- Ky McKeon

Key Returners: Trevion Williams, Eric Hunter, Brandon Newman, Sasha Stefanovic, Mason Gillis, Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey, Isaiah Thompson
Key Losses: Aaron Wheeler
Key Newcomers: Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst

Lineup:

Outlook: Purdue was one of the youngest teams in the country last season, ranking 327th in experience per KenPom. Despite that the Boilermakers put together an impressive season, rattling off a 13-6 Big Ten record and earning a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It was just another notch in the belt of Matt Painter, who has now led his program to six straight top-25 KenPom finishes, three of which were top-10s. Four key players make the juicy freshman-to-sophomore leap and Painter returns All-American favorite Trevion Williams (in addition to nearly all of his prior year roster). The Boilers are a legitimate Final Four contender.

Everything on offense goes through Williams, the national leader in percentage of teams’ shots taken and the second-highest used player in the land in 2020-21. Purdue led the country in percentage of plays finished via post-ups (Synergy) and allowed Williams to work against one-on-one coverage on the block or dish to open shooters when opponents sent double or triple-teams.

Williams led the Boilermakers in assist rate last season, a testament to his ability and willingness to facilitate out of the post. He gave opposing teams matchup nightmares, as he proved to be nearly un-guardable one-on-one and was constantly surrounded by a bevy of capable shooters. When Williams didn’t shoot the ball initially on offense, he often grabbed his teammate’s miss, ranking 4th nationally in OR%.

Of course, Williams could stand to improve on his free throw stroke. The talented big man converted just 50% of his whopping 106 FTA in 2020-21. Despite this, Purdue will once again run offense through Williams, who should be among the favorites in the Big Ten to capture Player of the Year honors.

Pace likely remains slow under Painter as it has the past four seasons. Purdue’s frontcourt focus has slowed down the tempo in recent years, and this year’s roster is built to play a more controlled style. Eric Hunter stepped into the full-time point guard role last season with Nojel Eastern’s departure and proved to be an effective game manager. Hunter isn’t flashy or very dynamic, but he’s a steady ball handler who will provide his team with veteran leadership and excellent perimeter defense on the other end of the floor.

While Williams and Painter are fantastic in their own rights, the real reason to be excited about Purdue next season is the development of the sophomore class. All four freshmen who received meaningful minutes on Purdue’s roster last season won the Big Ten Freshman of the Week award at least once. Guards Brandon Newman and Jaden Ivey each took home the hardware twice, as did the gigantic Zach Edey. Then-redshirt freshman Mason Gillis won the award once.

Ivey, a Big Ten All-Freshman Team member in 2020-21, will be the most impactful of the bunch next season, as he looks to continue his second-scorer role and evolve into a more dynamic playmaker. The second half of last season is where Ivey truly began to shine, averaging nearly 15 PPG over his final 12 games. A versatile player, Ivey can man all three guard spots and has a quick first step that, combined with his length, makes him a tough assignment to stop on drives to the cup.

And while Purdue doesn’t run a ton of ball screen action, Ivey was excellent as the ball-handler in pick-n-roll situations in 2020-21. Ivey’s time with the U19 USA squad this summer previewed just how good he can be this upcoming season.

Newman started the first 23 games last season as a freshman and will once again fight for starts alongside Hunter, Ivey, and Sasha Stefanovic. Though Newman was inconsistent last year, he proved to be a money shooter, going 94% from the foul line and 38% from behind the arc. His shooting form suggests those numbers aren’t flukes; he’ll be one of Purdue’s greatest outside shooting threats this season.

Gillis will likely begin the season as Purdue’s starting 4-man while Edey will have to spend one more year backing up Williams. Gillis is a versatile, tough forward who provides rebounding and outside shooting. Edey, another Big Ten All-Freshman Team member, is a high-usage post monster in the mold of former Boiler Isaac Hass. Just like Williams, Edey is the focal point of the offense when he’s on the floor, and he’s nearly as un-guardable when he catches the ball on the block. His touch and free throw shooting are unreal for a 7’4” guy, and he had some huge games last season in limited minutes, like when he averaged 20.5 PPG in 19.5 MPG during a two-game stretch. Edey would start for nearly every other team in the country – on Purdue he ensures the Boilers are never without a dominant post presence on the floor.

Sasha Stefanovic will compete for starts once again in his fourth season. A career 39.4% 3P shooter, Stefanovic is deadly catching and shooting off screens. He’ll provide veteran leadership alongside Hunter and junior guard Isaiah Thompson, a diminutive ball handler who chips into the ball handling and shooting efforts. Sophomore wing Ethan Morton likely won’t play a large role this season, but he’s a good shooter and capable (and sizable) ball handler who could crack the rotation down the road.

Only three freshmen join the fold this season for Painter, two of which have real opportunities for minutes. Since Aaron Wheeler was the only Boiler of significance to leave the program this offseason, it stands to reason his minutes are the only ones up for grabs. 4-star forwards Trey Kaufman-Renn (top 50) and Caleb Furst (top 75), both Indiana products, will battle for playing time in their inaugural seasons in West Lafayette. Kaufman-Renn is a long, skilled ‘tweener forward with smooth shooting form who already possesses a college-ready frame. He operates primarily out of the mid-range and off basket attacks. Furst, a USA U19 teammate of Ivey’s, is a mobile power forward who can shoot it out past the 3-point line. On the block, he’s a skilled and strong finisher capable of playing above the rim. Painter’s third freshman, wing Brian Waddell, another Indiana prospect, is likely to take a redshirt year.

Painter’s teams are consistently among the best in the country on the defensive end, and there’s plenty of reason to believe Purdue should improve upon its 34th-ranked adjusted efficiency last season. Williams’ and Edey’s return all but ensures the paint will be locked down. Last year Purdue ranked 6th nationally in percentage of shots allowed near the rim, per Hoop-Math. Added experience across the roster should help clean up defensive lapses of the past, giving the Boilers a crisper product on this end of the floor.

Bottom Line: Barring a slew of sophomore slumps, Purdue will be in the running for a Big Ten title in 2021-22. The Boilers have the sought-after combination of elite coaching, star talent, and developing young talent that seem to be the winning ingredients to forming a Final Four caliber squad.