-Matt Cox
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Writer’s note: Parsing out the ‘Tiers’ is virtually impossible. For example, drawing a line in the sand between Davidson and UMass is splitting hairs, but that’s the closest place to a natural cutoff within the top-11 teams. Put differently, teams 9-11 all have top-5 upside in my opinion, but they’re more likely to finish near the middle of the pack, relative to the Tier 1 squads.
Player of the Year: Jalen Crutcher, Sr., Dayton
Coach of the Year: Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure
Newcomer of the Year: Malik Martin, Jr., Rhode Island
Freshman of the Year: Javohn Garcia, Massachusetts
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Richmond
See full preview here: #32 in our Top-40 countdown
2. St. Bonaventure
Key Returners: Kyle Lofton, Jaren English, Dominick Welch, Osun Osunniyi, Justin Winston, Alejandro Vasquez
Key Losses: Amadi Ikpeze, Bobby Planutis
Key Newcomers: Quintin Metcalf, Eddie Creal, Jalen Shaw
Lineup:
Outlook: Like a hound on a long hunt, I’ve been sniffing out this impending Bonnie breakthrough since last season. In that piece, I waxed poetic over a slew of reasons for why I’ll be banging the Bonnie drum this season, but I put Osun Osunniyi front and center on that list.
For as much as I love Osunniyi, the correct pronunciation of his name escapes me far too often – but thanks to @Jake_EZ’s guidance (‘Oh-Shoon, Oh-Shoon-E-Yee’), I’m progressing nicely…
It took all of 10 minutes into the 2020 season for Bonnie fans to curl up in the fetal position. Osunniyi suffered a bone bruise in the opener against Ohio, a malfunction that sidelined the big man for four games. The Bonnies came out the other side in a 1-4 hole – though, that win against Rutgers sans Osunniyi was mighty impressive. Once revived, Osunniyi hit the ground running. He posted two straight double doubles in his first two games back, and just like that, Bona was off to the races.
Then, the basketball Gods cursed the Bonnies again. A 4-0 A-10 start was interrupted by a second Osunniyi set back, this time a concussion, which coincided with three losses against the league’s heavy hitters (VCU, Dayton and Rhode Island). The see-saw season sprung upward, again, after Osun’s second return the ring, which powered a five-game win streak and rapid climb up the standings.
In summary, Bona’s roller coaster season was a byproduct of Osun’s presence on the floor. When he plays, Osun’s octopus arms serve as a Flex Seal cover-up to any and all defensive cracks on the perimeter.
You won’t find another prognosticator as bullish on the 2021 Bonnies as this guy, but I’ll be the first to abandon ship if Osun misses extended time. He’s a star in his role offensively and a bonafide gamechanger defensively. In case of emergency, Schmidt plucked a shot-blocking specialist in 6’10 Jalen Shaw (a Triton Community College product who ranked 11th in block shots among all JUCO qualifiers last year) for insurance, but he’s not in the same stratosphere at Osunniyi.
All that said, the Bonnies’ defensive lapses last year (12th in the A-10 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom) aren’t solely attributable to Osunniyi’s absences. Schmidt’s affinity for mixing up defenses on the fly led to miscommunication-related breakdowns, a common pitfall of young and inexperienced teams. Remember, Osun’s usually lurking in the lane to cover up these mistakes. Schmidt has to tighten up the screws defensively, otherwise it won’t matter how exciting the offense is – but oh what a joy it will be.
Kyle Lofton is the Bonnies’ quarterback, a poised operator with a lethal float game. A true dual-threat maestro, Lofton can fill it up or spray it around, depending on what the defense gives him. His go to move is a savvy hesitation-and-go, which allows him to slither by his defender to create an odd man advantage. Lofton needs to improve his finishing touch around the rim, as he sometimes settles for acrobatic layups that aren’t necessary. With his size, he’d be better served embracing contact and seeking trips to the charity stripe (he’s a career 82% free throw shooter), rather than force tough shots over long limbs – Bonnie fans fondly remember Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley’s knack for drawing the whistle.
Flanking Lofton on opposite wings will be Dominick Welch and Jaren English. Their respective styles form a nice yin and yang compliment, the burlier English as the driver and the leaner Welch as the shooter. That’s not to say both can’t do the other, but their shooting splits indicate a clear driving or shooting preference. Rising sophomore Alejandro Vasquez likely resumes his role as reserve rescuer, a combustible combo guard who can catch fire in a hurry. Vasquez was the Bonnies’ savior in the win over Rutgers last season, pouring in 20 points to pace an Osunniyi-less Bona bunch over the Scarlet Knights. That leaves little room for Miami Ohio transfer Jalen Adaway and JUCO star Eddie Creal to make a splash, but these seasoned newcomers are qualified to contribute right away, as needed.
On this guard-heavy roster, 6’8 forward Justin Winston might be the X-factor this year. In Schmidt’s offense, forwards are often pulled out to the perimeter, where they set a flurry of screens and initiate ball-screen and dribble handoff action. Winston’s skill set jives well with this structure. The former 3-star prospect is an athletic triple-threat, blessed with long strides, a confident handle and a nice shooting stroke. Winston exploded in a few games last year but had his share of no-shows as well. Inconsistency is a common symptom of ‘freshmanitis’, but it’s time to squash that habit.
One final tangent before putting a bow on this preview. I’m in no position to tell the great Mark Schmidt what to do – but if he sought my counsel, I’d advise that he take the offensive harness off and let his horses gallop in transition more often. Physical specimens like Vasquez and Winston can really do damage in the open floor, where their natural athletic ability isn’t bounded by the confines of a set defense. The Bonnies rarely got to the free throw line last year, evidence of their apprehension to attack the rim, both in transition and in half-court settings.
Bottom Line: Of all the dangerous A-10 adversaries lurking around the league, the Bonnies could be this year’s biggest riser. There are many parallels here to last year’s Richmond team: A young, late-blooming nucleus maturing from under to upperclassmen. A coach with a sterling track record of harnessing consistent year-over-year personnel improvement. A paradigm shifting big man who fundamentally alters opposing scouting reports. Like a popcorn kernel percolating in the microwave, the Bonnies are on the cusp of a thunderous explosion this season, well-equipped to push for an outright A-10 title if injuries can be avoided – but with Osun, that ‘if’ looms large.
3. Saint Louis
Key Returners: Jordan Goodwin, Hasahn French, Javonte Perkins, Gibson Jimerson, Yuri Collins, Fred Thatch Jr., Jimmy Bell Jr., Demarius Jacobs, Terrence Hargrove Jr.
Key Losses: Tay Weaver
Key Newcomers: Marten Linssen (UNC Wilmington), Markhi Strickland, Andre Lorentsson
Lineup:
Outlook: If there’s a common denominator shared amongst the A-10’s elite, it’s ‘continuity’. Notice the consistent disparity between the crowded list of names in the ‘Key Returners’ section, compared to the barren blank spaces in the ‘Key Losses’ section. The sophomore and senior laden Billikens carry this same DNA.
First off, I’d be remiss to not shamelessly plug my ‘Next Year is Our Year’ piece (apologies to the A-10 diehards reading this preview in its entirety, who just got a double dose of narcissism). In that article from late February, I tipped my cap to Travis Ford for finally opening his eyes to a program-specific pandemic that’s crippled SLU for years: sh**ty shooting.
We don’t fancy ourselves rocket scientists here at 3MW, but we’ll gladly solve these elementary brainbusters. Free throw woes notwithstanding (we’ll get to those in a bit), inserting long-range shooting threats was the catalyst to SLU’s surge up the analytic charts last year. Unfortunately, the near 50-spot improvement in KenPom’s overall rankings only translated into a marginal move in the standings (6th in 2019, 4th last year), but such is life in this brutal A-10 landscape.
The loss of Tay Weaver (2nd on the team in 3-point makes last season) shouldn’t sting too badly with a repellent like Gibson Jimerson sitting in the medicine cabinet. True to his name, Jimerson was on his way to a breakout season before an injury cut his rookie campaign short before conference play. Opponents threw zone at SLU on 20% of all offensive possessions last year (48th highest rate in the country, per Synergy), further exemplifying the need for Jimerson’s zone busting.
Without Jimerson’s jumper, Javonte Perkins became the Billikens’ offensive messiah. A volume shooter and prolific scorer, Perkins provided the dynamic scoring punch SLU’s been needing for years. Prior to his arrival, Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French buoyed the scoring load, but Perkins’ sweet shooting stroke added a dose of finesse absent in the bull-headed Goodwin and French. Yuri Collins has boom upside as well, more of a pass-first facilitator than Perkins, but there’s plenty of jagged edges still lingering in his offensive game. Though, Goodwin can always take over as lead offensive initiator, so Collins’ inefficiency doesn’t pose a big risk.
