-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Co-Players of the Year: Cam Mack, R Jr., Prairie View A&M / Michael Weathers, R Sr., Texas Southern
Coach of the Year: Sean Woods, Southern
Co-Newcomers of the Year: Cam Mack, R Jr., Prairie View A&M / Michael Weathers, R Sr., Texas Southern
Freshman of the Year: Abba Lawal, Alabama A&M
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Southern
Key Returners: Micah Bradford, LaMarcus Lee, Ahsante Shivers, Damiree Burns, Jayden Saddler
Key Losses: Darius Williams, Amel Kuljuhovic
Key Newcomers: Andre Allen (Arizona State), Harrison Henderson (Milwaukee), Samkelo Cele (JUCO), Jamarcus Jones (JUCO), Isaiah Rollins (JUCO), Jason Holliday (Murray State), Andre Toure (Howard)
Lineup:
NOTE: According to Blue Ribbon, Skyler Baggs will not play this year due to medical issues
Outlook: Basketball is a copy-cat game, and the SWAC is a copy-cat league. Sean Woods knows this as well as anyone. A lot’s changed since Woods’ initial SWAC rodeo, back at Mississippi Valley State from 2009 to 2012. In *those days*, building a winner was done organically, via the traditional playbook of recruiting high schoolers. Then, harvesting that homegrown talent slowly overtime.
Somewhere along the way, that all changed. Perhaps the tipping point was Mike Davis’ emphatic SWAC entrance back in 2012, after he was muscled out of Indiana. It took Davis all but one year at Texas Southern to start running roughshod over the SWAC, notching four NCAA Tournament appearances in five straight seasons. Davis turned Texas Southern into glorified orphanage for high-major and mid-major defectors in need of a new home and a fresh start. The playbook was pretty simple, really: Hoard talent and cut it loose.
Woods has Davis’ playbook down pat. He got busy on the transfer wire last summer, staking claim to productive mid major performers Ahsante Shivers (Siena), Micah Bradford (Valpo) and Darius Williams (Cal State Bakersfield), among others. The impact was immediate. After an early 0-3 deficit in conference, the Jaguars shifted into overdrive. A feverish 13-2 surge to close out the year left Southern just one game shy of the title.
Shivers and Bradford will usher in a new wave of premier transfer talent, as the Jags set out for their first SWAC championship since 2014. The front man is Andre Allen, a top-15 JUCO prospect who Woods sees as the epicenter of Southern’s offense this season. Texas Southern usually monopolizes the blue-chip newcomers in this league, but Allen might be the best of the bunch. When healthy, a rare occurrence in his career to this juncture, Allen’s a pro-level talent – at 6’9, he can score inside or out. He’ll be a mismatch nightmare for opposing 5s, particularly as the lone big in Woods’ guard-centric lineup.
Allen’s a rare breed, but he’s just another brick in the wall. Not a single player tallied more than 10 points a game last year, and Woods routinely deploys a 10-plus man rotation. If you’re star struck transfers who wants to score 20 a game, this isn’t the place for you. The immense depth at Woods’ disposal enables relentless defensive aggression, both in terms of fresh legs and foul trouble mitigation. The first component is obvious. Shuffling in platoons of reinforcements ensures the Jaguars are constantly defending with vigor, rarely letting their foot off the gas due to fatigue. The second component remedies a common pitfall associated with pressure-intensive defenses. Hand checks and reaching fouls are simply inevitable. Inevitable foul trouble can strain thin rotations, precisely why Woods needs a well-stocked reserve.
Barttorvik projects that 68% of last year’s minutes return in 2021, which is a sturdy rotational foundation to build on. The only offseason departures just so happen to be the Jaguars’ two-man interior fortress, Darius Williams and Amel Kuljuhovic. On the surface, losing two skyscrapers up front (at least by SWAC standards) could dampen the Jaguars’ rebounding and rim protection. But, this defense is built on strength in numbers. The advanced on / off data at hooplens.com confirms this, as opponents scored at nearly the same rate of efficiency with Williams and Kuljuhovic on the floor, relative to when they sat. Southern checked in with the top ranked defense in the SWAC, despite posting the lowest block rate in the league.
Point is, the Jags will still be nails defensively, especially as Damiree Burns continues to blossom. Harrison Henderson is a complete crapshoot at this point in his career, a former top-100 recruit who’s never amounted to anything at his prior two destinations (USC and Milwaukee), but his 6’10 frame will intimidate smaller drivers – few teams in the SWAC boast that type of pedigree in a back up big man. Jason Holliday (Murray State) and Andre Toure (Howard) tack on DI newcomers to the mix and Samkelo Cele was outrageously productive at the JUCO level last year.
On offense, the Jags are a highly intelligent group, a stark contrast from the other renegade offenses around the league. Southern refuses to succumb to the SWAC’s frenetic pace. The Jaguars’ 260th ranked adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com, exemplifies that discipline. That’s not to say they won’t pounce on transition opportunities. In fact, 29% of Southern’s field goals came in transition last year, the 24th highest rate in the country, per hoop-math.com. On those possessions, the Jaguars cashed in at a respectable 54% clip. Woods straddles the tempo fence strategically. If there’s an avenue to scoring early in the shot clock, the Jags will attack. If not, they’re content to pull it back and run the offense.
