-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jermaine Marrow, Sr., Hampton
Coach of the Year: Mike Jones, Radford
Newcomer of the Year: Lavar Batts, R So., UNC Asheville
Freshman of the Year: Kareem Reid, Gardner-Webb
Tier 1
1. Radford
Key Returners: Carlik Jones, Travis Fields, Donald Hicks, Devonnte Holland
Key Losses: Ed Polite, Mawdo Sallah, Caleb Tanner
Key Newcomers: Devine Eke (Rider), Lewis Djonkam (VCU), Chyree Walker (Delaware -eligible in December), Miles Jones, Quinton Morton-Robertson
Lineup:
Note: I solemnly swear I will make zero “Who? Mike Jones!” jokes in this preview. I made three in last year’s preview and refuse to continue such childish behavior.
Outlook: The presumed favorite in the Big South last year, everything was going smoothly for the Highlanders mid-February. Radford had taken some tough road losses against an incredibly difficult non-conference slate, but RU sat comfortably at 10-1 in the league, a two-game cushion separating the Highlanders from second-place Campbell and Winthrop. But Radford lost three of its last five to close the year, and Mike Jones & Co. ultimately came up short at home against Gardner-Webb in the tournament final.
Gone is star forward Ed Polite, a two-way wrecking ball whose versatility unlocked mismatches on both ends of the court. But a contending nucleus remains, led by the backcourt trio of Carlik Jones, Travis Fields, and Donald Hicks, and the Highlanders will have their sights set once again on the Field of 68.
The offense was the driving force behind Radford’s success last year, and Carlik Jones is a terrific starting “point” for that to continue. He is an effective creator out of both pick-and-roll and isolation sets, using his quickness to slice into the lane and either pull up for a smooth mid-range jumper, finish all the way at the rim, or kick to an open shooter like Fields (40% from 3) or Hicks (45%). He probes patiently, waiting for a crease to open up:
With Carlik (first name basis to avoid confusion with the coach) as the clear primary option, Fields and Hicks settle into complementary roles, spotting up or coming off screens to rain down wet jumpers. Local hero Quinton Morton-Robertson adds another dynamic on-ball presence; the 5’8 dynamo won three state titles in four seasons at nearby Radford High School while playing alongside coach’s son, best friend, and fellow freshman recruit Miles Jones. His speed off the bounce should make him a Highlander fixture over the next four seasons, and he’s a perfect fit in a league known for its sub-5’10 stars.
Polite’s graduation leaves a chasm in the lineup, though. Coach Jones would often run action through Polite in the mid-post, confident in his ability to win one-on-one matchups with smaller or slower foes. Rider transfer Devine Eke and veterans Devin Hutchinson and Leroy Butts can all replicate some aspects of Polite’s game, but none can fully fill his shoes - the closest facsimile won’t be eligible until December, Delaware transfer Chyree Walker. Eke and Butts are stout, switchable defenders, while Hutchinson brings more of an offensive game (and three-point range that Polite never quite mastered). Walker carries more of the versatile, hyper-athlete traits that made Polite so good, and he may end up slotting in as a starter as soon as he’s eligible. Coach’s son Miles is a wildcard, though I’m not sure he’s ready for the speed of the D1 game yet. Devonnte Holland is back to man the center spot after playing behind Mawdo Sallah last year, with VCU transfer Lewis Djonkam providing depth. In Jones’s system, the center doesn’t get many designed touches, instead serving as a dunker and one-man wrecking crew on the offensive glass.
Fields and Morton-Robertson will key the defense, where Jones wants to extend ball pressure, sometimes for 94 feet. Both guards have the quickness to get up under opponents, and Carlik Jones is no slouch, either. Jones has packed his defense in significantly more in recent seasons, though – just look at the change in distribution of opponent field goals:
Part of that shift is offenses are more willing to take threes, especially in the Big South, but it’s also by design: Jones is giving up more jump shots to shield the rim, packing the paint and relying on the guards’ quickness to contest shots. The decrease in 2FG jumpers is concerning, but Jones clearly finds the trend tolerable enough to allow it to continue.
Bottom Line: Polite was a 3.5-year starter and consistent force in the league, and with his graduation, the Highlanders become even more perimeter-oriented. Still, Radford is as good a pick as any to win the league, especially given the graduations and transfers that the rest of the contenders sustained. Carlik Jones is probably a top three choice for league POY, and with a solid supporting cast and excellent coach, Radford will be Turning Headz once again (YES, a deep cut Mike Jones joke! I will never quit being a child).
2. Winthrop
Key Returners: Josh Ferguson, Michael Anumba, Kyle Zunic, Charles Falden
Key Losses: Nych Smith, Adam Pickett, Bjorn Broman
Key Newcomers: DJ Burns (Tennessee), Chandler Vaudrin (Division II), Hunter Hale (Division II), Russell Jones, Josh Corbin, Jamal King, Chase Claxton
Lineup:
Outlook: Pat Kelsey has become Mr. Consistency in the Big South over the past five years. The Eagles have finished between 157th and 176th in KenPom’s rankings in four of those five years, sandwiched around an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2017 when they slotted in at 113th. Kelsey has been far more erratic off the court, though, twice seeming to be headed out the door in Rock Hill. In 2017, he was nearly introduced as the new coach at UMass before getting cold feet, and then he was briefly reported to be headed to Northern Kentucky this past offseason. Given that he’s a Cincinnati local, the NKU rumors made too much sense to be refuted, but they fell apart quickly, and Kelsey is back at Winthrop once again.
