-Jim Root
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jahvon Quinerly, R Jr., Alabama
Coach of the Year: John Calipari, Kentucky
Newcomer of the Year: Kellan Grady, R Sr., Kentucky
Freshman of the Year: Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
Tier 1
1. Kentucky
See full preview here: #4 in our Top 40 countdown
2. Alabama
See full preview here: #8 in our Top 40 countdown (posted prior to Nimari Burnett’s injury)
3. Tennessee
See full preview here: #13 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 2
4. Arkansas
See full preview here: #24 in our Top 40 countdown
5. Auburn
See full preview here: #22 in our Top 40 countdown (posted prior to Allen Flanigan’s injury)
6. LSU
See full preview here: #30 in our Top 40 countdown
7. Florida
See full preview here: #37 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 3
8. Mississippi St.
Key Returners: Iverson Molinar, Tolu Smith, Derek Fountain, Javian Davis-Fleming
Key Losses: D.J. Stewart (pro), Abdul Ado (transfer), Deivon Smith (transfer), Jalen Johnson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Garrison Brooks (UNC), D.J. Jeffries (Memphis), Shakeel Moore (N.C. State), Rocket Watts (Michigan St.), Camryn Carter, KeShawn Murphy, Alden Applewhite
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s hard to know what to make of the Ben Howland era in Starkville. On one hand, this is the best the program has been over a six-year stretch since prime Rick Stansbury from 2000-05, with three 20-win seasons and the Bulldogs’ first NCAA Tournament bid since 2009. Avoiding the lows of the Rick Ray debacle is certainly a better place to be:
On the other hand, though, Howland’s only tournament team got upset in the first round by 12-seed Liberty, and the trend line on the far right of the above graph is headed the wrong way. He may not quite be on the hot seat, but he’s getting paid quite handsomely to be a below-.500 SEC coach (51-57 over six years).
Given the talent that Howland brought in this offseason, that makes this a pivotal year for his Bulldogs. Last year’s squad lacked depth and experience, too often relying on Iverson Molinar and the departed D.J. Stewart to produce magic out of thin air. With added size and prominent *names* in the college hoops world, the Bulldogs have become a trendy sleeper pick, and while this roster does have the right kind of pieces to play Howland’s preferred style, some inherent flaws may undermine that potential.
Let’s start with the positives, because hey, glass half full right? If you’re playing this Bulldogs squad, you might want to throw on some padding, because you’re in for a fight on the offensive glass. Nightly double-double threat Tolu Smith is back as a physically imposing anchor, and the addition of Garrison Brooks from North Carolina gives Howland a legitimate Bash Brother duo in the frontcourt. Former Alabama transfer Javian Davis provides depth, though he struggled last year, and incoming freshman Keshawn Murphy is a physical specimen in his own right. Mississippi State has ranked 10th and 4th in offensive rebound rate the last two years, and another top 10 finish looks quite likely. (Note: Smith will miss some time in November after September foot surgery)
That size should also be a terrific foundation for the Bulldogs’ defense. Howland’s compact man-to-man limited rim attempts at an elite rate (28.2% of shots per Hoop-Math, 14th-lowest rate in the country), so even without the threat of Abdul Ado’s shot-blocking, getting easy buckets against this defense will remain a challenge. Transfers DJ Jeffries and Shakeel Moore are terrific individual defenders, reinforcing the Bulldogs on the wing and in the backcourt, respectively, with Jeffries’ versatility giving Howland a ton of flexibility with both his lineups and matchups. Moore’s ferocity as an on-ball defender allows him to “cut the head off the snake” against teams heavily reliant on point guard creation, and he should only get better as he matures and further takes advantage of his incredible quickness.
The final definitive strength of this squad lies in its incredibly talented alpha scorer, Molinar. He was a revelation last year, blossoming from a solid role player as a freshman into a high-usage star, using his feathery jumper to destroy foes who did not close down his airspace:
Mississippi State uses pick-and-rolls more as a route to facilitate ball movement than to score directly, but Molinar’s aggression and finishing skills (82nd percentile nationally as a PnR scorer, per Synergy) have opened that up as a dangerous outlet.
Unfortunately, Molinar himself is a solid place to transition to discussing the issues with this Bulldog team. He’s not a pure point guard, so unless Moore or 4-star freshman Camryn Carter is ready to take over that role for large portions of the game, the Bulldogs may continue to struggle with turnover issues. The Bulldogs tumbled to 318th in turnover rate last year, and folks, you can’t offensive rebound on a turnover! Simply getting more shots up on the rim would provide more fruitful scoring opportunities via the glass.
The other problem with having shaky guard play is generating quality shots in the half court. Missisippi State took the 8th-highest share of mid-range jumpers in the entire country last year, and even though a guy like Molinar was actually fairly effective there at 43.5%, that’s a tough way to sustain an offense over a huge sample size. Brooks is a 6’10 big man who took 63.2% of his shots from the mid-range (hence shooting 47% from inside the arc despite his size), so he may exacerbate that problem, not alleviate it.
