- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Markquis Nowell, Jr., Little Rock
Coach of the Year: Rob Lanier, Georgia State
Newcomer of the Year: Shahada Wells, Jr., UT Arlington
Freshman of the Year: Isaiah Richards, Fr., Louisiana
Tier 1
1. Little Rock
Key Returners: Markquis Nowell, Ruot Monyyong, Ben Coupet, Jovan Stulic, Isaiah Palermo, Marko Lukic, Nikola Maric, Kris Bankston, Alsean Evans
Key Losses: Jaizec Lottie, Kamani Johnson
Key Newcomers: Marko Andric, Yacine Toumi
Lineup:
Outlook: Before jumping into the nitty gritty of Little Rock basketball and the rest of the Sun Belt, let’s show some appreciation for what head coach Darrell Walker did last season. The Trojans were picked 11th in the preseason poll after coming off a dreadful 5-13 year – to make matters worse, Walker lost two of his key rotational players in Kris Bankston and Alsean Evans just three and two games into the season, respectively. Despite this, Walker led Little Rock to its best season since Chris Beard’s 2016 squad and the 2nd best overall in the KenPom era (dating back 23 years), winning the Sun Belt conference crown by a full two games. Walker isn’t a young coach, though his DI experience is limited to just two years – he’s a former NBA head coach and assistant, a leader who could easily ascend the ranks to a Power 6 job if he continues his trajectory at UALR. With nearly everyone returning from last season’s squad, Little Rock will not only be the heavy favorite in the Sun Belt, it’ll be one of the best mid-major teams in the country.
The offensive end is where Little Rock really shined in 2019-20, ranking 1st in the Sun Belt and top 100 in the country in adjusted efficiency. Walker pumped the breaks on an offense that ranked 66th in average possession length the year before, slowing his Trojans down to the 216th “fastest” offensive squad. Walker’s teams the past two seasons have been all about rim attack – his teams pass, cut, and share the ball in an effort to get the ball to the hoop and draw fouls. Little Rock ranked 2nd in the country in FT rate last season and 15th in assist rate; the Trojans are an unselfish ball club with a clear goal in mind: get high quality shots. When they did shoot threes, the Trojans shot them well, and Coach Walker has plenty of perimeter shooting weapons at his disposal to line up alongside gifted slashers and post-men. The only thing really lacking from last year’s offense was ball security – the Trojans turned the ball over at one of the highest rates in the country (333rd in TO rate; 11th in the Sun Belt). Much of this was at the hands of Jaizec Lottie, but nearly everyone on the squad posted a TO rate in the low-20s – not acceptable for a conference championship caliber team.
Defensively, Little Rock wasn’t terrible (thanks in large part to Sun Belt DPOY Ruot Monyyong), but it ranked just 6th in the league in adjusted efficiency and 184th nationally. Paint protection was not an issue thanks to Monyyong and the other bigs, but the Trojans were consistently burned in transition and from behind the arc, their two primary improvement points heading into 2020-21. Greater roster continuity, experience, and a better luck should lead to improved overall defensive efficiency this season.
Little Rock accounted for two of the Sun Belt’s five 1st Team All-Conference spots last season and both players return in 2020-21. 5’7” point guard Markquis Nowell was the 4th leading scorer in the league last year and promises to be on the shortlist for POY this season. Nowell is a super quick lead guard who can shoot it from the parking lot; he shot 39.8% from deep in conference play last season while also leading the league in assist rate and FT%. Don’t be fooled by his small stature – Nowell is a dynamite college basketball player and is one of the more enjoyable guys to watch in the country.
Nowell is excellent in just about every offensive category but he really thrives in the pick-n-roll where he scored 1.007 PPP last year, good for the 94th percentile nationally. Defensively, as you can imagine, Nowell’s quickness and stature aid in his ability to rack up steals and wreak havoc on opposing ball handlers – he ranked 4th in the league in steal rate in 2019-20.
Nowell’s 1st Team All-Conference cohort is a player previously mentioned: Ruot Monyyong, the Newcomer of the Year in Sun Belt last season. Monyyong was a top 100 JUCO recruit coming to Little Rock last year but nobody could’ve predicted how profound of an impact he would have in his first season. The Trojans were a different team defensively when Monyyong was on the court, as this Hoop Lens screen shot shows:
Info per Hoop Lens
Monyyong ranked 4th in the league in block rate and 1st in DR%; offensively, he was trustworthy on post-ups, ran the floor well, and earned the Trojans plenty of extra possessions. There’s not a better “book-end” pairing – that is, point guard and center – than Nowell and Monyyong in the conference and perhaps all of mid-majordom.
Having star players is a good start for a conference championship hunt, but Little Rock also has arguably the deepest roster in the league – Walker can go 10 or 11 deep on a nightly basis without a major drop-off in productivity. In the frontcourt, Kris Bankston will fight for starts alongside Monyyong, while 6’10” junior Nikola Maric and 7’0” senior Admir Besovic provide backup. Kamani Johnson’s recent transfer announcement is a major blow to the Trojan frontcourt depth - he started every game of the season after Bankston went down with injury and earned 3rd Team All-Conference honors in 2019-20. Johnson also drew a ridiculous 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes and shot a ridiculous 192 FTs compared to 190 2PFGA.
Bankston will need to pick up the significant slack left behind by Johnson - he’s an athletic forward who dunks just about everything he can. Offensively, Bankston is extremely efficient due to his tendency to only take shots near the bucket – a whopping 95.5% of his total FGA in 2018-19 came near the hoop, the main reason he shot 81% from the floor that year. Elsewhere, Bankston provides rebounding and shot-blocking – a lineup with him and Monyyong on the floor would be quite difficult to score against inside the arc. Maric and Besovic, both hailing from Bosnia-Herzegovina, will see the floor in some capacity this season. Maric started every game as a freshman prior to Monyyong coming to town and contributes as a decent shot blocker, decent rebounder, and decent stretch-forward. Besovic is less-used but his size makes him an asset deep off the pine.
On the wing look for 6’7” senior Ben Coupet Jr., 6’5” sophomore Jovan Stulic, 6’6” redshirt junior Alsean Evans, and 6’7” sophomore Marko Lukic to fight for major minutes. Coupet, a former UNLV transfer, enjoyed a successful first season in the Sun Belt, providing primarily outside shooting. He’s a lock to start the entirety of the year, but the third guard spot is very much in contention. Stulic started every game as a freshman and shot 37.9% from downtown in Sun Belt play – with Coupet and Nowell, Stulic’s presence on the floor gives Little Rock a dangerous outside-shooting trio; they are the three most prolific and best shooters on the squad.
Evans played just two games before going down with injury, but all signs pointed to him being a key contributor. He’s a big ball handler who can use his size to bully opposing guards into the lane. Lukic first saw action on January 9th and proved to be quite the gunner. As a freshman, Lukic ranked 2nd on the team in usage and provided instant offense off the bench. While he shot only 33.3% from deep in 2019-20, Lukic has a good-looking stroke and should be a viable three-point weapon off the pine for the Trojans this season. Isaiah Palermo, a 6’5” sophomore wing, is an excellent athlete who is arguably Little Rock’s best perimeter defender. He won’t contribute much offensively, but he’ll have a spot in Walker’s rotation thanks to his defensive ability.
Walker’s two freshmen, Marko Andric and Yacine Toumi, likely won’t assume large roles this season due to the sheer depth on this roster. Andric, one of three Serbians on the team, is a talented combo guard who can handle the rock, shoot, and rebound. Toumi, a Tunisia native, is a long, tall wing who could really develop into a nice player down the road. At 6’10” with perimeter skills, Toumi has a lot of tools at a young age – adding strength will be his biggest key this season.
Bottom Line: Little Rock is the class of a good Sun Belt this season. The Trojans return nearly everyone from a 15-5 championship squad a year ago and should be the heavy faves to represent the league in the 2021 Dance. Anything less than a Sun Belt title would be a disappointment, but with Darrell Walker at the helm anything less than a Sun Belt title seems highly unlikely.
2. Georgia State
Key Returners: Kane Williams, Justin Roberts, Corey Allen, Nelson Phillips, Jalen Thomas, Joe Jones III
Key Losses: Damon Wilson, Josh Linder, Kavonte Ivery, Chris Clerkley
Key Newcomers: JoJo Toppin (Georgia), Ryan Boyce (Memphis), Eliel Nsoseme (Cincinnati), Evan Johnson, Collin Moore, Kaleb Scott
Lineup:
Outlook: Georgia State didn’t skip a beat last season despite the departure of 8-year head coach Ron Hunter and arguably the best player in the Sun Belt in D’Marcus Simonds. Rob Lanier, former head coach of Siena from 2001 – 2005, came over from Rick Barnes’s staff at Tennessee to replace Hunter and had his Panthers competing near the top of the league all year. Lanier had to integrate a lot of new pieces last season and completely shift GSU’s style following Simonds’s departure – this season should be a cakewalk in comparison. The Panthers return four starters from a top 130 KenPom team a year ago including two All-Conference selections; they’re deep, they’re talented, and they’re experienced. GSU should be considered the favorites alongside Little Rock to capture the Sun Belt crown in 2020-21.
