-Matt Cox
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Isaiah Miller, Sr., UNC Greensboro
Coach of the Year: Greg Gary, Mercer
Newcomer of the Year: Ledarrius Brewer, R Jr., East Tennessee St.
Freshman of the Year: Marcus Niblack, Fr., East Tennessee St.
Special thanks to Western Carolina’s very own Carlos Dotson for serving as our SoCon insider - his takes are sprinkled throughout the analysis below. For the record, he’s officially picking his boy Mason Faulkner to usurp Isaiah Miller for Player of the Year.
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Furman
Key Returners: Noah Gurley, Clay Mounce, Alex Hunter, Mike Bothwell, Jalen Slawson
Key Losses: Jordan Lyons
Key Newcomers: Joe Anderson, Garrett Hien
Lineup:
Outlook:
Dear Fortune Magazine,
When will you be releasing the ‘40 Under 40’ series for college basketball coaches? Just asking for a friend…
Regards,
The Weave
We haven’t heard back from Fortune yet, but surely, it’s in the works. For now, we’ll fill the gap with our own resounding endorsement of Bob Richey, the 37-year old coaching prodigy who’s taking Furman basketball to the moon and beyond. Simply put, Richey is the prevailing reason why the Paladins sit atop our projected 2021 SoCon standings – though, his team’s not too shabby either…
Granted, we might be a weeeee bit biased. Richey was nice enough to come on our podcast this summer, when he opened up the kimono to some, though not all, of the secret stuff behind Furman’s ascension into a perennial mid-major powerhouse:
Great achievements start with great expectations. Per the clip above, not just anyone can waltz on the floor for Furman. Being good enough is only half the battle – Richey and his staff gravitate toward adaptable, highly skilled players, a prototype they believe can be molded into a versatile offensive weapon.
Noah Gurley and Jalen Slawson are prime examples of this. You wouldn’t know it from watching last season’s film, but according to Richey both Gurley and Slawson played primarily on the wing during their grassroots days on the AAU circuit. Richey pitched them a vision of sliding up the lineup to play the 4 and 5, an adjustment geared towards optimizing their versatility without abandoning their pristine perimeter skill sets. Fast forward two years later and there’s seemingly no weakness in their offensive repository. Pick-n-pops? Check. Face-up drives? Check. Interior post-ups? Check again.
You can toss Clay Mounce into that hyper-versatile bucket as well. Many had Mounce pegged as the second coming of Matt Rafferty, the Paladins’ do-everything forward who graduated in 2019. Mounce would’ve been the main attraction on last year’s squad had it not been for Slawson and Gurley bursting on to the scene. Now, Richey has three near replicas of Rafferty to various degrees, armed with a triumvirate of inside-out forwards. The acreage of space on the floor this trio creates is boundless – you could drive a dump truck through the cutting and driving lanes in the stretched-out offense. The analytic shot chart algos proves just how juicy the shots Furman typically gets off – just refer to Dribble-handoff.com’s top-10 ranking in Shot Quality:
There’s nothing more soothing than knowing a two-year starter is back to steer the ship at point guard. Alex Hunter is an unflappable floor general and masterful conductor of Richey’s offense. Above all, he’s as dependable as they come – Hunter hasn’t missed a game in three seasons in Greenville and doesn’t plan to snap that streak anytime soon. He doesn’t need to take matters into his own hands with the laundry list of options scattered around him at all times.
On the heels of Jordan Lyons’ departure, Hunter will confide in a new backcourt companion this season, Mike Bothwell. Richey didn’t shy away from name dropping Bothwell on multiple occasions during our short-and-sweet convo earlier this summer. The Paladins’ ace in the hole last year will finally get his moment in the sun this season. He punched way above his reserve weight class all season, prompting Richey to promote him to full-time starter late in the year.
The Paladins’ top-5 is bulletproof, but the reserve reinforcements remain relatively unproven. Richey said he’s hoping four of the roughly seven guys vying for minutes off the pine will fill in the rest of the rotation. He’s optimistic that both freshmen, Joe Anderson and Garrett Hien, are ready to take the training wheels off, but my colleague Jim sees shades of former Texas Tech standout Matt Mooney in sophomore Colin Kenney. Jaylon Pugh is the obvious 6th man frontrunner, a sparingly used combo guard in line for a big bump in minutes.
Bottom Line: The Paladins will have to adjust to life without Jordan Lyons, a stone-cold killer and late game closer. In this versatile, balanced offensive attack, it’s rare Richey has to say, “Hey [guy], go get us a bucket”, but Lyons was there to deliver when needed last season. Anointing Bothwell as the alpha replacement might seem farfetched, but one would’ve applied that same skepticism toward Lyons heading into his junior year, when he evolved from a streaky reserve into an All-Conference caliber player. My Bothwell bullishness, coupled with the continuity from last year – a critical factor in this COVID disrupted offseason – certifies Furman as the SoCon frontrunner in 2021.
2. UNC Greensboro
Key Returners: Isaiah Miller, Kaleb Hunter, Keyshaun Langley, Angelo Allegri, Michael Hueitt Jr.
Key Losses: James Dickey, Malik Massey, Kyrin Galloway
Key Newcomers: Jarrett Hensley, AJ McGinnis, Hayden Koval (Central Arkansas)
Lineup:
Outlook: Alright, Fortune seriously… where we at on that ‘40 Under 40’ series? The SoCon coaches NEED their respect like we need air to breathe…
Beneath Wes Miller’s galvanizing local boy hero aura lies one of the most sophisticated basketball minds in the game of basketball. Picking Miller and these Spartans as runner up makes me sick to my stomach, especially with Tasmanian Devil Isaiah Miller back for one last stand, but here I am walking the plank.
