- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Stanley Umude, Jr., South Dakota
Coach of the Year: Dave Richman, North Dakota State
Newcomer of the Year: Doug Wilson, Jr., South Dakota State
Freshman of the Year: Owen McGlashan, Fr., Denver
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. North Dakota State
Key Returners: Tyson Ward, Vinnie Shahid, Rocky Kreuser, Tyree Eady, Jared Samuelson, Cameron Hunter, Jarius Cook, Sam Griesel, Chris Quayle
Key Losses: Deng Geu, Jordan Horn
Key Newcomers: Odell Wilson (Redshirt), Maleeck Harden-Hayes, Noah Christensen, Tyler Witz (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: NDSU made an unlikely run to capture the Summit League auto-bid last season after entering the conference tournament as the 4-seed. The Bison won nine of their final 12 games, earning a 16-seed in the Big Dance and knocking off NC Central before ultimately succumbing to Duke in a respectable effort. This season, Dave Richman brings back all five starters and nearly all his deep bench to make another run at the NCAA Tournament.
Richman implements a “no-run” and gun style on offense. The Bison were the slowest team in the Summit last season but shot the 11th highest rate of three-pointers in the country. NDSU has a wealth of shooters, wings, and guards, so Richman will often go with a 4-out or 5-out look offensively. Within the spread attack, guards are constantly run off ball screens where they’re free to take the ball to the hole, dump to the (usually popping) roll man, or kick to an open corner or wing shooter. Senior point guard Vinnie Shahid thrived in the pick-n-roll last year, scoring 1.071 PPP off ball screens, good for the 94th percentile in the country. Shahid took control of the offense last year after coming over from the JUCO ranks, winning the Summit’s Newcomer of the Year award and earning a spot on the Honorable Mention All-Conference squad. Shahid’s ability to create his own shot from anywhere on the floor makes him one of the most potent scorers in the Summit – expect the 5’11” guard to compete for Summit POY this season.
Shahid went for 20 points against the Blue Devils in the First Round
NDSU’s other primary scorer is senior wing Tyson Ward, who occasionally fills the “4” spot in Richman’s guard-heavy lineup with his ability to rebound (led team in RPG in ’18-19) and score in the post. While transition opportunities are rare in the Bison offense, Ward is excellent when pushing the pace in the open floor. Like Shahid, Ward can create his own shot and is particularly good at earning trips to the foul line, ranking 6th in the Summit in FT rate last season. Both Ward and Shahid proved they could compete against the best competition in the country last year; there’s not a more potent combo in the Summit outside of South Dakota’s Hagedorn and Umude than the NDSU duo.
The guy guarding Ward is named Zion
Rounding out Richman’s starting five this year will be junior forward Rocky Kreuser, senior guard Jared Samuelson, and wing Sam Griesel. Kreuser spaces the floor from the 5-spot giving Richman five legitimate three-point threats on the floor at the same time. He scored 1.259 PPP off rolls last season, primarily via popping behind the arc and launching open threes off his guards’ drives. Defensively, Kreuser protects the rim better than most stretch bigs, ranking 2nd in the Summit in block rate in 2018-19. Samuelson is the best shooter on the squad and knocked down 45.8% of his overall threes last season (28th nationally) and 48.7% in Summit play (2nd in the conference). Griesel started nearly every game as a freshman, occupying either the 3 or 4. Tyree Eady, a 6’5” sophomore, stepped into Griesel’s starting role when Griesel went down with injury; he knocked down 45% of his three-point tries in conference play.
Richman will once again have one of the deeper rotations in the country. Backup PG Cameron Hunter started nearly every game as a freshman but took a backseat to Shahid when the JUCO transfer came to town. Hunter is yet another knockdown shooter who can create out of the pick-n-roll. Returners Jarius Cook, Chris Quayle, and Jaxon Knotek will each have supporting roles in the lineup this season. Knotek is particularly intriguing after leading the team in scoring (17 PPG) on its summer trip to Puerto Rico despite playing just nine games last season.
Richman addressed his squad’s lack of frontcourt depth with his latest recruiting class, adding three forwards and welcoming another from a redshirt year. Odell Wilson, a redshirt freshman, should see plenty of time at the 5 this season with his size and ability to punish opponents inside. The 6’6” former all-state football player tips the scale at 250 pounds. Maleeck Harden-Hayes is a long, athletic high flyer who can shoot and defend multiple positions. Given NDSU’s defensive struggles last season, Harden-Hayes appears to be in line for a key role on the wing. Fellow freshman Noah Christensen is a skinny forward with shot blocking potential and JUCO import Tyler Witz is an old-school bruiser inside.
Bottom Line: NDSU will be the deepest and most experienced squad in the Summit this season and the odds-on favorite to win the conference. A conservative defense that didn’t do anything particularly well last year will need to improve for the Bison to earn a respectable seed in March and have a shot at advancing past the First Round.