Bottom Line: Woods masterfully managed the all the individual egos last year, proving he can juggle a deep rotation with many mouths to feed. The perimeter corps will set the tone in 2021, paced by Shivers, Bradford and two spark plugs, LaMarcus Lee and Jayden Saddler, but Allen’s addition puts the Jags over the top as the perennial frontrunner to claim the 2021 regular season crown.
2. Texas Southern
Key Returners: John Jones, Justin Hopkins, Yahuza Rasas, Chris Baldwin, Bryson Etienne, John Walker III
Key Losses: Eden Ewing, Tyrik Armstrong
Key Newcomers: Michael Weathers (Oklahoma State), Galen Alexander (Georgetown), Karl Nicholas (SFA), Jordan Gilliam (UC Riverside)
Lineup:
Outlook: Sean Woods isn’t the only one reading Mike Davis’ guidebook, “How to Dominate the SWAC in 2 Years or Less”. Johnny Jones, Davis’ successor, is following that same recipe: 1) Recruit experienced talent 2) Deploy experienced talent 3) Repeat.
Yet, two years into his Texas Southern tenure, in the wake of four NCAA Tournament appearances in five years under Mike Davis’ reign, Jones has consistently come up empty handed. The Tigers nearly fell off the SWAC podium last year, checking in at 3rd place with a *disappointing* 12-6 record. Recurring injuries certainly took a toll – only one player in the primary rotation appeared in all 32 games – but that alone doesn’t absolve Jones from blame. Year in and year out, Jones consistently does ‘less with more’. Thus, I’m less inclined to defend Jones, even in the face of a battered and bruised rotation last year.
This season’s prognosis is no different from the last two years. TXSO is, again, loaded with top-flight talent across the board. The only real question mark lies at point guard, where Tyrik Armstrong, the Tigers’ incendiary point guard catalyst, shined last season. Three of Texas Southern’s six conference losses coincided with Armstrong being out of the lineup, proof of his replacement value. Devoid of a structured offensive system, Jones desperately needs a reliable on-floor conductor.
Jones reeled in a super deluxe one-time rental to replace Armstrong, Michael Weathers, a former Oklahoma State defector. Weathers is a pro-level athlete, who’s poised to combust in Jones’ lawless system. He put up gaudy stats as a freshman at Miami Ohio but left a lot to be desired from an efficiency standpoint. A broken jumpshot pigeonholes Weathers into a one-dimensional playmaker, but it may not matter in the SWAC. He’s freakishly quick off the dribble, and capable of elevating over any rim protector he’ll meet at the summit this season.
Weathers has an abundance of riches around him, but he needs to prioritize feeding Chris Baldwin early and often. Baldwin’s pedestrian per game stats are highly skewed by an injury-ridden conference season, which capped his nightly minute count around 20-25 minutes a game. Unless you’re a devout Texas Southern booster, you probably missed the three-game stretch in December in which Baldwin hung 47 points in 72 minutes against Nevada, Oregon and Nevada – not exactly the Little Sisters of the Poor. A fully healthy and hungry Baldwin could set the league on fire this year. John Walker is another post-injury breakout candidate, who started eight of the first nine games of the season. In a forgettable November 30th non-con date with Lamar, Walker took over, leading the Tigers with 20 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists.
The other incumbents are proven commodities. Bryson Etienne is a hit-or-miss energy boost off the bench. He started the year with a few eye-popping performances at the onset of conference play, but slowly faded into oblivion in February. Yahuza Rasas is a workhorse inside, who will wreck havoc on the glass on both ends of the floor. John Jones is the token shooter – though, it’d be nice if he delivered on that prophecy this year. Jones couldn’t shake a shooting slump last season, as his 3-point conversion rate dropped to the low 30s. Jones hit 40% of his triples against SWAC foes back in 2019, and an 86% career free throw percentage indicates last year’s drought was more fluke than trend.
Galen Alexander (Georgetown) and Karl Nicholas (SFA) are two more transfers capable of wrecking smaller SWAC frontlines. Alexander presents a more dynamic forward option than the aforementioned Rasas, who can’t shoot or slash with Alexander’s ease. Nicholas is a bouncy fly swatter on defense and reliable rim runner on offense, but he’s more of a wildcard having not played since early in the 2018-19 campaign.
Stylistically, Johnny Jones’ blueprint isn’t rocket science. He keeps it simple, letting his unfair collection of talent roam free. Expect the Tigers to play at a blazing pace once again, especially after injuries forced Jones to ease off the accelerator last season. Nevermind Texas Southern’s putrid shooting ability – per Synergy, the Tigers ranked 346th nationally on spot up possessions last season. Against smaller, slower SWAC adversaries, the Tigers just need to get the ball to the rim and exert their superior physical gifts over helpless opponents.
Bottom Line: On many nights, the Tigers’ startling amount of talent will simply swallow up opponents – sort of a ‘men against the boys’ ordeal. However, Jones has swung and missed the last two seasons in extracting that next-level gear from his robust talent supply. There’s nothing embarrassing about Jones’ 26-10 conference record over the last two seasons, but many would argue those rosters, at least on paper, should run circles around this field. We’ll see if he can silence those critics in Act III in 2021.
