-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Brandon Williams*, Jemarl Baker Jr., Ira Lee, Christian Koloko
Key Losses: Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji, Max Hazzard, Chase Jeter, Dylan Smith, Stone Gettings
Key Newcomers: Terrell Brown (Seattle), Jordan Brown (Nevada), James Akinjo** (Georgetown), Dalen Terry, Bennedict Mathurin, Kerr Kriisa, Tibet Gorener, Azuolas Tubelis, Daniel Batcho
* assumed to be available at start of season. Williams was cleared for basketball activities in early June, but there’s a chance that either his timetable is delayed or he forgoes the season altogether
** assumed to be eligible at 2nd semester
*** UPDATE: Brandon Williams officially decided to pursue a professional career, but James Akinjo has been deemed immediately eligible. Williams’ exodus paves the way for Akinjo to jumpstart his career in Tucson, as he’s in line to slide into Williams’ spot in the starting lineup right away. The roster picture below has been updated to reflect Williams’ absence and Akinjo’s likely promotion into the starting 5.
Lineup:
Outlook: Sean Miller is used to an elephant in the room – first, it was a blue-tinted, over-coated woolly mammoth (embroidered with the letters ‘FBI’) lurking in the corner. He co-existed with that overbearing creature for years, somehow avoiding the wrath of Armageddon. But now, there’s a new elephant descending upon Tucson, a combative beast bloodthirsty for (what it perceives as) “justice”.
The doomsday is still coming. The guillotine is still mounted. The only thing that’s changed is the inevitable executioner…
Miller had no time to fret over impending infractions and penalties last season. More imminent issues threatened his team’s chemistry, both on the floor and in the locker room. Widely perceived as a no-nonsense, authoritarian program director, Miller’s old school brash and borderline abrasive personality doesn’t always resonate with his players. Last year, this was compounded by a chasm in the perceived offensive hierarchy. Nico Mannion and Josh Green were crowned as kings long before they stepped foot on campus. Yet, it was the forgotten third banana of the rookie bunch, Zeke Nnaji, who shined the brightest.
All season long, Mannion and Green’s erratic efficiency pushed Miller to grow increasingly frustrated with Nnaji’s lack of interior touches. Miller tried to toe the line between allotting Mannion and Green unbounded freedom in transition and harnessing the pace to establish Nnaji in half-court settings. The cold, hard truth is that Nnaji was far and away the Cats’ most dependable scoring option last year. Mannion and Green’s effective field goal percentages averaged out to 47%, 10% below Nnaji’s 57% clip. One could argue Nnaji’s reluctance to pass out of the post limited his value as an offensive centerpiece, but Nnaji was simply unstoppable at times. The sweetener for Nnaji was Miller’s longstanding affection for size and physicality, a trademark of his best teams in Tucson over the years.
Now, Miller sounds willing to relinquish the balance of power back to the perimeter, a function of a roster loaded with guard and wing depth (quote below from Arizona Desert Swarm, Arizona’s SB Nation affiliate site):
“Not only do I think that at times we’ll have two ball-handlers on the court, but really for the first time maybe since we’ve had Nick Johnson and Gabe York with T.J. McConnell...we’re going to have three guards on the court,” said Miller. “That’s where our depth is, and even the subs…there’s guys that can pass, dribble and shoot and are more guards than they are big wings and forwards. So I think that’ll allow us to get more dribble penetration and not rely maybe on one pure ball-handler, maybe like Nico was in this year that role. And those guys kind of play off of each other and help each other more.”
“The days of just playing a point guard, two big wings, a power forward and a center are over,” Miller said. “You want to put your best players on the court. I think this year we’ll have lineups that have three guards that play different styles.”
Sean Miller’s optimism is endearing, but this overload of options can be a double-edged sword. It’s like going to a restaurant and being handed a bible for a menu – too many items makes it impossible to choose the best entree. I typically vouch for roster optionality as a positive (refer to my UCLA preview), but Zona’s dynamic is unique. The sheer uncertainty hovering over so many narratives, as I detail below, gives me some reservations:
Brandon Williams’ reboot: Williams missed all of last season after undergoing surgery to correct a condition called osteochondritis dissecans, an issue that’s bothered Williams since high school. Miller said this summer that Williams was never 100% during his freshman campaign (he was eventually decommissioned for the year in late January). The Cats tanked without B-Will’s steady hand in the backcourt and looked lost offensively trying to replicate his savvy decision making and reliable long-range marksmanship. This summer, he was finally cleared for basketball activities in early June, but COVID has prevented UofA’s doctors from getting a thorough assessment of his knee. Many remain bearish on Williams’ return, speculating he’ll be the odd man out in the current scholarship crunch, but recent footage of him hooping back home in Southern California brings a renewed sense of optimism.