2. South Dakota
Key Returners: Stanley Umude, Triston Simpson, Tyler Peterson, Cody Kelley, Tyler Hagedorn, Brandon Armstrong, Matt Johns
Key Losses: Trey Burch-Manning, Dan Jech, Logan Power
Key Newcomers: Ty Chisom (JUCO), Hunter Goodrick, Kruz Perrott-Hunt
Lineup:
Outlook: Todd Lee kept the boat afloat in his first season in Vermillion, riding four wins in South Dakota’s final five games to finish 6th in the Summit despite dealing with a myriad of injuries. Star forward Tyler Hagedorn tore his foot prior to the start of the season, completely decimating USD’s size and forcing Lee to play majority of his lineups with five guards on the floor. Now with Hagedorn back in the fold and the return of four starters, Lee’s 2019-20 squad will be the favorites, along with North Dakota State, to cut down the Summit League nets in March.
South Dakota struggled overall offensively last season, prone to poor shot selection partially as a result of a lack of size. But, the Coyotes were among the best teams in the country at not turning the ball over and had arguably the best ball movement in the Summit. Lee’s ability to play five guys on the floor who could all drive and shoot from the perimeter caused matchup problems, which the Coyotes were able to exploit, usually by way of the drive and earning trips to the foul line.
Hagedorn’s return will take this offense to another level. At 6’10”, he’s a legitimate post presence but also has the ability to shoot from the outside. With Hagedorn back in the fold, Stanley Umude, the breakout star in the Summit last year, can play a more natural position on the wing or as a small-ball 4. The big man will also help solve the Coyotes’ rebounding issues; Lee clearly had a focus on having his squad sprint back on defense to limit transition, but part of the reason USD ranked 342nd in the nation in OR% was due to its severe lack of size. Defensively, Hagedorn adds a little more muscle to the interior, an area which USD struggled to protect. USD earned a reputation of playing high-energy, physical defense last season, which should continue in 2019-20 and improved by the addition of a true big.
Umude is an absolute stud and I will be singing his praises all season long. After barely seeing the floor as a freshman under Craig Smith, Umude took control of the team last season, ranking 4th in the league in usage and earning a spot on the All-Summit First Team. As mentioned above, Umude often played the 5 in Lee’s all-guard lineups last season, an area which allowed him to destroy slower defenders on offense but also exposed him in the paint against post players. Umude held his own defensively, ranking 3rd in the Summit in block rate, but he was clearly put on an island when forced to play out of position. Now with Hagedorn in the lineup, Umude can wreak havoc defensively against more appropriate matchups…
…and still exploit mismatcheds offensively off the drive or in the post (scored 1.00 PPP on post-ups last season; 83rd percentile nationally):
Umude is the best all-around player in the Summit and his game should springboard to a whole new stratosphere in 2019-20.
The duo of Hagedorn and Umude is enough for any Summit team to be picked in the preseason top three of the conference, but Lee also has a talented backcourt to support his two superstars. Triston Simpson, an Honorable Mention All-Summit member last season, led the league in minutes in 2018-19 and shot 39.5% from deep in conference play. He took over primary point guard duties from Cody Kelley as the year went on and uses his quickness, often off hand-offs and ball screens, to get to the rack and draw fouls (3rd best foul rate in the Summit). Simpson is capable of scoring in isolation and can serve as a late shot clock option along with Umude and Hagedorn. Kelley, formerly of Wyoming, adds shooting (45.7% from three in conference play) along with ball handling. Senior wing Tyler Peterson is mostly a slasher from the wing who drastically needs to improve his outside shot (career 24.8% three-point shooter).
Lee kept a short bench last season due to injuries and with two transfers sitting out this year, he’ll likely maintain a shorter rotation once again in 2019-20. Brandon Armstrong will resume his role as “instant offense” off the bench; he was very efficient off the pine last season and adds more shooting to a roster full of long-ball options. Matt Johns will be the primary big man backup after starting ten games last season. He’s mostly a stretch forward, lending little assistance in the rebounding department last season, but his size will be key. Johns’s fellow Australian, Hunter Goodrick, comes in with a similar skillset; the freshman can drive and shoot with a smooth lefty stroke. Simeon Jovic, a redshirt freshman, will also provide size up front in a reserve role.
Rounding out USD’s backcourt rotation will be JUCO transfer Ty Chisom and New Zealand import Kruz Perrott-Hunt. Chisom comes by way of Indian Hills, a powerhouse school in the JUCO circuit, and adds athleticism, defense, and a hard-nosed style of play to the Coyotes roster. He should see major minutes in his first season in Vermillion. Perrott-Hunt is a smooth combo guard, but likely doesn’t see much time in his freshman year behind the slew of other backcourt options.
Bottom Line: The Summit is a two-team race this season with South Dakota and North Dakota State. The latter is the defending conference tourney champ, the former a sub-.500 2018-19 team. For USD to win the league would mean a sizable leap from a so-so 2018-19; with Hagedorn’s return, a backcourt of playmakers and shooters, and Umude’s ascendance to Summit Player of the Year frontrunner, the Coyotes look to be more than capable of making the jump.
Tier 2
3. Omaha
Key Returners: Matt Pile, JT Gibson, KJ Robinson, Ayo Akinwole, Wanjang Tut
Key Losses: Zach Jackson, Mitch Hahn
Key Newcomers: Lamel Robinson, Darrius Hughes, Marlon Ruffin (JUCO), Marco Smith (UMKC)
Lineup:
Outlook: Omaha blew away preseason expectation last year, finishing the regular season one game out of first place and falling just short in the Summit League conference tournament championship. The Mavs were picked to finish 8th in the preseason polls following a disaster 2017-18 campaign in which they stumbled to a 4-10 league mark, then casually waltzed to a 13-3 2018-19 record – two strange losses to Oral Roberts held UNO out of its first NIT appearance. Derrin Hansen, the reigning Summit Coach of the Year, dialed back the tempo last season, helping his squad rattle off 18 wins in their final 22 contests. Two First Team All-Summit performers are gone, but Hansen brings back a solid core featuring three starters and welcomes a promising incoming class.
