-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Remy Martin, Alonzo Verge Jr., Taeshon Cherry, Jalen Graham, Kimani Lawrence, Jaelen House
Key Losses: Romello White, Rob Edwards
Key Newcomers: Josh Christopher, Marcus Bagley, Chris Osten, Holland ‘Boo Boo’ Woods* (Portland State)
*Woods is seeking immediate eligibility, but he’s expected to sit out this year and become eligible in 2021-22
UPDATE: On August 19th, Holland Woods received a waiver, making him immediate eligible for the 2021 season. The former Portland State maestro figures to be a valuable reserve in a deep ASU backcourt.
Lineup:
Outlook: Please fasten your seatbelts and keep your chairs locked in the upright position.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Arizona State during the Bobby Hurley regime, it’s this: you better buckle the f*** up.
Arizona State’s basketball stock has been more volatile than a cryptocurrency stock, constantly oscillating between sizzling hot streaks and subzero cold spells. Last year marked another see-saw season on Hurley’s resume, but the ups and downs were more of a kiddie coaster compared to the 2017-18 Millennium Force ride.
The Sun Devils snapped out of a mid-year funk and hit the afterburners in February, rattling off six straight wins to claim sole possession of first place in the Pac-12 standings. Predictably, a subsequent cascade followed. ASU squandered three of its final four contests to stumble over the finish line with an 11-7 league record (20-11 overall), effectively a Déjà vu outcome to the two seasons prior.
However, the fun didn’t stop with COVID’s cancellation of the season. Arizona State basketball became a fixture on ESPN’s bottom line news ticker, as transfer announcements, NBA draft declarations and recruiting splashes continuously cracked last year’s roster foundation like tectonic plates on a fault line:
Recruiting: Hurley put ASU on college basketball’s front page when he landed highly touted 5-star prospect Josh Christopher in April, arming the Sun Devils with another blue-chip prospect (Marcus Bagley). Christopher and Bagley are gifted athletes and purebred scorers, both of whom will be forces to be reckoned with the moment they step on the floor. Yup, the Hurley hype meter has officially been dialed up to 11.
NBA draft declarations: Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge each dropped their name in the NBA draft pool shortly after the season ended, an unsettling development for Sun Devil fans. Thankfully, both Verge and Martin recently confirmed they’ll both be returning to Tempe this season.
Transfers: Three rotational pieces fell through the cracks when Andre Allen, Khalid Thomas and Elias Valtonen all entered the portal this spring. This roster is built to withstand their absences, but Romello White’s shocking departure will certainly rock the boat. As the epicenter of ASU’s interior defense last season, rebounding and rim protection were White’s fortes, skills of which will be tough to replenish at White’s level. In an interview with the State Press this offseason, Hurley admitted he was caught off guard by White’s decision to leave, but Jeff Goodman’s reporting illuminated the tragic reason as to why: White’s grandmother passed away toward the end of last season, rekindling a desire to move closer to his home in Georgia – we wish you the best, Romello.
The first two bullets above hint at the resurrection of Arizona State’s initial identity under Hurley: ‘Guard U’. Hurley is a vocal advocate of the “this is a guard’s game” mantra, which manifests in both his roster construction and style of play. The fearsome foursome of Martin, Verge, Bagley and Christopher will be must-see TV this season, as Hurley will undoubtedly gas up the offensive race car and shift into overdrive with all that horsepower under the hood.