Referencing Goodwin and French’s name this late in this preview makes me guilty of burying the lede, but everyone knows what they bring to the table. Collectively, they’re the flag bearers for SLU’s identity, toughness and physicality, which shines through the brightest on the defensive end (they were the only two A-10 teammates to crack the All-Defensive Team last year). The elephant in the room is their horrid free throw shooting – and horrid is being kind…
The graphic below shows the 20 worst free throw shooters in college basketball last season on over 100 or more attempts – having one player on this chart is too many:
The newcomers bring an international flair, but COVID-related complications place a huge barrier on player communication and hands-on development. Ford himself outright said, “we have a long way to go with those guys,” in an interview with the St. Louis Post Dispatch earlier this summer, so I’d be stunned to see any of the first-year additions make major waves.
Bottom Line: The sour stigma I had toward SLU basketball is finally withering away. For three straight seasons, Travis Ford repeatedly banged his head against the wall, adamant on winning his way, the hard way, turning a cold shoulder to glaring offensive deficiencies. Ignoring the lightning-in-a-bottle A-10 title run in 2019, last season was the first sign of what looks like sustainable program elevation. By broadening his recruiting strategy (read: recruiting shooters) and diversifying his offense (read: pushing the pace in transition), the once one-dimensional ‘Bully-kins’ are tapping into new wells of offense and finding new avenues to winning. I spy 6-7 teams capable of claiming the A-10 title this season and SLU is near the front of that line.
4. Dayton
Key Returners: Jalen Crutcher, Rodney Chatman, Ibi Watson
Key Losses: Obi Toppin, Trey Landers, Ryan Mikesell
Key Newcomers: Moulaye Sissoko, Zimife Nwokeji, RJ Blakney
Lineup:
*Special thanks to Sully for his insider intel on the Flyers 2020-21 outlook. His insights helped sharpen my perspective on a roster that carries a lot of question marks*
Outlook: I mean, what else is there to say…
The Dayton Flyers were a major motion picture fairytale without an ending last season. The only thing worse than seeing this magic carpet ride end with a soul-crushing loss in the NCAA Tournament is not ever taking the ride to begin with – for the record, I had Dayton penciled in as my 2020 National Champion.
All the analytic rankings resoundingly confirmed that Dayton was one of the nation’s elites last year. Obi Toppin’s rim-rattling hammers captured the casual eyeballs, but the collective solidarity is what made this offense a sight to behold for hoop junkies. No one breaks down team schematic intricacies better than Jordan Sperber, who created this 16-minute breakdown of the X&Os behind the Flyers’ 2020 juggernaut offense:
Shifting the microscope to 2021 – yes Flyer faithful, it’s time to move on – the million-dollar question is as follows: Does this poetry in motion lose its eloquence without Obi?
In a nutshell, yes, to some degree. Toppin was the cheat code for countless over the top lobs and one-on-one mismatches that can’t be replicated by any offensive system, even Anthony Grant’s. But the Dayton guards were overqualified side dishes to Toppin’s entrée, and now they’ll now become the main course.
Jalen Crutcher is the ringleader, a true gamer in every sense of the word. He’s clutch. He’s consistent. And he’s CRAZY efficient. Here’s a fun fact (a ‘nerd alert’ is in effect until the next paragraph): only 16 players in college basketball clocked more than 30 minutes a game, posted a usage rate above 22% while sustaining an offensive player rating above 125. Toppin and Crutcher accounted for two of those 16 players, but Crutcher was actually more efficient than Toppin in conference play – the chart below is sorted by O-Rating, though the stat itself is not displayed:
Now it’s time to get defensive. Literally. The Flyers’ harmonious offense drowned out their dominance on the other side of the ball, which boasted the best defensive 2-point FG% in the A-10 – I devoutly believe 2-point field goal percentage defense is one of the strongest indicators of an elite defense. By about halfway through February, the Flyers defense had hardened into an impenetrable fortress. The outer perimeter shell was the first and most impregnable layer, anchored by Crutcher, Rodney Chatman and Ibi Watson’s lockdown on-ball coverage. Obi’s otherworldly athleticism was transferrable to his role defensively, but he by no means a one-man-band on this end – he was just another link in the armor.
This is the main pillar of my case for Dayton remaining in the upper echelon of the A-10 totem pole: the defensive gap between Toppin to the revamped Flyer frontline is NOT a severe drop off. I almost removed the two charts below because of the noise underscoring the data, but the trend is still relevant – since Dayton built plenty of big leads last year, Obi would often sit during garbage time:
Jordy Tshimanga was Obi’s primary backup last season, a mammoth space eater due for a larger workload this season. While he’s an imposing presence, simply extracting his per minute production over a higher minute count ignores many layers to the Dayton frontcourt conundrum. I’ll toss the mic over to Sully for this section:
The return of Chase Johnson is a necessary boost for a roster that is featuring foul-lover Jordy Tshimanga, and unknown freshman, Moulaye Sissoko. With that said, the jury will remain fully out on Johnson for now. While the only thing I keep hearing from practice is how athletic he is, none of that evidence is available on game tape. He had a few good box scores last season before he left school, but mostly in buy-games. I'm going out on a limb to say his ceiling right now is probably as high as the floor is low. He could average 10 and 10, or be out of school by Christmas, neither would surprise me much.
Your question is precisely why the frontcourt situation is so tenuous. Jordy averaged almost 10 fouls per 40 minutes last season (yes, I’m serious, look it up), and Sissoko has obviously never touched the floor in the college game. You add in a wild card like Johnson, who’s never played a full season or been a contributor to a lineup for more than 2 months, and it looks more likely that Dayton plays small ball this upcoming season. Fortunately or unfortunately, all three of these dudes will need to make an impact nightly if Dayton expects to win the league.
That all checks out to me. Jordy’s foul addiction is nearly incurable at this juncture, but I share his glass-half full prognosis. With Chase Johnson returning as a high-upside insurance policy, along with army tank Moulaye Sissoko peeling off his redshirt tag, the Flyers can platoon up to three reliable contributors at the 5. Still, each carry substantial risk for various reasons (Jordy = foul tendencies; Johnson = injury rust; Sissoko = inexperience).
Trey Landers is the sneaky big blow on the defensive end, a brawny power wing who could defend 3s and 4s positions without breaking a sweat. Dwayne Cohill played his way into the crowded rotation last year with his defensive prowess, so he’ll help to some degree – though, he’s still a guard and doesn’t fully solve the desolate depth chart at the second forward spot.
This is where Zimife Nwokeji can come to the rescue. He’s a year ahead of his redshirt freshman counterparts in maturation, given he spent a post-graduate year at the SPIRE Institute. Once a lauded 3-star recruit out of the panhandle, he backed out of his initial commitment to Florida State, which ultimately paved his path to Dayton. This may be a lazy comparison, but it should resonate – Nwokeji’s a prototypical Leonard Hamilton recruit: long, athletic, disruptive and rim-seeking.
Bottom Line: It’s time to snap out of the Toppin trance. Last season’s utopia might be a distant memory, but hey, the return to reality won’t be so bad. The backcourt triumvirate alone is potent enough to keep the Flyers’ cruising altitude in the upper echelon of the A-10 stratosphere. Dayton may look outgunned and outmanned by Richmond and SLU’s stockpile of weapons, but I’d take Crutcher, Watson, and Chatman over any perimeter unit in the league.
5. VCU
Key Returners: Nah'Shon Hyland, KeShawn Curry, Vince Williams, Corey Douglas
Key Losses: Marcos Santos-Silva, Marcus Evans, Issac Vann, Malik Crowfield, Mike'l Simms, De'Riante Jenkins
Key Newcomers: Levi Stockard III (Kansas State), Adrian ‘Ace’ Baldwin, Mikeal Brown-Jones, Josh Banks, Jamir Watkins
Lineup:
Outlook: Nooooo, not that one! Don’t touch Marcus Evans!
On February 12th, clinging to an enviable 7-3 record in league play, VCU collapsed like a house of cards. Evans re-aggravated his brittle MCL against George Mason, and so began the unraveling of the Rams…
Evans’ severe re-injury risk hovered over VCU for the better part of two seasons. Two years ago, Evans was fully operational for most of the year, until a brutal crash against Rhode Island limited him to 8 minutes in the Rams’ A-10 Tournament and NCAA Tournament losses. He never repaired himself to full strength last season, laboring through much of conference play before the Mason incident effectively delivered the final blow.
