-Jim Root
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Garrison Brooks, Sr., North Carolina
Coach of the Year: Tony Bennett, Virginia
Newcomer of the Year: Jalen Johnson, Fr., Duke
Freshman of the Year: Jalen Johnson, Duke
Tier 1
1. Virginia
See full preview here: #7 in our Top-40 countdown
2. Duke
See full preview here: #4 in our Top-40 countdown
Note: I voted Duke one spot higher in our national poll, but I’m picking Virginia to win the league. Tony Bennett’s system is more proven over the course of ACC play, while Duke’s young rosters often take too many iffy road losses to win the title. I think the Blue Devils will be better/have a higher ceiling, but they won’t be consistent enough to beat out UVa. See 2015 for prior reference of that occurring.
Tier 2
3. North Carolina
See full preview here: #14 in our Top-40 countdown
4. Louisville
See full preview here: #15 in our Top-40 countdown
5. Florida State
See full preview here: #20 in our Top-40 countdown
Tier 3
6. Miami (FL)
Key Returners: Chris Lykes, Kam McGusty, Isaiah Wong, Harlond Beverly, Rodney Miller, Sam Waardenburg
Key Losses: Dejan Vasiljevic
Key Newcomers: Nysier Brooks (Cincinnati), Earl Timberlake, Matt Cross
Lineup:
*** - Olaniyi is expected to sit out this season after transferring from Stony Brook. He would need a waiver to play right away.
Outlook: Coming off two seasons in which the Hurricanes combined to go just 29-34 overall, 12-26 in the ACC, projecting them back in the NCAA Tournament may feel a tad optimistic. The defense has ranked outside the top 100 (per KenPom) in both seasons, and the offense hasn’t been much better. However, Jim Larranaga brings in a couple key new pieces to pair with a more experienced – and hopefully, healthy – roster, spurring some optimism from the Weave (well, two-thirds of it, at least).
It’s nearly impossible get an accurate evaluation of last year’s team; the Hurricanes were essentially never full strength. Florida transfer Keith Stone, the team’s only real versatile forward option, missed the season’s first seven games and got hurt again in January. As he was finally ramping up to full strength in February, both Chris Lykes and Kam McGusty, arguably the team’s best two players to that point, both picked up knocks and missed four games. Both were ever-present on the ‘Canes’ injury report for the remainder of the year, never truly regaining the full form, and Larranaga was left to juggle a shaky rotation that faltered often, even against a down ACC.
The injuries to Lykes and McGusty did have one positive side effect: they opened the door for Isaiah Wong’s explosion down the stretch. Both veterans missed the January 25th game against UNC, and Wong stepped into the starting lineup and immediately went on a tear, emerging from rotational afterthought to go-to scorer for the next month. He even entered the hallowed 50/40/90 shooting splits territory before hitting a wall in the final two weeks:
It’s highly unlikely he’ll be that efficient, but Wong showed clear all-conference potential in that stretch, buoying the optimism as he enters year two.
Fellow rising sophomore Harlond Beverly did not respond to the increased playing time in the same way, but he’s a high-level athlete with the tools to be a lockdown defender. He was a nightmare on the offensive end in his first year, though, so leaving the scoring to the other guards would serve him well. Miami also adds an outstanding piece in Earl Timberlake, a top-30 player by RSCI. The well-built lefty has excellent ball skills for his size (6’6, 215 lbs.), and his developing perimeter stroke will make him a matchup problem. His strength and rebounding ability gives Larranaga the flexibility to play an extremely versatile lineup with Timberlake as a small-ball four, a luxury the 2019-20 team simply did not have.
Perimeter production is especially important for a Larranaga team given how much pick-and-roll he runs, relying on his guards to get into gaps and giving them the freedom to create for themselves. Lykes and McGusty were one of the country’s best duos at this last year, ranking in the 94th and 91st percentiles in points per possession (PPP) as PnR ball-handlers. The diminutive Lykes is devastatingly quick, and although he does live in the mid-range, he’s the rare player who makes enough (52%, per Synergy) to do it efficiently. With his speed, his ability to get wherever he wants on the court makes him a nightmare to corral – few players can split their own team’s double-ball screen:
Lykes is obviously limited on the defensive end due to his size, though he does work to compensate for it via being a pesky gnat when guarding the ball. Interestingly, the Miami defense was actually markedly better with Lykes on the court, allowing 0.97 PPP compared to 1.06 PPP when he sat (per Hoop Lens), largely thanks to an increase in forced turnovers.
The true downfall of the defense was not the size of its point guard; rather, it was a total inability to end defensive possessions with a rebound and protect the rim. Cleaning the glass has been a problem for two years now, with the ‘Canes ranking 324th and 246th in defensive rebound rate over that span, by far the two worst marks of Larranaga’s tenure. The addition of massive Cincinnati transfer Nysier Brooks should help both weaknesses immensely; schooled in the Mick Cronin tenets of defense, Brooks is a physical specimen and an intimidating rim protector. He’ll evoke memories of former Miami big Tonye Jekiri in the paint.
Fellow seniors Rodney Miller and Sam Waardenburg are fundamentally different players, unable to anchor the defense in the same way, and Miller will likely be relegated to a reserve role. Waardenburg can stretch defenses out a little bit, giving him a chance to earn minutes at the four, but the development of sophomore Anthony Walker and the readiness of freshman (and fellow Brewster Academy product) Matt Cross will be vital for the offense. Both are more versatile defensively, something Miami desperately needed last year as Stone was dealing with injury. Cross’ Brewster squad was ridiculously loaded (Kentucky’s Terrence Clarke, Syracuse’s Kadary Richmond, BC’s DeMarr Langford, Minnesota’s Jamal Mashburn Jr., Maryland’s Marcus Dockery, UMass’ Javohn Garcia…), giving him the rare combination of being a consensus top-100 recruit that also knows how to be a complementary role player right off the bat.
Bottom Line: Health will be the key factor for Miami. If key players continue to miss stretches and/or play on a limited basis, the ‘Canes will struggle again. Given the talent on the roster (six top 100 recruits) and Jim Larranaga’s strong track record with experienced teams, though, Miami has the ability to rise back into the NCAA Tournament picture. Stabilizing the defense will be vital, and the continued development of Wong and Beverly looms large, but we’ll cling to the hope of seeing the 5’7 Lykes playing relevant games in March once again.