Lanier ramped up GSU’s tempo last season following eight years of mostly halfcourt, disciplined basketball under Hunter. The Panthers were the fastest offensive team in the Sun Belt, looking to score in transition any opportunity they could find. Led by a three-headed monster in the backcourt, GSU looked to take advantage of its talented guards by allowing them to work in the open floor, off ball screens, and in isolation. Additionally, GSU crashed the offensive glass hard, a stark departure from Hunter teams that focused on getting back on the defensive end versus going for rebounds. We should see a similar style from Lanier’s Panthers this season – he’ll likely throw out 4-guard lineups consistently with the great amount of depth he has at his disposal.
The three-headed monster alluded to previously is none other than Kane Williams, Justin Roberts, and Corey Allen. All three guards averaged over 13.0 PPG last season and all three guards are very tough matchups for Sun Belt opponents. Williams shined last year outside Simonds’s shadow, earning 2nd Team All-Sun Belt honors and leading the team in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. His large uptick in usage last season did not correspond to a severe drop in efficiency, as Williams was able to handle and shoot the ball effectively despite the heavier load.
Williams will split point guard duties with former DePaul transfer Justin Roberts, who exceled last season after a tough freshmen year in Chicago. Roberts was a member of the All-Sun Belt 3rd Team and knocked down 43.6% of his 3P shots in league play, the second-best mark in the conference. While he’s a natural point guard, Roberts was used off the ball a considerable amount last year due to his sniper-like shooting, particularly in transition where his stop and pop shots from the wing went in more often than not. Corey Allen, formerly of Detroit, continued his high-usage role at GSU he began as a Titan, proving to be a dangerous offensive player with his ability to shoot and drive. Collectively, there’s not a backcourt trio in the Sun Belt that can match the Panthers’ stars’ production.
Georgia State’s guard depth doesn’t stop at the three aforementioned starters. Junior wing Nelson Phillips, Georgia transfer JoJo Toppin, Memphis transfer Ryan Boyce, and freshmen Evan Johnson and Collin Moore are all capable of playing major minutes for the Panthers this season. Phillips is an excellent rebounder for his size, led the Sun Belt in 3P% in conference play (45.6%), and racks up steals and blocks defensively. Playing a lineup of Williams / Roberts / Allen / Phillips would likely be too small to be successful over a large sample size, but could be deadly in spurts. Toppin, however, is a good candidate to earn starts and minutes at the small-ball 4 spot. While he didn’t play much at UGA, Toppin is a talented wing with the requisite size and length to hold his own against other Sun Belt frontcourts. Likewise, freshman Collin Moore already has the strength and athleticism to compete at the DI level and could steal minutes at the 4 in his first season. Boyce will be a good option off the pine at the 2 or 3 – he played just five games for Memphis and should be eligible for the entirety of 2020-21. Evan Johnson, a 3-star recruit from Oak Hill, could be a future star at the point. He’s fast, he can shoot, and he can play effectively on or off the ball. Sophomore wing Kalik Brooks likely resumes his deep bench role.
Lanier’s depth up front is solid as well, especially given the fact he’s liable to run mostly 4-guard looks. One of either Jalen Thomas or Joe Jones III likely starts at the 5 – both big men are sophomores, and both earned starts last season in their rookie years. Thomas is more mobile than Jones and also the superior shot blocker (3rd in the Sun Belt in block rate) and finisher. Jones, Greg Oden’s kid brother, is an excellent rebounder who’s a bit more of a “bruiser” than Thomas. Cincy transfer Eliel Nsoseme will also be a factor in the big man rotation after sitting out last season. He’s a monster on the glass and gives the Panthers another competent rim protector. Freshman PF Kaleb Scott has a ton of potential as a regular contributor down the road – he’s a long 6’6” with very broad shoulders.
Defensively, GSU led the Sun Belt in eFG% defense but ranked dead last in defensive rebounding rate and 11th in FTA allowed. Lanier likes to mix in a full-court press – either a token man or 1-2-2 trapping look – and throws in a good amount of 2-3 zone in the halfcourt to complement is primary man-to-man schemes. The Panthers are good at forcing turnovers with their speed and athleticism and focus on disallowing three-point opportunities – both ingredients to a solid defensive recipe.
While not an elite defensive team last season, GSU was good overall and among the top four in the Sun Belt, rankings that should be repeatable and able to be surpassed in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: The only other Sun Belt team in Georgia State’s class this season is Little Rock. The Panthers have all the firepower in the world to be one of the best mid-major teams in the country and return to the NCAA Tournament in 2021.
Tier 2
3. UT Arlington
Key Returners: David Azore, Jordan Phillips, Sam Griffin, Nicolas Elame, Patrick Mwamba
Key Losses: Brian Warren, Radshad Davis, Jabari Narcis, TiAndre Jackson-Young, Coleman Sparling, Ayoub Nouhi
Key Newcomers: Shahada Wells (JUCO), Fredelin De La Cruz (JUCO), Grayson Carter (Georgetown), Tre Jones (Redshirt), Brandyn Talbot, Carson Bischoff (JUCO / Utah State), Lazaro Rojas (Fresno State)
Lineup:
Outlook: Chris Ogden has performed admirably in his first two seasons as head coach in Arlington. Though the Mavs finished with a worse record in 2019-20 than in their previous season, they ranked a full 20 spots higher in KenPom. Ogden has exceeded expectations after taking over for the successful Scott Cross, using JUCO transfers to lead the way. 2020-21 could have looked much differently if the ball had bounced the right way – UTA lost five Sun Belt games by three points or less and dropped non-conference bouts to Gonzaga by 6, Furman by 1, and UCSB by 4. A little more luck and the Mavs may very well have been one of the top mid-majors in the country.
Ogden loses several key pieces from last year’s squad but returns his best player in David Azore plus two more starters, and adds a top 15 JUCO prospect to run point. Azore was a 2nd Team All-Sun Belt selection as a sophomore and assumes sort of a point-wing role. Last season, Azore led the team in assist rate (8th in the Sun Belt) while hardly ever turning it over and scored effectively via attacking the basket and hitting tough pull-up jumpers.
While Azore could stand to improve upon his dicey outside shooting numbers, he’s one of the better scorers in the league and the undisputed leader for the Mavs in 2020-21.
Azore’s game is representative of UTA at large – the Mavs are generally a jump-shot reliant squad that take (but don’t make) a lot of threes and mid-range jumpers. Last year the Mavs ranked 77th in the country in 3PA rate but just 309th in 3PFG%. Good ball protection prevented them from being a disaster offensively, and in fact UTA was much improved on this end thanks in large part to Azore, Brian Warren, and Radshad Davis. Ogden likes to play “small” and have multiple ball handlers on the court at once, enabling him to spread the floor and attack the paint from different angles. With a versatile roster lacking immense size, this will almost assuredly be his preference once again this season.
Perhaps the most important player on this year’s roster is newcomer Shahada Wells, the #12 JUCO prospect in the country and projected starting point guard for the Mavs this season. Wells was a 1st Team NJCAA All-American last year after posting 21.6 PPG and 6.0 APG and shooting 46.5% from deep. He’s a big-time player, a good shooter, talented scorer, and dynamic athlete – look for Wells to push Azore for team scoring title honors and be in consideration for an All-Conference nod.
Jordan Phillips and Sam Griffin are the two key returners outside of Azore. Phillips, a former Arkansas Hog, is a 3/4 hybrid who can handle the ball in the open floor, hit the three, and play tough defense. He’s one of UTA’s most versatile players and will fill multiple positions as needed. Griffin turned in a solid freshman year in which he started 20 games and shot 36% from three-point land in Sun Belt play. Like nearly everyone else on the squad, Griffin can handle the ball, and he adds value as a lock-down on-ball perimeter defender.
Sophomore CG Nicolas Elame and redshirt sophomore forward Patrick Mwamba will play key rotational roles off the pine. Elame runs some point and is a gifted slasher offensively. He has plenty of room to grow developmentally and could really break-out in his second year in Arlington. Mwamba missed most of last season due to a broken foot. When he’s healthy, he’ll provide rebounding and man the 5-spot in smaller lineups.
Ogden’s two other returners, McKade Marquis and Davis Steelman, will fill deeper rotational roles off the pine.
Up front, look for Georgetown transfer Grayson Carter and JUCO transfer Fredelin De La Cruz to compete for starting honors alongside Phillips. Carter was a 4-star recruit coming out of HS but rarely saw the floor for the Hoyas during his freshman year – he’s a long post-man who can board and shoot the three. De La Cruz is ranked as the 80th best JUCO prospect in the country per JUCOrecruiting.com – he’s long like Carter and can guard multiple positions on the floor. Fresno State grad transfer Lazaro Rojas could also see the floor for the Mavs this season - he was seldom used for the Bulldogs but offers size and length up front.
Rounding out UTA’s rotation in some fashion will be redshirt freshman Tre Jones, freshman Brandyn Talbot, and JUCO transfer Carson Bischoff. Jones is a big-time athlete who will certainly play some sort of role in the frontcourt this season. Talbot is a big skilled point guard who was highly regarded on the Canadian recruiting channels. Bischoff was at Utah State last season but redshirted after averaging 19.7 PPG and scorching the nets from deep in JUCO.