However, Evans was just the tip of the injury iceberg. De'Riante Jenkins missed the last three games, Vince Williams missed the last four (on top of a five-game hiatus in January) and Corey Douglas clocked just 12 minutes total over the final seven tilts. All that culminated into the battered and bruised Rams becoming the A-10’s non-Fordham piñata down the stretch.
Mike Rhoades is banking on a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in 2021, which starts with filling Evans’ shoes. Enter Nah'Shon ‘Bones’ Hyland, the heralded rookie prospect turned super 6th-man turned full-time starter. The accumulation of injuries shoved Bones to the wolves late in the year, but he didn’t shy away from the challenge.
The evolution of Hyland’s game has me on the edge of my seat. For starters, he quickly soothed my preseason concerns about his shooting prowess (which were foolish in hindsight). Bones scorched the nets at a 47% clip in conference play (3rd best in the A-10), knocking down treys in all fashions: off movement, off dribble and WAY off the 3-point line.
While his future is sunspot bright, I’m still confused by a clear reluctance to attack the tin. Bones attempted only 24 free throws last season, averaging less than one freebie a game. He has a tendency to fall in love with his float and midrange game, rather than using that long, elastic 6’3 frame to finish at the rim.
Replacing Isaac Vann’s defensive mastery, nearly on par with Evans’ offensive impact, won’t be easy. It’s hard to stand out amongst the Rams’ cloned army of defensive soldiers, but Vann was the commander in chief. Jenkins, Crowfield and Mike'l Simms, all stout defenders in their own regard, also walk out the door, explaining why many prognosticators are discounting VCU in the early projections.
However, Rhoades’ rigor on the recruiting trail always has the Rams ready to retool and reload. Rather than swing for the fences with 4 and 5-star recruits (though, he certainly hit it out of the park with Bones), Rhoades consistently hits singles and doubles in the form of deep, ‘fit-for-system’ classes year over year. Replacing the notable names in the ‘Key Losses’ section looks daunting, but the deck is still stacked with a slew of undervalued 3-stars (Williams, Jarren McAllister, Hason Ward) and diamond-in-the-rough 2-stars (Douglas, KeShawn Curry, Jimmy Clark). And that’s only the incumbents – tack on the four 3-stars Rhoades hauled in this cycle (Adrian ‘Ace’ Baldwin, Mikeal Brown-Jones, Josh Banks, Jamir Watkins), which 247sports scored the best recruiting class in the A-10.
Williams is the odds-on favorite to assume the defensive stopper role this year, but all these dudes can defend. I rewatched the George Mason / VCU game as a refresher for this preview – I’ll admit, I forgot how stingy this defense is. No one player stands out above the rest, but all five guys clamp down. Rhoades’ modified version of Havoc is brilliant. The Rams delay offensive initiation with extended three-quarter court pressure and disrupt offensive rhythm by eliminating casual point to wing passes.
Last year’s defensive unit finished 45th nationally, which looks like precipitous drop from the 2019 7th ranked defense. The aforementioned injuries fractured the defensive underpinnings last year, but that 2019 top-10 finish was also a bit of fool’s gold. Opponents shot just 29% from behind the stripe against VCU in 2019, which reverted back to the mean (34%) last season.
That said, this dynamic is not purely luck-driven. Rhoades underscores running shooters off the 3-point line, forcing stand-still shooters to put it on the deck against their better judgment. Unlike VCU’s former head honchos, Shaka Smart and Will Wade, Rhoades employs a slightly more disciplined unit, one less reliant on generating steals. The Rams will still aggressively jump passing lanes, but rarely does it come at the expense of an easy cut or wide open 3.
The final piece of the defensive puzzle is the interior anchor, where Santos-Silva went to work last season. The suffocating Rams’ defenses are always stocked with a savage inside (Santos-Silva, Justin Tillman, Mo Alie-Cox, to name a few), so the spotlight will be on this positional battle this offseason. At the very least, Rhoades has options: K-State transfer Levi Stockard was granted immediate eligibility, a big development for a predominantly young frontline. Hason Ward’s per minute stats indicate he may have highest upside of the group, but I’m taking a flyer on IMG Academy import Mikeal Brown-Jones to usurp them all. Being compared to Draymond Green in a Richmond Times-Dispatch article this summer made my head snap, and that was before reading about his stellar breakout offensive campaign last season. Brown-Jones possesses that position-less agility that Rhoades’ loves, long enough to play the 5, but nimble enough to slide down to the 3. The clip below gives a taste of that Draymond Green comparison:
All optimism aside, valid concerns remain about the offensive side of the ball. No one except Bones averaged more than 5 PPG last season and it’s disheartening how sharply the Rams declined when the young guns were forced to pick up the pieces late in the year. Curry, McAllister and Clark are the three dominoes that need to fall in the right direction. Curry’s broken jump shot leads me to believe either Clark or McAllister will get ample opportunities to shine as the 2nd or 3rd banana flanking Bones in the backcourt. If one of these guys can make a De'Riante Jenkins type leap circa 2017 – after an injury-riddled freshman season, Jenkins exploded as a sophomore – it completely shifts the paradigm of the Rams’ offensive outlook. McAllister’s a freak athlete and a defensive terror in the press, but Clark’s ball skill gives him the edge in offensive usability.
Bottom Line: There are big shoes to fill, but VCU’s success is often system driven rather than personnel driven. I’ll concede that the late season collapse last year pokes a hole in that argument, but I’d rebuttal back with this: at the time, the sudden, knee-jerk shock to the system was too much to overcome for these unseasoned youngins. Now, those freshmen and sophomores, who were thrown into the fire without warning, are a year older and wiser, ready to carry the torch for a program that has a near bulletproof track record of staying in the A-10’s upper tier.
6. Duquesne
Key Returners: Sincere Carry, Marcus Weathers, Michael Hughes, Tavian Dunn-Martin, Lamar Norman Jr., Maceo Austin
Key Losses: Baylee Steele
Key Newcomers: Tyson Acuff
Lineup:
Outlook: Of the countless cliché dadisms beaten into my brain as a kid, this was my old man’s favorite: “Matt, there are two kinds of people in this world: those who break things and those who fix things – be a fixer.”
Folks, Keith Dambrot is a fixer.
Leading scorer Eric Williams transferred away. Frankie Hughes and Amari Kelly suffered season-ending injuries. The UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse sat idle all year for renovations, leaving the Dukes without a true home court venue.
Dambrot didn’t bat an eye.
The Dukes eclipsed the 20-win mark for the first time since Ron Everhart reached that milestone in 2009, claiming a share of 5th place in an unforgiving A-10 field. Dambrot dodged the transfer bullet this summer, as the Dukes effectively roll back their entire roster for a promising 2021 ride.
Duquesne will go as far as their Big-3 will carry them, Sincere Carry, Marcus Weathers and Michael Hughes. Carry is back in the saddle at point, a proud early adopter of the short shorts renaissance – you can’t help but notice his ox-like lower body strength. He’s on the shorter end of the height spectrum but generates quick and decisive bursts with that powerful low center of gravity to attack gaps in the defense. The clip below captures this in a nutshell:
Carry’s bulldog mentality also shines through on defense, where Dambrot often tasks him with locking up the opposition’s best perimeter scorer. “He might be the most dominant defensive guard in the country when he wants to be,” Dambrot said about Carry in mid-January. “When you can do that, that differentiates you from everybody else.”
Weathers might be the secret weapon in Dambrot’s guard-oriented system. Back in 2019, his first year at Duquesne, he seemed complacent lurking in the shadows. Last year, he threw caution to the wind, playing a re-run of his ball wrecking dominance from his time in the MAC at Miami Ohio– this time, he made mincemeat of A-10 defenders. In assembling four-guard lineups, the instructions call for a rare widget like Weathers. At 6’5 with trampoline hops, Weathers can partially offset significant size disadvantages when pinned against larger forwards.
Ironically, Weathers loves to set up shop in the post, where he can blow by steel-footed forwards with an explosive first step or pull up from midrange and hang for an eternity. Dambrot often calls Weathers’ number in crunchtime, when he can create no-win mismatch conundrums for defenses. This is exemplified in the GIF below, which is snipped from a critical late possession against Dayton (a game in which the Dukes almost won). Dambrot runs a designed isolation play for Weathers, set up by a savvy post-to-post exchange on the block:
The final point of the triangle is Mr. Hughes, whose relentless motor and defensive destruction complete the Big-3. He’s the tone setter in the belly of the defense, an elastic rim protector and an anticipatory thief for a 6’8 forward. Hughes is also a reliable finisher around the rim, but he’s not needed to carry the scoring load – most of the offense is sourced through Weathers or Carry’s playmaking.
