- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Eric Ayala, Donta Scott, Hakim Hart
Key Losses: Aaron Wiggins, Darryl Morsell, Jairus Hamilton, Galin Smith, Aquan Smart, Reese Mona, Chol Marial
Key Newcomers: Fatts Russell (Rhode Island), Qudus Wahab (Georgetown), Ian Martinez (Utah), Xavier Green (Old Dominion), Julian Reese, Ike Cornish
Lineup:
Outlook: Mark Turgeon gets a lot of guff, and the ole Weave has played its fair part giving Mark Turgeon some of that guff. But, no guff can or shall be given for Turgeon’s performance last season. For one of the few times in his tenure at Maryland Mark Turgeon exceeded expectations. His squad was expected to struggle following the loss of its two stars from 2019-20, but the Terps persevered and earned their sixth NCAA Tournament berth in the last seven seasons. Ignoring expectations, Maryland has actually performed well in conference play under Turgeon, finishing in the top five of the Big Ten five times in the past seven years. The Terps were pegged by many early this offseason to be a top ten team heading into 2020-21 season, but Aaron Wiggins opted to turn pro and Darryl Morsell strangely decided to transfer to Marquette. Despite those departures, Maryland has a ton of talent left on its roster (the transfer portal helped) and should be a fringe top 25 team all season and a threat to win the Big Ten.
Maryland was an extremely jump shot-reliant team in 2020-21 due to its severe lack of size on the frontline and its guards’ tendency to pull-up versus taking the ball all the way to the rack. The Terps ranked 37th nationally in Adj. OE (per KenPom) but just 11th in the Big Ten, making it Turgeon’s worst offense since 2015. Given the Terps’ preference to play at a slower pace, combined with a complete lack of offensive rebounding or post presence, their offense was incredibly streaky and prone to stagnation. If they had an off night shooting the ball, it was bad news bears.
Defense was a product of the same problem. While the Terps were scrappy and had the B1G DPOY on their perimeter in Morsell, they weren’t elite on this end primarily due to a lack of frontcourt size. Rebounding wasn’t a huge issue, but the Terps were killed on post-ups from a PPP perspective and were forced to sag off shooters on the arc in order to protect the paint.
Enter Georgetown transfer Qudus Wahab, who shockingly decided to leave Patrick Ewing and Big Man U this offseason and join the Terps. Wahab gives Maryland exactly what it was missing last year on both ends of the floor: a dominant offensive rebounding, post-up, and shot-blocking presence.
Turgeon can run offense through Wahab when needed, which in turn will create more space for his shooters, and he can extend more on the perimeter on defense with Wahab anchoring the paint.
Wahab’s presence also allows Donta Scott to slide down to his natural position at the 4. Scott was arguably the most impressive Terp last season, holding his own in the paint and on the glass as an undersized 5 and shooting 44% from deep on the offensive end. Expect plenty of 4-out / 1-in looks with Scott hanging out on the perimeter and Wahab dropping bodies on the block.
Maryland has more depth this season up front, albeit mostly at the 4-spot. Former 4-star recruit James Graham III, who joined the team in December, is a super skilled 3/4 tweener able to play the 4 and lock up wings on the defensive end. Top 50 recruit Julian Reese will also be a factor in the frontcourt rotation; he’s a long athlete who can block shots and man the 5-spot in a pinch. Sophomore Arnaud Revaz, Arizona State transfer Pavlo Dziuba, and Elon transfer Simon Wright round out the rotation. Dziuba is the guy to watch out of this group; he’s a former 4-star recruit out of Ukraine and was the youngest player in college basketball last season. He might need another year to develop, but he’s very skilled and will contribute down the road.
Turgeon has a surefire starting guard trio in Eric Ayala, Hakim Hart, and Rhode Island transfer Fatts Russell. Ayala exploded last season, leading the Terps in scoring while handling the ball more. He was one of the few Terps who showed a willingness to attack the hoop and shot well from the floor. This year Ayala will be one of the better scorers in the Big Ten, and look for Turgeon to use him more in ball screens after scoring 1.091 PPP off them in 2020-21 (96th percentile nationally, per Synergy).
Hart started 18 games last season and showed his top-notch scoring ability by pouring in 32 points against Saint Peter’s in early December. He’ll be featured more this season without Wiggins and Morsell around. Late addition Xavier Green, a transfer from Old Dominion, could start in place of Hart, giving ODU more of a defensive presence while letting Hart be an instant-offense type guy off the pine, a role in which he could thrive. Green struggled with his outside shot last year but is a career 35% from distance on over 375 attempts. In 2018-19 he earned C-USA All-Defense honors, a good addition for a Terps team missing their best perimeter defender from a year ago.
Russell was a 1st Team All-A-10 and All-Defense honoree last season (career leader in steals at URI). He’ll come in and run point on day one, but he’s known more as a scoring guard than a pure facilitator. There’s no questioning Fatts’s talent – he led the A-10 in FT rate last year and racked up points in bunches – but he has struggled with efficiency during his career. Last season Russell connected on just 23.5% of 3PA (career 28% on nearly 600 attempts) and shot sub-40% inside the arc. He had to literally do everything for the Rams last season, so perhaps filling a role on a much better team will improve his efficiency.
Former 3-star PG Marcus Dockery will get some looks at point off the bench this season, and Utah transfer Ian Martinez and 4-star freshman Ike Cornish will provide depth on the wings. Martinez emerged down the stretch for the Utes last season, averaging 9.7 PPG in 22 MPG his last six games and is a quick guard with a good-looking outside shot. Cornish has length for days and can play multiple positions.
Bottom Line: Turgeon returns to having high expectations this season, which means we should expect him to slightly underperform. The Terps should finish in the upper half of the Big Ten, rank around 20-35 in KenPom, and earn a 5 or 6 seed in the Dance. Such is the Maryland way. As a Mizzou graduate, believe me when I say: it could be worse.