Defense has been the bread & butter for the Mavs the last two seasons under Ogden – no surprise when considering the 39-year old coach hails from the Chris Beard coaching tree. UTA was the 3rd ranked defense in the Sun Belt last season, per KenPom, and has ranked in the top 100 nationally in each of the past two years. Unlike his former boss, Ogden’s teams shut down the perimeter – the Mavs allowed the lowest 3PA rate and lowest 3PFG% in the league last season. Ogden will mix in some 2-3 zone and full-court press (extended man and diamond press variety) to compliment his standard half-court man looks.
Bottom Line: UTA finished 7th in the Sun Belt last season but ranked 4th via KenPom. The Mavs should once again be a top five team in a league they’ve fared quite well in over the past decade. Look for the defense to maintain its strength and the offense to improve with Wells at the helm and the influx of shooting to the roster.
4. South Alabama
Key Returners: Tyreke Locure, John Pettway, KK Curry
Key Losses: Chad Lott, Trhae Mitchell, Josh Ayayi, Andre Fox, Herb McGee, Don Coleman
Key Newcomers: Sam Iorio (American), Deaundrae Ballard (Florida), Kayo Goncalves (DII), Howard Washington Jr. (Syracuse), David Walker (JUCO), Andrew Anderson, Jamal West, Zondrick Garrett, Michael Flowers (Western Michigan)***, Terrence Lewis (Iowa State)***
*** Michael Flowers are Terrence Lewis awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Richie Riley enters his 5th season as a Division I head coach and 3rd at the University of South Alabama. At just 37 years old, Riley is one of the youngest head coaches in the country and quickly becoming one of the most successful at the mid-major level. He landed the USA job after leading Nicholls State to a split of the Southland regular season title, using high-level transfers to do his bidding. At South Alabama, Riley has continued his preference for bringing in transfers over recruiting the high school ranks and has quickly turned USA into the mid-major Transfer U of the south. Last year’s Jaguar squad started off disappointing but then found their groove in February when they rattled off nine straight wins. 2019-20’s 20-win season was the program’s first since 2009 and was the best overall season in program history since 2008. Riley’s roster almost completely flips over this year, but he once again has a cadre of transfer talent at his disposal with which to make another run to the top of the Sun Belt standings.
Riley’s offensive style tends to ebb and flow based on his roster, unsurprising for a coach who doesn’t have much continuity year over year. USA’s tempo has been slow offensively the past two seasons, but the Jaguars do rely heavily on transition to score points. Despite ranking just 215th in APL USA ranked 32nd in percentage of plays ended via transition per Synergy. Riley’s high-pressure defense is the catalyst to this part of the South Alabama attack – the Jaguars use their defense to create open floor opportunities. When in the halfcourt, USA was mostly a rim attack team in 2019-20, though the Jaguars were much more three-point-based in 2018-19. With the type of guys Riley brings in this season, expect South Alabama to attempt more threes this season. One constant of Riley’s four offenses during his coaching career is a high free throw rate – his teams attack the basket and get to the line often.
Defensively, South Alabama pressed at the 8th highest rate in the country and zoned at the 10th highest rate in the country in 2019-20. The Jaguars forced teams to play very slow on this end, using a myriad of traps to make ball handlers feel uncomfortable. USA’s full-court press is usually an extended 2-2-1 that looks to trap and maintain high pressure on the ball. When the ball crosses the timeline, USA often drops back into a 2-3 zone that looks to trap in corners and functions almost as a matchup-zone. Riley’s zone does not sit back on its haunches and let the defense come to it, rather his guys are very active with their hands and feet and look to create steals. The major downsides to this defense last season were the high rate of threes allowed (only five teams allowed a higher rate) and the lack of defensive rebounding (a common zone flaw), otherwise this was a solid Sun Belt defensive team in 2019-20.
Only three contributors return from last season’s squad. Guards Tyreke Locure and John Pettway will compete for starting spots in the backcourt while sophomore forward KK Curry will look to increase his playing time up front. Locure started the final nine games of the 2019-20 campaign and turned in a decent freshman year. He’ll handle point duties frequently and can beat opponents off the dribble with his quickness. Defensively, Locure is excellent at mixing it up on the ball and forcing turnovers. He should start at point unless Howard Washington steps up and/or Michael Flowers gets a waiver. Pettway is a combo guard who offensively is all drive all the time. In three seasons, Pettway has attempted just eight three-pointers, preferring to use his strength to score instead of his shooting. Defensively is where Pettway really shines – he’s led the conference in steal rate in each of the past two seasons and will once again be one of the better defenders in the league this year.
Curry posted good rebounding rates as a freshman and proved to be an efficient near-basket scorer in addition to showing his ability to put the ball on the floor. He should be one of the first frontcourt players off the bench in 2020-21.
Ok, onto the incoming transfers. Riley brings in five Division I transfers, one Division II transfer, and one JUCO transfer to make up for the mass departures this offseason. Sam Iorio and Deaundrae Ballard sat out last year with South Alabama after transferring from American and Florida, respectively. Iorio was a very good Patriot League player and should be a solid contributor / regular starter in the Sun Belt. He can play the 3 or 4, rebounds and passes well, and is a 38.7% career three-point shooter on 320 attempts. Ballard was a top 100 prospect in the class of 2017 but didn’t see much run in Gainesville. At USA, Ballard will have all the opportunity in the world to blossom and turn into an effective two-way player. Like Iorio, Ballard can play multiple spots.
The other three DI transfers are currently awaiting waivers to play immediately. If all three receive waivers it will be like the Wayne’s World Mega Happy Ending where everything goes right and USA is one of the league favorites. Howard Washington Jr. likely gets a waiver after transferring from Syracuse – he overcame a blood clot-induced stroke back in 2018 and has already redshirted one year in college. A 3-star recruit coming out of HS, Washington is a table setter and floor leader capable of playing major minutes in the Sun Belt. Michael Flowers, a Western Michigan transfer, was an Honorable Mention All-MAC selection last season. He was spectacular for a bad team, a high usage point guard who evolved into a knockdown three-point shooter his junior year. Flowers’s ability to get to the foul line would allow him to fit in perfectly with Riley’s offensive style of play – if he’s eligible, he likely starts. Finally, Terrence Lewis, an Iowa State transplant and former 4-star recruit, would add athleticism, scoring, and size to the wing. Like Ballard, Lewis has a real chance at a career renaissance away from the confines of the Power 6.
From the DII ranks comes 6’8” forward Kayo Goncalves, a stretch 4 who shot 47% on 100 attempts his final season in DII. If Riley played Goncalves at the 5 and Iorio at the 4, USA would have a dangerous shooting frontcourt and the floor would be spaced for days.
David Walker is Riley’s new JUCO recruit. Walker was an Honorable Mention All-American last season after averaging 22.4 PPG and shooting 44.6% from deep. JUCOrecruiting.com ranks Walker as the 20th best JUCO prospect in the land; he’s a hardnosed, aggressive basket attacker, should start for the Jaguars right away, and perhaps even lead the team in scoring.
Three freshmen also join the fold this year in Andrew Anderson, Jamal West, and Zondrick Garrett. Anderson was rated a 3-star prospect by 247 Sports and will compete for minutes at the point guard spot behind the million other bodies on the roster. West is an undersized power forward who could develop into a great defender with his athleticism and versatility. Garrett is a bouncy forward with a nice outside shot – he’ll add value as a floor space and rim protector.
Bottom Line: As he did last season, Richie Riley has talent in spades in 2020-21. Meshing new pieces together isn’t easy as USA found out the hard way in the first half of last year, but Riley has experience fitting odd-shaped parts into a beautiful puzzle. His Jaguars will be on the shortlist for Sun Belt title contender, especially if Flowers and/or Lewis are able to play.
Tier 3
5. Coastal Carolina
Key Returners: DeVante Jones, Garrick Green, Ebrima Dibba, Tim Ceaser, Isaac Hippolyte, Malik LeGania, Hosana Kitenge
Key Losses: Tommy Burton, Tyrell Gumbs-Frater, Keishawn Brewton, Josh Peterson, Levi Cook
Key Newcomers: Tyrik Dixon (Missouri State), DeAnthony Tipler (JUCO), Kevin Williamson (JUCO), Daivon Stephens (JUCO), Essam Mostafa (Redshirt), DeShawn Thomas (LSU)
Lineup:
Outlook: Cliff Ellis has been a college basketball head coach since 1972, just before Watergate and three years after the first moon landing. In that time Ellis has amassed 858 wins (780 at the DI level), putting him among the all-time winningest coaches in college basketball history. This season will be his 14th in Conway, SC, the home of the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina. Ellis has been a blessing for the basketball program and has kept them competitive since joining the Sun Belt in 2016-17. In four years in Sun Belt play, CCU is 35-39, never really reaching the level of league title contender but also never stooping to the conference cellar. The Chants were a scrappy team in the non-con last year, nearly taking down Northern Kentucky, beating Utah in the Myrtle Beach Invitational, and outlasting a tough Winthrop team on the road. It seems the Chants are always capable of pulling an upset, and they seem to always hang around superior talented teams. This year should be no different.
CCU loses its best two shooters and best rebounder from last season but returns its best player in DeVante Jones. Jones was a 2nd Team All-Sun Belt member last season after capturing the Freshman of the Year award back in 2018-19. CCU played its fastest tempo ever under Ellis last season, leading the Sun Belt in overall tempo and ranking 2nd in fastest offensive APL. Transition was the key to the Chants’ attack, as they ranked 8th in the country in initial FGA% on the run (per Hoop-Math). Additionally, in true Cliff Ellis team fashion, CCU crashed the offensive glass HARD in 2019-20, ranking 7th in the country in OR%. Outside shooting was an issue last season and likely will be again without the services of Tyrell Gumbs-Frater and Keishawn Brewton, but the glass and the scoring prowess of Jones will be consistent.
