- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Terry Taylor, Jr., Austin Peay
Coach of the Year: Casey Alexander, Belmont
Newcomer of the Year: Wesley Harris, Sr., Tennessee State
Freshman of the Year: Noah Kamba, Fr., Murray State
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Belmont
Key Returners: Nick Muszynski, Grayson Murphy, Caleb Hollander, Nick Hopkins, Michael Benkert, Seth Adelsperger
Key Losses: Dylan Windler, Kevin McClain
Key Newcomers: Tyler Scanlon (Boston), EJ Bellinger, Ben Sheppard, Michael Shanks, Mitch Listau (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Committee finally showed the mid-majors some love last season, giving Belmont a much-deserved at-large bid after the Bruins tied for the OVC regular season title. Belmont’s 49th place KenPom finish was Rick Byrd’s second highest in the KP era and his squad’s tournament appearance was the 7th in Byrd’s storied career. Byrd opted to hang up his clipboard this offseason after 33 years at the helm of the Bruins and 38 head coaching years overall; he was one of the best offensive minds in college basketball history and will be sorely missed. Most teams flounder after losing a good coach, let alone a Hall of Fame caliber one, but Belmont will be in good hands this season under the instruction of Casey Alexander, who spent the past six seasons building Lipscomb into one of the best mid-majors in the country. Alexander was a Byrd assistant at Belmont from 1995 – 2011 and maintained his mentor’s style of play when leading the Stetson and Lipscomb programs. He inherits a ridiculously deep roster that should be the hands-down favorite to win the OVC even with the departure of all-time mid-major great Dylan Windler.
The Bruins’ potent offense won’t miss a beat under Alexander after ranking 18th in the country under Byrd last season. Like Byrd, Alexander looks to push the issue in transition and set up open looks and driving lanes with drag screens and trail threes. Lipscomb was the nation’s 12th fastest team last season (Belmont 34th) and Alexander should bring that scorching pace a few blocks over to Belmont in 2019-20. Look for Belmont to take advantage of sleeping defenses off opponent scores, where Byrd / Alexander squads have especially thrived in the transition world:
The guard who made that pass above, Grayson Murphy, is one of the many reasons to be excited about Belmont’s outlook this season. Murphy turned in a dynamite redshirt freshman year, ranking 4th in the OVC in assist rate and 3rd in eFG%. His floor vision should only improve as a sophomore, and he averaged a double-double (points and assists) during the team’s summer trip to Portugal in August. Murphy’s poise is well beyond his years and he makes good decisions shooting the ball in addition to his passing looks – in 2018-19, over 50% of Murphy’s shot attempts came near the rim and he connected on 62.2% of them (per Hoop-Math).
Redshirt sophomore Nick Muszynski was the recipient of that pass above and he looks every bit the next great Belmont player. The reigning OVC Freshman of the Year and First Team All-OVC member finished 4th in the league in O-rating, 1st in block rate, 12th in assist rate, and 2nd in eFG% last season, proving to be equally deadly and impactful on both ends of the floor. Alexander’s Lipscomb squad ranked 5th in the country last season in plays finished via post-up, which means Muszynski is in line to get all the touches he can handle on the block – Fran Fraschilla agrees:
Muszynski scored 1.12 PPP last season on post-ups, good for the 96th percentile in the nation (per Synergy) and proved he could take it to anyone in college basketball. Below, Muszynski takes it to All-Big Ten Defensive Team member Bruno Fernando:
Of course, we shouldn’t expect Belmont to quite be the 18th best offense in the country again this season. The Bruins scored a whopping 1.18 PPP when Windler was on the floor versus just 1.00 PPP without him, so while the returning talent is tantalizing, replacing a foundational piece like Windler is nearly impossible:
Info per Hoop Lens
Byrd usually kept a short rotation over the past several years, but Alexander has been known to play eight to ten guys frequently. This Belmont roster is one of the deepest the program has ever had, so expect to see plenty of fresh bodies taking turns on the court in 2019-20. Redshirt sophomore Caleb Hollander and Boston grad transfer Tyler Scanlon will compete for the starting 4 spot alongside Muszynski. Hollander was a regular starter last season before succumbing to injury; he’s a versatile forward who can shoot, score, and rebound, and he led the Bruins in scoring during their Portugal trip in August. Scanlon is a do-everything forward who led the Terriers in assists last year from the frontcourt. He’s the type of guy who doesn’t need to score 20 PPG to have a significant impact on the floor. A career .447/.382/.766 shooter, Scanlon can stretch the floor as well as anybody in the OVC this season. Regardless of who ends up starting, both Hollander and Scanlon will see major minutes. Seth Adelsperger will be the primary backup at the 5 after turning in a solid junior season of consistent block scoring and boarding.
Alexander has plenty of shooting in the backcourt to mix with his talented front line and floor general. Nick Hopkins is a career 38.9% outside shooter on 275 3PA, Michael Benkert started Belmont’s final four games in 2018-19, logged 40 minutes against Maryland and shot 35.4% from deep, and Adam Kunkel and Tate Pierson can both provide spot minutes on the wing. Freshmen EJ Bellinger and Ben Sheppard are promising newcomers who can both light it up from the outside as well. Bellinger, a St. Louis native, projects as a scary defensive wing with his versatility and athleticism. Sheppard has the size to play multiple spots and the shooting to excel in the transition offense. Another freshman, Michael Shanks, will look to sneak into the rotation with his ability to shoot and play the 3 or 4, though minutes will be hard to come by. Redshirt freshman Mitch Listau is yet another shooter who was one of the top guards in Wisconsin coming out of high school in 2018.
Defensively, Alexander’s Lipscomb squad fared much better than Byrd’s Belmont team last season. The Bisons forced turnovers and sped teams up, the latter of which Byrd’s teams always try to do without the results of the former. Belmont has always been good at taking away the three-point line and playing strong transition defense, two trends that should continue under Alexander. Individually, there’s no excellent perimeter defenders on this squad (perhaps Bellinger can be soon), but Muszynski gives the Bruins enough paint support to be a good OVC defensive unit in 2019-20.
Bottom Line: It’s weird to think Belmont may actually have a chance to be better in 2019-20 than the at-large 27-6 (16-2) 2018-19 squad. The Windler and Kevin McClain losses are huge, but this team is so deep and experienced that there’s reason to believe a repeat at-large bid is in the cards. In the Ohio Valley world, no team should be able to stand in Belmont’s way. The transition from Byrd to Alexander should be a smooth one and the Bruins should once again be one of the best mid-majors in the land.
2. Murray State
Key Returners: Darnell Cowart, Tevin Brown, KJ Williams, Anthony Smith, Jaiveon Eaves, Brion Whitley, Devin Gilmore
Key Losses: Ja Morant, Shaq Buchanan, Brion Sanchious, Mike Davis
Key Newcomers: Noah Kamba, Matt Smith, Demond Robinson, Chico Carter Jr., Jason Holliday (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Murray State has developed into somewhat of an OVC powerhouse over the past 20 years or so and last season enjoyed yet another banner year in program history. The Racers split the OVC regular season title with Belmont and knocked the Bruins off in the OVC Tournament Championship to earn their second straight bid to the Big Dance. Once in the main event, Murray State took it to an unsuspecting Marquette squad before ultimately succumbing to Florida State. Ja Morant, a generational talent and one of the best ever to put on a Murray State uniform, has gone to the NBA Draft, and reigning OVC DPOY Shaq Buchanan has graduated, but the Racers still have a wealth of talent to give Belmont a run at the top of the OVC standings.
Nobody can replace the production Morant brought to the table last season, but McMahon has a couple options to run at the point in two incoming freshmen. Noah Kamba, a 3-star recruit, is a true facilitator who loves to play in transition and likely has the inside track to starting on day one. Chico Carter Jr. impressed in Murray State’s Bahamas tour, nearly notching a triple-double in the final contest despite playing only 22 minutes. Carter is more of a score-first PG than Kamba, but both can run an offense. It’ll be interesting to see if head coach Matt McMahon continues the transition-based attack he gravitated towards last season after playing relatively slow his first three years at MSU. Morant’s presence demanded the Racers play at a breakneck pace, allowing him to wreak havoc on opposing teams with his quickness and athleticism. Without Morant, it’s likely we see McMahon dial down the tempo in 2019-20.