Terrell Brown’s transition: Up-transfers are always a dicey proposition, but the former Seattle standout is ready for takeoff in the desert. Once upon a time, Miller groomed a young Duquesne transfer named TJ McConnell, the heartbeat of Miller’s two best teams at Arizona (2014 and 2015), into an unassailable floor general. Is Brown, a dangerous penetrator and crafty finisher, in store for a similar transformation? He’ll get extra special attention and care from his godfather Jason Terry, a Wildcat legend who became the newest member of the Arizona staff this offseason.
James Akinjo’s integration: At Georgetown, Akinjo conducted the offense on his terms. Many speculated this dynamic caused some friction with former teammate Mac McClung, another Hoya defector (now at Texas Tech). With that partially failed experiment top of mind, is it fair to question Akinjo’s ability to co-pilot this offense judiciously alongside Williams and Brown? Consider the following factoids:
Brown’s usage rate last year: 33.6%, the 15th highest rate in country, per KenPom
Akinjo’s usage rate last year (through seven games, before leaving Georgetown): 26.5%, which is officially unranked on KenPom.com due to a lack of games played, but would’ve likely ranked inside the top-200 nationally
Let’s assume for a second that Williams is shut down this year. I’m cautiously optimistic that Akinjo and Brown can co-exist in a two-headed point guard attack. Yes, they’ll have to adapt to playing off the ball more than they’re accustomed to, but both are willing distributors who will the feed the many hungry mouths scattered throughout the rest of the roster. Jemarl Baker will help with floor spacing to offset Akinjo and Brown’s shooting woes, as will a healthy Williams (if he’s able to play).
Freshmen fit: Lithuanian rookie Kerr Kriisa will also factor in the point guard equation, but a pair of 6’6 newcomers, Dalen Terry (top-50 recruit from Phoenix) and Bennedict Mathurin (fringe top-100 recruit from Canada) may benefit right away from less positional competition. Terry is young, but Miller gushes about his versatility:
“To pigeonhole Dalen Terry as just a point guard, just small forward, or two-guard would just be really unfair,” Miller told the Athletic. “I believe that he’s today’s version, the way our game’s played, of just a guard. He can play the one, two or three. When I talk about a three-guard lineup, he could be that third guard where the No. 1 thing that Dalen does well is he’s an excellent passer and he’s 6-foot-6.”
That Athletic spotlight hinted that Mathurin still needs some polishing, but I’m in love with his length / handle combination as a slasher; he attacks the rim with a raging ferocity:
Phew, that was a mouthful.
*checks remaining names to mention*
Shit, I’m not even halfway there…
Before the name dropping continues, I hope you now appreciate the maze Miller and his staff have to navigate to find the best backcourt recipe.
Now, to the frontcourt…
Few 5-star prospects have been slept on like former Nevada transfer Jordan Brown. Brown’s an interesting case study. Despite being an upperclassman, he’s still an unproven commodity. His patience will be rewarded this season, as he now becomes the epicenter of the Wildcats’ frontcourt. Christian Koloko was overshadowed by Nnaji last year, but he was effective in limited spurts and still possesses a world of upside. Similarly, Ira Lee, another former 4-star recruit, was usurped by Cornell grad transfer Stone Gettings in the depth chart, but he’ll have the inside track to recoup those minutes this year.
Miller spiced up the frontline with some serious international flavor, courtesy of Tibet Gorener (Turkey), Daniel Batcho (France) and Azuolas Tublelis (Lithuania). Tublelis’s younger brother, Tautvilas Tubelis, is also joining the fold, but Azuolas is the one to watch. ESPN dubbed Azuolas the top European recruit in the 2020 recruiting cycle, a testament to Azuolas’ advanced toolkit and ball skills at 6’8. Finding a meaningful comp for Azuolas’ power wing prototype is tricky, but former Michigan star Iggy Brazdeikis is one who comes to mind:
Bottom Line: This roster runs the gamut of player prototypes. Pure points. Combo scorers. Multi-positional wings. Inverse forwards. Miller’s got a war chest of assets at his disposal, but this isn’t football. The staff faces some brutal decisions in juggling the 400 minutes available, as all 13 guys on the roster hold a legitimate claim for playing time (once the scholarship game of musical chairs sorts itself out). Enabling role acceptance will be a huge hurdle, but this team feels like it has a chip on its shoulder. The lack of 5-star hoopla should deflate any lofty preseason hype and diminish any sense of entitlement. If Miller can harness that into an ‘us against the world’ mentality, the Wildcats might be flying under the radar.