Hansen has been the head honcho in Omaha since the school entered the Division I ranks back in 2011-12. For many years, the Mavs were known for playing at one of the most frantic paces in college basketball, consistently ranking among the national top 15 in tempo. But Hansen broke that trend in 2017-18, easing up on the throttle in favor of a more half-court style attack, and slowed the pace even more last season. Here’s a look back at Omaha’s pace trend the past few seasons:
With last year’s slow-down came a heavier focus on playing through the post, particularly returning big man Matt Pile. Departed seniors Zach Jackson and Mitch Hahn were the dominant offensive forces in 2018-19, but Pile was the most consistent presence on the block and drove UNO to finishing 9th in the country in percentage of plays ended via post-up. Once entirely reliant on transition, Omaha suddenly became a team focused on managing tempo, playing through Pile and the pick-n-roll and letting its surplus of creators work their magic. Omaha’s offense thrived last season, ranking 65th in the country per KenPom and 1st in the Summit thanks to a ridiculously low 13.5% TO rate (2nd in the country) and 39.3% 3P% (10th in the country). The Mavs were one of the most efficient offensive units in the nation last year and should be solid on that end once again despite the losses of Jackson and Hahn.
Pile was the best offensive rebounder in the conference last year by rate, a super-efficient scorer on the block, and one of the league’s best shot blockers on the other end. Hansen will likely try to get the big man a touch every time down the floor, allowing him to draw doubles and kick to the bevy of shooters dotting the arc in his 4-out look. Seniors JT Gibson and KJ Robinson will form the most sure-handed and arguably best shooting backcourt duo in the league, eager to take advantage of the attention given to Pile. Both Gibson and Robinson thrived in pick-n-roll situations last year, proving they were both more than just spot-up shooters.
One of either junior Ayo Akinwole, redshirt sophomore Zach Thornhill, or sophomore Marlon Ruffin likely starts on the wing next to Gibson and Robinson. Akinwole is the most proven shooter of the three, connecting on 46.3% of his longball tries last year, but he only started last year when Robinson was down with injury. Thornhill played just 10 games his freshman season but shot the ball extremely well when he saw the floor. Ruffin, a JUCO transfer, could be a defensive menace with his length and athleticism – something that has been sorely lacking on Hansen’s past squads. Freshman point guard Lamel Robinson out of Kansas City is one of the highest rated recruits in UNO history, but he’ll likely occupy a backup point guard role in 2019-20 behind KJ Robinson (no relation). Next season, watch for a breakout from Lamel Robinson, a quick, crafty lead guard who can shoot it from anywhere. UMKC transfer Marco Smith will also be a factor in the backcourt rotation after proving to be a versatile two-way player off the pine for the Roos in 2017-18.
Joining Pile in the starting frontcourt will likely be redshirt sophomore Wanjang Tut, a 6’8” stretch forward who can post, drive, or shoot from deep. Freshman Darrius Hughes will be a more paint-bound, glass-crashing option. Hughes is a guy who could emerge into a key piece down the road; he’s physically imposing, handles the ball well, and plays above the rim.
As has been the case since entering Division I, defense will be the deciding factor in Omaha’s ability to make an NCAA Tournament run. Hansen has had just one team finish in the top 230 in his eight years at the helm. While they rebounded well, the Mavs were consistently scorched from the outside last season and were 320th in FG% allowed near the rim. Hahn was a poor defender, but nobody else on the roster was light years better. For Omaha to beat out NDSU and USD for a Tourney bid, it must buckle down on this end and get stops.
Bottom Line: Despite the great offensive loss of Jackson and Hahn, Omaha should be considered every bit a Summit tile contender in 2019-20. While the Bison and Coyotes return everyone, it’s worth remembering that the Mavs finished 4 and 6 games ahead of them last season in the conference standings, respectively. Pile will garner POY attention while the senior guards will ensure the offense remains consistent.
4. Oral Roberts
Key Returners: Emmanuel Nzekwesi, Kevin Obanor, Sam Kearns, DJ Weaver, Aidan Saunders, Carlos Jurgens, Francis Lacis, RJ Fuqua
Key Losses: Kaelen Malone, Emir Ahmedic, Kerwin Smith
Key Newcomers: Deondre Burns (Little Rock), D’Mauria Jones (JUCO), Ty Lazenby (Oklahoma), Elijah Lufile (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: The injury bug came a-knocking in Tulsa last year, ravaging nearly every player on the Golden Eagles’ roster. Only three guys played all 32 games last season for Oral Bob, leaving head coach Paul Mills in a difficult situation. All things considered, ORU held their own pretty well in conference play, notching a respectable 7-9 record despite the injuries and sweeping Omaha and South Dakota in the process. The silver lining of the injury woes, of course, is that multiple young players on the roster were able to gain valuable experience and key minutes where they wouldn’t have otherwise. Mills now has a team full of experience and talent with which to challenge for a Summit League title.
