- Ky McKeon
In a new (hopefully) weekly column, I’ll be shining a spotlight on three teams on the rise and three teams on the decline. The goal here will be to emphasize more off-the-beaten-path squads, those not regularly covered in the media (or by Jim & Matt’s wonderful weekly editions). More teams, more content, Three Man Weave.
Three Up
Minnesota
Despite the risk of jinxing my Gophers, I must tell the world about what they’ve done lately in the college basketball realm. Minnesota lost its two best players from last season’s 10-seed squad in addition to senior glue-guy Dupree McBrayer, but Richard Pitino’s team is somehow better in 2019-20. Very few saw this offensive renaissance coming from the Gophers this year – even I picked them 9th in the Big Ten, which was higher than any other national rankings I came across. Known last year as more of a defensive-first squad, Pitino’s bunch currently stands 15th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metrics, led by All-American candidate Daniel Oturu. Oturu’s gravity in the paint has opened up the perimeter for Gopher shooters, of which Pitino finally has several at his disposal. Plus, the kid’s got MOXIE!:
Minnesota is attempting threes at the highest rate in Pitino’s tenure since his first year on the job in 2013-14. Guys like Gabe Kalscheur, transfers Payton Willis, Marcus Carr, and Alihan Demir, and even Oturu are all capable outside shooters, which forces defenses to stretch much more than they ever had to against Minnesota in the past. Carr has been excellent as the team’s point guard, taking over a spot that was occupied by Amir Coffey last season out of necessity. Carr leads the Big Ten in minutes, ranks 4th in assist rate while maintaining a miniscule turnover rate, and is shooting 37.5% from deep in Big Ten play.
Since a beat down at Iowa, Minnesota has won and covered six of its last eight including contests against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Like all Big Ten teams, the Gophers have struggled on the road, but they stand in prime position to challenge for a top seven Big Ten finish and a second straight trip to the Dance.
Chattanooga
Don’t look now but the Mocs, picked to finish 8th in the SoCon by 3MW, are currently SURGING up the conference standings. Lamont Paris has improved Nooga in each of the three seasons he’s been at the program, looking to build the school back to its status under Will Wade and Matt McCall. The Mocs have won six of their last seven games and are 5-2 ATS during that run, riding elite shooting and all-around play from junior guard David Jean-Baptiste. That run has propelled the Mocs to 166th in KenPom after starting the year at 278th, the 6th-highest rank jump of all 353 teams.
Source: KenPom
Nooga’s latest victim was a good Wofford squad, whom they dismantled by 13 at McKenzie Arena. Prior to that matchup, the Mocs gave Furman a scare in the same venue and nearly knocked off Virginia Tech on the road. During the 7-game stretch following the VT game, the Mocs have shot 68/172 from downtown (39.5%). Paris’s squad shoots the 40th highest rate of threes in the country and has knocked them down at the 68th best mark.
Controlling the tempo has been key in the Mocs’ mid-season success – they play at the 8th slowest tempo in the conference and do well limiting transition opportunities. Nooga’s down-transfers have also helped up the talent pool on the roster and allowed them to compete against superior opponents. Matt Ryan (Vanderbilt / Notre Dame) and Ramon Vila (Arizona State) are both averaging career-highs in every stat across the board, flanking Jean-Baptiste’s overall excellence. Vila in particular has fueled the Mocs’ 7th best post-up efficiency mark, scoring on the block at the 88th percentile in the country. The SoCon is brutal at the top this year with UNC Greensboro, Furman, and East Tennessee State all looking fully capable of winning the league. Chattanooga has its work cut out for it if its to make a dark-horse run at the auto-bid, but never count out the feisty Mocs.
Montana
All Montana needed was the calendar to flip over to conference play to erase what was a horrid start to the 2019-20 season. The Griz lost a ton of production from last year but were still picked to be one of the elite Big Sky squads. A 1-4 start against the number left many scratching their head, including this writer. Alas, all is well once again in Missoula. The Griz are 5-1 in the Big Sky, continuing their dominant conference run they’ve been on for the past decade.
Source: KenPom
Sayeed Pridgett, arguably the best player in the Big Sky, and Kendal Manuel, the reigning Big Sky 6th Man of the Year, have been excellent this season, but it’s the recent play of freshman Derrick Carter-Hollinger that has helped Montana turn the corner. Over the last three games, DCH is averaging 14.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 2.0 BPG off the bench. His ability to play the 4 or 5 despite standing just 6’5” has allowed Travis DeCuire to play quicker, more flexible lineups.