Hughes and Weathers bring unrivaled athleticism to the 4 and 5 positions, enabling Dambrot to dial up the defensive pressure at his beck and call. Dambrot toes the ‘attack vs. retreat’ line delicately in using the press, ramping it up when necessary but reeling it back to avoid overexposure. Per Synergy, Duquesne pressed on 17% of all defensive possessions last season, the 45th highest rate in America, and held opposing offenses to 0.68 PPP on those possessions (29th best clip in the country).
The other fireball in Dambrot’s hopper is Tavian Dunn-Martin, a mini stick of dynamite with the flammability to take over a game instantly. At 5’8, Dunn-Martin is an emblem of the Napoleon Complex. He’s a confident chucker with parking lot range, the type of tool many coaches often struggle to integrate. Dambrot, on the other hand, has nurtured TDM delicately for nearly five years, and has a good feel for how and when to unleash Martin – after beginning the season as a full-time starter, Dambrot re-tuned Martin into an incendiary off the bench microwave.
Martin’s willingness to relinquish his starting spot to a rookie, Maceo Austin, speaks volume about this team’s chemistry. Austin’s counting and efficiency stats didn’t jump off the page, but Dambrot raves about his intangible value. The former 3-star prospect is bound for a sophomore breakthrough, while he shepherds along another 3-star crown jewel recruit, Tyson Acuff. Acuff likely opens the season as the forgotten fifth perimeter piece in this stable of guards, behind Carry, Austin, Dunn-Martin and the sharpshooting Lamar Norman Jr.
Baylee Steele is the only major loss from last year’s core rotation. At 6’11, Steele gave Dambrot the option to size up with a traditional 5-man, where Hughes will likely play the bulk of his minutes this season. Austin Rotroff’s wonky knees inhibited his impact last year, but he’s the favorite to be the change of pace garbage guy up front (unless St. Benedict Prep product Mounir Hima’s shot-swatting is too much to ignore).
Bottom Line: The Dukes are overflowing with experience and explosiveness. As many as six guys have the chops to go for 20 on any given night, so good luck guessing which one will strike next. The lack of interior size is the obvious chink in the armor, but Weathers and Hughes are alien-esque athletes that can mitigate most height disadvantages. Occasional defensive breakdowns aside, the Dukes enter 2021 as a well-oiled machine. They won’t need the fine tuning many other squads importing new pieces must undergo, a major edge in this COVID-19 environment. All things considered, my greatest fear is that I slotted Duquesne a few notches too low in the overall rankings, but they’re in my top tier for a reason.
7. Rhode Island
Key Returners: Fatts Russell, Jermaine Harris, Antwan Walker
Key Losses: Cyril Langevine, Jeff Dowtin, Jacob Toppin, Tyrese Martin
Key Newcomers: Makhi Mitchell (Maryland), Makhel Mitchell (Maryland), Jalen Carey (Syracuse), Malik Martin (Charlotte), Jeremy Sheppard (JUCO), Ishmael Leggett, Tres Berry
Lineup:
Outlook: Like a 4th grade science fair project, I put this preview on the backburner for months. All I could do was twiddle my thumbs, anxiously awaiting the NCAA to make a damn decision on any one of the four transfers David Cox bagged over the last 12 months.
Thankfully, Fatts Russell threw me some rope when he confirmed early in the summer his intent to return to Kingston for one last rodeo. The Rams’ perimeter lightning bolt tried to parlay the momentum from a stellar junior campaign into the NBA Draft evaluation process, hoping to hear ‘stock-rising’ words of affirmation. Holes in his game remain, but last year’s groundbreaking jump shot discovery elevated Russell from a one-dimensional speed burner to a dynamic scorer. Russell canned 38% of his triples in A-10 play last season, good for 12th best in the league, a 15% improvement over the anemic 23% clip posted as a sophomore. This tore up the script on Fatts’ old scouting report. Defenses had to at least honor the jumpshot, which made the jet-quick Russell virtually impossible to corral in open space. End-to-end, there isn’t a faster guard in the conference, but his ability to change speed and direction on a dime is what makes him so dangerous.
The only other appetizing leftovers from last year’s roster are Jermaine Harris and Antwan Walker, two physical enforcers who aren’t afraid to roll up their sleeves. Rhody’s offense embodies three descriptors, “dictating, attacking, disrupting”, as detailed by Cox when describing his preferred style of play back in 2018. Harris and Walker, despite their barren offensive skillsets, can emerge as valuable possession-stealing assets in this system by winning battles on the boards.
However, they’ll have to relinquish a portion of their minutes to the Mitchell twins, Makhi Mitchell and Makhel Mitchell, two immensely talented forwards from Maryland. Of the identical twin package, Makhi is the one who should do serious damage this year. A former top-70 recruit, Makhi played in Jalen Smith’s shadow last year at Maryland, but the starting center spot is his to lose this season. He’s a plus athlete with above average shot blocking potential and is a shockingly confident handler out in the open floor. Above all, he’s a versatile asset on both ends and an enabler to Rhody’s up-tempo brand of ball.
After clocking the fastest tempo in the Atlantic-10 last year, expect the Rams to keep the pedal to the metal this season. Russell will remain the pacesetter, but Cox installed additional afterburners with Syracuse transfer Jalen Carey, Charlotte transfer Malik Martin (younger brother of Hassan Martin), JUCO stalwart Jeremy Sheppard and freshman Ishmael Leggett.
Carey, a former top-50 recruit, comes to Kingston in need of a fresh start, after flaming out in upstate New York. Injuries and limited playing time kept Carey down in his first two collegiate seasons, but he’ll get every opportunity to flex his talent this year. Unlike Carey, who recently received NCAA clearance to play right away, Sheppard was denied immediate eligibility last year. He’s now free from NCAA purgatory and figures to be a key cog in the backcourt rotation from day 1.
Martin’s my personal favorite of the bunch, a more versatile plug-and-play option off the ball. Regarded as a shutdown defender, Martin’s study build resembles the incumbents Harris and Walker, but he packs more of a scoring punch. Don’t be surprised to see Martin wedge his way into the starting lineup on the wing, but he’s thick enough to play some 4 in short spurts.
Leggett is the real wildcard, a DC product who garnered rave reviews from local scouts during the recruiting process. There’s reason to believe he was vastly underrecruited and could blossom into an instant impact rookie for the Rams this season. I’d be remiss to gloss over the freakish and terrifying events involving Leggett this offseason – he was apparently the target of attempted murder by a former high school classmate, but, fortunately, was unharmed.
Bottom Line: Apologies Rhody fans for this relatively short synopsis of a preview, but I’m torn on where to go with this prognosis. Fatts is the only known commodity on a roster littered with unknowns. Touting the Rams as a surefire top-5 A-10 team assumes the pedigree attached to the newcomers will all come to fruition this year – a type of wishful thinking my cynical brain won’t accept so easily. Can Carey and the Mitchell boys fulfill the prophecy scouts bestowed upon them during their grassroots years?
Regardless, this team is tailor-made to fly all over the floor in Cox’s NASCAR paced system. On Adam Finklestein’s podcast this summer, he talked about his plans to crank up the full-court pressure this year, citing the bolstered bench as a key reason why – I pity all guards who have to bring the ball up against this swarming defensive front.
8. Davidson
Key Returners: Kellan Grady, Carter Collins, Hyunjung Lee, Luka Brajkovic, Mike Jones
Key Losses: Jon Axel Gudmundsson, KiShawn Pritchett,
Key Newcomers: Sam Mennenga, Grant Huffman, Emory Lanier
Lineup:
Outlook: Beneath Bob McKillop’s glossy set of luscious locks lies an AI-level processing chip of a basketball brain. This beautiful mind has conceived one of the game’s most elaborate offensive schemes, the secret sauce to Davidson’s rise from tiny liberal arts college into known national basketball brand.
(Ok fair, Steph Curry’s 2008 NCAA Tournament circus show didn’t hurt either…)
But, like John Nash, McKillop’s renowned brilliance isn’t blemish-free. The defensive side of the ball is where the Silver Fox repeatedly spars with old demons. Like an anchor on the sea floor, the Wildcats’ offensively fueled speedboat is often held back by a dragging defense. This isn’t a function of poor coaching or flawed defensive principles. McKillop’s teams always defend with sound defensive structure, usually in the form of a conservative shell designed to mitigate speed and size deficiencies.