Jones will handle the lion’s share of the ball handling duties this season, though he does have more help in that department with the return of a healthy Ebrima Dibba and Missouri State transfer Tyrik Dixon. Jones excels in transition and is apt at splitting defenders off ball screens and drawing contact in the lane.
In Jones, CCU has one of the best players in the Sun Belt this season.
Dibba’s return will be a massive shot in the arm to the Chanticleer offense – an ACL tear prematurely ended Dibba’s 2019-20 campaign just six games into the year. Dibba can play on or off the ball and his 6’6” frame makes him a difficult matchup for opposing guards to handle. He’s a three-level scorer and capable defender on the other end. Garrick Green will likely start alongside Dibba and Jones after starting every game last season for the Chants. Green is a very good offensive rebounder for his size and offers shooting to an offense that for the most part lacks it.
Dixon will likely have to adjust to coming off the bench in his final collegiate season after being a consistent three-year starter at Middle Tennessee and Missouri State. He’ll be an “instant offense” type plug off the pine that’ll give the Chants a boost when their attack stalls. Likewise, top 120 JUCO prospect DeAnthony Tipler promises to bring a ton of scoring to the fold after pouring in 20.4 PPG last year and shooting 37.8% from downtown. Tipler will be yet another body on the roster who can play on or off the ball in what should be another uptempo offense. Junior off-guard Malik LeGania averaged 9.1 PPG over the last seven games of the 2019-20 season, in which he earned back his starting spot from earlier in the year. He’ll likely rejoin the bench corps and will be a slashing / pull-up threat off the pine. JUCO transfer wings Keith Williamson and Daivon Stephens will round out the backcourt rotation. Williamson is an athletic, versatile defender while Stephens offers more in the realm of spot-up shooting.
Up front, CCU will need to replace the active rebounding of Tommy Burton, the 4th leading rebounder in the Sun Belt last season. Ellis has five primary options to start at the 4 and/or 5 and typically prefers lineups with the “traditional” two bigs / three guards look. Sophomore forward Tim Ceaser started the last 11 games of the season and put up 7.8 PPG / 6.2 RPG over his last 12. He ranked 6th in the Sun Belt in OR% and appears to be the primary candidate to lock up one of those starting spots. Though he does most of his damage in the paint, Ceaser can step away from the hoop and shoot from the outside when needed. Junior forward Isaac Hippolyte started 12 games last year for the Chants and proved to be an active rebounder much like Ceaser and the departed Burton. However, in 60+ games Hippolyte has yet to record a block, which seems nearly impossible when you stand 6’7”. Sophomore behemoth Hosana Kitenge will also compete for frontcourt minutes this season. At 265 pounds, Kitenge is an immovable object in the lane – few Sun Belt bigs can out-muscle him inside. Redshirt freshman Essam Mostafa and sophomore Ahmard Harvey will also be in the mix for playing time up front. Mostafa was a 3-star recruit in the class of 2019 and has experience playing with the U19 Egyptian team. He brings massive potential to the table and could be an under-the-radar pick to provide CCU with some unexpected production. Harvey played sparingly as a rookie and functions primarily as a long defender. LSU transfer DeShawn Thomas should also be in the mix for frontcourt minutes - he never saw the floor for the Tigers but did play for JUCO power Florida Southwestern State the year prior. He adds shot blocking and rebounding to the lineup.
The defensive side of the ball is usually where most people recognize Cliff Ellis. Ellis is famous for throwing out a multitude of different “junk zone” looks to throw opposing offenses off balance and cause general frustration. Of course last season these junk zone didn’t do much to deter scoring, as CCU allowed a ton of threes and gave free passes to the FT line with regularity. The Chants were great at preventing teams from getting near the rim and they were the best defensive rebounding team in the Sun Belt, but everything else was subpar. Given Ellis’s historical defensive metrics, expect CCU to improve on this end in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: Coastal Carolina has the pieces to be successful within the Sun Belt this season. It has ample size, guard depth, scoring, and talent. Despite the loss of a handful of key pieces, this could be the best chance CCU has had in Ellis’s tenure to finally compete near the top of the Sun Belt.
6. Texas State
Key Returners: Isiah Small, Marlin Davis, Mason Harrell, Alonzo Sule, Caleb Asberry, Shelby Adams, Quentin Scott
Key Losses: Nijal Pearson, Eric Terry
Key Newcomers: Nighael Ceaser (JUCO), Mason Hix (JUCO), Darien Jenkins (JUCO), Dylan Dawson, Nate Martin, Addison Wallace (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Texas State basketball program reached new heights under Danny Kaspar, who spent his entire 41-year coaching career in the Lonestar state. His Bobcats never finished near the top of the Sun Belt in each of the past two years and he led them to three 20+ win seasons, the only other of which for the program came in 1994. Kaspar taught a gritty style of basketball, one that emphasized toughness and the defensive end above all else. In September, Kaspar resigned his post as head coach amid an investigation into his use of racially insensitive use toward players. In his stead steps interim head coach Terrence Johnson, an assistant under Kaspar since 2015, former Samford assistant, and former AAU coach in the Houston area. Johnson may turn out to be a fantastic head coach in his own right, but it’s always difficult replacing a legend - especially on relatively short notice.
TXST was actually a good offensive team last season – the best in Kaspar’s head coaching career and for the school in the KenPom era (dating back to 1997) – but it loses Sun Belt Player of the Year Nigal Pearson to graduation. Plenty of bodies return from a 21-11 (13-7) squad, but how will the Bobcats fare without their heart and soul?
Per Hoop Lens, TXST didn’t actually perform that differently without Pearson on the floor, though the sample size is admittedly small.
Info per Hoop Lens
Pearson was by the highest used player on the team and averaged over twice as many points as the Bobcats’ second leading scorer. He led an offense that looked to score off the bounce and, well, through Pearson pulling up wherever he pleased. While shot selection wasn’t always the best – TXST ranked 12th nationally in percentage of 2P jumpers attempted – those shots tended to fall if Pearson was shooting. Without him the Bobcats will need a new alpha, a guy who can get a bucket late in the clock or with the game on the line.
Texas State’s leader this season may be in the frontcourt. Senior forward Isiah Small, a former JUCO product, had his fair share of scoring explosions last season and is arguably the most versatile player on the roster. Small posted high rebounding rates, particularly offensively, flirted with a developing outside shot, and got to the line at a high frequency. His length, mobility, and athleticism combination is a tough matchup for opposing Sun Belt forwards, and defensively he’ll be one of TXST’s best rim protectors. Small won’t be able to handle a Pearson-level usage, but he should see a significant increase in his counting stats this season.
6’7” junior forward Alonzo Sule and JUCO transfer Nighael Ceaser will compete for the starting center spot alongside Small. Sule played well as a backup to Eric Terry last season, ranking in the top ten in both OR% and DR% in Sun Belt play. He’s a big body who can take up space on the block and serve as a reliable post threat and offensive glass eater. Ceaser is ranked as the #42 JUCO prospect in the land. The Collin College product averaged 14.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG last year and ranked 5th in the country in rebounding. His teammate, Mason Hix, and Quentin Scott will be the primary backup pieces off the pine. Hix is a stretch 4 who connected on 36.2% of his 94 deep-ball attempts last year – on a roster with very little shooting, Hix could carve out a niche role up front. Scott is a long athlete with a burgeoning jumper of his own. Freshman Nate Martin is likely a year or two away from contributing but is someone to watch down the road.
Point guard duties will be handled by a platoon of Marlin Davis and Mason Harrell, each of whom enjoyed starting streaks last season. With Pearson gone, Johnson may opt to play the pair together, something Kaspar rarely did in 2019-20. Davis is the bigger of the two, a defensive-minded slashing guard who ranked 2nd in the league in assist rate after coming off a season in which he sat due to injury. Harrell is a lightning quick 5’9” table setter who shot a scorching 44.4% from deep.
Competing for minutes on the wing will be junior Caleb Asberry, senior Shelby Adams, and JUCO transfer Darien Jenkins. Asberry was an offensive spark plug off the bench last season, a gunner who wasn’t terribly efficient when he saw the court. Adams started 17 games but most of what he did didn’t show up in the scoresheet (read: he’s a hustle-type glue-guy). Jenkins has a real shot at playing a key rotational role after averaging 16.5 PPG and shooting 39.6% from deep in JUCO last season. One of these three will need to pick up at least some of the scoring slack left by Pearson otherwise TXST’s offense could be atrocious this year. Sophomore wing Drew Tennial , JUCO transfer Addison Wallace (another Collin College import), and freshman SG Dylan Dawson will provide deeper backcourt assistance.
Even if Texas State’s offense suffers this season its defense should continue to be among the best in the league. Last year, Kaspar’s squad ranked 2nd in the Sun Belt and top 100 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, much in thanks to their ability to force turnovers, shut down shots near the rim, and make scoring in transition a living hell. As stated before, Kaspar’s teams were always tough and gritty – they will grind out a game in the 50s and like it. It’s highly likely Johnson continues this gritty mentality. The Bobcats are not a fun team to play against which makes them a perennial threat to compete near the top of the conference.