3. Prairie View A&M
Key Returners: Lenell Henry, Faite Williams, DeWayne Cox
Key Losses: Gerard Andrus, Devonte Patterson, Darius Williams, Antione Lister, Chancellor Ellis
Key Newcomers: Cam Mack (Nebraska), Eric Hester (JUCO), Boe Nguidjol (Detroit), Damari Parris (Eastern Michigan), Jeremiah Gambrell (Western Kentucky), Dajour Joseph (New Mexico State)
Lineup:
Outlook: If it’s nice, make it thrice…
Despite losing all five starters to graduation, including Player of the Year Devonte Patterson, Bryon Smith has a SWAC title 3-peat in his crosshairs. At one point this summer, this looked like a pipe dream. A mass roster exodus turned the roster into a block of swiss cheese – that is, until Cam Mack penned his name on the commitment list.
PVAMU took a page out of Texas Southern’s playbook, nabbing a game-changing high-major transfer – Mack is just that, and then some. The former Nebraska standout was a human fireworks show last season. Off the floor issues notwithstanding, Mack’s pedigree makes the following scenario plausible: he might be one of the most dominant guards the league has seen in five years. Mack had a streak where he scored in double figures in 14 straight contests last year at Nebraska. Granted, those gaudy stats were inflated playing for a dismal Husker squad, but there’s no doubt he’ll light up the scoreboard against inferior competition this season.
Eastern Michigan transfer Damari Parris and returning guard Faite Williams will flank Mack on the perimeter, two excellent distributors. Smith would be wise to pair the less assertive Parris and Williams with Mack, to take the ball handling and game management responsibilities off Mack’s plate. DeWayne Cox is a defensive ball hawk, who will once again key Smith’s full-court press. Eric Hester, another JUCO prize, is another asset in the backcourt, a former top-100 recruit who resurrected his career at Tallahassee CC last season. Smith raved about his ability to shoot and defend in Blue Ribbon and heaped the same praise on Dajour Joseph. Joseph’s more of a traditional wing, so he’ll fill in at the 3 as a connector piece between the stable of guards and forwards. Jeremiah Gambrell, a former 3-star recruit and Western Kentucky transfer, figures to be in the mix for burn.
The logjam of names in that paragraph rebukes the notion that PVAMU’s 2021 roster is depleted. This isn’t a rebuild. This is a reload. The plethora of athletic guards and wings will be inserted right to Smith’s turnover machine, the gold standard of the press-happy SWAC. Per the chart below, the Panthers’ have become master thieves under Smith:
There’s no tolerance for clog-footed liabilities in this system. Rather than looking for traditional, plodding bigs, Smith hunts for agile forward on the recruiting trail. Devonte Patterson was the poster child for this ideal forward archetype, a nimble forward who can fly all over the floor. Lenell Henry, though not as dangerous as Patterson, fits this mold, as does Detroit transfer Boe Nguidjol.
Bottom Line: A total roster makeover will cause some to shy away from the Panthers this year. Don’t fall into that trap, folks. As awesome as Devonte Patterson was – just look at the splits from Prairie View’s first eight games without him, compared to the final 22 – Smith quickly refurbished the roster with promising replacements from all over. Gelling this heap of newcomers won’t be easy, but, unlike Johnny Jones at Texas Southern, Smith’s a talent optimizer. Expect him to extract the best version of all the new faces, especially Mack, who could have the inside track to Player of the Year.
4. Jackson State
Key Returners: Tristan Jarrett, Jonas James, Jayveous McKinnis
Key Losses: Roland Griffin, Venjie Wallis
Key Newcomers: Darius Hicks (Eastern Kentucky), Deng Bol (JUCO), Demarion Bariffe-Smith (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Dear Snacks,
We are forever indebted to you for this joy ride:
Thank you for your service.
Regards,
Weave
Ok, down to business. Speaking of, the business end of Wayne Brent’s operation is, and always has been, the defensive side of the ball. Once upon a time, Brent would frequently dip into his bag of tricks, mixing in a myriad of funky zone configurations. He’s slowly reverted to a man-to-man traditionalist the last few years – per Synergy, Jackson State played man on 77% of all defensive possessions last year – but the Tigers still defend with the same rigorous discipline. Part of this evolution is rooted in upgraded talent. No longer does Brent need to shelter in place, in order to cover up size and athleticism deficiencies. Now, he’s got the horses to matchup individually in man.
Relative to their frenzied SWAC counterparts, the Tigers lie on the conservative end of the defensive spectrum. They deny-everything on the wing, but rarely extend pressure beyond the timeline. Rather than gamble for steals, Brent would prefer to make the offense work for the entirety of the shot clock.
Jayveous McKinnis is the spine of Brent’s defense, the reigning conference Defensive Player of the Year. On a per possession basis, no one’s erased more shots in the SWAC than McKinnis over the last two seasons. He’s one-man-wrecking-crew on the glass as well – he posted the SWAC’s 1st and 3rd highest defensive and offensive rebound rate, respectively, last season. Offensively, he’s a load inside, often leaving defenders no choice but to foul him. Unfortunately, his free throw shooting stroke (49% career) could use retuning.
