-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Will Richardson, Chris Duarte, N'Faly Dante, Addison Patterson, Chandler Lawson
Key Losses: Payton Pritchard, Anthony Mathis, Shakur Juiston, Francis Okoro, C.J. Walker
Key Newcomers: Eric Williams Jr. (Duquesne), Eugene Omoruyi (Rutgers), Amauri Hardy (UNLV), Jalen Terry, LJ Figueroa*** (St. John’s), Aaron Estrada*** (Saint Peter’s)
***still seeking waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: Ooh boy, there’s a lot to unpack here. Before diving head first into a number of roster and stylistic rabbit holes, let me hand the mic to Dana Altman for his 50,000 foot view of the Ducks’ 2021 prognosis – the following excerpt is from an April interview with Andy Katz:
"I think we have a chance to be very good,” said Altman. “We're an old team, and I like told teams. I like working with guys who are focused, have a sense of urgency."
Ahhh yes, like a fine wine aged over many years, there’s simply no substitute for experience. After coping with the turbulence of young teams in 2018 and 2019, Altman’s 2020 squad was a refreshing change of pace. Unlike the two years prior, the veteran-laden Ducks hit the ground running last season, notching marquee wins over Memphis, Houston and Seton Hall all before Thanksgiving break. Altman still utilized his freshmen as needed, but the key contributors were predominantly upperclassmen.
As he alludes to in the quote above, the 2021 roster shapes up to be another older team, but the graduation of offensive virtuoso Payton Pritchard leaves the Ducks without an established floor conductor. Pritchard’s last stand was a mic drop encore. His jaw-dropping production (21 PPG, 6 APG, 4 RPG, 2 SPG) doesn’t hold a candle to his intangible value as a vocal leader, offensive initiator and late game safety valve.
So, now what?
Enter Will Richardson. The velvety lefty is the odds-on favorite to be promoted to commander-in-chief, a no-brainer successor to Pritchard after last year’s stellar sophomore campaign. Akin to his predecessor, Richardson is as cool as a cucumber, never sped up or fazed by opposing pressure. What he lacks in explosive burst, he makes up for in deception, utilizing a myriad of ball fakes and a slithery handle to get into the teeth of the defense. Richardson’s shiftiness as a creator was never in doubt – he flashed that skillset as a freshman - but last year, it was the transformation from inept shooter to deadly assassin that elevated his game to another level. Richardson canned 47% of his triples last season (38/81), an unthinkable improvement from his 28% hit rate as a rookie (15/54).
While Richardson’s a critical cog in the engine, the Ducks’ offense can still soar without Richardson pulling off a perfect Pritchard impersonation. Chris Duarte, another versatile creator, will flank Richardson in the backcourt, who’s a malleable swiss army knife capable of adapting his game in real time to fill a variety of lineup needs. Duarte’s primary role will be a co-initiator to Richardson, but that depends on how Altman integrates flammable UNLV grad transfer Amauri Hardy in to the flying V formation.
Hardy adds another smooth southpaw to Altman’s perimeter ammunition. From a scoring perspective, Hardy’s the most assertive of the guard triumvirate, but the way he willingly co-existed with Bryce Hamilton, a big time gunner, last year in Vegas gives me confidence that he’ll embrace a less prominent role in a more balanced scoring attack. Collectively, this trio is cut from the combo guard mold, a trait that will enable interchangeability on the perimeter at both ends of the floor. Minutes will be hard to come by for top-70 prospect Jalen Terry, but his game-breaking speed could be of immediate assistance in a super-sub role off the pine.
Altman’s savvy roster management is evident in the ready-made replacements he has in the hopper for two key grad transfer departures, Shakur Juiston and Anthony Mathis. Waiting in the supply chain are two east coast imports, Eugene Omoruyi (Rutgers) and Eric Williams (Duquesne). The word ‘tweener’ is often used in a negative connotation, but it equates to multi-positional versatility in the cases of Omoruyi and Williams. Omoruyi’s boulder-like physique and tenacious rebounding will inflict serious damage at the 4, while Williams (another lefty) is a smooth operator on the wing who can score it from anywhere.