ORU’s best asset this season is its frontcourt, manned by two of the league’s best players in Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor. The 6’8” forwards each earned a spot on the Summit’s All-Conference 2nd Team and Obanor earned All-Newcomer Team, Sixth Man of the Year, and Freshman of the Year honors. The Eagles play through the post on offense, ranking 6th in the country last season in percentage of plays ended in a post-up. Both Nzekwesi and Obanor are skilled scorers on the block and versatile enough to step out and shoot or take their defenders off the bounce. With Kerwin Smith’s graduation, the pair will share the floor much more in 2019-20 than they did last season, which will do wonders for ORU’s offense but leave question marks defensively:
Per Hoop Lens (numbers are points per possession)
Now, the stats for both bigs sharing the floor are based on a relatively small sample size, so there’s hope ORU’s defense won’t be THAT trash when the two share the floor, but the Eagles in general were a brutal defensive team last year, which was the key reason for their lackluster performance (outside of injuries). Mills’ group was THE WORST halfcourt man-to-man defense in the country last season, allowing 1.015 PPP, the most in the nation per Synergy. As a result, ORU also played zone 53% of the time (18th highest in the nation), mixing a soft 2-3 with attempts to play Scott Drew’s strange 1-1-3 matchup zone (Mills was a Drew assistant), and the Eagles showed a courtesy man press as well. Regardless of their defensive scheme, the Eagles were routinely scorched from the outside (347th in 3PFG% D) and rarely forced turnovers (348th in TO rate). A healthier perimeter and another year for Obanor should help the defense improve (at least a little) – there’s no reason Nzekwesi and Obanor can’t be good defenders with their size and athleticism.
Offensively, ORU should be strong. Nzekwesi and Obanor score at will on the block and the pair led the Eagles to ranking first in the Summit in offensive rebounding rate, a key avenue ORU uses to put points on the board. To make matters worse for opposing defenses, Mills can surround the two big men with three knockdown outside shooters at all times, which will make stopping the Eagles a daunting task. Obanor is a burgeoning star in this league and will compete for Player of the Year in 2019-20. He scored 1.124 PPP in post-up situations last year (95th percentile) and led the league with a true shooting percentage of 70.4%. Ironically, his closest player comparison per KenPom is none other than Nzekwesi:
Sam Kearns and DJ Weaver will be two of the main shooters surrounding the star big men this season. Kearns runs point and has started every game he’s played in his two-year career. He’ll look to continue to improve his ball security in year three. Weaver is a lanky wing who can play the 3 or 4; he led the team with a 41.7% three-point clip in 2018-19. The final starting spot could go to several different players and Mills will likely play with lineup combinations all year long. Little Rock transfer Deondre Burns could be one of the best pure scorers in the Summit this season, able to play both guard spots and create his own shot. Combo guard RJ Fuqua returns after spending a redshirt year on the bench with a hip injury. He started 21 games as a freshman and is one of the best perimeter defenders on the squad. Aidan Saunders, Carlos Jurgens, and Francis Lacis all earned spot starts last year as well; Lacis was the best shooter of the three while Jurgens offered size and brought defense to the table. Oklahoma transfer Ty Lazenby will be an intriguing backcourt option as well. He didn’t see much floor time at OU but was the 65th-ranked JUCO prospect in the country back in 2017 after earning First Team All-American honors and averaging 22.9 PPG. JUCO transfer D’Mauria Jones, a big and physical guard, could also see some time after sitting out last season and Elijah Lufile, a physically imposing JUCO forward, will play a key backup role behind Obanor and Nzekwesi.
Bottom Line: Oral Roberts has the talent to make a run at the Summit title this year, but its defense will need to improve. Mills has arguably the best frontcourt in the league and a backcourt deep as the Mariana Trench, but his Eagles won’t make the NCAA Tournament if they’re a bottom-15 defense once again.
Tier 3
5. Purdue Fort Wayne
Key Returners: Matt Holba, Dylan Carl, Jarred Godfrey, Marcus DeBerry, Cameron Benford
Key Losses: John Konchar, Kason Harrell, Dee Montgomery, Matt Weir
Key Newcomers: DeMierre Black (JUCO), Jalin Wimberly (JUCO), Brian Patrick (Kansas State), Tionne Rollins (Redshirt), Deonte Billups, Chase Johnston
Lineup:
Outlook: 2019-20 will be Purdue Fort Wayne’s 13th and final season in the Summit League, as it heads to the Horizon in 2020-21. The Mastodons have yet to make an NCAA Tournament in their 17-season stint in Division I, but they’ve been consistently competitive in the Summit, particularly under Jon Coffman. Last year was defined by streaks – the Dons rattled off six straight wins from 12/18 – 1/10, starting league play 4-0, then lost their next three, won the next five, and finished the regular season losing their final four contests. UPFW will be without John Konchar this season, arguably the best player in program history, as well as Kason Harrell, an Honorable Mention All-Summit League honoree. Coffman’s offensive scheme will remain largely the same, but he’ll need to find a new catalyst.
