. Returning wing Trevor Lakes might find it tough to get on the floor this season; he’s primarily a spot-up threat. 3-star freshman CG Quaran McPherson has good size but likely doesn’t contribute much in year one.

Nebraska was bullied in the paint last season; it had arguably the thinnest frontcourt in the Big Ten, which is a recipe for disaster given the level of big men across the league. The Huskers will still be on the “smaller” side this season, but they’ll be deeper and better equipped to fight off bigger conference foes.

Lat Mayen and Derrick Walker will start at the 4 and 5, respectively. Mayen blossomed as a sophomore after barely playing for TCU as a freshman. He started every game last year and is a deadly floor spacer at 6’9”. Walker, formerly of Tennessee, missed all of 2019-20 with a knee injury and then sat the first 11 games of last season due to suspension. Despite standing just 6’8” Walker holds his own in the paint and on the glass with his strength and activeness.

Freshmen center Wilhelm Breidenbach, a 4-star top 100 recruit and the 3rd highest ranked prospect in Husker history, will almost certainly play an immediate role in first season. He is a very skilled big man and will provide shooting and shot-blocking in addition to pure length and size. Eduardo Andre saw run out of necessity last season, proving to be a decent rebounder while on the floor. He’s mobile and long, but still a bit raw offensively. Freshman 7-footer Oleg Kojenets projects as a rim protector down the road but likely spends most of 2021-22 on the pine.

Bottom Line: There’s no questioning the talent on Hoiberg’s roster this season; Nebraska has legitimate players 2-deep at nearly every position. But, how will the pieces fit together? Can Verge co-exist with the other guards looking for their own shots? And though the frontcourt is better, is it good enough to propel the Huskers to the middle of the league? This program feels a year or two away from Tourney contention, but rest assured Nebraska is no pushover this season and every bit capable of winning any game it enters.

Tier 4

14. Minnesota

Key Returners: Isaiah Ihnen***, Eric Curry
Key Losses: Marcus Carr, Liam Robbins, Jamal Mashburn, Brandon Johnson, Both Gach, Gabe Kalscheur, Tre Williams
Key Newcomers: Jamison Battle (George Washington), Payton Willis (Charleston), Luke Loewe (William & Mary), EJ Stephens (Lafayette), Sean Sutherlin (New Hampshire), Charlie Daniels (Stephen F. Austin), Parker Fox (DII)***, Treyton Thompson, Abdoulaye Thiam (JUCO), Daniel Ogele (DII)

*** Likely out for the year with injury

Lineup:

Outlook: The home and away splits for Minnesota last season were shocking. “Home-a-sota” was a juggernaut to start the year, winning 11 straight games and 13 of its first 14 contests inside the Barn, even earning a #16 ranking in the AP poll. The Road Gophers, though, were another story. Minnesota was 0-10 on the road last season and 1-9 against the spread and ranked 342nd in Haslametrics’ “away from home” ratings. Overall, the Gophers squandered their hot start and dropped their final seven games in Big Ten play, finishing 13th in the conference after being expected by many to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid. As a result, head coach Richard Pitino was fired after eight seasons that included one winning B1G season, two Tourney bids, and an overall conference record of 54-96. In his place steps Ben Johnson, a 40-year old rising star in the coaching world who formerly played for the Gophers under Dan Monson, served as an assistant under Pitino, and spent the last three years on the bench at Xavier under Travis Steele. He inherits a completely barren roster and will lead a team expected to finish in the Big Ten basement.

Only two players return from last year’s roster. Johnson brings in one freshman, six DI transfers, a JUCO transfer, and two DII transfers to fill out his inaugural squad. Isaiah Ihnen is one of two returners, a 6’9” forward who hails from Germany and who was looking to step up into a starting role this season until he tragically tore his knee in practice this summer. Ihnen is a talented player and one who Johnson no doubt was counting on to provide major minutes. Shortly after Ihnen’s injury Minnesota signed DII transfer Daniel Ogele, a 6’7” power forward who started his career with Navy. Ogele is an aggressive rebounder who will likely be forced into playing time given the Gophers’ lack of frontcourt depth.

