-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Matt Mitchell, Sr., San Diego State
Coach of the Year: Niko Medved, Colorado State
Newcomer of the Year: David Jenkins, R Jr., UNLV
Freshman of the Year: Marcus Williams, Wyoming
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. San Diego State
Key Returners: Matt Mitchell, Jordan Schakel, Nathan Mensah (injury), Trey Pulliam
Key Losses: Malachi Flynn (pro), Yanni Wetzell, KJ Feagin
Key Newcomers: Terrell Gomez (CSUN), Che Evans, Lamont Butler, Keith Dinwiddie Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook: One of the teams with the most to gripe about losing the 2020 postseason, San Diego State now faces the challenge of following up an historic campaign for the program. The last undefeated team in the country, the Aztecs were a mere one week away from wrapping up a flawless regular season, but questions still persisted about the team’s true ceiling – and they’ll surely carry into this year, as well. They must answer those without the MWC Player of the Year, Malachi Flynn, and two other key grad transfers, KJ Feagin and Yanni Wetzell, all of whom were critical parts of what made SDSU so elite. There’s still some strong talent in the cupboard, though, and Brian Dutcher has proven himself a worthy successor to the legendary Steve Fisher.
What made last year’s Aztecs so impressively consistent was their balance on both ends of the floor. They ranked 11th in KenPom’s AdjOE and 10th in AdjDE, and the style clearly had Dutcher’s stamp all over it. The pack line defense was perhaps the most easily identifiable trait: SDSU ranked 8th nationally in limiting opponents’ chances at the rim and 11th in taking away transition (both numbers per hoop-math), forcing teams to hit jump shots in the half court to have any chance to score.
Flynn and Feagin will be tough to replace on this end. Feagin always guarded the opponent’s best perimeter scorer, and that enabled Flynn to use his instincts as a roving ballhawk. Those instincts – and his ability to pressure the ball – helped Flynn win the Mountain West’s Defensive Player of the Year award, though he was quick to credit Feagin upon receiving it. Matt Mitchell may be a candidate for the same award this year, a burly wing/forward who can guard multiple positions and can similarly be a nuisance off the ball.
As Flynn and Feagin depart, though, the perimeter defense will fall off a bit. CSUN grad transfer Terrell Gomez is tiny and more of a scoring-minded player, and he comes from a team that basically ignored the defensive end. Jordan Schakel and Trey Pulliam have a little bit more size, but neither have the “lockdown” reputation that Feagin did, and reserve Adam Seiko is mostly a standstill shooting threat.
Mitchell is an excellent asset on the defensive glass, especially with his ball skills and ability to grab-and-go to start the break. If healthy, Aguek Arop is another well-built athlete who can pair with Mitchell in some position-less, switchable lineups. With Wetzell gone, the Aztecs are hoping for a bounce-back performance from Nathan Mensah, who can be a dominant force in the paint if he’s able to play. Unfortunately, he had a major medical scare in December, suffering a pulmonary embolism that forced him to sit the rest of the year. His 10.7% block rate would have ranked in the country’s top 25 had he played more minutes, and he was an absolute monster on the glass, as well. As an insurance policy, Dutcher brought in another power conference grad transfer in Maryland’s Joshua Tomaic, and if he makes anywhere close to the kind of leap that Wetzell did, the center position will be in good hands.
On the other end, Flynn was the story. The Aztecs often ran one time through a “wheel” continuity, and if that didn’t work, it turned into a Flynn ball screen, relying on his pull-up shooting, court vision, and ability to get to the rim to manufacture buckets. Without him, the offense clearly fell off:
Pulliam, his primary backup last year, struggled mightily in PnR situations last year (16th percentile), so a lot will be asked of the 5’8 Gomez, a dynamic offensive weapon who is one of the country’s truly elite perimeter shooters (273 career threes made at 43.1%). He lags far behind Flynn in terms of creation for others, though. Freshman Lamont Butler will get the chance to prove he deserves minutes at point if he can facilitate the attack, and his defensive instincts may help, as well.
Unrelated: fresh off getting through Breaking Bad, it’s hard to talk about Flynn too much without thinking of Walt Jr. arbitrarily deciding on Flynn as a horrendous nickname to go by for multiple seasons. It was grating every single time it was uttered, and I’m almost glad (Malachi) Flynn left college so that I won’t hear it as much.
Wetzell’s loss will also be significant, as he was the only true post threat on the team. Mensah was solid in limited chances prior to his health issues, but Tomaic simply does not bring the same kind of skill level. The offense may play through Mitchell more, both in mid-post situations and on the perimeter, because his combination of size and skill makes him an extremely tough matchup for most defenders. He displayed solid passing vision last year, and his wide frame belies just how easy of a shooter he is (39% from deep, 87% at the line). Freshman Che Evans adds another versatile wing type to the arsenal, though he may need to fight Arop for minutes. Schakel and Seiko are outstanding floor spacers, but that’s largely it.
Bottom Line: Mensah’s health is a huge swing factor for the defense: if he’s around to anchor the already-strong scheme, it takes some pressure off the perimeter defenders and allows SDSU to dominate the glass. Offensively, it will likely be a more balanced attack, and Dutcher will need Gomez to adapt to the higher competition quickly. Without Flynn’s two-way dominance, the Aztecs won’t reach the heights of 2019-20, but there’s still plenty of talent left to hope for another finish atop the Mountain West.
2. Utah State
Key Returners: Neemias Queta, Justin Bean, Brock Miller, Alphonso Anderson, Kuba Karwowski, Sean Bairstow
Key Losses: Sam Merrill, Diogo Brito, Abel Porter (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Marco Anthony (Virginia), Steven Ashworth, Zakhar Vedischev, Max Shulga, Szymon Zapala, Rollie Worster
Lineup:
Outlook: A heartfelt thank you to Utah State (and Sam Merrill specifically) for giving us one of the few lasting memories of the 2020 postseason. After being the heavy preseason favorite in the MWC, the Aggies hit some snags after the calendar turned to the new year, with injuries and cold shooting both frustrating Craig Smith’s squad and putting them squarely on the bubble entering the conference tournament. Merrill shoved this cold-blooded dagger into the Aztecs’ backs in the final, though:
This earned the Aggies a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament, one that definitely, 100% happened in my version of reality and you cannot convince me otherwise.