The bedrock of Miller’s rise to coaching stardom is an impenetrable defensive wall, spearheaded by Miller’s lightning quick hands and feet at the point of attack. The two-time reigning SoCon Defensive Player of the Year – yes, that’s right. Miller’s seeking his third straight DPOTY trophy – is like an unchained pit bull at the head of the press, swarming from side to side in constant pursuit of the rock. There’s nothing conservative about this defense. The pressure is unrelenting, showing no signs of relaxation once ballhandlers cross the timeline – that is, if they even get they far.
Then, the press subtly morphs into a deny-everything man-to-man, violently disrupting opposing half-court offensive sets. The beauty of the press is that it sucks precious seconds off the shot clock, leaving little time for offenses to work the ball side to side and find an open look. This reduces the chance of any defensive breakdown, as the shortened shot clock allows for only one or two offensive ball reversals. And for the last three seasons, even if you managed to jump through all those hoops and find daylight heading toward the rim, James Dickey and Kyrin Galloway were waiting at the gate…
Behind the two-pronged venus flytrap of Dickey and Galloway, UNCG led the SoCon in blocked shots for three straight seasons. Not only did their rim protection deter easy looks at the rim, but their blocks acted as lighter fuel for the Spartans’ fast break going the other way. As the chart below shows, losing Dickey and Galloway’s interior presence is a double whammy for the Spartans’ impassable defense:
Notice the defensive 2-point field goal percentage disparity between the on floor and off floor splits. Incumbent forwards Mohammed Abdulsalam and Bas Leyte were next in line to fill their shoes, but recently green lit transfer Hayden Koval seems like a no-brainer plug-and-play at the 5. A true 7-footer, Koval makes Dickey and Galloway look like shrimps. His arm pit consumed a steady diet of basketballs in the Southland, but the SoCon is a clear step up in competition. Additionally, questions remain about his fit in Miller’s system, given his subpar lateral quickness and discomfort venturing outside the lane. High-flying redshirt freshman Dericko Williams might be Miller’s secret weapon waiting to be unleashed, a fungible athlete more akin to Dickey and Galloway.
The defensive side of the ball warrants extra attention because it often subsidizes the Spartans’ minor offensive deficiencies. Isaiah Miller is once again the main character here. Miller’s production didn’t taper off last season, but his efficiency certain did. This runoff was partly due to losing Francis Alonso’s protection in the backcourt, thrusting Miller into the clear-cut number one option on offense. Still, there’s no need to dress up the obvious holes in Miller’s game – he’s an outright bad shooter.
The off-centered hitch in his release explains the 24% 3-point percentage last season, a year after making 27% from downtown. Hoop-math.com sheds light on his biggest fallacy: a love affair with mid-range pull-ups. 47% of Miller’s 538 field goal attempts last season were categorized as ‘2-point jumpshots’, where he made 36% of those attempts. Let’s get mathematical for a second to illustrate why this is problematic: the expected point value of any possession where Miller settles for a 2-point pull up is a ghastly 0.72 (2*.36). Granted, this omits the offensive rebounding component of the offensive efficiency equation, a big boost for the Spartans’ scoring attack last year, but that’s bound to regress this season without Dickey. If I were on the UNCG staff, I would blow up a poster of these statistical splits and superglue it to Miller’s bedroom ceiling, along with the accompanying directive, “GET TO THE F%*$%& RIM, YOU ARE A HUMAN SPACESHIP.” Then, calmly, I’d point to the fact that only 31% of his attempts were at the rim, where he converted 63%.
Despite those efficiency nitpicks, the advanced statistics don’t account for his otherworldly explosiveness and all that comes with it. The game-breaking speed forces defenses to heavily tilt their coverage towards him when he’s on the move. It’s rare to see a poor outside shooter garner this type of gravitational pull on the perimeter, but Miller’s burst is that scary.
Here’s the thing. Miller doesn’t need to carry the scoring load offensively. The ammunition at his disposal is lethal: Keyshaun Langley (last year’s SoCon Co-Freshman of the Year), Kaleb Hunter (10.3 PPG last year, despite playing through a bum ankle), Angelo Allegri (part-time starting wing), Michael Hueitt Jr. (3-and-D shooting guard), along with rookies A.J. McGinnis (sniper) and Jarrett Hensley (4-star prospect) comprise the deepest supporting class in the conference. Coach Miller talked about recalibrating Player Miller’s internal wiring from ‘scorer’ to ‘facilitator’ this season, which would reap enormous benefits for the offense.
Bottom Line: ‘Loaded’ is the word that comes to mind when scanning the roster. There are two stud freshmen who would start for eight of the 10 teams in this league that will have a hard time cracking the primary rotation. The elephant in the room is the loss of Dickey and Galloway, particularly Dickey, who was a one-man-wrecking crew at the back end of the press. The frontcourt is still overflowing with depth, but whether the quality is on par with Dickey and Galloway remains to be seen.
Tier 2
3. Mercer
Key Returners: Ross Cummings, Jeffrey Gary, Maciej Bender, Kamar Robertson, James Glisson III
Key Losses: Djordje Dimitrijevic, Ethan Stair
Key Newcomers: Neftali Alvarez (Fairfield), Felipe Haase (South Carolina)
Lineup:
Outlook: Prognosticating college basketball teams doesn’t always follow a simple formula. In other words, clinging to the Key Returners – Key Losses + Key Newcomers equation ignores critical nuances in appraising how much a team might improve or regress, relative to the year prior.
That’s my rebuttal to those scratching their heads as to how Mercer cracked the top-3 in our preseason SoCon predictions.
Put last year’s skewed conference records aside for a second – for reference, Mercer finished 4th in the standings, but Wofford, Western Carolina and Chattanooga were all *better*, per the notable numerical metrics (the NET, KenPom, etc.). In other words, Mercer was effectively the seventh best team in the league last year.
So, you might be asking, “How can the 7th best team lose two All-Conference players (Djordje Dimitrijevic and Ethan Stair), and leapfrog four spots in the overall leaderboard?”