Konchar led the Dons in every statistical category except blocks (he ranked 2nd) and was the heart and soul of the offensive attack. Replacing his impact will be impossible, but Coffman does have some intriguing pieces coming through the transfer wire. Top 120 JUCO transfers DeMierre Black and Jalin Wimberly both earned NJCAA All-American honors last season (Black 2nd Team, Wimberly 3rd Team) and both will compete for a starting gig at UPFW this year. Black will likely take over the point guard reins, a position largely held by Konchar for four seasons. Wimberly will play on the wing and give the Dons one of the most athletic guards in the league; he’s a high flyer who can also shoot from the outside. Kansas State transfer Brian Patrick should also be a staple in the backcourt rotation after seeing limited floor time in Manhattan.
Coffman’s preferred style of play is well-documented. He’ll look to push the pace on offense, spread the floor with four or five shooters, and fire away from downtown. The Dons had the 13th fastest offense in the country last season and looked to shoot threes whenever possible; UPFW ranked 29th in 3PA rate and 47th 3P%. Coffman’s squad was also good at taking good shots, rarely shooting from the mid-range in favor of a layup or long-ball try. Nearly every player on the roster can shoot the three, which should help the Dons be one of the nation’s better offenses once again in 2019-20.
Defense has been another story under Coffman. While UPFW has been potent on offense, the program has only had one defense in its DI history that ranked in KenPom’s top 200. Coffman plays strictly half-court man-to-man, rarely, if ever, pressing full court or showing zone looks. The Dons slow opponents down on this end of the floor, allowing the longest average possession length in the Summit last season, and look to force turnovers with their slew of athletes. Despite the slow-down and turnover success, opposing teams have had no trouble finding clean looks against UPFW over the years. There’s nothing to suggest this drastically improves this season.
Black and Wimberly will carry a heavy scoring load, but UPFW’s frontcourt will be key to the squad’s success this season. Matt Holba, a Summit All-Newcomer member last season, is one of the best three-point shooters in the country, connecting on 44.6% of his overall attempts and 48.5% of his Summit attempts in 2019-20. He’s much better in a supporting role, so one of Coffman’s guards will still need to be the main shot creator ala Konchar or Harrell. Dylan Carl will start at the 5; he’s a tall, lanky forward who finishes well in the paint and can step outside when necessary. Defensively, Carl holds his own as a decent shot blocker. The pair will be backed up by Cameron Benford, one of the only paint-bound forwards on the roster and perhaps the best rebounder on the team.
Coffman will play plenty of four-guard lineups this season with Wimberly, sophomore Jarred Godfrey, or freshman Deonte Billups seeing run as the “4”. Godfrey, primarily a slashing wing, will look to build on a decent freshman year, specifically improving his outside shot. Billups was a high scorer in high school and a super versatile swingman who can play four positions. With the Dons’ lack of frontcourt depth, Billups could see a major role in year one.
Rounding out UPFW’s backcourt will be Marcus DeBerry, Tionne Rollins, and Chase Johnston. DeBerry, a former Northern Arizona Lumberjack, is mostly a spot-up shooter (though he didn’t shoot very well in ’18-19). Rollins redshirted last season but holds potential as a lead ball handler behind Black. Johnston holds the high school record for most three-pointers made in a career, hitting over 520 of them in four years. He should fit right in with Coffman’s run-n-gun style.
Bottom Line: The Mastodons may find life without Konchar a difficult one. Few players in the country did more on the floor for their squad than Konchar did for UPFW. Coffman should still have an exciting, fast, and three-point heavy offense, but it will be decidedly less potent without Konchar, and the defensive side the of the ball will continue to be questionable.
6. South Dakota State
Key Returners: Alex Arians, Owen King, Matt Dentlinger, Brandon Key
Key Losses: Mike Daum, David Jenkins, Skyler Flatten, Tevin King
Key Newcomers: Doug Wilson (JUCO), Tray Buchanan (JUCO), Noah Freidel, Baylor Scheierman, Matt Mims (Redshirt), Aaron Fiegen (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: South Dakota State’s reign at the top of the Summit may finally come to an end this season. The Jackrabbits have won the regular season title five of the past seven seasons and have been the league’s NCAA Tournament representative three of the past four. Mike Daum, one of the most prolific scorers in NCAA history is gone, as is fellow First Team All-Summit point guard David Jenkins and head coach TJ Otzelberger, who recently jumped ship for UNLV. What’s left is a small returning core of role players, new head coach (and former assistant) Eric Henderson, and a talented group of newcomers. SDSU won’t be nearly the squad it was last season, but Henderson has plenty of coaching experience and a roster that can compete in the middle of the Summit.
Henderson played DII ball under the tutelage of current Creighton coach Greg McDermott, who he also spent time under as an assistant at Iowa State with Otzelberger. After two seasons under Dave Richman at NDSU, Henderson spent the last three years on Otzelberger’s staff in Brookings, so there’s at least some sense of continuity heading into 2019-20. Henderson has hinted at playing a similar style to Otzelberger, an offense that prioritizes floor spacing, transition, and shooting. Last season, SDSU ran a ton of pick-and-roll with its two studs, Daum and Jenkins. This year’s roster doesn’t have that kind of individual star power, so we should expect to see a more balanced attack, one that likely leans more heavily into outside shooting than in years past.
