-Matt Cox
The Weekend Wrap Up returns with a special spotlight on the little [and middle] guy. Anarchy at the top of the mountain has weakened the Power-6 powers that be, who now appear vulnerable to a commoner uprising. As a tribute to the impending mid major revolution, we toast to the rebel movement leaders who are plotting their respective revolts against the boring, big budget bid hoggers.
At Large Bid Seekers
Before diving into a few intriguing at-large cases in progress amongst the mid major ranks, let’s first establish the relevant historical precedents. Unfortunately, because the NET is still in its infancy stages, we’re left with only one year (last season, obviously) to pull data from. Thus, before reading any further, know that the standard “small sample size alert” and “each season’s bubble pool is not created equal” warnings are in effect.
Temple and Belmont scored two of the last four invites to the 2019 dance party. Their resumes are good barometers for mid-major at large hopefuls, serving as a reasonable proxy for the required performance breakdown by quadrant. Quick shouts to WarrenNolan.com, a go to source for certified [and fraudulent] bracketologists all across the globe.
Temple
Belmont
Aggregating Quadrant 1 and 2 wins, Belmont went 5-4 against Q1 and Q2 while Temple was 8-9 in those contests. The bottom line is that you need to be somewhere around .500 against the cream of the crop, while avoiding any catastrophic eye sores (Temple and Belmont were a combined 25-0 against Quadrant 4). Let the side by side comparisons begin!
Liberty:
The Flames’ win over Vanderbilt in Nashville is on the cusp of bleeding into Quadrant 2 territory, which would give Ritchie McKay and the boys an impressive 2-1 Q1 / Q2 record. LSU’s athleticism overwhelmed the Flames yesterday, but they’re still in command of their own destiny. KenPom projects Liberty to finish with a 14-2 Atlantic Sun record, but I’d take the under on two conference losses. One regular season slip up – perhaps at North Florida or at Lipscomb – should be forgivable, as long as the Flames don’t bow out early in the A-Sun tournament. Quite simply, two losses or less should be enough to punch a second straight ticket to the dance.
Liberty’s recent tear has been ignited by Caleb Homesley, whose name is etched in college basketball infamy with his superb shot making against Mississippi State in the opening round last March:
‘Homeslice’ has been money since rejoining the starting lineup against Grand Canyon on December 8th after missing four games with a hamstring injury. Homesley and Scottie James form a prolific 1-2 punch, while Myo Baxter-Bell is one of the most unique players in college basketball, essentially a linebacker masquerading as a point guard.
Don’t be late to the party when he becomes a national darling during the tournament in March.
Northern Iowa:
There’s no need to regurgitate what my colleague Ky wrote two weeks ago, which details UNI’s recipe for success, as the Purple Panthers have quietly assembled a hefty at large resume. The only scar is a 5-point loss to West Virginia in Mexico, hardly a “blemish” considering what the Mountaineers just did to Ohio State yesterday. UNI is 2-1 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games, and the win at Colorado will be front page cover worthy come Selection Sunday. The Missouri Valley is far more respectable than it was a year ago so based on the following NET rankings, the Panthers could have as many as six Q2 win opportunities on the road still on the table (friendly reminder that wins over teams ranked 76th – 135th in the NET qualify as Q2).
Indiana State: 95
Bradley: 123
Valparaiso: 140
Missouri State: 142
Loyola Chicago: 144
Drake: 150
Furman / UNC Greensboro / East Tennessee State:
It makes sense to lump the SoCon’s ‘big-3’ together, two of whom Jim touched on last week in his Power Rankings (Furman and UNC Greensboro). Ironically, it’s East Tennessee State who boasts the strongest at large resume at the moment. ETSU and UNC Greensboro are separated by just two spots in the NET rankings, but the Montana State heartbreaking buzzer beater still festers as a Quadrant 4 loss for the Spartans. ETSU has a minor wart in the form of a Quadrant 3 loss to North Dakota State, but that should migrate into Quadrant 2 by seasons end. That means ETSU will need to have a winning record against its other SoCon foes in conference to reach or surpass that arbitrary .500 Q1 / Q2 record threshold. In the 10-team SoCon, this a true round robin format so the Buccaneers will see Furman and UNCG twice. Plus, thanks to Western Carolina’s red-hot start, that’s yet another chance to add a Q2 win to the resume when ETSU travels to Cullowhee.
Yale:
Yale’s case study could pose a fantastic test to the committee’s attention to detail. The Bulldogs are 2-3 against Quadrants 1 & 2 but are two possessions away from being 4-1 – just refer to losses at San Francisco (in overtime) and at Penn State (after holding a double-digit lead in the 2nd half). Despite the bad luck, James Jones and co. are within at large striking distance. The Bulldogs will get four more Q1 and Q2 opportunities against Harvard and Penn in league play.
Best of the Rest
Now we shift attention to the Colonial, Big Sky and Horizon League matchups, the three leagues that kicked off conference play on Saturday.