Adding a guy like Rocket Watts to that offensive cauldron could have shaky results. He’s a talented player, but he’s primarily looking for his own shot and has a major tendency to take contested jumpers, and that has manifested in catastrophically poor efficiency through his first two college campaigns. Going to another squad with iffy point guard play is not going to cure his issues, and neither is joining one of the worst jump shooting teams in the country. Per Synergy, Mississippi State ranked 341st in spot up attempt frequency and 334th in efficiency on such plays; defenses can get entirely too comfortable collapsing into the paint on drives. Jeffries and Moore are a low-volume shooters, and Watts is now at 26.9% from deep on over 200 attempts, so the newcomers aren’t going to do much to change that.
Sophomore Derek Fountain showed some real promise as a stretch big last season, starting 10 of the final 12 games and burying 38.5% of his triples, so he could force Brooks or Smith to come off the bench in order to give the Dogs some spacing. Once he got into the rotation in February, the splits with and without him were startling:
Howland may be in a bind with how to get him more minutes, but if he’s making that much of an impact on winning, he needs to play.
Bottom Line: Adding highly recognizable names like Watts and Brooks has intrigued many a pundit, but both players’ former fanbases would happily admit that they underperformed in 2020-21, so their reputations may outstrip their production at this point. Jeffries and Moore may actually be the more valuable additions, and if Mississippi State can build an identity around a fearsome defense, they could rise up the SEC standings and become a comfortable at-large team. The offensive question marks are alarming, though, and without clear answers to the shot selection and ball control issues, that end of the floor could limit the upside here.
9. Mississippi
Key Returners: Jarkell Joiner, Matthew Murrell, Luis Rodriguez, Robert Allen
Key Losses: Devontae Shuler, KJ Buffen (transfer), Romello White
Key Newcomers: Daeshun Ruffin, Nysier Brooks (Miami FL), Jaemyn Brakefield (Duke), Tye Fagan (Georgia), James White
Lineup:
Outlook: After being narrowly left out of the 2021 NCAA Tournament (per the Selection Committee, Mississippi was the fourth team out), Kermit Davis’ Rebels have now missed the field in two straight years, a concerning trajectory for a tenure that started out promising. The Weave (particularly Matt and I) has collectively beat the drum for Kermit and Co., but they have fallen short of our expectations for consecutive seasons, and we’ve backed off our optimism somewhat as a result. That’s usually when teams finally deliver on their potential, so congratulations in advance, Rebel faithful!
Without marked improvements offensively, though, this assessment will likely be a fair one. Last year’s Rebels were one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 312th in both 3PA rate and 3P%; 330 teams scored more points from beyond the arc than Mississippi did. Eschewing the trey ball led to a slew of mid-range jumpers (14th-highest rate in the country), and it’s almost impossible to generate consistently efficient offense with that kind of shot distribution. Departed point guard Devontae Shuler was solid in that range, but guys like Jarkel Joiner and Matthew Murrell massively underperformed expectations in terms of shot-making.
Without Shuler, the keys to the offense likely pass to true freshman Daeshun Ruffin, a tiny but lethal lead ball-handler best known for his jump shooting (and never-ending swagger). He is especially deadly using his pull up, and though that leans into the Rebels’ overall issues, that can work if Joiner, Murrell, Luis Rodriguez, and Duke transfer Jaemyn Brakefield can do a better job of spacing the floor. Kermit’s teams never take a high volume of threes, but most of his squads at Middle Tennessee and his first one in Oxford knocked shots down at high rates. Murrell and Joiner need to have bounce-back seasons – especially Murrell, whose recruiting pedigree portended far better efficiency than an effective field goal percentage below 40%. Georgia transfer Tye Fagan adds depth and SEC experience, but his value comes as a clever cutter, finisher, and transition scorer, not via shooting.
The Rebels became less ball screen-reliant without Breein Tyree in the backcourt, but it’s still the predominant way that they’ll generate offense, and Ruffin’s quickness should make that action a pain for defenses. Plus, he will often have a dynamic finisher as his screener, with Nysier Brooks coming in from Miami (FL). While playing on a massively banged up roster, Brooks managed to rank in the 96th percentile as a roll man, per Synergy, throwing down finishes like this when the coverage left him too much room:
The Hurricanes’ offense was similarly heavy on pick-and-roll, so Brooks should be relatively comfortable transitioning into the system.
The wild card for the Mississippi attack is Brakefield, an incredibly talented lefty who struggled to find playing time behind Matthew Hurt last year. He’s a bit of a streaky perimeter shooter, but the threat of that shot is enough to open up his off-the-bounce game as a matchup problem for slower or smaller opponents. He’ll have to beat out Robert Allen for minutes, but the former Samford transfer did not make much of an impact aside from his offensive rebounding.
Though the offense had plenty of issues, the Rebels’ defense nearly carried them to an at-large bid, locking down opponents via a mixture of zone and man. Kermit has always changed defenses effectively, but with a plethora of length along the backside of the defense, the zone looks became especially stingy (0.737 points per possession, per Synergy). Brooks should fill the Romello White void nicely in the paint, and with Allen, Brakefield, Rodriguez, and Austin Crowley all being impactful defenders, the zones should continue to bother opponents by forcing tough jumpers and challenging everything at the rim:
That’s Allen making life miserable on prolific bucket-getter Trendon Watford out of a matchup zone look, and many other Rebel opponents had the same kind of issues scoring inside.