Historically, Davidson’s strongest defensive units featured at least one versatile defensive stopper. KiShawn Pritchett was the most recent edition of that prototype. The 6’6 quasi forward was a defensive sealant for an athletically depleted Wildcat team, but chronic knee problems and a tragic string of off the floor incidents were too much to overcome. Pritchett’s versatility was not limited to the defensive end of the floor. He was a critical supplier for high quality looks on offense, often used as a point forward in a variety of different sets.
The 2021 Wildcats also wave goodbye to their top distributor and best all-around player in Jon Axel Gudmundsson. In the Davidson Mount Rushmore of hoopers, JAG’s face might be overshadowed by Curry’s dazzling career, but be sure to take inventory of his trophy case (2019 A-10 Player of the Year, two-time A-10 All-Conference selection, to name a few). He was the table-setter for the A-10’s second most efficient offense last season and the default easy button in late shot clock situations.
Kellan Grady will now become Master and Commander of the offense on the perimeter outskirts, while big man Luka Brajkovic shoulders a heavier load inside. Grady’s stellar rookie season back in 2018 fooled Davidson fans into thinking they stumbled into a second coming of Steph Curry. After a pedestrian sophomore campaign – at least, relative to the lofty standards he set as a rookie – Grady finally found his groove during the dog days of conference play last year. By mid-March, Grady was a mortal lock to drop 20 on any given night, while his role broadened into a co-facilitator alongside JAG.
On the flip side, it was Brajkovic who caught a mild case of the sophomore slumps last year, akin to Grady’s 2019 campaign. The super-skilled big man with an endless array of low-post moves was effective against challengers of equal or inferior caliber – but top-flight competition with towering frontlines were able to neutralize Brajkovic inside. Notice the dip in efficiency against top-50 and top-100 ranked opponents, per KenPom’s overall rankings:
However, Brajkovic started to solve this riddle as conference play progressed, a refreshing development given his number will be called more than ever this season.
Carter Collins likely ascends to 3rd banana with JAG out of the picture, a mistake-free, jack-of-all-trades lefty. Collins can stroke it from distance but labeling him as a ‘shooter’ diminishes everything else he brings to the table. Fellow incumbent Mike Jones returns as more of a catch-and-shoot specialist, while budding sophomore Hyunjung Lee aims to break that label as a sophomore.
Lee lit the nets on fire as a freshman, but an untimely injury extinguished his blistering hot start. Lee managed to regain his mojo late in the season, momentum he’ll look to parlay into the 2021 campaign. The eye test confirms enormous upside is simmering within, including a crafty handle and an innate creativity around the rim.
Lee’s my bet for biggest Wildcat breakout this season, but it’s hard to ignore the decorated crop of freshmen coming to town. New Zealand native Sam Mennenga could take Davidson’s offense into overdrive, a fringe top-100 4-star recruit who fills a glaring hole in the Wildcats’ roster. Mennenga is a sharpshooting lefty at 6’8 with the prerequisite passing precision you’d expect from a McKillop recruit. He’ll fit like a glove at the 4 alongside Brajkovic, but he’ll first need to leapfrog know-your-role All-Star Nelson Boachie-Yiadom for the final starting spot.
Along with Grant Huffman and Emory Lanier, the Wildcat supporting cast is loaded with snipers. My colleague Jim wrote about Davidson’s bevy of drillers last season, which lost one of its best long range missiles when Luke Frampton announced his departure from the team due to personal reasons.
Accounting for Frampton’s jarring departure and Pritchett’s extended absence, Davidson was effectively down two starters for most of the year last season. The measured and unflappable McKillop even felt the ruffles of last year’s bumpy ride, prompting a trip down memory lane through his hometown roots of New York City.
“I have a little kinship with Coney Island and the ‘Cyclone’,” McKillop told the Charlotte Observer in March. “So, I understand what it’s like to be on a roller coaster, and I felt like that all season long. It was from beginning to end.”
Bottom Line: Even without Frampton and Pritchett, there’s still plenty of horsepower underneath the hood. Defense remains the big unknown, a regurgitated narrative with Davidson over the years. The Wildcats may be exposed to streaky shooting nights without a reliable defensive buffer, but I’ll trust the ingenuity of McKillop and his scintillating cavalry of snipers.
Tier 2
9. Massachusetts
Key Returners: Tre Mitchell, T.J. Weeks, Carl Pierre, Preston Santos, Dibaji Walker
Key Losses: Sean East, Keon Clergeot, Samba Diallo, Djery Baptiste
Key Newcomers: Javohn Garcia, Cairo McCrory, Ronnie DeGray, Dyondre Dominguez, Mark Gasperini (American), Noah Fernandes (Wichita State)
Lineup:
Outlook: From someone who still hangs out with his high-school friends at age 30, I appreciate the ‘all-in-the-family’ model Matt McCall’s developed at Amherst…
Josh Walfish of the Daily Hampshire Gazette broke down the ‘Woodstock conundrum’ early this summer. After two more members of the Woodstock fraternity, Dyondre Dominguez and Noah Fernandes, came on board in late June, the 2021 roster featured eight Woodstock alumni, which accounts for more than half of all scholarship players on the roster. On the surface, this looks like a narrow-minded recruiting focus, one that’s dangerously leveraged on talent development at one prep school. But, as Walfish explains in that article, Woodstock is a national brand in the grassroots circuit, akin to Monteverde or IMG Academy, which draws in players from all over the country. So, in a sense, Woodstock serves as a quasi-incubator for harvesting UMASS talent. For example, three Woodstock graduates on the roster originally hail from Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania, miles away from the school’s campus in Connecticut.
Regardless of where Minutemen fans stand on this debate, there’s no disputing the sparking batch of rookies churned out by the Woodstock talent factory last year. Tre Mitchell is a comet, the standout star of this bunch, but TJ Weeks and Preston Santos are no slouches themselves.
Mitchell’s skill level and balance are downright scary for a teenager. A true inside-out scorer, no matter where he is on the floor, patience is the secret sauce to Mitchell’s effectiveness. He’s got a downy soft touch around the rim and can carve out space in the greasy areas with a thick 240-pound frame. Some might argue he ignores his physical advantage, opting to float on the perimeter too often, but this is arguably his most precious attribute. As this excellent compilation from The Dog shows, Mitchell’s handle, passing and shooting fluidity resemble a young Nikola Jokic-in-training:
Even when Mitchell doesn’t directly contribute to a bucket, you can see the stress he puts on other defenders. They have no backside support with Mitchell’s gravitational pull drawing primary rim protectors away from the goal, which frees up driving and cutting lanes for the other Minutemen on the floor. Defensively, that clip shows the best version of Mitchell – a deceptively nimble big bodied big with decent instincts. He still has a long way to go as a shot blocker, but the intangibles are clearly there. McCall’s aggressive press and airtight perimeter defense in the half-court demands a reliable fly swatter as the last line of defense, which is where Mitchell must thrive for UMass’s defense to improve. For context, UMass checked in with the 10th ranked defense in the A-10 last year. This is an excusable outcome for a young team, but its light years away from where it needs to be for a top-5 A-10 finish to come to fruition.
Weeks, on the other hand, has unfinished business to attend to in 2021. Last year, the lefty played just 10 games before a hernia shut down his season abruptly. To some extent, grizzled vet Carl Pierre is just an elder version of Weeks, a lethal 3-point driller who’s been synonymous with UMass basketball since 2017. Pierre was the Minutemen’s top minute-man (ha!) a year ago and could eclipse the 100-start milestone by season’s end. Over his first two seasons in Amherst, Pierre canned over 40% of his triples, a sign that last year’s slump was more anomaly than regression.
When Pierre and Weeks are both cookin’ simultaneously, the Minutemen’s offense can go Mach 5. McCall was explicit about his push to get these two snipers open looks on the wing, specifically in transition:
“We’ve got to ride them,” McCall said after a November 20th victory over Rider, in which Weeks and Pierre combined for 44 points. “When [TJ] and Carl are firing them in like that, we’ve got to continue. When you’re coming down on the break in transition — where are they? Are they sprinting to the corners, can I slice the floor and try and get one off that way? We’ve got to be better there.”
The question is, who’s going to be the mailman delivering Weeks and Pierre the rock on time and on target this season. Sean East’s transfer back to his home state of Indiana sets the stage for a potential breakout star in Jahvon Garcia. By all accounts, Garcia is a turbo-charged version of East. He’s got long arms and a quick burst off the floor, as seen in countless highlight reel blocks scattered across his film compilations. Defensively, he looks like a match made in heaven for McCall’s havoc-esque style. Offensively, he’s got a nose for the rim and shies away from no one when he takes flight. With the weapons around him this year, his passing precision will be the key to unlocking the best version of this UMass offense.
