- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Kevon Harris, Jr., Stephen F. Austin
Coach of the Year: Jason Hooten, Sam Houston State
Newcomer of the Year: Dainan Swoope, R Sr., Sam Houston State
Freshman of the Year: Myles Pierre, Fr., Houston Baptist
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Sam Houston State
Key Returners: Kai Mitchell, Chad Bowie, RJ Smith, Bubba Furlong, Zach Nutall, Xavier Bryant
Key Losses: Josh Delaney, Cameron Delaney, Marcus Harris, Albert Almanza
Key Newcomers: Dainan Swoope (Elon), Mark Tikhonenko (North Texas), Cyrus Johnson (Redshirt), Terryonte Thomas (JUCO), Demarkus Lampley (JUCO), Pierce Hellums
Lineup:
Outlook: Ladies and gentlemen, can I please have your attention. I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. I need all of you, to stop what you're doing and listen… I am done doubting Jason Hooten.
I have been low on Sam Houston State each of the past three seasons, well not anymore folks! I am committing to overrating this team if it’s the last thing I do. Hooten has earned a “program premium” bump in the Southland, having enjoyed nothing but success over the past few seasons (sans an NCAA Tournament bid). The Bearkats have turned in three straight 20+ win seasons and notched six straight double-digit win totals in the SLC despite consistent roster turnover year-over-year. Last season, SHSU won the league by two full games before ultimately falling short in the postseason tournament. Cameron and Josh Delaney are gone, but the Bearkats return plenty of talent and add two very key transfers, which should have them sitting atop the conference standings once again in March.
SHSU had the best offense in the league last season thanks to an attack predicated on unselfishness and ball movement. Hooten teams always have sky high assist rates, last year being no exception. The Bearkats led the SLC in assist rate and ranked 7th in the country, pinging the ball around the perimeter, inside, and out in order to find clean looks. It’s telling that SHSU’s leading scorer last season poured in just 13.4 PPG – the Bearkats were very balanced and nobody on the roster was exclusively looking to “get theirs”. This is a testament to the coaching job and the culture Hooten has done and built at the program – I watched Cam Delaney at the 3X3U tournament last season and he could’ve scored 20 PPG in the Southland but instead chose to put team over self. Good ball protection last year also helped the SHSU offensive cause, as did ranking 42nd in 3P% in the country. Expect the Bearkats to be an extremely balanced offense and have a potent shooting attack once again this season.
The Bearkats ranked 3rd in the SLC in defensive efficiency per KenPom last year. Like most Southland squads, SHSU forced a lot of turnovers and pressed at a fairly high rate. Hooten brought in even more high-level athletes to add to his already athletic returning group, so expect SHSU to be one of the more intimidating teams in the league on this end in 2019-20.
With the Delaneys graduating, the star spotlight will fall squarely on Kai Mitchell this season. Mitchell blew away expectations last season after coming over from the JUCO ranks, earning the SLC NCOY and a spot on the All-Conference 3rd Team. The 6’7” center is one of the best rebounders in the league, a stout defender, and a menacing post-up and roll threat on offense. His two-way impact makes him SHSU’s most important player this year as it looks to repeat as SLC champs. Hooten usually plays a smaller lineup to optimize shooting and floor spacing (and he just doesn’t have a ton of tall players), so guys like RJ Smith and Cyrus Johnson will likely see the lion’s share of minutes at the 4. Smith is a strong rebounder – especially offensively – and knocked down 42.3% of his 52 3PA last year. Foul trouble will be an improvement point for him in 2019-20, as he, like most SHSU players, had difficulty not giving opponents free trips to the line. Johnson redshirted last year but should play an integral part in the rotation this season; he’s a big slashing forward and son of former NBA player Marques Johnson. Bubba Furlong and Mark Tikhonenko will provide backup behind Mitchell at the 5. Furlong was a serviceable role player last year, able to provide rebounding, shot blocking, and a good shooting touch when on the floor. Tikhonenko, a North Texas transfer, is mostly a stretch forward.
The backcourt has plenty of familiar faces but the two biggest names to watch are new to the program in 2019-20. Elon transfer Dainan Swoope and JUCO import Demarkus Lampley figure to form two-thirds of SHSU’s starting backcourt this season. Swoope played just 4 games for the Phoenix last season but was previously among the Elon leaders in minutes played, scoring, and assists. He can run the point or play off the ball where he’s a career 33.9% high-volume outside shooter. Lampley ranked second in the JUCO ranks in scoring last season (26.6 PPG) and earned a spot on the NJCAA 1st Team All-American squad. JUCOrecruiting.com pegs him as the 82nd best prospect in the class of 2019 and Hooten has indicated he expects Lampley to pick up a significant amount of the production left behind by the departed guards. Lampley’s athleticism and 43% 3P clip will help him fit right in with the SHSU roster.
Returning backcourt rotation players include Chad Bowie, Zach Nutall, Xavier Bryant, and DaJuan Jones. Bowie is a stout perimeter defender who ranked 16th nationally in steal rate last season. He can run the point but turnover issues loomed over him last year – he’s best served as an off-ball spot-up threat offensively. Nutall has been getting heaps of praise thrown on him this offseason from Hooten; he had the 8th best o-rating in the SLC last year as a freshman and shot 42.9% from deep in league play. Bryant and Jones are both backup point guards. Bryant put up an insane assist rate clip last year in limited time (fueled by his 6 assists in 8 minutes versus TCU) but also struggled with turnovers. Jones redshirted in 2018-19 after playing sparingly in 2017-18. Newcomers Terryonte Thomas and Pierce Hellums will push the incumbent rotation for playing time in their first years in Huntsville. Thomas is a borderline top 100 JUCO recruit, a strong wing defender and super athlete. Hellums is a big-time shooter at either guard spot.
Bottom Line: I’ll reiterate what I stated at the beginning of this preview: I will not underrate Sam Houston State this season. The Bearkats have a proven coach, a winning culture, and talent up-and-down the roster. Here’s hoping they can punch their first bid to the Big Dance since 2010 and third in school history.
