- Ky McKeon

In a new (hopefully) weekly column, I’ll be shining a spotlight on three teams on the rise and three teams on the decline. The goal here will be to emphasize more off-the-beaten-path squads, those not regularly covered in the media (or by Jim & Matt’s wonderful weekly editions). More teams, more content, Three Man Weave.

Three Up

Alcorn State

For the non-SWACsters out there, let me introduce you to the Braves of Alcorn State. It’s been 18 years since the program’s last NCAA Tourney bid back in 2002, and in that timespan the Braves have been a staple in the bottom-50 of KenPom’s national rankings. Only four times since 2002 has Alcorn finished with an above-.500 record in conference play, two of which have come under current head coach Montez Robinson. With its recent 28-point win at Arkansas Pine Bluff, Alcorn State currently sits at 278th in KenPom, its highest rating since that fateful Tourney year, and in the SWAC the Braves are 4-2, just one game behind league powers Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M.

The Braves’ remarkable run in which they’ve won and covered four of their last five has been spurred by an insane three-point clip. Over the last five games, Alcorn has knocked down 47.2% of its 127 three-point attempts, a trend that the Weave has faded twice unsuccessfully.

On the season, Alcorn is 36.9% from the land of plenty, the 37th best mark in the country. Seniors Deshaw Andrews and Maurice Howard are shooting a combined 45.2% on the year from deep and a staggering 53.4% in SWAC play. It should come as no surprise that the last time the Braves shot this well from the outside was back in 2002, when Dave Whitney’s squad knocked down 37.6% over the course of the season.

Merrimack

Welcome to Division I, Merrimack, you’re going to love it here. The Warriors made their presence known to the college basketball world early on when they defeated Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan Arena on November 8th. Joe Gallo’s scrappy squad then played a competitive non-conference slate and entered NEC play looking to prove it belonged in the big leagues. Through seven games in conference play, Merrimack sits alone atop the NEC standings at 6-1 and holds impressive wins on the road against conference title contenders Sacred Heart, St. Francis PA, and Robert Morris.

Defense has been the calling card for the Warriors. Merrimack ranks 151st in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom (2nd in the NEC) thanks to having the nation’s best steal rate and 7th best turnover rate. Gallo’s squad is one of the shortest in DI, but his team makes up for its size with pressure defense on the perimeter. Senior guard Juvaris Hayes leads the nation in steal rate (a ridiculous 6.5%) and steals per game (3.8) and has posted 6+ swipes in four different contests.

Against the poor Central Connecticut Blue Devils, Hayes stole the ball NINE times…

Here’s one:

And another:

Annnnnd another:

Hayes leads a team worthy for a shot at an NCAA Tournament bid, unfortunately the NCAA inexplicably disallows teams transferring up to Division I from competing in the best postseason event in the country until they complete an arbitrary four-year transition period. Stupid, I know.

Colorado State

The Rams have righted the ship after a dreadful 0-3 start to Mountain West play. Though two victories came against the dregs of the league in Wyoming and San Jose State, Niko Medved’s squad finally looked to be living up to its billing with wins over New Mexico in Fort Collins and Air Force on the road. Since its New Year’s Day defeat to Nevada, the Rams have risen 43 spots in KenPom’s national rankings and now sit tied for 3rd in the competitive MWC.

We’ve long praised Medved’s coaching chops and wizardry after succeeding at Furman and Drake, so it’s not a total shock to see CSU coming into its own. Defense has been the main driver for the recent success, as the Rams rank 2nd in the MWC in defensive efficiency driven by the league’s 4th best TO rate, 2nd best defensive rebounding rate, and best FT rate. Not allowing second chance opportunities or free points from the charity stripe is a good formula for success in college basketball, and right now Medved’s group is doing both of those things as well as any team in the country.

As in years past, rebound monster Nico Carvacho has been the nucleus of the squad, ranking 11th nationally with 10.8 boards per game. But the emergence of freshmen David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens has really boosted CSU’s play since the calendar flipped to 2020. Both players are blowing away their season average in points per game and both have upped their respective positional stats (rebounds for Roddy, assists for Stevens), accordingly.