Garcia’s path to the limelight may be perturbed by Fernandez, the Wichita State import who opted to rekindle his high school memories closer to home. In short, I share the same sentiment on Fernandez’ impending impact as UMass aficionado Stu Luddecke. As he alludes to in that breakdown, Fernandez gives McCall another option at point, which diversifies the risk away from Garcia and Kolton Mitchell. Mitchell may be leapfrogged in the rotation this year after notching ten starts last season. He left a sour taste in my mouth each time I watched UMass last season, masquerading as a one-dimensional scorer (drive-only) who forces way too many circus shots for my appetite. Perhaps I’m too quick to judge – after all, he’s still in the budding stages of his development – but McCall’s hotbed of talent could relegate Mitchell further down the pine this year.
The lesser known gem of last year’s rookie crop is Preston Santos, a quintessential energy guy. UMass was 1-5 in conference before McCall injected Santos into the lineup. Santos helped flipped the script to the tune of a 7-5 finish. Santos is best suited on the wing positionally, but that doesn’t factor in Dibaji Walker, another rangy wing and Mark Gasperini, a fundamental-first big man from American. Walker completely changed the complexion of a few games last season (vs. St. Joseph’s on 1/29, vs. SLU on 2/18), while Gasperini, an accomplished American grad transfer, will spell Mitchell up front.
To conclude, allow me to contextualize this 9th place projection (I fully expect to be skewered on UMass message boards regardless). I currently have the Minutemen slated a tick inside the top-100 in my overall power ratings (the A-10 is loaded, folks), which equates to a 70-spot leap from last season’s 165th overall finish in KenPom. As a reference point, less than 50 teams (48 by my tally, but feel free to check my math) made that drastic of a jump from 2018-19 to 2019-20. Thus, while this 9th place prediction looks disrespectful on the surface, I’m projecting a hefty bump for a team that lost its starting point guard (East) and best two-way rebounder (Diallo) this summer.
Bottom Line: As you run through the roster, it’s easy to get sucked into the UMass hype vortex. Mitchell has POTY potential and he’s surrounded by a plethora of high-octane offensive options at every position. The key this year will be cohesion. Whether it be offensive shot-selection or defensive rotations, the Minutemen fell short in this department last year. Lapses in judgment on both ends wasted away precious possessions, which is why the flair often overshadowed the substance. On paper, the Minutemen have NCAA Tournament upside. In fact, I might go as far as to say UMass has one of the highest ceilings in this league. But, that’s contingent on SO many sliding variables breaking the right way, which is why I’m erring on the side of caution before chugging the maroon kool-aid.
10. George Washington
Key Returners: Jameer Nelson Jr., Maceo Jack, Jamison Battle, Amir Harris, Chase Paar
Key Losses: Armel Potter, Arnaldo Toro, Justin Mazzula
Key Newcomers: Sloan Seymour (Siena), Matthew Moyer (Vanderbilt), James Bishop (LSU), Brandon Leftwich (Mount St. Mary’s), Hunter Dean (Southern Miss)**
**eligible at semester
Lineup:
Outlook: They say it takes one step back to take two steps forward. By hook or by crook, last year’s roster housecleaning may have been necessary for Jamion Christian to forge ahead with clear skies in his rebuilding efforts. Midway through the season, sophomore forward Mezie Offurum and junior guard Justin Mazzulla bolted for the exit, and freshman guard Shawn Walker Jr. would eventually follow their lead early this summer.
During the year, injuries to key veteran leaders, Armel Potter and Arnaldo Toro, splashed water on the grease fire, further stripping the Colonials of any sufficient depth whatsoever for large chunks of the season. In the moment, Potter and Toro’s sporadic availability was a death sentence to a young and unproven roster still finding its way.
Funny how time changes perspective. Looking ahead to 2021, Potter and Toro’s omissions from the lineup may have been a blessing in disguise. Three burgeoning rookies, Jameer Nelson Jr., Jamison Battle and Chase Paar, no longer had Toro and Potter’s safety net hovering over them and they quickly learned how to fend for themselves in an unforgiving A-10 landscape. The fitness and conditioning of this smoldering young core was stretched to the limit, especially when Nebraska transfer Amir Harris went down for the year with nine games remaining.
Christian overhauled the rotation with new pieces from all over, but Nelson, Battle and Paar will form the intrinsic nucleus of George Washington basketball for the foreseeable future. Nelson, the perimeter creator, Battle, the wing sniper and Paar, the big connector, are each oozing with upside. And, as detailed by Eamonn Brennan in the Athletic this offseason, few coaches are better at extracting potential from within:
Now at George Washington, Christian is perhaps best known for a meticulous approach — for being the type to tell a reporter, for example, that a player in his system should take 100 2s and 240 3s in a season, on average. George Washington’s staff tracks everything its players do in practice and games, and offer up hard numbers for annual improvement. “Typically guys with us get 20 percent better in their second year,” Christian said.
For my money, Christian’s obsessive commitment to player development is rivaled by only Mark Schmidt in the A-10, a big reason why I’m convinced this rising sophomore trio are in store for mega leaps this year.
It won’t be long before Nelson, the son of St. Joseph’s legend Jameer Nelson, is stuntin’ like his daddy. Christian’s pick-n-roll happy offense is a lead guard’s paradise – per the chart below, no team in America ran more PnR action last season:
Christian loves to start possessions with a double ball screen option at the top of the key, which kick starts the perpetual off-ball movement and misdirection screening action. As the possession evolves, multiple guards will find themselves in this initiation spot at the top of the key. With Nelson, Harris, and transfer pickups James Bishop (former top-150 recruit) and Brandon Leftwich (Christian’s former point guard at Mount St. Mary’s), GW can trot out four dynamic creators who can make stuff happen from the point of attack.
Next on Christian’s list of offensive ingredients is shooting. Long-range precision is a must in Christian’s complex offense, which is designed to maximize space in the middle of the floor. That spacing is only as good as the shooting threats lurking on the perimeter, and Christian has an abundance of long-range marksmen in his back pocket.
Maceo Jack has been the Colonials’ token 3-point driller for three years running, boasting a career 35% hit rate from downtown. One of the few leftovers from the Maurice Joseph era, it makes sense why Jack stayed put during the change in regime – he’ll get the greenest of lights under Christian, who told Kevin Sweeney this summer he has a goal of 400 made 3s this year. Jack and Battle (a slightly burlier wing who doubles as a nominal-4 defensively) each hoisted a whopping 243 tripes last season, but Christian wanted more shooting. Naturally, he plucked Sloan Seymour, from his old Siena stomping grounds. If the positional label “stretch-4” could be found in Websters’ Dictionary, Seymour’s picture would be the accompanying visual. Few embrace a role as niche as Seymour, but where he specializes, he excels (he shot 37% on a whopping 373 attempts back in 2019).
Christian’s obsession with floor spacing and shooting leaves little room for bigs to make waves, but Paar is the perfect forward archetype in this context. He’s deceptively mobile and an effective screener and seemed to quickly master his role in the offense. But rather than wait patiently for Paar to cook, Christian got busy on the transfer wire, reinforcing the frontline with two ready-made contributors:
Matthew Moyer: it’s easy to cite Moyer’s once heralded pedigree as a reason to think he’ll tear up the A-10 but taking a step back at a substantially worse Vandy team last season is alarming. He should be viewed as a high upside reserve, destined to have a few big game-changing moments throughout the season – though, penciling him for 20-25 minutes of reliable burn feels like a bridge too far.
Hunter Dean: As described by himself, per the school website, Dean fits right into that unorthodox big prototype. His athleticism should turn him into an effective pick-n-roll diver and a nuisance on the defensive end.
Speaking of defense, I’ve conveniently ignored this side of the ball to this juncture. Christian effectively opted to outlaw zone defense last season, a jarring swerve from what Colonial fans have been accustomed to. Dating all the way back to 2014, George Washington played zone on 31% of all defensive possessions, which spans Mike Lonergan’s tenure and the forgettable Maurice Joseph chapter. Last year, that rate plummeted to 1%.
Given the A-10 boasts some of the nation’s elite point guards, a far cry from the flappable ballhandlers seen in the NEC, I doubt we’ll ever see the frenetic pressure defense Christian deployed at Mount St. Mary’s. Still, last year’s rendition was far more cautious than expected, evidenced by the 2nd lowest defensive turnover rate in the conference. With a significantly deeper bench than a year ago, all signs point to this pendulum swinging back in the other direction.