This isn’t a typical Ewing Theory, ‘addition by subtraction’ take. Dimitrijevic and Stair were prolific offensive players in their own unique way. Rather, this largely unknown roster is oozing with upside, which is underscored by the ultimate enabler: Greg Gary. As a former Matt Painter disciple, Purdue’s fingerprints are all over Mercer’s offense. The surgical execution. The complex screening sequences. The cerebral shot-selection.
I asked Western Carolina’s Carlos Dotson to pick the toughest team he had to prepare for last season? He noted ETSU for the obvious reasons, but then tossed two more names in the mix:
“Wofford and Mercer’s offensive sets I hated, too. Their plays were so good.”
Lady luck threw some injury curve balls at Gary last year, but the first-year head coach refused to flinch. Above all was the loss of his prized inheritance, Ross Cummings, who was de-commissioned before conference play began due to a stubborn sprained ankle. Cummings was a unanimous preseason All-Conference selection this time last year, on the heels of finishing 6th in the league in scoring during his junior campaign. Luckily, Cummings was awarded a medical redshirt, thrusting him back in the limelight for a do-over in 2021.
A healthy Cummings should flourish in this offense. Remember how Purdue’s Ryan Kline was weaponized during the Boilermakers’ 2019 run? Cummings, along with Gary’s nephew, Greg Gary, will be molded into similar tools in this system – that is, dangerous assassins in constant motion within a merry-go-round of screens. This sharpshooting tandem will be on the receiving end of two precise distributors, Fairfield transfer Netfali Alvarez and TikTok star Kamar Robertson, who took home All-Freshman team honors in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Alvarez is a prototypical point guard, while Robertson is a cut from the combo guard cloth, but both can throw it in the ocean when defenses overplay.
Sticking with the Purdue comparisons, Gary will deploy a downsized version of Matt Haarms, Maciej Bender, for a second straight season up front. At his best, the former West Virginia transfer is a beast in the paint, blessed with crisp footwork and soft hands with size that dwarfs most SoCon frontlines. Mercer fans would like to see more consistency, though. He’s not the most reliable finisher around the rim, but the Polish big man is still a takeover threat on any given night – refer to last year’s 17-points in 17 minutes against Chattanooga or 19-point, 10-rebound, 4-block effort against Furman.
Felipe Haase is the other notable transfer addition, the odds-on favorite to slide into the starting 4 spot. He’s in store for an uptick in production after accepting a reduced role for South Carolina in 2019. Haase embodies stereotypical international big man qualities. His skill is refined, and his basketball IQ is off the charts. And oh yeah, he can stroke it from distance (shot 41% from 3-point range in 2019). Victor Bafutto is another force to be reckoned with in the Bears’ frontline, but chronic fouling has kept his minute count low – he’ll likely forfeit minutes to Haase.
I almost forgot about James Glisson III, an athletic wing with the multi-positional defensive DNA every coach dreams about. Glisson notched starts in the first eight games of the season last year but saw his minutes plateau during the dogs days of conference play.
Bottom Line: Gary’s juggling act last year with all the injuries that piled up was impressive, especially in a system that typically demands rotational continuity. Without Dimitrijevic and Stair, this is why Cummings’ health is a critical swing factor this year. He’s only played one full season without interruption since arriving in Macon back in 2016 – not a great sign for his 2021 prognosis. But if he can stay healthy, the Bears’ might boast the best offense in the league, which could give them the edge in claiming that wide open 3rd spot on the SoCon podium.
4. Wofford
Key Returners: Storm Murphy, Tray Hollowell, Messiah Jones, Ryan Larson, Isaiah Bigelow
Key Losses: Chevez Goodwin, Nathan Hoover, Trevor Stumpe
Key Newcomers: Nick Pringle, Sam Godwin, Keaton Turner, Max Klesmit, BJ Mack (South Florida)
Lineup:
Outlook: Jay McAuley’s first season as program director was a wild ride. The Wofford athletic department had to feel warm and fuzzy about the program trajectory in early February after the Terriers raced out to an 8-3 conference record, placing them in the thick of the hunt for a repeat SoCon conference title. Somewhere, Mike Young was nodding in approval…
Then, the Terriers’ well-oiled machine started to stall. Seven straight losses to close out the regular season dropped Wofford to 7th in the standings. Did they ease off the gas pedal? Did inevitable regression set in? Did a backloaded schedule finally catch up to them? What happened over the final month of the season is anyone’s guess, but the Terriers barked back in the SoCon Tournament, dispatching Citadel, Furman and Chattanooga in consecutive days before ultimately falling to ETSU in the title game. All things considered, it was an admirable finish and a validation that the team we witnessed from November through January wasn’t a farce.
Big picture, last season was all about the Young to McAuley transition. From a stylistic perspective, we quickly learned the apple didn’t fall too far from the tree. The obvious parallel was Wofford’s continued infatuation with the 3-ball. The Terriers’ hoisted triples at the 12th highest rate in the country, per KenPom (48% of all field goal attempts were 3-pointers), but that alone doesn’t prove Young’s influence over McAuley. Plenty of teams around the country are chucking 3s from the cheap seat.
Rather, it’s the way in which Wofford creates those outside looks that’s distinctive. The DNA match between Young and McAuley lies in one specific advanced statistical indicator, ‘Off Screen’ play style frequency, which sticks out like a sore thumb on Wofford’s Synergy page:
Wofford observers saw this data trait come to life last year on countless possessions. Sharpshooters Nathan Hoover and Trevor Stumpe looked like pinballs flying off screens, while point guard Storm Murphy’s hawkish vision tracked their every step. Hoover and Stumpe canned a combined 401 3s last year, so finding two new marksmen to fill their shoes will be McAuley’s top priority this summer. Murphy, a long-range assassin in his own right, will have to feed himself this season, but that alone won’t refuel the tank of this shooter-reliant offense.