With Merrill and Diogo Brito graduating, plus Abel Porter skipping town to Columbus, Ohio, what remains in Logan is an unbalanced yet intriguing roster. The backcourt rotation is full of question marks: who will handle the ball? Who will create shots for others? Where does the offense turn late in the shot clock? Only Brock Miller has played meaningful minutes, and he’s always been a spot up shooter and/or a threat off screens. He’ll need to show an expanded game with the ball in his hands, and little-used Sean Bairstow may also see a larger role – if he can beat out newcomers Marco Anthony, Zakhar Vedischev, and Max Shulga for playing time. Anthony struggled to crack the rotation at Virginia, but he was still a Tony Bennett recruit, and the burly 225-pounder may end up playing as an unconventional point guard. The two foreign froshies (Russian and Ukrainian, respectively) add shooting and proven productivity at international events.
The only true point guard on the roster, though, is Steven Ashworth, who joins the team after a two-year LDS mission. Ashworth was a three-year starter for the famed Lone Peak High School (the Haws brothers, Eric Mika, others), and he could start immediately if he’s added strength in the past two years. Fellow newcomer Rollie Worster also has some creative verve to his game, but he faces a huge step up in competition. The whole group will be trying to replace Merrill by committee; Smith’s first two USU teams have been elite nationally in assist rate, largely thanks to the excellent off-ball motion he runs.
The “unbalanced” part of my label comes from the tremendous frontcourt, which really should be one of the best such units in the country. Neemias Queta should be fully healthy after dealing with a knee ailment for almost all of last season, and when he’s right, he’s a dominant paint presence on both ends of the floor. His rebound percentages and block rate all fell slightly from his freshman campaign, but he was still force:
Assist rate might seem like an odd piece to include for a center, but it’s indicative of the attention Queta receives as a roll man and post up threat. The Aggies ranked 36th nationally in percentage of shots taken at the rim, according to hoop-math, and Queta was a huge part of that. Smith has a ton of size behind him, as well: 7’2 Kuba Karwowski started seven games last year and 7’0 Trevin Dorius started two, while the freshman class includes a highly-regarded center in Polish big man Szymon Zapala.
That’s in addition to the two-headed power forward duo of Justin Bean and Alphonso Anderson, both of whom are legitimate weapons in their own right. Bean pairs well with Queta to make USU one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country (11th in defensive rebound rate last year, per KenPom), and his nonstop motor leads to some easy points via the offensive glass, as well. Anderson adds the element of perimeter shooting to the mix, and he’d certainly warrant more playing time on almost any other MWC squad. Given the wealth of frontcourt options, Anderson may see some brief spells on the perimeter, possibly even starting in a jumbo formation.
The Aggies’ defense should be outstanding this year, as the rebounding will continue to be elite and they’ll have plenty of size on the perimeter. Anthony is obviously well-versed in Virginia’s pack line, and Smith has run a similar man-to-man scheme in recent years. USU really took away transition opportunities last season, and the sagging off-ball defenders forced foes to hit jump shots to score. The perimeter has far more length than in past years, and obviously with Queta anchoring things at the rim, interior scoring will be a major chore.
Bottom Line: With so much frontcourt talent and depth, the floor is fairly stable/high for Utah State. The Aggies will clean the class on both ends, and Smith is one of the sharpest minds in coaching, so the schemes should remain strong, as well. The swing factor for the Aggies will be the perimeter rotation and whether any player (or players) can emerge as a true creative force with the ball in his/their hands. Miller, Anderson, and the freshmen should give the team enough shooting, so plenty of eyes will be on Ashworth and Anthony to see how they adapt to life in the Mountain West. I would normally adopt more of a “wait and see” approach with the offense after losing such a massive weapon in Sam Merrill, but Smith is too savvy schematically to let it fall off drastically.
3. Colorado State
Key Returners: Isaiah Stevens, David Roddy, Kendle Moore, Adam Thistlewood, Dischon Thomas, John Tonje, P.J. Byrd
Key Losses: Nico Carvacho, Kris Martin, Hyron Edwards
Key Newcomers: Ignas Sargiunas (Georgia), Isaiah Rivera, Jacob Jennisen
Lineup:
Outlook: Since we started writing team previews five years ago, few coaches have stood out as much as Niko Medved, who has turned programs around quickly at each stop on his coaching path. Sure, it took him a couple shaky seasons at Furman to really push the forward momentum, but he eventually had a near-top 100 team and handed the baton to Bob Richey to continue the program’s successful arc. At Drake, he won 17 games, which is fairly remarkable when considering the school had won 14 games combined in the two seasons before his arrival. And though the improvement hasn’t been immediate in Fort Collins, Medved has his squad set up for a huge year three. His teams get better, plain and simple:
Last year’s Rams played four underclassmen heavy minutes (plus two other freshman reserves), and Medved’s development track record indicates that a team with so much youth
The Rams will need to overcome the loss of Nico Carvacho, one of the best two-way rebounders in the sport. Carvacho actually ranks 19th in career rebounds since 1985-86, and the defensive glass was one of the Rams’ biggest strengths last year, but Carvacho’s other limitations as a rim protector and free throw shooter (49.7% on high volume as a senior) offer clear room for improvement. Plus, the on/off numbers suggest the team’s defensive rebound rate didn’t drop off much when Dischon Thomas took over the center spot, indicating the rest of the lineup was able to pick up the slack. Thomas isn’t a shot-blocker either, but he’s longer and bouncier than Carvacho, and Medved will explore whether freshman Jacob Jennissen or redshirt freshman James Moors can eat some minutes in the paint, as well.
Fortunately, Medved’s man-to-man scheme largely takes away opportunities at the rim, ranking 23rd nationally in that category, per hoop-math. The Rams build a shell, playing a more conservative style that forces perimeter jumpers, but unfortunately, foes buried those jumpers last year (34.2% from deep, ranking CSU’s defense 254th nationally, and 40.2% from mid-range, 334th). Better shooting luck should help, as should more maturity and growth from the incredibly young backcourt.
Alright, enough about the defense – the other end of the court is where this group really thrives. The perimeter trio of dynamic point guard Isaiah Stevens, big wing scorer Adam Thistlewood, and deadly shooter Kendle Moore complement each other well, and the combination of their collective pinpoint accuracy from deep gives CSU’s offense outstanding spacing. Medved does a tremendous job of putting them in places to succeed, particularly in the way he runs Stevens off stagger screens and handoffs:
Crisp offense has been a theme of Medved’s teams everywhere he’s gone (they always rank near the bottom nationally in isolation possessions), and he has no shortage of weapons with which to work.