Altman faces some tough lineup decisions with how to juggle minutes and lineup combinations between Williams, Omoruyi and a loaded sophomore class still scratching the surface of its potential (Addison Patterson, Chandler Lawson, Lok Wur and N'Faly Dante). I envision Altman deploying offensive-minded and defensive-minded lineups with this laundry list of options in the frontcourt. Perhaps he leads with Williams and Omoruyi, two polished bucket getters, and then spells them with Lawson, an elastic leaper, as a defensive counterpunch. The secret sauce of Altman’s best defenses over the years has been freak athletes swarming on the back line of the zone, which is where Lawson may have a leg up on the veteran newcomers.
Not to gloss over Patterson and Wur, but Dante, the most unpredictable of wildcards, demands his own section. To be frank, if Dante’s sprouts into an interior centerpiece, the Ducks will flirt with top-10 territory this season. But, based on his sporadic contributions last season, that’s a long way to climb for the young Mali native.
In retrospect, Dante’s freshman campaign was doomed from day one. Imagine being 18-years old and joining a team, who’s been practicing and playing together for months, three weeks into the season. Altman, rightfully, tempered expectations immediately, as evidenced by this quote on November 22nd.
“We won’t rush him,” Altman said. “We will give him his time. I think he’s in decent shape, he says he is anyway, so we will see about that. It will be a learning curve and I’m sure it will take at least a month. We’ve been practicing for a couple months so you’d think it would take a while to catch up. ... You can’t do it over the phone, you’ve got to play.”
Against all odds, Dante answered the call of duty. Altman plugged him into the rotation in late December, harnessing Dante’s unrivaled physical gifts into an effective 15-20 minute a game interior disruptor off the bench. Then, just ten games into his collegiate career, the basketball gods struck Dante with cruel and unusual punishment, a knee injury, which sidelined him for nine more contests. Without an operational Dante, Altman deployed an undersized Juiston and cement-footed Francis Okoro at the 5 on a full-time basis.
Ok, truth serum time. As bullish as I am on Dante’s long-term dominance, he still has a LONG way to go defensively. Surprisingly, the Ducks’ interior defense didn’t suffer without Dante in the lineup because Dante himself was a liability at times. His rotational awareness is still a major work in progress, an issue that’s compounded by Altman’s use of multiple defensive schemes. Dante’s defensive lapses in the zone and press left Altman no choice but to yank him in favor of Okoro. Defending without fouling is another pressing item on Dante’s offseason curriculum – he posted a higher foul rate (7.4) than block rate (5.2) last year, an alarming sign of poor shot-blocking instincts.
While Oregon’s defense slipped outside the top-75 nationally last season, the Ducks defended the restricted area with vigor. Per hoop-math.com, opponents converted just 50% of their attempts at the rim, the 6th lowest rate in the country. So, how did the overall defensive efficiency drop from a top-15 unit in 2019 to a sub top-75 defense last season? For starters, Oregon’s 2019 defensive metrics were largely skewed by favorable 3-point shooting luck. Opponents made just 29% of their triples 2019, the 5th lowest rate in America. Altman’s affection for zone always leaves Oregon vulnerable to deadeye shooters. Per the chart below, notice how Oregon’s overall defense has tracked with its opponents’ 3-point shooting percentages.
It’s easy to cite the loss of Kenny Wooten as the reason for Oregon’s defensive demise last year, but the reality is that the Ducks’ paint protection still stood strong last season, even in the absence of a bouncy shot-blocker, and an older and wiser Dante should continue to strengthen the interior fortress.
To avoid playing this game of roulette with opponent 3-point shooting, a shift to more man-to-man could be in Altman’s best interest. The positional size and agility at all five positions sets up for a stout man defensive team and would reduce the number of open looks from outside. Moving away from zone would also help shore up the defensive glass, an area where Oregon struggled last season (301st ranked defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom). Falling in love with the zone relinquishes control of the defensive glass and diminishes the individual rebounding ability of physical and positional glass cleaners, such as Omoruyi and Williams.
Bottom Line: Altman is a master roster constructor. Not only does he recruit to his style, but he delicately toes the line of nurturing young talent from within and supplementing that with external talent from the transfer pools. There’s just no universe in which Oregon is a top-10 offense again without Pritchard, but the defense *should* pick up the slack. This team has length in spades, emblematic of the dominant defenses Altman manufactured in 2016, 2017 and 2019.