Bottom Line: Armel Potter was the ultimate enigma. I sung his praises from the mountain tops, but at the end of the day, he was erratic as a lead ball handler, noticeably bothered by a wrist injury when he returned late in the year. Christian will now toss the keys to Nelson and an upgraded backcourt to ignite the offense, which will largely live and die by the 3-ball. It’s possible I’m jumping the gun on a Colonial breakthrough this season, but Year 2 of Christian should solidify that this program is on the right path back to A-10 relevancy.
11. George Mason
Key Returners: Javon Greene, Jordan Miller, A.J. Wilson, Xavier Johnson, Josh Oduro, Jamal Hartwell II, Ian Boyd, Greg Calixte
Key Losses: Justin Kier, Goanar Mar
Key Newcomers: Ronald Polite, Otis Frazier III, Malik Henry, Tyler Kolek
Lineup:
Outlook: George Mason’s 2019-20 season can be dissected into three chapters:
No Kier: Part 1
Kier’s Return
No Kier: Part 2
Chapter 1 took a surprising turn for the better. Despite Kier missing the first six games of the season, the Patriots were shot out of a cannon, racing ahead to the best start in program history (11-1). Dave Paulsen delicately integrated Kier back into the mix, switching back to a four-guard lineup after adjusting to a traditional 3-out, 2-in format without him. But, when Kier reinjured the stress fracture in his foot right before conference play, Paulsen shifted gears again, back to the 3-out, 2-in look they started with.
Quite simply, the Patriots never settled into a consistent offensive identity. Kier’s all-around game was so unique that Paulsen had to adapt the offense based on his availability. While they clearly struggled without him in league play, that third chapter will provide a clue as to what Paulsen’s offense will look like this season.
The success of the 3-out, 2-in offensive structure hinges on 6’9 sophomore Josh Oduro’s development, who Paulsen believes is percolating with upside. Ideally, he’d love to pair Oduro with AJ Wilson, last year’s most improved player in the A-10. The goggle-wearing, shot-swatting Wilson was the epicenter of Mason’s defense last year, morphing from non-factor to game-changer overnight.
Kier’s wonky foot pushed Javon Greene to center stage last year, the closest thing to a constant Paulsen had in the backcourt. Green is a silky-smooth operator on the wing who can fill it up in bunches – his efficiency will be highly correlated to sophomore point guard Xavier Johnson, who endured some growing pains as a rookie. Johnson’s a defensive pest, but he must become a dependable offensive initiator for this offense to bloom.
Jordan Miller is a prototypical 6’6 wing, who’s started every game that he’s been healthy over the last two seasons. Miller really stepped outside of his comfort zone last year, launching 100 triples as a sophomore, a drastic uptick from 18 3s attempted as a freshman. Continuing to hone that jumper will do wonders for this offense, but he can’t lose sight of his true identity: a fearless rim attacker and relentless glass crasher.
Jamal Hartwell is the wildcard. Once a full-time starter at point guard, Hartwell was relegated to super-sub status at the onset of A-10 play. As Paulsen alluded to on our podcast this summer, an unidentified illness later to be determined as pneumonia stunted his growth last season. Hartwell can provide instant offense when’s he on, but his little frame is prone to inefficiency. With all hands on deck this year, Hartwell is best optimized as the first or second guy off the bench, as opposed to a full-time starter with a 30-35 minute workload.
Two more deep sleepers in the pipeline are Ian Boyd and Bahaide “Dady” Haidara (pronounced: DAHD-zee), both of whom are coming off serious wrist injuries. Boyd broke his wrist right at the end of the 2018-19 campaign, earning him a much-deserved medical redshirt last season. He’s been a mainstay in the rotation dating back to 2017, a clear sign of Paulsen’s trust in him. A sturdy power guard / wing, Boyd likely opens the season as a fungible asset off-the-pine. Haidara, on the other hand, has a lot more to prove, but his pedigree speaks for itself. He was the 11th ranked Canadian prospect coming out of high school, but only saw action in two games last year before the wrist injury ended his season.
Defensively, Paulsen is retuning his standard dials. Once notorious for a gap-protecting, gang-rebounding defensive mentality, Paulsen’s opened up the playbook to optimize his guard and wing-heavy rosters. A thin and inexperienced frontline pushed Paulsen to ramp up the aggression on the perimeter, even stretching the backcourt coverage into some three-quarter court looks. The Patriots pressed on 21% on all defensive possessions last season, per Synergy, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but only 20 teams in America pressed more often. However, this recent shift in strategy won’t deviate from the core conservative principles he’s always coached on:
Bottom Line: A deeper, and presumably healthy, roster should set the stage for a major bounce back in 2021. Basically everyone not named Justin Kier is back, and the Patriots should benefit from a clearly defined style and identity from day 1, as opposed to oscillating back and forth to accommodate Kier’s presence. Green, Miller and Wilson is a sturdy foundation to start from, but guys like Johnson and Oduru must star in their respective roles to for the Patriots to hit their inherent peak.
Tier 3
12. La Salle
Key Returners: Ayinde Hikim, David Beatty, Scott Spencer, Christian Ray, Sherif Kenney, Jared Kimbrough, Brandon Stone
Key Losses: Isiah Deas, Ed Croswell, Saul Phiri
Key Newcomers: Clifton Moore (Indiana), Jhamir Brickus, Anwar Gill, Tegra Izay
Lineup:
Outlook: There was no time for training wheels for these young Explorers last season. The A-10 schedule put Ashley Howard’s team through the ringer early. A frontloaded schedule commenced with a visit from last year’s A-10 juggernaut Dayton. Then, in late January, the Explorers squared off against Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU, SLU and Duquesne in succession. Howard’s bunch came out the other end of that stress test battled scarred, which help fueled a mini resurgence down the stretch. The Explorers crossed the finish line with a 6-12 record, winning five of their final nine contests.
The offense looked discombobulated last year, but that was mostly a function of inexperience. Freshmen guards rarely set the world on fire in this system, as their orchestration of the offense requires multiple years to master. Ayinde Hikim’s freshmen growing pains at the point is a prime example of this development curve. He’s an absolute blur with the ball, and dropped some highlight-reel dimes, but often played out of control.
For context, Howard runs what he refers to as a ‘Multi-face Motion Offense’. ‘Drive’ and ‘Space’ are the pillars, seen in the sublime offenses Howard helped architect at Villanova under Jay Wright. Howard hasn’t quite found the horses to replicate that at LaSalle, but the concepts demand similar player prototypes: Triple threat drivers, passers and shooters, who can attack hard closeouts, find the open man and knock down the open 3. In many ways, there’s overlapping themes between LaSalle and St. Joseph’s, another Philly-5 program under the direction of a former Jay Wright disciple. There’s a clear vision for what each coach is building towards, but the practicality of finding the personnel to unlock the beauty of ‘Supernova’ is tricky. Howard skews more towards Wright’s tempo comfort zone – fast, but in control – as opposed to Lange’s Formula 1 speed.
Defensively, Howard’s affection for dialing up pressure is a slight deviation from his mentor’s playbook. Per Synergy, La Salle pressed on nearly 20% of all defensive possessions last year, which ranks in the top-40 nationally. Hikim, Sherif Kenney and David Beatty are each jet quick disruptors in the backcourt, while Scott Spencer and Christian Ray form a smothering tandem on the wing. Along with the now-departed Isiah Deas and Saul Phiri, this nucleus generated steals at the highest rate in the A-10 last season.
However, the backend discipline was partially compromised by this over-aggressive mindset, culminating in the Explorers surrendering 54% shooting from inside the arc. Overlaying that with hoop-math.com’s shot distribution data verifies this was largely a byproduct of simply letting opponents get to the rim undeterred – 43% of all opposing shot attempts came at the rim last year, the 14th highest clip in America.
If Howard is gung-ho on dictating the action defensively with blanket pressure, a reliable interior back stop is critical. Ed Croswell was this safety net for most of the year last season, until he bolted for the door with just three games remaining in the season. The abrupt exit prompted Howard to promote Jared Kimbrough back into the starting lineup. Kimbrough missed six games in the heart of A-10 play last year, a span in which the Explorers went 1-5, leaving Croswell on an island up front. Croswell’s a hungry hippo on the boards, but when Kimbrough reentered the fold late in the year, it was clear he was the missing link. The obligatory small sample size caveat is in effect for the chart below, but Kimbrough’s net impact over the final eight games of the year was clearly positive:
Indiana import Clifton Moore is a readymade reinforcement to Kimbrough up front, assuming he doesn’t leapfrog Kimbrough in the pecking order. Moore’s 3-star pedigree and pit stop in Hooiser land may fool some into believing he’ll automatically be gifted the starting nod, but I remain skeptical. Regardless, the Moore versus Kimbrough argument is a rabbit hole not worth exploring – along with Brandon Stone, Howard should feel secure with his three patrolmen policing the paint.