Having such a stout paint crew emboldened the Rebels’ perimeter defenders, allowing them to force turnovers at a high rate (24th nationally) while somewhat limiting foes’ effectiveness from the perimeter. Zones obviously struggle when they surrender too many open shots, but Mississippi did a solid job contesting everything.
Kermit’s Rebels also rebounded shockingly well, leading the SEC in defensive rebound rate in conference play. Almost always a bugaboo of zone teams, the Rebels rebounded as a unit, getting strong contributions from the guards rather than having them leak out in transition. Considering the frustrations of the offense, the success of the defense, and the significantly slower tempo (from 196th in 2020 to 318th last year), it should come as no surprise that 19 of Mississippi’s 27 games went under the points total.
Bottom Line: Based on the strong defense and talent level, Mississippi looks a notch ahead of the bottom of the conference, but any upward mobility will depend heavily on capturing some modicum of efficiency on the other end. Murrell needs to live up to his outstanding recruiting pedigree, and he could be a huge “sophomore breakout” candidate. Rolling with a freshman point guard – especially a somewhat erratic one like Ruffin – will make the Rebels maddeningly inconsistent at times, but if Joiner can be a steadying presence alongside him, that would go a long way towards smoothing out the rough edges. It’s hard to make a case that Mississippi is anything but a mid-tier SEC team heading into the season, so that’s where the Rebels land here.
Tier 4
10. Texas A&M
Key Returners: Andre Gordon, Quenton Jackson (extra year), Hassan Diarra
Key Losses: Emanuel Miller (transfer), Savion Flagg (transfer), Jay Jay Chandler (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Marcus Williams (Wyoming), Tyrece Radford (Virginia Tech), Henry Coleman (Duke), Manny Obaseki, Wade Taylor, Ethan Henderson (Arkansas), Javonte Brown (UConn), Jalen Johnson (Mississippi St.), Ashton Smith
Lineup:
Outlook: When Buzz Williams left Virginia Tech for Texas A&M, the basketball aspect of the decision was confusing, to say the least (money talks though). Williams had the Hokies rolling, making three straight NCAA Tournaments and a Sweet 16 with an ACC squad, while the Aggies had made just two Big Dances in eight seasons under Billy Kennedy. Two seasons later, the questions persist. The Aggies are just 24-24 overall (12-16 in league play) over those years, and two anemic offenses have left questions about Buzz’s ability to build a winner in College Station.
Of course, a COVID stoppage crushed last year’s Aggies, forcing them to go over a month without playing a game (zero games in February is wild). Even before that stretch, though, the Aggies looked like a carbon copy of the mega-frustrating 2019-20 edition, showing a total inability to shoot or take care of the basketball. The rotation had zero consistency: Buzz used 12 different starting lineups in 18 games, with 12 different players starting at least two games, and that choppiness was extremely evident on the court.
The roster sees plenty of turnover, and Williams will be banking on two key backcourt additions to boost the Aggies’ ball-handling and perimeter play. Marcus Williams, last year’s Mountain West Freshman of the Year at Wyoming, returns to his home state of Texas to take the reins at point guard from (or play alongside) veteran Andre Gordon. As most freshmen do, Williams had some efficiency hiccups, but he was a dynamite pick-and-roll creator for the Cowboys last year, ranking in the 93rd percentile for PnR-derived offense:
That’s impressive patience and a dynamite finish over one of the country’s very best shot-blockers. He should continue to evolve via the sophomore leap, and he’ll be joined by 5-star freshman wing Manny Obaseki, the program’s second-best recruit ever, per 247 Sports (behind only DeAndre Jordan). He’s a mega-athlete with a burgeoning offensive game, and the scintillating southpaw could immediately become a go-to scorer in his first SEC campaign.
After playing such a sporadic lineup, (Buzz) Williams should at least have solid depth this year. Freshman Wade Taylor offers another option at point guard, and returners Hassan Diarra and Quenton Jackson provide depth on the wing. The Aggies’ offense is heavy on off-ball motion while spread out as much as their shooting allows, and Jackson’s decision to use his extra year of eligibility gives them a proven commodity from beyond the arc (albeit on low-ish volume). Williams and Obaseki will be given plenty of freedom to slash into gaps, but guys like Gordon and Diarra need to become more dangerous shooting threats to give them the lanes to do so.
Buzz also scored a huge offseason win by nabbing Tyrece Radford from Virginia Tech late in the offseason amid some legal issues. Those aside, Radford fits the mold of many of the Aggies’ current wings: downhill, slasher-type who can really get after it defensively, and he adds the benefit of playing far bigger than his height indicates. The physical lefty is a terrific finisher and rebounder, though he will not alleviate any perimeter shooting concerns.
If the rotation was the epitome of inconsistent, then at least Buzz’s year-to-year style provides some certainty. His last three teams have all ranked 334th in adjusted tempo, and his packed-in half court defense (whether it be zone or man) allows easy ball movement and an extremely high rate of 3P jumpers (bottom 10 in defensive 3PA rate for three straight years). That compact half court strategy is intentionally aiming to take away opponents’ shots at the rim, especially considering how poor the Aggies’ rim protection was last year. According to Hoop-Math, foes shot 70.1% at the rim last season, a bottom 10 mark nationally; fortunately, they only took 27.9% of shots there, the 12th-lowest mark in the country.