Without a stable of shooters in the hopper, the Terriers’ will have to flex their versatility this season. The rest of the crew spans a wide spectrum of styles and skill sets:
Junior off-guard Ryan Larson surely has his best ball ahead of him. Touted as a shutdown defender, Larson suffered a concussion against Duke last season, causing his production to flatline. At minimum, Larson’s a solid glue guy and reliable complementary piece.
Tray Hollowell was instant offense off the pine last year, but his efficiency plummeted in conference play. A sudden rise in consistency and efficiency in a more prominent role feels ambitious, but his upside is in the clouds.
Morgan Safford is ready to make a name for himself after an injury kept him on the shelf last year. The redshirt freshman is a sound combo guard who can contribute in a variety of ways. Of all the new faces set to take the floor this season, Safford may outshine them all.
Messiah Jones and Isaiah Bigelow, a pair of 6’7 sophomores, could be the saving grace for the offense. They both received rave reviews from now departed Chevez Goodwin, Wofford’s leading scorer and rebounder last year, in his grad transfer exit interview:
The main thing is that Wofford still has (rising sophomore) Messiah Jones. He’s a great player right now and he will be even greater. I’m telling you right now. That kid gives his all to this team every single game. Messiah is going to play hard. You can’t question that. He’s a tough guy. He’s like my brother. I really care a lot about that dude. He’s going to step up to the task. Also, there is (rising sophomore) Isaiah (Bigelow). He’s going to be a great stretch four for Wofford. He can really shoot it and I think he’s going to have a great career, too. He’s a confidence player and when he gets going, he gets going. Put those four players together along with Dave (Appelgren), being 7-feet tall, and he’s getting better. Those five will be a special group. They’re going to be young but that doesn’t mean anything if you can play. I think Wofford is going to be just fine.”
In that blurb, Goodwin touched on a critical development project, 7-footer David Applegreen, a sparingly used backup last year. The Terriers need him to actualize his gifted frame and stand his ground against towering SoCon frontlines. Jones plays far bigger than his 6’7 frame indicates, but an XXL sized option like Applegreen will help neutralize any size discrepancies. Finally, keep an eye on South Florida transfer BJ Mack, who was recently awarded immediate eligibility. At 6’8 with a sound jumper and thick frame, Mack’s a tough cover – if he can stay healthy, a starting spot may be in his future.
Bottom Line: The Terriers may look a little different this season, but the intelligence and cohesion is a given for this program. Murphy’s mistake-free play at the point, combined with Jones’ activity inside, gives Wofford two solid building blocks to start from. Wofford’s institutional track record of player development points to an inevitable splash from one of the unknown commodities. The roster may not look like much right now, but that’s sure to change by March.
5. East Tennessee St.
Key Returners: Vonnie Patterson
Key Losses: Patrick Good, Isaiah Tisdale, Jeromy Rodriguez, Lucas N'Guessan, Tray Boyd III, Joe Hugley
Key Newcomers: Ledarrius Brewer (SEMO), Ty Brewer (SELA), Silas Adheke (Northern Kentucky), David Sloan*** (Kansas State), Serrel Smith Jr.*** (Maryland)
***needs waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: Steve Forbes got his long overdue promotion to the big leagues, nudging long-time assistant Jason Shay to first chair. ETSU’s decision to stay in house bears a striking resemblance to a recent pattern of SoCon head coaching changes. Wofford’s opted to stay in the family when they appointed Jay McAuley to replace Mike Young last year, which follows the slam dunk success of Bob Richey’s internal promotion to the helm at Furman back in 2017. Hashing out the pros and cons of ‘keeping it in the family’ is a messy exercise, but it’s hard to argue with the logic of anointing Forbes’ right hand man to boss.
My framework-obsessed consulting brain sees the advantages of coaching continuity as two-fold: 1) Personnel retention (off-court) and 2) stylistic retention (on-court). Keep in mind that these are not mutually exclusive benefits – retaining key players and assistants typically manifests in a seamless transition to effective on floor execution in the next season. So, well did the Buccaneers do in my two-dimensional scoring rubric?
Continuity to keep player and coaching personnel intact (off court): Frankly, this did not go as planned. A slew of players followed Forbes through the exit door, leaving Shay with a roster comprised primarily of transfers and freshmen. Vonnie Patterson is the highest returning scorer (3.0 PPG) after Patrick Good decided to opt out of the season. Compounding player personnel upheaval is the assistant coach turnstile, as Shay watched his former colleagues follow Forbes to Wake Forest. Shay’s coaching war room will feature three outsiders this season, Turner Battle (UAB), Matt Wise (Little Rock) and Greg Heiar (LSU). In year one of the new regime, the question will be whether this new band of brothers can gel cohesively as a coaching unit. How far will they deviate from Forbes’ principles? That brings us to…
Continuity to keep tactical and stylistic play unchanged (on court): The prevailing assumption for in-house hires is that they’re hesitant to rock the boat, often staying true to their former mentor’s roots. Shay appears to be following this blueprint, per his comments in the interview with Blue Ribbon this offseason:
“We’re not going to look different,” Shay said. I had a lot to do with the implementation of the style of play that we ran. I don’t know any different. I like the way we played.”
However, Shay sang a slightly different tune in another quote from the Bristol Herald Courier. There, he touted his plans to install a thick playbook, which could have this transfer-laden group drinking from a firehose:
“I have shown them my play sheet from years past and there are a lot of plays on there,” Shay said. “There are 100 or so plays on there they are going to have to know and they probably haven’t ever had to do that so the complexity and sophistication of college basketball and of a team that has expectations every year is a lot to process.”
While the macro system should remain largely the same, the transfer-laden Bucs may face a steep learning curve memorizing Shay’s encyclopedia of set plays.