Deng Bol, a Cowley CC product (#19 rated JUCO team last season) should flourish as a multi-positional defender in Brent’s man and zone fronts. Bol, the DI NJCAA Eastern Division Defensive Player of the Year, suffocates opposing guards with swarming length and jet-quick agility. Per the video below, Bol’s omnipresent defensive destruction will be a handful for SWAC ballhandlers:
JUCO stalwart Demarion Bariffe-Smith projects as another multi-positional defensive gadget in Brent’s toolbox. Bariffe-Smith was a Swiss Army Knife for a 29-4 Des Moines Area CC team last year.
Brent struck gold by taking a chance on Roland Griffin last year, an Iona castaway who carried heavy off the court baggage heading into Jackson State. He’ll roll the dice with another highly sought after high-major transfer, Darius Hicks. Unlike Griffin, Hicks’ baggage is injury-related (not character-related), but he could take the league by storm if he can stay healthy for a full season. He’s dealt with multiple injuries over his career, the most recent of which ended his Eastern Kentucky tenure in late January.
Griffin was the hub through which the Tigers’ offense operated last year. Hicks is a wildcard to fill those shoes in 2021, so expect Tristan Jarrett to step into the undisputed alpha dog role this year. Jarrett’s a crafty downhill slasher and tough shot maker, particularly from 15-feet and in. However, opposing defenses have had success packing the paint against him, which exposes his shoddy outside jumper. Despite converting under 27% from behind the stripe last year, Jarrett hoisted a whopping 162 attempts. Jarrett came to Jackson State with a bucket-getter reputation, but he needs to stop chucking from the cheap seats.
Jonas James returns as Jarrett’s sidekick, a 6’0 playmaker with tremendous vision at point. He’s an extension of Brent on the floor, a true floor general who patiently picks his spot to score. James will need to adapt to a retooled offense this year, per Brent’s offseason interview with Blue Ribbon. Brent hinted at opening up the offense through more pick-n-roll and 4-out looks to modernize and diversify the offense. The Tigers won’t abandon their deliberate, half-court motion roots, as Brent’s always preached patience and ball movement. JSU will look to run if there’s daylight ahead, but unlike most SWAC foes, discipline trumps temptation.
Brent’s affection for defense may have ignored a glaring void in the shooting department, particularly on the heels of Dontelius Ross and Venjie Wallis’ departures. Ross and Wallis were the only two Tigers to shoot better than 38% from downtown in conference play last year – remove their individual shooting splits and JSU shot below 25% from last season. This is highly concerning, especially in the face of a more perimeter-oriented offense that will be optimized by floor spacing. If the Tigers continue to lay bricks from the outside, driving and cutting real estate will quickly evaporate.
Bottom Line: Wayne Brent’s junk defenses always produce results – for reference, Jackson State’s placed in the SWAC’s top-4 in overall defense for seven years running. That lowers the bar to clear on the other end of the floor, but the loss of Griffin and Wallis eliminates the Tigers’ best inside and outside scoring threat, respectively. Still, betting against Wayne Brent with talent is a fool’s errand.
Tier 2
5. Alabama A&M
Key Returners: Cameron Tucker, Garrett Hicks, EJ Williams, Jalen Johnson
Key Losses: Cameron Alford
Key Newcomers: Myles Parker (Auburn), Abba Lawal, Dailin Smith, London Riley
Lineup:
Outlook: Dylan Howard is taking the road less traveled. In a conference overflowing with transfers, building a young roster from the ground up requires patience. Unlike the bonafide blue-chip recruits, 3-star and 2-star prospects take time to develop – and there’s no guarantee they’ll stick around, either.
Howard learned this the hard way this summer. Freshman phenom Cameron Alford, the marquee prospect in Howard’s heralded 2020 recruiting class, took his talents to Tennessee after laying waste to the SWAC last season. Alford was the motor behind last year’s blistering hot start – Alabama A&M went 11-3 against-the-spread to start the year – and one of four rookie starters thrown right to the lion’s den from day 1.
The Baby Bulldogs were bullied in their first five games, but the hardened calluses from those defeats started to pay off in late November. From November 22nd – December 22nd, they notched impressive wins over Troy, Jacksonville State and North Alabama. The advanced metrics confirmed the uptick, too. Per Barttorvik.com, the Bulldogs played like the 3rd best team in the SWAC during that span on a net efficiency basis, trailing only Texas Southern and PVAMU.
Unfortunately, the upward trajectory started to turn south and the young pups crashed head on into the proverbial freshman wall. After parlaying the non-con momentum into two SWAC wins out of the gate, the Bulldogs squandered their next six games. They never regained that non-con mojo, ultimately stumbling across the finish line with a 5-13 conference record.
It was an anticlimactic finish, but an excusable one given Howard’s devout commitment to developing his star-studded freshman class. Had Alford not taken his talents to Rocky Top, Bama A&M would be on the Tier 1 doorstep in the Weave’s projected standings. A physical 6’1 guard, Alford was simply a gamechanger on both ends. Stripping the nucleus of such a special talent stings, but the perimeter core remains stable with Cameron Tucker, Garrett Hicks and Jalen Johnson still intact.
Howard plucked two more snipers, Dailin Smith and London Riley, from the high school ranks to buoy the Bulldogs’ outside shooting supply. Despite their youth and non-existent DI experience, Brandon Miller’s demise last year could present an opportunity for Smith or Riley to leapfrog him in the pecking order – especially if they can cash in on their bonus land chances.