That’s great news for the Eagles considering the consistent string of success he’s had. Kelsey runs one of the most perimeter-centric offenses in the country, cranking the tempo on offense and giving nearly all of his players the freedom to launch from distance if they see a glimmer of space. Winthrop led the entire country in percentage of possessions finished as a Spot Up, one of many programs in the Big South that emphasized spacing and shooting, but few in the NCAA were as dangerous:
That offense has been ignited by a lightning quick scoring guard recently (Nych Smith, Keon Johnson), but this year’s attack may have a different look at the lead guard spot. Chandler Vaudrin, a transfer from Division II Walsh University, is a 6’7 “point wing” with a sublime mustache who led the country (all levels) in triple-doubles in 2017-18. His unique versatility and size should be a weapon for Kelsey, though it may require some slight tinkering with the system. Explosive freshman Russell Jones would be more of a “like for like” replacement for Smith, but although he’s undeniably fun to watch, he may need to add strength to his (dubiously listed) 5’8 frame.
All four of the returning rotation players can knock down an open three, though Michael Anumba and Kyle Zunic haven’t been efficient to this point in their careers. Development as a shooter is customary under Kelsey; Josh Ferguson emerged as a deadly stretch five last year after going just 9/38 in his first two seasons combined. Charles Falden is also quite lethal on the outside, and Kelsey brought in a couple more weapons to whom Vaudrin and Jones can spray passes around the arc. Freshman Josh Corbin has a pure stroke with deep range, likely guaranteeing him early rotation minutes, and another Division II transfer, Hunter Hale, hit 41% of his threes at Grand Valley State with a smooth lefty stroke. Hale emerged as a true star during his second year at his prior stop, and he could force his way into the starting lineup.
Defensively, Winthrop is vulnerable inside thanks to playing so many four-guard sets, and Kelsey counteracts that by playing a relatively packed-in man-to-man. This allows frequent open jumpers, but the Eagles are okay with that, hoping to push off long rebounds. Winthrop also ranked second in the country in % of initial field goal attempts in transition after an opponent score, per hoop-math, meaning they’ll get quick points on foes if they relax or celebrate after a bucket.
Ferguson and Anumba are both excellent individual defenders, and Vaudrin gives them significantly more size on the perimeter. The addition of forward Chase Claxton, younger brother of former Georgia forward and recent NBA draftee Nicolas Claxton, will allow Kelsey to play some two-big lineups, as well. He and Ferguson are both versatile enough to switch onto guards at times. Perhaps most importantly, Tennessee transfer DJ Burns received a waiver for immediate eligibility just before practice started, and the local boy from Rock Hill gives Kelsey a true five man. Burns, a former 4-star recruit, should be able to dominate the paint in Kelsey’s four-out system given his combination of size and touch around the tin. He’ll need to prove he can consistently play at the Eagles’ breakneck tempo, though.
Bottom Line: As long as Kelsey is at the helm, Winthrop will almost certainly remain around the Big South’s upper tier. He smartly uses different avenues to find talent (a third Division II transfer, the immaculately named Adonis Arms, will sit out this year), and his uptempo, bombs-away attack appeals to players. With some impact additions and another lethal cadre of shooters, the Eagles are a real title contender once again.
3. Gardner-Webb
Key Returners: Jose Perez, Jaheam Cornwall, Nate Johnson, Eric Jamison, Christian Turner
Key Losses: David Efianayi, DJ Laster
Key Newcomers: Kareem Reid, Anthony Selden, Lance Terry, Mick Lynott, Sammy Itodo, Erick Valdez (redshirt), Gabe Bryant (redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: In early February, it was pretty difficult to get a read on what kind of team Gardner-Webb was/would be. The Runnin’ Bulldogs had won two ACC road games (at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest), displaying their high ceiling, but they had also barely scraped out wins at home against some of the dregs of Division I (needed OT vs. Kennesaw St. and UNC Asheville, were tied with USC Upstate late). But everything came together down the stretch, culminating with back-to-back road wins against the Big South co-champions, Campbell and Radford, to earn the program’s first NCAA bid in school history. They even gave Virginia a legitimate scare, leading by 6 at halftime over the eventual national champions before ultimately tenderizing in the Cavs’ slow cooker.
Coach Tim Craft loses two crucial pieces in David Efianayi and DJ Laster, but the cupboard is far from bare, meaning the ‘Dogs should be right back near the top of the league. Craft returns both halves of a point guard platoon, but he will often play through burgeoning star Jose Perez, a multi-skilled sophomore who becomes the clear number one option. Craft wants to spread the floor and let his ball-handlers knife through open driving lanes; the Bulldogs ranked 33rd in the country in 3P%, but just 196th in 3PA rate, implying they used the threat of the triple more so than the shot itself. Still, Nate Johnson is back as a deadly gunner, and Perez connected on 38% from long distance as a freshman, both of whom will open things up for other drivers (and each other).