The cure-all to any coaching transition turbulence is prolific guard play. Good’s decision to sit out the season ripped up the initial agenda, and now shifts a heavy burden on to Ledarrius Brewer’s shoulders. Brewer’s combination of size, skill and athleticism begs the question as to how he ever landed at SEMO, a perennial OVC bottom feeder. Brewer’s categorically more talented than his former OVC competition, which makes his shaky sophomore year in 2019 a bit perplexing. Brewer posted an O-Rating below 90 in conference games that year, hindered by a shoddy 29% conversion rate from 3-point range. After knocking down 35% from long distance as a freshman, he struggled to sustain that precision as the go-to-option.
This is concerning given Brewer now finds himself back in the same position of power this year for a team devoid of a reliable bucket getter. That said, Brewer’s a freakish talent and has already turned heads behind the scenes at ETSU’s practices. Shay gushed about Brewer’s potential as a scorer and multi-positional defender this summer, based on his dominance on the practice squad last year:
“At times we thought [Lederrius] was the best player on our team last year. Being able to finally see him live and play, he is so versatile, I think he is our best athlete,” Shay said. “He has good size, he has some toughness where I think he could defend 1 through 5 if he needs to. He has got a scorer’s mentality, but just trying to get him to understand, we can’t beat ourselves and coming from SEMO he had the green light. I want him to have confidence, but I want him to do what is best for ETSU in how we win games.”
Ledarrius’ brother, Ty Brewer, received the go-ahead to lace ‘em up this season. The swiss army knife carries many of the same traits as his big brother, but he’s even more versatile defensively. The Brewer brothers will form a dynamic duo this season, but the other two pending transfer decisions, Maryland defector Serrel Smith and K-State import David Sloan, loom large. If the NCAA shuts the door on Smith and Sloan, redshirt freshman Damari Monsanto, as well as true freshmen Marcus Niblack and Truth Harris, will be fast tracked to the primary rotation. Monsanto carries a reputation as a deadeye driller, a nice foundational skill to pair with a 6’6 frame. Niblack and Harris will set their sights on the blank space at point guard. Niblack’s 3-star pedigree (59th best point guard in the 2021 class, per 247 sports) and head-turning explosiveness may give him the early edge but expect both to clock big minutes in their rookie campaigns.
Up front, space eater Silas Adheke will patrol the paint, a full-time starter on Northern Kentucky last year. Adheke’s the epitome of a garbage man big, a long disruptor inside who can clean the glass. The aforementioned Patterson likely fills the second forward spot at the 4, a relentless rebounder and gritty defender. Neither Patterson or Adheke pack much of a scoring punch, but the guard will take care of that this season.
Bottom Line: Shay and his staff anxiously await the final verdicts on Sloan and Smith’s waiver decisions. An adverse ruling means the Buccaneers’ bench would be almost all freshmen this season, a stark change from the elder teams ETSU’s been accustomed to in year’s past. If Sloan and Smith get the thumbs up, the Bucs could climb as high as 3rd this season, but there’s still a seismic gap between Furman and UNC Greensboro.
6. Western Carolina
Key Returners: Mason Faulkner, Matt Halvorsen, Kameron Gibson, Tyler Harris, Xavier Cork, Travion McCray, Marcus Thomas
Key Losses: Carlos Dotson, Onno Steger
Key Newcomers: SinCere McMahon
Lineup:
Outlook: It took Mark Prosser all of two years to lead Western Carolina to one of its best seasons in program history. WCU’s basketball tradition doesn’t stack up with the other Tobacco Road blue bloods but racking up the second highest season win total in school history deserves a standing ovation. The Catamounts’ 5th place finish may not call for a party in the streets, but in the context of the SoCon’s recent meteoric rise, Prosser is clearly pulling the right strings.
It all adds up after a quick scan of his resume. Four years with Mike Young (at Wofford). Five years with Pat Flannery (at Bucknell). Six years with Pat Kelsey (at Winthrop). That excludes his lifelong apprenticeship as the son of the late, great Skip Prosser. In other words, or in the words of Mr. Alan Boston, “he knows what he’s doing”.
Prosser’s taken key elements from each of his former mentors and fused them together into a super-deluxe version of modern basketball. On offense, Young and Kelsey’s fingerprints are all over the Catamounts’ scoring attack. Pacing, spacing and shooting are the three pistons fueling this high-powered attack, which is rooted in the quintessential ‘Moneyball’ principles. Daryl Morey, the Houston Rockets’ analytically-wired GM, would smile at the Catamounts’ shot chart decomposition last season, which shows a complete aversion to 2-point jump shots:
Last year’s two-man show, Mason Faulkner and Carlos Dotson, now becomes a solo act with Faulkner front and center. If that aforementioned Rockets’ parallel resonated with you, think of Faulkner as a poor man’s, right-handed James Harden. Like the bearded assassin, Faulkner’s ball and body control are elite, as is his knack for drawing contact at the rim. On many possessions, Prosser will let Faulkner probe the defense with full autonomy, spacing the floor to let him attack in space in isolation:
Faulkner was just as lethal as a pick-n-roll initiator last year, especially with Dotson as his partner-in-crime. In the only game Dotson missed last season, Prosser turned to a young, giddy Xavier Cork to man the middle. Against a fierce East Tennessee State frontline, Cork responded with 16 points and 9 boards. In my eyes, that served as a tryout for Dotson’s replacement, a test Cork passed with flying colors. Replacing Dotson’s double-double production is a tall ask, but Cork is ready for lift off as steps on to the sophomore year launching pad. Another second-year player, Tyler Harris, is a critical connector piece to the frontline, a matrix type weapon at 6’7.
Without a man-child like Dotson ruling the paint, the Catamounts’ offense will have to double-down on the long ball. Prosser, smartly, rounded up a plethora of sharpshooters, giving Faulkner’s plenty of outlets to distribute the rock. Matt Halvorsen, Kameron Gibson and Travion McCray can all torch the nets, as can incoming freshman prodigy SinCere McMahon. McMahon would’ve been my pick for freshman of the year, a prolific prep player at Indiana, but the Halvorsen, Gibson and McCray triumvirate, along with Marcus Thomas’ redemption tour, may impede McMahon from becoming a household name in year 1.