7. Virginia Tech
Key Returners: Tyrece Radford, Nahiem Alleyne, Jalen Cone, Wabissa Bede, Hunter Cattoor
Key Losses: Landers Nolley (transfer), P.J. Horne (transfer), Isaiah Wilkins (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Keve Aluma (Wofford), Justyn Mutts (Delaware), Cordell Pemsl (Iowa), Joe Bamisile, Darius Maddox, David N’Guessan
Lineup:
Outlook: Considering the low expectations surrounding Mike Young’s first year in Blacksburg, one would have to call last year a resounding success, despite the 7-13 league record. The Hokies came out of the gates on fire, winning at Clemson to start the season and eventually getting to 6-0 with a Maui win over preseason #1 Michigan State. Young had his green roster at 14-5 (5-3) before the wheels came off, going just 2-11 for the remainder of the year, but there’s still plenty to build on for a roster that was gutted when Young arrived.
Truthfully, it should come as no surprise that one of the youngest (350th in experience, per KenPom) and smallest (344th in average height) teams in the entire country faded badly during the rigors of ACC play. The deterioration of Landers Nolley’s efficiency was a huge part of why:
Nolley is now a Memphis Tiger, so the Hokies will move on without the highest-usage player in the ACC (34.0% of possessions while on the court in league play).
Young still has a multitude of offensive weapons on the roster, and his intricate motion system of off-ball screens and cuts does not necessarily rely on a single star scorer (though guys like Fletcher Magee and Karl Cochran had huge years at Wofford). What Young’s offense does need is shooters, and this Hokie roster is flush with them. Hunter Cattoor is something of a “Magee Lite,” and Nahiem Alleyne proved to be an effective perimeter threat, too. Kansas State transfer Cartier Diarra was miscast as a primary offensive option as a junior, but in a complementary role his first two seasons, he shot 61/158 (38.6%) from deep, and he also brings some size and slashing ability. Two top-100 freshmen, Joe Bamisile and Darius Maddox, can also score, further adding to Young’s stockpile of weapons.
The best shooter on the roster, though, is Jalen Cone, the team’s incendiary 6th man. Cone shot a scorching 45.7% from downtown, maintaining his efficiency even as his minutes shot up in conference play. Like Magee, his ability to shoot on the move makes him an ideal fit for Young’s motion sets:
Cone reclassified from the 2020 high school class, and his effectiveness in year one despite being a year younger is incredibly encouraging. The next step is finding a way to score inside the arc; he was a disastrous 16/56 (28.6%) from two-point range. Cone may continue his role as a microwave bench scorer due to the presence of senior point guard Wabissa Bede, a tremendous passer who consistently gets where he wants on the court thanks to his strength and handles. His perimeter jumper vanished last year, though, and defenses often rightfully ignored him if he didn’t have the ball.
Last year’s team was crippled by not having a true big man outside of raw freshman John Ojiako, instead playing Nolley and the similarly-departed PJ Horne in the frontcourt. Two transfers should solve that problem: Keve Aluma, who followed Young from Wofford, and Cordell Pemsl, Iowa grad transfer, give the Hokies two more big bodies in the paint to supplement Ojiako’s development. Young also likes to be able to play through the post at times (Cam Jackson was a major fulcrum for the Terriers), so having someone familiar with the offense (Aluma) and a skilled interior scorer (Pemsl) opens up more avenues to score. Young also secured a commitment from mega-versatile Justyn Mutts, who will further boost the team’s rebounding and be another frontcourt guy that can facilitate from the top of the key.
The final key piece is Tyrece Radford, a thoroughly unique player whose combination of rebounding prowess, finishing ability, and lack of height (6’1) breaks most positional algorithms. He’s a skilled player and a solid athlete, and his two-way effectiveness helped key the defense.
The Hokies’ lack of size showed up on that end as well, though. Opponents shot 63.3% at the rim when Ojiako was on the bench (which was most of the time), per Hoop Explorer, roughly a bottom-50 rate in the country. The trickle-down effect of that resulted in Young playing an extremely conservative, packed-in man-to-man to prevent opposing offenses from being a lay-up line. Neither Aluma nor Pemsl is a high-level shot-blocker, but simply having more height around the basket should allow Virginia Tech to play more aggressively on the perimeter.
Given the depth in the backcourt, Young will likely play a ton of four-guard lineups. Fortunately, Radford’s rebounding ability makes that more tenable on the glass, and Bamisile is an extremely long 6’5 wing as well. Both guys should be impactful defenders, and Diarra/Bede should be able to harass opposing ball-handlers. Witht he addition of Mutts, Young can play more conventional two-big lineups, and freshman David N’Guessan could provide some minutes as well.
Bottom Line: After last season’s strong start and impressive work on the recruiting trail, Young has ingratiated himself to the Hokie fanbase already. With a roster more ready for ACC competition and a year of experience for last year’s freshman class, expectations have inched up in year two. The offense should be formidable, and with Aluma, Pemsl, and Ojiako in the paint, the interior defense will be significantly better as well. The NCAA Tournament is probably an optimistic expectation, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
8. Clemson
Key Returners: Aamir Simms, Al-Amir Dawes, John Newman III, Clyde Trapp, Hunter Tyson, Jonathan Baehre (injury), Chase Hunter (injury), Alex Hemenway
Key Losses: Tevin Mack, Curran Scott
Key Newcomers: Nick Honor (Fordham), P.J. Hall, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Lynn Kidd
Lineup:
Outlook: After a four-year stretch that appeared to be a clear upturn in the Clemson hoops trajectory under Brad Brownell (finished in KenPom’s top 45 all four years), the Tigers took a step back in 2020, fading to a meager 16-15 (9-11) finish in a watered-down ACC. Like the rest of the league, the Tigers whiffed on their biggest non-conference opportunities, resulting in a league slate where there just weren’t enough quality wins to go around.
Brownell’s had a clear team pattern throughout his career of his defenses far outpacing his offenses. Predominantly a half court man-to-man guy on D, the Tigers have had very little problem being ACC-caliber on that end, but scoring points has been another issue:
If this Clemson team is to achieve just the third NCAA Tournament bid in Brownell’s 11 seasons at the helm, the offense needs to see major progress.
Everything starts with Aamir Simms, the Tigers’ ultra-versatile forward. His skill with the ball in his hands allowed Brownell to play through his big man, be it in the post or as a roll man in pick-and-roll situations. Despite often matching up against opposing centers, Simms found ways to score inside, and his perimeter shooting (40%) opened up defenses, particularly as a pick-and-pop guy against drop coverage:
Simms was equally adept passing out of the short roll when defenses rotated hard:
He led the team in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks, and given all that he does for Clemson, he’s a dark horse Player of the Year candidate if the team climbs into the top five or so of the ACC.