The aforementioned PG platoon consists of Christian Turner and Jaheam Cornwall, and their complementary skillsets allow Craft to toggle between different “types” of lineups (more offensive, more defensive, etc.). Turner is the reputed defender, a quick on-ball gnat who rarely looks at the basket offensively, while Cornwall is more of a shooting threat. Interestingly, though, the lineup data all favored the nearly invisible Turner:
I made a similar chart in last year’s preview, and the trends were closer to expectations – Cornwall boosted the offense, Turner aided the defense. The newer data suggests that Turner simply deferring to the team’s stars helped more than Cornwall’s added scoring presence. With the graduation of star guard Efianayi, the “both together” combo may be used more this year, although freshmen Lance Terry and Mick Lynott will likely warrant minutes too. Terry in particular is an exciting addition: he’s a three-star guard from Georgia with bounce and an effective jumper. And although Anthony Selden doesn’t enter with nearly the same kind of hype that his older brother Wayne did at Kansas, his size and athleticism on the wing would complement Perez nicely.
The spread attack is also used to create space for G-Webb’s forwards to post up; DJ Laster torched Radford in the Big South title game en route to 32 points. Eric Jamison is the lone forward back from last year’s rotation, but he lacks Laster’s post skills, meaning Craft may use redshirt freshman Gabe Bryant on the block at times. Craft will frequently use Perez in the post, too, thanks to the mismatches his size + skill combo creates. Two other forwards, redshirt freshman Erick Valdez and true freshman Kareem Reid, offer more vertically explosive games. Reid is a three-star recruit from the elite Putnam Science Academy (which also produced Perez and Cornwall), and he’s capable of repeating Perez’s feat as the league’s Freshman of the Year. At the very least, his shot-blocking should get him on the floor immediately.
The biggest area of concern is, without question, rebounding. Craft’s scheme de-emphasizes that on the offensive end, which is fine, but other than Perez, basically everyone on the team is a below average defensive rebounder for their positions. Reid, Bryant, and Valdez offer some hope of changing that (plus more minutes for Jamison), but as long as Craft continues to mix in a healthy dose of zone, it will likely continue to be an issue against teams that crash the glass (looking at you, High Point).
Bottom Line: With Perez back as a league Player of the Year candidate, the Runnin’ Bulldogs seem destined to stick near the top of the standings. If the newcomers – Terry, Reid, Bryant – are ready to fill key roles immediately (or at least, once Big South play rolls around), then a regular season title is definitely within reach.
Tier 2
4. Charleston Southern
Key Returners: Phlandrous Fleming, Dontrell Shuler, Ty Jones, Deontaye Buskey, Duncan LeXander
Key Losses: Christian Keeling (grad transfer), Travis McConico
Key Newcomers: Malik Battle, Terence Porter Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook: Coming off a 9-7 year in the Big South and a close loss to Radford in the tournament semifinals, Charleston Southern was primed to be the league favorite entering 2019-20. Unfortunately, Christian Keeling felt the pull of major conference basketball, and the probable preseason POY grad transferred to play for Roy “Aw Shucks” Williams across the border in North Carolina. Without him, the Buccaneers still have an excellent young nucleus with standouts in the paint and on the perimeter, but taking the ace out of coach Barclay Radebaugh’s hand leaves his cards more in line with the rest of the league.
Entering his fourteenth season at the helm, Radebaugh was an early adopter of the “3 > 2” philosophy on offense, sometimes at the expense of potent interior players. Keeling’s presence as a dominant driving guard, as well as a relative lack of shooters, has forced the offense into a more balanced approach recently, but without Keeling, Radebaugh may lean back into the bombs away approach. Phlandrous Fleming is a versatile, athletic wing who missed the season’s first 12 games last year, but he’ll become the offense’s go-to guy now. The presumed starting backcourt of Deontaye Buskey and Dontrell Shuler won’t scare opponents with shooting, but Nate Louis is highly flammable off the bench (53% from deep), and he should see far more opportunities after drifting in and out of the rotation last year. True freshman Malik Battle will also be an option; his stroke looks extremely smooth on film.
Radebaugh has a potentially stretchy frontcourt, primarily with forwards Duncan LeXander and Ty Jones. LeXander in particular intrigued me in his minutes last year, but his impact on the offense was a clear negative per on/off numbers:
His shooting can still help open the floor, but those numbers are concerning nonetheless. Jones was effective as a more versatile option, and Fleming may have to fill the departed Travis McConico’s role as a smallball four at times to unlock the court with a plethora of ball-handlers. Timmy Sellers and Sadarius Bowser offer more conventional options at center, but both of them rebounded like 5’9 guards on the defensive end (sub-10% D-Reb rate, which is bafflingly poor).
Defensively, though, the three-pointer has long been a thorn in the Buccaneers’ side. Radebaugh’s scheme, which mixes in zone around 15% of the time, is extremely soft on the perimeter and too often leaves shooters free to tee off from deep. KenPom.com has a stat that breaks down the point distribution that defenses allow, 2FG vs. 3FG vs. FT – if you allow a lot of one type of shot and your opponent shoots efficiently from that range, you’ll rank highly in that category. Charleston Southern has consistently been torched from deep:
To clarify, a low number in the “National Rank” column means opponents rack up triples. In a league with teams like Winthrop, Longwood, and USC Upstate that fire away from deep (like CSU themselves!), that is playing with fire. The Buccaneers tried to compensate for that by pressing full court quite a bit (23%, 20th-most in the country per Synergy) and generating turnovers; Fleming and Buskey are especially disruptive.