Bonus: Butler’s Blue IV

I mean…

Three Down

Purdue

Ok, this one might not be totally fair given Purdue’s four losses over the past five games have come against projected Tourney teams Illinois (twice), Michigan (away), and Maryland (away). But there are no “gimmes” in the Big Ten, and if Purdue wants to make the Big Dance, it’s going to have to win games away from Mackey Arena or else be near-perfect at home. The Boilers are 1-4 this year on the road, with notable results including a 14-point loss at Nebraska and a 26-point loss at Illinois. While Purdue has been a much better squad at home, there have still been some cracks in the concrete. Illinois took down the Boilers by 17 at Mackey on Tuesday, Texas, a team nobody is impressed with, won earlier this season on Gene Keady court, and the Boilers needed double OT to dispatch a scrappy Minnesota team on January 2nd.

Purdue’s Tourney resume is suspect at this point despite having a clear bevy of talent on the roster. When looking at the Boilers compared to other Big Ten squads, Matt Painter’s group is simply ordinary:

Injecting Trevion Williams into the starting lineup appeared to do some good at the beginning, but Purdue is still just 6-6 (5-7 ATS) over those 12 games. Per Hoop Lens, the Boilers have fared much better offensively with Williams on the floor, but Haarms has had the bigger defensive impact.

Source Hoop Lens, Numbers are Points per Possession

Neither big guy has been able to lift the team’s offense as a whole, though, as the Boilers currently rank dead last in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Poor shooting by the backcourt, both from beyond the arc and inside the paint off drives, has been a major detriment to Purdue’s offensive efforts. When your primary ball handler is a non-factor offensively (Nojel Eastern) and you’re relying heavily on a High Point transfer shooting 27.6% from deep (Jahaad Proctor) to score points, offense can be hard to come by. I’m still a believer in the Boilers, but with just one Big Ten game left against an opponent named “Northwestern” or “Nebraska” the road back to the NCAA Tournament is going to be mighty rocky.

Kent State

Kent State started MAC play with a bang, upending Bowling Green on the road and Toledo and Central Michigan at home. It seemed the Flashes were the team to beat in a surprisingly competitive conference following a mass exodus of senior talent. Alas, Kent has come crashing back down to planet Earth with three straight losses to “lesser” MAC opponents in Miami OH, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois. From a gambling lens, KSU hasn’t covered since January 7th against Toledo, four games ago.

Here’s Kent State’s year-to-date performance summarized in a fancy visual aid:

Kent’s recent skid certainly has an element of luck baked into it. In its three recent losses, Flash opponents have shot 44% from deep, a full 10% above Kent’s regular season average. KSU is one of the nation’s best at limiting three-point attempts, so this string of shooting luck may be just that – luck. Of course it also doesn’t help that Kent has scored just 1.04, 1.00, and 1.03 PPP in its last three contests, offensive performances that won’t beat many teams shooting even a normal three-point percentage. With two daunting road contests at Buffalo and Toledo and two home contests against the best two teams in the league in Akron and Ball State scheduled over the next 12 days, the Flashes may find themselves in the cellar of the East Division if their scoring woes and three-point defense luck doesn’t turn around.

Massachusetts

This team sucks. I say that as a gambler and as a diehard college basketball fan. It appears UMass’s 5-0 start to the year was a total red herring, a beginning that was entirely meant to mislead the nation from the dirty underlying truth: UMass sucks.

Since starting 5-0, the Minutemen have gone 2-12 over their last 14 contests and have started A-10 play with a 1-5 mark. And like most teams in the “Three Down” section on a near-weekly basis, UMass is 0-4 ATS over its last four. Stepping back to a 10,000-foot view, this team’s current state isn’t that surprising, but it’s that damn 5-0 start (and 10-5 ATS start) that makes this drop off so frustrating.

Matt McCall’s break-neck pace in conference play isn’t helping matters. UMass is currently playing at the 2nd fastest tempo in league play, driven by it allowing the shortest average possession length on defense. Opposing teams have taken UMass to the woodshed in transition in A-10 play and more possessions has meant more opportunities for favorites to pull away from the Minutemen as the game goes on. Through six games, UMass is the second-worst defensive team in the A-10, worst defensive rebounding team, and dead last in 3PA rate.