Still, mostly running four perimeter players around Simms at center crippled the Tigers’ ability to offensive rebound (307th nationally, by rate) and get to the free throw line (270th in free throw rate). Three additions should play a role in correcting this: freshmen PJ Hall, Lynn Kidd, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper and UNC Asheville transfer Jonathan Baehre, who missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL. Hall, a borderline top-50 recruit, could be the difference-maker – his size and skill allow him to be interchangeable with Simms, and although he’s not a top-shelf athlete, he can help on the glass and alter shots at the rim. Baehre was similarly versatile at Asheville, but he’s a question mark coming off the injury and stepping way up in competition. Prosper and Kidd are the bouncy athletes of the group – they’ll make more of an impact on defense, at least initially, though they can both hit an open three if allowed. Kidd may be a candidate to redshirt after reclassifying from the class of 2021 in late July.
Perhaps the most glaring offensive issue, though, was running an offense centered around the three-pointer and not being able to make any. Clemson ranked 19th nationally in 3PA rate but just 267th in 3P%, and shooters like Al-Amir Dawes (31.8%), John Newman (30.3%), Clyde Trapp (26.2%), and Hunter Tyson (32.1%) simply need to be better. Fortunately, two actively harmful shooters in Tevin Mack and Curran Scott both graduated, and more reps for the scorching Alex Hemenway will benefit the team’s spacing, as well.
The last key for the offense is more efficient play from the point guard spot. Dawes, a heralded recruit from The Patrick School in New Jersey, had the typical struggles of a freshman lead guard. He flashed brilliance – his game-winner against Florida State was a season highlight – but he was a nightmare as a pick-and-roll finisher (20th percentile nationally, per Synergy) and turned it over too often. He may get moved off the ball (or to the bench) if Fordham transfer Nick Honor proves ready to take control of the offense. Honor was impressive in his first year against A-10 competition, and after a year of sitting out, he should be ready for the step up to the ACC.
The defense should be the constant. Brownell emphasizes getting back in transition, taking away early buckets for opponents and forcing them into long possessions (average possession length of 18.4 seconds, 340th in the country). The Tigers squeeze the paint, forcing teams to take long jumpers late in the shot clock, and they can be vulnerable to hot shooting performances from the opponent. Still, the conservative approach allows them to lock down the glass, take away rim opportunities, and avoid fouling. The perimeter has some length with Newman and Trapp, but Hemenway is a liability on this end. Chase Hunter, another former top-100 recruit, had his 2019-20 season cut short by injury, but he could make an impact with his strength and quickness.
Bottom Line: With so many injuries hitting the team last year, Brownell enters the year with a lot of mouths to feed; as many as 12 guys may feel deserving of playing time, if healthy. It’s not the worst problem to have, though, and the competition in practice will be fierce. Despite the down year last season, Clemson still pulled huge home wins against FSU, Duke, and Louisville (along with winning at UNC for the first time ever), and with Simms and others back, there should be a clear expectation of improvement. Whether that will be enough to keep Brownell’s seat comfortably cool will depend on how well he pieces together his deep rotation.
9. Syracuse
Key Returners: Joe Girard, Buddy Boeheim, Marek Dolezaj, Bourama Sidibe, Quincy Guerrier
Key Losses: Elijah Hughes (pro)
Key Newcomers: Alan Griffin (Illinois), Kadary Richmond, Woody Newton, Frank Anselem
Lineup:
Outlook: Another of the ACC teams that never quite made its way onto the bubble due to falling short in big non-conference games, Syracuse was actually better than its (lack of a) resume indicated last season (51st in KenPom, 44th in T-Rank, 48th at Haslametrics). The Orange return five of the six relevant rotation players from that sneaky-decent squad, and although Elijah Hughes was the clear centerpiece of that team, the pieces are here for Jim Boeheim to successfully play his preferred style on each end. Additionally, and perhaps just as importantly, the conference as a whole should be much better – going 10-10 in last year’s ACC was barely useful, but in a typical season, that might be enough to sneak the Orange into the NCAA field.
Year in and year out, Syracuse will always have a clear defensive identity as long as Jim Boeheim is at the helm. He remains one of the few coaches steadfastly playing zone; the Orange ranked 1st in the entire country in zone usage at 94.5% of possessions. The 2-3 is synonymous with Boeheim (and his assistants that have taken head jobs throughout the country), and playing that zone dictates the way offenses have to play. Opponents’ Synergy play type breakdown paints a very clear picture on what kind of shots are available:
Foes are forced to make jumpers to score; even with the zone starting to spread out, Syracuse ranked 351st in defensive 3PA rate. In Hughes and Marek Dolezaj, the zone often had plenty of length on the wings, but a lack of quickness at the top of the key made it difficult to challenge shots the same way as when, say, Frank Howard and Tyus Battle were in those spots. The backcourt had a decidedly offensive tilt to it, and that was a big reason why last year’s defense graded out as Boeheim’s second-worst in the KenPom era.
The typical problems on the defensive glass persisted (331st in defensive rebound rate), and they were exacerbated by a decline in turnovers and effectiveness at the rim. Dolezaj, Bourama Sidibe, and Quincy Guerrier are all solid shot-blockers individually, but none is the caliber of human eraser that 7’2 Pascal Chukwu was. As a result, foes shot 66.0% at the rim, a drastic rise from last year’s strong rate:
The zone alignment inherently mitigates chances at the rim (5th-lowest attempt rate), but the increased efficiency once there was a killer.
That lack of shot attempts at the rim is a primary weakness of the offense. The Orange ranked 351st in percentage of shots taken at the rim, per Hoop Math, instead becoming a team almost wholly reliant on jump shots. With shooters like Joe Girard, Buddy Boeheim, and Illinois transfer Alan Griffin, that’s not necessarily a bad thing – those three are all knockdown threats with deep range and quick triggers. They combined to make 214 triples last year at 36.1%, and if all three are on the court at the same time, (Jim) Boeheim’s system of isolation (mostly for Girard) and running the other two off screens should open the floor up considerably.
Girard’s isolation scoring will be pivotal, especially considering how much the attack relied on Elijah Hughes to create. Hughes ranked in the 70th percentile nationally in iso efficiency on a high volume, and though Girard was far from that solid mark (28th percentile), he was a freshman guard taking a gargantuan step up in competition from his high school days in northeastern New York.
