- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Hunter Dickinson, Eli Brooks, Brandon Johns, Terrance Williams
Key Losses: Franz Wagner, Mike Smith, Isaiah Livers, Chaundee Brown, Austin Davis
Key Newcomers: DeVante Jones (Coastal Carolina), Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, Kobe Bufkin, Frankie Collins, Isaiah Barnes
Lineup:
Editor’s Note: This preview was written before Memphis roped in two 5-stars and overtook Michigan for the #1 recruiting class. But, hey, #2 is still pretty darn good.
Outlook: Michigan’s hiring of Juwan Howard has been a smashing success, so much so that other programs around the country are trying to follow the formula of “hire former player” in an effort to replicate that success. If we asked Michigan fans if they’d trade John Beilein for Juwan Howard today, my guess would be the vast majority would say “no thank you” – that was emphatically not the case two years ago.
It helps Howard has been a monster on the recruiting trail, bringing in the #1 class in the country this season. But Howard has also proven to be an excellent developer of talent and x’s and o’s coach. Last season was Michigan’s first appearance as a 1-seed since Howard played for the Wolverines back in 1993. A 3rd place KenPom finish is the highest ever in the site’s history (1997), and Howard led Michigan to an Elite Eight despite missing one of his best players for the entire Tournament. Howard has established himself as one of the top coaches in the country and there’s every indication his early success will continue into year three.
Michigan was elite on both sides of the basketball last season, ranking 9th in the country in adj. offensive efficiency and 4th in adj. defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Offensively the Wolverines played through 2nd Team All-American Hunter Dickinson on the block and ran a ton of ball screens for their talented ball handlers. Excellent shooting and legitimate NBA talent helped make the Wolverine attack nearly unstoppable. Defensively Michigan was impossible to score against in the paint. Per Hoop-Math the Wolverines allowed the 11th fewest shot attempts near the rim and, per KenPom, Michigan ranked 28th in the country in 3PA rate allowed. Limiting rim attempts and 3-point attempts is a good way to be a dominant defensive squad.
There are a lot of new faces joining the Wolverines this year, but their most important piece returns. Hunter Dickinson, last year’s Big Ten Freshman of the Year, blew away expectations on his way to becoming one of the ten best players in the country in 2020-21. Though his goofy short, choppy running stride with his arms nearly straight down at his side may lead one to overlook Dickinson’s effectiveness, those who watched the big man work (and played against him) realized he was the real deal. Dickinson shot 74.2% near the rim last season, per Hoop-Math, and scored 1.034 PPP on post-ups, good for the 86th percentile in the land, per Synergy. He is much stronger than he looks and uses his body and feet extremely well to position himself in the paint.
Michigan will play through Dickinson this season, posting him on the block and using him as the primary screener in pick-n-rolls. He’s on the shortlist to capture Big Ten Player of the Year hardware in 2022.
A more under-the-radar returner is combo-guard Eli Brooks, a key player who gives his team just about everything on the floor. Brooks will bring veteran leadership to an otherwise brand-new backcourt, as well as stifling perimeter defense and knockdown shooting. If Howard’s new point guards struggle to start the season, he can turn to Brooks to steady the sea.
Brandon Johns is the only other player on the roster who saw significant minutes in 2020-21. Johns stepped in for Isaiah Livers when he went down late in the year and performed admirably in a starting role. His mobility and versatility pairs nicely with Dickinson in the frontcourt, and if he can continue to develop his outside shot (career 27/77 35.1%), Johns could be a serious weapon in his senior season.
Michigan’s remaining key returners have their work cut out for them to see consistent playing time next season. Former 4-stars Terrance Williams and Zeb Jackson both have the pedigree and talent to carve out rotation spots, but the incoming class will be fiercely on their tail. Williams should be in the running for a starting spot, either at the 3 or 4; he’s a physical forward who hustles hard and can play in the post or on the wing. Jackson is a combo guard out of Montverde, a place where he actually came off the pine despite being a highly regarded recruit. In limited minutes against Big Ten competition last year, Jackson posted a 55.3 o-rating (that’s bad), was 0/7 from 3P range, and notched a 36.6% TO rate. His size/length and smooth-looking lefty stroke are assets in the backcourt, but it’s highly likely he’s been recruited over, and we see his name in the portal next year (note: wild speculation).
The most important addition to next year’s Wolverine squad comes from the transfer portal, where Howard will try to fill his starting point guard spot for the second straight season. Mike Smith exceeded all expectations last year after coming to Ann Arbor from Columbia, and now DeVante Jones will try to do the same after winning Sun Belt Player of the Year at Coastal Carolina last season. If you gave me the choice between Smith and Jones one or even two years ago, I would’ve take Jones 100 times out of 100 – he is an electric, quick, and shifty player who should thrive under Howard’s tutelage.
Though branded as a scorer, Jones is a gifted point guard who can lead an offense and fill a role, as discussed in Brendan Quinn’s offseason article at The Athletic. In that piece, Jones said:
“I feel like a lot of people have got it confused,” he said. “Last year, I was forced to score more than pass. That’s what my team need to win. I think I can do it all — pass, score, rebound at a high level, play defense, do all the little things — but more than anything, I’m a pass-first point guard. That’s my mindset. That’s what I’m going there to do.”
As a sophomore at Coastal, Jones played almost exclusively PG, posting an assist rate of 33.4%. As a junior, he moved off the ball when Tyrik Dixon came to town, acting more as a scorer. For Michigan, his primary responsibilities will be as a creator and ball handler at the point of attack. He’ll work off ball screens, an area he exceled in at CCU, and provide scoring and shooting when called upon.
Everyone else of consequence on Howard’s roster comes fresh out of the high school ranks. Michigan’s nation-best recruiting class features two 5-stars (Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate), three 4-stars (Kobe Bufkin, Frankie Collins, and Isaiah Barnes), and one 3-star (Will Tschetter). With the offseason turnover, multiple freshmen should play key roles for the Wolverines this season.
Houstan comes with the highest pedigree; he’s a top ten reclass from the class of 2022, a product of storied HS factory Montverde Academy. While not overly athletic or explosive, Houstan can be an effective two-way player with his length and positional versatility. Arguably his greatest asset to this year’s squad will be his shooting. Expect Houstan to be inserted into the starting five at some point, if not on day one.
Diabate is a top-20 recruit from IMG Academy. He’s the lone recruit capable of manning the 5-spot and features a gargantuan 7’3” wingspan. Diabate is an excellent floor runner and projects as an active defender. He’ll fill a role behind the Dickinson/Johns combination. Tschetter resides in the frontcourt as well, but he’s more of a stretch forward and likely won’t be able to crack the rotation in year one.
Wings Bufkin and Barnes each bring something unique to the table. Bufkin is a skilled lefty scorer capable of scoring off the bounce or pulling up from deep. He lacks strength and top-notch athleticism but makes up for it with skill. Barnes is a human highlight reel, an athletic and explosive wing out of Chicago who promises to develop into a key piece down the road.
Collins is my favorite recruit of the bunch. He’s slated to be the point guard of the future but could give Jones a run for his money for starts this season. Collins has ridiculous bounce and is very strong for his age / position. A confident ball handler, Collins should be able to make an immediate impact on the lineup and skip Jackson in the line for minutes.
Bottom Line: Michigan has all the makings of a top ten team and Big Ten title contender this season. Howard is an elite coach, Dickinson is an All-American, there’s veteran leadership in the backcourt with Jones and Brooks, and there’s a wealth of young talent joining the fold. With Howard at the helm Michigan basketball is in line for many, many more fruitful years.