2. New Orleans
Key Returners: Bryson Robinson, Troy Green, Damion Rosser, Gerrale Gates, Jahmel Myers, Amari Haynes, Larry Robinson III, Lamont Berzat
Key Losses: Ezekiel Charles, Scott Plaisance, Jorge Rosa
Key Newcomers: Jaylen Key (Northern Illinois), Raquan Brown, Rodney Carson, Kmani Doughty, Ahren Freeman
Lineup:
Outlook: Mark Slessinger has kept the Privateers near the top of the Southland standings for three years running, starting with a league championship and NCAA Tournament bid in 2017. In that timespan, New Orleans is 38-16 in conference play, solidifying itself as a staple Southland title contender. Slessinger has out-performed preseason expectations consistently at UNO, but this year will be the first time he has REAL expectations to take home the league crown. Already named the preseason favorite in the SLC poll, UNO will look to return to the Dance on the backs of their cadre of returning talent.
UNO’s theme the past three years has been “good defense, poor offense”. The Privateers ranked 8th in the SLC in offense (302nd in the country) per KenPom last year and 2nd in defense, following that trend to a tee. Offensively, UNO looks to drive to the hoop, play through the middle of the paint, and hit cutters diving to the rim – the three-point line is mostly ignored. In 2018-19, UNO ranked 3rd in the country in percentage of possessions finished via cuts versus 347th in 3PA rate; it’s an unselfish attack that revolves around passing and cutting. Transition play and offensive rebounding are also both keys for UNO’s offensive success – this year Slessinger should be able to push the issue more on the run with a healthy roster, high continuity, and a slew of incoming athletes.
Defensively, UNO should continue to be one of the better units in the SLC. The Privateers ranked 15th nationally in turnover rate last season and shut down the three-point line, allowing the 29th lowest 3PA rate in the country. Slessinger’s squads have ranked in the top five of the Southland in KenPom’s defensive rankings each of the past three seasons. Despite the loss of Ezekiel Charles, a strong and versatile defender, the Privateers will be able to overwhelm opponents with perimeter length, athleticism, and quickness.
Slessinger’s backcourt and wing corps is super deep this year with the return of starters Bryson Robinson, Troy Green, and Damion Rosser, key role players Lamont Berzat and Larry Robinson III, and the addition of freshmen Raquan Brown, Rodney Carson, Kmani Doughty, and Ahren Freeman. Bryson Robinson will be the team leader this year, a preseason 1st Team All-SLC selection and an efficient go-to scorer. A career 35.9% three-point shooter, Robinson is the rare Privateer who can actually shoot (and prefers to as well) from behind the arc. He’s also a deadly weapon in transition, can run the point, and score off the bounce. Green will handle primary point duties, along with Berzat who returns from an injury-ridden 2018-19 campaign. The former is a more defensive asset who racks up steals on that end; offensively, Green has been inefficient the past two years and severely lacks an outside shot. Berzat can shoot and handle the rock; defensively, he’ll continue to be a menace to opposing ball handlers with his small stature and quickness. Rosser is mainly a defensive wing who chips in with the steals and blocks effort. He attacks the rim hard on offense and gets to the foul line but is just 4/20 from downtown in two seasons at UNO. Larry Robinson III played nearly every game last season despite his walk-on status; he’ll continue to be a deeper backcourt option off the pine and another shooting threat.
All four freshmen have a shot at making an impact this season. Raquan Brown is a tough, physical point guard who should serve well on the defensive end. Rodney Carson and Kmani Doughty are two athletic wings primed to thrive in transition. Carson is an elite leaper and fits Slessinger’s preferred slash and run mold very well. Doughty should be a lockdown wing defender and adds a punch of shooting. Ahren Freeman should see time at the 4 with his DI-ready frame; he’s a good athlete and strong enough to bang down low and on the glass against other Southland forwards.
Slessinger’s returning frontcourt is a sophomore foursome burgeoning with untapped potential. Gerrale Gates, the reigning SLC Freshman of the Year, ranked 3rd in the league in FT rate last season and brings value as a post scorer and rebounder on both ends. Jahmel Myers settled for too many shots away from the hoop last year but is an asset on the offensive glass. Amari Haynes was UNO’s highest used player when he was on the floor in 2018-19 (not necessarily a good thing), another rebounder and dump-off finisher. 7’3” center Bol Riek redshirted last season after playing just seven games before succumbing to injury. He’s very tall and aids in the rebounding and shot blocking effort in limited minutes. All four forwards should carve out a role in the rotation this season, but Northern Illinois transfer Jaylen Key likely occupies one of the frontcourt starting spots. Key was a regular starter at NIU his freshman and sophomore year before missing 2017-18 to injury and becoming a rotational bench piece last season. He can space the floor a little at the 4 or 5 and should be a good fit for UNO’s challenged offense.
Bottom Line: New Orleans is on the shortlist of Southland favorites this season with a majority of its 12-6 2018-19 squad returning. There are no bona fide “stars” on this team, but Robinson should be one of the better players in the league this year and the roster is solid up-and-down. I refuse to bet against Sam Houston State this season, so UNO will have to settle for the #2 spot in my preseason rankings.
3. Stephen F. Austin
Key Returners: Kevon Harris, Nathan Bain, John Comeaux, Oddyst Walker
Key Losses: Shannon Bogues, Davonte Fitzgerald, Mitchell Seraille, Karl Nicholas, Jovan Grujic, Samuli Nieminen, Aaron Augustin
Key Newcomers: Sama’Zha Hart, Roti Ware (JUCO), David Kachelries (JUCO), Cameron Johnson (JUCO), Demiere Brown (JUCO), Charlie Daniels (JUCO), Gavin Kensmil (JUCO), Kharee McDaniel, Calvin Solomon
Lineup:
Outlook: SFA was bit hard by the injury bug (and the kicked-off-the-team bug) in 2018-19. After being picked nearly unanimously to win the Southland, the Jacks stumbled to an uncharacteristic 7-11 league mark and T-9th place finish. SFA ended the season ranked 311th in KenPom, easily the school’s worst mark in the KenPom era (23 years), and it was their worst Southland season since 2005. The Jacks lost current Texas Tech forward TJ Holyfield prior to the start of the year, point guard Aaron Augustin and forward Karl Nicholas to off-the-court issues, and a smattering of other players to injuries throughout the year. Kyle Keller now looks to get the train back on the tracks, bringing back arguably the best player in the league combined with an impressive newcomer class that features a 3-star freshman and four top 100 JUCO recruits. Barring another fluky season of bad luck, SFA is a lock to finish in the top four of the Southland in 2019-20.