Bottom Line: Dotson’s departure puts a major dent in the scoring and rebounding departments. Few bigs in America could match his bruising physicality and feathery soft touch, and he was a match made in heaven with Faulkner in pick-n-roll. However, Faulkner will be just fine with this stockpile of shooters dotting the arc around him. Putting points on the board won’t be an issue. Any upward move in the standings must start with tightening up the screws defensively.
Side bar: If you haven’t seen the highlight reel from this game last year, welcome to Banana-land, USA:
7. Chattanooga
Key Returners: David Jean-Baptiste, Stefan Kenic, Trey Doomes, A.J. Caldwell
Key Losses: Ramon Vila, Matt Ryan, Rod Johnson, Maurice Commander
Key Newcomers: Mark Tikhonenko (Sam Houston State), Josh Ayeni (South Alabama)
Lineup:
*UPDATE: Ramon Vila turned pro and will not be returning this season.
Outlook: All aboard! The Mocs’ choo-choo train is about to depart…
With Lamont Paris as lead conductor, Chattanooga is on the verge of another top-5 finish in 2021. But, the Mocs won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year. Per the chart below, courtesy of Jordan Sperber, Nooga made a mockery of KenPom’s preseason expectations last season:
True to his mentor’s roots, Paris is a devout follower of Bo Ryan’s blueprint. In the Ryan church of basketball, eliminating turnovers is a foundational requirement to offensive efficiency. Chattanooga failed the ball security aptitude test in Paris’ first two seasons, but patience was rewarded last year. The Mocs posted the lowest turnover rate in the SoCon, a collective achievement rooted in rigorous ball protection.
A dual point guard system was a key driver behind the the Mocs’ sure-handed ball security, as Paris called upon Maurice Commander and David Jean-Baptiste to co-pilot the offense. Jean-Baptiste enters his fourth year with the program after staying loyal during the 2018 change in coaching regime. His steady rise to prominence is a testament to patience and hard work, earning his stripes as one of the most feared guards in the conference. His well-rounded tool kit allows him to toggle back and forth between creator and scorer. This year, he’ll have to wear both hats to complement the skillsets of his perimeter running mates, Trey Doomes, AJ Caldwell and Malachi Smith.
Doomes is a Jekyll-and-Hyde player, but he makes his pay attacking the rim. Conversely, Caldwell is more of a floor-spacer, sporting a 37% career hit rate from downtown. Paris alternated between three forward and three guard lineups last season: Caldwell played the 3 in the guard-oriented attack while Rod Johnson took this spot in the wing-heavy approach. The 6’4 Caldwell boards well for his size, but he’s still a defensive rebounding downgrade from Johnson, the team leader in per possession rebounding last season. This isn’t a major concern in the grand scheme, but noteworthy for the SoCon’s best defensive rebounding team last year. This is where Smith’s physicality may come in handy, who sat out last year after transferring in from Wright State. Paris sang Smith’s praises in Blue Ribbon’s preview, citing his unique ability to post up smaller guards on the block and defend multiple positions with his size and strength.
It’s hard to gloss over how important Matt Ryan was last year, a home run transfer acquisition for Paris and the staff. However, this is still a system-driven offense, and former Cleveland State transfer Stefan Kenic is tailor-made to fill Ryan’s spot. Kenic isn’t quite in Ryan’s weight class, but he brings a similar inside-out scoring versatility.
Ramon Vila was supposed to be the Mocs’ meal ticket inside this year, but he opted to turn pro, a gut punch to the Mocs’ frontline. Vila landed in Chattanooga after a quick cup of coffee at Arizona State, and immediately put the SoCon on notice. He certainly got Carlos Dotson’s attention:
“Personally, I would say the hardest person to guard last year was Vila from Chattanooga. Big tough skilled post player.”
Paris went back to the grad transfer well to cushion the frontcourt, nabbing Josh Ayeni from South Alabama and Mark Tikhonenko from Sam Houston State. Ayeni’s last stand comes nearly four years after his best basketball days at St. Bonaventure, where he notched 24 starts on the 2016-17 Bona squad. Ayeni should add a jolt of athleticism to an otherwise plodding group of forwards – only Grand Canyon blocked fewer shots than Chattanooga on a per possession basis last year. That said, Ayeni’s been a ghost the last two seasons, so betting on a sudden resurrection may be a bridge too far. The Russian native Tikhonenko won’t solve the athleticism shortage, but he can drill it from long distance (he shot 50% from behind the stripe last season at SHSU). Like Kenic, Tikhonenko will love this inverse forward friendly offense.
Bottom Line: Recruiting was once a perceived challenge in installing Bo Ryan’s buzzcut brand of basketball, but Paris has basically extinguished those concerns at this point. He’s landed multiple marquee grad transfer pieces and proven he can seamlessly integrate those new faces with the homegrown talent. Even without Ryan and Commander, ready-made replacements are waiting in the wings to keep the Mocs’ momentum chuggin’ along in 2021.
Tier 3
8. Samford
Key Returners: Jalen Dupree, Logan Dye
Key Losses: Josh Sharkey, Robert Allen, Brandon Austin, Deandre Thomas
Key Newcomers: Preston Parks (UT Martin), Richardson Maitre (Florida Atlantic), K.J. Davis (East Carolina), AJ Staton-McCray, Christian Guess (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: I’ll be honest. I got a hearty chuckle out of this column, which raised an eye at Samford’s precarious decision to hire Bucky McMillan as their new head coach.
