-Jim Root
Key Returners: Joel Ayayi, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, Anton Watson
Key Losses: Filip Petrusev (pro), Killian Tillie, Ryan Woolridge, Admon Gilder
Key Newcomers: Jalen Suggs, Julian Strawther, Dominick Harris, Oumar Ballo (redshirt), Aaron Cook (Southern Illinois)
Lineup:
Outlook: After making the national title game in 2017, Mark Few and Gonzaga finally started to quiet even the unpleasantly loud minority who insisted Gonzaga couldn’t cut it on the big stage. Few has followed that up with three more incredible years, and the Bulldogs actually appear to be elevating to another, even more elite tier compared to just “always make the tournament, be a Sweet 16/Elite Eight threat.” Prior to 2017, Few had four KenPom top 10 finishes in 17 years; in the last four seasons, the Bulldogs have finished 1st, 10th, 2nd, and 2nd, indicative of that new leap into the very top reaches of the college hoops stratosphere. Gonzaga’s recruiting has similarly evolved, with Few landing the program’s first two top-15 classes in the past two years, including its best-ever recruit this season in 5-star Jalen Suggs. The result is 3MW’s unanimous #1 team and the depth to withstand losing the WCC’s Player of the Year, Filip Petrusev, to the professional ranks.
Gonzaga has buttered its bread on the offensive end recently, leading the country in KenPom’s AdjOE in back-to-back seasons in 2019 and 2020. Perhaps not coincidentally, they were also Few’s fastest teams since arriving in Spokane, pushing the ball down the defense’s throat with multiple ball-handlers, agile bigs, and an array of capable perimeter shooters. Per Hoop-Math, the Zags ranked 2nd nationally in percentage of shots that occurred in transition, evidencing this desire to get shots early.
Joel Ayayi, Suggs, fellow freshman Dominick Harris and SIU grad transfer Aaron Cook will be tasked with maintaining the pace, a duty that should fit their skills just fine. Ayayi is speedy and seasoned, having emerged into an outstanding creator last year, and Suggs is constantly in attack mode. Both have excelled in international duty (Ayayi for his native France, Suggs for the US), and their mix of skill and size (both 6’5) will make them a devastating tandem. Harris and Cook give Few more perimeter depth than he had last year, although they may end up battling for minutes if he chooses to keep a short leash again.
It wasn’t just the guards, though – the transition attack was especially deadly because of the Zag bigs. The departed Petrusev would constantly beat opponents down the floor and/or seal early in the secondary break, providing a consistent source of easy points. Drew Timme ascends into that role this season, and his ruthlessly efficient freshman campaign indicates that he could replicate Petrusev’s outstanding production. Expect to see a lot more of this – Timme boxes out and then beelines to the rim:
Once things slow to the half court, Timme and the other bigs become a key focal point again. Few runs a ton of high-low with his big men, turning the floor into a four-out look despite not really having four shooters on the court (unless Killian Tillie was playing). The Timme-Petrusev combo worked just fine last year, giving some proof of concept that Few’s system works with two non-shooters. That bodes well for Timme being paired with Anton Watson or Oumar Ballo, likely the other two big men in the rotation. Plus, as great as Petrusev was in the post last year, Timme was even better (1.09 PPP, 91st percentile), and the high-energy sophomore should only get better with more time in Spokane. Here’s a pretty example of the tic-tac-toe high-low passing creating an easy lay-up for Timme:
Make no mistake, though – he’s not just a “seal and score” guy, because Timme has plenty of moves on the block, as well. Despite coming off the bench last season, Timme is a legitimate candidate to follow in his predecessor’s footsteps as WCC Player of the Year and a sneaky All-American pick, as well.
Watson’s 2019-20 season was cut short by injury, but he’s a terrific finisher inside, and he showed a ton of promise as a passer early on (15 assists in his first six games). And speaking of international experience, Ballo was one of the most dominant forces at 2019’s FIBA U19 World Cup, averaging 17.6 PPG and 11.8 RPG despite being 16 years old at the time of the event. He has a non-stop motor and is quite agile for his size, making him the perfect third big to come in and punish tired starters or overmatched backups. Plus, the track record of players who have redshirted under Few is littered with stunning improvements. Pavel Zakharov, a touted Russian sophomore, could find it difficult to earn playing time behind such a loaded group, but Gonzaga’s 4th big might still be a top 10 post player in the WCC.
The other option is to downsize and play Corey Kispert as a small-ball four. Few didn’t break that emergency glass often last year, but when he did, the Zags promptly napalmed their poor opponents:
Kispert’s game has evolved every year, and last season he underwent the rare transformation of raising his usage considerably while also taking a leap in efficiency. He put the ball on the floor more, using his linebacker-esque frame to outmuscle smaller guards, and his pure perimeter stroke scorched the nets to the tune of 43.8% from downtown. Martynas Arlauskas and another top 100 freshman, Julian Strawther, will battle for minutes on the wing, though Few will also play some three-guard lineups from the Cook, Harris, Suggs, Ayayi group.
Ayayi’s evolution has been one of Few’s best development jobs. Still just 20 years old until March 2021, the redshirt junior went from a non-shooter to a solid threat last year (34.5%), and his decision-making on the ball evolved quite a bit, too. After coming off the bench for the first nine games, he played his way into the starting lineup and stayed there the rest of the way (aside from Senior Night). Suggs, a similarly elite prospect on the football field at quarterback, has outstanding bounce to his game and an unwavering confidence; Few will simply need to rein his decision-making at times. Finally, Cook missed most of last year with an injury, but he should ably slide into the honorary Ryan Woolridge/Geno Crandall grad transfer ball-handler role.
If there are any concerns with this roster, it’s on the defensive end, where Gonzaga finished a mildly disappointing 43rd in AdjDE last season. As most Few teams do, the Bulldogs dominated the glass and never fouled, but the 2P% defense fell off sharply from its usually elite levels down to 91st, the lowest such ranking since 2012. To underscore how big of a drop that was: Gonzaga’s second-lowest 2P% rank since then was 28th. For all of his strengths as a scorer, Petrusev was not much of a rim protector, so playing more Timme and Ballo at center could provide a boost; Ballo led the FIBA U19 event in blocks per game by a decent margin. Tillie is a huge loss, though:
Note: only includes games in which Tillie played
He was the defensive coordinator on the court, directing traffic and defending as many as five positions effectively when needed, and his impact as a leader on this end will be missed.
Fortunately, Watson is an extremely disruptive defender, as well, and last year’s defense would have been boosted had he stayed healthy. Suggs, Ayayi, and Kispert form an athletic and long backcourt, and Kispert has consistently showed up as a wing stopper thanks to his considerable strength. There’s upside on this end, to be sure, but getting the unit to gel could take time.
Bottom Line: Few was crushed to see his seniors lose the chance to make a national title run last year – especially Killian Tillie, who had battled through a multitude of injuries in his career. Fortunately for Few, he has another great shot at an extended postseason stay this year, parlaying an outstanding blend of experience, NBA talent, and versatility into our preseason title favorite. Replacing Tillie’s impact on both ends as a shooter and cerebral communicator will be a challenge, and Petrusev might have returned were it not for COVID-19’s cloud of uncertainty, but Few’s recent recruiting wins make those losses surmountable. The Zags stand a tier or three above everyone else in the WCC, and they may also stand alone atop the country when all is said and done.