Bottom Line: It’s always easy to overreact to a star player’s departure but the fact is there’s always somebody waiting in the wings to take his place. TXST doesn’t have an obvious offensive star in the making, but guys like Small, Jenkins, and Harrell could keep the offense from sinking too far to the depths of the league. Defensively, the Bobcats should be Sharpied in as a top-five Sun Belt unit. The most concerning part of TXST’s outlook in 2020-21 is its head coaching - Kaspar was objectively a very good coach, and Terrence Johnson has yet to be the head of a DI program.
7. Louisiana
Key Returners: Cedric Russell, Dou Gueye, Mylik Wilson, Kobe Julien, Trajan Wesley
Key Losses: Jalen Johnson, PJ Hardy, Tirus Smith, Calvin Temple, Kristian Lafayette
Key Newcomers: Brayan Au (JUCO), Isaiah Richards, Michael Thomas, Durey Cadwell (JUCO / Redshirt), Devin Butts (Mississippi State)***, Theo Akwuba (Portland)***, Jacobi Gordon (California)***
*** Devin Butts, Theo Akwuba, and Jacobi Gordon are awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Last season was one of Bob Marlin’s worst during his 10-year tenure at Louisiana – it was just the second time his Ragin’ Cajuns have finished below .500 in the Sun Belt. Roster turnover and inexperience played primary roles in the Cajuns’ struggles, as did a season-ending injury to starting forward Kobe Julien. Marlin brings back three starters in addition to Julien and adds a handful of promising new pieces, suggesting 2020-21 could be a bounce back year for UL.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have been the Blazin’ Cajuns under Marlin the past ten years, usually ranking among the top 30 or 40 nationally in overall tempo. UL plays fast offensively, looking to score in transition, and speeds up opponents on the defensive end. In 2019-20, UL’s offense wasn’t nearly as potent as some of the recent iterations we’ve seen out of Lafayette. Louisiana shot a lot of threes but were one of the worst 3P shooting teams in the Sun Belt – not a winning combination. Marlin’s squads are notorious for pounding the offensive glass, something the Cajuns relied on heavily last year to score the basketball. This unfortunately has had a negative effect on the other end, as UL has been consistently burned in transition over the years. UL’s offensive strength will lie in its backcourt this season with two potential All-Conference guards leading the way – expect to see plenty of ball screen and isolation action to complement Louisiana’s transition and glass-crash game.
UL’s defense was the second worst in the league last season due in part to the aforementioned transition woes. The Cajuns allowed the 8th highest percentage of transition opportunities in the country and ranked 316th nationally in FG% defense in transition. Additionally, UL was consistently beaten on the glass on this end, partially a consequence of Marlin’s high zone usage, and destroyed near the rim. The latter will be a concern in 2020-21 with Tirus Smith and Kristian Lafayette – by far UL’s best shot blockers – leaving Lafayette this offseason.
Marlin’s starting five looks good by Sun Belt standards; it’s a group that should be capable of winning 10+ games in conference play. Cedric Russell will take on the mantle of senior leader in his final collegiate season after ranking second on the squad in scoring in 2019-20. Russell plays both on and off the ball and is somewhat of a gunner offensively, taking any shot he pleases when he pleases. For his career, Russell is an excellent three-point shooter but his percentage tanked last season with his significant uptick in usage. A return to good shooting efficiency would do wonders for UL’s Sun Belt title chances.
Russell’s backcourt partner is Mylik Wilson, the reigning Sun Belt Freshman of the Year. Wilson, like Russell, will both handle the ball and spot-up on the perimeter offensively – he’s dynamic and quick enough to take his man to the hoop and shot 36.7% from downtown in 2019-20. Defensively, Wilson is a menace on the ball, ranking 3rd in the conference in steal rate last season. He’s one of the rising stars of the Sun Belt and a player to keep an eye on this year.
Marlin has several options to combine with Russell and Wilson on the perimeter. If he opts to start Julien at the 4, JUCO transfer Brayan Au appears to be the most likely candidate to earn starting minutes. Au is a product of Ranger College (Billy Gillispie’s now former school), was an NJCAA 2nd Team All-American, and is ranked as the #51 JUCO prospect in the land. He averaged 15.8 PPG last year for the 28-3 Rangers and shot 40.5% from deep. Marlin could also go super small and let 5’9” junior Trajan Wesley run point and set the table for Russell and Wilson. Wesley is a pass-first PG who prefers slashing over shooting. Former JUCO transfer Durey Cadwell should be fully healthy from a knee injury that kept him out of the lineup last season and freshman Michael Thomas will provide extra depth at the 1 and 2 spots. Jacobi Gordon, a long wing shooter from Cal, and Devin Butts, a former 3-star recruit from Mississippi State, are currently awaiting waiver decisions to play immediately. Both guys could potentially carve out a spot in the UL rotation if eligible.
Up front, 6’9” Dou Gueye will resume his starting role at the 5 after transferring from the JUCO ranks in 2019. Gueye is one of the better rebounders in the league on both ends of the floor but offers little in the realm of shot blocking. Offensively, Gueye’s mobility and ability to face-up out past the three-point line make him a tough matchup for fellow Sun Belt centers. As mentioned, Kobe Julien likely starts at the 4 this season after starting the first 8 games of 2019-20 prior to going down with a knee injury. Julien is a talented 3/4 tweener whose versatility and strength makes him a major asset to the UL lineup in just about every statistical category. Hopefully two major knee injuries – one to each leg – won’t hold back Julien from realizing his significant potential. Off the pine, sophomore Chris Spenkuch and freshman Isaiah Richards will provide the lion’s share of backup minutes while Portland transfer Theo Akwuba awaits a waiver decision. Richards is a 4-star recruit per ESPN, a long big man brimming with potential who can finish in the post. Akwuba would be a major boost to the shot blocking and rebounding efforts, two areas that could use some bolstering.
Bottom Line: Louisiana is normally a staple in the top five of the Sun Belt, and Bob Marlin appears to have the pieces to return to that standing in 2020-21. He’ll have one of the better 1-2 punches in the conference in Russell and Wilson, a solid big man in Gueye, and a do-everything wing in Julien to help his Cajuns compete near the top of the league.
8. Appalachian State
Key Returners: Justin Forrest, Adrian Delph, Kendall Lewis, James Lewis Jr., Donovan Gregory
Key Losses: O’Showen Williams, Isaac Johnson, Hunter Seacat, Michael Bibby
Key Newcomers: Michael Almonacy (DII), DeShon Parker (James Madison)***, RJ Duhart, Xavion Brown, R.J. Wilson (Redshirt), Michael Eads, CJ Huntley, Sasha Glushkov
*** DeShon Parker is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Dustin Kerns is a wizard, plain and simple. Kerns took to the Appalachian State job like a fish to water in his first season, leading the Mountaineers to their best finish in the Sun Belt since joining the league in 2014-15 and achieving the program’s first above .500 overall record since 2010-11. For those out there who aren’t quite as psychotic as the Weave is on low-major basketball, Kerns’s previous gig was with a school called Presbyterian, a school that never sniffed success until Kerns arrived in 2017. In just his second year at the helm, Kerns led the Blue Hose to their first ever winning season and first ever postseason appearance (CIT). Hailing from the Mike Young coaching tree, Kerns has already proven to be a fantastic head coach, and the App State basketball program is in good hands with him at the forefront.
App State’s roster makeup is not unlike 2019-20 – the Mountaineers are led by a couple upperclassmen and have a largely unproven bench. Justin Forrest returns for his senior season fresh off a 1st Team All-Sun Belt appearance and looks poised to compete for the coveted conference POY award in 2020-21. Forrest has one of the greenest lights in the Sun Belt – he led the league in both usage and percentage of team shots taken last season despite never being very efficient during his three-year career. Make no mistake, “not very efficient” does NOT equal “not talented”, Forrest clearly has talent in spades and is able to score almost at will against helpless backcourt opponents in the Sun Belt.
Forrest is dynamic and quick and excels in isolation situations, which oftentimes are boosts to the App State offense and other times detrimental. Forrest handles the ball for the lion’s share of App State possessions and dictates the flow on the offensive end – he’ll be one of the most important and influential players in the Sun Belt this season.
To help Forrest and the team at large succeed this season, Kerns brought in DeShon Parker from James Madison, a 6’3” point guard who would be a nice complement to the star guard’s style of play. Parker needs a waiver from the NCAA to play immediately but given 1) the frequency of approvals this season and 2) the firing of his former coach Louis Rowe, I have to think he’ll be declared eligible. Parker started every game for the Dukes last season and ranked 6th in the CAA in FT rate and 5th in assist rate. He is a bona fide basket attacker, table setter, and sticky on-ball defender and should be a nice replacement (or even an upgrade) for O’Showen Williams. Parker’s presence would also allow Forrest to play off the ball, decreasing his offensive burden and perhaps leading to higher efficiency.
App State’s offense could use efficiency this season, as it ranked as the Sun Belt’s 10th best in 2019-20 and 220th overall. Shooting and offensive rebounding were poor, and thus the Mountaineers relied heavily on rim attack and the free throw line to score points. Only ten teams in the country had a higher FT rate than App State last season, who used primarily hand-offs and isolation situations to spotlight its terrific guards on the offensive end. Kerns’s last Presbyterian team was deadly offensively and played more of a “run-n-gun with an emphasis on ‘gun’” style versus App State’s slower paced spread attack last season.