Perhaps most importantly, Girard has confidence oozing out of his ears, and he believes he can score every time he touches the ball. This makes him a joy to watch, and he’s as likely as any player in the country to become the next Jimmer Fredette with his ability to throw in absurd shots from all corners of the Carrier Dome.
The Orange also get quite a bit of offense via second shots, as Dolezaj, Guerrier, and Sidibe are maximum effort glass cleaners at all times. Sidibe ranked 3rd in the entire ACC in offensive rebound rate during conference games, and the physical Guerrier wasn’t far behind (9th). Guerrier underwent surgery on a painful groin injury during the offseason, so he should be even better after playing through the pain last season (assuming he’s fully recovered from the surgery). Dolezaj excels at picking out shooters after grabbing a board, leading to many Girard and (Buddy) Boeheim triples as defenses scramble, and Griffin will certainly benefit from this, as well.
With Griffin having received his waiver, that will almost fully seal up the rotation. Boeheim never goes deep into his bench; Syracuse has ranked 349th (2020), 256th (2019) and 351st (2018) in bench minutes the past three years, and even that 2019 team rarely went past seven guys. Kadary Richmond should provide some wing depth (and Jon Rothstein is feeding the Richmond hype machine), but the reserve bigs like Robert Braswell, Jesse Edwards, and freshmen Woody Newton and Frank Anselem will be fighting for minutes scraps.
Bottom Line: With so many of the same players back, Syracuse should once again be slanted towards the offensive end of the court, and the explosive trio of Girard, (Buddy) Boeheim, and Griffin will make the Orange a delight to watch. To elevate into the NCAA Tournament picture, the defense needs to catch up, particularly in the paint, and (Jim) Boeheim’s track record suggests improvement is on the way. In what has now become an annual tradition, the most likely scenario for the Orange is living right on the bubble.
10. NC State
Key Returners: DJ Funderburk, Devon Daniels, Jericole Hellems, Braxton Beverly, Manny Bates
Key Losses: Markell Johnson, C.J. Bryce, Pat Andree
Key Newcomers: Cam Hayes, Thomas Allen (Nebraska), Shakeel Moore, Dereon Seabron (redshirt), Nick Farrar, Jaylon Gibson, Ebenezer Dowuona
Lineup:
Outlook: Coming off two seasons at UNC Wilmington that featured a 54-14 cumulative record and back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances, Kevin Keatts seemed like a no-brainer home run local hire for NC State. He’s struggled to build significant momentum in Raleigh, and while his overall record is solid (three 20+ win seasons, 64.4% winning percentage), he’s a perfectly average 19-19 in the ACC over the last two years. The Wolfpack claimed huge wins last year (whipped Duke by 20, beat Wisconsin, won at Virginia), but mixed in too many frustrating losses (at Boston College, got swept by UNC’s worst team in two decades). Avoiding those letdown losses will be key to finding more forward momentum.
Like many a mid-major coach that excels with a pressure-oriented defense, Keatts has struggled to construct an ACC-caliber unit on that end, as the turnovers have declined against power conference guards while fouling has remained an issue. The Wolfpack did have success when extending full court last year (22nd percentile in PPP on press possessions), but opponents simply don’t make as many mistakes at this level.
The benefits of the pressure are more than just turnovers, though. Jump shooters are consistently uncomfortable against the Wolfpack, and the extended defense runs most opponents off the line (top 50 all three Keatts seasons in defensive 3PA rate). That forces them to the rim, where DJ Funderburk and Manny Bates await. Bates, a human pogo stick despite standing 6’11, actually led the entire country in block rate (16.0%), and he amped up the defense when on the floor:
The data suggests that Keatts is essentially making a choice with his center rotation: emphasize offense with Funderburk thanks to his skill on the block and tremendous finishing ability, or lock down on D as Bates swallows anything and everything in the paint. According to hoop-explorer.com, foes shot just 50.9% at the rim when Bates was on the court, which would be a top-10 rate if sustained over all minutes.
Unfortunately, a major side effect of this rim protection has been abysmal defensive rebounding. Both Funderburk and Bates are frequently caught out of position while gambling for highlight reel blocks, and forward Jericole Hellems is apparently allergic to rebounding. Hellems has physical tools, but someone of his size (6’7) and gifts only grabbing 9.0% of defensive rebounds is like a restaurant chef just serving microwaved Ramen packs. Freshman Nick Farrar has more bulk and aggressiveness on the glass, and he could wrestle minutes away from Hellems if he grasps the scheme quickly.
The offense has concerns as well, as the graduated Markell Johnson was the heart and soul of the attack. Johnson led the Wolfpack in usage, and he had nearly half of the team’s assists (210 of 434 team assists, 48.4%). Keatts’ spread pick-and-roll scheme relied heavily on Johnson to create, although his shooting vanished as a senior – he made 25 fewer threes despite taking the same number of attempts. Regardless, he’ll be difficult to replace; the team scored 1.04 PPP with him on the court, a respectable number, but that plummeted to 0.93 PPP without him (per Hoop Lens).
Thankfully, Keatts has no shortage of options to fill the spot. True freshman Cam Hayes is a top-70 recruit and a consummate point guard – he won’t blow you away with wild athleticism, but he’s smart as heck and knows how to run a team. He’d be a different look at this spot after Johnson was such a scoring presence, although Hayes will punish defenses who don’t pay him enough attention. Classmate Shakeel Moore is the flashier option, a lightning quick lefty who lacks size but can get anywhere he wants on the court (I have to say – he’s electric to watch). The other two options redshirted on the Wolfpack bench last year: 6’7 Dereon Seabron and Nebraska transfer Thomas Allen. Seabron would be a funky choice, but he had impressive ball skills as a senior, and he generated some buzz with his practice performances (grain of salt, as with all hyperbolic redshirt claims). Allen is smaller and a more adept perimeter shooter, and he played mostly off the ball in Lincoln alongside Glynn Watson.
Luckily, the team has two constants on the wing who should buoy the rotating tryouts at PG. Braxton Beverly is one of the most feared shooters in the ACC, and Devon Daniels is a big wing who can score via slashing with his solid frame or knocking in the occasional triple. Allen and Seabron will double as their backups, but Keatts will lean hard on his senior guards to give a calming presence next to his true freshman ball-handlers. Daniels actually ran a ton of PnR last year (and did so effectively), so he’s a security blanket if Hayes and/or Moore struggle.