Offense was a huge issue for the Jacks in 2018-19, as they floundered from the #1-ranked Southland offensive team in 2017-18 to 11th last season. Turnovers were a major part of the issue, a clear consequence of losing their point guard early in the year and forcing Shannon Bogues, the best scorer on last year’s squad and natural off-guard, to handle point duties. Shooting was also dreadful, as SFA ranked 12th in the league from pretty much everywhere on the floor. Only a sky-high free throw rate and occasional success in transition and on the offensive glass kept the Jacks competitive on this end on a nightly basis. Keller’s squad mainly ran offense through the pick-n-roll where Bogues was nothing short of a wizard zooming off ball screens and attacking the hoop. SFA doesn’t have a creator quite Bogues’s caliber this season, but they’ll still run a heavy dose of PnR and should have a more balanced offensive attack overall.
Kevon Harris will move into the primary go-to role after earning All-Conference honors once again last season. Harris led the Southland in scoring in league play, ranked in the top ten in usage and O-rating, and put up a scorching conference shooting slash of .613 / .405 / .750 (2P / 3P / FT). He was an oasis of efficiency last year in a desert of inefficiency and will be the Jacks’ clear alpha and leader in 2019-20. His two major returning counterparts are Nathan Bain and John Comeaux, both of whom should occupy significant roles once again this season. Bain saw a huge spike in PT last year, starting 23 games and adding floor spacing from the 4 spot. He’ll face stiff competition from the incoming JUCO guys, but Bain should still be a regular part of the rotation. Comeaux is a prime candidate to take over full-time PG duties after stepping in a bit last season. He can be a sticky defender and shot fairly well from the outside on offense, he’ll just need to stay healthy. Sophomore guard Oddyst Walker played in every game as a freshman and word is his outside shot is much improved, but he’s liable to get passed up in the rotation after shooting and handling the ball poorly last year.
The preseason poll for the Southland is out and SFA was picked to finish 4th. I’m not sure people would pick them 4th if they truly knew how good the crop of players Keller brings in are projected to be. First, there’s 3-star forward Sama’Zha Hart, a super long and very skilled 3/4 tweener who can handle it on the perimeter and bang inside. He’ll be a matchup nightmare on the outside against bigger defenders and could be a real asset defensively. Then there’s the four top 100 JUCO recruits, a number not even matched by most Power 6 schools. Roti Ware (#97 recruit) and Cameron Johnson (#70) will compete for starts in the backcourt while Gavin Kensmil (#78) and Demiere Brown (#86) will battle it out in the frontcourt. Ware and Johnson were both Honorable Mention NJCAA All-Americans last season, each leading their schools in scoring with over 16 PPG. Ware is a quick combo guard with a money outside shot (40.7% last season from 3) while Johnson is more of a slasher on offense. Both should play huge roles this year. Kensmil led respectable JUCO Navarro College in scoring last year after starting his career at Iona in 2017-18. He’s a force on the block and on the boards at 6’7” 255 lbs. and has a good shot at manning the starting 5-spot on day one after a fantastic showing during SFA’s European trip this offseason. Brown led his JUCO in scoring and rebounding last year; he can step out when needed, but SFA will use him primarily as a power forward option off the bench. Rounding out Keller’s JUCO recruits is David Kachelries and Charlie Daniels. Kachelries is not a top 100 recruit but still a great get for a squad in need of ball handling. He started his career at NJIT before averaging nearly 7 APG at his JUCO last season. He’ll add shooting, ball handling, and perimeter defense to the Jacks this year. Daniels is a shot blocker and rebounder who can provide minutes backing up the 5.
Two more freshmen (and former HS teammates), Kharee McDaniel and Calvin Solomon, also join SFA this season. McDaniel will add depth at the point guard spot while Solomon will add versatility on the wing and defense.
Speaking of defense, SFA wasn’t great on that end either in 2018-19. A top 200 defense since 2006 (usually a top 100, sometimes a top 50), the Jacks staggered to their worst KenPom defensive rank since 2005 (254th). The Jacks forced turnovers like they usually do (29th in TO%), but teams had a field day teeing off from deep. SFA ranked dead last in the Southland in 3PA rate allowed and 12th in 3P% defense while being relatively stout inside. Keller pressed just 3% of possessions last year, down from 10% and 15% the two years prior, but that may jump back up to the norm with a fully healthy and deep roster.
Bottom Line: 2018-19 will likely prove to be a blip on the radar as SFA looks to reestablish dominance in the Southland. Keller has a deep and talented squad led by arguably the best player in the conference. Offense should be light years improved from last year and health and boosted athleticism should bring the defense back up to normal SFA levels as well.
4. Central Arkansas
Key Returners: DeAndre Jones, Hayden Koval, Eddy Kayouloud, SK Shittu, Khaleem Bennett, Jared Chatham, Aaron Weidenaar
Key Losses: Thatch Unruh, Matthew Mondesir, Tanner Schmidt, Jordan Grant
Key Newcomers: Rylan Bergersen (BYU), Jaxson Baker (Redshirt), Lewis McDaniel, Masai Olowokere, Collin Cooper, Jonas Munson
Lineup:
Outlook: Central Arkansas took a predictable step back last season following the departure of former Southland Player of the Year Jordan Howard. The Bears were a young team heavily reliant on freshmen in 2018-19 but still managed to notch a respectable 8-10 record and qualify for the SLC postseason tournament. Russ Pennell has done an admirable job building the UCA program and now enters his 6th year at the helm with a team ready to compete for a conference title. This year’s version of the Bears should hopefully have the experience and consistency to avoid a 7-game skid like last season, which ultimately derailed an otherwise solid league showing.
