-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Trey Pulliam, Nathan Mensah, Adam Seiko, Aguek Arop, Lamont Butler, Keshad Johnson
Key Losses: Jordan Schakel, Matt Mitchell, Terrell Gomez
Key Newcomers: Matt Bradley (Cal), Chad Baker-Mazara (Duquesne), Tahirou Diabete (Portland), Jaedon LeDee (TCU)**
Lineup:
** - LeDee will be redshirting, per reports
Outlook: Come on, committee…
The Aztecs didn’t get hosed enough in 2020? You just HAD to pin them against Syracuse?
Yup, Jim Boeheim and his vintage voodoo magic spoiled San Diego State’s postseason party plans just a year removed from the catastrophic 2020 COVID cancellation.
Aside: Are those party pooping men in Orange the most villainized ‘Cinderella’ in the history of the NCAA Tournament?
Early round NCAA Tournament squabbles aside, Brian Dutcher still added two more plaques to his trophy case: a conference regular season championship and tournament title. ‘Dutch’ is now 31-4 against league foes since finding his stride in 2020 – dare I say, he’s planted himself on the Mountain West’s mountaintop.
The deep pockets of Power-6 suitors were sure to flock this summer, and that they did. Minnesota put the full court press on, but Dutcher’s loyalty held firm. Now, despite the loss of a few accomplished vets, SDSU’s prognosis looks far rosier than most anticipated. With Dutch back, accompanied by returners Trey Pulliam and Nathan Mensah, the quarterbacks of the backcourt and frontcourt, respectively – not to mention the haul of assets swooped up in the transfer portal – the Aztecs suddenly look like a surefire threat to secure a third straight MWC title belt.
Quite frankly, even had more personnel dominoes fallen by the wayside, the ‘Tecs would still be on the short list of contenders regardless. They’ve officially joined an exclusive club of elite defensive institutions, akin to the likes of Virginia, Texas Tech and Houston. For these programs, defending at an high level is a given year in and year out. Put simply, it’s player agnostic. Success is rooted in system defensive cohesion, not individual defensive prowess.
Yes, the fusion of both ingredients is the holy grail, obviously. Look no further than the 2019-20 SDSU juggernaut spearheaded by Malachi Flynn, one of the premier on-ball defenders in college basketball, and Yanni Wetzel, a sturdy interior anchor.
But without that duo last season, the Aztecs still put the clamps down. San Diego State checked in with a top-25 defense for the third time in Dutcher’s four seasons at the helm. Granted, getting a fully healthy Mensah for a whole year was a crucial development, as were the returns of program pillars Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel. But, if you were to set the OVER / UNDER line on the Aztecs’ 2021-22 overall defensive efficiency rank at, say, 25th, I’d lay my mortgage on the UNDER.
The secret sauce in Dutcher’s ‘D’ is the ability to dictate opponent shot selection. Enabled by flawless positioning and rotational movement, the ‘Tecs force the hand of their opponent. Thanks to ShotQuality.com’s algorithm, we can now measure this effectiveness, based on shot charting and individual player field goal percentages:
If that 2-year track record isn’t convincing enough, here’s more: per hoop-math.com, only 23% of SDSU’s opponents field goals came at the rim last season, the lowest rate in America. Additionally, only 17% of shot attempts came in transition, the 3rd lowest clip in the country.
To summarize, no one gets to the rim and no one gets easy run out buckets on the break. So, what’s left? Only highly contested shots via long, grueling offensive possessions.
Dutcher’s acute awareness of the importance of shot selection quality carries over to the offensive end as well. Specifically, he’s welcomed the 3-pointer with open arms, particularly in recent years. The Aztecs hoisted triples at a top-100 rate in each of the last two seasons and converted a blistering 37.5% of those attempts. In the wake of Jordan Schakel, Matt Mitchell and Terrell Gomez’s goodbyes, can the Aztecs sustain that in 2022?
Fringe starter Adam Seiko will shoulder some of this burden, a know-your-role All-Star who canned 37% of his threes in conference play a year ago. As the odds-on favorite to gobble up most of Mitchell and Gomez’s minutes, he’ll need to keep that conversion rate afloat on a higher volume.
He’s far from the only option, though. Matt Bradley’s barrel-chested frame doesn’t give off ‘sweet shooting’ vibes but that’s precisely what the Cal transfer brings to the table – and then some…
Bradley enters his fourth collegiate season sporting a 3-point hit rate above 40% on a whopping 386 attempts. Unlike Seiko, Bradley doesn’t curb his appetite there. He’s a bruising rim attacker, drawing contact almost at will when he’s airborne, and when he gets to the line, he’s nearly automatic (84% career).
Guard depth behind Bradley, Seiko and the perimeter captain Pulliam looks sparse at initial glance, but Chad Baker-Mazara could be just what the doctor ordered. At Duquesne, Baker-Mazara nestled in to a quintessential ‘3-and-D’ wing role, finishing 3rd in the A-10 in 3PT FG% and 11th in blocks. Keith Dinwiddie is also lurking in the shadows, a rising sophomore who was largely buried last season. He was dominant in brief mop up time appearances, evidence that a major step could be in the cards.
Other wildcard pieces off the pine include specialists Aguek Arop, Keshad Johnson and Lamont Butler. Butler caught my eye on a few occasions last season, a lightning quick, low center of gravity jitterbug who just makes stuff happen with his activity. Arop, if he can stay healthy, should also crack the rotation as a token gritty veteran and useful multi-positional defender. Finally, Johnson flourished in his 15-20 minute a game, jack-of-all-trades role last season – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
As teased in the intro, Nathan Mensah returns as the czar of the interior defense. Aztec fans are well familiar with Mensah’s work. He’s a leather-eating, rim-rocking monster, and worthy successor to the long line of formidable Aztec rim protectors. Trustworthy backup Joshua Tomaic also returns, who did nothing wrong spelling Mensah off the bench last year, which could squeeze playing time for two intriguing newcomers: Jaedon LeDee (TCU) and Tahirou ‘Taki’ Diabete (Portland). Assuming LeDee receives a waiver, the two-time transfer could be one of the league’s biggest surprises. The former 4-star recruit was a bully on the boards for TCU last year and could tag team nicely with the leaner Mensah up front. Diabete has the chops to be a defensive stalwart in multiple ways but injuries and a dysfunctional situation at Portland limited his growth potential.
Editor’s note: LeDee will be redshirting.
Bottom Line: After back-to-back sterling coaching seasons from Dutcher, that 2019 hiccup now looks like an outlier. It’s tempting to back a horse like Colorado State, the young up-and-comers with that offensive ‘fun factor’ but bet against San Diego State at your own risk. For the third consecutive season, the Mountain West title chase runs through Viejas.