Pre-Conference Bracketology

-Jim Root

Before we start the two-and-a-half-month marathon that is conference play, I figured it was time to take a mid-season measure of the NCAA Tournament field. I intentionally avoided other bracketologies leading up to this, and as a result, there are some fairly wide discrepancies — but that’s what makes it interesting!

Important note: this bracket is an unholy mix of results and projection, making it an incredibly inexact science and heavily influenced by my own perceptions. For instance: San Diego State would pretty clearly be a #1 seed if the season ended today, and they’ve done nothing to show they’ll fall off. However, I have them as the top #3 seed, because I still suspect the Aztecs will drop a few Mountain West games and not quite continue to be the supernova destroyer of worlds that they’ve been thus far.

This means that for any criticism of seeding/inclusion/exclusion, I get to hide behind the smoke-and-mirrors excuse of “my opinion on how the rest of the season will go,” but please feel free to call me out as you see fit. I promise I will acknowledge mistakes if presented intelligently…

Bracket

Time to play “Spot the Narrative,” my favorite game where I try to identify all of the evil moves my one-man committee made:

  1. Villanova vs. UNC in Round One is a clear attempt to re-create the 2017 National Title game

  2. Two different mid-major vs. mid-major 8/9 games is totally unfair (*nods to Mid-Major Madness’ Big East bit*)

  3. Ohio State against Xavier in Cleveland sounds like fun! Last time those two met in a 1 vs. 9 game, we got an instant Gus classic…IN LEXINGTON

  4. I have somehow screwed over both West Virginia and Vermont by drawing them against each other

  5. Scott Drew against Paul Mills in a “master vs. apprentice” battle!

  6. Kentucky having to go west as a 7-seed is a screw job (just win some SEC games and this won’t happen, Big Blue Nation)

  7. If I really wanted a narrative, I should flip Xavier and Seton Hall for the potential “Chris Mack Bowl” in Round Two

A couple other thoughts:

-Pitting Georgetown (got better when the roster was depleted) against Florida (got worse with a major talent infusion) was a delightful result; I’m sure Patrick Ewing and Mike White would be an epic Checkers match

-I don’t think I would ever stop laughing if DePaul beat Kansas in Round Two. It would just be too ridiculous

-I’m already emptying my bank account to take Gregg Marshall or Matt Painter against Mark Turgeon in Round Two (bracketing note: two B1G teams can play in the Round of 32 if they only play once during the season, as the Terps and Boilers do)

-Over/under on an Iowa/Belmont game: 200 points

Bubble

Plenty of arguments to be made here, and I’m not going to vehemently fight many of them. I do firmly believe Purdue will be in the field despite its 7-5 record and #45 NET ranking, though, and before my Missouri brethren yell at me for having Illinois closer to the field: remember, we lost to Charleston Southern at home, which is arguably the absolute worst loss by a team in tournament consideration (honorable mention to UConn getting STOMPED at home by 3-9 St. Joseph’s).

On resume alone, North Carolina and Arkansas aren’t really similar at all, but they both feel right to be shoved into Dayton at this point. I’m still on board the UNC bandwagon, though, clinging for life on the hopes of Anthony Harris and Jeremiah Francis to provide semi-competent guard play (and a possible Cole Anthony return). The Razorbacks are 10-1, but they have yet to beat a top 100 KenPom team (best win was at Georgia Tech), so their tournament case remains on extremely shaky ground.

As is standard this time of year, there’s a ton of flotsam around the bubble fringes, with plenty of teams needing strong league showings to break into the “true” at-large conversation. You’ll notice zero true mid-majors in the “Others” list; I think UNC Greensboro might warrant consideration if it weren’t for that Montana State half court buzzer-beater (not to mention the NC State one), and others (Northern Iowa, Liberty, Yale, East Tennessee State) would be in the thick of the discussion if not for already having an automatic bid.

Tennessee would likely be in the field right now, but the loss of Lamonte Turner has be pretty low on their future prospects. Turner was shooting terribly, but the Vols’ depth is shaky at best, and they really lack playmakers now.

S-Curve

Highlights signify a new “at-large level” team compared to my preseason bracket

Teams that fell out of “at-large level” are: LSU, Alabama, NC State, Ole Miss, Providence, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Illinois, Notre Dame, Davidson, Washington, Iowa St., New Mexico State (even though they’re still in the field)