UCA has two key returning cornerstones who should lead it to the conference upper echelon in 2019-20. DeAndre Jones, a point guard who blossomed in his sophomore season, appears poised to take on the mantle of one of the best guards in the league. He led the Southland in assist rate last season while maintaining a manageable turnover clip, ranked 2nd in FT rate (and shot 81.2%), and 3rd in steal rate on the other end. Jones paces Pennell’s uptempo transition-focused attack and will be the heart and soul of the Bears this season. Pennell’s squads have consistently been among the fastest in the country, ranking 2nd in the SLC in pace last year, and work through the post and beyond the three-point line to generate points. Post play mainly goes through Hayden Koval, a 7-footer who has started garnering pro interest with his elite shot-blocking and ability to shoot the long-ball on offense. Koval’s potential is through the roof, and he should be on the shortlist of SLC POY contenders in 2019-20. While he could stand to improve on sub-par rebounding numbers, Koval is a dominant paint presence on defense, leading the Southland each of the past two years in block rate and earning a spot on the All-Defense squad in 2018-19. And, against Oral Roberts in the October charity exhibition game, Koval showed off his offensive potential by hanging 27 points on the Eagles en route to a victory.
Three sophomores will play important supporting roles next to Jones and Koval this season. Eddy Kayouloud has “breakout stud” written all over him in permanent ink. He showed flashes of his ability to score in bunches during his freshman campaign and now will look to add consistency to his game. Kayouloud can play the 3 or 4 and provides rebounding, shooting, and defense to the Bears. Khaleem Bennett will also look to step up in year two following a productive rookie season; UCA will look to him as a source for scoring on the wing. Finally, SK Shittu returns to play a key frontcourt backup role. Shittu was UCA’s highest used player when on the floor last year but was very inefficient, turning the ball over frequently, notching just one assist, and shooting poorly. His talent should allow him to bounceback in 2019-20.
Rounding out UCA’s returners are Jared Chatham and Aaron Weidenaar, two players who could earn starts this season. Chatham is a 3/4 tweener who can rebound and space the floor, while Weidenaar is mostly a three-point shooting threat. The pair will compete with BYU transfer Rylan Bergersen for minute on the wing. Bergersen brings more shooting the UCA roster and is a guy Pennell has spoken very highly of during the offseason. Against ORU, Bergersen poured in 19 points to aid Koval and Co. in taking down the Eagles.
Pennell likely mainly sticks to an 8-man rotation, but a couple other newcomers could see some spot minutes. Jaxson Baker, a redshirt last season, is a big wing with potential to develop into a productive SLC player. Lewis McDaniel and Collin Cooper are both combo guards who will provide backup to Jones. Masai Olowokere, Udonis Haslem’s nephew, is an athletic wing with good pedigree, and Jonas Munson is a 7-footer with rim protection potential.
Defense has been UCA’s Achilles Heel under Pennell, which has ultimately held them back from rising higher in the Southland ranks. Pennell continued to play straight man, primarily in the half-court, keeping with his 2018-19 trend of abandoning is previously heavily used zone. With more experience up and down the roster, size, and athleticism, the Bears should be better on this end in 2019-20 even if only league average.
Bottom Line: Central Arkansas has the talent, experience, and SLC star power to compete for a league title this season. Pennell has built a strong program in Conway and now has arguably his best team ever since becoming head coach in 2014. The Bears will look to punch their first ever NCAA Tournament bid since joining the DI ranks in 2006.
5. Abilene Christian
Key Returners: Payten Ricks, Damien Daniels, Joe Pleasant, Trey Lenox, Clay Gayman, Kolton Kohl, Hayden Howell
Key Losses: Jaren Lewis, Jaylen Franklin, Jalone Friday, BJ Maxwell, Hayden Farquhar
Key Newcomers: Coryon Mason (JUCO), Mahki Morris (JUCO), Reggie Miller (JUCO), Immanuel Allen (JUCO), Airion Simmons
Lineup:
Outlook: It only took two seasons for ACU to crash the Field of 68 following the arbitrary (and totally pointless) four-year “transition period” to Division I. The Wildcats turned in a hell of a season, finishing 2nd in the Southland and winning the postseason tourney championship for the honor of getting blown out by Kentucky in the Round of 64. Joe Golding has steadily built this program into a Southland power, improving ACU’s KenPom rank each year he’s been at the helm:
Golding will face a mighty challenge improving on last year’s rank given the loss of four star players.
Abilene Christian hung its hat on defense last year, ranking #1 in the Southland per KenPom and 121st in the country. The Cats ranked 9th in the country in turnover rate, using high ball pressure in the halfcourt to force steals, errant passes, and to chase opponents off the three-point line. Golding’s roster was littered with athleticism across all five positions, making scoring against the Cats (primarily in the Southland) a tall task. ACU will continue to have athleticism but losing guys like Jaren Lewis and All-Defensive Team member Jaylen Franklin will likely cause ACU to regress on this end of the floor.
The Cats were a balanced squad on offense, playing mainly through the post (2nd nationally in possessions used via post-ups per Synergy) but also shooting an above-average rate of threes for a SLC squad. Golding’s strength this year is in his guards, so while ACU will play a fair amount through big men Kolton Kohl and Hayden Howell, the Cats may elect to ramp up the pace in 2019-20 and become a more perimeter-oriented offensive squad. Lewis and Jalone Friday led the team in usage last year, each player preferring to work on the block; their departures should shift the focus towards the backcourt.
Payten Ricks, an honorable mention All-Southland member last year, will be ACU’s leader in 2019-20. Ricks is an excellent shooter and on-ball defender who should take on a much higher usage role this season. A career 37.6% 3P shooter on 274 attempts, Ricks was excellent in transition and on spot-ups last year, but he’ll need to develop into a more dynamic offensive threat this season. 92.4% of Ricks’s made three-pointers last year were assisted, per Hoop Math.