Another focus of Murray’s offense last year was attacking the rim, which the Racers did better than majority of teams in the country. MSU ranked 5th in FGA% near the rim last season, scoring most of its buckets off dribble penetration, transition layups, or offensive rebounds. McMahon has plenty of depth and rebounding in the frontcourt to continue the onslaught on the boards, but Morant and Buchanan’s departures might suggest a shift towards a more shooting-based attack. Like his pace trend during his first three seasons at MSU, McMahon’s squads also shot significantly more threes from 2015-16 to 2017-18 compared to last year.
Tevin Brown will likely lead the Racers in scoring this season, showing signs in the Bahamas when he averaged over 20 PPG during their three-game stint. Brown is primarily a three-point shooter and has a good chance at eclipsing 300+ 3PA in 2019-20. Last season, Brown started all 31 games for the Racers as a freshman and shot an impressive 37.6% from downtown on 229 attempts. 77.1% of Brown’s shots came from outside the arc and 93.3% of his makes were assisted, meaning MSU will still need the creation of Kamba / Carter to complement the smooth-shooting Brown.
The fifth starting spot outside of two forwards, a point guard, and Brown will be a hotly contested battle between several viable options. Jaiveon Eaves, a team leader and one of the few seniors on the squad, played well in the Bahamas and appears to be the favorite to start early on. He’ll need to improve on sub-par shooting numbers posted during his first two collegiate seasons. Brion Whitley probably remains a shooting reserve off the bench; he knocked down 44.7% of his 38 3PA in 2019-20. JUCO transfer Jason Holliday is an aggressive combo guard and two-way player who can score from anywhere on the floor and defend multiple spots. If McMahon wants versatility, Holliday is probably the best option on the wing. Redshirt freshman DaQuan Smith will also see plenty of run after losing most of last season to injury. He can function as another ball handler in addition to being a scoring option on the perimeter. Athletic wing Matt Smith can play either the 3 or 4 with his size and shooting ability and should also see the floor in year one.
Murray’s frontcourt is super deep and sure to keep the Racers among the best offensive rebounding teams in the OVC. Darnell Cowart, an OVC All-Newcomer Team member last year, returns after seeing his playing time explode in the second half of 2018-19. Cowart ranked in the top three in the OVC in both OR% and DR% last season, got the foul line at a high rate, and punished smaller defenders on the block. He was the 11th highest used player in the league last year and will be a central piece of Murray’s offense in 2019-20. This is Cowart’s go-to hook move:
Forward KJ Williams lined up next to Cowart majority of last season and Murray was absolutely ELITE when the pair shared the floor:
Info per Hoop Lens
Like Cowart, Williams is very strong on the offensive glass.
Redshirt senior Anthony Smith also returns this season after missing most of 2018-19 after starting MSU’s first four contests. Smith has turned in sky-high rebounding and block rates during his collegiate career and will be a great option off the bench in a backup role – he’d start for nearly every other team in the league. Devin Gilmore will see run at the 4 with his ability to control the glass at just 6’6” – like Eaves, Gilmore is seen one of Murray’s team leaders. Freshman Demond Robinson may not contribute immediately in the crowded frontcourt, but his gigantic wingspan (7’5”) makes him a potential defensive nightmare.
Speaking of defense, MSU will likely be strong on this end again this season, but the loss of Morant and Buchanan will make the perimeter unit much less potent. Brown was an excellent defender on the wing last year (one of the nation’s best from a PPP standpoint) and Kamba has the quickness to an on-ball pest. The Racers excelled last year at taking away the three-ball and held opponents to just 28.9% from outside the arc (4th best nationally). That number likely regresses towards the mean in 2019-20, but McMahon’s squad should still do a good job limiting open perimeter looks. Despite all of the frontline girth, MSU was rather weak defending the paint last year – perhaps with Anthony Smith back in the fold and even more depth, the Racers will turn that performance around this season.
Bottom Line: Morant was the 4th highest used player in country last year and dominated every facet of MSU’s offensive attack. McMahon will be challenged to implement a new scheme and develop once-role players into go-to scoring options. The team trip to Bahamas is bound to do wonders for early-season chemistry and it appears MSU will still be one of the top OVC teams behind the shooting of Tevin Brown and post play of Darnell Cowart.
Tier 2
3. Jacksonville State
Key Returners: Ty Hudson, De’Torrion Ware, Jacara Cross, Derek St. Hilaire, Maros Zeliznak
Key Losses: Jason Burnell, Jamall Gregory, Marlon Hunter, Detrick Mostella, Christian Cunningham, Maurice Dunlap
Key Newcomers: Elias Harden (Xavier), Kayne Henry (JUCO), Derrick Cook (JUCO), Martin Roub (JUCO), Marek Welsch, Juwan Perdue, Cam Jones (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Jacksonville State quietly turned in its best season in program history and was one of the best mid-majors in the land in 2018-19. The success of Belmont and Murray State overshadowed the Gamecocks’ banner year, a year in which they notched a 15-3 OVC record. JSU was a team full of high-level athletes, built to wear down opposing teams with physicality and athleticism. Perhaps the most impressive (and frustrating) stat last season was the fact JSU swept Belmont and Murray State during the OVC regular season (3-0) but fell to lesser opponents such as EKU and UT Martin. A two-point loss to the Racers in the OVC Tourney held the Cocks back from a potential Big Dance bid. Head coach Ray Harper has been a godsend to the school since taking over in 2016-17. JSU has had three straight 20+ win seasons under Harper’s tutelage, a feat its accomplished only one other time since joining DI in 1994-95.
The Cocks lose a ton of production from last season’s squad, which ranked 3rd in the nation in experience, but that’s par for the course for the program under Harper. Impact transfers from the DI and JUCO ranks pour into JSU every year, as Harper focuses bringing in more mature newcomers than sifting through the high school landscape. This year, JSU adds three impact JUCO transfers and a Xavier transfer to go along with two freshman recruits.
Kayne Henry, Martin Roub, and Derrick Cook represent Harper’s three-man JUCO recruiting class, each capable of playing big-time minutes for the Cocks in 2019-20. Henry, the #76 JUCO prospect in the country, seems poised to be the most impactful of the three; he’s a London native who spent the last two years at well-known JUCO Northwest Florida State. Henry is an athletic wing who fits the preferred JSU mold perfectly and will provide menacing defense, shooting, and rim attacking. His length and two-way potential will make him a scary force in the OVC this season. Roub, the #80 JUCO prospect, is a low block threat who possesses good touch around the basket and the ability to shoot the three. Like Henry, Roub will have an opportunity to earn starting minutes right away, especially in JSU’s relatively thin frontcourt. Cook, a former Northeastern Husky, is a combo guard who can create his own shot or shots for others via dribble drive.
JSU was a poor shooting team last year and as a result relied heavily on the offensive glass to score points. The Cocks ranked 3rd in the country in percentage of points scored via 2PFG versus 343rd via 3PFG – only one player last season shot over 33.6% from deep and he graduated this offseason. Harper adds a little shooting to this year’s roster, but JSU will still largely be reliant on physicality, transition, and offensive rebounding to put points on the board in 2019-20. Senior forward Jacara Cross will be asked to step up into a more featured role in the post and help maintain the Cocks’ strong rebounding prowess. Defensively, Cross has put up impressive block rates in limited minutes and should serve as a decent rim protector. Sophomore Maros Zeliznak will also occupy time up front after receiving limited minutes last season.
Aside from offensive rebounding, JSU will look to turn steals on the defensive end into points on the other. The Cocks ranked 16th in the nation last year in percentage of initial FGA 0-10 seconds following a steal (per Hoop-Math), taking advantage of suffocating perimeter defense. With a stable of athletes on the 2019-20 roster, JSU will have the horses to once again be a tenacious defense after ranking #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency in the OVC last season per KenPom. Harper will apply a little fullcourt pressure and play almost exclusively man in the halfcourt.
