-Jim Root
Key Returners: Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts, Gabe Brown, Malik Hall, Marcus Bingham, Josh Langford (injury)
Key Losses: Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman (pro)
Key Newcomers: Joey Hauser (Marquette), Mady Sissoko, AJ Hoggard
Lineup:
Outlook: One of the many, many things I love about college basketball is the way I can’t help but fall in love with certain four-year players who eventually become the heartbeat of their programs. Alando Tucker really started this trend for me back from 2003-2007 (he was actually a five-year player!), Monte Morris crystalized it in the early days of 3MW…but I don’t know if any player has truly pulled at my heartstrings the way Cassius Winston did. He played through in unfathomable emotional gauntlet last season, and it was devastating to not being able to witness him get one last hurrah in the Big Dance. I maintained all year that the Spartans just needed to see the final goal to become the team everyone thought they would be in the preseason, and as Izzo teams are prone to do, they were peaking at the right time in late February and into March. But alas.
(Give me a second while I clean the tears off my keyboard …)
Alright, so how do I – rather, how does Michigan State move on from the loss of its beloved point guard and all-time Big Ten great?
That’s the burning question offensively. Foster Loyer is the only true point guard on the roster, but the bulk of the minutes here will be played by Rocket Watts and powerfully-built freshman AJ Hoggard. Fortunately for the Spartans, the offense isn’t wholly reliant on a single shot creator, as Izzo runs some excellent off-ball action. The team’s execution of that will be even more paramount without Winston’s wizardry in the pick-and-roll; Watts showed some potential here, and Hoggard brings strong passing vision from his time leading the Huntington Prep offense, but neither is the maestro that Winston was.
Playing Loyer or Hoggard will also allow Watts to spend time on the wing and focus on scoring, where he’s probably most comfortable. His boundless confidence needs to be matched by a little more efficiency (28.1% from deep), but he should improve in year two. That swagger doubles as Watts’ best and worst quality, because while shots like this are makeable for him, it’s hard to call them “good” shots by any objective measure:
Izzo knows how high Watts’ upside is on the offensive end, though, and mostly tolerated the Rocket’s bouts of erraticism as a rookie.
The Spartans will also have plenty of scoring talent joining him in the lineup, as Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown, two lefty juniors, continue to blossom into major threats. Henry is more of a slasher, and perhaps no one in the country is more adept at scoring with their off-hand:
Brown is more of a shooter, and he got somewhat buried during the Spartans’ season-ending winning streak, but his game clearly evolved last year. Josh Langford is a wild card, a fifth-year senior who has not gotten on the court since December 2018 due to a persistent foot injury. It’s hard to expect him to be his old self even if he’s able to play, but the backcourt could certainly benefit from a veteran presence and another accomplished perimeter shooter (over 40% from deep every season). Plus, he and Brown would form a nice righty/lefty platoon, so the Spartans can match up with the opposing pitcher every day.
The game-changer on this end should be Joey Hauser, the Marquette transfer who had to sit out last season despite Izzo’s protests. The 6’9 forward can score inside and out, and he’ll be a major weapon in the post, as a pick-and-pop threat, or spotting up around the perimeter. Malik Hall flashed potential last year in a similar role – the Seton Hall game comes to mind immediately – but Hauser is a better player and should dominate the “power forward” minutes.
Alongside those two is a glaring question mark, though. Xavier Tillman was perhaps the best big man defender in the country last year (maybe even best defender overall), and his finishing, screen-setting, and court vision on the other end folded perfectly into Izzo’s system. He led the entire country in both defensive box plus/minus and overall box plus/minus, and his Hoop Lens numbers adamantly proclaim his vital importance to the Spartans:
More specifically, he helped the Spartans dominate at the rim, drew attention in the paint to create better perimeter jumpers, and defended without fouling against the B1G’s physical post players:
Izzo has long been a big man whisperer, developing guys like Derrick Nix, Matt Costello, and Adreian Payne (among many, many others) from little-used freshmen, to role players, to legitimate stars over the course of their careers. He has a stable of options to once again prove that ability, with Marcus Bingham, Thomas Kithier, and Julius Marble all providing light contributions last season. Bingham probably has the highest upside with his length, bounce, and shot-blocking ability (13.0% block rate – would be a top 10 national rate if sustained in more minutes), but he has struggled with the Big Ten’s physicality and needs to add strength. Kithier and Marble are more stoutly built; Kithier could potentially have some Costello equity (and Izzo loves his effort), but he’s physically limited, while Marble would have to skip a step on the development track to be a key contributor after barely playing as a freshman.
The other choice is top 40 recruit Mady Sissoko, probably the best combination of size, strength, and athleticism on the roster. Hailing from a loaded Wasatch Academy prep team, Sissoko is certainly capable of playing a “garbage man” role as a screener, dunker, rebounder, and rim protector, and he’s widely-known for his non-stop motor. Izzo has long been loath to put too much on the plate of his freshman bigs; even Jaren Jackson Jr. barely cracked 20 MPG before becoming the #4 pick in the NBA Draft. Will he break that habit with Sissoko?
Defense, of course, is Izzo’s true calling card. Since 2009, all but one of his teams has ranked inside the top 30 in KenPom’s AdjDE, and the tenacity and physicality that the Spartans play with leads to extreme discomfort for opposing offenses. The Spartans play a shell-style man-to-man, rarely gambling for steals and instead winning with sound rotations and outstanding interior defense. Sissoko and Bingham (if he adds strength) offer the best chance at approximating Tillman’s inimitable impact in the paint, and the Spartans’ perimeter length with Henry, Brown, Langford, and even Hoggard and Watts allows them to consistently challenge jump shots.
Bottom Line: In typical Izzo fashion, this feels like a team with a ton of lineup choices that will take its time finding an identity early in the season before peaking late. The season-opening date with Duke in the Champions Classic has not been kind (0-3 since 2012), and picking up another couple of losses in the Gavitt Games, Orlando Invitational and/or ACC/Big Ten Challenge would not be shocking. Still, there’s a ton of talent, even without the pillars of last year’s team in Winston and Tillman. If Hauser, Henry, and Watts can spearhead the offense, then the Spartans will once again be a threat come March.