5’7” point guard Damien Daniels will be handed the keys to the car this season, replacing Franklin, a sure-handed PG who helped keep ACU among the league’s best in ball security. Daniels is a sticky on-ball defender who can shoot or score off the bounce on the offensive end. A pair of 6’0” JUCO transfers, Reggie Miller (no relation) and Coryon Mason, are both combo guards who will chip in to the ball handling effort. Miller started his career with Texas State before entering the JUCO ranks last year; Mason comes from famed JUCO Ranger College, last year’s NJCAA national runner-up.
Trey Lenox, a jack-of-all-trades type of player, will be an everyday starter on the wing in front of JUCO transfers Immanuel Allen and Mahki Morris and sophomore Tobias Cameron. Allen was a 3-star recruit coming out of high school; he’s a big athletic wing who should find plenty of PT in his first season at ACU. Morris is a versatile scorer and shooter. Cameron probably remains in a deeper reserve role.
Up front, Kolton Kohl, a 7-foot junior, will take on a much larger role this season. He’s turned in sky high rebounding rates and has proven to be an effective shot blocker in limited time. Joe Pleasant will look to make a sophomore leap at the 4; he’s a rebounding forward who can step out and space the floor when needed. Clay Gayman will be one of ACU’s best shooters this season and will challenge Lenox and Pleasant for a starting spot. Hayden Howell will provide rebounding and post scoring after redshirting last season; he had 20 & 9 off the bench in one of ACU’s games in the U.S. Virgin Islands this offseason. Freshman forward Airion Simmons, a load at 6’5” 264 lbs. could also carve out a consistent role this year in the frontcourt or on the wing.
Bottom Line: The Cats will take a step back this season with the loss of Lewis, Friday, Franklin, and Maxwell, but Golding has enough talent to finish in the top four of the Southland in 2019-20. ACU has shooting this year with Ricks, Mason, and Gayman and low block threats in Kohl and Howell. Defense will continue to be a key for the Cats with an offense liable to struggle from time-to-time without a proven creator.
6. Lamar
Key Returners: VJ Holmes, Davion Buster, TJ Atwood
Key Losses: Jordan Hunter, Josh Nzeakor, Nick Garth, Christian Barrett, Laquarious Paige, Edwin Jeudy, Mike Kolawole, Grehlon Easter, Jordan Foster
Key Newcomers: Ellis Jefferson (JUCO), Kain Harris (Kent State), Dylan Morrison (JUCO), Anthony Cameron (JUCO), Ayaan Sohail, Anderson Kopp, Corey Nickerson, David Muoka
Lineup:
Outlook: Perhaps someone closer to the Lamar program in Beaumont, Texas can inform me why the Cardinals lost so many players to the transfer wire this offseason. SEVEN guys opted to take their talents elsewhere following a season in which Lamar tied for 3rd in the Southland and won 19+ games for the third straight year under Tic Price. To make matters worse, Nick Garth and Josh Nzeakor, arguably Lamar’s two most important players from 2018-19, graduated this offseason leaving Price with a roster chock full of newcomers and uncertainty. The Cardinals have been a competitive team nearly every year with Price at the helm, but the magnitude of roster turnover will make 2019-20 especially challenging.
Price’s teams have historically dominated the offensive glass and last year was no exception. Lamar ranked 11th in the country in offensive rebounding rate (KenPom) which fueled their 2nd-best Southland offense. Price squads also typically eschew the three-ball in favor of dribble drives to the hoop where they earn countless trips to the foul line – Lamar ranked 11th in the country in free throw rate in 2018-19. Per Synergy, the Cardinals ranked 9th in the country in percentage of points scored via offensive stickbacks, 19th via transition, and were heavily reliant on post-ups and isolation. The transition stat is an interesting one, as Lamar was just an average team from a pace perspective, but Price’s squad looked to attack immediately off steals. Per Hoop-Math, Lamar ranked 10th in the country last year in percentage of initial FGA 0-10 seconds following a steal (versus 95th following a rebound and 83rd following a score). Price brings in enough athleticism to maintain this style of play – and not enough shooting to become a three-point reliant squad.
Defensively, Lamar was an average squad in 2018-19 who rebounded well and forced some turnovers (as all Southland teams tend to do). Price has good defenders this year returning in VJ Holmes and TJ Atwood, and also brings in a couple promising stoppers. While rebounding may take a hit, the Cardinals should be able to stay right in the middle of the league from a defensive ranking perspective.
Holmes, Atwood, sophomore guard Davion Buster (aka Dave & Busters – shout out Jim), and junior forward Avery Sullivan are Price’s lone returners from last season. Holmes is super valuable due to his versatility and ability to play multiple spots on both ends of the floor. On offense, Holmes can handle the ball and play 1-3, but he needs to take on a higher usage role in 2019-20. Per KenPom, Holmes used just 15.7% of Lamar’s possessions when on the floor last year, the 10th highest mark on the team. While not a great shooter, Holmes is deadly driving the lane and led the Southland in FT rate in 2018-19. Atwood started every game before going down with a leg injury last season. He’ll be a central focus offensively for the Cardinals, a player they can play through at the high or low post. Buster will look to break out in his second season following a dynamite finish to 2018-19. In the final eight games of the year, Buster averaged 16 PPG in 26.4 MPG, establishing his ability to be the alpha scorer on the floor. Despite his stature, Buster is much better served as an off-ball threat offensively versus a lead ball handler – he knocked down 43.7% of his 3PA last year. Sullivan should be in line for a big improvement after playing limited minutes last season; he’ll be on the shortlist of starting 5-man candidates.