Stevens was the conference freshman of the year (nearly unanimously), and he has all the makings of a budding star in the MWC. Thistlewood gives the team some size on the perimeter, which helps offset the diminutive Moore. Another youngster, John Tonje, shot 44.2% from downtown, and two newcomers should make an impact on the offensive end, as well: freshman Isaiah Rivera and Georgia transfer Ignas Sargiunas. Rivera turned down multiple power conference offers and can score in multiple ways, while Sargiunas is a skilled Lithuanian who never found a role under Tom Crean. The Rams will still be relatively young in the backcourt, but the wealth of talent and shooting is undeniable.
The ultimate difference-maker for this Rams squad is David Roddy, a burly bowling ball of a ‘tweener forward who can impact the game inside and out. He’s a matchup nightmare because of his absurd strength (he’s 250 pounds and mobile), and he drew extra defensive attention as a result, opening things up for the the team’s potent backcourt. On December 20th, the day before he entered the starting lineup, CSU’s offense ranked 144th nationally, per KenPom’s AdjOE; by the end of the season, it ranked 52nd. Just look at the on/off numbers from Hoop Lens:
Opponents just didn’t know what to do with him, because he could out-maneuver anyone strong enough to guard him or play bully ball against guards and wings. He obviously also made an impact on the defensive end, giving the Rams needed physicality as well as their best shot-blocker (7th in the MWC in block rate).
Bottom Line: This might be a year early to fully hop on board the Colorado State choo-choo train considering the roster has zero seniors, but being relatively young doesn’t necessarily mean Medved can’t win big. The offense is flush with talent, the Rams clearly improved when Roddy took on a bigger role, and the bevy of freshmen offer a clear path to improvement. The defense needs to tighten up, which puts a burden on Thomas and Roddy in the paint, but the offense could be so deadly that it won’t matter as much. The downside scenario would be if the team has an extended cold spell from the perimeter, but with so many different weapons, it’s hard to see that becoming a team-wide epidemic. Expect steady improvement from the Rams this year, and then a full welcome to the national stage in 2021-22.
4. Boise State
Key Returners: Derrick Alston, Abu Kigab, Rayj Dennis
Key Losses: Justinian Jessup, Roderick Williams, Alex Hobbs, Robin Jorch
Key Newcomers: Emmanuel Akot (Arizona), Marcus Shaver (Portland), Devonaire Doutrive (Arizona)***, Mladen Armus (ETSU), Naje Smith (JUCO), Lukas Milner (NJCAA), Kasean Pryor, Pavle Kuzmanovic
*** - has applied for a waiver to play first semester
Lineup:
Outlook: Over ten seasons in Boise, Leon Rice has become Mr. Consistency, with eight of his ten teams winning 20+ games and only two finishing below .500 in league play. He’s developed a fairly distinct style over that span, and with some dedicated work in the transfer portal over the past two seasons, he’ll have one of his most talented rosters with which to work. Another 20-win campaign seems likely, but Bronco fans may be craving more considering what this team looks like on paper.
The influx of talent this year is slightly reminiscent of last year’s New Mexico team, with multiple former top-100 recruits and power conference transfers making the switch to the MWC, complete with both teams having a member of the Doutrive family (New Mexico’s Vante Hendrix had changed his name from Devante Doutrive). Fortunately, this Boise State group appears to mostly lack the off-the-court question marks that New Mexico’s possessed, and Rice’s primary challenge will be molding so much talent into a cohesive unit.
Even with such a strong class of newcomers, the most crucial piece is still a veteran: Derrick Alston, a lanky forward whose pure shooting stroke fell off last year as he was asked to take on a much larger creation role in the offense. He’s tremendously skilled for his size (6’9), though, and he was asked to make a lot plays normally expected out of a guard. He should be more comfortable doing things like this in his second year as the clear go-to guy:
Even though not every shot went in, the Alston-led attack ranked 27th nationally in Dribble Handoff’s Shot Quality metric, an excellent mark.
The Broncos’ beefed-up offensive arsenal should also help Alston boost his iffy efficiency. Outside of Serbian freshman Pavle Kuzmanovic, who is a question mark at this point, the roster lacks a pure shooter on the level of the departed Justinian Jessup. Portland transfer Marcus Shaver and Arizona transfer Devonaire Doutrive (alluded to above) are both potent weapons from deep who can also attack off the bounce, adding an element that Jessup mostly lacked. While at Portland, Shaver actually suffered from the same issues Alston did – over-burdened as the primary weapon, his percentages suffered, but he should be much better with more talent around him.
Besides Alston, the other two veterans are sophomore point guard RayJ Dennis and forward Abu Kigab, the versatile Oregon transfer who became eligible in December. The two complemented each other (and Alston) well; Dennis’ presence meant that someone could take the creation burden off Alston, while Kigab’s inside-out game was a nightmare matchup for foes who had to put their best wing defender on Boise’s star. When the two played together, the offense saw a clear boost (screenshot only includes games that Kigab played in):
JUCO transfer Naje Smith adds another big wing talent, furthering the challenge for opposing defenses. The competition wasn’t elite, but it’s hard to ignore a 6’7 guy who averaged 23.3 PPG with shooting splits of 56.0%/38.3%/82.1%. Another Arizona transfer, Emmanuel Akot, has excellent pedigree (top-25 recruit, 5-star prospect in 2017), though he really struggled in Tucson.
The biggest concerns here are on the glass, where the departed RJ Williams was dominant on both ends of the court, and interior defense. ETSU transfer Mladen Armus should actually fill the rebounding void nicely, as the huge Serbian ranked in the top 75 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. He may also stabilize the team’s poor rim protection; Williams was undersized, and 6’11 Robin Jorch was not an intimidating presence whatsoever. JUCO transfer Lukas Milner can also help fill the void, though the late-blooming big man is taking a huge step up from Division II junior college competition.
Rice’s defensive philosophy helped somewhat, as the Broncos’ man-to-man packs the paint and hopes to take away any second shot opportunities. Armus could prove to be a unique weapon for Rice: in the last nine seasons, Boise State’s best finish in block rate is 293rd, indicating just how few true rim protectors have passed through the squad. The overall addition of size and athleticism on the wing should help, as well, and a rotation of Kigab, Akot, Alston, Smith, Doutrive, and Kuzmanovic has strong defensive potential.