Martin and Verge are the elder statesmen, but only Martin plays with the reliability of a seasoned veteran. He may look out of control at times, but Martin’s jittery style rarely translates to unforced errors. Sure, he’ll make the occasional head scratching decision, but he’s a steady engine capable of pacing a dynamite offense. Verge needs to take a page out of Martin’s playbook, a lightning bolt bucker getter who was all over the map during the non-conference slate. Verge earned national ink with a 43-point torching of Saint Mary’s, but it was an empty effort in an embarrassing 40-point loss. Hurley promoted him to the starting lineup the very next game, but Verge’s inflated confidence backfired. It took time for Verge to accept his destiny as an overqualified 6th man role, but when he did, the Sun Devils started to raise hell on the Pac-12. Per the picture below, it’s clear that ASU’s February tear was largely fueled by ‘the Verge surge’:
However, there’s still a void amongst the Martin / Verge / Christopher triumvirate: a deadeye shooting stroke. Burly Rob Edwards was the lone reliable sharpshooter on last year’s team, which will shift the burden to Martin (a 33% career 3-point shooter), Christopher (evaluators cite his outside jumper as a key improvement area) and Verge (who converted just 29% of 76 3-point attempts last season) to knock down shots at a high clip. Taeshon Cherry, an athletic stretch forward, could be the solution to this conundrum, but his 3-point shooting percentage plummeted to 23% last season after making 35% the year prior. Part-time starter Kimani Lawrence is an effective swiss-army knife on the wing, but his career 29% 3-point field goal percentage doesn’t make him the remedy here either.
This is where Bagley, a fringe 5-star recruit and baby brother of former Duke standout Marvin Bagley, could be the antidote. At 6’7, Bagley is a smooth operator on the wing, blessed with a fluid handle and a smooth jumper, the latter of which could be his most important contribution this season. One rival high school coach had this to say about Bagley when asked to describe him as a player (warning: source article is behind the Athletic paywall):
“He is a pure shooter. In high school when you see size, sometimes if you don’t know much about a player, you go, “He’s (6-7), he’s this, he’s that.” But I think his best skill is as a knock-down shooter. The ball looks great coming out of his hand. He has that shot that you feel like it’s going to go in.”
Christopher’s otherworldly bounce and savvy playmaking ability will make him a malleable weapon on the perimeter, but Bagley’s shooting stroke is what’s in high demand for this ASU team next year.
If Bagley is the offensive X-factor, the unquestioned X-factor on the other side of the ball is rising sophomore Jalen Graham. Influenced by Mike Gribanov, one of the best and most underappreciated evaluators of young talent, I sang Graham’s praises with unabashed confidence last season, a prediction which looked prophetic after the first two games of the season (I cited this exact tweet in my Pac-12 preview last season).
Graham opened his collegiate career with a bang, swatting five shots in the season opener against a ferocious Colorado frontline. But once Romello White was eased back into his typical workload (White started the season in Hurley’s doghouse), Graham’s minutes withered away. Still, he served his duties as an invaluable reserve and his development trajectory is pointing towards the clouds. Offensively, he’s light years away from White’s post-game prowess, but I can assure you Hurley won’t be running many iso post ups with this explosive backcourt. Graham will directly influence winning if he can sustain his defensive impact over a larger minute count – per hooplens.com, ASU’s defensive efficiency was actually better with Graham on the floor than with White.
The 0.10 PPP variance on the defensive side of the ball (0.94 – 0.84) is skewed by the precarious drop in opposing 3-point shooting (it’s unlikely Graham was the reason for this), but notice the net upticks in effective defensive field goal percentage and defensive 2-point field goal percentage with Graham on the floor over White.
In a mad scramble to find insurance for Graham, Hurley and his staff stumbled upon Chris Osten, a JUCO journeyman who likely becomes a minutes eater off the pine. The fact that Osten had minimal alternative Division 1 options is proof that this was a last second detour for the ASU staff. Still, the Sun Devils desperately needed reinforcements up front.
Bottom Line: The DNA of the 2020-21 Sun Devils bears a striking resemblance to the 2017-18 squad. That group leaned on a high-octane perimeter unit, spearheaded by Tra Holder, Shannon Evans, a young Remy Martin and sharpshooter Kodi Justice. Hurley made a deal with the Devil to sacrifice size and physicality (adversely impacting the defense) for speed and shooting (significantly boosting the offense). The 2021 rendition will feature superior length at the 3 and 4 positions, but the blueprint for success is largely the same – that is, let those game-breaking guards unleash hell.
Still, the aforementioned 3-point shooting concerns linger. I’m confident Graham will ascend into a plus defender as the full-time paint patroller up front, but this team will go as far as the offense carries it, which remains contingent on curing last year’s long-range shooting woes.