The aforementioned Henry will be a major part of the JSU defense, as will senior Ty Hudson, sophomore De’Torrion Ware, and freshman Juwan Perdue. Hudson enjoyed a great first season at JSU after coming over from Clemson and seized the PG reins. His size at that position (6’1” 200 lbs.) makes him a formidable on-ball defender and his ability to score off the drive or from deep makes him one of the more versatile scorers on the JSU squad. Ware is another athletic wing who never met a shot he didn’t like. In limited minutes, Ware let it fly, posting an insane 38.6% shot rate (percentage of team’s shots taken while on the floor). For context, that would have ranked 6th in the country had he qualified from a minutes-perspective. Harper likely uses Ware as an instant-offense threat off the bench this season; he connected on 14/33 (42.4%) shots from deep in OVC play in 2018-19. Perdue will see time at the 3 and 4 in his rookie season; he’s very athletic and has long arms to make him a versatile defender.
JSU’s greatest hope for shooting competence in 2019-20 is Elias Harden, a Xavier transfer who received an eligibility waiver this offseason to play right away. Harden, originally a 4-star recruit coming out of HS, should be a big-time OVC scorer after shooting well for the Musketeers in about 10 MPG. Supporting Harden in the backcourt will be combo guard Derek St. Hilaire, freshman Marek Welsch, and redshirt freshman Cam Jones. St. Hilaire may take a step back in PT this year after struggling with ball security in 2018-19. Welsch and Jones are both point guards who could carve out roles behind Hudson. Both lead guards generate steals on the defensive end and both have the speed to turn those steals into buckets on the other end.
Bottom Line: JSU has been a consistent top four finisher in the OVC under Ray Harper, and there’s no reason to expect that to change despite the loss of several key players. Harper will once again have arguably the most athletic and physical team in the conference, which should help make up for so-so offense. While the Cocks are likely a tier below Belmont and Murray State, they still have a fighting chance to crash the Big Dance in 2020.
Tier 3
4. Austin Peay
Key Returners: Terry Taylor, Antwuan Butler
Key Losses: Chris Porter-Bunton, Steve Harris, Jabari McGhee, Zach Glotta, Jarrett Givens, Dayton Gumm, Isaiah Hart
Key Newcomers: Reginald Gee (Alabama State), Jordyn Adams, Devon McCain, Alec Woodard, Sam DeVault, Pavle Durisic, Carlos Paez, Sita Conteh (JUCO), Eli Abaev (Redshirt), Evan Hinson (South Carolina)
Lineup:
Outlook: Matt Figger has been fantastic at the helm in his two years in Clarksville, amassing an OVC record of 25-11 and two top-4 league finishes. Last year’s Austin Peay squad was the program’s best in the KenPom era since 2000-01, led by a senior-laden starting five and a burgeoning superstar in Terry Taylor. Taylor is back this season to chase an OVC Player of the Year award, but the Govs lose a ton of bodies from last year’s 22-11 (13-5) squad, including four senior starters. Figger will need to develop his enormous bunch of newcomers quickly in order to compete near the top of the conference in 2019-20.
Taylor is an absolute stud and made our Top 100 player list this offseason after ranking 4th in the OVC in scoring last year and 3rd in rebounding. His efficiency numbers are off the charts in his first two seasons given his age and high usage. KenPom’s player comparisons even show that there’s never really been anyone quite like Taylor – the pic below shows player comparisons; very few players in the country have zero guys in the KenPom era with over “900” similarity score (see Jim’s article explaining more):
Taylor is unstoppable in this league, able to score from anywhere at anytime and play all five positions on the floor. Austin Peay has limited size once again this year, so Taylor will see plenty of minutes at the “5” in Figger’s spread-out offense, a position he’s more than capable of playing on both ends. The Govs’ offense runs through Taylor, particularly on the block or on the wing; last season, APSU finished 25th in the country in percentage of possessions ended via post-up and 12th via offensive rebound put-back, both numbers fueled by Taylor’s efforts.
Taylor scored 1.148 PPP on post-ups last year (96th percentile per Synergy) and shot just under 35% from deep with his high-arcing lefty stroke.
Aside from playing through the post, Figger likes to get up-and-down and run in the open floor. The Govs were a top 60 national offense last season and thrived on the run. That proficiency may be hard to repeat in 2019-20 even with Taylor’s return – the APSU roster is littered with uncertainty and inexperience. Antwuan Butler appears to be in line for the starting point guard role after starting APSU’s final three games last year. He didn’t shoot very well but is a capable facilitator and ball handler.
Everyone else in the backcourt is brand new. Alabama State grad transfer Reggie Gee will likely start at the 2-guard after being a 3-year starter for the Hornets and earning a spot on the All-SWAC 2nd Team. He’s a strong, physical guard who gets to the FT line at a high rate and has a career 38.1% 3P clip (378 attempts). Freshmen Jordyn Adams and Devon McCain, high school teammates in Texas, will also vie for starting wing duties. Adams is a 3-star recruit with good size and shooting chops who could grow to be a good perimeter defender. McCain was the 4A Player of the Year in Texas and is also a very physical guard with defensive potential. Freshman Alec Woodard will add shooting to the backcourt this season while Venezuelan newcomer Carlos Paez appears to be a contributor as a ball handler in the next year or two.
The Govs were one of the smallest teams in the land last season and will be again this year. 7-footer Matheus Silveira barely saw the floor in 2018-19 and it’s unclear if he’ll have a larger role this season. He can add value as a rim protector defensively but doesn’t jive well with Figger’s preferred offensive style. The four frontcourt newcomers, Eli Abaev (redshirted last year), Sam DeVault (FR), Pavle Durisic (FR), and Sita Conteh (JUCO) all have the requisite talent to carve out playing time this season, but none are “traditional” big men. Abaev, a 3/4 tweener, averaged 17.0 PPG and 15.3 PPG this summer representing the USA in the European Maccabi Games; he’s skilled in the paint and has a nose for the ball when it bounces off the glass. DeVault and Durisic both have the size to play the 4 or 5 and shooting ability to space the floor. Durisic in particular is a guy to keep an eye on – his shot is pure, and he can beat slower forwards off the dribble at 6’10”. Conteh is extremely versatile and athletic; he’ll provide value on both ends of the floor at multiple positions. South Carolina transfer Evan Hinson will add some muscle to the front line and has received heaping praise this offseason from Figger. The former football player is a bowling ball at 6’4” 240 lbs.
The size issue will lead to similar interior defense issues this season. While the Govs were #1 in the OVC in TO rate, they were repeatedly gashed on the boards and in the paint. Figger implemented some 2-3 zone (19% of possessions, 87th highest rate nationally) to combat the paint problems, but APSU largely struggled in those looks. The Govs’ full-court pressure, however, was very successful.
Bottom Line: After Terry Taylor, APSU’s lineup configurations and season outlook is complete guesswork. Figger appears to be a competent coach, perhaps capable of molding this group into a conference contender, but there are too many unknowns to say with any certainty.
5. Morehead State
Key Returners: Jordan Walker, De’Von Cooper, James Baker, Djimon Henson, Malik Riddle
Key Losses: AJ Hicks, Lamontray Harris, Malek Green, Ja’Cori Wilson
Key Newcomers: Justin Thomas (Northern Illinois), LJ Bryan (JUCO), Jaden Stanley-Williams (JUCO), Ta’Lon Cooper, Tyzhaun Claude, Julius Dixon, Tada Stricklen (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Morehead State was the “best of the worst” in the OVC last season, finishing 5th in the league despite landing five games back of the 4th place Governors and notching just an 8-10 conference record. Head coach Preston Spradlin has yet to make any real headway at Morehead after taking over the program from Sean Woods back in 2016-17. His Eagles finished 36 spots below their 2018-19 preseason KenPom ranking, a spot that was given to them in large part due to ranking 12th in the nation in minutes continuity. Spradlin brings back an All-OVC performer and adds some promising talent via the JUCO and HS ranks, but MSU won’t be threatening for an OVC title in 2019-20.