Rounding out App State’s starting backcourt will likely be junior wing Adrian Delph, a horribly inefficient and streaky player thus far in his college career. Delph turned in a high turnover rate to go along with low-percentage shooting numbers last year and is just 30.2% from deep on 215 career 3PA. Delph’s advantage is his size – he plays much bigger than 6’3” with his strength and is able to use that to his benefit against weaker competition.
Sophomore wing Donovan Gregory will also be in the mix for playing time in the backcourt – he’s primarily a slasher offensively and offers some versatility on defense. DII transfer Michael Almonacy, who began his career at Stony Brook, will serve as a useful secondary ball handler and spot-up shooter off the pine. Almonacy averaged 15.6 PPG and shot 42.9% from distance last season. Additionally, look for freshmen guards Xavion Brown and Michael Eads to make impacts on the rotation sooner rather than later. Brown is a 3-star PG from Sacramento (about 2,604 miles from Boone, NC) who is very athletic and very explosive. His combination of shooting and athleticism is rare in a Sun Belt freshman, and he looks to have the makings of a future star down the road. Eads will be sort of a Swiss army knife with his versatility and size. Like Brown and Almonacy, Eads offers shooting behind Forrest and Parker.
The focus will be on App State’s backcourt this season, but one shouldn’t overlook the potential stud developing in the Mountaineer frontcourt. Sophomore Kendall Lewis is packed to the brim with potential to explode in 2020-21. Lewis is long and athletic and impacts the game positively on both ends of the floor. His ability to play the 3 or the 4 will give Kerns some lineup flexibility as well. Lining up alongside Lewis will either be James Lewis Jr. (unrelated) or RJ Duhart. James Lewis is a former Chattanooga transfer whose biggest asset is his strength and ability to bully people in the lane. He adds rebounding and hustle to the lineup without offering much offense. Duhart is a JUCO transfer, the #74 JUCO transfer in the land in fact. He averaged 11.8 PPG / 7.7 RPG while blocking nearly two shots per game for Northwest Mississippi CC last season. Duhart is a good athlete with both post and perimeter skills – pairing him with Kendall Lewis up front would give the Mountaineers a very dynamic frontcourt look.
Further down the frontcourt rotation lies redshirt freshman R.J. Wilson and true freshmen CJ Huntley and Sasha Glushkov. Wilson is a BIG 6’6” at 240 pounds but likely doesn’t see much playing time in 2020-21. Huntley is a SKINNY 6’9” at 190 pounds, a very long forward who can face-up already but probably needs a year or two under his belt before making an impact. Glushkov hails from Russia and boasts a 7’1” wingspan which he aptly uses to block shots and score on the block. Like Huntley, Glushkov could be useful in a year or two.
Defensively, App State was adequately solid last season. The Mountaineers ranked 3rd in the league in DR%, 5th in TO rate, and 2nd in FT rate allowed, showing a clear emphasis on protecting the paint over extending out to the three-point line (behind which they were consistently burned). Kerns presses a bit and mixes in an amorphic matchup zone in the halfcourt, a defense that fared worse than straight man-to-man last season.
Bottom Line: As a baseline, I’d expect a similar season from App State this year as it had in 2019-20. Big man Isaac Johnson is replaced by RJ Duhart, O’Showen Williams is replaced by DeShon Parker, and Justin Forrest continues to lead the way. The x-factor will be Kendall Lewis – if he breaks out in a major way, App State has real potential to compete near the very top of the league. TL;DR = high ceiling, high floor.
9. Georgia Southern
Key Returners: Elijah McCadden, David Viti
Key Losses: Quan Jackson, Ike Smith, Isaiah Crawley, Calvin Wishart, Simeon Carter, David-Lee Jones, Trey Dawkins
Key Newcomers: Zack Bryant (UAB), Grant Weatherford (IUPUI), Eric Boone (JUCO), Mackenzie McFatten (Redshirt), Kamari Brown (JUCO), Cam Bryant, Fred Odhiambo (JUCO), Kaden Archie (UTEP), Gedi Juozapaitis (DII)***, Prince Toyambi (Cincinnati), Andrei Savrasov (Texas Tech)
*** Gedi Juozapaitis can request a waiver, but likely will not get one as he is jumping from the DII ranks
Lineup:
Outlook: Change is the name of the game in Statesboro this offseason. Head coach Mark Byington took his talents to James Madison after seven years at the helm, and nearly every player on the 2019-20 Georgia Southern roster has graduated or transferred. Byington was arguably the most successful coach in GSU program history despite never reaching an NCAA Tournament. He led his Eagles to four 20+ win seasons, including three straight to finish his tenure. In Byington’s place steps Brian Burg, a former assistant at Middle Tennessee, Campbell, North Carolina Central, Little Rock, and Texas Tech. Those last two stops are the most important to note, as Burg has spent the last five seasons under the tutelage of Chris Beard, one of the best head coaching minds in the country.
Everyone including Beard talks very highly of Burg – the word “work ethic” has been uttered by multiple coaches and media personalities alike. He’s known as an excellent recruiter and a passionate coach, two ideal qualities any program would love their bench leader to have. Burg’s story is an interesting one, and if you have an Athletic subscription I suggest you check out this piece by Brian Hamilton.
Burg has his work cut out for him this season but, thankfully, four of his five non-grad transfers have received waivers to play right away.
At the very least, Burg is going to have athletes and a potent backcourt. Junior wing Elijah McCadden, the only returning Eagle who scored over 3.0 PPG last season, will look to take a step up in usage without the likes of Quan Jackson and Ike Smith by his side. McCadden really improved his shooting last season, upping his 3P% from 23.1% on 26 attempts as a freshman to 36.6% on 112 attempts as a sophomore. He also has the strength necessary to succeed driving to the cup through weaker defenders. With a thin frontcourt this year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCadden play the “4” in 4-guard lineups.
Lining up alongside McCadden in the GSU backcourt will be UAB transfer Zack Bryant and one of either JUCO transfer Eric Boone, JUCO transfer Kamari Brown, or IUPUI transfer Grant Weatherford. Bryant, aka “Scootie”, was flat-out awesome when he played at UAB, earning a spot on the All-CUSA 3rd Team in 2019. He’s a dynamic floor leader capable of playing on or off the ball, a natural scorer who should find a spot on the Sun Belt’s All-Conference team at season’s end. Boone is the 26th rated JUCO prospect, a John A. Logan product who played next to Jay Scrubb last season. With Bryant and Boone, Burg would have a dual-PG lineup, one that would be incredibly dangerous on the offensive end of the floor. Boone averaged 15.5 PPG / 4.6 RPG / 6.8 APG at Logan and shot 38% from three-point land. Brown was also a three-point marksman at his JUCO, hitting 42% of his outside shots, but he also brings extreme athleticism – he’s one of the fiercest two-footed dunkers I’ve seen in a player his size. Weatherford started 25 games for IUPUI last year and ranked 4th in the Horizon in minutes. Also a combo guard, Weatherford can provide shooting and scoring and also give the Eagles steals on the defensive end.
Returning wing David Viti could see a large boost in his playing time – he has enough size to sneak by as a “4” in small lineups and functions primarily as a spot-up threat offensively. UTEP transfer Kaden Archie could step into the starting five – he was a 4-star recruit out of HS but has yet to live up to that billing at TCU or UTEP. DII transfer Gedi Juozapaitis would also play a key role if granted a waiver; he made 112 threes last season and converted them at a 46% clip.
The frontcourt is where GSU’s troubles could lie. Freshman forward Cam Bryant has potential to be a good player down the road with his length, athleticism, and motor, but it’s unclear how effective he can be right away. Redshirt freshman Mackenzie McFatten was a raw prospect coming into Stateboro last offseason but will almost certainly be asked to contribute in some way. Then there’s Eastern Washington transfer Ralueke Orizu who is technically a walk-on but a guy who should see floor time in 2020-21. Orizu began his career at Savannah State where he scored 19 PTS against Morgan State back in 2017-18; he never saw the court as a member of EWU. JUCO transfer Fred Obhiambo could play a major role due to size alone - he’s a lanky 7-footer with good shot0blocking ability. Transfers Prince Toyambi (Cincinnati) and Andrei Savrasov (Texas Tech) will bolster the thin frontcourt afte receiving waivers. Toyambi is a tough big but has yet to play in college. Savrasov is a stretch-4 who played sparingly for the Red Raiders last year.
Stylistically we can speculate what Burg will do on either end, but until we see the Eagles on the court in 2020-21 this aspect is still an unknown. It seems likely Burg will borrow much of his game plan from Chris Beard, which means we should expect to see a squad that emphasizes toughness, hustle, grit, and defense. Offensively, this might be a far cry from Byington’s run-n-gun squads of the past, as Beard often slowed tempo down and played more in the halfcourt. Burg has the personnel to succeed in an uptempo offense should he choose to go that route. Defensively, Burg likely brings the “pack-line” / “no-middle” mentality to Statesboro, a defensive style that worked wonders for Beard & Burg in the Sun Belt at Little Rock back in 2015-16. This especially seems likely given the lack of size on the current roster. Byington ran a lot of 1-3-1 zone, not something I’d expect to see a Chris Beard disciple resort to.