Williams added three big man transfers this offseason, and Javonte Brown in particular should be a welcome force at the rim after getting buried behind UConn’s outstanding frontcourt. Former Duke Blue Devil Henry Coleman similarly did not see the floor much as a freshman, but he oozes upside considering his strength and skill combo, while Ethan Henderson from Arkansas is more of a role player option.
The half court defense may be quite condensed off the ball, but Diarra, Jackson, Gordon, Radford and Williams will relentlessly harass ball-handlers, and Texas A&M in general will frequently throw full court pressure at opponents (21.6% of possessions, per Synergy – 28th-highest rate nationally). The Aggies will trap hard out of it at times, but it is primarily a tool for controlling the tempo and forcing foes into long possessions:
The Aggies’ defense struggled in transition – 9th percentile nationally in points per possession – but when they were able to set the pressure and then drop into a disciplined half court set, they became quite stingy.
That highlights the importance of improving offensively. The more efficient the Aggies can be scoring the ball, the more chances they’ll have to properly align defensively, giving that improvement something of a “snowball effect.” That’s easier said than done, but if (Marcus) Williams, Radford, and Obaseki can spruce up the backcourt production, then it’s within the realm of possibility.
Bottom Line: Neither side of the ball has been particularly strong under Buzz Williams so far, but the prime culprit for the Aggies’ struggles has been the anemic offense. Perhaps no stat better sums that up than this one: the Aggies went 6-12 against the spread last year, and their totals also went 6-12 (12 wins for the UNDER), all of which is directly attributable to their inability to score. Buzz added some talented pieces this offseason, although getting left at the altar by Jordan Hall (jumbo point guard who committed to Texas A&M before returning to St. Joseph’s) was an unfortunate blow for a team that could also use more skilled playmakers. Buzz’s ability to get his teams to play insanely hard will always make the Aggies a pain to play against, but the wins will not start coming until they find more of an offensive identity.
11. South Carolina
Key Returners: Jermaine Cousinard, Keyshawn Bryant, Wildens Leveque, Tre-Vaughn Minott
Key Losses: AJ Lawson (pro), Seventh Woods (transfer), Justin Minaya (transfer), Trae Hannibal (transfer), Alanzo Frink (transfer)
Key Newcomers: James Reese (North Texas), Erik Stevenson (Washington), Chico Carter (Murray St.), A.J. Wilson (George Mason), Jacobi Wright, Devin Carter, TaQuan Woodley, Carlous Williams
Lineup:
Outlook: The word around the South Carolina basketball program this offseason is “reset.” Following the Gamecocks’ worst season under Frank Martin since his debut campaign in 2013, the entire program – Martin himself included – is looking to reset in 2021-22 and find more consistency. South Carolina dealt with multiple COVID issues last season, playing short-handed in several games and dealing with an almost month-long shutdown through the month of December. Martin himself contracted the virus, and he lamented the inability to imprint his style and identity on his roster considering the lack of in-person contact allowed by the pandemic.
That showed in the way the Gamecocks played, struggling mightily to get stops while playing at the fastest tempo of Martin’s career. A big reason for that tempo spike was the Gamecocks’ miserable transition defense, allowing foes to get more frequent opportunities in the open floor – and never stopping them when they do:
Somewhat under the radar, Martin’s South Carolina teams have consistently played quickly on offense, but this was the first time since the early days that the defense became an open court layup line. That’s often an effort thing, and Martin hopes that extended workout time this offseason and the players’ own competitive fire will rectify such a glaring issue.
And it’s sorely needed, because the transition defense crept into other stats, as well. The Gamecocks got crushed inside the arc for the first time since 2013 (Martin’s first year in Columbia), flipping a usual strength into a glaring liability:
The roster had plenty of size, but with opponents getting so comfortable in transition, they ended up shooting well from everywhere: South Carolina’s defense ranked 311th in 3P% defense and 334th in FT% defense. Some (ok, a lot) of that can be credited to bad luck, but the onus is on the Gamecocks to make foes more uncomfortable and take away easy open shots early in the shot clock. The interior group of Wildens Leveque, Tre-Vaughn Minott, George Mason transfer AJ Wilson, and LSU transfer Josh Gray again includes some towering bodies (and Wilson is an elite shot-blocker), but getting into the mind of the opponent and getting stops will require more focus and determination from the entire roster.
Last year’s defensive foibles ate at Martin, allowing some alarming thoughts to creep into the mind of the ever-confident head coach:
“I’ve never been in that moment. I’ve never doubted in my team,” Martin said. “Even my first year here, we were undermanned and I had players that didn’t understand what I was asking and I didn’t understand them. We weren’t good enough to win. But I never doubted in our team.
“... And last year I did. I doubted in my abilities. I doubted the team, and I learned a hard lesson. I better not do that ever again.”
Martin plans to reset his approach, instilling more intensity to his roster to pair with his typical deathly glare on the sideline. With increased buy-in from the players, the effort to bring back the terrifying South Carolina defenses of old that mixed man-to-man and a mystifying matchup zone should pay off handsomely via an increase in wins.