Bottom Line: The Broncos’ combination of on-paper talent and solid, proven coaching with Rice at the helm makes them a tantalizing squad this year. I slotted a “wild card/upside” team ahead of them in Colorado State, plus a similarly well-coached team in Utah State, but the boys from Boise could absolutely end up being the best team in the MWC if Alston sees a jump in efficiency and the bevy of transfer pieces fit together properly. Last year’s defense benefited from some positive shooting luck – especially in conference play, where foes made just 28.6% from deep – but as long as the Broncos stick to Rice’s tenets on both ends of the floor, this should be a Tier 1 MWC team with a chance to win the league.
5. UNLV
Key Returners: Bryce Hamilton, Cheikh Mbacke Diong, Marvin Coleman
Key Losses: Amauri Hardy (transfer), Donnie Tillman (transfer), Elijah Mitrou-Long, Nick Blair
Key Newcomers: David Jenkins (South Dakota State), Moses Wood (Tulane), Caleb Grill (Iowa St.), Nick Blake, Jhaylon Martinez, Edoardo Del Cadia (JUCO), Nick Fleming (JUCO), Isaac Lindsey, Donovan Yap
Lineup:
Outlook: Very little was expected of UNLV in TJ Otzelberger’s first year. The Rebels were ranked 165th at KenPom.com to begin the season, and they were picked 7th in the preseason MWC poll (8th at 3MW). Albeit against a tough schedule, a 4-8 start seemed to affirm all of the concerns, especially as the team’s defense floundered badly. But Otzelberger was figuring things out, tweaking the team’s style (slow things down) and rotation (more Bryce Hamilton) and becoming more comfortable in his new role. UNLV ended up tied for second in the Mountain West at 12-6, culminating in a massive win at undefeated San Diego State in late February that flashed the potential of what this program can be under Coach Otz.
The defensive renaissance was something to behold, as UNLV fell as far as 235th in KenPom’s AdjDE before climbing 102 spots to 133rd by the end of the year. Otzelberger had his team pack the paint, taking away easy shots via both the scheme and with the active Cheikh Mbacke Diong serving as warden of the bucket. This approach did make the Rebels suspect to hot outside shooting at times, but it also minimized the easy baskets they allowed. Diong was an anchor on the glass, and the defense was clearly better with him on the floor, surrendering just 0.92 PPP versus 1.05 PPP without him. Where Diong and the defense struggled, though, was committing an over-abundance of fouls, which was very much a departure from Otzelberger’s South Dakota State squads:
The rest of the frontcourt rotation turns over, so perhaps inserting some new blood will limit the issue. JUCO transfer Edoardo Del Cadia and freshman Jhaylon Martinez provide depth, but they’re different players than Diong, geared more towards interior scoring than rim protection.
Marvin Coleman forced his way into a larger role last year primarily due to his defense, and the former walk-on should be the team’s stopper on the perimeter. Hamilton has outstanding physical tools as a wing defender, but he’s far more notable as a go-to bucket-getter on the other end.
The offensive side of the ball is where the Rebels could really shine this year, especially with two top-shelf weapons in Hamilton and South Dakota State transfer David Jenkins. After struggling to find his place in the rotation through the season’s first two months, Hamilton exploded in Mountain West play:
He’s a devastating three-level scorer, but he’s most deadly when getting downhill towards his left hand, and his strength made him extremely difficult for foes to contain. Jenkins, meanwhile, is a human fireball from the perimeter, going 112/245 (45.7%) from downtown as a sophomore. He obviously has a high degree of comfort with Otzelberger as well, having followed him from Brookings, and he should quickly form a petrifying pair alongside Hamilton.
Jenkins’ shooting will be crucial for a roster that returns very little of it, and fellow newcomers Moses Wood, Nicquel Blake, Caleb Grill, and Isaac Lindsey will also have every opportunity to carve out key roles for the same reason. Wood, a Tulane transfer, profiles well as a floor-spacing four-man who can punish foes who send too much help to UNLV’s stars. Plus, Diong makes up for his shortcomings defensively and on the glass. Blake is a near-lock to get in the rotation, a silky-smooth lefty shooter who is mostly just lacking strength on his wiry frame. Grill initially committed to Otzelberger before heading to the Big 12 when his coach went west, and he may be a more appropriate level now after struggling mightily in his Iowa State debut. Lindsey is another pure gunner, but he’s stepping way up in competition from small-town Wisconsin, so he may not immediately satisfy the defensive prerequisites. The Rebels’ best offense may well be letting Hamilton and Jenkins attack their defenders in isolation, forcing opponents to help and rotate against a four-out setup.
The Rebels were also dominant on the offensive glass, once again largely thanks to one-man wrecking crew Diong. Del Cadia and Martinez know how to use their bodies to get after it on the glass, so this aspect of the attack should not see much of a drop-off when the Senegalese big man gets a breather.
Bottom Line: Otzelberger’s willingness to tweak some of his stylistic preferences while taking over a different kind of roster bodes well for his potential success in Sin City. With a couple of all-conference-caliber scorers in Hamilton and Jenkins, the Rebels’ offensive ceiling is high, and the return of Mbacke Diong in the paint solidifies the glass and the interior defense. There are a lot of new pieces here, but if Otzelberger can thread them all together, UNLV could be high rolling in the MWC once again.
Tier 2
6. Nevada
Key Returners: Zane Meeks, Robby Robinon, K.J. Hymes
Key Losses: Jalen Harris (pro), Jazz Johnson, Lindsey Drew, Nisre Zouzoua, Johncarlos Reyes
Key Newcomers: Desmond Cambridge (Brown), Grant Sherfield (Wichita St.), Warren Washington (Oregon St.), Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster, DeAndre Henry, Alem Huseinovic
Lineup:
Outlook: Few teams in the entire country were more leveraged on a single NBA Draft decision than Nevada was with Jalen Harris. He was the team’s undisputed alpha on the offensive end, endlessly creating opportunities for himself and others, and his return would have nearly guaranteed the Wolf Pack of a potent attack. It seemed that decision might drag on towards the deadline, but on May 21st, Harris abruptly opted to forego his senior year, drastically altering the potential of this year’s Nevada squad.