Bottom Line: What could have been a banner year with Keeling leading the way is now more uncertain. Radebaugh still has a strong perimeter nucleus, but the interior group needs to progress on both ends to help the Bucs reach their ceiling. I think Fleming, Shuler, and Buskey could be enough to contend for the league title in a relatively down year for the other contenders, but I still have CSU a hair below the top three.
5. Longwood
Key Returners: Shabooty Phillips, Sean Flood, Jaylon Wilson, JaShaun Smith, Jordan Cintron
Key Losses: Damarion Geter, Spencer Franklin
Key Newcomers: DeShaun Wade (East Carolina), Christian Wilson (JUCO), Ilija Stefanovic (JUCO), Heru Bligen, Nate Lliteras, Leslie Nkereuwem, Abraham Deng (redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Longwood administration took a shot in the dark with the hiring of Griff Aldrich, a former lawyer and CEO who had served on UMBC’s staff for two short years. It’s hard to overstate just how well that went for a program that had been in the dregs of the Big South ever since joining the league in 2012. Despite having to boot his best player (Isaiah Walton), Aldrich led the Lancers to their highest KenPom rating in their 15-year Division I tenure; they finished 256th, compared to a previous high of 295th. Unfortunately, the Big South was also the best its ever been, so that only translated to a 5-13 league record, but optimism abounds with a savvy tactician at the helm and several key contributors returning to the fold.
Walton was one of the highest-usage players in the country prior to his dismissal, so Aldrich had to re-structure his offense slightly, and he did so by featuring fantastically-named point guard Shabooty Phillips even more. The junior college transfer is one of the best free throw shooters in the country (89% last year), and his quickness off the bounce allows him the freedom to penetrate and feed waiting perimeter shooters like Sean Flood, JaShaun Smith, Juan Munoz, and Jaylon Wilson. Phillips, Smith, and Munoz were all superb in the pick-and-roll, as well, ranking in the 88th, 89th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, per Synergy. A big part of that efficiency is due to the spacing that Aldrich’s scheme creates by spreading the floor.
Oh, and if you like three-pointers, you’re going to want to catch some Longwood games. The Lancers attempted them at the sixth-highest rate in the country – over half of their shots came from downtown – while allowing opponents to shoot them at the third-highest national rate (49.8% of field goals). Such high volume from deep for both teams leads to high volatility in performance, which explains how Longwood could win at Winthrop by 14, and just ten days later, lose at dismal USC Upstate by 17. That volatility may become even more pronounced this year with the advent of the deeper three-point line, although this is a better, deeper roster with the addition of guards like freshman Heru Bligen and DeShaun Wade, who received a waiver to play immediately after transferring in from East Carolina.
Having so many different players get chances to create off the slash-and-kick system leads to turnovers when less sure-handed players try to do too much; the bigs in particular were sloppy with the ball last year. The Lancers’ primary post players, Damarion Geter and Spencer Franklin, both graduated, which gives that factor a bit of a clean slate. Jordan Cintron is stretch four who started ten games last year, but he’ll need help from redshirt freshman Abraham Deng, JUCO transfers Ilija Stefanovic and Christian Wilson, and true froshy Leslie Nkereuwem. Deng slides into the Franklin role as the only rotation player not allowed to take threes, but his size and shot-blocking could help the defense, while Stefanovic seems like a perfect fit as a stretch big. Wilson reached the national semifinals with South Plains, and although he was a role player for that team, that may make it even easier for him to fit in quickly on a team with plenty of established offensive weapons.
Defensively, as mentioned, the Lancers are prone to getting torched from deep thanks to the packed-in man-to-man that Aldrich prefers; Hampton had a ludicrous 16/24 shooting day from deep against the Longwood defense. That is offset by preventing easy points at the basket: per hoop-math, Longwood gave up the 39th-fewest shots at the rim, and that could get even better if Deng’s size deters would-be drivers. Without Geter, Franklin, Gus Okafor, and Pernell Adgei, though, the defensive rebounding could be a concern, underlining the importance of the new bigs being ready immediately.
Bottom Line: Aldrich took a crucial step in his first year: he found an identity for a school that did not have one, and his slash-and-kick offense empowers the roster to make plays. Newcomers like Wilson, Wade, and Bligen increase the roster’s athleticism, and the perimeter shooting should once again be dangerous from four (and sometimes five) positions. The Lancers look like a team on the rise, with Griff and Shabooty leading the way.
6. Hampton
Key Returners: Jermaine Marrow, Greg Heckstall, Trey Carver, Benjamin Stanley
Key Losses: Kalin Fisher, Trevond Barnes, Akim Mitchell, Lysander Bracey
Key Newcomers: Davion Warren (JUCO), Ed Oliver-Hampton (JUCO), Deuce Dean, Shaheem Anthony (JUCO), Khiry Shelton (JUCO), Danny Bannister
Lineup:
Outlook: Hampton nearly experienced its own special horror film this offseason, as senior bucket getter Jermaine Marrow announced his intention to transfer on August 27th via Twitter. Losing such a prolific scorer (already has nearly 2,000 points in his career) would be a brutal blow for any team, but in late August for a Pirates squad that already lost four of its top six players? That would have been crippling – as in, “352nd in the country,” per barttorvik.com. Thankfully for coach Buck Joyner, Marrow changed course just over a week later, preventing the bottom from falling out for Hampton (note: tip of the cap to Mr. Torvik, who updated his site to reflect Marrow’s return before I could get a screenshot of the #352 ranking – you’ll just have to trust me).