Bottom Line: Don’t expect a major tumble down the standings for Georgia Southern despite the loss of its head coach and the return of just 18% of last year’s minutes. Burg is by all accounts a homerun hire and his Eagles will have one of the best backcourts in the Sun Belt in 2020-21. I don’t think GSU wins the league, but it wouldn’t shock me to see them creep into the top four of the standings by season’s end.
10. Arkansas State
Key Returners: Marquis Eaton, Caleb Fields, Christian Willis, Antwon Jackson
Key Losses: Melo Eggleston, Canberk Kus, Jerry Johnson, Malik Brevard, JJ Matthews
Key Newcomers: Markise Davis (JUCO), Keyon Wesley (JUCO), Carter Jeffries (JUCO), Tim Holland (JUCO), Caleb London, Norchad Omier, Malcolm Farrington (Redshirt), Lazar Grbovic, Mario Fantina
Lineup:
Outlook: 2019-20 was a roller coaster of a season for Mike Balado and the Arkansas State Red Wolves. ASU pulled two huge knockout punches in non-con play with victories on the road over Colorado State and Tulsa, suggesting it was safe to say the Wolves were WAY better than anticipated heading into the season. After starting Sun Belt play 7-4, ASU looked to be a legitimate league contender and poised to push for a high seed in the conference tourney, but then the regression hit like a ton of bricks. Arkansas State lost eight straight, three of which were by three points, and needed the heroics of Marquis Eaton to defeat Georgia Southern to close out the season 8-12 in conference. Still, 2019-20 was Balado’s best season at ASU since taking over for the superlative Grant McCasland in 2017 – with his two best players from last year’s squad returning plus a gaggle of newbies from the JUCO ranks, the Wolves promise to be a feisty bunch once again in the Sun Belt.
Like many middling teams, Arkansas State had a stark dichotomy on the two ends of the floor. On offense, the Wolves ranked 4th in the Sun Belt in adjusted efficiency propelled by the nation’s best free throw rate. Its talented guards looked to attack the rim on every possession, especially in transition where the Wolves frequently looked to push the issue. The offensive glass was also a key source of scoring, as was superb ball movement by the team as a whole – ASU ranked 22nd in the country in assist rate last season. While ASU largely eschewed the three-pointer, it shot the ball well from behind the arc, a trend that should continue in 2020-21.
Defense was a different story. Balado’s bunch was the worst defensive squad in the Sun Belt, giving up far too many easy looks near the rim and constantly sending teams to the free throw line. ASU pressed at a top 50 rate in an effort to slow opposing teams down on offense – presses usually consisted of token man looks, but trapping schemes were thrown in as well. In the halfcourt, the Wolves zoned at a top 60 rate, oftentimes a 2-3 matchup look where the bottom outside defenders cheated up the line to discourage three-point chances. While we shouldn’t expect a revelation on this end – ASU has ranked 333rd, 285th, and 284th in defense under Balado – there’s reason to believe defense could be improved in 2020-21 with an influx of some serious athleticism and length across multiple positions.
A common theme this year in the Sun Belt will be the excellence of the backcourts across the league, and Arkansas State will have one of the best 1-2 punches in Marquis Eaton and Caleb Fields. Eaton was a 3rd Team All-Sun Belt member last season after really buckling down on past turnover issues. A combo guard who play on or off the ball, Eaton is a terrific scorer from both outside the arc and off the bounce. He ranked 3rd in the Sun Belt in 3P% in conference play and got to the charity stripe at a high rate. Eaton also possesses that “go-to” gene – he’s a player who ASU can count on in crunch time to get a bucket and carry his squad.
Fields will be the primary ball handler again this year following a very good freshman season in which he posted impressive assist-to-turnover numbers despite being immediately thrown into the proverbial fire. Fields ranked 3rd in the league in FT rate and shot the ball well from deep; he excels out of the pick-n-roll and uses his elite quickness to attack in the open floor. He’ll look to breakout in a major way in his sophomore season.
Senior guard Christian Willis will also be a factor in the backcourt rotation; he started 15 games last season and can handle the ball in a pinch. Willis is most valuable for his shooting, knocking down 40% of his 55 3PA attempts last season. He’ll compete with freshmen Caleb London and Mario Fantina, redshirt freshman Malcolm Farrington, and JUCO transfer Carter Jeffries for playing time off the pine in the backcourt. London was a one of the highest rated recruits in the state of Arkansas this past year and will bring athleticism, scoring, and size to the guard position. Jeffries was the Player of the Year in his JUCO conference last season, a 17.2 PPG scorer and 37% 3P shooter on a high volume (though not as high as his ASU roster profile suggests):
At 6’5”, Jeffries brings size to the backcourt, like London, and offers even more shooting to the roster. Farrington will likely assume a deeper bench role with the newcomers’ arrivals.
Frontcourt playing time appears to be wide open heading into the season with the departures of JJ Matthews, Canberk Kus, and Malik Brevard. Sophomore Antwon Jackson has a good shot at locking down the starting center spot after proving to be a solid offensive rebounder his rookie year. Jackson is undersized height-wise for a big, and he plays below the rim, but his 265-pound frame is tough for any opponent to move in the paint.
Balado has three attractive options to start alongside in the frontcourt next to or in place of Jackson. JUCO transfer Keyon Wesley averaged 12.1 PPG and 6.5 RPG for a very good USC Salk squad last year. He’s a long athletic forward who can step out and shoot a bit. Fellow JUCO transfer Tim Holland, the 98th ranked JUCO prospect in the land, signed with UT Arlington initially out of high school and averaged 15.7 PPG and 11.1 RPG at his JUCO last year. Coaches rave about Holland’s hustle, rebounding, and athleticism. Finally, freshman forward Norchad Omier should carve out a role in some fashion after averaging a ridiculous 26.7 PPG and 20.3 RPG in high school last year (he posted a double-double in every single game). Omier’s rebounding instincts are elite – he seems to have magnets in his hands that attract the basketball – and his motor is excellent. Bonus trivia: per the ASU website, Omier is the first Nicaraguan to sign a DI basketball scholarship.
Balado could also start JUCO transfer Markise Davis, the 71st ranked JUCO prospect, at the 4 giving ASU a smaller look with a potential Fields / Willis / Eaton backcourt. Davis is a sizable 3/4 tweener who drastically improved his outside shooting his sophomore season in JUCO. Perhaps Davis’s biggest contribution to the lineup will be his defense – his length and athleticism should allow him to wreak havoc in trapping situations and disturb smaller matchups. Serbian freshman Lazar Grbovic will provide depth at the 4.
Bottom Line: In the muddled mess of the Sun Belt squarely sits Arkansas State. The Red Wolves will once again be a scrappy team who can win against any conference foe on any given night. Balado has more athleticism and shooting on his roster this year, suggesting an improvement is in the cards. A league record hovering around the .500 mark feels about right for the squad.
Tier 4
11. Troy
Key Returners: Zay Williams, Desmond Williams, Nick Stampley, Khalyl Waters, Jakevan Leftridge
Key Losses: Ty Gordon, Darian Adams, Tahj Small, Davion Thomas, Atakan Sahinkaya, Charles Norman, KJ Simon
Key Newcomers: Kieffer Punter (JUCO), Rory Pantophlet (JUCO), Lydell Geffrard (JUCO), Antwan Burnett, Duke Miles, Kam Woods, Miles Mendes, Christian Turner
Lineup:
Outlook: We thought life post Jordon Varnado would be tough – from a gambling perspective the all-time Troy great was worth at least 8-10 points when he went down with injury back in 2018-19 – and last season’s Trojan performance proved us right. Scott Cross was handed a clear rebuilding situation, and though his squad managed to sweep Georgia State, beat Texas State on the road, and upset Little Rock at home, his Trojans finished dead last in the Sun Belt for the second straight year. Cross has proven his ability to build a program with his time spent at UT Arlington, but we may need to wait a couple more years before seeing Troy near the top of the league standings again. Despite having just one senior on last year’s squad, the Trojans lost seven rotational players from 2019-20 as the transfer portal sucked out much of Cross’s roster. However, Troy’s recruiting class is receiving a lot of hype for Sun Belt standards, and the Trojans return a solid core with which to build off last season’s 9-22 (5-13) record.
Troy had the worst offense in the Sun Belt last season, sporting the lowest eFG% in the conference despite turning in the 6th-best 3P%. The Trojans relied heavily on the three-ball (#1 in 3PA rate in the league and 30th nationally) and transition to score points – getting to the rim proved to be quite challenging. Cross has historically played very fast and there’s reason to believe the Trojan tempo ramps up in 2020-21 with a roster that appears to be more talented on paper. Added size will also help Troy’s rim woes, as the Trojans were one of the smallest teams in the country last season even before Zay Williams went down with injury.
Defensively, Troy fared slightly better than the offensive end though it still finished 10th in the Sun Belt in adjusted efficiency. The glass was about the only thing Troy did right last season – the Trojans were eviscerated near the basket and in transition. Cross ran zone and full-court press at top 30 rates in the country – his half-court zone was a matchup variety that fared slightly worse than his team’s straight man, and his full-court press ranked in the 76th percentile from a PPP basis, looking to trap ball handlers in corners and near the timeline. Year two of Cross should bring more success on this end of the floor, but we shouldn’t expect a gargantuan leap from Troy’s 10th-place 2019-20 finish.