MSU was an extremely balanced team offensively last season from a play-type perspective. The Eagles ranked right around the national average in nearly every play-type from spot-ups to post-ups and everything in between. Spradlin’s offense did have some key characteristics, however – MSU was one of the shortest teams in the country last year and thus liked to spread the floor offensively with four or five players on the court at a time who could drive and/or shoot. Ball screens were used frequently to unleash the scoring potential of returner Jordan Walker and others, and down / away screens were set to free-up shooters behind the arc. Spradlin adds some size with his incoming class, but MSU will be on the shorter side once again in 2019-20 and will likely apply a similar offensive style.
Walker will be the undisputed go-to scorer offensively this year with MSU’s two other highest used players, Lamontray Harris and AJ Hicks, graduating this offseason. The 6’0” senior was excellent last season, earning a spot on the All-OVC First Team and proving to be one of the league’s best outside shooters. With Hicks’s departure, Walker may slide over and assume more of the ball handling duties this year, although Northern Illinois transfer Justin Thomas looks capable of sliding into the starting lineup immediately. Thomas played alongside another bigtime scorer at his previous stop (NIU’s Eugene German), and he should be comfortable deferring to the high-scoring Walker. Depth will come from redshirt freshman Tada Stricklen or combo guard Ta’Lon Cooper, though both are best served being complementary options. Expect Walker to flirt with 20 PPG this season as he’s made the focal point of the Eagle attack and is run off scores of ball screens.
De’Von Cooper and Djimon Henson project to be two of Walker’s main backcourt cohorts this season. Cooper improved his three-point shooting from 28.7% as a freshman to 35.4% last year and started all 31 games for the Eagles in 2018-19. Henson’s shooting percentage went the opposite way, tanking after a productive 2017-18 season. Cooper is a lock to start all year, while Henson will likely resume a support role as an off-the-bench piece or spot starter. Sophomore Malik Riddle could be in line for a major uptick in minutes after an efficient shooting year inside the arc and a brutal shooting year outside the arc. His 81.8% FT clip suggests perhaps his microscopically low 3P% was simply a victim of small sample size.
Spradlin will have two typical MSU forwards earning major minutes at the 4 and 5 spots this season in James Baker and Jaden Stanley-Williams. Neither is a true post player but both guys are long and have the mobility and skill to beat slower defenders off the bounce. Baker shot 44.2% from three in OVC play last year (6th in conference) and ranked 3rd in the league in block rate, though his resistance against bigger post-men on the block left much to be desired. Stanley-Williams was a strong rebounder in JUCO and should aid in that realm in the DI ranks – the Eagles were the second-worst defensive rebounding team in the conference last season and severely need help in that area.
Morehead was consistently pounded on the interior last season, giving up countless offensive rebounds and post-up scores. Help is on the way in that department with the addition of JUCO transfer LJ Bryan, a sizable center standing 6’9” and weighing in at 250 lbs. Bryan should bolster MSU’s rebounding on both ends of the floor and give them a daunting presence in the paint on defense – he won’t necessarily block a ton of shots, but his size will allow him to push opposing post players off the block. Freshman Tyzhaun Clyde should also be a factor in the frontcourt rotation. An older freshman thanks to a post-grad year, Clyde is a long post player who projects as an able shot blocker. Fellow freshman Julius Dixon could also see minutes at the 4, but he’s more suited on the wing as a “3-and-D” specialist.
Bottom Line: Morehead’s outlook for 2019-20 is pretty similar to last year. The Eagles will have a deep and talented backcourt and will be capable of beating up on the lesser OVC teams in conference play. Size and interior depth will continue to hurt their chances for an auto-bid and keep them a couple notches below the teams in the top tier.
6. Tennessee Martin
Key Returners: Quintin Dove, Craig Randall, Derek Hawthorne
Key Losses: Preston Parks, Kevin Little, Fatodd Lewis, Minfeke Sanoe, DelFincko Bogan, Jailen Gill, Parrish Hewitt
Key Newcomers: Parker Stewart (Pittsburgh), Jordan Pierce (JUCO), Miles Thomas (JUCO), Steve Wooten Jr. (JUCO), Trenten Williams (JUCO), Ja’Darius Harris, Eman Sertovic, Isaac Aguiar, Eric Rustin, Hannes Polla (Oklahoma)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Skyhawks finished among the 6-12 foursome in the OVC last year, plagued by poor defense in spite of immense experience and strong offense. Head coach Anthony Stewart enjoyed a good first season after taking over for Heath Schroyer in 2016-17 but since then has gone 22-40 (11-25) over the past two years. Stewart brings back three starters from the 2018-19 squad and adds major talent from the transfer wire, hoping to lead UT Martin back into the upper tier of the OVC.
UT Martin was the 5th best offensive team in the OVC last season, sparked by offensive rebounding and individual playmaking in the backcourt. But, Stewart’s Skyhawks were pitiful on the other end, ranking 344th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. UTM couldn’t stop anyone last year, allowing the 3rd highest eFG% in the country, endless open three-point looks, and far too many second chance opportunities. All three of those aspects make sense when realizing UTM played the 46th most zone in the country last year, but the Skyhawks actually fared pretty well when lined up in their 2-3 matchup look. When Stewart went man, however, the shit hit the fan – UTM allowed 0.952 PPP when in man-to-man, which ranked in the bottom 5% of the country. The Skyhawks should be a more athletic team in 2019-20 and add much-needed size, which certainly factored into their poor defensive play.
Stewart brings back a key cornerstone in the frontcourt in Quintin Dove, a 6’8” senior who will see run at the 4 and 5 spot this season. Dove was a 2nd Team All-OVC member last season and ranked 4th in the conference in OR% and eFG%. His ability to step outside the three-point line and finish in the post made him hard to stop, and he exploded in UTM’s final game of the season, pouring in 35 points and grabbing 8 boards against the hard-nosed Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Dove was one of the most efficient players in the OVC in 2018-19 and will continue to be a team leader in 2019-20.
UTM has a few options to pair with Dove up front depending on if Stewart prefers to play small-ball or double-down with size. If he chooses the latter, JUCO transfer Jordan Pierce or freshmen Eric Rustin and Isaac Aguiar could see run at the 5-spot alongside Dove. Pierce, who started his collegiate career at Dayton, is the most experienced and is a traditional back-to-the-basket post player. His immense size will be key on the glass and he’ll take up space as an anchor defensively. Rustin is ridiculously long and projects as a shot blocker, while Aguiar is more of a stretch big capable of reigning fire from deep. Oklahoma transfer Hannes Polla also appears to be getting a waiver to be immediately eligible. He’ll space the floor from the frontcourt and add another dynamic layer to what could be a potent offense.
If Stewart opts to go small, look for JUCO imports Miles Thomas and Steve Wooten to see substantial time at the 4. Thomas, a borderline top 100 JUCO recruit, is a superb athlete and versatile scorer from all over the floor. He’ll be a significant impact player for the Skyhawks this season. Wooten is also a good athlete and has major range from outside the arc. His strong rebounding ability will allow him to occupy the power forward slot despite his 6’6” frame.
UTM’s most important player this season will be Craig Randall, a Memphis / Duquesne transfer who became eligible late last year. Randall’s impact on the lineup was profound – before he suited up, the Skyhawks sat at 6-13 (1-7), then proceeded to go 6-6 with Randall, 6-4 when he started. Hoop Lens on/off stats paint a similar picture for the 12 games in which Randall was eligible:
The 6’4” wing will be counted on to provide ball handling, shooting, and playmaking. With no experienced point guards on the roster, Randall may have to step up and assume more on-ball duties.