Beware of the Bulldog frontline, which now sports not one but two mountainous bigs, EJ Williams (6’10) and Abba Lawal (7’0). Williams, a 275-pound immovable object, was the solo anchor of the Bulldogs’ defense last year, fundamentally altering the opposition’s shot selection all by himself. His heavy feet make him susceptible to exploitation on the perimeter, but he’s a disruptor around the rim. Per the chart below (from hooplens.com), notice the 10% difference between Alabama A&M’s defensive 2-point field goal percentage with and without Williams on the floor:
Imagine what those splits could look like this year with Lawal roaming the lane. Compared to the bulky Williams, the 210-pound Lawal is a string bean, but his verticality in unrivaled. Lawal swatted five shots a game at Hargrave Military Academy last year, earning him the conference Defensive Player of the Year honors. Collectively, Williams and Lawal will underpin what should be one of the SWAC’s best defenses in 2021. Auburn transfer Myles Parker is another enticing piece, who boomeranged back to his hometown after being buried on a loaded Auburn roster. Despite coming from a Power-6 school, Parker wasn’t courted by many high-major programs coming out of high school – thus, expectations of his impact should be tempered.
Bottom Line: Alford’s sudden exit notwithstanding, the Bulldogs check all the ‘breakout team’ boxes. Prolific backcourt (Tucker and Hicks). Bonafide bigs (Williams and Lawal). Competent complementary pieces (Parker, Johnson, Smith and Riley). Check, check and check. Throw all of that into the stew and Alford has something special brewin’ in Huntsville.
6. Alcorn State
Key Returners: Troymain Crosby, Arne Morris, Kobe Wilson, Isaiah Attles
Key Losses: Corey Tillery, Deshaw Andrews, Maurice Howard
Key Newcomers: Jacoby Ross (Alabama State), Kurk Lee (Drexel), David Pierce III (JUCO), Tyree Corbett (JUCO), Oddyst Walker*** (SFA)
***needs waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: If you can’t beat ‘em, join em take their top assistant. After watching Prairie View A&M hoist the SWAC chalice for two straight seasons, Alcorn State poached one of their own, Landon Bussie, one of the brains behind the Panthers’ operation. Such experience is worth bolding, underlining and italicizing on any coaching resume, but Bussie is more than just a well-regarded understudy to Byron Smith. He’s a magnet on the recruiting trail, which should pay major dividends down the road.
Until then, he’ll bridge the gap with a dynamite transfer twofer, Jacboy Ross and Kurk Lee. These two little dynamos are a perfect yin and yang complement: Ross, measured and steady. Lee, explosive and dynamic. Ross is a rare intra-conference transfer, coming over from Alabama State where he ran the point for three consecutive seasons. Ross hasn’t been able to replicate his stellar rookie campaign back in 2018, as his efficiency eroded away the last two years. Lee also arrives in Mississippi in the midst of soul searching, praying that he stays healthy for once in his career (Lee’s played a grand total of nine games since 2018). Like Ross, Lee peaked as a freshman at Drexel, when he stuffed the stat sheet to the tune of 15 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals a game during the 2017 campaign. Lee’s injury risk is at level 10, but if he can recapture even 80% of that rookie magic, the Braves may hold claim to one of the best backcourts in the SWAC.
The Lee and Ross buzz is warranted, but this is still Troymain Crosby’s team. The slithery wing is a master slasher, able to attack the goal from a variety of angles. He can contort his body to finish over and around interior defenders or go through them to draw the whistle – he waterboarded Mississippi Valley State last season with 22 points from the charity stripe.
David Pierce III, a JUCO standout from decorated Chipola Community College, will be the thunder to Crosby’s lightning. He’s a devastating driver as well but does it more with strength than speed. Pierce’s barrel-chested frame will be a chore for weaker SWAC guards and wings to corral when he’s on the move. And he if shoots it anywhere near as well as last year (41% from downtown), Pierce may be a force to a reckoned with right away.
Despite the alluring assets in Bussie’s war chest, the Braves’ offense is bound to regress on the heels of Maurice Howard and DeShaw Andrews’ departures. Howard was one of the most prolific shooters to come through the SWAC in the last decade, and Andrews actually outshot Howard on a percentage basis last year, checking in with the SWAC’s top 3-point percentage. Lee and Ross are apt shooters in their own right, but the mid-range area is closer to their comfort zone. Arne Morris and Isaiah Attles are the overlooked incumbents in the backcourt, two quintessential glue pieces destined for supporting roles in 2021 alongside Lee and Ross.
Up front, Kobe Wilson likely slides into the starting lineup as the token 5, fresh off an impressive junior campaign backing up Alonzo Campbell. Wilson usurped Campbell late in the season in the rotational depth chart, in large part due to his savvy shot blocking technique – he posted the league’s 3rd highest block rate, while committing just 2.9 fouls per 40 minutes. Outside of Wilson, traditional bigs are non-existent on this roster, but Bussie’s success at PVAMU’s was built on versatility, not size – thus, expect hybrid forwards, such as Crosby and Tyree Corbett, to play the bulk of their minutes as the de facto 4.