Teams often gave NC State problems by going zone. It took the Wolfpack out of its preferred spread ball screen system, and the results supported that narrative: per Synergy, NC State scored 0.844 PPP against zones, compared to 0.913 PPP against man-to-man (all in the half court). Keatts still ran some ball screen action to get his guards past the first line of defense, but it resulted in a ton of mid-range shots and long floaters over size, a tough way to be efficient. Making more threes will help, and Farrar could unlock things more at the free throw line.
Bottom Line: Someone should emerge from the point guard committee to succeed Johnson, and the Wolfpack have a fearsome offense/defense duo at center. The defensive flaws may persist, though, as the Wolfpack have not been able to keep opponents off the glass or the free throw line in their current scheme. NC State has had exactly 12 losses in all three of Keatts’ seasons, and honestly, that seems like a reasonable expectation for this squad, as well, as the Wolfpack are likely headed for another bubbly campaign.
11. Georgia Tech
Key Returners: Michael Devoe, Jose Alvarado, Moses Wright, Jordan Usher, Bubba Parham
Key Losses: James Banks
Key Newcomers: Kyle Sturdivant (USC), Rodney Howard (Georgia), Saba Gigiberia, Jordan Meka, Tristan Maxwell
Lineup:
Outlook: It has now been 10 years since Georgia Tech found its way into the NCAA Tournament. The memories of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal bullying foes in the paint while Iman Shumpert roamed the perimeter are fading from view, but with nearly everyone returning from a team that battled to an 11-9 ACC finish while overcoming absences from several key players, optimism in Atlanta hasn’t been this high since the Paul Hewitt days. A shocking stat – GT has finished above .500 in ACC play just twice in the past 24 years (9-7 under Hewitt in 2003-04, and then last year’s 11-9). Twice in 24 years!
To reach the intended heights, Josh Pastner will need to do something he has yet to do in four years: have a competent offense at GT. With shot-blockers like Ben Lammers and James Banks intimidating at the rim, he’s built stout defenses, but the offense has lagged far behind in every season:
The biggest reasons for those deficiencies were present last year: shockingly sloppy ball control and ice cold three-point shooting. Turnovers were a plague, and all eight players that averaged over 13mpg had a turnover rate north of 20%. For those that don’t live in a statistics abyss, that’s extremely bad – the national team average was 18.9%. That balance of blundering makes it hard to pin the issues on anything but coaching; the Yellow Jackets as a whole simply did not value possessions highly enough. Starting guards Jose Alvarado and Michael Devoe need to set the tone, and Jordan Usher’s mysterious penchant for punting the ball into the stands
Devoe is exempt from shooting critiques, but Pastner allowed too many non-shooters to launch. Here’s a quick visual of the team’s shooting - beyond the top two guys, it got bleak quickly:
Bubba Parham shot 39.3% on 267 attempts in 2018-19 at VMI, so one would expect to see an uptick in his efficiency. The rest should probably be given a red light from beyond the arc, though. Usher in particular was a disaster on the offensive end; after becoming eligible in December, he managed a miserable 84.2 offensive rating the rest of the way, and his baffling decisions on that end often outweighed any positive contributions he made with his athleticism. Filtering for just the games Usher played in, GT’s three-guard lineups were significantly better than using Usher at SF:
Kyle Sturdivant, a second USC transfer in two years (following Usher), offers no boost in either of the problem areas, as he was an efficiency catastrophe for the Trojans. Tristan Maxwell has an uphill battle to playing time, but the opportunity is there if he can hit shots.
The offense’s outlook is shaky, so the Yellow Jackets may once again need to be carried by their defense. Pastner frequently employs a funky 1-3-1 zone (almost 38% of the time, per Synergy), and while it can be undone by patient opponents that intelligently move the ball, most foes lack the poise and/or team-wide passing ability to break it down. Plus, GT does a great job of running shooters off the three-point line, and as a result, the Jackets force an extremely high rate of low-efficiency mid-range jumpers.
A unique aspect of that 1-3-1 is where Pastner positions his players. He had Banks parked at the free throw line and fellow big man Wright under the basket:
You’ll often see a guard on the baseline, as most 1-3-1 zones ask that player to cover corner-to-corner. Wright is mobile enough to get out there if needed, though, and the wings make a point of trying to deny that pass.
Without Banks in the paint, Wright will need to step up as the team’s primary rim protector. The defense held up well when he anchored the defense last year; per Hoop Lens, the team allowed an impressive 0.91 points per possession when Wright played and Banks sat. Massive freshman Saba Gigiberia has the size to fill in, and classmate Jordan Meka is a mega-bouncy frontcourt player who should fit that baseline spot will thanks to his mobility. Georgia transfer Rodney Howard was a surprise recipient of a waiver to play immediately, and though he made little impact in Athens, the 6’10 sophomore will battle Gigiberia and Meka for minutes.
Bottom Line: Georgia Tech is a classic offseason case of optimism surrounding a lineup with a lot of returning pieces. The season-ending stretch of seven wins in nine games supports that, although it was against an iffy slate (just one Q1 win, two Q2). However, solving the offensive limitations with the same group of players could be an issue; perhaps this group of players just won’t take care of the ball and can’t shoot. There’s definitely upside, but with a lot of the conference’s middle tier improving along with them, the Yellow Jackets will need to be more than just a stout defensive team to crash the Big Dance.
12. Notre Dame
Key Returners: Prentiss Hubb, Dane Goodwin, Nate Laszewski, Juwan Durham, Robby Carmody (injury)
Key Losses: John Mooney, T.J. Gibbs, Rex Pflueger
Key Newcomers: Cormac Ryan (Stanford), Elijah Taylor, Matt Zona, Tony Sanders
Lineup:
Outlook: Another ACC team, another vanilla 2020 resume. The Irish got to 20 wins and .500 in the ACC, but in a down year for the league, that simply wasn’t enough. The Irish managed a mid-major-esque four wins against Q1 and Q2 competition (4-10 record), and their futility against quality opponents does not bode well for this year’s squad. They lose their two best players in John Mooney and TJ Gibbs, and the crop of newcomers isn’t bountiful in impact pieces.