Harris was the team’s maestro, keying the offense in both its downhill transition onslaught and once settled in the half court. Nevada ranked 28th nationally in percentage of plays ending with a pick-and-roll ball-handler, and Harris was an enormous reason for that (as was Lindsey Drew). The Wolf Pack return essentially zero backcourt production, which means a huge burden will fall on talented Brown transfer Desmond Cambridge. The former Ivy player is a pure scorer, capable of attacking at all three levels, and he’s a tremendous vertical athlete. Unfortunately, he was a disaster, efficiency-wise, as a sophomore in a massive role for Brown, and he is nowhere near the creator for others that Harris was.
It’s been a tumultuous couple weeks in the Nevada backcourt, as touted freshman Je’Lani Clark was removed from the roster in mid-September after not enrolling classes; the school offered no further comment. That made the NCAA’s decision to “grant” Wichita State transfer Grant Sherfield a waiver to play right away absolutely crucial. Sherfield gives the Wolf Pack a point guard with some reps under his belt, and he’ll allow Cambridge to mostly remain off the ball. Kane Milling got some minutes last year, but he was largely a standstill spot up threat – and an inefficient one at that, so international freshmen Daniel Foster and Alem Huseinovic will challenge for minutes immediately.
Oddly, the strength and depth of this roster is in the frontcourt. Steve Alford’s offenses do not emphasize interior scoring, be it via the post or offensive rebounding, but a stylistic shift may need to be made to feed bigs like Zane Meeks, K.J. Hymes, and Oregon State transfer Warren Washington. Meeks flashed a lot of potential as an inside-out threat, while Hymes and Washington are more conventional bigs. None of this group has any experience in a featured role, though, so Alford may stick with what he’s comfortable doing (emphasizing guards Sherfield and Cambridge). Robby Robinson also returns after starting every game last season, but he respectfully averts his eyes from the basket and steadfastly refuses to shoot, singularly focusing on cleaning the glass instead.
Defensively, Alford packs things in with a conservative man-to-man, taking away the rim while allowing a bevy of perimeter jumpers over the top. In that sense, the Wolf Pack may have been a bit lucky last year, finishing 333rd in defensive 3PA rate but 22nd in defensive 3P%, as foes threw up brick after brick. Some regression here could be damaging to the already vulnerable defense.
Cambridge should be an asset on this end with his bounce; he nearly led the Ivy League in block rate despite standing just 6’4. Washington and Hymes form a nice shot-blocking duo at center, and the entire frontcourt should do well on the boards (a staple of Alford teams). Again, the young guards will be tested, although the compact scheme will help if they’re struggling to keep opposing guards in front.
Bottom Line: Alford has had seven straight teams (last year + all six at UCLA) where the offense was better than the defense, but that trend may revert back to his best New Mexico squads, which thrived on the defensive end. Only Cambridge is a natural scorer, and with a step up in competition and a shaky weapons around him, his shooting percentages could get ugly. If the young big men ramp up their activity level and provide some interior pop, that could lift the ceiling a bit, and Sherfield’s presence at point guard should hopefully provide a steadying influence. The Wolf Pack are probably too limited in the shooting and creation departments to climb too far up the standings, though.
7. Fresno St.
Key Returners: Orlando Robinson, Anthony Holland, Jordan Campbell
Key Losses: Nate Grimes, New Williams, Jarred Hyder (transfer), Niven Hart (pro), Noah Blackwell, Aguir Agau (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Devin Gage (DePaul), Braxton Meah, Leonardo Colimerio, Kyle Harding (JUCO), Destin Whitaker, Deon Stroud (UTEP)***, Isaiah Hill (Tulsa)***, Junior Ballard (Cal Poly)***
*** - needs waiver to play right away
Lineup:
Outlook: After an incredibly promising first season as the boss in Fresno, Justin Hutson lost a battle to the injury bug in his second season, watching helplessly as nearly every player on the roster went in and out of the lineup with a variety of ailments. The Bulldogs were forced to use nine different starting lineups in their first 15 games, and they never really found enough of a rhythm or identity to avoid what became a lost season. Hutson was forced to slam the brakes (went from 157th to 338th in tempo), and four freshmen earned huge minutes for a team in desperate need of players. Though the roster loses several key pieces to graduation or transfer, Hutson and his squad have a shot at a bounce-back campaign if the team can find some continuity during the season and avoid such a constant stream of injuries.
Offensively, the Bulldogs’ biggest issue was a complete inability to get easy baskets. Hutson let his squad fire away from deep, ranking 7th nationally in 3PA rate, but that ended up being at the expense of getting to the rim. The Bulldogs also had a horrendous transition attack, both in terms of frequency and efficiency, and those two key weaknesses took away routes to easy points:
The collapse in transition effectiveness may have been symptomatic of the team’s youth and the injury issues constantly disrupting the backcourt; whatever it was, the Bulldogs need to find a way to fix it entering this year. Adding experienced guards like Devin Gage, Isaiah Hill, Junior Ballard, and Deon Stroud should boost the backcourt efficiency, although the latter three will all need waivers to play right away. Stroud is from Fresno, so his case seems highly promising, while the other two still seem likely given how COVID has impacted the prevalence of waivers.
The wild card for the Bulldogs is Jordan Campbell, an Oregon State transfer who looked absolutely horrible in limited minutes last January, but he has the talent to make an impact in the MWC if he figures things out. JUCO transfer Kyle Harding’s minutes will depend on the waivers and whether Campbell can prove he deserves minutes.
As for getting to the rim, the offense should continue to feed skilled sophomore big man Orlando Robinson, a high-energy bruiser who gets after it on the glass and uses his frame to draw frequent contact. His ability to put the ball on the floor makes him a unique weapon at his size (6’10, 235 pounds), as well:
He’s also an anchor on defense, giving the Bulldogs a true presence at the rim. He’ll have to help pick up the slack on the glass without Nate Grimes dominating that realm, and sophomore wing Anthony Holland was quietly effective in that area, as well. Freshman Braxton Meah, a lanky 7-footer, adds a high-upside option off the bench, although he appears to be a bit raw at this point, while Leo Colimerio could be a sneaky-effective piece after playing a mostly supporting role for an absurdly talented Wasatch Academy team last season. He’s a lanky wing/forward ‘tweener whose athleticism should play well in transition.