The aforementioned Zay Williams was arguably Troy’s best player last season, so when he went down with injury and missed essentially the entire second half of the year the Trojans struggled. Williams was the one frontcourt player on the roster who could score consistently, hanging 28 points in a 38-point loss to Indiana, and should be one of Troy’s go-to options this season. Williams gives the Trojans a lob target offensively, able to play above the rim and run the floor like a wing. Defensively, he’s a decent shot blocker and strong rebounder.
Desmond Williams is Troy’s other “big” returner, a 6’1” sophomore guard who could lead the Trojans in scoring this year. Williams redshirted the first seven games of last season before having that lifted and starting 21 games to finish the year. He’ll handle most of Troy’s point guard duties and double as one of the squad’s best shooters after connecting on 38.7% of his three-point attempt last year. On the other side of the ball, Williams is a terrific on-ball defender who uses his quickness and length to disrupt opposing ball handlers.
Troy’s three other returners, Nick Stampley, Khalyl Waters, and Jekevan Leftridge should all play key roles in the rotation this season. Stampley is an undersized forward who can play the 4 or 5 thanks to his strength and offensive rebounding ability. Despite standing just 6’6”, Stampley ranked 8th in the conference last year in block rate and 10th in OR%. While he attempted 33 threes last year, Stampley is not a threat to pull from distance (he made 4) – instead his value lies as a rim attacker who can get to the free throw line consistently. Leftridge is a big guard at 6’7” 195 pounds who can play and guard multiple positions on the floor. Like Desmond Williams, Leftridge redshirted the first seven games of last year before ultimately being asked to contribute. A jack of all trades, Leftridge pitches in on both ends of the floor in several different areas. Waters, a redshirt senior in his second season at Troy, will be a staple in the wing rotation and could earn a few starts in his final collegiate hurrah.
As mentioned earlier, Troy’s recruiting class is quite good, both from a transfer and high school perspective. Tyler JC transfers Kieffer Punter and Rory Pantophlet likely have the biggest impacts of the newcomers this season after both assumed key roles for one of the best JUCOs in the land last year. Punter is the brother of former Tennessee guard Kevin Punter and the 73rd ranked JUCO prospect in the land. He averaged 11.9 PPG and shot 46.1% from deep last year, good enough for Cross to likely include him in the starting five as a spot-up sharpshooter on night one. Pantophlet will help solidify Troy’s soft interior – he grabbed 9.1 RPG last season to go along with 9.1 PPG. Fellow JUCO transfer Lydell Geffrard is a big post player capable of getting and holding good position on the block – he’ll fill a deeper frontcourt reserve role this season.
Of the incoming freshmen look for 6’5” wing Antwan Burnett to have the greatest impact. Burnett is a 4-star recruit per ESPN and also received multiple looks from DI schools for football. He has the strength and shooting chops to be successful immediately in the Sun Belt and is certainly a player to watch down the road. Kam Woods, a three-time Alabama 6A POY and 3,871-point HS scorer, will add an offensive punch off the pine. He’s a knockdown shooter who flat out scores. Duke Miles, a lanky CG, projects as a solid on-ball defender and contributor in a year or two. Christian Turner is a promising defensive PF who can stretch the floor offensively. Miles Mendes is a versatile wing known for his athleticism.
Bottom Line: Troy gets better this season but it’s unclear if that will be enough to bring the Trojans out of the basement of the Sun Belt. The league is very competitive this year with only UL Monroe looking like an easy target to pick off for that illustrious 11th place finish. Cross is building something good down in Alabama – he’ll have this program in tip-top shape before too long.
12. Louisiana Monroe
Key Returners: Chris Efretuei, Langston Powell, Erie Olonade, Josh Nicholas
Key Losses: Michael Ertel, Tyree White, JD Williams, Jalen Hodge, Youry White, De’Andre Bernard, Elijah Ifejeh
Key Newcomers: Russell Harrison (JUCO), Marco Morency (JUCO), Elijah Gonzales (JUCO), Luke Phillips (JUCO / Redshirt), Thomas Howell, Johnnie Williams IV, Zaakir Sawyer, D’Marcus Hall, Koreem Ozier (Sacred Heart)
Lineup:
Outlook: Nine of ULM’s 13 scholarship players did not begin their careers at ULM – the other four are freshmen. Head coach Keith Richard seems to prefer scouring the JUCO level for talent, and for the most part it’s worked out for him during his tenure in Monroe. Last season, however, was a disaster. The Warhawks, battered by injuries, tied for last place in the Sun Belt and checked in at their lowest KenPom rating since 2017. Richard has experienced both highs and lows at ULM, contending for a conference title in 2015 and 2016 and winning just 2 league games three separate times. 2020-21, on paper, appears to be another tough season for the Warhawks – they lose their three best players to transfer and graduation and return just four “key” guys, all of whom were mid-to-low usage role players in 2019-20.
Hope for conference relevance lies in the incoming JUCO class, which features two top 50 prospects and a former Division I point guard. Russell Harrison, the 7th rated JUCO prospect in the land, likely leads ULM this scoring this season and looks poised to push for All-Conference honors. The 6’7” wing was a 1st Team NJCAA All-American last season after averaging 18.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG and shooting 42% from downtown. Harrison has plenty of range on his jumper, he’s versatile, he’s long, and he can flat out score. Given ULM’s relative lack of competent frontcourt bodies, Harrison could see a lot of time at the de facto 4-spot in Richard’s spread attack.
Marco Morency, the 47th rated JUCO prospect in the country, and Elijah Gonzales, a former Saint Peter’s Peacock, will both fight for starting gigs in their first seasons in Monroe. Morency is a combo guard who averaged 17.6 PPG last year at Daytona State College – he’s a good downhill driver and scorer and can handle the ball when needed. Gonzales started 20 games for Saint Peter’s in 2017-18 and ranked 11th in the country in assists last season at Clarendon College as a teammate of Russell Harrison. The dynamic table setter brings experience and ball security to a backcourt looking to replace one of the school’s all-time great guards in Michael Ertel.
Competing with Gonzales for starting PG duties will be 5’11” redshirt senior Erie Olonade. Olonade came on strong at the end of last year, earning regular starter minutes. He’ll need to reign in his turnover issues of last season, but he could also be a valuable off-ball piece after posting a 39.1% three-point clip in 2019-20. Two other returners, Langston Powell and Josh Nicholas, will compete with the aforementioned JUCO newcomers for playing time. Powell started a handful of games last year and did a bit of everything on the floor without being “elite” at anything. He’s a long lefty wing who should be a regular in Richard’s rotation this season. Nicholas can play on or off the ball and brings value as a shooter and on-ball defender.
Sacred Heart transfer Koreem Ozier will likely start at the 2-spot after being granted a waiver for immediate eligibility. A 3rd Team All-NEC selection last year, Ozier is a high-scoring guard who shot 35.3% from deep on very high usage (5th highest used player in the NEC) for a good Pioneer squad. Rounding out Richard’s backcourt / wing rotation will be freshmen Johnnie Williams IV, Zaakir Sawyer, and D’Marcus Hall. I’m not sure any of them see a ton of time this year, but Williams seems to have the clearest path. He’s an athletic wing out of Putnam Science Academy who can shoot a bit and contribute defensively. Sawyer will provide more athleticism while Hall adds shooting to the fold.
Inside, ULM will turn to senior big man Chris Efretuei to once again anchor the paint. Efretuei is a beast on the glass, ranking 3rd in the Sun Belt and 56th nationally in OR% last season. Defensively, he’s the key part of a squad who disallows everything at the rim, ranking 6th in the league last year in block rate. Offensively, Efretuei is mainly a catch-and-dunk / put-back sort of player, though he did have his moments posting on the block. Redshirt sophomore Luke Phillips and freshman Thomas Howell are Richard’s only other true forwards on the roster. Phillips, an Australian native, is a tall, skinny center with long arms. Howell is a native of Natchitoches (Northwestern State’s town) and received interest from several DI schools.
Offensively, the Warhawks were poor last season, and without the aid of Ertel are likely to be poor again in 2020-21. ULM was the slowest offensive squad in the conference last year and the second worst from an adjusted efficiency standpoint. Bad shot selection (lots of 2P jumpers) and an inability to get to the rim plagued the Warhawks who relied primarily on isolation play-types and Ertel cutting off screens to score. Outside of Harrison and Ozier, there aren’t any proven scorers on this roster, so offense may be hard to come by.
Defensively, ULM wasn’t great last year but it was far better on this end than on the other. The Warhawks force tough shots, play mostly man, and encourage opponents to play fast. Poor transition defense, a lack of ball pressure, and poor defensive rebounding hurt the Warhawks last season. This year’s squad should be able to be at least as effective defensively as last year’s, but a major improvement seems unlikely.
Bottom Line: ULM loses too much talent, returns too little, and adds too many unproven bodies to be considered anything higher than a bottom-tier Sun Belt team this season. Harrison needs to be a star, Ozier needs to score in bunches, and one of Morency, Gonzales, or Olonade needs to ascend into a reliable 2nd or 3rd mid-usage option for the Warhawks to fight and claw to a mid-tier league finish.