Jared Samuelson has also been impressive in conference play after missing the start of the year; he’s pouring in 10.7 PPG in Big Sky games and shooting 8/14 from deep. With two huge conference contests out of the way at Southern Utah and Eastern Washington, the Griz have a stranglehold on the top-spot in the league alongside Northern Colorado. A March 5th matchup between the Big Sky leaders will likely determine the 1-seed in the postseason conference tournament.
Three Down
Xavier
What a disappointing season its been for the Musketeers. After owning the latter half of the 2019 season and starting 11-2 this year, Xavier has gone just 1-4 in Big East play and hasn’t covered a game since December 22nd (six games ago). That stout defense we saw from Travis Steele and Co. in February last year has been non-existent in conference play, as the Muskies rank dead last in KenPom’s Big East adjusted defensive efficiency metrics. Xavier’s shooting has been woeful this season; the Muskies rank 311th in 3P% overall (29.4%) and 8th in Big East play (27.1%). This complete lack of shooting has allowed opposing defenses to focus on big man Tyrique Jones, who has been Xavier’s highest-used player this season.
With little threat of kick-out threes falling, opponents are free to dig and double on the big man and clog up the lane to prevent slashers like Naji Marshall and Quentin Goodin from getting to the cup.
At 69th in the NET with just one win against Q1 competition (at TCU), Xavier is in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season after punching bids every year but two from 2001 – 2018. This team has far too much talent and experience to be performing this poorly; hopefully the Muskies’ late season run can start earlier than last year and X can crash the Dance once again.
Missouri State
Speaking of teams with an abundance of talent with little to show for it: The Missouri State Bears! Picked #1 in the Valley by 3MW (me) and the MVC media members, the Bears now sit tied for 7th in the MVC standings. “How could this happen?” you may ask, “How can a team with West Virginia’s 2019 leading scorer, the #2 JUCO prospect in the country, two returning All-MVC honorees, and a Nevada transfer possibly be a mediocre Missouri Valley team?” I have no idea whatsoever.
Jared Ridder, a burgeoning sophomore star, has been out for the season with a shoulder injury, but Dana Ford still has way too much talent to be messing around with an 8-10 (2-3) record. Point guard play has been a major issue, as MTSU transfer Tyrik Dixon has struggled with turnovers and freshman Ford Cooper isn’t quite ready for major minutes. Shot selection has been a joke – no team in the country has attempted a fewer percentage of shots near the rim than Missouri State this season and only one team (Southern Miss) has attempted more two-point jumpers.
Source: Hoop-Math
Source: Hoop-Math
That’s not talent – that’s coaching. Ford’s inability to reign in his multiple alpha offensive personalities has resulted in too much “my turn, your turn” on offense, which is a sure way of taking teammates out of the flow of the game when shots aren’t falling. Perhaps there are downsides to relying on a heavy dose of transfers to carry your program.
Defense has also been a disaster. Granted, the Bears may be the victims of some shooting luck, as MVC opponents are shooting 39.6% from three in five games, but MSU’s bevy of athletes should at least be better than 8th in the league in TO rate, 5th in DR%, and 6th in 2PFG% D. MO State has already dropped games to the three best teams in the Valley this season in Loyola, Bradley, and Northern Iowa, the latter two in convincing fashion. Ford will need to figure out his team’s offensive stagnation and decision-making (or, you know, maybe actually run in transition with an athletic team) for the Bears to live up to their preseason billing.
UCLA
UCLA’s futility has been well-covered on the national scale but it’s worth repeating in this article. The Bruins, one of the Blue Blood college basketball elites, currently rank 146th in KenPom, good for 5th worst Power 6 school in the country ahead of Washington State, Boston College, Vanderbilt, and California. The Mick Cronin hire (seemingly UCLA’s 300th choice after exhausting other options) will never cease to amaze – his coaching style and demeanor is about as anti-Hollywood as you can find in the country. Oddly enough, though, it’s Cronin’s defense that’s been the main culprit of his team’s early struggles. Per KenPom, Cronin has had just three teams in 16 seasons with a higher-ranked offense than defense, and two of those were at Murray State. This Bruins group is on pace to be Cronin’s worst defensive team of his coaching career; though they 25th in country in defensive rebounding rate, UCLA is allowing the 8th highest 3P% and 47th highest FT rate. To boot, the Bruins are getting smoked in transition, in the post, in isolation, and off ball screens – basically they suck at stopping anything.
Go easy on Mick, though. He only has six ESPN top 100 recruits and a 4-star PG on his roster with which to work. Nobody in the country could win with that…