Hutson’s scheme was almost a mirror of the offense: take away the rim, force foes to shoot over the top. This was another area impacted by the injuries: the Bulldogs pressured far less than in 2018-19 (337th in turnover rate after finishing 106th in that category a year ago), limiting fouls to try and keep the healthy players on the court. With a full contingent of healthy bodies, expect Hutson to extend his defense again, where players like Gage and Hill will thrive.
As if the horrific streak of poor health wasn’t bad enough luck, opponents were often hot against Fresno, shooting 36.3% from deep (ranking Fresno’s defense 311th) – not to mention 75.8% from the free throw line (345th). The Bulldogs don’t have much control over this, so percentages more in line with the national average (or better!) could be critical in helping the defense recover from its poor performance last year.
Bottom Line: After such a hard luck year, Fresno feels like a team destined to creep back up the Mountain West standings. The Bulldogs will still be quite young, likely starting three sophomores, and incorporating the backcourt transfers may take some time. The added depth will allow the defense to be more aggressive, as well, and Hutson is widely regarded as a sharp coaching mind who can put everything together. Fresno falls short of cracking the top tier for me, but with a few beneficial breaks, the Bulldogs could sneak up there as the season progresses.
8. New Mexico
Key Returners: Makuach Maluach, Keith McGee, Kurt Wegscheider
Key Losses: JaQuan Lyle, Corey Manigault, Vance Jackson (grad transfer), Zane Martin (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jeremiah Francis (UNC), Valdir Manuel (JUCO), Saquan Singleton (JUCO), Rodgerick Brown (JUCO), Javonte Johnson, Bayron Matos, Assane Ndiaye (JUCO), Nolan Dorsey, Isaiah Marin
Lineup:
Outlook: Last year’s New Mexico roster was a ticking time bomb of incendiary chemistry issues, and as the calendar turned to 2020, that bomb went off. The Lobos started out 15-3 overall, 4-1 in the Mountain West, but the edges were fraying beneath the surface. Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell, two of the major maturity question marks, were suspended indefinitely on January 3rd, and although Bragg returned for two games before getting booted for a DWI, that was the beginning of the end for New Mexico. The Lobos then lost 11 of their final 15 games, finishing just 7-11 in the MWC, with other curious events (Vante Hendrix getting sent home before the team’s MWC tourney loss, JaQuan Lyle hosting a party at an AirBnB that led to a shooting) continuing to display the dysfunction that ruined the team on the court.
All four of those guys are now gone, possibly releasing the incredible locker room tension that the Lobos had to deal with and giving them a chance to breath some fresh air while focusing on basketball. This roster is undoubtedly less talented than last year’s, but the potential for a more cohesive team – and thus more successful – definitely exists.
Coach Paul Weir’s biggest project will be constructing a competent defense out of a huge group of newcomers, something he has yet to do through three years in Albuquerque. Last year’s team ranked a dismal 307th in shot quality, per Dribble Handoff, as foes feasted from deep and at the rim. To Weir’s credit, he’s tried all kind of different approaches during his tenure, mixing in plenty of different zone and press looks through the years, though all were met with similar levels of mediocrity:
The interior defense may be a problem again, although the addition of well-traveled JUCO big man Valdir Manuel could be a difference-maker. Immensely talented, Manuel completely dominated inferior JUCO competition, but he has committed to something like 12 Division I schools and is dangerously close to the volatile presences that undercut last year’s team. Assane Ndiaye is the only other true center, and he barely saw the floor during his previous stop at Kilgore College. That means Weir should lean into the team’s strength: a bevy of wings/guards that can switch and be mostly interchangeable, and it would not be shocking to see them ramp up the full court pressure again.
Makuach Maluach is the roster’s lone true mainstay, and he should hit 100 career starts at UNM by the time this season ends. At 6’7 with some perimeter skill, he represents the Lobos’ positional versatility, and JUCO transfers Saquan Singleton and Rod Brown add to that identity. Both were double-digit scorers at very strong programs last year (Hutchinson and undefeated Pearl River, respectively), but their greatest appeal may be on the defensive end as athletic pieces that fit into Weir’s approach. On the perimeter, the entire rotation should be 6’3 or taller outside of UNC transfer Jeremiah Francis.
If healthy, Francis is a crucial addition to the offense, a high-upside play who has battled debilitating knee injuries for three years now. The Lobos lost go-to-guy Zane Martin back to his old school, Towson, late in the offseason, further underscoring just how important Francis’ ball-handling and creation will be.
The other worry here will be spacing. Only Keith McGee and Maluach will truly worry defenses on the perimeter, as Martin and Francis both struggled mightily from distance last season, and neither Singleton nor Brown made a single triple in their JUCO tenures. Weir’s offenses consistently rank highly in terms of isolation possessions, but those may be short-circuited before they start if opponents can just plant bodies in the paint without fear of getting punished from outside. Freshman Javonte Johnson should quickly earn playing time thanks to his effortless stroke, and he fits the versatile defensive profile, as well. Fellow freshmen Isaiah Marin and Nolan Dorsey are terrific passers, and they could end up battling for a starting job if Francis’ knee issues flare up.
Bottom Line: The outlook for this year’s New Mexico squad is nearly opposite of last year’s: following the exodus of troubled talent, this year’s team will need to be a collective unit that defends with ferocity and sends waves of athletes at the rim. Solving the team’s defensive rebounding and rim protection questions will be a challenge unless Manuel fully delivers on his promise, but with so many multi-positional wings and forwards, perhaps the Lobos can compensate for that with speed and depth. Without the drama of last year’s off-the-court theatrics, perhaps this scrappier unit can find a way to climb the standings and give The Pit something to cheer about down the stretch of the MWC campaign.
9. Wyoming
Key Returners: Hunter Maldonado, Hunter Thompson, Kwane Marble II, Kenny Foster
Key Losses: Jake Hendricks, AJ Banks, Trevon Taylor (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Marcus Williams, Drake Jeffries (JUCO), Drew LaMont (JUCO), Xavier DuSell, Jeremiah Oden, Eoin Nelson (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: A new era begins in Laramie this offseason, as the administration fired Allen Edwards following the two worst seasons that the program has had, KenPom rating-wise, in the past 24 years. Edwards deserved a pass for the disastrous 2018-19 campaign in which Wyoming was ravaged by one of the most absurd injury waves I’ve ever seen, but following that up by having a worse MWC record (2-16 vs 4-14) was inexcusable. The Cowboys reached down across the Colorado border to pluck Jeff Linder from his post at Northern Colorado, where he had built the Bears into a true Big Sky powerhouse, going 69-32 (41-17) over the last three years and cracking the KenPom top 100 this past year.