Senior guard Derek Hawthorne and Pitt transfer Parker Stewart will line up next to Randall in UTM’s backcourt. Hawthorne is a solid offensive player who shot 41.2% from deep in OVC play. Stewart is the coach’s son and comes to UTM after starting 20 games for the 0-18 Pitt Panthers two seasons ago. Like Hawthorne, Stewart is a knockdown outside shooter, ranking 9th in the ACC his freshman year with a 42.5% clip in conference play, and dad plans to play him at point guard.
Three newcomers will provide depth in the backcourt. JUCO transfer Trenten Williams is the only pure point guard on the roster; he would allow Stewart to play more off the ball, and he will compete for starts because of that fact. He’s a scary athlete who makes the rim rock at just 6’3”. He may miss the season with lingering knee issues, though. Ja’Darius Harris is a talented combo guard who brings scoring by way of outside shooting and dribble-drive. Freshman Eman Sertovic will serve as a shooting specialist on the perimeter.
Bottom Line: UTM has a wide array of possible outcomes this season with a possible NCOY in Stewart and so many new additions and the return of two All-Conference level players. Coach Stewart will need to turnaround his squad’s two-year losing trend; perhaps major roster turnover can serve as a fresh new start.
7. Eastern Illinois
Key Returners: Josiah Wallace, Mack Smith, Shareef Smith, Rade Kukobat, JaQualis Matlock, Kashawn Charles, Braxton Shaw
Key Losses: Ben Harvey, Cam Burrell, Aboubacar Diallo, Lucas Jones
Key Newcomers: Jordan Skipper-Brown (JUCO), Marvin Johnson (JUCO), Deang Deang (JUCO), George Dixon (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Jay Spoonhour has done a remarkable job at maintaining a consistent level of mediocrity at the helm of Eastern Illinois. The Panthers have never finished worse than 6-10 in OVC play nor better than 9-7 in his seven-year head coaching tenure. Last year was a down season for the conference outside of the top four squads – teams 5-12 were hot garbage most of the year, helping EIU finish in 6th despite a paltry 7-11 league mark. The Panthers had their moments, beating Bradley on the road and Austin Peay in Charleston; but they also had some trash efforts, losing by 44 to UPFW and by 8 to… Chicago… State. In true Spoonhour fashion, he brings in zero freshmen in the 2019 class, opting instead to go through the JUCO ranks to find fresh bodies. EIU is set to be one of the oldest teams in the country this season with just one sophomore (a walk-on) on the roster; with five starters returning and the addition of some major JUCO talent, the Panthers might actually be able to finally crack the OVC’s top four in 2019-20.
Losing Aboubacar Diallo to injury ended up being a turning point in EIU’s 2018-19 conference season. The Panthers started league play 6-3 with the prolific shot swatter healthy, but then sputtered to a 1-8 finish as Diallo’s playing time became more sporadic. EIU doesn’t have a defensive presence quite like Diallo this season, whose 11.9% block rate would’ve been among the nation’s elite had he qualified from a minutes standpoint. Returning bigs Rade Kukobat and JaQualis Matlock are both so-so shot blockers but offer much more in the realm of scoring than Diallo did. Last year’s EIU squad was Spoonhour’s worst defensively, as the Panthers were consistently scorched from behind the arc (345th in 3P% D, 11th in the OVC in 3PA rate allowed). Spoonhour continued implementing his full-court press in an effort to force turnovers, one area in which EIU has been good over the past few seasons. With so many upperclassmen and a more continuous roster, perimeter defense will hopefully improve for the Panthers this year; the interior is somewhat concerning though without Diallo.
Offensively, EIU is largely a jump-shot reliant team, rarely, if ever, getting the ball to the rim last season. Spoonhour’s style is disciplined and predicated on ball movement and freeing playmaking guards off screens. The Panthers finished possessions off screens at the 6th highest rate in the country last season, largely driven by the play of Josiah Wallace and Mack Smith. Both players were excellent offensively but prone to forcing tough shots in the middle of the arc, as most jump-shot reliant teams are wont to do. Wallace was a 1st Team All-OVC performer last year after coming over from the JUCO ranks. He was efficient in a high usage role offensively, shot well from deep and frequently converted tough mid-range looks. His playmaking and ability to create his own shot are vital to EIU’s success this season. Smith started every games as a sophomore last year and primarily contributed as an outside shooting threat. He’s a career 37.3% on 354 3PA.
Shareef Smith will resume the point guard duties this year after turning in a so-so junior campaign. He facilitated well and ranked 6th in the OVC in assist rate, but he struggled with turnover issues throughout the season. Smith led the Panthers in FT rate last year, one of the few guys on the roster who prefers to attack the rim versus settle for jumpers. He’ll have to fend off JUCO transfer Deang Deang for starting PG honors. Deang, a 6’4” lead guard with a funky shot, is the #62 JUCO prospect in the land per jucorecruiting.com.
Spoonhour has three viable options in the backcourt outside of the aforementioned presumed starters and Deang. Marvin Johnson, the #25 JUCO prospect in the country (jucorecruiting.com), comes in as a long, athlete on the wing with the ability to get his own shot. Like Shareef Smith, Johnson is mostly a slasher, able to knife through the lane and get to the cup at will. He’ll contend for minutes immediately. Kashawn Charles returns to provide shooting from the perimeter; he knocked down 42.6% of his three-point attempts last season.
Kukobat and Matlock likely start the year as Spoonhour’s preferred tandem in the frontcourt. Both bigs can step out and shoot a little and Matlock is arguably the best defender on the squad. JUCO transfers Jordan Skipper-Brown and George Dixon will compete with senior Braxton Shaw for backup minutes. Skipper-Brown is a high-level athlete who dunks everything, Dixon led the JUCO ranks in offensive rebounding last year despite standing 6’5” and being listed on the EIU roster as a “guard”, and Shaw is a versatile wing who missed most of last season due to injury.
Bottom Line: On paper, EIU has the talent and experience to finish in the OVC top four this season. Given Spoonhour’s track record, it’s hard to put a lot of confidence in that actually coming to fruition. Wallace is one of the best players in the league and Spoonhour has depth at every position; if he can’t win this year, perhaps it’s time to find a new head coach in Charleston.
8. Tennessee State
Key Returners: Michael Littlejohn, Emmanuel Egbuta
Key Losses: Kamar McKnight, Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, Stokley Chaffee, Armani Chaney, Dave Morris, Tripp Davis, Daijon Henderson
Key Newcomers: Wesley Harris (West Virginia), Jy’lan Washington (Louisiana Tech), Ben Kone (Oregon State), Carlos Marshall Jr. (JUCO), Jon Brown (JUCO), Mason Green (JUCO), Shakem Johnson (JUCO), Ravel Moody (JUCO), Mark Freeman, Amorey Womack
Lineup:
Outlook: The hype surrounding Penny Collins’s hire at Tennessee State last year didn’t translate into wins as the Tigers floundered to a 9-21 (6-12) mark and notched just one Division I win outside of OVC play (against Coppin State). Collins is somewhat of a Nashville legend after starting at point guard and leading Belmont to an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2006, and he has significant coaching experience despite being only 35 years old. He inherited a team that just didn’t fit well together on the floor, and like this year went through major personnel turnover with several players graduating and transferring after Dana Ford left. All signs point to Collins being a good hire for TSU – perhaps in year two with more of “his guys” in the system and an influx of some serious talent from the transfer wire, the Tigers can compete for a top four finish in the OVC.
TSU brings back just two key returners from last year’s squad as SEVEN players hit the transfer portal and two more graduated. Michael Littlejohn and Emmanuel Egbuta are the two key returners, each of whom were regular starters on the 2018-19 team. Littlejohn mostly played off the ball last season, serving primarily as a spot-up threat from behind the arc. He’ll likely maintain his starting gig this season and be a key factor in Collins’s up-and-down attack. Egbuta will be one of TSU’s primary big men in the middle after ranking in the top ten in the OVC in rebounding rate on both sides of the ball last season. Like several other Tigers, Egbuta had a tendency to get into foul trouble early and often, committing 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes in 2018-19. Sending opponents to the FT line was a MAJOR issue for the Tigers last season; they ranked dead last in the country in FT rate allowed and four guys on the team committed over 6 fouls per 40 minutes (two over 7 and one almost 9(!)).