Marrow is absolutely pivotal to Joyner’s style, which means pushing the tempo on offense and giving his guards immense freedom to attack in transition. He also runs most action through them in the half court, with plenty of isolation and pick-and-roll to feature his typically prolific guards. Marrow ranked 17th in the entire country in usage, scoring at all three levels and getting to the free throw line a staggering 252 times. His quickness, shooting, and body control make him nearly unguardable, especially for Big South defenders. Oh, and he also creates for others: his 28.3% assist rate ranked 104th in the country.
Unfortunately, Marrow’s primary running mate, Kalin Fisher, is now gone. Enter freshman Deuce Dean, a three-star recruit who had offers from Kansas State and Colorado State, among others. He’s a bigger guard who can play on or off the ball, a perfect complement to the ball-dominant Marrow. The senior ranked in the 95th percentile on spot ups, per Synergy, so being able to shift him off the ball at times and let Dean handle it will be a luxury. Joyner can also play through Greg Heckstall at times, a big wing with excellent vision who excels at the “grab-and-go” as one of the country’s best defensive rebounders.
They’ll have to find some other weapons, though – replacing Fisher will be a committee approach. JUCO transfers Davion Warren and Saheem Anthony can be provide some pop from the perimeter, while fellow JUCO newcomers Khiry Shelton and Edward Oliver-Hampton have more size and will be looked at as Trevond Barnes replacements in the paint. Dondre Griffin and Trey Carver return as purely complementary pieces, but the depth will be important for Joyner’s breakneck tempo.
The depth also helps the defense, where Joyner always mixes in some full court pressure. Marrow will play nearly every minute, but the other four spots should rotate liberally (unless Dean is simply too good to sit), so players like promising sophomore Benjamin Stanley and freshman Daniel Bannister will get some minutes, as well. Joyner’s defenses don’t hunt for turnovers like they did in the early 2010s, but they will speed you up and entice you to take quick shots you might otherwise avoid. FAU transfer Amir Smith can make a shot-blocking impact to help replace big man Trevond Barnes, whose size and rebounding will be missed. How the newcomers incorporate to the defense will probably dictate if it’s just a slight weakness or a severe one.
Bottom Line: Hampton dodged a bullet with Marrow’s near-transfer, and with it avoided sinking to the very bottom of the national rankings. The upside is probably limited with a mostly new supporting cast, but Marrow will likely have some scintillating box scores this year given the Pirates’ pace and his astronomical usage. In fact, he’s as good a best as any to lead the nation in scoring – it’s probably him or Detroit’s Antoine Davis.
Tier 3
7. UNC Asheville
Key Returners: Devon Baker, LJ Thorpe, Tajion Jones, Coty Jude, Cress Worthy, Luke Lawson
Key Losses: Jalen Seegars (transfer), Donovan Gilmore
Key Newcomers: Lavar Batts (NC State), Jax Levitch (Fort Wayne), Trent Stephney, Jamon Battle, AJ McBride
Lineup:
Outlook: Mike Morrell knew what he was getting into last year when he took the Asheville job, but even with that knowledge, last year had to be a grind for a guy who had grown accustomed to success during his time at VCU and Texas. The Bulldogs were the country’s youngest team, narrowly edging out Mount Saint Mary’s (and crushing Duke and Kentucky), as Morrell had to hit the “reset” button following a mass exodus last offseason. The top ten players, minutes-wise, consisted of seven freshmen, two sophomores, and a lone senior, and one of the sophomores was actually a transfer from Drexel (big man Jeremy Peck).
That youth, combined with a lack of size and quality depth, totally derailed the style Morrell wants to play. He’s off the Shaka Smart coaching tree (which is growing like a weed, by the way), meaning he’d prefer to send waves of pressure at opponents and push the ball in transition offensively. Instead, the Bulldogs played zone 75% of the time, sitting back while the young guys learned defensive discipline. With a year of experience and two impact transfers in sophomore Lavar Batts and junior Jax Levitch, I’d expect Morrell to shift more towards the pressing, aggressive schemes he knows so well.
Generating more turnovers will be a boon for the defense, considering how soft it was on the interior last year. The young Bulldogs ranked 345th in 2P% defense, and even when opponents did miss, Asheville was 353rd (dead last) in the country in defensive rebound rate. More turnovers means fewer shots and fewer offensive rebounds, doubling the importance for a team with one true big man (Peck). Levitch, Coty Jude, and Luke Lawson are more of the “stretch four” variety, and although Stephen Edoka is extremely physical, he’s only 6’4.
The group of perimeter defenders appears up to the turnover challenge, though. Devon Baker was a revelation on both ends of the floor last year, and his quickness on the ball will be a perfect tone-setter for the defense. Batts, a former top 100 recruit at NC State, has athleticism to burn, and returning guards Cress Worthy, Tajion Jones, and LJ Thorpe all had steal rates of 2.0% or above in a more withdrawn scheme. Edoka has plenty of defensive upside with his combination of quickness and strength (a stout 218 pounds), and freshman wing Jamon “Doc” Battle is a tremendous athlete with impressive defensive instincts.