“All 11 of our kids coming in are guys who can run and score the basketball, and that’s how we built this team,” Bussie told Blue Ribbon this summer.
Bottom Line: Alcorn’s 5th place projection in the SWAC coach’s poll is a show of respect for Bussie and the PVAMU coaching staff. He knows the league like the back of his hand and didn’t shy away from touting his knowledge of Alcorn’s existing roster from the scouting crow’s nest at Prairie View last year. Ross, Lee, Crosby and Pierce will be a handful for opposing defenses and should expedite Bussey’s program rebuild timeline.
7. Grambling
Key Returners: Kelton Edwards, Cam Christon, Prince Moss, Trevell Cunningham
Key Losses: Ivy Smith, DeVante Jackson, Travon Bunch
Key Newcomers: Cameron Woodall (JUCO), Reyhan Cobb (JUCO), Dewayne Walker (JUCO), Brian Thomas*** (Florida Gulf Coast), Peyton Taylor (JUCO)
***needs waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: Stepping into a job that’s seen more turnover than a fast food restaurant requires a special level of confident – some might even say arrogance. But Donte Jackson didn’t care. Despite being Grambling State’s fifth coach since 2009, he’s met the challenge head on. Since that storybook inaugural 2018 campaign, Jackson’s proven he’s far from a one-hit-wonder, finishing 3rd and 4th in the SWAC standings the last two years.
However, this season, he faces his toughest test since arriving at Grambling. The Tigers wave goodbye to two All-Conference players, Ivy Smith and DeVante Jackson, along with human giant Travon Bunch. Smith will be the toughest to replace, Grambling’s pulse for three seasons who started every game except one since 2018. Replacing a point guard of Smith’s caliber is virtually impossible, but Jackson (Donte) will reload with another smorgasbord of JUCO transfers.
Cameron Woodall and Reyhan Cobb are two of the highest ranked JUCO newcomers in the conference, both of whom cracked JUCORecruiting.com’s top-100 prospect list:
“Reyhan can shoot, handle, post it, he can do just about anything on the court. I think him and Cameron Woodall, the other combo (forward) we signed, will play a big part in what we’re doing this year,” Jackson told the News Star this summer. “They can play multiple positions.”
On the surface, Cobb and Woodall look like home run recruits. However, there’s cause for concern here: their hearty production on the JUCO circuit last season was likely inflated by poor competition.
Woodall’s most recent stop, Copiah-Lincoln, is a Division I program, but ranked near the bottom of the DI barrel last year, finishing with a dismal 7-16 overall record. Meanwhile, Cobb poured in 14 points a game at National Park College, which also warrants an asterisk given the Division II level of competition. In general, appraising JUCO prospects is always a tough nut to crack, but it’s worth contextualizing Cobb and Woodall’s lofty pedigree.
On the opposite end of the spectrum (less production, better team) lies Dwayne Walker, a JUCO import who clocked limited minutes for an excellent 27-5 Chipola College squadron back in 2019. A lauded prospect coming out of high school, Walker figures to be a useful utility man in the backcourt.
Three proven performers, Kelton Edwards, Cam Christon and Prince Moss, offer Jackson a refreshing dose of stability in case the JUCOs don’t pan out. Defensively, this super-sized backcourt will be a forest for opposing guards to navigate, as all three stand 6’7 with long arms. Jackson’s excited to resurrect his position-less pressing defensive scheme this year, which will be aided by this trio’s fungibility:
“We felt like we ended up getting too big [last year] and it took away from our pressing from our first year,” said Jackson. “Last year, we played more through the post. We needed to become more versatile and we made sure we found some good combo guard that were 6-3, 6-4, to take some pressure off of the point guard. Ivy came up big for us, but we wanted to see if we could get bigger on the wing and more skilled with people handling the ball that could get to the basket.”
Trevell Cunningham will tee up this rangy perimeter triumvirate as Ivy Smith’s default successor at point guard. As Jackson alluded to in Blue Ribbon’s offseason interview, he wants to free up the floor for his guard and wing-heavy rotation to slash and shoot, a seismic shift from last year’s ground-and-pound game. Without DeVante Jackson and Travon Bunch clogging up the lane, Grambling can unleash its speed and athleticism without boundaries. Peyton Taylor, another JUCO import, will push Cunningham for run at the point, a rapid riser in the JUCO ranks.
A big waiver decision looms with Brian Thomas, a Florida Gulf Coast transfer who Jackson believes can anchor the defense immediately. Bunch and Jackson’s ill-timed departures leave a gaping hole in the Tigers’ defensive gut, but Thomas, a shot blocking specialist, could patch up those holes right away.
Bottom Line: The Tigers have been a 3-year tenant in the SWAC’s upper echelon, but that streak is in jeopardy in the wake of Ivy Smith and Devante Jackson’s expiration. Jackson’s reputation for swooping up solid JUCOs should prevent a major tumble in the 2021 standings, but regression is unavoidable.
8. Alabama State
Key Returners: D.J. Heath, Brandon Battle, Tyrese Robinson
Key Losses: Jacoby Ross
Key Newcomers: Trace Young (JUCO), Kenny Strawbridge (JUCO), LaTrell Tate (JUCO), EJ Clark (JUCO), Kareem Clark (JUCO)
Lineup:
NOTE: Alabama State has decided to only compete in conference games this season. Since the Hornets are ineligible for postseason play, it makes intuitive sense that they would err on the side of caution.
