- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, Josiah-Jordan James, Santiago Vescovi, Davonte Gaines, Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua
Key Losses: Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Jalen Johnson
Key Newcomers: Victor Bailey Jr. (Oregon), EJ Anosike (Sacred Heart), Jaden Springer, Keon Johnson, Corey Walker Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook:
Tennessee took an expected downturn last season following the departure of Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bone, and Kyle Alexander. Those losses were made worse when star guard Lamonte Turner went down with a season-ending injury 11 games into the year, leaving Rick Barnes with a very young and inexperienced roster with limited depth. The 2020-21 season should be a major bounce back. In addition to the cadre of talented underclassmen returning, Barnes adds the nation’s 4th best recruiting class and two intriguing impact transfers. The Vols should be in position to compete for an SEC title and a top 3 seed in March.
UT’s offense underwent some growing pains in 2019-20 when it lost Turner. Then-freshman Josiah-Jordan James and, later, then-freshman Santiago Vescovi, were handed the keys without the requisite experience to be truly successful. Unsurprisingly, last season’s offensive unit was Barnes’ worst during his tenure in Knoxville – the Vols were unable to create shots near the rim and turned the ball over far too often. While Tennessee still ranked among the top teams in the country in assist rate, inconsistencies across the lineup hindered its success. With both these guys entering their second season, point guard play should be rock solid, and UT’s offense should flourish.
Vescovi, a Uruguay native who started all 19 games after becoming eligible in January, will be the primary ball handler this season. Anyone who watched Vescovi play last year could see he was clearly talented despite the turnover woes – he’s a pure shooter and tough, hard-nosed driver.
Vescovi’s Achilles Heel is his defense, which may be even more pronounced without the excellent Jordan Bowden alongside him in the backcourt. Barnes has plenty of athletic guards at his disposal to help hide his defensive liability, but hopefully this weakness was also a focus for Vescovi in the offseason.
James struggled in his first season in Knoxville after coming to school as a lauded 5-star recruit. The 6’6” sophomore can run the point, but he’s better off the ball where he can use his athleticism and shooting to attack from the wing. James’s focus this year should be on his shot selection and efficiency – in SEC play, he knocked down 42.6% of his 3PA but just 37.3% of his 2PA. He has all the tools in the world to excel in his second year.
Competition for the third starting backcourt spot and playing time behind the aforementioned sophomore studs will be heated. Barnes brings in two 5-star shooting guards and an Oregon transfer, all of whom expect to play major minutes. Freshman Jaden Springer, a McDonald’s All-American and the 15th ranked player in the class of 2020, is likely the favorite to start early in the year. Springer is a freak athlete who already possesses the requisite strength with which to compete in the SEC. While he doesn’t have the smoothest-looking jumper, it goes in at a high enough rate. Defensively, there’s hope Springer can have a significant impact with his strength and athleticism. Fellow 5-star top 20 freshman Keon Johnson should be hot on Springer’s tail for PT. Johnson is an even more freaky athlete than Springer, very long, and skinny. Defense is where Johnson could really shine with his length and quickness.
Oregon transfer Victor Bailey Jr. will be an interesting player to watch in 2020-21. Bailey left the Ducks in 2019 due to a dwindling role on the team – but it’s hard to see his playing time situation being significantly better in Knoxville. At the very least, Bailey should be used as a shooting specialist off the bench – he’s a career 38.3% 3P shooter on 206 attempts, and the Vols shot below 32% as a team last season. Bailey has the talent and pedigree to start alongside Pescovi and James, but there’s no guarantee. Finally, sophomore Davonte Gaines, a long wing who played scattered minutes last year, likely takes a backseat in playing time with the aforementioned influx of talent.
So Tennessee is stacked in the backcourt, but is it stacked in the frontcourt? With Yves Pons’s return to the fold, yes, yes, it is. Pons, the reigning SEC DPOY, really came into his own as a full-time starter in 2019-20. He proved he could shoot from the outside, played his role offensively, and was a menace on the defensive end. His return puts UT’s ceiling in the top five nationally.
Returning with Pons is 6’9” big man John Fulkerson, another forward who experienced a career renaissance in 2019-20. Fulkerson was the only Vol to earn All-SEC honors (2nd Team) last season, playing roughly 30 MPG after seeing just 12 MPG as a sophomore. Tennessee can run its offense through Fulkerson either in the post, at the elbow, or top of the key, similarly to how Barnes liked to use Grant Williams. Fulkerson is extremely efficient offensively, solid on the offensive glass, and ranked 4th in SEC in FT rate last year. Here’s a taste of his versatility:
Fulkerson was Tennessee’s only real post-up threat in 2019-20, scoring 1.00 PPP on the block, good for the 86th percentile nationally.
Pons and Fulkerson are locks to start in the frontcourt, but Sacred Heart grad transfer EJ Anosike is every bit good enough to start in the SEC. Anosike fills a major need for the Vols, a post who can clear space in the paint and score consistently at the rim.
Anosike was a member of the All-NEC First Team last year; he vacuums balls off the glass on both sides of the floor and uses his tree trunk frame to eat space on the block. His arrival improves Tennessee’s potential on both ends of the floor and Vols fans should be thrilled to have him.
Sophomore big men Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua, and Drew Pember will compete for time behind Fulkerson, Pons, and Anosike. Plavsic is a 7-foot center who played from January 15th on last year. Despite playing 116 minutes, Plavsic recorded zero blocks which seems unfathomable given his size. I think he has potential to be a serviceable backup big man, but that stat is a bit unnerving. Nkamhoua is a super-long 6’8” forward with good rebounding chops – he offers less size than Plavsic but more rim protection. Pember won’t play a whole lot as a sophomore, but he’s quality depth in the frontcourt and could blossom down the road.
4-star top 100 forward Corey Walker Jr. is the other rotational piece up front. Like his freshman cohorts, Walker is very athletic and capable of playing a few positions. His college size and strength combined with his length should allow him to earn time immediately even with so much coming back in the frontcourt. Top 130 prospect Malachi Wideman plans to play football and basketball for Tennessee this upcoming season, but his spot on the b-ball squad isn’t certain. He’s a human highlight reel on the floor and one of the best dunkers in the freshman class.
Barnes has had solid defenses at Tennessee his last three seasons and should have one again in 2020-21. The Vols allowed far too much at the rim last year despite ranking 5th in the land in block rate, leading to their 62nd overall defensive ranking per KenPom, the lowest in the past three years. The defensive glass was also an issue and UT was just 309th in PPP allowed on post-up situations. Anosike’s arrival, the return of Pons, and maturation of the sophomore forwards should help fortify these paint weaknesses. The Vols’ athletic perimeter should allow it to continue to take away the three-ball at a high rate, even with Pescovi checking in as a below average defender. While we won’t see a repeat of UT’s 6th ranked defense of 2018, there’s reason to believe they’ll be a top 50 defense in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: Tennessee has wild potential this year, especially with the return of Pons. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Vols pushing for a 1-seed come March. Barnes’s roster has talent and depth at every single position, and he has the history of leading elite teams in the past. Along with Kentucky, Tennessee stands as the clear favorite to capture the SEC crown and is a dark horse national title contender.