Linder’s teams almost always have a leg up on the opponent by virtue of his devout attention to shot selection detail. Perhaps no one in the country gains such an advantage simply via shot distribution: during his time at Northern Colorado, the Bears took almost zero mid-range jumpers, while the defense forced a huge share of them and took away the three-point line. Last year, UNC ranked among the nation’s elite in the disparity of mid-range jumpers taken versus three-pointers as compared to their opponents:
That means that even before considering the quality of shooters on the team, Wyoming will have an edge in “expected value” of shots, and in the competitive world of college hoops, an advantage like that can raise the floor for a struggling Cowboy program.
Shooting will be a question mark with this team, though, especially in the backcourt. The frontcourt, featuring the similarly-named Hunter Maldonado and Hunter Thompson (aka “Fear and Loathing”), includes a couple players that can step out and hit a jumper if left alone, and although neither is a high-efficiency threat, it should help open up the floor. The two returning guards, Kwane Marble and Kenny Foster, both flashed some potential as freshmen, but Foster’s ice-cold perimeter stroke (23.2% on 82 attempts) may not fit well into Linder’s attack. That opens the door for two JUCO newcomers, Drake Jeffries and Drew LaMont, both of whom made over 80 triples and shot over 40% for strong squads in 2019-20.
To create these shots, Linder’s offenses have been heavily reliant on the abilities of one mega high-usage guard running copious pick-and-rolls, be that Andre Spight, Jordan Davis, or Jonah Radebaugh. There’s no obvious candidate to fill that role at Wyoming, though Marble’s combination of size and vision is intriguing, at the very least. It’s a big ask for a freshman, but incoming recruit Marcus Williams oozes potential and could end up playing a massive role as a freshman. He initially committed to Linder at UNC and followed him to Wyoming, so the system clearly appeals to him, and Linder is high on him:
“Marcus's ability to make reads – especially in ball-screen situations and to play-make for others is elite. Players that make life easier for everyone else on the floor are hard to come by and Marcus does that at a high level.”
Another member of the recruiting class, Xavier DuSell, also followed Linder from UNC to Wyoming, and he should earn minutes right away on the wing after playing a supporting role for an elite Arizona high school program last year (Compass Prep).
Last year’s Cowboys played through Maldonado, whose versatility allowed him to rank in the top 100 nationally in both usage and assist rate, and Linder is smart enough to tweak his approach to the strengths of his roster. One tenet that should carry over from Edwards’ regime is a disregard for the offensive glass, even though this Cowboy roster has some size (Maldonado, Thompson, JUCO transfer Eoin Nelson, freshman Jeremiah Oden).
As mentioned, Linder’s teams simply do not give up open threes, leading the country in defensive 3PA rate in two of the past three seasons. The Bears also ranked 1st in defensive assist rate in those years, evidencing the way they get up into passing lanes and force foes to make plays one-on-one, either in isolation or (especially) in the post. His teams dare opponents to score against single coverage on the block, betting that those shots will be inefficient enough to place a firm cap the offense’s ceiling. Thompson and Nelson aren’t true rim protectors, but their size should hold up well enough on the block.
One other key defensive note: UNC opponents ranked dead last in the country in possessions finished in transition, according to Synergy. Similar to forcing mid-range jumpers, this takes away high-value opportunities for the offense, meaning opponents have to score against set defenses in the half court.
Bottom Line: The ceiling of this team depends on whether the offense shows enough dynamism to score efficiently, which was a major problem in Edwards’ last two years (ranked 322nd and 325th in AdjOE the last two years). Linder’s emphasis on shot selection will certainly help, but the onus ultimately falls on the players and whether they can make shots. Overall, the rising floor via Linder’s addition elevates Wyoming a tier, but upgrading the talent enough to climb the standings may take a year or two (as it did for Linder at UNC).
Tier 3
10. Air Force
Key Returners: AJ Walker, Christopher Joyce, Keaton Van Soelen, Ameka Akaya, Mason Taylor, Carter Murphy, Abe Kinrade
Key Losses: Lavelle Scottie, Ryan Swan, Sid Tomes, Caleb Morris
Key Newcomers: N/A
Lineup:
Outlook: Dave Pilipovich’s tenure all seemed to lead up to last year, bringing back essentially the entire roster from a middle-of-the-pack MWC team in 2018-19. The resulting 12-20 (5-13) fiasco doomed Pilipovich, prompting the administration to pull an East Carolina and bring back a coach from the program’s not-so-recent past (that’s a deep cut Joe Dooley reference, for those keeping score at home). Joe Scott returns to Air Force 15 years after he left to take over at Princeton, his alma mater, and the hope that his unmistakable style on both ends of the court can help recreate the success he had in his final year in Colorado Springs (22-7 record, earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament).
Scott’s biggest challenge will be fixing the sieve of a defense. Pilipovich packed things in due to his team’s relative lack of size and athleticism, daring opponents to shoot over the top and hoping to induce enough misses to stay afloat. Unfortunately, foes did not cooperate, sinking a blistering 37.9% from deep on the 3rd-highest attempt rate in the country. Many of those shots were open, as well, and the Falcons’ defense ranked 347th nationally in defensive shot quality, per Dribble Handoff.
With Scott’s return, he’ll once again unleash his funky matchup zones, a challenge for opponents in how they morph to the offense’s alignment and extend past the three-point line. Taking away the arc is traditionally not a zone tenet, but Scott’s unique scheme consistently ranked highly in defensive 3PA rate. The roster turns over almost completely, with only one starter (point guard AJ Walker) and a cuple other rotation pieces returning, so Scott has a relatively blank slate with which to work. The Falcons have the typically huge roster that always comes with military academies, including a staggering 18 freshmen (!!!) according to Verbal Commits, so the competition for minutes should be fierce.
The Air Force’s enlistment requirements limit the amount of size the team can have, often leading to 6’7 and 6’8 forwards manning the frontcourt. The freshman class actually adds some real size – 6’11 Ryan Corner, 6’10 Lucas Moerman, 6’9 Thomas Hall – although it’s debatable on whether they’ll see the floor right away. Abe Kinrade and Keaton Van Soelen each started games last year, and Ameka Akaya got onto the fringes of the rotation later in the season, but everything is up for grabs.