That roster is also undergoing a reset, with Jermaine Cousinard, Keyshawn Bryant, and Leveque the primary returning pieces amidst a new crew featuring five transfers and three freshmen. Minott joined the team mid-season to reinforce the flagging interior rotation, but even he only saw the court in eight games after his belated arrival. The burning question is whether this particular group of transfers is an upgrade on the roster and whether it brings a more competitive SEC season to Columbia.
Erik Stevenson’s career has been a roller coaster, going from Wichita State to Washington and now to South Carolina, all while embodying the phrase “non-shooter who thinks he’s a shooter.” He has now attempted 450 triples in his career, making just 29.3% of those attempts to this point, and it’s hard to ask defenses to respect him. Wilson, wing James Reese (North Texas), and guard Chico Carter (Murray St.) all hail from solid mid-major programs, with Reese even bringing the roster’s only NCAA Tournament win to the table, but sliding into key roles in the SEC will be a challenge. Gray barely played for an LSU team that only pretended to play defense, so his impact in year one also warrants hesitancy.
The newcomers will be tasked with boosting an offense that struggled to score efficiently, but the ultimate burden for improvement there rests with Cousinard and Bryant, the team’s two highest-usage players who simply were not good enough last year. Cousinard’s sophomore slump was legendary, shooting an abysmal 30% from the field (only 31.4% inside the arc!), and his assist-to-turnover ratio also saw some regression. He and the uber-athletic-but-shooting-deficient Bryant have gobs of talent, though, and a bounce-back season from the two leaders would go a long way towards turning the Gamecocks’ trajectory around. If they can’t, Martin will not hesitate to turn to freshman guards Jacobi Wright and Devin Carter (no relation to Chico), giving the promising young guns a chance to prove themselves and stir up more optimism for future seasons.
It’s not all on the players. Martin’s offenses at South Carolina have been almost uniformly bad, finishing outside the top 90 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in all nine of his seasons there (that includes a Final Four trip!). His teams’ shot distribution is borderline prehistoric, taking far too many mid-range jumpers as opposed to threes or shots at the rim. As any analytics nut will tell you, mid-range shots can work if you make enough of them, but that’s incredibly hard, and South Carolina’s 34.5% conversion rate on them (per Hoop-Math) underscores just how ineffective that kind of offense can be.
For a team that’s so transition-reliant, it’s shocking to see such a high share of shots come from that area, but this is what far too many of those possessions became:
I mean, what the hell is that shot? Just pull it out if nothing’s there!
Of course, South Carolina in the half court was even worse, scoring just 0.785 points per possession according to Synergy. That ranked the Gamecocks in the 7th (seventh!) percentile nationally on a raw basis, so as long as you slow down their (already inefficient) transition offense, you have basically already beaten them.
Essentially the only way SC scored efficiently was via offensive rebounds, with Leveque and Minott forming a terrifyingly physical combo up front. Wilson should only add to that barrage on the glass, and if the perimeter players continue to miss jump shots at staggering rates – a near-certainty considering that only Reese and Carter shot well in their previous seasons, and both are now stepping up in competition – second shots will be the lifeblood of the Gamecocks’ offense once again.
Bottom Line: Martin candidly admits that he had several “real and honest” conversations with his bosses this offseason, and though he did get an extension through 2024-25, his job is far from secure if the Gamecocks crash and burn again this season. Reshuffling the roster deck provides a wider range of outcomes, but the Gamecocks’ offense looks likely to be inefficient again, meaning the improvement must come from a rediscovery of Martin’s aggressive and physical identity on the defensive side of the ball. It’s certainly possible, but the rest of the conference really loaded up on talent this offseason, so a significant ascendance up the standings will be a tough task indeed.
12. Missouri
Key Returners: Kobe Brown, Javon Pickett
Key Losses: Dru Smith, Jeremiah Tilmon, Xavier Pinson (transfer), Mark Smith (transfer), Mitchell Smith
Key Newcomers: Jarron Coleman (Ball St.), Amari Davis (Green Bay), Anton Brookshire, DaJuan Gordon (Kansas St.), Yaya Keita, Ronnie DeGray (UMass), Trevon Brazile, Sean Durugordon, Kaleb Brown
Lineup:
Outlook: Disclaimer first: I am a Mizzou grad. I strive to write everything from an entirely unbiased perspective, but if some of my personal pessimism around the trajectory of this program creeps into this preview, then I apologize in advance. But when you’re a high-major team that has not won a tournament game since 2010, never made a Final Four, and feel like you’re running a marathon on the treadmill of mediocrity, it’s hard to muster an excess of optimism…
Missouri enters a near-total rebuild season with a bevy of question marks. After losing four starters (and the team’s top four scorers), Coach Cuonzo Martin’s squad ranks 350th in the country in returning minutes (per Bart Torvik), and he turns to a huge allotment of newcomers in hopes of not losing all momentum from an NCAA Tournament berth. And really, if the ceiling with a senior-laden roster is a 9-seed and losing in the first round, then what are we even doing here? Oh right, there’s the pessimism. My bad!