The Tigers have a wealth of athleticism this season all across the floor, so defense must be a focal point in order for them to win ball games. Last year, TSU allowed the 8th shortest APL in the country and forced turnovers at the 3rd highest rate in the OVC. Collins is keen on taking away the three-ball in favor of funneling ball handlers to the rim – this season, hopefully TSU’s bigs can control their fouling better when challenging opponents at the bucket. With his slew of athletes, expect Collins to run a significant amount of fullcourt press looks – TSU was 76th in the country in press frequency in 2018-19. Last year, TSU also played a lot of zone, usually an extended 3-2 or 1-3-1 variety. When in zone, the Tigers allowed just 0.871 PPP (73rd percentile in the country) versus 0.93 PPP in man (11th percentile in the country).
Offensively, TSU’s shot selection was usually pretty good, but the Tigers had a tendency to over-rely on isolation situations. TSU ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in assist rate and ranked 339th in the country in turnover rate. Ball security, lack of ball movement, and overall poor shooting led to poor offense even with Collins’s focus on ramping up the tempo. The Tigers did well at attacking the rim and getting to the foul line, but it oftentimes wasn’t enough to overcome their other weaknesses on this end. With so many new faces on this year’s squad (3 DI transfers, 5 JUCO transfers, 2 FR), it’s hard to imagine TSU improving dramatically on this end. Like last year, the Tigers have an abundance of talent – perhaps even the most raw talent in the OVC – but it may be too much to ask of Collins to get this group to jell over the course of a season.
Collins brings in three transfers from the DI ranks who all figure to make immediate impacts. Wesley Harris, who was kicked off the team at West Virginia, is the “crown jewel” of Collins’s 2019 incoming class. Harris is extremely talented, a guy who can shoot and score at will on offense and defend multiple positions on the other end. If he stays out of trouble, Harris could compete for the OVC POY award. His impact to this year’s TSU team cannot be understated – he was a regular starter at WVU and played against stiff Big 12 competition for almost two years. Jy’lan Washington will challenge for a starting gig in the TSU frontcourt after coming over from Louisiana Tech a year ago. Washington started 12 games for the Bulldogs in 2017-18, proving to be an effective finisher on the block and capable of stretching the floor. He could pair well with the more paint-bound Egbuta on the frontline. Oregon State transfer Ben Kone will add depth to Collins’s frontcourt. He never really got off the ground at OSU but had his moments in limited playing time. At minimum, he’ll add rebounding and defense at the PF position.
From the JUCO ranks comes wings Carlos Marshall Jr. and Ravel Moody and forwards Jon Brown, Mason Green, and Shakem Johnson. All five of these guys could see major playing time for the Tigers this season and, along with Harris, give Collins the most athletic team in the OVC. Marshall played at Southwest Tennessee CC with Littlejohn and comes to TSU as a big guard who can create his own shot off the dribble. Moody, a borderline top 100 JUCO recruit, is a high-level athlete who can start the break, shoot, handle the ball, and lock down multiple spots defensively. At 6’6” both Marshall and Moody figure to cause matchup issues in the OVC. Up front, Brown, Green, and Johnson will compete for minutes in what should be a crowded frontcourt rotation. Brown, who started his collegiate career at Georgia Tech, can play out on the wing as well as the 4 – his greatest value is on the defensive end. Green, a former Mercer Bear, has long arms that give him sky high shot blocking potential. He’ll add rebounding and should be able to contain ball handlers in the PnR with his mobility. Johnson, the #54 JUCO recruit in the nation, will earn the lion’s share of minutes out of the three newcomers. He can jump out of the building and projects as a dangerous roll man in the PnR.
Freshmen guards Mark Freeman and Amorey Womack are the only two “true point guards” on the roster and will compete for the starting PG gig along with redshirt freshman Monty Johal. Freeman is a 3-star recruit who seems poised to step in right away and command the offense; he’s very quick and stays low to the ground, making it nearly impossible to rip the ball away from him. He’ll rack up plenty of steals and add shooting and passing. Womack, a guard out of Webster Groves in St. Louis, MO, has a quick handle and the athleticism to be a dynamic playmaker in the open floor. Johal, a big-time scorer in HS, played just four games last season before going down with an injury; he’s one of the better shooters on the squad.
Bottom Line: From a pure talent perspective, the case could be made for the Tigers to be a top four OVC team in the preseason. Uncertainty abounds relating to how well Collins can make this roster mesh, but if he does, TSU is a dark horse to sneak into the upper echelon of the OVC standings.
9. Eastern Kentucky
Key Returners: Jomaru Brown, Tre King, Kelvin Robinson, Lachlan Anderson, JacQuess Hobbs, Houston King, Peyton Broughton
Key Losses: Nick Mayo, Dujuanta Weaver, Jordan Oakley
Key Newcomers: Darius Hicks (NC State), Ty Taylor II (UNC Wilmington), Russhard Cruickshank (JUCO), Curt Lewis, Tariq Balogun, Michael Moreno
Lineup:
Outlook: A.W. Hamilton had an up-and-down season in his first year at the helm of EKU, as his young Colonels struggled to adjust to his breakneck pace. Hamilton, a Kevin Keatts disciple from powerhouse high school Hargrave Military Academy, brought with him to Richmond an offense hellbent on scoring in transition and a defense focused on fullcourt pressure and turning opponents over. Nick Mayo, one of the more decorated Colonels in program history, was EKU’s lone senior last year, so Hamilton has plenty of returning talent to improve upon the mistakes of 2018-19 even with the transfers of Dujuanta Weaver and Jordan Oakley.
EKU’s philosophy on offense is run, run, run. The Colonels were the 2nd fastest overall team in the country last season and had the 7th shortest average possession length on offense. EKU attempts to catch opponents sleeping off scores, ranking 9th in initial FGA 0-10 seconds following an opponent score versus 159th in initial FGA 0-10 seconds following a defensive rebound. When not running, the Colonels ran offense through Mayo on the block or high post. The Colonels scored 1.11 PPP when Mayo was on the floor last season but just 0.99 PPP when he sat, a worrisome split for the 2019-20 squad. With Mayo’s graduation, offensive focus will shift to the backcourt where sophomore Jomaru Brown will look to assume the alpha role. Brown was the 5th highest used player in the OVC as a freshman and improved his shooting splits as the season progressed; he’s a versatile scorer and shot creator and equally intimidating defender, ranking 2nd in the conference in steal rate last year.
Mayo was EKU’s only legitimate post threat last year, so Hamilton’s offense will likely be of the 4-out variety and focus more on outside shooting. Sophomore Tre King and NC State transfer Darius Hicks are the only true post players on the roster and each will battle for playing time at the 5-spot. Lachlan Anderson is more of a floor spacer at the power forward position – all three players have posted strong rebounding rates during their career. Freshman Tariq Balogun is raw offensively but holds value as a shot blocker and mobile big in the open floor; Hamilton could find use for him in his up-and-down attack.
EKU’s backcourt is stuffed with talent. Along with Brown, Kelvin Robinson, JacQuess Hobbs, Peyton Broughton, and Houston King return after playing major minutes in 2018-19. Robinson occupies the lion’s share of the point guard responsibilities. He prefers to attack the rim (48.3% of his FGA were near the rim last year) and do damage from the mid-range area. Hobbs was hampered by injury last season but contributed as a pesky defender and ball handler when healthy. King and Broughton are both knockdown outside shooters – King in particular was a sharpshooter, hitting 44.7% of his OVC 3PA.
