-Jim Root
Key Returners: Kihei Clark, Jay Huff, Tomas Woldetensae, Casey Morsell
Key Losses: Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key
Key Newcomers: Sam Hauser (Marquette), Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Reece Beekman, Carson McCorkle
Lineup:
Outlook: Allow me to be the very first (don’t check that) to congratulate Virginia on entering the 2021 season as the reigning national champions! Without an NCAA Tournament last year, I’m pretty sure the 2019 title counts double now, and UVA should be raising a second banner come November. A couple players remain from that title team, and Tony Bennett adds a trio of recruits that rivals the Kyle Guy/Ty Jerome/DeAndre Hunter class (Rice transfer Trey Murphy is the Jay Huff of this analogy). Putting those kinds of expectations on the 2020 class is unfair, but they’ll all have chances to earn roles on what is potentially Tony Bennett’s next great squad.
Although Virginia tied for second in the ACC, a flurry of late game victories masked the fact that, to be blunt, the Cavaliers just weren’t very good last year. They finished 42nd at KenPom, 34th at BartTorvik, and 40th at Haslametrics. The offense was a disaster, ranking dead last out of all power conferences schools per KenPom’s AdjOE, primarily due to frigid perimeter shooting and limited perimeter creators.
Kihei Clark was miscast as a primary scoring option, and his game struggled when he had to generate shots for himself rather than others. You won’t find many players whose assist rate (37.7%) is higher than his 2P percentage (37.5%) – as far as I can tell, only two others “accomplished” that feat last season (UTRGV’s Javon Levi and Hartford’s Traci Carter). Clark is a terrific passer and an excellent defender, but he can’t be the featured perimeter player for a high caliber offense. His turnovers leapt from 1.0 per game to 3.5 per game, largely as a result of his increased burden, and last year was by far the shakiest ball-handling squad Bennett has had recently (and his worst at UVA):
He wasn’t the only problem, though, as Braxton Key, Casey Morsell, and Kody Stattmann were all horrendous from the perimeter (18.5%, 17.6%, and 26.9%, respectively). More will be expected from Morsell as a sophomore, and he almost has to get better by default; his stroke looks too good to continue such monumental futility. Tomas Woldentesae actually made threes, but he didn’t do anything else, making him a relatively simple matchup as a one-dimensional threat.
Because the returners struggled so mightily, the aforementioned freshman trio has plenty of chances to get on the court. Jabri Abdur-Rahim is the gem of the group, a long wing who uses his size well when attacking the hoop. Plus, he’s the son of Shareef Abdur-Rahim, a legend of the defunct Vancouver Grizzlies (shouts to Ja Morant for helping bring the old jerseys back). If JAR defends, he’ll soak up minutes right away, despite Bennett’s typical aversion to playing rookies. Reece Beekman is another key addition as a floor leader, enabling Clark to actually get some rest at times (Clark ranked 20th in the entire country and led the ACC in % of minutes played). Beekman does a ton of things well and will almost certainly be a UVA star down the road. The last froshy is Carson McCorkle, a shooter who will need to add some strength and settle into the defensive scheme. If nothing else, Virginia has significantly more depth than last year.
The Hoos also totally lacked a go-to scorer, and despite Mamadi Diakite’s admirable efforts to masquerade as one, his departure makes way for a more pure offensive machine: Marquette transfer Sam Hauser. He’s a certified assassin from deep (44.5% on 553 career three-point attempts), the perfect soothing balm for the constant irritant that was Virginia’s impotent perimeter shooting. He should fit well into the attack as either a scorer hunting shots in the mover/blocker or a pick-and-pop threat in continuity ball screen (CBS). He also showed impressive aptitude as an isolation and post up scorer, again mostly via his silky stroke:
Bennett has drifted more and more towards CBS over the past couple seasons, giving increased freedom to his ball-handlers. It made sense with Jerome running the show in 2018-19, and again last year to get the ball in Clark’s hands and away from the erratic wings. Hauser and Jay Huff become more potent in CBS, often catching the ball in space with room to shoot or attack a closeout, something Huff excels at:
Whichever system Bennett leans toward, you know Virginia will play at a deliberate pace, controlling the tempo and only breaking in transition if a golden opportunity presents itself.
On the other end, the pack line success should beat on like a metronome. Losing elite defenders in Diakite and Key hurts, but there’s plenty of defensive talent remaining, and the players are so well-schooled that Virginia is consistently able to control what the offense can do. The pack line takes away transition opportunities and keeps opponents away from the rim. Foes only took 20.0% of their initial field goal attempts in transition last year, the 20th-lowest rate in the country, and that number should be even lower if the offense takes better care of the ball. Off-ball defenders sag off into driving lanes, an alignment that forces opponents to shoot over the top to score.
Huff led the ACC in block rate last year, and his immense length and size consistently diffused any probes that got through the defense’s compressed driving lanes. Along with Diakite, he helped Virginia rank 3rd nationally in defensive FG% at the rim, per hoop-math, and having Huff’s length in the paint once again should keep that number low. The frontcourt depth is incredibly unproven: Justin McKoy and Francisco Caffaro barely saw the court last year, and the more highly-touted Kadin Shedrick is a mystery in his own right after redshirting. Shedrick has oodles of upside, and he should be much stronger after a full year of Division I weight training.
Clark does a great job of hounding opposing ball-handlers, and he’ll be able to extend 94 feet more frequently this year (like he did as a freshman) knowing that he actually has a competent backup in Beekman. Morsell and JAR have the physical tools to be tremendous defenders, and Morsell especially should have high expectations on that end given the experience he gained last year. Stattmann’s length makes him valuable too, despite his considerable shortcomings on offense.
Bottom Line: The scheme consistency indicates that the defense will remain elite, particularly with Huff as the rim warden and Clark harassing ball-handlers. The Cavs’ ceiling will be determined by how extreme the offensive improvement is; Hauser is a great start, but the veterans desperately need to find ways to score more efficiently within the fabric of Bennett’s morphing system. Another ACC regular season title is a realistic goal, and Bennett has the pieces to make a run at going back-to-(…)-to-back in the NCAA Tournament, as well.