Everyone else on this roster is new this season, but we at least have some idea of who the major impact players should be. In the backcourt, look for JUCO transfer Ellis Jefferson, Kent State transfer Kain Harris, and freshman Anderson Kopp to make the biggest splash in 2019-20. Jefferson is a fringe top 100 JUCO recruit (and a 3-star out of HS) who can run the point and score from anywhere. His range and speed will be a tough combination to guard in the Southland and should help pull bodies away from the likes of Buster on the arc. Harris started his career at Tulane where he was a very high usage player in two seasons. Like Jefferson, Harris is a three-level scorer who should fight for starting minutes throughout the season. An injury at Kent held him back last year, but he should be good to go for the 2019-20 campaign. Kopp is a 3-star recruit who passed on an offer from Texas A&M, among others, to play for Lamar. His biggest asset is shooting, which should earn him plenty of time on the floor this season either in the starting five or off the pine. Freshman Ayaan Sohail is the fourth newcomer in the backcourt; he’ll add ball handling and defense in a deeper reserve role.
Up front the guy to watch his Corey Nickerson, a high-level scorer and rebounder who can function as a stretch 4 on offense and protect the rim on defense. He’ll be one of Price’s most impactful newcomers with his athleticism and ability to affect multiple facets of the game. David Muoka, a 6’10” big man out of Hong Kong, will provide shot blocking and maybe an occasional spot start. JUCO forwards Dylan Morrison and Anthony Cameron round out the frontcourt rotation.
Bottom Line: Like most teams undergoing heavy roster reconstruction, Lamar has a wide range of potential outcomes this season. Price has the coaching history and enough talent coming in through the transfer wire and HS ranks to compete near the top of the Southland in 2019-20. If the various pieces fail to mesh, though, the Cardinals could take a tumble down the standings.
Tier 2
7. McNeese State
Key Returners: Sha’Markus Kennedy, Roydell Brown, Trey Johnson
Key Losses: Kevin Hunt, James Harvey, Jarren Greenwood, Trey Touchet, Adrian Brown, Malik Hines, Will Robinson
Key Newcomers: Jalen Poyser (St. Bonaventure), AJ Lawson (North Texas), Dru Kuxhausen (JUCO), Leondre Washington (JUCO), Jeremy Harrell (Redshirt), Chris Orlina (JUCO), Truman Moore (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Heath Schroyer endured a rough start to his head coaching career at McNeese, finishing just 5-13 in the Southland, good for 12th in the league. Injuries played a factor in the Cowboys’ ineptitude, but Schroyer also inherited a roster with heavy turnover, usually a sure sign of growing pains. Several players left the program this offseason but Schroyer brought back the two that matter most in Sha’Markus Kennedy and Roydell Brown. Those two plus a slew of talented newcomers have the Lake Charles Cowboys in good position to compete in the middle of the SLC in 2019-20.
Kennedy and Brown were the top two scorers and rebounders on last year’s a team. Brown missed about the last half of conference play with injury but still managed honorable mention All-Conference honors. Kennedy strangely didn’t earn a spot on an All-Conference squad after ranking in the top five in the league in both OR% and DR%, 3rd in block rate, and 6th in usage. The pair paced McNeese’s offense last season, as the Cowboys played through the paint, attacked the rim, and scored most of their points from the foul line and off the glass. Kennedy will continue to be one of the main options inside – he averaged over 21 PPG in the Bahamas during McNeese’s three-day tour and the Cowboys ranked 11th in the country in possessions finished via post-up in 2018-19. Brown, the 2nd highest used player in the SLC last season, is listed as a guard but he’ll play almost exclusively 4 for the Cowboys. Brown is the best rebounder in the team (arguably the league) and attacks the basket off the bounce as good as any in the Southland. In 2018-19, Brown led the league in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Both Kennedy and Brown earned preseason All-Conference honors in October and look to lead McNeese back to the Southland postseason tournament.
Trey Johnson is Schroyer’s other key returner, a mostly defensive guard who Schroyer thinks is the best perimeter defender on the squad. Given his minimal offensive impact and the amount of talent flowing through the transfer wire, Johnson likely resumes a bench role in 2019-20. The transfers set to make the biggest impact in the backcourt this season are Jaylen Poyser (St. Bonaventure), AJ Lawson (North Texas), Dru Kuxhausen (JUCO), and Leondre Washington (JUCO). Poyser can handle the ball and score from all three levels of the floor; he played for UNLV prior to being a Bonnie and has had success as a scorer each year in college. Lawson will have the biggest impact of the newcomers; he averaged over 20 PPG in the Bahamas and will run point for the Cowboys. At 6’5”, Lawson gives McNeese elite size on the perimeter and a potent scoring option on offense. Kuxhausen, a borderline top 100 JUCO recruit, is a big-time shooter who knocked down over 50% of his 3PA at Western Nebraska last year on over 200 attempts. Schroyer has repeatedly called him the best shooter in the country. Washington ran point at Robert Morris prior to playing in JUCO last season; he gets to the line and adds value as an on-ball stopper. Sam Baker, another JUCO transfer, will add shooting while freshmen Evan Palmquist and Chris Warren will likely fill deeper reserve spots in their first season.
Jeremy Harrell, a redshirt last season, and Chris Orlina, the #91 JUCO recruit in the land, both have strong claims to crash the starting five this year alongside the incumbents Kennedy and Brown. Harrell is an athletic inside/out scorer while Orlina is a long athletic wing who can the 3 or 4, drive to the cup, and shoot a bit from deep. JUCO transfer Truman Moore, a former Utah Valley recruit, will add muscle inside.
McNeese will need sure up the defensive side of the ball if it truly wants to compete in the Southland. The Cowboys ranked 12th in the league in defense last year per KenPom (341st nationally) and were repeatedly scorched from deep. Schroyer played a lot of zone last year, mostly a 1-3-1 trapping variety or a straight 2-3, which led to susceptibility on the glass and from outside the arc. This roster has the athletes to be better on this end in 2019-20.
Bottom Line: McNeese has enough raw talent to be a top four Southland team, but I’ve overrated this program almost every year I’ve written the SLC preview. Schroyer had success at Portland State and UT Martin and has already proven he can bring in talent to Lake Charles – now he just needs to prove he can win.
8. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Key Returners: Jashawn Talton, Elijah Schmidt, Tony Lewis, Irshaad Hunte, Myles Smith, Jalon Clark, Perry Francois
Key Losses: Kareem South, Emmanuel Toney, Jake Babic, Tre Gray, Kyle Brown
Key Newcomers: Javae Lampkins (Redshirt), Nolan Bertain (UAB), Jalen White, Aristotelis Sotiriou, Jordan Hairston, Edgars Kaufmanis
Lineup:
Outlook: Flashback to the TAMUCC 2018-19 Preview: “This could be one of the better defensive units in the Southland this season, but it could also be one of the worst offensively.”
Hey, I wrote that! And it was accurate! Yes, the Islanders were indeed one of the best defensive teams in the Southland last season, ranking 4th overall per Kenpom, which propelled their overachieving season in which they finished a respectable 9-9 in league play and 6th in the standings. Likewise, an anemic offense (10th per KenPom) held TAMUCC back from making a run in the SLC Tourney. Of course, injuries also played a huge role in TAMUCC’s limited ceiling, as big man Perry Francois missed the whole season and point guard Myles Smith played just 10 games. Kudos to Willis Wilson for out-performing preseason expectations despite this and staying competitive. Wilson loses several key pieces from last year’s squad including two of his best outside shooters, but he does bring back a solid core to compete once again. Similar to the last couple years, TAMUCC feels like a middling Southland team heading into 2019-20.
The Islanders were the second slowest team in the SLC last season. Most points came from inside the paint and Wilson’s squad was once again averse to shooting (and making) three-pointers (bit of a trend with his teams). This season, TAMUCC has plenty of bodies in the frontcourt, suggesting post play and the offensive glass will once again be a key part of their offensive identity in 2019-20. Turnovers have plagued the Islanders the past two seasons, but Smith’s return at PG gives them a steady on-ball presence that should hopefully limit those missteps. Smith is arguably the best free throw shooter in the conference and is capable of being a weapon from the outside and a reliable source of scoring. Wilson went to the recruiting trail to bring in more shooting to support Smith, including UAB transfer Nolan Bertain (who is applying for a waiver), freshman Jordan Hairston, and JUCO transfer Edgars Kaufmanis. Bertain shot 45.3% at his JUCO two seasons ago and will be a 3P specialist off the pine. Hairston can run some point and be a future leader for this team, while Kaufmanis will provide shooting from the wing. Redshirt sophomore Javae Lampkins sat out last season but should be a key contributor in 2019-20; he knocked down 41.7% of his 3PA in JUCO two years ago.
Former JUCO All-American Jashawn Talton will look to move into the alpha role this season for the Islanders. Talton can do everything on the floor and score inside or out. He led TAMUCC with a 35.9% 3P clip last season, got to the line frequently, and doubled as a solid, versatile defender against wings or 4s. This year expect Talton to elevate his game to All-Conference caliber as he takes on the mantle of TAMUCC’s “most important” player.
Behind Talton on the wing will be promising sophomore Jalon Clark and freshmen Jalen White and Aris Sotiriou. Clark has could be a breakout candidate this year as he fights for more minutes; he’s a big wing who can score and defend. White is a load driving to the cup and is physically ready for DI ball. Either player could see a handful of starts this season. Sotiriou, an experienced international player with the Greek U18 squad, is a versatile offensive player who will add size to the perimeter. Walk-on Peyton Smith may also see some run on the ball.
Wilson has one of the deeper frontcourts in the Southland with four experienced, upperclassmen all capable of eating minutes. Last year, Wilson didn’t play two true bigs together very often, opting to use Talton at the 4 in most lineups, but with Francois’s return form injury, he may not choose to go bigger. Elijah Schmidt is the “garbage man” of the team, a paint-bound forward who rebounds well and ranked 6th in the league in block rate last season. He led the league in FG% two years ago and ranked 11th last season – of course, 67.1% of his shots did come at the rim. Senior Tony Lewis is a big rebounder who can protect the paint, while fellow senior Irshaad Hunte and Francois are more pure shot blockers who also hit the glass hard. One improvement point for the frontcourt is their fouling tendencies of years past – TAMUCC has been one of the worst teams in the nation at sending opponents to the FT line. The Islanders are lockdown in the paint on D (29th in 2P% D last year), but it’s often negated by so many free point opportunities.
Bottom Line: Similar to last year, TAMUCC should have one of the best defenses in the SLC, which will keep them competitive in the middle of the league. If Talton and/or Smith can evolve into a go-to high-level scorer and improve TAMUCC’s poor offense of the past two years, the ceiling raises even higher.
9. Houston Baptist
Key Returners: Ian DuBose, Philip McKenzie, Ty Dalton, Benjamin Uloko, Jackson Stent, Jalon Gates, Qon Murphy
Key Losses: Oliver Lynch-Daniels, Edward Hardt, Braxton Bonds, Stephen O’Suji
Key Newcomers: Ryan Gomes (Mount St. Mary’s), Noah Thomasson, Myles Pierre, Zach Iyeyemi, Hunter Janacek (JUCO), Jason Thompson
Lineup:
Outlook: Houston Baptist enjoyed an enormous improvement over a disaster 2017-18 campaign in which the Huskies sputtered to a 6-25 (2-16) mark. Last season, HBU climbed to a respectable 8-10 league record (T-7th) and improved its KenPom rank 52 spots from the year prior, a consequence of more experience, more continuity, and fewer injuries. Ron Cottrell enters his 12th season as HBU’s head coach – his squads have usually been solid Southland competitors but never spectacular. The star player from last year’s team is back to lead a good crop of returners, so we could see the Huskies crack the Southland top five for just the second time in school history. HBU feels like a middling Southland squad capable of that fringe top five finish as its ceiling and a bottom four finish as its floor.