Hamilton’s newcomer class will push the incumbent backcourt for minutes immediately. Ty Taylor II, a UNCW transfer, is a combo guard who can shoot and handle the rock; he started nearly every game for the Seahawks two seasons ago before seeing his playing time chopped last year. Russhard Cruickshank has an awesome name and an awesome outside shot – the lefty shooter has quick hands and feet, perfect for Hamilton’s style. Curt Lewis is the newcomer to watch this season. He’s a BIG point guard at 6’5” 220 lbs. and averaged 32 PPG and 17 RPG in high school. Lewis is super athletic and strong, able to bully smaller guards in the post or blow-by bigger defenders on the perimeter. Michael Moreno, a 6’7” freshman wing, also figures to make an immediate impact with his ability to score at a high level inside and out. Late signee Jordan Reeves-Young will bolster the perimeter defense.
EKU’s offense was largely inefficient last season, hurt primarily by poor shooting, but its defensive was actually pretty effective. Hamilton’s squad pressed at the 6th highest rate in the country and allowed just 0.797 PPP when applying fullcourt pressure, which ranked in the 73rd percentile in the nation (per Synergy). The Colonels notched the 15th highest steal rate in the country and should once again be a nightmare to handle the ball against in 2019-20 with their depth of athletic guards and wings. Interior defense, particularly at the rim, will still be an issue unless Tre King of Balogun can develop into a legit defensive stopper.
Bottom Line: Despite losing Mayo, the school’s all-time leading scorer, EKU might actually improve in 2019-20. Hamilton has a deep squad, returns six key players from a season ago, and adds one of the best recruiting classes in the OVC. We still may see the Colonels on the wrong end of a couple blow-outs, but this should be a team that competes for a top five or six OVC finish and capable of throwing a few knockout punches.
Tier 4
10. SIU Edwardsville
Key Returners: Tyrese Williford, Brandon Jackson, Cameron Williams, Anselm Uzuegbunem, Treavon Martin, Justin Benton
Key Losses: David McFarland, Daniel Kinchen, Jaylen McCoy, Christian Ellis
Key Newcomers: Kenyon Duling (JUCO), Mike Adewunmi (JUCO), Iziah James (JUCO), Lamar Wright, Shamar Wright, Zeke Moore (Tulsa)
Lineup:
Outlook: SIUE has yet achieve a winning DI season since joining the big leagues in 2008-09. Former head coach Jon Harris failed to lift the program to OVC contention in his four years, limping to a 15-53 conference record in a mid-to-bottom tier mid-major league. Brian Barone is the new sheriff in town, an SIUE assistant the past two years and former assistant under Brian Wardle at Green Bay. He’ll be tasked with improving a program that’s never known success, having finished in the top 300 of KenPom’s overall ranking just twice in 11 seasons.
Barone is liable to switch things up offensively from his predecessor, but the Cougars figure to be a team that will once again rely on transition, dribble drives, and trips to the foul line to score points. SIUE was one of the worst outside shooting teams in 2018-19 and had zero players shoot over 33% from beyond the arc. Expect to see plenty of offense ran through the capable hands of point guard Tyrese Williford, particularly via pick-n-roll action. Williford is a scoring lead guard who ranked 4th in the OVC in FT rate and usage last season; he can be an effective playmaker but must improve on dismal outside shooting (26% from 3) and turnover (24.1% TO rate) issues. SIUE will look to Williford to be the senior leader and pace the team.
Help is on the way in the shooting department with the return of Justin Benton and additions of JUCO transfer Iziah James and Tulsa transfer Zeke Moore. Benton redshirted last season but started most of 2017-18, notching a 48.1% 3P clip on 52 attempts. He’ll serve as a dangerous spot-up threat and will be able to pitch in with the ball handling effort offensively. James and Moore will compete with Benton and sophomore Cam Williams for a starting role next to Williford. James is a borderline top 100 JUCO recruit out of Indian Hills CC and also spent time with Cal Poly back in 2017-18; he shot 40%+ from deep at both previous stops. SIUE will also be Moore’s third collegiate stop after previously playing for SLU and Tulsa. Moore started 4 games for the Golden Hurricanes last year and earned major minutes for the Billikens in 2016-17. Cam Williams showed signs of improvement from behind the arc throughout OVC play, converting 36.5% of his 3PA in conference. He’ll be counted on to be a reliable secondary scorer next to Williford and must improve his sometimes-lackluster defensive performance of last season.
The Cougars will once again be one of the smaller teams in the country, likely starting two 6’7” guys at the 4 and 5. Brandon Jackson is SIUE’s primary post-up threat and is a good finisher and paint defender despite his undersized frame. He started experimenting with a three-point shot in 2018-19, which can hopefully continue to develop and add more spacing to the Cougar attack. Anselm Uzuegbunem and Elochukwu Eke, the two likely starting-5 candidates, won’t provide much production offensively but are assets on the glass and defensively on the block. 6’8” sophomore Traevon Martin will also see time up front either off the pine or in the starting lineup after a so-so freshman year.
Barone adds a ton of athleticism to his wing corps, which should help improve the Cougars’ dreadful defense of last season. SIUE was lit up from everywhere on the floor, allowing the 8th highest eFG% in the country. Harris mixed in some fullcourt and halfcourt zone looks, but nothing seemed to keep opponents from routinely burning the Cougars on the defensive end. JUCO imports Kenyon Duling and Mike Adewunmi and freshmen twins Lamar and Shamar Wright (sons of Lorenzen Wright) all come to Edwardsville with promising strength and athleticism to contribute to the defensive effort. Duling is a big guard who can bully smaller defenders into the lane. Adewunmi is very versatile on the offensive end with his ability to shoot and play above the rim. Shamar Wright could be one of the better scorers on the squad with his shooting chops, while Lamar Wright looks to be a future defensive stopper with his length.
Bottom Line: All reports on Barone seem to imply he’s a great hire for a struggling Division I program just looking to become competitive. He comes from a coaching family (Dad coached at Creighton, Texas A&M, and in the NBA with the Grizzlies) and has served under Tom Crean (Indiana – also played for him at Marquette) and Porter Moser (Illinois State) in addition to Brian Wardle. Barone may not make SIUE an OVC contender overnight but look for steady improvement from the Cougars over the next couple years.
11. Southeast Missouri State
Key Returners: Skyler Hogan, Isaiah Gable, Sage Tolbert, Nygal Russell, Alex Caldwell
Key Losses: Ledarrius Brewer, Gabe McGlothan, Jonathan Dalton, Mark Laros
Key Newcomers: Quatarrius Wilson (McNeese State), Chris Harris (JUCO), Darrious Agnew (JUCO), DQ Nicholas, Jordan Love (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Rick Ray strung together two decent years in a row down in Cape Girardeau, but his team quickly fell back into the OVC basement in 2018-19. The Redhawks missed the OVC postseason tournament, finishing in 11th place and 5-13 overall. Youth was certainly a factor in SEMO’s poor season, as the Redhawks struggled to compete on either end of the floor. Ray loses arguably his best two players from a year ago in Ledarrius Brewer and Gabe McGlothan to transfer and PG Jonathan Dalton to graduation. While SEMO will be a much older team than last year, it’ll still face an uphill climb out of the conference cellar.
While SEMO was objectively terrible on the offensive end last season, it did do one thing well: three-point shooting. The Redhawks relied on the deep ball to score points and notched the 66th best clip (36.6%) from behind the arc in the country in 2018-19. Transition was also a major avenue through which SEMO scored, as Ray had at his disposal a deep backcourt corps compared to a generally thin and undersized frontline. This year’s SEMO squad should follow suit in emphasizing shooting the three-ball and capitalizing on transition opportunities. Ray’s group played at the 4th fastest rate on offense in the OVC last year.