Morrell can also count on the deep, talented backcourt to push the tempo offensively. Baker and Batts should take care of most of the ball-handling, but the strength of this team will be that so many players can push the ball. Thorpe and Worthy are both thoroughly capable of attacking in the open floor and finding cutters or shooters, and freshman Trent Stephney’s volcanic offensive game should command minutes right away, as well. Between him and Batts + a year of experience for the sophomores, the Dogs should be far more potent offensively.
In the halfcourt, the Bulldogs smartly kept it simple: spread the floor with the multitude of guards, initiate via pick-and-roll (ran the 14th-most in the country, per Synergy), and attack via slash-and-kick. Jude’s shooting in the frontcourt helped space the floor; per Hoop Lens, the offense scored 0.95ppp when he played, compared to a dismal 0.86ppp when he sat. Levitch is another option in that role after filling it nicely for Fort Wayne (I saw too much of him while constantly watching John Konchar games).
Bottom Line: Asheville should be significantly better with added experience for so many young players and the additions of the two transfers, both of whom sat out last year. That means Morrell doesn’t have to keep the training wheels on the offense (351st nationally in average possession length), and given the likely increase in pace and low baseline established last year, betting Ashville overs may be a decent angle early in the year. Even though the Bulldogs were abysmal last year, I’m putting them a tier above the quartet of gigantic question marks below.
8. High Point
Key Returners: Cliff Thomas (injury), Curtis Holland III, Denny Slay, Jamal Wright
Key Losses: Jahaad Proctor (grad transfer), Brandonn Kamga (transfer), Ricky Madison, Jordan Whitehead
Key Newcomers: Eric Coleman Jr., Bryant Randleman, John-Michael Wright, Emmanuel Izunabor
Lineup:
Note: I really hope that’s the actual starting lineup just for the sake of having a II, two III’s, and two Jr.’s in the pregame introductions.
Outlook: Tubby Smith’s transition from the big-time program that found someone more alluring (Memphis) to the safe, comfortable program where he is wanted and loved (High Point) is basically the aftermath of this meme for the upset girl on the right. Memphis is in a torrid affair with Penny Hardaway, and Tubby has settled back at his alma mater for the twilight of his career. The first year of that reunion had some speed bumps, and with four of the top five scorer having departed (the top two of whom transferred), this season looks like another rocky one.
The returning roster will need Cliff Thomas Jr. and Curtis Holland III to rise into primary roles, and that starts with Thomas’s health. He managed only two games last season while trying to return from a broken foot suffered the season prior, but he flashed potential, particularly in a 10-point, 6-rebound, 4-block performance on the road at Charleston Southern. Smith will run offense through a big when he can, and Thomas probably has the highest potential this year. Holland III, on the other hand, is a burly wing (6’2, 217 pound) who showed the ability to score inside and out last year. He’s a physical mismatch for most Big South guards, though his finishing at the rim (just 50%, per hoop-math) must improve.
Smith’s offenses are pretty structured, using off-ball movement and cutting to create team-based offense, rather than relying on a single guard to generate shots via pick-and-roll. Still, he will want to see progress from the point guard tandem of Denny Slay II and Jamal Wright, both of whom will be asked to do more without Jahaad Proctor around. Neither is a threat from the perimeter, and the team functioned far better when Proctor simply ran the team:
Those splits are highly concerning; there’s no safety net like Proctor around, even if Holland III does break out into an all-conference guy.
The backcourt currently lacks depth and could use some help from either Bryant Randleman or John-Michael Wright. Both are more natural with the ball in their hands, though, which could push Wright or Slay off the ball at times and allow sophomore Rob Peterson III to see more minutes. Randleman is a lanky point guard at 6’4, a lefty with excellent vision. Wright is a lightning-quick jitterbug who can get into the lane at will. As a whole, the backcourt sorely lacks shooting, which will not be anything new for Tubby Smith; his last three teams have ranked 341st, 327th, and 337th nationally in 3P% (first two at Memphis).
Alongside Thomas, Caden Sanchez is another interior option after showing promise in his redshirt freshman year, but High Point’s fate may be decided by how prepared the newcomers are. Redshirt freshman Othello Smith spent last year putting on weight and catching up with the speed of the game; his defensive potential at his size and length is immense. Emmanuel Izunabor, who played with Wright in high school, is similarly thin as he enters the program, but he’s bouncy and aggressive. The real gem, though, may be versatile Eric Coleman Jr., whose combination of size at 6’8 and skill off the bounce will make guarding him a tough task for Big South defenders. Smith also heavily emphasizes the value of offensive rebounding, and he’ll hurl waves of bodies at the boards with this group.
Bottom Line: Tubby’s teams face an uphill mathematical battle every night given how few threes they take compared to their opponents (342nd in defensive 3PA rate last year). That won’t change this year, with his strategy sure to rely on attacking the rim offensively and mixing in zone on the other end. Still, the Panthers had the Big South’s best defense in league play last year, per KenPom, and if they can continue to contest everything and avoid fouling, they’ll avoid tumbling all the way into the league depths.