Still, it does not feel great to be low on a Mike Brey team. In the 20 seasons since Brey took over in 2000-01, Notre Dame has ranked inside of KenPom’s top 60 in 18 of them. The two teams that did not had clear justifications for why: Jerian Grant’s academic ineligibility in 2014, and a rash of injuries in 2019 that included two season-enders (to Rex Pflueger and Robby Carmody). History indicates Notre Dame will be a top 60 team again this year, but a thorough examination of the roster leaves one feeling skeptical of that.
Without Gibbs, this is now Prentiss Hubb’s team, and it’s debatable as to whether that’s a good thing. Brey’s spread offense is often reliant on a lead guard (Grant, Demetrius Jackson, Matt Farrell) to initiate things, and Hubb’s spotty efficiency thus far in his career could sink a normally-deadly offense. Another question is who elevates into the Hubb’s role as secondary ball-handler, traditionally the grooming ground for Brey’s point guards. Carmody could help, but coming off a second straight lost season (this time to an ACL tear) makes it hard to count on him for big minutes. Big guards Dane Goodwin and Stanford transfer Cormac Ryan are capable handlers but more comfortable scoring off the ball, and Santa Clara transfer Trey Wertz will sit this season out, so an even larger burden falls on Hubb. Senior Nikola Djogo has some intriguing ball skills for his size, but he’s never been able to stick in Brey’s rotation for a variety of other reasons (primarily: he has not played well).
When the offense is humming, though, it should be a thing of beauty. Brey can spread the floor with shooters like Carmody, Goodwin, Ryan, and big man Nate Laszewski, clearing the way for pick-and-rolls with Hubb and Juwan Durham. Durham is a bouncy lob threat, and he becomes infinitely harder to deal with when off-ball defenders are afraid to leave their own men.
Brey also played through the post frequently last year, and Durham returns as a legitimate threat there, scoring in the 74th percentile per Synergy. That again opens up chances for the perimeter to get open shots or attack closeouts, another staple of the Irish attack. Freshman wing Tony Sanders won’t stretch the floor the same way as Goodwin or Ryan, but he has the length and mindset to slash against defenses who don’t seal off driving lanes.
Laszewski is the piece that could open things up for the Irish. He entered college with a reputation as a lights out shooter at 6’10, and Brey has talked about trying to get him to add weight to be able to play bigger. He’s proven to be a sufficient defensive rebounder (even when playing with a vacuum like Mooney), but the shooting simply hasn’t translated to the college level yet (82/259 from deep, 32.4%). If Notre Dame can play some stretches with Laszewski at center, the paint will be wide open for Hubb, Ryan, Goodwin, and the rest of the perimeter players to drive into.
Defensively, Brey is one of the few coaches still mixing in both zone and man-to-man in heavy doses. Both do an excellent job of forcing opponents to work in the inefficient mid-range, a trend that has become more and more extreme in recent years:
Durham’s presence as an elite shot-blocker (12th nationally in block rate) helps deter opponents from even challenging the rim. Interior depth is a question, though, as he and Laszewski are the only bigs guaranteed minutes. Freshmen Matt Zona and Elijah Taylor will compete for time as the third big, and Brey has mentioned that they’re both physically capable of competing in the ACC already. Zona has true center size, but he’s most comfortable stepping out to hit jumpers, while Taylor’s physical lefty frame makes him a more versatile defensive option.
Recently, the zone usage has been a response to the team’s lack of depth and limited guard/wing athleticism, and that will remain a concern this year. Ryan struggles a bit laterally, and though Sanders can help some, he may not see many minutes right away. Zone will also provide the benefits of protecting Durham, the team’s lone true rim protector, from foul trouble, as well as easing Hubb’s defensive responsibilities and allowing him to focus on the offensive end.
Bottom Line: This one is a tug of war between “Mike Brey with a healthy roster” and “a team that isn’t that flush with talent or depth.” A lot of Notre Dame’s upside hinges on Hubb’s ability to facilitate the offense and whether Ryan or someone else can provide more complementary creation alongside him. Even if the offense does shine, the defense may drag the team down like an anchor. I will repeat: it does not feel great to be low on a Mike Brey team, but other squads in the ACC just have more weapons, despite his consistency on the sideline.
13. Pitt
Key Returners: Xavier Johnson, Justin Champagnie, Au’Diese Toney, Terrell Brown
Key Losses: Trey McGowens (transfer), Ryan Murphy (transfer), Eric Hamilton
Key Newcomers: Ithiel Horton (Delaware), John Hugley, William Jeffress, Femi Odukale, Noah Collier, Max Amadasun
Lineup:
*** - it’s unclear if Sibande is seeking a waiver, but he would need one to play immediately
Outlook: Our Pitt preview begins with a couple of “did you know?” trivia questions regarding Coach Jeff Capel:
Did you know that Capel has had four straight head coaching seasons (two at Pitt, two at Oklahoma) where his power conference team finished outside of the KenPom top 100?
Did you know that he’s only had four top-100 finishes in 11 seasons as a head coach? And that he only has one top-40 finish in those 11 years? (Thanks, Blake Griffin)
Lastly, and perhaps most damning – did you know that last year’s Pitt team finished lower in KenPom (111th) than his first season (101st)?
That lack of progress was alarming for a team looking to rebuild from the forest fire that was Kevin Stallings. Sure, the Panthers may have fooled fans into thinking they improved by adding three ACC wins (from three to six), but that was with two additional conference games on the schedule and against an indisputably weaker set of teams.
Pitt wasn’t great on either end of the court, but the most glaring of the Panthers’ issues were on offense. Capel’s system puts a ton of weight on the point guard’s shoulders, and Xavier Johnson’s sophomore season disappointed relative to his promising freshman campaign. His shooting percentages dropped, and his assist/turnover numbers stayed mostly static, something one would expect to improve with more experience. Both his shaky finishing and his questionable decision-making led to him ranking in just the 28th percentile nationally as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (including passes), and that was such a large chunk of Pitt’s offense that it submarined any chance at respectable efficiency. If Johnson continues to stagnate in his development, freshman Femi Odukale could be given some reps on the ball.
Now, in Johnson’s defense – the Panthers were one of the worst shooting teams in the country, meaning Johnson was often looking at clogged driving lanes and over-helping defenders as foes disregarded Pitt’s pitiful perimeter shooters. In terms of effective field goal percentage (which weights three-pointers), the Panthers ranked 342nd in the country, making them one of the worst power conference outfits in recent memory:
Following the transfers of Trey McGowens and Ryan Murphy, two of the team’s only semi-competent shooters, the addition of Delaware transfer Ithiel Horton becomes absolutely crucial. Horton canned 41.1% of his 185 three-point attempts in 2018-19, and he instantly becomes the Panthers’ best perimeter threat. The Panthers’ shooting futility led opponents to play zone against them 26.1% of the time, per Synergy, the 3rd-highest rate in the entire country. Teams just weren’t afraid of Pitt’s shooting, and that threw a wrench in the largely PnR-driven attack that Capel wants to run. Johnson, Horton, Au’Diese Toney, and Justin Champagnie will need to find a way to strike fear into opposing defenses, or this trend will continue.