As mentioned, his offense has a clear identity, as well. Being a former Princeton point guard and a student of Pete Carril, Scott runs the Princeton offense, heavy on back door cuts, perimeter shooting, and skilled passing up and down the lineup. Not everyone reads KenPom pages like it’s the Harry Potter series, but suffice it to say this is as distinctive as it gets:
The snail’s pace, deadly and voluminous shooting, disregard for offensive rebounding, high assist rates – it’s all reflective of a system heavily leveraged on timing and instinctual movement, reading the defense and reacting to take advantage of whatever it gives. That could be tough to install with limited offseason practice time, although it does help that Pilipovich ran a similar scheme.
Walker’s return was enormous for keeping the Falcons a tier above San Jose State. Sitting on the threshold of committing to the service post-college (cadets can leave after their second year with no penalty), he entered the transfer portal and received plenty of attention, but he ultimately decided to remain in Colorado Springs. He gives the offense a dynamic option late in the shot clock if Air Force needs to create something, and his perimeter shooting (40.7% last year) and court vision make him a great fit for the Princeton system, as well. Chris Joyce is another experienced piece, a skilled wing who fits the bill as a shooter, and he should elevate to the starting lineup in his final campaign.
The rest of the production is a mystery. Akaya was a prolific scorer in his extremely limited minutes, and Kinrade and Van Soelen have the skillsets to succeed under Scott’s regime, but they’re all still largely unproven. Sophomore Carter Murphy was a 3-star recruit last year, and though the 6’4 guard couldn’t crack the veteran rotation last year, he should get a chance to break out this season with so many shots coming available, and classmate Mason Taylor at least got his feet wet in 21 games. The freshman class should provide a contributor or two, as well, with Joseph Octave being the most highly-regarded of that group. The California native was a prolific high school scorer and has a smooth shooting stroke, which could be a boost for an offense that needs weapons.
Bottom Line: This is season is mostly about the installation of Joe Scott’s system. Defensive performance has been quite volatile in his history, so that will likely be the swing factor on whether this season is simply “not good” versus “a complete disaster.” Walker gives them a possible all-conference player, at the very least, and the clearly defined offensive attack should be a curveball for foes more accustomed to ball screen-heavy schemes. Ultimately, the loss of so much productivity leaves too many question marks to feel comfortable putting AFA any higher than this.
11. San Jose St.
Key Returners: Seneca Knight, Richard Washington, Omari Moore, Ralph Agee, Sam Japhet-Mathias
Key Losses: Brae Ivey, Christian Anigwe (transfer), Zach Chappell (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jalen Dalcourt (JUCO), Sebastian Mendoza, Chase Courtney, Hugo Clarkin, Nate Lacewell, Michael Ofoegbu Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook: I promise to not rush through this preview, even though it bums me out to talk about a program that’s completely out of its depth in the Mountain West. That’s not just on the court – per 3MW’s analysis of national basketball budgets, San Jose State is at the second-largest financial disadvantage in the country, relative to the conference’s median spending. It’s hard to expect much of a team that is limited in such a fundamental way, but the Spartans’ recent dismal results have lagged behind even the most tepid of prognostications. Entering his fourth year at the helm, Jean Prioleau is a disastrous 15-77 overall (5-49 in the MWC), earning this slot alone in a tier below all of the rest.
Transfers have hurt quite a bit, with some of the most productive players consistently moving on every year of Prioleau’s tenure. That continued this year, with two of the top four returning scorers vanishing into the portal, leaving the Spartans to once again restructure a rotation that should have only graduated one piece.
Thankfully, the team’s two beacons of light are back to at least provide some semblance of hope. Seneca Knight saw the typical “freshman-to-sophomore leap” and scoffed, instead launching himself from a nondescript rookie campaign into all-conference consideration despite playing for the league’s notorious cellar-dweller. He became the offense’s trigger-man despite being a 6’6 wing, running a ton of pick-and-roll and consistently pushing the pace in transition, where his grab-and-go abilities helped the Spartans get easier buckets in transition – a much-needed boost for an anemic half court attack:
Fellow 6’6 wing Richard Washington was the team’s best perimeter threat, and his role increased as the year went on, scoring in double-figures in eight of the final 11 games after doing so just six times in the first 20 contests.
Those two highlight the two key routes to offense for last year’s squad: spread pick-and-rolls and spot up shooting. Knight will dominate the ball in these settings, but expect Omari Moore, Kaison Hammonds, and JUCO transfer Jalen Dalcourt to see time with the ball in their hands, as well. Moore flashed some potential last year as a slasher, both in transition and as a catch-and-go threat on the perimeter, and Hammonds and Dalcourt give the team more shooting with which to space the floor. SJSU sorely lacks interior scoring, which makes them much easier to defend.
Speaking of which, the paint was a huge problem for the Spartans on the defensive end. Foes took 41.0% of their shots at the rim, a high rate to start with, and they shot 63.0% on those attempts, ranking SJSU’s defense 295th nationally (numbers per hoop-math). Sam Japhet-Mathias left the team in the offseason, but the former Wake Forest transfer was nearly useless as a rim protector and lacked mobility in a major way; unfortunately, Eduardo Lane isn’t much better. Ralph Agee is probably the team’s best pound-for-pound interior defender, but he’s undersized to play center. The guards also struggled to keep drivers in front, and even Prioleau’s frequent attempts to go zone (nearly half of possessions, per Synergy) couldn’t stop teams from getting inside.
The other issue was the lay-up line that was SJSU’s attempt at transition defense. Opponents took 27.1% of their initial shots in transition, per hoop-math, the 15th-highest rate in the country. That led to too many easy buckets, undermining any real chance at a competitive unit. Both of these factors – the transition defense and the inability to stop teams from getting to the rim – led to SJSU ranking 351st in Dribble Handoff’s Shot Quality metric, indicating just how easy things often were for Spartan foes.
Bottom Line: Given the resource limitations, SJSU is perpetually in a difficult position while competing against the rest of the Mountain West. This team at least has some promising pieces to lean on offensively, but the lack of any true paint presence on either end of the floor has proven to be a crippling flaw. Creeping ahead of Air Force is a conceivable goal (if not likely), but climbing much higher will be a tall task for the Spartans.