This excerpt below encapsulates the cynicism surrounding McMillan’s near unprecedented leap, from high school straight to Division I:
The 36-year-old had been the head coach for 12 years at Mountain Brook High School, just a few miles away from Samford’s campus in Birmingham, Ala. Before that he coached the Mountain Brook junior varsity team at age 22, and as a teenager he led a couple of local AAU teams. That’s hardly the tried-and-true path to a Division I head-coaching job
Hey, John Wooden and Bob McKillop turned out alright, two Hall of Famers who also made the leap from high school to Division I with ease.
To be honest, why not take a flyer on a young gun like McMillan. Samford has nowhere to go but up after last year’s calamity. If you read the Chattanooga preview above, this chart should look familiar:
Samford’s only four wins in conference came against the Military schools. Against everyone else, they curled up in the fetal position, showing no interest in guarding anything. Despite master thief Josh Sharkey buzzin’ all over the floor, last year’s defense was downright porous. Scott Padgett may have overcoached on this end of the floor, haphazardly switching between man, zone and sporadic full-court pressure with no clear intent or strategy. Regardless of what scheme was deployed, Samford paid no attention to shooters and demonstrated zero urgency getting back on defense.
Perhaps Bucky’s helter-skelter defense can turn the tides, which he described in an interview earlier this summer with Mid Major Madness.
“In terms of style, we’re going to play like we did in high school,” said McMillan. “We’re a pressure team and we’re going to get out in transition and we’re going to play in the 90s. I don’t know of another way to play. It’s all I have ever known and that’s the way we are going to play. We are going to be successful, but if we aren’t I am going out on my own sword.”
Whether McMillan’s destiny is miracle-man or martyr, I salute the steadfast belief in his vision. Godspeed, my man – literally…
Shifting into Mach 5 gear can be a slippery slope for first year head coaches, but based on the quote above, Bucky isn’t entertaining any phased implementation of his renegade system.
Working in McMillan’s favor is roster dripping with speed and agility, even with Sharkey no longer around. Preston Parks, a SoCon boomerang from the Citadel who tore up the league during his freshman campaign, will take the keys from Sharkey. Triston Chambers is another boomerang boy, who actually started at Samford before a two-year journey into Division II – he was an All Freshman team member back in 2017. Myron Gordon will make his cameo this season after watching last year’s train wreck from the training table, a ferocious rim attacker and readymade contributor in the backcourt. Jalen Dupree was the lone beacon of light in last year’s horror movie, and Logan Dye is another competent returner up front. Richardson Maitre (Florida Atlantic) and K.J. Davis (East Carolina) are solid one-year rentals who should provide a spark at their respective positions.
The freshmen class is a long-term investment but AJ Staton-McCray may yield immediate returns this year. He played on an elite high school team – Selton Miguel (K-State) and Jalen Tracey (St. Joe’s) were other notable prospects – where he outshined many of his peers, some of whom landed at high major destinations. JUCO product Christian Guess is another Power-6 caliber talent, who spent a semester at Mizzou before taking his talents to North Idaho instead.
Bottom Line: While there’s a lot of intriguing pieces, bringing them all together will be a near impossible task. Let’s not forget that McMillan is still a 36-year old head coach acclimating to a middle management-to-C-Suite type promotion. Furthermore, McMillan has to weld together a roster that resembles an outfit assembled at Goodwill, and quickly instill a radical style of play in the face of a predominantly virtual offseason.
Not even the boldest hedge fund manager or option trader would sign up for that risk level, but Samford’s position is unique: there’s really nothing to lose. While my tone wreaks of sarcasm and pessimism, I’m on board with this dice roll long term. The roster might look like a cropped family photo, but there’s certainly some weapons for Bucky to work with.
Tier 4
9. VMI
Key Returners: Kamdyn Curfman, Greg Parham, Myles Lewis, Jake Stephens
Key Losses: Garrett Gilkeson, Travis Evee, Tyler Creammer
Key Newcomers: Trey Bonham, Devin Butler, DJ Nussbaum
Lineup:
Outlook: Context is king, folks. Without it, VMI’s 9-24 record last year looks like an eye sore. A disappointment. A failure.
I realize it’s still a bottom-line business. Winning still matters. But, so does context. With it, a well-trained eye can cut through the fog and see the beauty in Dan Earl’s brilliant coaching performance last season.
Military school restrictions notwithstanding, the Keydets shattered almost everyone’s preseason expectations. Stranded with a desolate roster, Earl took what looked like a Junior Varsity team…
… and assembled it into a *competitive* SoCon challenger. I might be handicapping their 3-15 league record to paint a rosy picture, but for as much as I bet against this VMI team last season, I know what I saw with my own eyes – that is, a team that maximized its talent potential, and then some…
Freshman-laden teams, excluding the obvious blue-blood exceptions, tend to follow one of two curves: 1) they stumble of the gates, then quickly adjust, improve at an accelerated rate, and turn it on down the stretch OR 2) they come out guns blazing, catching opponents off guard, but the grind of the season begins to take its toll and regression sets in. The Keydets followed the first trajectory, rounding into form right at the onset on of SoCon play. Unfortunately, despite playing their best ball when it mattered most, VMI often drew the short end of the stick against conference foes, losing six times in games decided by three points or less.
The Keydets will stick to the script in 2021, hoping Lady Luck’s pendulum swings back in their favor. The key for these Keydets? Basketball’s ultimate size and athletic equalizer: the 3-pointer.
40-inch leapers and 7-foot towers don’t grow on trees – and the ones that do aren’t coming to VMI. But Earl knows there’s an endless supply of kids in all shapes and sizes who can shoot it. The Keydets aren’t going to jump over anyone, but if you give them time and space, they can bury it from 3-point range. Per the shot below, few teams in America were more efficient on catch-and-shoot jumpers (‘Spot Up’) last season than VMI:
The Keydets were 2nd in the country in 3-pointers made, but 71 of the 359 treys came off the hand of Travis Evee, the reigning SoCon Freshman of the Year. Kamdyn Curfman will have to pick up his slack this year, a deadly shooter with deep range. That said, Curfman’s statistical profile leads you to believe he’s a one-trick-pony. Shooting is his specialty, but he can knife his way through the lane to set up others for open looks as well. Sean Conway’s game is eerily similar to Curfman, though he stands a few inches taller at 6’4. He’ll see his usage spike immediately in a post Gilkeson world.