Bottom Line: It feels odd over-indexing this preview on defense, but that’s what kept the Explorers afloat last season. Howard still has a steep hill to climb in bringing in the caliber and mold of player needed to construct a Villanova Lite offense, but he’s making progress. Anwar Gill (Montverde Academy product) and Tegra Izay (3-star recruit from Canada) each carry strong pedigree, while hometown hero Jhamir Brickus surpassed Rip Hamilton on Coatesville Area High School’s all-time scoring list. The Explorers’ offense may need an offensive jolt from one of these rookies but make no mistake about it – this team will still hang its hat on defense.
13. Saint Joseph's
Key Returners: Rahmir Moore, Ryan Daly, Cameron Brown, Taylor Funk, Anthony Longpre, Myles Douglas
Key Losses: Lorenzo Edwards, Toliver Freeman
Key Newcomers: Greg Foster Jr. (Gonzaga), Dahmir Bishop (Xavier)**, Jadrian Tracey, Jordan Hall
**eligible 2nd semester
Lineup:
Outlook: Let’s just say Billy Lange’s inaugural season on Hawk Hill could’ve gone better…
Patience with the new regime is necessary, but it’s hard to look away from last season’s blazing inferno of a car crash. For starters, the Hawks’ 6-26 record was the worst in program history – that’s right, no St. Joe’s team has ever finished with a win percentage under 20%.
As disastrous as Lange’s opening year was, it’s only fair that we mention the notable injuries that derailed what looked like a promising start. Before Taylor Funk’s busted right hand put him on the shelf eight games into the season, the young Hawks beat UConn on the road – that’s correct, the same team that got boat raced by St. Francis PA and Lafayette at home less than a month later.
It was just that kind of year for St. Joe’s. Billy Lange could’ve played it safe. He could’ve put speed bumps on his torrent offensive tempo. He could’ve watered down his 3-point trigger happy offensive style. Instead, he said, screw that. If the Hawks were going down, they were going down gunnin’…
Lange quickly realized that the genius behind his Jay Wright and NBA influenced run-and-gun offense was only as smart as the personnel executing it. The Hawks hoisted triples like they were playing a 40-minute 3-point contest. There was a small problem here – none of them fell.
Like the big banks in the ‘08 financial crisis, the Hawks recklessly levered up on 3s, only to come crashing down when they didn’t hit. To illustrate just how badly St. Joe’s was burned by ‘heave at all costs’ mentality, I derived my own metric: “Long Ball Letdown”. It’s a working title, but I’m satisfied with the current placeholder (LBL for short). The purpose is simple: to identify those teams who chucked and bricked the most trey balls last year. By taking every team’s 3-point attempt rate and subtracting its 3-point field goal percentage, we arrive at the LBL. For simplicity, I calculated this based on KenPom’s overall ranks, as opposed to the raw numbers.
It’s not that the Hawks’ ice-cold shooting was a function of poor shot selection. Per dribblehandoff.com’s shot selection metrics, the Hawks graded out as 144th nationally – essentially, right around average. Ryan Daly, aptly dubbed the Fire Hydrant by the Athletic’s very own Brendan Quinn, is a crafty creator as the head of the snake. He’s got a nose for the lane, routinely knifing his way into the paint, which forces off-ball defenders to leave shooters lurking from long distance.
The issue is that when Daly fed those shooters open looks, they didn’t capitalize. They key to unlocking the brilliance of Lange’s offense is a bevy of versatility shooters and slashers. Rahmir Moore and Cameron Brown are the first wave of these prototypes, but neither shot it at an efficient clip last year. Stripping Funk from the lineup poured gasoline on this fire and fellow inverse forward Anthony Longpre couldn’t shake a shooting slump of his own last season.
Optimistic projections for a substantial turnaround in 2021 must start with a robust opening argument for why the Hawks will shoot it better this season. The frost-bitten Hawks somehow got worse in conference play, shooting 28.4% as team from behind the arc against A-10 foes (by far the worst in the league). Not great, considering that 3s accounted for nearly half of all the Hawks’ attempts. Gonzaga import Greg Foster is an excellent creator and passer, much like Daly, but they’ll need reliable shooters to emerge around them.
St. Joe’s failed to compensate on defensive end, where they made no one uncomfortable last season. Lange abruptly threw zone to the wind, which exposed this pedestrian crop of athletes in isolation man-to-man situations. Guys like Douglas and Longpre were hung out to dry in tough matchups and there was a clear lack of connectivity as a defensive unit. The loss of Lorenzo Edwards won’t help matters, the Hawks’ best rim protector last season.
Now, Longpre likely becomes the de facto center, an uneasy proposition given his shortcomings at the 5 last year. Longpre was exposed in the Philly-5 matchups last season: Nova torched him with more fleet of foot forwards, while Temple simply scored over him or through him inside (specifically Jake Forrester). Offensively, Longpre has value as an inverse forward and floor spacer, but he’s a major crack in the defensive armor.
Bottom Line: Defensive worries notwithstanding, the Hawks *should* benefit from the variance monster working in their favor this season. There’s just no way they shoot as poorly as they did a year ago, especially with Funk back in the fold. Improvement is inevitable, but until Lange proves he can concoct a competent defense, I see no reason why St. Joe’s moves any higher in the standings.
Tier 4
14. Fordham
Key Returners: Josh Navarro*, Jalen Cobb, Ty Perry, Chuba Ohams, Onyi Eyisi, Ivan Raut
Key Losses: Erten Gazi, Antwon Portley
Key Newcomers: Julian Dozier
*went by Josh Colon last season
Lineup:
Outlook: In the unfair and inequitable world of college basketball, injuries ransack hundreds of teams on an annual basis. But for the underprivileged bottom-feeders like Fordham, when the injuries pile up, the talent inequity gap is magnified.
To keep up with the Joneses in a fiercely competitive A-10, the Rams can’t afford another run of bad luck like last year. Here’s a quick bulleted list of the absences:
Antwon Portley, starting point guard: 7 games missed
Erten Gazi, starting shooting guard: 9 games missed
Chuba Ohams, starting forward: 18 games missed
Onyi Eyisi, starting forward: 10 games missed
Ivan Raut, part-time starting wing: 7 games missed
Chris Austin, part-time starting guard: 7 games missed
Jeff Neubauer didn’t sign up for this. He deserved better. But the evil mastermind who forged the signature strapped the Rams to a 5-month virtual reality horror ride. Throughout the entire season, only six teams in America were more offensively challenged than Fordham last year on an adjusted offensive efficiency basis. And when you zoom in on conference games only, the Rams’ offense begins to look even spookier. In the KenPom era, Fordham’s 85.2 points per 100 possessions in conference play graded out as the worst mark in Atlantic-10 history (read: since 2002).
There’s nowhere to go but up but with Antwon Portley departing, the Rams’ best perimeter creator, it’s a steep hill to climb in the Bronx. Betting on a lackluster incumbent backcourt, Josh Navarro and Jalen Cobb, is the safe route, but Neubauer might be wise to roll the dice with freshman Julian Dozier and / or sophomore Chris Austin at the two guard spots. The stocky Ty Perry is the Rams’ only viable shot-maker, so his spot in the rotation is solidified, but Portley was instrumental in feeding him and Raut for open looks last year.
The only hope for resurrection lies in the frontline, where Neubauer returns a sneaky strong stable of athletes. Ohams, Eyisi and Joel Soriano are elastic leapers who can run the floor like gazelles, but the Rams showed no interest in chasing down misses on the offensive end last year. Shooting is virtually non-existent on this roster, so releasing this athletic trio on the glass might be the best remedy for the shooting shortage.
Bottom Line: Before bashing the Rams to no end, let’s give credit where credit is due. Fordham held their own on the defensive end last year, and with a decent crop of long athletes up front, the Rams could be a thorn in the side of A-10 foes again. On offense, they just need to try to steal points in transition and on the boards, rather than hoping to score on first-shot offense through methodical half court sets. There are just no adept creators on the perimeter and the bigs are still erratic in the half-court, though rapidly improving.