The two returning veterans embody what Missouri’s identity will need to be: hard-working, aggressive, fearless, and not really an offensive threat. Kobe Brown is the lone starter back, and the brick house of a forward (listed at 255 pounds next year and it’s almost all muscle) will continue his two-way dominance on the glass, albeit without his running mate(s) up front. Javon Pickett, meanwhile, is a similarly well-built player whose values comes from his cutting and defense. Martin’s teams have long been known for their fundamentally sound, physical defenses, and though he has yet to engineer a top 40 unit at Missouri (per KenPom AdjDE), he’ll need to rediscover those traits with a roster that lacks much true size.
For the better part of four seasons, Jeremiah Tilmon anchored the paint in Columbia, using his massive frame to deter foes at the rim. Outside of 7’3 mega unit Jordan Wilmore, Mizzou no longer has a big man with true SEC size at center, and Wilmore’s concrete feet will render him little more than a situational player. Freshmen Yaya Keita and Trevon Brazile both have the chance to play immediately, but the more touted Keita is coming off a torn ACL that forced him to miss his entire senior season, so there will be some rust. As a result, Brown will probably have to slide down to center at times, which hurts inside but does give the Tigers an incredibly versatile lineup.
Pickett is one of many wing-sized players who can play – and guard – a variety of spots. Incoming point guard Jarron “Boogie” Coleman is a formidable presence himself at 6’4, 210 pounds, and fellow newcomers Ronnie DeGray (6’6, 225), Sean Durugordon (6’7, 210), and Kobe’s brother Kaleb Brown (6’6, 265) should all allow Martin the flexibility of switching liberally. That allows his defenses to disrupt motion and take away the three-point line, forcing more difficult isolation possessions. Missouri’s defensive shot distribution was borderline-elite last year, enticing foes into mid-range jumpers at the 16th-highest rate in the country (Hoop-Math), and that should continue with so many switchy defenders on board. How many of those guys are ready to play SEC hoops is a valid question, but there’s no doubt that Martin intentionally recruited players of impressive physical stature with his style in mind.
All this talk about the defense first is for a reason: the Tigers’ offense could be very, very bad. Martin has never settled on much of an offensive philosophy in Columbia, altering tempos and 3PA rates and post up usage to varying degrees of (in)effectiveness. The most significant breakthrough last year was finally not turning the ball over at a bottom-50 rate nationally. With Coleman, Green Bay transfer Amari Davis, and freshman Anton Brookshire, Martin will hope he can imitate the “multiple ball-handlers” look that aided last year’s more transition-heavy attack, relying on the two transfers in particular to beat defenders in 1v1 matchups. Davis has been an outstanding slasher to this point in his career:
Whether that will translate to power conference play is debatable – he shot just 38.9% from the field in the Phoenix’s five toughest games last year. Coleman had similar issues when leveling up in competition, though it was mostly a decline in perimeter shooting. DaJuan Gordon is a wild card, with Martin hoping that a change of scenery will revitalize the Chicago native after he was downright awful at Kansas State last season.
The “space-and-pace” offense of Martin’s dreams will certainly struggle with the “space” portion. As great as it would be to have copious driving lanes for all of the roster’s athletes, the roster looks largely devoid of volume shooting threats, with only Coleman having actually made shots in his most recent college campaign:
What Martin seems to have ignored with his recruiting strategy was the simple fact that for “space” to exist, opponents have to respect perimeter shooters. Brookshire can be a lethal perimeter threat if given the opportunity, but it really might only be he and Coleman that gives opponents something to think about when digging down on drives.
The other area where not having a legitimate big man hurts is interior scoring. By the end of his career, Tilmon had become a reliable force on the block capable of getting Mizzou at least a decent look when needed (if only he could make free throws…). There’s no get-out-of-jail-free card in this deck, meaning that when teams consistently keep the Tigers out of transition and out of the paint, they’re going to have some long droughts.
Bottom Line: Loaded with three-star recruits and mid-major transfers, this is a decidedly unglamorous roster, and for it to win games, Missouri will need to embrace a similarly unexciting style of play. Martin needs to rediscover his defenses of old, emphasizing physicality and disciplined rotations while also twisting the roster’s alarming lack of size into an advantage as a “switch everything” kind of sqad. Without any sort of a post up threat and a serious dearth of perimeter shooting, the offense has a frightening downside, and Mizzou games will likely not be the favorites of aesthetic-seeking neutrals. But the young Tigers will compete and be a pain in the arse to play against, so more talented foes higher up the standings would do well to not overlook a feisty bunch of “chip on their shoulder” guys. How’d I do? Unbiased? Eh, debatable.
13. Vanderbilt
Key Returners: Scotty Pippen, Jordan Wright, Trey Thomas, Quentin Millora-Brown, Myles Stute
Key Losses: Dylan Disu (transfer), Maxwell Evans (transfer), DJ Harvey (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Liam Robbins (Minnesota), Rodney Chatman (Dayton), Terren Frank (TCU), Shane Dezonie, Peyton Daniels, Gabe Dorsey, Jamaine Mann (Gardner-Webb)
Lineup:
Outlook: For the second straight year, Vanderbilt won just three conference games (3-13 this season, 3-15 in 2019-20). Simply viewing from an “SEC wins” lens conceals a marked improvement, though, as the Commodores shot up analytical rankings on both sides of the ball with a far more competitive squad. Hopes for maintaining that momentum hung by a thread this offseason, but Scotty Pippen Jr.’s decision to return to Nashville buoyed the optimism, and even in a highly competitive league, Jerry Stackhouse will be aiming for a true climb up the standings.