Outlook: Alabama State wants a piece of the action. The HBCU headline grabbing hires, both on the hardwood and on the gridiron, are a seductive force for SWAC programs looking to make a splash.
ASU bit hard for Mo Williams, the former LeBron James sidekick who’s now trying college coach on for size. Mo spent the last two years at Cal State Northridge after a stint on the AAU circuit.
The freshly promoted head honcho certainly sounds bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, giddy to tackle his newly inherited rebuilding project. But, deep down, he must know he’s in for a rude awakening. Transfers and graduations decimated ASU’s roster this summer, leaving just a few remnants for Williams to build from:
“It’s a whole new system. A whole new team,” Williams said. “We have eight new players.”
D.J. Heath’s decision to stay loyal is a sigh of relief, a proven point guard who can steer the ship. The former Canisius transfer and 3-star recruit isn’t a world-beater, but he’s a cool customer in the backcourt.
The other two leftovers are Brandon Battle and Tyrese Robinson, two garbage men in the middle who do all the dirty work on both ends. Outside of that, there’s a lot of loose ends for the herd of JUCOs to tie up.
Parsing through the muddy JUCO rankings to pinpoint which of the newcomers will shine the brightest is tedious. In terms of Williams’ style of play, he tipped his hand in Blue Ribbon, underscoring the importance of shooting and floor spacing. In that light, Williams exudes confidence in LaTrell Tate (40%), EJ Clark (41%), Kareem Clark’s (44%) 3-point shooting prowess, three lethal marksman who lit it up at their prior JUCO stops. They’re not one-trick-ponies, either. Clark and Tate carry a true scorer’s mentality and should thrive in Williams’ perimeter-oriented scheme with oodles of space to operate.
Additionally, Williams hopes to rid ASU of dinosauric positional labels, and pivot to a nomenclature that enables versatility.
“The way the offense is, there’s not ‘shooting guard’ or ‘small forward’,” Williams told Blue Ribbon. “It’s two wings, just like we don’t have a center; it’s two forwards.”
That vision jives with the roster construction, built on a sturdy crop of hybrid wings and forwards. Trace Young is the leading man of the group, a former Wyoming commit who was a jack-of-all-trades for a 28-5 John Logan team last season (DI JUCO program).
Kenny Strawbridge played Robin to Teddy Allen’s Batman at Western Nebraska last season. Strawbridge, Western’s second leading scorer (15 PPG), makes his pay at the rim, where he can flaunt his enviable 6’5 frame. Jordan O’Neal also fits in the multi-positional mold, a live athlete who should instantly boost the Hornets’ rebounding and rim protection.
However, achieving on-floor cohesion, particularly with a stable of new players in the midst of a pandemic, could be a chore this year. Williams admitted his offense is rather complex, not ideal for a condensed offseason learning period.
“It’s a difficult offense to pick it up, but once you pick it up, it’s flawless,” Williams told Blue Ribbon. “And it’s hard to guard because it’s hard to pick up.”
Flawless, eh Mo? I’ll wait and see on that one…
Bottom Line: Winning right away shouldn’t be high on Williams’ to-do list this year – remember, the Hornets are ineligible for the 2021 postseason anyway. Installing culture and system will be top priority, as is identifying which of the newcomers have real staying power going forward. A rocky ride awaits Mr. Williams in his first SWAC rendezvous, but no one expects Mo to reap immediate returns – all in due time, everyone.
Tier 3
9. Arkansas Pine Bluff
Key Returners: Shaun Doss, Terrance Banyard, Markedric Bell, Dequan Morris, Nick Jones*
Key Losses: Marquell Carter
Key Newcomers: Jalen Lynn (JUCO), Joshuwa Johnson (JUCO), Omar Parchman (JUCO)
*Nick Jones is still on the 2021 school roster. This preview assumes he recently received a medical hardship waiver, though Blue Ribbon’s interview with George Ivory implied he was gone.
Lineup:
Outlook: Cover your eyes, kids. The following content contains disturbing images that may not be suitable for children.
No one in college basketball was inepter (more inept?) at putting the ball in the basket than the Lions last season. Pine Bluff was offensively challenged to start, but once Shaun Doss went down for the year, the offense sank to the bottom of the Mariana Trench.
For reference, Mississippi Valley State scored at a rate of 89.8 points per 100 possessions last year, a whole 10 points above Pine Bluff. To contextualize that gap, Gonzaga, the nation’s top ranked offense last year, posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.3. You have to scroll all the way down to the 35th best offense in the country, North Texas, to clear that cavernous 10-point margin. In fact, 2015 was the last time a team dipped below 80 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric – so yes, the Lions made history last year.
Can a healthy Doss cure this disease all by himself? That depends. If Doss plays a re-run of his stellar 2019 campaign, the Lions may be back in business. Doss was one of four SWAC players to post an O-Rating above 105 in conference games that year. He made a killing at the free throw line, attempting 122 free throws in 18 contests and converted those freebies at a steady 72% mark.