Mercifully, Eric Curry opted to come back for his extra year giving the Gophers a tad bit of continuity up front, that is if he can stay healthy. Curry has dealt with lingering injuries the past three seasons and was set to join the Gopher coaching staff on the bench before deciding to return to the court.

Freshman center Treyton Thompson and SFA transfer Charlie Daniels are the only other two “bigs” on the roster. Thompson, a 3-star (former 4-star) recruit, weighs only 190 pounds but might be asked to bang with the big bodies of the Big Ten. He’s a skilled frontcourt player who can shoot the 3, block shots, and pass but his lack of strength is a real concern heading into the season considering the very real possibility that he’ll need to play major minutes. Daniels started just three games for SFA and is limited offensively, but he is an active forward who hustles his butt off and makes key “garbage” plays. Like Thompson, Daniels is going to find a spot in the frontcourt rotation by necessity.

GW transfer Jamison Battle is big enough to get away with playing some 4, but he’s a natural wing who will be counted on to lead the Gophers in scoring. Battle was a 3rd Team All-A10 selection last season and led his conference in eFG% while pouring in over 17 PPG. He’ll be a guy Johnson can play through on offense.

The Gophers would’ve had another important frontcourt piece in DII transfer Parker Fox, but he tore his ACL over the offseason and is expected to be out for most of the year. Fox, a Minnesota native, is a freak athlete who scored over 22 PPG and grabbed nearly 10 RPG at his previous collegiate stop.

Minnesota’s backcourt is deep, but it lacks Power 6 experience. Payton Willis, formerly of Vanderbilt and Minnesota, comes over from Charleston after starting every game for the Cougars and shooting over 41% from 3. He’s logged plenty of minutes and starts in the SEC and Big Ten and should be up to the competition. Given a lack of “true” point guard options, Willis may take on primary ball handling responsibilities. If not, then it will be up to William & Mary import Luke Loewe to pace the Gopher attack. Loewe earned a spot on the All-CAA 2nd Team last season and was a 2x All-Defense member in the league. Like Willis, Loewe is a good shooter who can handle the ball when called upon. The question will be can his game translate to the Power 6? Loewe played against just one power team last year (Virginia), and managed just 5 points on 2/10 shooting. We recently saw another W&M up-transfer, Justin Pierce, struggle at UNC a few years ago.

Two more backcourt transfers, Eylijah “EJ” Stephens and Sean Sutherlin, will also play key roles in the Minnesota rotation this season. Stephens comes by way of Lafayette where he was an on/off starter, scorer, and capable perimeter defender. Like Loewe, questions abound about Stephens’s ability to play in the Big Ten – he saw no games against Power 6 teams last season and has only played against three his entire 4-year career. Sutherlin was New Hampshire’s best player two years ago but missed the entirety of last season due to a torn shoulder labrum. He’s a fierce rebounder and a hard-nosed scorer capable of playing multiple positions and being a “utility player” on the court.

Abdoulaye Thiam, a JUCO transfer, is another player to watch out for in Johnson’s backcourt. Thiam was a 1st Team All-Conference player at his school as a freshman, averaging 15 PPG and shooting a scorching 48.5% from deep on 130 3PA. His shooting and athleticism should get him on the court this season. If things get dire, Johns Hopkins transfer and walk-on Joey Kern could see the floor in a spot-up shooting role.

New coaches always bring intrigue as to what style they will play. Minnesota was largely a jump-shot reliant team last season (ranked 336th in FGA% near rim per Hoop-Math), and Marcus Carr did everything for them offensively. Creation is a major question mark on this roster, as is the aforementioned size dilemma. With no true point guard or true big man, Minnesota could be exposed on the offensive and defensive end of the floor. Only Jamison Battle seems to be a “sure” scorer heading into the season, and even with Liam Robbins and Curry in the fold last year the Gophers were routinely brutalized at the rim. 2021-22 could be a bloodbath.

Bottom Line: All signs point to Minnesota being one of the worst Power 6 teams in the country this season. Ben Johnson will need to be patient as he attempts to bring his program back to a level capable of competing near the upper half of the Big Ten.