Unsurprisingly for a coach who had spent a ton of time in and around the NBA for years prior to joining the college ranks, Stackhouse’s offense is based heavily on spacing and skill. The Commodores aim to spread the floor with a four-out alignment, opening up driving lanes for Pippen and incoming transfer Rodney Chatman. Both will use ball screens a fair amount, and Pippen was even more effective out of them when slicing up coverages with his passing:
Yes, that’s clearly a designed read, but it’s still a dynamite live-dribble, cross-court delivery through a crowded lane. Pippen ranked 16th nationally in assist rate, showing a willingness and capability to make the right pass when the defense over-helped against him. His immense talent also allowed him to become one of the most dynamic scorers in the country via his multi-level abilities, finishing 16th nationally in points per game. Given his usage rate (3rd nationally at 35.2%), relative efficiency (6th nationally for players who used over 30% of possessions), and penchant for finding teammates, he was unquestionably one of the most integral players to a team’s offense in the entire country.
That drew a ton of attention, opening up jumpers for the ‘Dores bevy of perimeter bombers, and Vandy ended up taking over 47% of its shots from beyond the arc, a top 15 rate nationally. Many of those weapons depart, but Trey Thomas will be a lethal sniper in whatever role he plays, and Jordan Wright should knock down some shots as well. Chatman was a consistent shooter for two years before slumping last year while dealing with injury, and the “stretch four” spot has a trio of solid sophomore breakout candidates in returner Myles Stute, TCU transfer Terren Frank, and Gardner-Webb transfer Jamaine Mann. Throw in a promising freshman class featuring dynamic top 100 guard Shane Dezonie, Pippen successor Peyton Daniels, and big wing Gabe Dorsey, and the ‘Dores should continue to have some perimeter pop, both from deep and off the bounce.
Unfortunately, the ‘Dores lacked a rim presence to feed when slashing; outside of the departed Dylan Disu, every player in the center rotation had a miniscule usage rate. That should change with the addition of Liam Robbins, an intimidating big man who dominated when on the court last season. Unfortunately for his prior squad (Minnesota), he suffered a foot injury on February 11th, and he struggled mightily over the next three games before getting shut down for the year. On the day he got hurt, the Gophers beat Purdue and sat at 13-7 overall, 6-7 in the Big Ten. With a hobbled and then absent Robbins, they went 1-8 (0-7) the rest of the way. He mattered! His arrival also shifts Quentin Millora-Brown into a more appropriate reserve spot, where his high-energy offensive rebounding can wear down opposing bigs.
Robbins is also a marked upgrade on the defensive end, where Vandy was absolutely demolished at the rim. Foes shot 64.8% there, per Hoop-Math, ranking Vandy 317th in the country. Robbins is one of the best shot-blockers in the entire sport, finishing 15th in block rate last year. Millora-Brown was not a rim protector at all, but he was still somehow better than the departed Ejike Obinna, who managed to block as many shots as you did last year (zero), despite standing 6’10 and playing 152 minutes.
The other huge defensive flaw is largely going to be out of Robbins’ control, though. Vandy was an absolutely horrendous transition defense, surrendering nearly 28% of initial shots that way, per Hoop-Math, and allowing a scintillating 56.7% effective field goal percentage on them. For a team that is not inordinately reliant on offensive rebounding, those are pitiful numbers that demonstrate a simple lack of effort and communication of matchups when getting back. Watching Vandy’s opponents score in the open floor displays these issues:
Two guys inexplicably come to the ball there while neither covers the basket – that’s a relatively easy “stop and get set” if one just takes away the leak out straight to the rim. Some of that should come with experience, and Vandy played a ton of freshmen and sophomores last year, but it’s also something that needs to be stressed over and over in practice.
Once in the half court, the roster certainly has bodies to figure out a competent defense, though again, youth could be a factor if the freshmen command minutes. Vandy also ranked 13th in the SEC in defensive free throw rate, giving opponents way too many trips to the line, and it was not really offset by forcing a high share of turnovers. Last year was an improvement on 2019-20, but that improvement needs to continue for Vandy to make the sizable leap to “middle of the pack.”
Bottom Line: The Commodores’ outlook starts and ends with Pippen’s return. Without him, the perimeter group lacked offensive punch, but with him in the fold, the other pieces now slide into more comfortable complementary roles. Robbins will be a huge boost to the porous interior defense, provided he stays healthy, but the rest of the roster will need to sort out the disastrous transition defense. If that happens, it takes away a ton of easy baskets for the opponent, giving the ‘Dores a fighting chance to stay afloat in a loaded league. With any luck, Year Three under Stackhouse will finally be the one where Vandy manages more than three conference victories.