9. Campbell
Key Returners: Cory Gensler, Jordan Whitfield, Ja’Cor Nelson, Trey Spencer
Key Losses: Chris Clemons (click for how I really feel), Andrew Eudy, Isaac Chatman (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Joshua Lusane, Cedric Henderson (JUCO), Jesus Carralero, Austin McCullough (JUCO), Messiah Thompson, LaDarius Knight (redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: The college basketball world was robbed last March, plain and simple. Chris Clemons, the third-leading scorer in the history of the sport, fell short of making the NCAA Tournament as a senior, depriving the 5’9 fireball of the chance to wow casual fans and diehards alike on the biggest stage. Campbell had actually stolen the Big South regular season title on the year’s final day with a win over Radford, but home court advantage wasn’t enough to propel the Camels to a tournament championship, too. The Camels enter a new era this year, and they’ll hope to not sink to the Big South’s depths as they replace one of the best bucket-getters in NCAA history.
It’s hard to overstate how important Clemons was. He led the entire country in usage rate, scoring at all three levels and using his superb strength and vertical bounce to draw fouls at the second-highest rate in the country. Of course, Clemons isn’t the only loss. Big man Andrew Eudy was also integral to how coach Kevin McGeehan’s offense ran, serving as a fulcrum in the middle and the big man on countless handoffs and pick-and-rolls to let Clemons get going downhill:
That’s fairly simple pinch post action, but with Clemons and Eudy running it, the Camels were deadly: they ranked in the 99th percentile nationally on dribble handoff efficiency, per Synergy. This year, they’ll need others to rise into pivotal roles within McGeehan’s system.
The two obvious candidates to provide some shot creation are juniors Ja’Cor Nelson and Jordan Whitfield, both more conventionally-sized guards that have some familiarity with the offense. Nelson has the size at 6’3 to get to the hoop, but he’s an atrocious shooter (20% from three, 46% from the FT line last year), making defenses content to go under screens. Whitfield has more upside thanks to his perimeter stroke, but he took a serious back seat to Clemons, Eudy, and Nelson, so a significant step up in usage may be a lot to ask. Senior wing Cory Gensler has the most experience, but he’s been the definition of a spot up shooter to this point (350 3PA, 72 FTA); he likely remains more of a complementary piece. Former JUCO transfer Trey Spencer is similarly more of an off-ball shooter, but he had a nightmarish first campaign in Division I (27.9% from deep).
The most intriguing option is freshman Messiah Thompson. Standing at just 5’8 himself, he’ll inevitably earn Clemons comparisons, and his explosive quickness and ability to pull up on a dime won’t do anything to quiet those comps, either. He comes to the right conference to find success at his stature: Clemons, former Winthrop guard Keon Johnson (5’7), and former Charleston Southern guard Saah Nimley (5’8) each won the Big South Player of the Year award as seniors in 2019, 2017, and 2015, respectively.
Filling the Eudy role will be a challenge, as well. Isaac Chatman was the first choice, but he transferred, leaving the Camels completely unproven in the frontcourt. Milos Stajcic barely saw the court as a freshman, but the 6’10 Serbian has some skill to his game. Still, the best option may once again be a freshman. Jesus Carralero is a skilled Spaniard who racked up 3.5 assists per game during his prep school year, and though it will take time to learn the reads in McGeehan’s system, he and Thompson could develop a four-year connection similar to that of Clemons and Eudy.
Around the primary action and on defense, McGeehan has a few athletes to mix in. Another freshman, Joshua Lusane, is a highly-regarded forward with quick hands and impressive bounce. Wings LaDarius Knight (redshirted last year) and Cedric Henderson Jr. (JUCO) can fill it up on offense, but neither carries any sort of defensive reputation. Expect them to be floor spacers around the main action when they get on the court.
Bottom Line: There isn’t much value in discussing the Camels’ defense; last year was McGeehan’s best in six years per KenPom AdjDE, but it ranked 278th in the country, so it wasn’t exactly a banner year. He did turn up full-court pressure, though, so that’s at least a new wrinkle. Still, this team’s fate will be decided by how well the players, returning and new, fit into expanded roles offensively. A strong freshman class bodes well for the future, but I think the upside is fairly limited this year.
Tier 4
10. Presbyterian
Key Returners: JC Younger, Cory Hightower, Chris Martin
Key Losses: Francois Lewis, Davon Bell, Adam Flagler (transfer), Romeo Crouch (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Zeb Graham, Sean Jenkins, CJ Melton, Owen McCormack, Luka Jaksic, Michael Isler, Jordan Gibson (redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Dustin Kerns came, saw, and conquered (on a relative basis) all within two years. Like Longwood’s Griff Aldrich, he elevated his program to its highest ever KenPom rating by far, as the Blue Hose earned a rank of 179th, easily surpassing the previous high of 251st. Unlike Aldrich, though, Kerns did not stick around, taking the head coaching job at Appalachian State after his masterful second year in Clinton. In response, the Presbyterian administration plucked Quinton Ferrell, a 2007 Blue Hose alum, off of Earl Grant’s staff at the College of Charleston.