It’s no surprise that, with so many bricks being launched at the rim and playing against zone so frequently, the Panthers ranked 38th in offensive rebound rate – gotta compensate for the misses somehow! Sophomore forwards Champagnie and Karim Coulibaly spearheaded this effort, and part-time starting center Terrell Brown contributed as well. Champagnie is more of a wing, though, and Pitt completely lacked any sort of interior scoring outside of the occasional Brown put-back.
Enter John Hugley, a burly top-100 recruit and true center who can score one-on-one in the post via great positioning and strong footwork. The post has not been a part of Capel’s system so far, but he also hasn’t had anyone worth dumping the ball into. With more of a meal ticket on the block, perhaps Pitt can boost its efficiencies by throwing different looks at defenses.
The other end of the floor wasn’t any great shakes either, as Pitt ranked just 91st nationally in AdjDE (10th in ACC play). Capel mixed defenses, playing zone about 21% of the time, and that alignment weaponized the quick hands of Johnson and McGowens. It also helped Pitt to be a rare combination of “capable of forcing turnovers” and “does not foul.” Pitt ranked in the top 35 nationally in turnover rate and free throw rate, a feat only matched by Loyola-Chicago.
That was unfortunately offset by handing out a bonanza of offensive rebounds, ranking 349th in defensive rebound rate. Aside from Champagnie and departed center Eric Hamilton, the entirety of the roster cleaned the glass at sub-standard rates for their positions, so the freshman class will be given chances to contribute here. Hugley is a key centerpiece in the paint, and William Jeffress lets the Panthers play bigger lineups without losing much versatility. Max Amadasun and Noah Collier will be further down the minutes pecking order, but they could certainly pass over Brown and Coulibaly if neither veteran improves.
Bottom Line: After year two got stuck in neutral, Capel needs to show clear progress this season. With the conference around him collectively improving, that may be easier said than done, especially with questions persisting around the team’s abysmal shooting and defensive rebounding. Champagnie looks like a rising star, but Capel’s fate is intertwined with that of his point guard, Xavier Johnson. If Johnson improves, Pitt will likely follow, and he could be line for a “post-hype breakout” after underwhelming last year. I question the true height of Pitt’s ceiling, but battling in the middle of the ACC pack is plenty conceivable.
14. Boston College
Key Returners: Jay Heath, Steffon Mitchell, Wynston Tabbs (injury)
Key Losses: Derryck Thornton, Jared Hamilton, Jairus Hamilton (transfer), Nik Popovic, Julian Rishwain (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Makai Ashton-Langford (Providence), Demarr Langford, Rich Kelly (Quinnipiac), James Karnik (Lehigh), Frederick Scott (Rider), Justin Vander Baan
Lineup:
Outlook: There’s been plenty of speculation that the coronavirus has impacted college hoops far beyond the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament. Among those effects: possible hesitance for schools to move on from coaches. Wake Forest bucked that trend, but Jim Christian may have benefited from the uncertainty in the world. He’s now 75-119 overall, 25-85 in the ACC, and last year’s 7-13 ACC finish masked another dismal performance analytically (179th KenPom, 167th BartTorvik, 193rd Haslametrics).
The injury caveat does need to be mentioned, though. BC was ravaged by key players missing games last year, particularly rising star Wynston Tabbs, who didn’t even see the floor. He wasn’t the only one, though:
Many of those guys – Thornton, Popovic, the Hamiltons – were constantly questionable, as well, and that lack of stability in the lineup led to BC’s outrageous inconsistency last year. Per Haslametrics’ consistency measure, BC ranked 341st last season, which helps explain how a team can knock off Virginia at home while also getting swept by Syracuse by a combined 39 points.
With the benefit of full health, though, this BC team could give Christian just his second top-100 KenPom finish in Chestnut Hill. He scoured the graduate transfer market, bringing in four pieces who should play roles in Rich Kelly (Quinnipiac), Frederick Scott (Rider), James Karnik (Lehigh), and Andre Adams (Southern Utah). Those three join Providence sit-out transfer Makai Ashton-Langford and 4-star freshman DeMarr Langford to give the Eagles an impressive incoming crop of newcomers – not to mention Tabbs, who will hopefully be fully healthy this year.
And as exciting as the newcomers are, the keys for BC will be Tabbs and sophomore Jay Heath, both of whom showed tremendous promise in their freshman campaigns. Both can strike from the perimeter or attack off the drive, and both flashed ability with the ball in their hands. Christian doesn’t lean hard on pick-and-rolls (319th in frequency, per Synergy), instead preferring to push in transition and get his guys attacking downhill via hand-offs:
That’s Popovic making the handoff, but Steffon Mitchell and Karnik will often be asked to fill that role this year. Tabbs and Heath are both most comfortable as scorers, but they complement each other well enough to share primary ball-handling duties.
If Christian decides to go with more of a true three-guard lineup (which makes sense given the roster construction), he can position Tabbs and Heath as potent wing scorers and hand the keys to either Ashton-Langford or Kelly. As he was in all four seasons in college, Thornton was an inefficient mess, so the alternatives should be better – although that’s not a given, considering Ashton-Langford’s awful track record at Providence. He brings tremendous pedigree (top-50 recruit out of high school), but he constantly looked lost for the Friars and shot just 36.3% from the field during his two years there. Kelly was Quinnipiac’s best offensive player last year, so he should be a steady choice, but the step up from the topsy-turvy MAAC to the hellacious ACC is a huge one.
And speaking of that, Scott will face the same challenge. An athletic forward who began his career at DePaul, Scott is a versatile ‘tweener who can rebound inside or stretch the floor. Outside of Mitchell (a maniacal rebounder), the glass hasn’t been a priority for BC, so Scott may be more of a defender. Karnik’s step in competition is even bigger, but the Canadian big man is a skilled scorer on the block, something BC has lacked in Christian’s tenure.
