-Jim Root
Key Returners: Collin Gillespie (extra year), Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels (extra year), Caleb Daniels, Brandon Slater, Bryan Antoine, Eric Dixon, Trey Patterson (early enrollee)
Key Losses: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (pro), Cole Swider (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jordan Longino, Nnanna Njoku, Angelo Brizzi
Lineup:
Note: Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree was forced to medically retire. He has been removed from the roster above; please disregard the discussion around him in the body of the preview.
Outlook: It may always be sunny in Philadelphia, but that sun shone much brighter on April 12th (well, in parts of Philly at least – the rest of the Big 5 cannot be happy). That was the day Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels announced their decisions to use the extra year afforded them by the NCAA’s COVID-19 policy, instantly vaulting the Wildcats into title contender status and giving headaches to coaches across the Big East.
Last year saw the Wildcats suffer through multiple injuries – including point guard and emotional leader Gillespie’s torn MCL – but Villanova still managed to win the Big East (albeit while playing five fewer games than Creighton) and reach the Sweet 16, even taking a seven-point halftime lead against eventual national champion Baylor. Even so, hopes were higher considering the bevy of playmaking and experience on the roster, and seeing Gillespie have to watch his team exit the NCAA Tournament from a COVID-safe distance was heartbreaking.
As wonderful as it is to have Gillespie (and Samuels) back, though, we need to start with the Jeremiah Robinson-Elephant in the room. The Wildcats must replace Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, a true star last season who became the hub of the offense after Gillespie went down. JRE was a matchup nightmare – too quick and skilled for opposing centers to stay in front of, too strong for everyone else. Villanova opponents often put their center on Samuels due to JRE’s immense skill level, but that just led to JRE bullying or shooting over smaller guards and wings, and he became a better passer down the stretch as well.
Without that element of JRE in the post, the offense should trend back towards the pick-and-rolls and handoffs that made it so successful in previous years:
Gillespie, Justin Moore, and Caleb Daniels all ran a significant volume of pick-and-rolls last year, but generally speaking, the team was far more effective when those ball screens led to drive-and-dish scenarios rather than those players finishing:
That’s always been Nova’s bread-and-butter: bend the defense, get it moving with crisp passing around the perimeter, and ultimately get an open shot inside or on the perimeter thanks to having skilled players throughout the lineup. This is what we’ve come to expect from Nova possessions:
This year’s group should excel in that area, as Samuels and Daniels are terrific complementary scorers when catching the ball against a scrambling defender, and Brandon Slater and Bryan Antoine both offer potential as slashers/scorers. Oh, and Gillespie and Moore are quite deadly against rotating defenses, as well.
Moore’s 3P shooting tanked as a sophomore (from 39.6% down to 31.0%), but the release is still smooth, and the burly guard could reach an even higher level offensively this season. The true wild card, though, is Antoine. He should find more confidence this year after finally getting on the court for extended run late last year. He’s a lanky wing who mostly deferred to JRE and Moore when he saw court time, but a player with his athleticism and pure shooting stroke is a rare commodity. The former 5-star recruit has struggled to get past injury hurdles, but the talent is still there, and this is his first healthy offseason since he was in high school. Notably, this Villanova roster is already terrific before he makes any sort of a leap, but if he rediscovers his old form – watch out.
Freshman Jordan Longino is another versatile weapon on the wing whose pure stroke and extended shooting range look worthy of early playing time, but Wright is often hesitant to throw true freshmen into the fire, and he may get stuck behind the logjam of experience ahead of him. The same goes for Angelo Brizzi, a smooth, instinctive guard who looks like the eventual successor to Gillespie and Chris Arcidiacono.
Important note: the post up will not vanish entirely from the offense. Wright has increasingly used his guards and wings to ruthlessly pick on mismatches against smaller foes; remember Jalen Brunson and his sizable derriere putting opposing guards in the torture chamber? Last year, Samuels, Gillespie, and Moore all scored in the 84th percentile or better on post ups on more than 20 such possessions each.
Regardless of style, though, several tenets will remain true: the Wildcats will be supremely patient on the offensive end (301st in average possession length last year), they will take care of the ball (4th in turnover rate), and they will fire away from deep (top 31 in 3PA rate nationally for eight straight years).
Robinson-Earl’s absence will also be felt on the defensive end, an area which plagued the Wildcats all season long. JRE was the only true post player consistently in the rotation, as Eric Dixon’s mobility and youth limited his impact and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree missed the entire year with injury. As a result, Villanova’s 2P% defense exceeded 50% for the first time since 2007-08, allowing foes to get easier baskets and force the Wildcats to concede a high volume of threes while packing the paint.
The frontcourt rotation should be significantly deeper this year with Dixon developing into a more well-rounded player, Cosby-Roundtree hopefully healthy (per Wright, he’s not quite there yet), and Trey Patterson and Nnanna Njoku entering the fold. Patterson actually enrolled during the season last year and got more than two months of practicing in, and his extra seasoning likely gives him the inside track at early minutes. The burly Njoku becomes even more important if DCR is unable to get fully healthy from his tibia issue, as he could be the only remaining hope of a shot-blocking presence inside.
Elsewhere, though, the Nova defense is in solid shape. Wright will mix in zone at times, but his preference is definitely a switching man-to-man that often tempts opponents into trying to pick on Gillespie as a mismatch. Wright is also fond of the soft 1-2-2 zone press (a favorite of mine), slowing opponents down and forcing them into longer possessions that introduce the shot clock as an extra defender.
Samuels, Moore, Antoine, and Slater are all switchable wings who can guard multiple positions thanks to combinations of size, strength, and length, and despite his stature, Gillespie has the veteran guile to be an asset. Wright once went five straight seasons with a top 12 defense, per KenPom’s AdjDE, so it’s not impossible for his teams to be elite on that end, though this one likely settles into more of a “very good” realm unless a real post defender/shot-blocker emerges. Like most Nova teams, this one should be offense-heavy, but the likely defensive improvement over last year could make this version a more viable title contender.
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are loaded top to bottom once again. The lingering question, though, is whether this roster has the NBA talent of previous title-winning versions. Is there a Josh Hart-caliber player here capable of being an All-American and first round NBA Draft pick? Gillespie may check the first box, but unless Antoine unearths his immense talent or Moore takes another leap, the Wildcats may lack the extra gear of the 2016 team (and few teams will ever match the 2018 roster). Still, assuming solid health, Villanova is a safe bet to win the Big East, be a top ten team nationally, and find itself with a 1- or 2-seed next to it come Selection Sunday.