Defensively, SDSU has been respectable the past two seasons after a train-wreck of an effort in 2017-18 when Otzelberger experimented with a soft 1-3-1 zone. The Jackrabbits were the Summit’s best defensive squad in 2018-19 and Henderson has emphasized his willingness to instill a sense of toughness and physicality on that end. With a roster limited in experience, it’s unlikely everything will click right away on either end, but at least the effort should be there.
Four sophomores and a redshirt senior represent the five returners on this year’s Bunnies squad. Sophomores Alex Arians, Owen King, Matt Dentlinger, and Alou Dillon all earned sporadic starts throughout the 2018-19 campaign, and senior Brandon Key was a spot starter back in 2017-18. Arians turned in the best o-rating in the Summit last season, scorching the net from everywhere on the floor in primarily a spot-up shooter role – 100% of Arians’ made threes last year were assisted. King is a ball handler who shot well inside the arc last season but so-so from beyond it. Key likely starts at point guard this season and is one of the few Jackrabbits who prefers to attack the hoop off the bounce and draw fouls versus spotting up. Dentlinger started six games as a freshman and rebounded well, particularly offensively. Dillon played limited minutes and will still likely be a deep bench piece in year two.
The two most anticipated newcomers joining SDSU this season are JUCO imports Doug Wilson and Tray Buchanan. Wilson was named NJCAA DII Player of the Year after leading his National Championship squad with 21 PPG and 8.7 RPG. He’s an athletic, long forward who can defend, drive, and score in the post. The Jackrabbits don’t have a ton of size up front, so Wilson may see consistent minutes at the 5 in addition to his natural 4-spot. Buchanan was a 3rd Team NJCAA All-American last year and suited up for North Dakota as a freshman in 2017-18. He’s an aggressive combo guard who attacks the rim hard and bothers opposing ball handlers defensively. Both Wilson and Buchanan should see plenty of starts this season.
Henderson’s remaining rotation options are all shooters – freshmen Noah Freidel and Baylor Scheierman and redshirt freshmen Matt Mims and Aaron Fiegen all have reputations as deadeye strokers from behind the arc. Freidel and Fiegen are both big wings, while Scheierman and Mims are combo guards. Mims in particular should see floor time after spending a year on the bench behind Jenkins. He’s a very talented distributor and shooter off the bounce.
Bottom Line: SDSU’s success this season will be dependent on how quickly Henderson can get the plethora of new pieces to mesh. On paper, his hire is a great decision – he has the requisite pedigree and comes from a strong coaching tree. The Jackrabbits may not win the Summit in 2019-20, but they should be back around the top of the league in the near future.
7. North Dakota
Key Returners: Marlon Stewart, Filip Rebraca, Kienan Walter, Aanen Moody, Billy Brown, Bentiu Panoam, Davids Atelbauers
Key Losses: Cortez Seales, Conner Avants
Key Newcomers: De’Sean Allen-Eikens (Redshirt), Carlos Ramsey Jr., Gertautas Urbonavicius
Lineup:
Outlook: North Dakota was a feisty squad in its inaugural Summit season. The Fighting Hawks finished 6-10 after beating up on league punching bags Denver and Western Illinois, but also played Omaha, South Dakota State, and North Dakota State (twice) within five points. Brian Jones, the head coach at UND since 2006, stepped down this offseason to take a job on Dan Muller’s staff down at Illinois State, so the Hawks will have new leadership in 2019-20. Incoming coach Paul Sather spent several years at the helm of DII Northern State, leading his squad to the NCAA National Championship game in 2018. Sather will look to improve upon a so-so year with a good chunk of minutes returning and some promising new faces.
The Hawks played fast under Jones, but offense primarily revolved around the pick-n-roll, spot-ups, and post play. Sather’s NSU squads rarely forced the issue in transition but did implement a heavy dose of ball screens and post feeds. With similar personnel, the halfcourt offense won’t look too different than in years past under Jones, but the pace on both ends may slow.
Defense kept UND competitive in most games last year, as the Hawks were overall below average on the offensive end. Jones’s squad ranked 2nd in the Summit in KenPom’s defensive rankings, focusing heavily on denying three-point opportunities. Jones rarely zoned or pressed, which is how Sather preferred to do things at NSU. The departed Cortez Seales and Conner Avants were far from savants defensively, so the Hawks will likely be stout on this end in 2019-20, particularly with the addition of some athletic bodies.
Marlon Stewart will be the primary ball handler for the Hawks this season, flanked in the backcourt by sophomore Aanen Moody and senior Billy Brown. Stewart, who started his career at Creighton, played just 19 games last season after being held out the first semester. He’ll be UND’s best player and scorer this year, able to put up buckets off ball screens attacking the hoop. Moody played starter’s minutes last season without ever actually starting a game. He excelled in transition, where he found success launching early threes on the run. Moody shot 176 threes last season (39.2%) to just 41 twos and 11 FTs. Brown is a 3-and-D wing who ranked 5th in the Summit in steal rate and 3P% last season.
Sather’s other options in the backcourt include junior Bentiu Panaom, a small reserve guard who started 8 games last season, sophomore Davids Atelbauers, a combo guard who shot well from the outside in limited minutes in 2018-19, and freshman Carlos Ramsey, Jr., an athletic and physical guard who should be a defensive asset and dribble-drive threat.