Doss’ injury was just one of many boo boos the Lions suffered last season. Two critical cogs, Terrance Banyard and Nick Jones, both missed time, as did the lesser used Roberty Boyd. Head coach George Ivory is calling upon those three, along with Markedric Bell, to lend a helping hand to Doss.
Defensively, Ivory will likely play the same old hits. Pine Bluff’s defensive identity is etched in stone, characterized by a confounding amoeba zone. It’s designed to bait guard and wings into high risk passes, which can lead to turnovers and easy run outs going the other way. However, the Lions just haven’t been as anticipatory in recent years, posting modest steal and turnover rates for two years running. And since Trent Steen graduated in 2017, rebounding and rim protecting have been non-existent, which is exacerbated by the zone structure. Per Synergy, opponents converted at a 68.3% clip at the rim last year, the 8th highest clip in America.
The silver lining to last year’s debacle? In the wake of last year’s train wreck, NO one, not even the SWAC coaches, are taking Pine Bluff seriously this year.
Could Jalen Lynn and Joshuwa Johnson, two JUCOs expected to crack the rotation, move the needle? Their pedigree pales in comparison to some of the other JUCO prospects found elsewhere around the SWAC, so banking on them as saviors is wishful thinking.
Bottom Line: With roughly four starters back in the saddle, presumably healthy, this level of year-to-year continuity is a rarity in the SWAC. Barttorvik.com’s preseason projection algorithm leans heavily on returning minutes, which explains why his model has the Lions pegged as the 4th best team in the league (264th overall).
As much as I respect Bart’s projections, I just can’t get there with this roster, even with Doss back. Even during Doss’ stellar 2019 campaign, when he played 2nd fiddle to Martaveous McKnight, the Lions barely eclipsed the .500 mark in conference. Relative to that team, this roster is a definitive downgrade.
10. Mississippi Valley State
Key Returners: Caleb Hunter
Key Losses: Michael Green, Torico Simmons, Quinton Alston, Jordan Lyons
Key Newcomers: Kam'Ron Cunningham (JUCO), Kevin Cone (JUCO) Jibril Harris (JUCO), Keiondre Jefferson (JUCO), Treylan Smith, Devin Gordon, Tirus Smith*** (Louisiana)
***needs waiver
*NOTE: As of 11/15, the official school roster had not been updated*
Lineup:
Outlook: When the Delta Devils surrendered over 110 points in three consecutive games to start the season last year, the writing was on the wall. First year head coach Lindsey Hunter managed to find the winner’s circle only thrice in SWAC play, despite two encouraging efforts against Southern and Texas Southern at home. Latching on to those brief flashes of hope is a mild reason to be optimistic above an upswing in 2021, but the Delta Devils have a lot of ground to make up - like a lot.
The beacon of hope, albeit dim, is Hunter’s son, Caleb Hunter, the SWAC’s reigning Freshman of the Year. Hunter. Ignoring Hunter’s shaky shot-selection for a second, the Delta Devils’ dynamo is poised to put up video game stats in 2021. Aided by his daddy’s feverish pace, Hunter’s ‘And-1’ handles and acrobatic shot making carries take-over potential.
Ironically, one of the Delta Devils three conference wins last year came with Hunter out of the lineup, but he hung 30 in two of MVSU’s final three games, including the regular season finale victory over Arkansas Pine Bluff. Hunter was fairly efficiency by SWAC standards (92 O-Rating in league play), which should spike in year 2.
Kam'Ron Cunningham comes to Itta Bena from the panhandle, where he averaged 11 PPG for Dayton State, a perennial JUCO powerhouse - though, they had an off year last season by their standards (17-13 overall). Cunningham’s a load to keep out of the lane, armed with a sturdy frame and an airtight handle. Cunningham buried over 40% of his triples last season, many of which were on the move and off the dribble – per the highlight reel below, it’s clear he’s got a knack for making tough shots look easy:
In the wake of Quinton Alston’s departure, Cunningham will be the surefire 2nd banana on offense, forming a flammable 1-2 punch with Hunter. The question is, do they have enough help? Better yet, do they have any help?
Rookie Treylan Smith will vie for a starting nod, another plus-sized wing who can play a variety of positions, as will Devin Gordon, a 6’4 combo guard from North Carolina. But, outside of that, the revamped roster skews forward and big heavy.
Defensively, Hunter needs to repair the transition defense and rebounding pores immediately. Per Synergy, no team surrendered more second chance on put backs or buckets in transition than MVSU last season. The talent vacuum is partly to blame, but improving the connectivity, positioning and general alertness would go a long way. Richard Rivers was pegged to be an interior stop gate last year, but he just couldn’t stay on the floor. If Louisiana transfer Tirus Smith can expedite his rehabilitation (waiver also pending), he could help stop the bleeding inside. Until then, look for the JUCO trio of Kevin Cone, Jibirl Harris and Keiondre Jefferson to hold down the fort.
Bottom Line: From a personnel perspective, Hunter went fishing for longer, rangier wings and forwards in the JUCO pond. This alone *should * uplift what was the country’s worst defense last year, but Hunter, from a coaching perspective, owns responsibility for fixing the structural warts as well. He’ll let his son carry the torch on offense, who should benefit from Cunningham’s presence as a viable secondary scoring option, but the Delta Devils’ relative gains in 2021 are destined to be marginal at best.