Colonial:
The usual suspects, Northeastern, Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra, all prevailed over the weekend, clogging the top of the Colonial leaderboard with a predictable 4-way tie for first place. Northeastern made the loudest statement, dominating a stout Towson team in the DMV from wire to wire. Bill Coen’s brilliance automatically engraves the Huskies into the CAA favorite shortlist, and his personnel is starting to shape up at the right time. With the elastic Tomas Murphy still out and intimidating Greg Eboigbodin recently sidelined, Coen has leaned on a hyper efficient small ball lineup, one that slots 6’6 Bolden Brace at the 5. Brace, scoring machine Jordan Roland, freshman floor general Tyson Walker, along with wings Shaquille Walters and Maxime Boursiquot, are the engine of the Huskies’ prolific offense. However, the advanced on / off numbers, courtesy of hooplens.com, show that the defensive sacrifices are substantial without Murphy or Eboigbodin’s reliable rim protection.
On paper, Delaware’s talent is tops in the conference, while the institutional success of Northeastern, Charleston and Hofstra, all of whom sport terrific backcourts, round out my projected top-4 of the CAA leaderboard – though, Towson and William & Mary could make that statement look foolish.
Horizon:
Chalk, chalk, chalk, chalk and… chalk. Favorites swept the board in the Horizon League on Saturday. Northern Kentucky was down two Horizon Player of the Year Candidates, Jalen Tate and Dantez Walton, but still outlasted Milwaukee. If Tyler Sharpe can carry the torch until Walton and Tate come back, the Norse could squeak by Wright State in what looks like a two-horse race for the conference crown. The ‘Next Man Up’ mantra is overused in today’s game, but Wright State and Northern Kentucky have a legitimate claim to it. For the Norse, Walton’s rise to stardom after Tate went down was reminiscent of a YouTube overnight sensation. Just look at the ‘MVP’ tag plastered all over his KenPom player page.
The Raiders are no stranger to the injury curse themselves, but Loudon Love looks like his old bruising self after missing five games in December. Love manhandled Green Bay’s lean frontline to the tune of 22 points and 16 rebounds in just 28 minutes. Don’t worry Grant Basile and James Mann, I won’t forget that time when you both were alpha dogs during Love’s absence.
The darkhorses worth mentioning are Illinois Chicago and Oakland, who couldn’t be further apart on the basketball style spectrum. Remember that steaming pile of garbage that eeked its way on to Memphis’ home floor in November? Well, that version of Illinois Chicago has been shoveled aside. The new and improved Flames are looking like the UIC squad I gushed about in the offseason and are a sizzling hot 5-2 against the spread over their last seven games. Greg Kampe and his Griz are also rocking a 5-2 ATS record in the same span, suffocating opponents with a steel curtain defense. Points have been low priority for Oakland this year but drawing Detroit in the conference opener was like a star baseball player going down to Double-A for a quick tune up assignment.
Big Sky:
Even out in the Great West, there was no escape for the aforementioned cloud of chalk this weekend. Favorites took care of business in the Big Sky on Saturday, but only Montana State did so without breaking a sweat. Danny Sprinkle’s case for best mid major offseason hire added another bullet point with an impressive 66-51 victory over Sacramento State, who welcomed back defensive stalwart Izayah Mauriohooho-Le'afa to the lineup. No Tyler Hall. No Devin Kirby. No problems here for the Bobcats, who are barging their way into the Big Sky title contender conversation.
Weber State and Montana are as vulnerable as ever, while Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah (the only Big Sky team who took the weekend off) are forging ahead of the pack. Trying to pick a winner from this crowded field is tricky. Do I trust Eastern Washington’s array of sharpshooters? Southern Utah’s Power-6 caliber talent? Northern Colorado’s ‘Moneyball’ tactics (head coach Jeff Linder is analytically wired)? In what looks like a toss-up, Portland State’s sneaky strong crop of talent could be worthy of sleeper consideration as well.
Bonus: La Salle / Bucknell:
Yes, I did lose mounds of money betting on Bucknell in this matchup, but this game was truly a microcosm of two teams trending in polar opposite directions. The A-10 is unforgiving, but Ashley Howard’s building a miniature figurine of Villanova at nearby La Salle. The Explorers are 9-3, which features two solid victories over Wright State and Murray State en route to their Gulf Coast Showcase title. Add La Salle to the laundry list of teams who mysteriously improved this year after removing their best player from the equation over the summer – Pookie Powell, in this instance.
On the other hand, Bucknell is truly broken. As much as I want to pull the injury excuse card here, I fear it carries as much weight as the card itself, given all of the Bison’s main actors participated on Saturday. I’ll concede that I’m permanently brainwashed by Bucknell’s stellar first half against Penn State, so my head might need a CAT scan. The Bisons are 4-9 on the year and haven’t posted a respectable victory since Hofstra on November 13th. Perhaps I should consult Big Blue Nation on Nate Sestina’s value, the former Bucknell standout turned Kentucky grad transfer. Yet, even without Sestina, the Bison rank 55th in KenPom’s Minutes Continuity metric, which gives me hope that Nathan Davis can salvage the season with a turnaround in league play. The Patriot League title still runs through Colgate, but it should be a fun race to finish with intriguing challengers in Loyola MD, American and Boston all gunning for their own glory.