Veteran Greg Parham still carries that streaky gene in his blood, capable of burning down the building with a barrage of threes on any given night. Parham’s a prolific scorer with endless range, but he’s susceptible to going AWOL as well. Myles Lewis is the black sheep of the backcourt bunch, the only non-shooter on the roster, who saw his minutes wither away last year. In an offense that’s founded on shooting and floor spacing, Lewis might be the odd man out this season – though, his motor and defensive versatility are still worthy of high leverage minutes.
VMI isn’t going to out-athlete anyone, but Earl’s incoming recruiting class will infuse a refreshing dose of bounce and quickness, which should keep defenses from hugging shooters. Speedster Trey Bonham leads the pack, a dynamic lead guard with a chiseled frame. He’s on the shorter end of the spectrum, but Earl will have a hard time keeping him off the floor, especially with Evee leaving town. A big wildcard is Ta'Vonne Bond, a fringe starter in 2019 who magically reappeared on the 2020-21 roster (always check those rosters, kids!). A former Mount Zion Prep product, Bond’s pedigree merits a courtesy mention as a potential contributor this year. VMI lived and died with the jumpshot last season, so diversifying the scoring portfolio with layups and free throws should help stabilize the offense.
In a system that’s overindexed on guards, 6’9 Jake Stephens might actually be the Keydets’ most indispensable player. On offense, he’s a pick-n-pop savant and pinpoint passer from the perimeter. On defense, he’s the only barricade protecting the rim. While I wouldn’t call Stephens a frightening presence up front, he uses those long limbs effectively.
VMI will try and junk it up again on defense, fronting with a three-quarter court zone press and dropping back into an amoeba zone. Per Synergy, VMI pressed and played zone at the 22nd and 14th highest rates in America last year. Inserting a dose of quickness with the newcomers may give VMI’s man to man defense a prayer to improve, but the Keydets were predictably torched in man last season.
Bottom Line: The Military schools will rarely break out of the SoCon cellar. That’s just the harsh reality of their limitations and restrictions. Homing in on the win/loss columns to evaluate program success is just the tip the iceberg and ignores how much Earl has elevated VMI in just three years. Sustaining upward momentum will be even harder, but the fertile talent Earl hauled last summer may be a marker of a new normal for VMI hoops.
10. The Citadel
Key Returners: Fletcher Abee, Kaiden Rice, Hayden Brown, Rudy Fitzgibbons III, Brady Spence
Key Losses: Kaelon Harris, Eddie Davis, Tyson Batiste
Key Newcomers: Brent Davis, Dylan Engler, Owen Spencer, Tyler Moffe
Lineup:
Outlook: From 6-5 to 6-24, a fun start to the season quickly unraveled. Injuries and in-season transfers took a mallet to the roster foundation, and the whole house collapsed on Duggar Baucom and his run-and-gun Bulldogs. Despair and hopelessness mounted with each conference loss, culminating in a somber declaration by Baucom after a 20-point defeat to UNC Greensboro in early February:
“I’ve never had anything like this in 25 years of coaching,” said Baucom shortly following that loss to UNCG, running the losing streak up to 11. “You go to a shoot-around with eight guys, and you don’t know how many you’ll have for the next one ... But I’ve got to praise those guys who go out there and fight and dive on the floor for loose balls and play their guts out.”
By that time, key rotational cogs Jackson Gammons (stress fracture), Jerry Higgins (knee) and Connor Kern had been decommissioned for the season (Kern’s was an offseason injury). Hayden Brown and Brady Spence were limping through leg injuries of their own and Eddie Davis III had already left the team. Veteran swingman Kaiden Rice, along with rookie gunners Rudy Fitzgibbons III and Fletcher Abee, were the only returners who dodged the injury bullets that sprayed through the Bulldogs locker room.
A rejuvenated and revived roster is a valid reason to bet on a 2021 redemption, especially with the crux of the Citadel’s nucleus aging into that coveted sophomore window. However, there’s still a glaring omission.
Here’s the thing: if you want an offense to play at NASCAR speed, you need a driver capable of keeping the car on the tracks. In two of Baucom’s last four seasons at the helm, he’s had a Jeff Gordon-like conductor steering the offense: Preston Parks in 2017 and Lew Stallworth in 2019. Notice the the chasm between the Bulldogs’ offensive efficiency and turnover rates in 2018 and 2020, compared to 2017 and 2019:
No disrespect to Tyson Batiste last season but expecting a low-usage Central Connecticut transfer to seamlessly take over at point guard was like tossing the keys to a toddler and saying, “drive kid”. Given the aforementioned Fitzgibbons and Abee are more shooters than creators, a re-run of last year’s movie may be in the cards.
The Citadel’s maniacal pace creates a slightly skewed narrative that Duggar Baucom simply refuses to coach defense. No, the Bulldogs will never be a shutdown defensive steel curtain but striving for adequate is all that’s necessary. A healthy Brady Spence could be just what the doctor ordered, an elastic 6’9 leaper who can at least bother opponents at the rim. Per hooplens.com, the Bulldogs defensive 2-point field goal percentage was 8% lower when Spence was on the floor last season. When he was sidelined, SoCon foes had a tea party in the restricted area.
Bottom Line: A healthier and older version of last year’s team could slingshot out of the SoCon basement, but until a dynamic playmaker emerges from the ashes, I’ll likely be shorting the Bulldogs this season. Brown is an established double-digit scorer, but he’s not an explosive lead guard who can bend the defense with dribble penetration. Until this hole is filled, the Bulldogs will remain the SoCon’s caboose.