Avants and Seales were UND’s most prominent post threats last season, but returners Filip Rebraca and Kienan Walter are each capable scorers inside. The two forwards are stretchier in nature, able to space the floor offensively with soft three-point touch. Rebraca is the much better rebounder of the two, but he struggled with ball security in his first collegiate season. Freshmen De’Sean Allen-Eikens and Gertautas Urbonavicius will both be key rotational pieces up front as well. Allen-Eikens is a versatile wing can play multiple spots; he’s not super explosive, but he’s strong and has a good outside shot. Urbonavicius comes by way of Lithuania where he played on the FIBA U18 squad. He projects as a great roll man in ball screen sets and is a skilled finisher with face-up ability.
Bottom Line: North Dakota likely finishes in the bottom half of the Summit this season. A new coach plus an underwhelming roster from a talent perspective won’t be enough to challenge the upper echelon teams in the league. Sather appears to be a good hire and should be able to build this program back up to prominence.
8. Western Illinois
Key Returners: Kobe Webster, CJ Duff, Ben Pyle, Zion Young, Jeremiah Usiosefe
Key Losses: Isaac Johnson, Brandon Gilbeck
Key Newcomers: Roderick Smith (JUCO), Anthony Jones (JUCO), Kyle Arrington (JUCO), Dreshawn Allen (JUCO), Jaeden King, Alex Brantley
Lineup:
Outlook: Western Illinois has been awful forever. The program has had 11 winning seasons in 38 years and has never seen the NCAA Tournament. Billy Wright took over for Jim Molinari in 2014-15 and since then has gone 48-94 overall and 18-70 in Summit play. Every year the Leathernecks seem to have one or two players on the roster with legitimate talent, but Wright has never been able to manifest that talent into success. This season, WIU will be without Brandon Gilbeck, an All-Conference player and the Summit’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Wright has a talented backcourt, but there’s little evidence to suggest fortunes turnaround in 2019-20.
One of the reasons for WIU’s futility under Wright has been its lackluster offense, which often relies on isolation and inefficient pull-ups to score points. The Leathernecks had the worst offense in the Summit last season but actually shot the ball well from deep, ranking 16th in the country in 3P%. Unfortunately, WIU was way too comfortable with taking tough jumpers and ball movement was severely lacking. Only three teams nationally had a lower assist rate than WIU last year and the Leathernecks shot the 38th highest rate of mid-range jumpers in the country.
The primary culprits of the inefficient shot selection, Kobe Webster and CJ Duff, are very talented players, and Webster particularly was something of a wizard with his ability to hit tough, unbalanced looks. But, over the course of an entire game, this style of offense tends to take teammates out of the action and takes away from potentially high percentage near-rim or three-point looks. Webster will be the man once again this season, a 2nd Team All-Summit member in 2018-19 and one of the highest scorers in the league. He’s a quick point guard who thrives off ball screens, in isolation, and running off screens – his 41.3% three-point clip is staggering considering only 54.1% of his made threes were assisted. Duff is more of a spot-up threat, but Wright runs him off a fair share of screens as well where he tends to settle for mid-range looks like his teammate. Duff is one of the better deep-ball shooters in the country, knocking down 39.3% of his career 338 attempts.
Zion Young and Jeremiah Usiosefe are the two other returning backcourt pieces in line for consistent minutes. Young had a promising freshman season, shooting 45.6% from downtown (this team was en fuego – SHOOT THE THREE MORE, BILLY!), and he actually liked to score near the bucket and do work in the post. If you’re looking for a breakout player in the Summit this season (besides Denver’s Nzekwesi), Young might be your guy. Usiosefe is mostly a shooter on the wing; he’ll fill a niche role behind the big three of Webster / Duff / Young. Keshon Montague, a former Pacific Tiger, may also see some floor time after shooting well last season.
Usiosefe and Montague will face PT competition from some new blood in 2019-20. Two JUCO transfers, Anthony Jones and Dreshawn Allen appear to have the physical tools to play right away, and freshman Jaeden King is a 6’6” shooter who can play multiple positions. Of the JUCO newbies, Jones is more of a defensive wing while Allen is a combo guard and high-level athlete who poured in 21.4 PPG last season.
Replacing Gilbeck up front will be no easy challenge – he wasn’t an offensive juggernaut by any means, but Gilbeck was one of the best rebounders and shot blockers in the Summit for the past three years. JUCO import Roderick Smith may be the best option to start at center in the early going; he’s a former 3-star recruit with a big frame and physical style of play. Fellow JUCO newcomer Kyle Arrington could also see minutes at the 5; he’s a true low post presence who can anchor a squad on both ends of the floor. Senior forward James Claar will continue his role as a backup frontcourt role player; he blocks shots and rebounds at respectable rates, but he’s a bit skinny to play the 5 consistently. Alex Brantley, a 7-foot freshman, may be a little too raw for immediate action in 2019-20. Sophomore Ben Pyle will play the lion’s share of the 4 minutes, but he’s more of a wing who’s mostly averse to rebounding and prefers to hover on the perimeter and shoot from the outside.
WIU’s defense under Wright, much like its offense, has never been what anyone would consider “good”. Last season, opponents played at the 16th fastest pace on this end due to the Leathernecks allowing early, open looks from the perimeter. Three-point percentage defense can often be a function of luck, but considering the Leathernecks have ranked in the bottom ten in the country in 3P% allowed three of Wright’s five seasons at the helm, I’m inclined to believe his soft perimeter shell has had something to do with it. To boot, WIU was terrible at stopping transition opportunities in 2018-19 and turned teams over at the 3rd lowest rate in the country (another stat consistent under Wright’s regime).