Tier 5
14. Georgia
Key Returners: P.J. Horne***
Key Losses: Sahvir Wheeler (transfer), K.D. Johnson (transfer), Toumani Camara (transfer), Justin Kier (transfer), Andrew Garcia (transfer), Tye Fagan (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Virginia), Aaron Cook (Gonzaga), Braelen Bridges (UIC), Jailyn Ingram (FAU), Dalen Ridgnal (JUCO), Noah Baumann (USC), Camron McDowell, Tyrone Baker, Kario Oquendo (JUCO), Christian Wright
*** - Announced on 10/20, Horne will miss the season with a knee injury.
Lineup:
Outlook: In the simplest sense, Tom Crean has done the job asked of him at Georgia: the Bulldogs’ overall and conference record has improved every season, as has the team’s KenPom ranking. With a more nuanced analysis, though, his third season – when he should have more of his players and be taking a leap – was much more an indictment than a success story. The Dawgs barely cracked the top 100 for Mr. Pomeroy (95th), and they still have yet to finish better than four games under .500 in league play (7-11 last year). Turns out, when you start 2-16 in your debut year, it’s easy to improve!
Improvement may not be so easy this year, though, considering Georgia returns just one of its top eight scorers. Resetting the roster after last year may not have been the worst idea on the surface, but losing so much production (including transfers to Kentucky, Auburn, Arizona, Dayton, and Mississippi) and replacing them with, um, not the same level of talent is an ominous sign as Crean enters a crucial year four.
Perhaps the most important addition all offseason was securing the services of Aaron Cook, the former SIU Saluki and Gonzaga Bulldog who joins his third canine-mascotted school in Athens. Crean’s transition-heavy offense demands a capable floor general, and the Dawgs arguably do not have another SEC-ready point guard on the roster. Cook was relegated to bench minutes for such a loaded Zags team, but he is a legitimate high-major talent who can run a fast break:
Any other PG minutes will be manned by Christian Wright, a solidly built 3-star recruit from The Skill Factory prep school. Cook’s presence allows him to grow into the role rather than be tossed into the deep end of the power conference pool.
As for Cook’s running mates, it’s a deep but uninspiring pool of candidates. Jabri Abdur-Rahim is the most enticing of the bunch, a former top 50 recruit with outstanding bloodlines and an embarrassment of physical talent. Listed at 6’8, he has guard skills, but he could not get off the bench at Virginia (in the ultimate case of “don’t believe blind fanbase hype”), playing just 31 garbage time minutes and scoring seven total points. He should be more comfortable outside the structured confines of Tony Bennett’s system, though. A second jumbo wing, JUCO transfer Dalen Ridgnal, stuffed the stat sheet for national runner-up Cowley College, though his numbers become slightly less impressive when you realize Cowley averaged 109 PPG. He essentially played center, so slotting into more of a wing role could be a challenge.
The other wing options – sophomore Jaxon Etter, USC transfer Noah Baumann, JUCO transfer Kario Oquendo, freshman Camron McDowell – all have some glaring holes in their games, which brings me to a primary worry with this group as a whole: perimeter defense. Cook should be solid on-ball, but Abdur-Rahim not playing at UVA tells you what you need to know about the readiness of his defense, and Etter/Baumann couldn’t get on the floor much last season. Plus, Crean is not exactly renowned for his lockdown defenses, so this could end up being an “express pass to the rim” situation for opposing guards.
And the rim defense is not exactly overflowing with impact players, either. Braelen Bridges played 19 MPG for a bad Horizon League team and blocked three shots all season, while returners Tyron McMillan and Jonathan Ned could not crack the rotation last year after arriving from junior college. More damningly, that was while the 2021 Bulldogs ranked 336th in the country in FG% defense at the rim, per Hoop Math, surrendering 67.5% shooting there. Freshman Tyrone Baker has some length and bounce to his game, but he’s still raw and relatively thin, so asking him to log major minutes in the paint could be a recipe for disaster in its own right.
That group of bigs also lacks offensive pop, and as promising as Jailyn Ingram’s career once was at Florida Atlantic, he may not be the answer either. Ten games into the 2018-19 season, he was pouring in 19 PPG for the Owls, but knee injuries have sapped his burst, limiting his effectiveness inside the arc, and facing foes like Oscar Tshiebwe and Walker Kessler isn’t going to alleviate those issues. Former Virginia Tech transfer P.J. Horne, the lone returning starter, is little more than a floor spacer himself. The key positive with the Dawgs’ frontcourt is mobility – most of these guys are comfortable running the floor in an up-tempo affair, which matches well to Crean’s preferred style.
When the game did slow down into a half court affair last year, Georgia saw a ton of zone thanks to its dearth of shooting. Horne and Baumann will be the only two that truly scare defenses, so this year could have more of the same. Zone also negated Sahvir Wheeler’s penetration in 2020-21, and doing the same to Cook could effectively hamper this year’s attack in a similar way.
Bottom Line: It’s hard to look at the guys Crean brought in and be convinced that this is an SEC roster. They were either minimally productive for quality teams or mired at a lower level of competition (or both), so the pressure is going to fall heavily on Crean to add them into something greater than the sum of the parts. Considering the arms race for talent across the rest of the league (even Vanderbilt has a first team all-conference candidate!), slowing the tempo to something below “Usain Bolt” levels would make a lot of sense, and he’s shown a proclivity to do that when the talent is underwhelming (164th, 101st, 210th in tempo his first three years at Indiana, 134th his first year at Georgia). Still,it’s hard to place Georgia anywhere besides last at this stage, and barring some borderline-miraculous development(s), Crean’s job security may come under fire.