The offense needs any boost it can get after a dismal 2020, ranking 228th nationally in AdjOE. The only worse unit in Power 6 was Virginia – and BC’s 128th-ranked defense was a far cry from the Cavs’ #1 squad on that end. Christian is a man-to-man coach, but the Eagles are constantly at an athletic disadvantage against most ACC foes. The additions – especially Langford, Ashton-Langford, and Scott – add elements of positional length and quickness that last year’s BC team simply did not have. Still, Christian has yet to have a top-100 defense at BC, and the smart money is against that happening this year.
Bottom Line: BC’s outcomes this year are highly volatile. If the newcomers adjust quickly to the caliber of competition and Tabbs/Heath ascend towards all-conference level, the Eagles could sneak into the bubble picture. The downside is also considerable, though, if health concerns plague them and the transfers don’t work out. Christian’s future is highly leveraged on this season, and the Eagles should have more flexibility to make a move come next offseason, pandemic-dependent.
Tier 4
15. Wake Forest
Key Returners: Isaiah Mucius, Jahcobi Neath, Ismael Massoud, Ody Oguama
Key Losses: Chaundee Brown (transfer), Olivier Sarr (transfer), Brandon Childress, Andrien White, Torry Johnson
Key Newcomers: Jalen Johnson (Tennessee), Daivien Williamson (ETSU)***, Isaiah Wilkins (Virginia Tech), Ian Dubose (Houston Baptist), Jonah Antonio (UNLV), Quadry Adams, Emmanuel Okpomo
*** - needs waiver for immediate eligibility - we expect him to receive it
Lineup:
Outlook: Look, let’s get this out of the way: this could be a tough year in Winston-Salem. New coach Steve Forbes inherits a roster devoid of (arguably) its four best pieces, and even with those guys, Wake only went 13-18 (6-14) last year. However, Forbes taking over Danny Manning on the sidelines is worth a considerable bump – let’s take a quick peek at the two’s comparative “success” over the last five seasons, shall we?
Incredibly, Forbes was better on average with SoCon resources than Manning was with ACC resources. You know the phrase “Treadmill of Mediocrity,” usually used in reference to middling NBA teams? Under Manning, the Demon Deacons were trying to walk slowly up the Down Escalator of Failure.
And with Forbes taking over, it doesn’t have to be a brutal first year. Just a year ago, Virginia Tech was in a similar spot when Mike Young took over: the roster had been thrashed by graduations, pro departures, and transfers, but the former SoCon boss quickly found pieces that could play his style. Would Wake fans accept a similar 16-16 (7-13) result in Forbes’ first campaign? Put it this way: that would have been Danny Manning’s second-best season, so yeah, that would be a nice baseline.
And Forbes got off to a great start, re-recruiting Ismael Massoud and Jahcobi Neath after both had entered the transfer portal, along with bringing Jalen Johnson (via Tennessee) and Daivien Williamson with him from ETSU. That’s four crucial pieces, and when combined with veterans Isaiah Mucius and Ody Oguama and transfers Isaiah Wilkins (Virginia Tech) and Ian Dubose (Houston Baptist), that at least has the makings of a not-embarrassing ACC rotation.
Note: Williamson needs a waiver to play immediately. However, given that he’s from Winston-Salem and there’s a gosh dang pandemic loose in the streets, it’s a safe-ish assumption that he’ll get one.
The biggest concern here is the lack of beef. Yes, beef! Oguama is the likely starter at center, and though he showed promise on the glass and as a shot-blocker, he is only a wiry 205 pounds. His length helps compensate for that, but he can still get pushed around by ACC post players. Both Tariq Ingraham (6’9, 250 lbs.) and Sunday Okeke (6’8, 250 lbs.) missed last year with Achilles injuries; Forbes will likely hope to get spot minutes from one or both. Otherwise, Forbes will have to hope 3-star recruit and Oak Hill product Emmanuel Okpomo is ready for minutes, or Mucius will have to play small-ball center, which could be disastrous from a defensive standpoint. Forbes teams are typically excellent on the glass, and his aggressive man-to-man schemes can leave driving lanes open. If Mucius and Massoud have to man the frontcourt spots for extended stretches, the interior defense could get gashed.
The depth of this roster (if it exists) is on the perimeter. Neath and Williamson give Forbes two solid ball-handlers with some length, and Johnson, Wilkins, and Dubose provide size and length on the wings. Schooled on defense by Rick Barnes, Johnson should be comfortable stepping in right away; he had plenty of talent and was reportedly excellent in Vol practices, but his production never truly translated to the court. Wilkins will be undergoing a scheme change from Mike Young’s packed in approach (and Buzz Williams’ before him), while Dubose will be introduced to the concept of defense for the very first time – HBU was Wile E. Coyote-esque in its futility on that end last year.
Offensively, Forbes is going to run mostly motion or spread, trying to get his perimeter players in positions to attack downhill:
Williamson’s familiarity with the offense should help him right away (that’s him scoring above), and the athleticism/positional size combinations for Neath and Johnson fit snugly into the system. The roster has quite a bit of shooting, as well: Massoud is lights out from the perimeter, Mucius and Neath will knock in jumpers if left open, and all of the transfers are threats as well. That includes Jonah Antonio, but he’s been abysmal against quality competition in his career (14/69 from deep, 20.3%, in 11 KenPom Tier A games), and he’ll be a glaring defensive liability, as well, so he may not see the floor often. Speedy freshman Quadry Adams may get an opportunity to prove himself, but he’ll certainly sit behind Williamson and Neath in the pecking order.
The size deficiency will be an issue on this end, as well, as Wake may struggle to find the same kind of success on the offensive glass as most of Forbes’ ETSU teams. Oguama and Mucius will contribute, but unless one of the bench bigs can really make an impact, it’s going to be difficult to rely on this as a path for points against most ACC opponents. Forbes also liked having a post up threat to play through at times, and there’s very little evidence of one being on this roster (Mucius was efficient, but on extremely low volume). This lack of an interior safety net means Wake may be susceptible to long scoring droughts this year when shots aren’t falling.
Bottom Line: There’s reason to be optimistic about Forbes’ first year in Winston-Salem, for sure. However, the Deacs still belong in a tier of their own for this reason: they’re the one team where I’d be truly stunned if they became an NCAA Tournament squad. If that happens, give Forbes two Coach of the Year Awards, just for good measure. Given how bleak things looked when he took over, any modicum of respectability would have to be considered a win, and Wake Forest fans should be excited about the long-term benefits of the team’s offseason coaching change, as well.