Bottom Line: Expectations are likely never high in Macomb, but one has to wonder why the Leathernecks haven’t looked outside of Billy Wright after five seasons residing in the Summit League basement. WIU will have one of the better backcourt trios in the conference this year, but there’s little reason to expect this team to finish any higher than 7th in 2019-20.
9. Denver
Key Returners: Ade Murkey, Jase Townsend, David Nzekwesi, Alperen Kurnaz, Taelyr Gatlin
Key Losses: Ronnie Harrell, Joe Rosga, Donovan Carlisle, Abiola Akintola, Elvin Rodriguez, Tory Stewart-Miller
Key Newcomers: Ray Kowalski (JUCO), Khalil Johnson (JUCO), Tristan Green (JUCO), JaVonni Bickham (Redshirt), Roscoe Eastmond, Owen McGlashan, Robert Jones
Lineup:
Outlook: Holy letdown, Batman! After being picked to finish 3rd in the Summit League preseason standings (including one 1st place vote), the Pioneers floundered to a 3-13 conference record to end the year dead last in the league, missing the conference postseason tournament and bringing shame to their program. Key players such as Tory Stewart-Miller missed time due to injury, but Denver had enough talent to stay afloat in the middle of a so-so league. Last year was Denver’s worst since 2007 and by far its worst Summit performance; the Pios were among the 50 most “unlucky” teams per KenPom, but poor play on both ends of the floor was the main culprit to their disaster 2018-19 campaign.
Like other inefficient offensive squads, Denver loved to settle for tough mid-range jumpers, usually off curls by guards Ronnie Harrell and Ade Murkey. With Harrell and Joe Rosga gone, Murkey will step into the go-to role offensively, a role he’s capable of playing despite his tendency to force the issue. Murkey is one of the few Pios who consistently attacks the basket, ranking 4th in the Summit in FT rate last season. His athleticism makes him a intimidating force on both sides of the ball and one of DU’s most important players in 2019-20.
After Murkey, head coach Rodney Billups has plenty of backcourt options with which to compose a competent lineup, and he’ll likely show several different starting fives throughout the season. Sophomore Jase Townsend, primarily an outside shooting threat, should see a nice leap during his second season and contribute as a secondary ball handler. Fellow sophomore Taelyr Gatlin started 12 games last year at point guard, but struggled tremendously with turnovers, coughing the ball up on 31.5% of his possessions. Poor ball handling and poor shooting makes Gatlin’s starting spot vulnerable heading into the year.
JUCO transfers Ray Kowalski and Khalil Johnson and freshmen Jaire “Roscoe” Eastmond and Owen McGlashan will all push Townsend and Gatlin for starting minutes. Kowalski played at SEMO prior to spending a year in the JUCO ranks; he’s a knockdown shooter who poured in 42.9% of his tries with the Redhawks in 2017-18 and 38.1% last year in JUCO. Johnson is an athletic point guard out of Long Island. Eastmond is a lightning quick lead guard with excellent passing skills and the ability to create his own shot; he’s small in stature but his game is the real deal, and he projects as a defensive on-ball pest. McGlashan has perhaps the most potential out of the four backcourt newcomers; he’s an athletic wing who Billups sees as a prototypical 3-and-D guy. All four of these players could see starts in their first season in Denver; sophomore guard Joseph Lanzi likely continues his reserve role off the pine.
Denver’s frontcourt is sneaky decent this season. David Nzekwesi, brother of Oral Roberts’ Emmanuel Nzekwesi, is due for a giant breakout this season (like All-Conference-level potential). The big man started Denver’s final four games last season and averaged 17 PPG and 7 RPG. Like his older bro, Nzekwesi can shoot from deep, rebound, and score effectively on the block. He’ll receive all the playing time he can handle in 2019-20.
Alperen Kurnaz will complement Nzekwesi in the frontcourt. Kurnaz played inconsistent minutes last season but rebounded well when he saw the floor and proved he could stretch the opposing defense out past the arc. He’ll compete with Robert Jones, a sizable center who could be a stout rim protector immediately, Tristan Green, a former 3-star recruit and Ranger College transfer, and JaVonni Bickham, a physical forward who can play on the wing or at the 4 in the paint, for playing time. Green particularly has been garnering a ton of buzz this offseason and could be one of Denver’s primary go-to guys on offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, Denver has always been a good rebounding team under Billups, ranking 9th in the country in DR% in 2019-20. However, the Pios allowed WAY too many open looks from deep last season and ranked dead last in the country in 3P% allowed (teams shot 41.8% from three!). There’s certainly an element of luck to that stat – in 2017-18, opposing teams shot just 33.5% - but Denver also allows some of the most three-point attempts every year. Billups will show a little zone and a little full court press and hope to the basketball gods his team can get back to playing competent defense.
Bottom Line: Last year may prove to be a blip on the radar for Billups and the Pioneers. Nothing seemed to go right, and the season spiraled out of control quickly. Denver should be better in 2019-20, but likely won’t be a top four Summit team for at least another year.