In contrast to its offense, the Redhawks looked to slow opposing teams down on the defensive end, allowing the longest average possession length in the conference on this end of the floor. SEMO was vulnerable in the paint and on the glass but was able to apply pressure on the perimeter and out past the timeline with its bevy of guards. One scary part about SEMO’s defensive stats last year was its opponents’ three-point percentage – the Redhawks allowed opponents to shoot just 32.3% from deep (63rd nationally) despite giving up a very high rate of shots from the outside. This was almost certainly luck, as Ray’s previous SEMO teams ranked 312th, 282nd, and 169th in defensive 3P% over the past three seasons. Even with the three-point defense, the Redhawks ranked 11th in the OVC in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Brewer’s exodus means SEMO will need to find consistent production in the backcourt, on which it will rely heavily to score points. Skyler Hogan returns as the team’s leading scorer after flirting with the transfer portal this offseason. He shot the ball very well in the non-conference portion of last season but tanked once OVC play rolled around. This year, Hogan will be counted on to provide more on offense than just shooting. He’ll likely line up next to Nygal Russell and Alex Caldwell in the starting five in 2019-20. Russell is a combo guard who will need to improve on lackluster shooting and ball handling as he assumes more minutes in his sophomore year. Caldwell will take over point guard duties from the departed Dalton; unlike Russell, Caldwell shot the ball well from deep last season and had a manageable turnover rate.
Both Russell and Caldwell will be pushed for playing time from freshman DQ Nicholas, JUCO import Chris Harris, and redshirt freshman Jordan Love. Nicholas is a quick PG who should thrive in SEMO’s uptempo system, while Love can play either guard spot with his length, athleticism, and handling skills. Harris is a big guard who can overpower smaller defenders with his strength; he began his collegiate career at DII Missouri S&T where he led his team in scoring. Oscar Kao and Khalil Cuffee will have opportunities to carve out more playing time this year as well – both guards shot extremely well from behind the arc (Kao 65%; Cuffee 47.1%) in limited minutes last year.
Ray’s frontcourt will remain limited on bodies with junior Isaiah Gable and sophomore Sage Tolbert being the only two key returners. Gable is a money stretch-4 who took 119 3P last season versus just 54 2P; he’s a good bet to start because of his floor spacing abilities, but he offers little in the realm of rebounding or defense. Tolbert is more active on the glass and can hold his own on the block against OVC bigs. The incumbent starters will be challenged by McNeese State transfer Quatarrius Wilson and JUCO transfer Darrious Agnew for minutes in 2019-20. Wilson likely wins a starting gig after averaging a double-double in 2017-18 and earning a spot on the Southland’s 3rd Team All-Conference. He brings much needed size, rebounding, and shot blocking to SEMO. Agnew is a tough rebounder best suited for the 4-spot. His quickness and ball skills allow him to beat his defender off the dribble and he’s strong enough to score on the block. Both newcomers should see plenty of run this season.
Bottom Line: SEMO will likely hang around the bottom four of the OVC once again in 2019-20. Ray would’ve had a competitive squad had Brewer and McGlothan opted to stay, but instead he’s left with a roster with no proven go-to scorer. Defensively, SEMO should be improved with the additions of Wilson and Agnew, but it’s hard to see the Redhawks repeating that 3P% D and rising too high up the conference ranks. SEMO hasn’t made the Big Dance since 2000 and is likely several years away from ending that streak.
12. Tennessee Tech
Key Returners: Jr. Clay, Hunter Vick, Jared Sherfield, Garrett Golday
Key Losses: Courtney Alexander, Micaiah Henry, Corey Tillery, Malik Martin, Johnnie Vassar
Key Newcomers: Darius Allen (Baylor), Amadou Sylla (JUCO), Larry Kuimi (JUCO), Tujautae Williams, Dane Quest, Keishawn Davidson, Caden Mills (Redshirt), Reece Wilkinson (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Tennessee Tech waved goodbye to Steve Payne this offseason after eight seasons at the helm. Payne enjoyed moderate success as head coach at TTU, finishing under .500 only three times in OVC play, but last year’s 8-23 (4-14) debacle was enough to send him packing. With his departure comes John Pelphrey, the former head coach of South Alabama (2002 – 2007) and Arkansas (2007 – 2011) and most recently an assistant under Billy Donovan at Florida and Avery Johnson at Alabama. Pelphrey inherits a very young Golden Eagles team highlighted by four returning sophomores. Pelphrey may bring TTU back into OVC relevance in the near future, but it’ll be tough to do so in year one.
It's uncertain what type of offensive style Pelphrey will bring to Cookeville, but whatever he implements it’s near certain to be an improvement on last year. TTU was the 9th worst offense in the land last year, per KenPom, a result of putrid shooting inside the arc and from the free throw line and piss poor ball handling. Pelphrey ramped up the tempo at Arkansas, implementing more of a basket attack focus, while his South Alabama teams tended to play in the halfcourt and bomb away from deep. No matter the underlying principles, TTU’s offense is sure to go through Jr. Clay in 2019-20.
Clay was the lone bright spot on TTU’s squad last season, ranking 2nd in the OVC in usage and earning spots on the All-Conference 2nd Team and All-Newcomer Team. Clay will have the ball in his hands every possession, running point and dictating the offense. In 2019-20, Clay ranked 2nd in the league in assist rate while shooting 39.8% from outside the arc. His turnover rate will need to improve, and he tended to get out of control at times, but he’s near unstoppable off the bounce and can score in a multitude of ways. Defensively, Clay is a menace on the ball, ranking 5th in the OVC in steal rate. In year two, look for Clay’s game to mature with a season under his belt.
Clay will be joined by a trio of sophomores in Hunter Vick, Jared Sherfield, and Garrett Golday. Vick was the Eagles’ other stud guard last season, shooting 40.8% from outside the arc and ranking 6th in the OVC in minutes played. Like Clay, Vick struggled finding the bottom of the net inside the arc, but he’s due for an efficiency boost in year two. Sherfield will compete for starts on the wing this season after coming on strong at the tail end of last year. In TTU’s final four games, Sherfield averaged 16 PPG and 5.8 RPG, a promising sign of good things to come in 2019-20. Golday is the lone returning frontcourt player for the Eagles; he didn’t have much an impact when he played last season, but he has a high motor and can score from the outside or on the block. Cade Crosland, a seldom-used guard last season who figures to assume a similar role in 2019-29, is TTU’s fifth and final returner.
Pelphrey will need major production from his newcomers for TTU to be competitive in the OVC this season. Darius Allen, a Baylor transfer, figures to have the biggest impact of Pelphrey’s plethora of newbies. Allen started the first game of the season for Baylor last year and then saw his playing time dwindle. He’ll be a key two-way player on the wing, serving as a potential lock-down defender and versatile scorer. Allen will be joined on the wing by freshmen Tujautae Williams, Dane Quest, and Caden Mills. Williams, a Chicago product, is a long, athletic wing with good handles and floor vision. His shooting and versatility will make him a key rotation player in year one. Quest is a sizable guard at 6’6” but he’s likely behind Williams on the depth chart. Mills redshirted last year due to injury; he was a high scorer in high school and will function as a shooting specialist.
One of Amadou Sylla, Larry Kuimi, and Reece Wilkinson will have to step into a starting spot immediately. Sylla, a JUCO transfer and Mali native, is an active shot blocker and rebounder who runs the floor well. Kuimi, another potential shot blocking threat, is long but still a bit raw for major minutes. Wilkinson, a big center at 6’9” 270 lbs., returns after sitting out last year with a knee injury; he’s a true post who will be counted on for major minutes. None of these three big men inspire much confidence, but Pelphrey has no choice but to put them on the floor.
TTU’s final newcomer is Keishawn Davidson, a former MTSU commit and point guard. Davidson is talented, but he’ll likely be buried behind Clay and Vick this season.
TTU’s defense was actually pretty sound last year, ranking 4th in the OVC per KenPom. The Eagles forced turnovers and denied the three, pressuring ball handlers with their young, athletic backcourt. TTU was weak, however, in transition where it allowed the most opportunities in the country. This led to TTU allowing the shortest average possession length on defense, not usually a sign of a great defensive squad. Pelphrey teams have historically forced turnovers and taken away the three in the past, so expect those two principles to carry on from 2018-19.
Bottom Line: The TTU athletic department made a smart hire in Pelphrey, an experienced coach who can rebuild the program in short order. The Eagles have talent in the backcourt but are much too thin everywhere else and still very young. TTU likely stays in the OVC basement in 2019-20.