He comes to a program that was gutted by graduations and transfers, leaving no double-digit scorers returning from an offense that ranked 78th in KenPom’s AdjOE. Ferrell was regarded as Charleston’s best recruiter, though, and the 33-year-old brought in a large freshman class to build around over the next few years. Still, veterans JC Younger and Cory Hightower should be the leaders; Younger is a lights-out shooter (44% on 187 three-point attempts), and the offense sizzled with him spacing the floor, scoring 1.19ppp, compared to just 1.07ppp when he sat, per Hoop Lens. Hightower, meanwhile, is a versatile big man who should blossom into a star with more minutes and shots available. He can score inside and out, with his burgeoning shooting stroke making him a matchup nightmare for bigs who aren’t accustomed to closing out:
Recent Charleston teams have had the luxury of playing through offensive stars like Joe Chealey, Jarrell Brantley, and Grant Riller, and although I’m high on Hightower’s upside, the Blue Hose don’t have the same kind star power and will need a more cohesive approach.
Early in Ferrell’s time at Charleston, though, the Cougars thrived on a physical man-to-man defense, and he will likely try to bring those principles to his alma mater. Senior center Armel TeTe gives the Blue Hose some size in the middle, and freshmen Luka Jaksic and Owen McCormack will get all of the playing time they can handle, as well. Ferrell also brought in three 6’4 freshman guards in CJ Melton, Sean Jenkins, and Michael Isler, all of whom will compete for time alongside Younger on the wing. Melton, a lanky athlete who hooped at Hoover High of Two-A-Days fame, and Jenkins, who spent time with many Ireland youth national teams, would seem to have the edge. All that said, Ferrell’s old coach at Presbyterian, Gregg Nibert, mixed in quite a bit of zone, and with an extremely young roster, he may mix in some different looks, as well.
Ferrell will also need to sort out the point guard battle, where sophomores Chris Martin and Koby Schubert will need to hold off skilled freshman Zeb Graham. Charleston’s offenses have been half court-heavy, relying heavily on the individual creators to bend defenses via isolation and PnR, so the PG spot is vital. Martin is more of a driver who creates contact, while Schubert has a smooth outside stroke. Graham, though, is the most dynamic of the three as a creator for others, a speedy blur that can also create for himself in a pinch. He may get the keys to the “Blue Hose-mobile” on day one.
Bottom Line: Losing Kerns so quickly is a major bummer, but he was a rising star, and Presbyterian hopes they’ve unearthed another one with Ferrell. Such a young team should not have high expectations; this season should be spent evaluating the freshmen and sophomores, figuring out who the cornerstones will be in the future. If Graham, Hightower, and one of the young wings emerge as leaders, that will be a strong positive indicator for the future and likely qualifies this year as a success.
11. USC Upstate
Key Returners: Everette Hammond, Nevin Zink, Bryson Mozone, Josh Aldrich, Brandon Martin, Dalvin White
Key Losses: Malik Moore, Deion Holmes, Jure Span, Pat Welch
Key Newcomers: Mykayle Carter, Khydarius Smith, Tommy Bruner, Mysta Goodloe, Jatayveous Watson, Cartier Jernigan
Lineup:
Outlook: Like Hampton, USC Upstate entered the Big South last year as a brand-new member, but the transition went significantly less smoothly in Spartanburg. New coach Dave Dickerson took over a program in need of a rebuild following longtime coach Eddie Payne’s abrupt, health-related resignation in October 2017 and Kyle Perry’s disastrous one-year interim stint, and that process is still in its infancy. The Spartans went 6-26 last year, and they’ll be one of the youngest teams in the country this season after losing four seniors.
Two of those seniors were Malik Moore and Deion Holmes, the team’s clear two best players last season, who combined to use nearly 60% of the team’s possessions when on the court. That leaves an enormous responsibility for youngsters like Everette Hammond, a scoring combo guard, and Bryson Mozone, a big wing who missed the season’s final 12 games with a leg injury. When Moore missed four games late in the year, Upstate struggled mightily, and the on/off numbers for him all year show his importance on both sides of the ball:
Figuring out an offensive pecking order will be paramount this year. Dickerson kept the offense simple last year, emphasizing space and shooting – see the “spot up shooting in the Big South” graphic up in the Winthrop preview for more detail. Hammond and Mozone are the best returning shooters, but Dalvin White flashed potential, and incoming freshmen Tommy Bruner and Cartier Jernigan will add offensive spark after arriving from South and North Carolina, respectively.
The severe lack of experience is going to show up on the defensive side of the ball, as well. Dickerson has a little bit of size between sophomores Nevin Zink and Josh Aldrich and freshmen Khydarius Smith and Jatayveous Watson, but there’s still concern about the rim protection and rebounding for a team struggled mightily at both in 2018-19. Dickerson played almost exclusively man-to-man, and he does have some potentially solid defenders in Mozone, fellow sophomore Brandon Martin, and freshmen Mysta Goodloe and Mykayle Carter, but there’s no guarantee the rotations and communication click for such a young team.
Bottom Line: Dickerson is saying the right things about establishing a culture and building the program the right way, but unfortunately, that also is probably code for “we are a year or two away.” Upstate will likely get 99% of its minutes from freshmen and sophomores – the roster lists zero seniors, and the only junior is walk-on Andrew Tate – so the expectations should be low this year. Other Big South teams lost a ton, too, but I’m still keeping the Spartans in the cellar for this year.