HBU has consistently been one of the fastest teams in the country under Cottrell, ranking 9th in tempo last season (#1 in the SLC) and 14th in 2017-18. Transition, rim attack, glass crashing, and the free throw line are what makes this offense tick, one built around speed and bullying on the boards. The Huskies don’t take many threes, but Ian DuBose, that star player mentioned above, is one of the deadliest shooting (an all-around offensive) weapons in the league – with him returning to the fold, HBU should continue to be one of the better offensive units in the Southland.
The Huskies scored 1.08 PPP when DuBose was on the floor last season versus just 1.01 PPP when he sat, emphasizing his importance to this roster from a scoring perspective. As we’ll get to later in the preview, HBU’s defense is never good so DuBose and his supporting cast will need to be potent offensively to win ball games in 2019-20. DuBose was a 2nd Team All-SLC performer last season and figures to etch his name on the 1st Team this year; he led the Huskies in scoring and rebounding and ranked second in assists (1st in assist rate) last year. HBU will continue to rely heavily on transition and the offensive glass to score points, but DuBose gives them a go-to half-court or late shot-clock safety valve whenever needed.
One significant question to be answered this season is who will man the point position. Point guard play is crucial in college basketball and HBU lost last year’s floor general, Braxton Bonds, to graduation this offseason. Word on the street is freshman Myles Pierre will be the starting PG from day one, a rarity in the national landscape and usually a recipe for inefficiencies. DuBose can assist in ball handling duties, but the Huskies would prefer to keep him off the ball where his shooting and creation is most deadly. Pierre has the physicality to be a Division I starter right away, but Husky fans should expect to see growing pains in his first season.
Returning with DuBose is a slew of role players, some partial starters last year, others deeper reserves. Philip McKenzie and Ty Dalton will likely start on the wing/4 for HBU this season alongside DuBose and Pierre. McKenzie is a low usage player offensively but does the dirty work, particularly on the glass. Dalton is a skilled wing who can shoot it from deep (37.1% from 3 last year), drive, or pull-up off the bounce. Qon Murphy will take on a larger role behind Dalton on the wing – he has plenty of two-way potential. Jalon Gates will resume his high usage spark plug role off the pine in 2019-20 – Cottrell uses him as instant offense and he’s liable to lead the Huskies in scoring on a handful of nights this year. JUCO transfer Hunter Janacek probably sees a good chunk of playing time with his shooting ability and size on the wing. Freshman Noah Thomasson, a slashing 2-guard, will likely play sparingly in his first season.
Inside, 6’7” forward Benjamin Uloko will see action at the 5 after starting three games as a freshman. He’s an active rebounder and good finisher at the rim. Senior forward Jackson Stent is a stretch big who can space the floor, a rarity on the HBU roster.
Mount St. Mary’s transfer Ryan Gomes will make the biggest impact of the frontcourt newcomers. He was a partial starter over two seasons at the Mount and will add size and rim protection to HBU. Freshman Jason Thompson should also play a key role in his first season – he projects as a versatile defender. Big man Zach Iyeyemi will round out Cottrell’s frontcourt rotation.
Defensively, we shouldn’t expect anything to change from prior years. HBU has never had a good defense under Cottrell and ranked 9th in the Southland last year, per KenPom. Due in part to the higher-than-average zone Cottrell implements, HBU was scorched from deep last season, though it did pull down the highest defensive rebounding rate in the league. Cottrell will press full court often in an effort to speed up the game and get the ball back into his offense’s hands – like most Southland squads, the Huskies are adept at forcing turnovers.
Bottom Line: HBU has a high range of possible outcomes this year within the tight, competitive middle of the Southland. DuBose should have no trouble averaging close to 20 PPG and leading a better-than-most Southland offense, but the defensive side of the ball likely holds HBU back from truly contending near the top of the league.
10. Nicholls State
Key Returners: Kevin Johnson, Elvis Harvey, Brandon Moore Jr., Ryghe Lyons, Jeremiah Buford
Key Losses: Jeremiah Jefferson, Gavin Peppers, Daniel Regis, Danny Garrick
Key Newcomers: Dexter McClanahan (Savannah State), D’Angelo Hunter (West Virginia), Lorenzo McGhee (JUCO), Andre Jones (Little Rock)
Lineup:
Outlook: Nicholls took an expected step back in 2018-19 after Richie Riley left the head coaching post for South Alabama. Youngster Austin Claunch (he’s not even 30) held serve in his first season despite the high roster turnover and has kept Riley’s trend going of bringing in transfers from the DI and JUCO wire instead of hitting the HS ranks. Ironically, both Riley and Claunch finished 14-17 (7-11) in their first years at the helm of NSU, but it’s hard to see Claunch pulling off a 21-11 (15-3) mark in 2019-20. Some of those promising transfers will help offset the departure of Jeremiah Jefferson and Gavin Peppers, among others, but NSU still seems destined to finish near the cut-line for the Southland conference tournament.
Claunch dialed back the tempo from the Riley team that played at the 12th fastest pace in the country. NSU still played fast (4th in the SLC in tempo), but transition was less of a focus than under Riley. NSU also became extremely reliant on the three-ball last season, notching the highest 3PA rate in the Southland and 22nd highest nationally. Personnel of course played a huge role in this trend – NSU ranked dead last in the SLC in FT rate and 2PFG%, but Claunch clearly had a focus on spacing the floor and gunning from deep. Jefferson, Peppers, and Danny Garrick combined to shoot 587 of NSU’s 883 3PA (66.4%), so this year’s squad likely relies less on the three-ball, especially with the influx of athleticism from the transfer wire.
Defensively, Claunch reduced the full-court pressure under Riley (though NSU still pressed at the 77th highest rate in the land) but continued a keen focus on denying three-point looks. The lack of pressure (and turnover creation) combined with the three-point denial naturally led to susceptibility inside. Nicholls has the athletes and size to be better on this end, the Colonels just need to execute. I’d expect an uptick in defensive prowess overall this season with Claunch settling into year two and a more switchable roster.
From a personnel perspective, the Colonels will be heavily reliant on point guard Kevin Johnson, the undisputed team leader and floor general (or Colonel, I guess). Johnson led the Southland in minutes last season, ranked 4th in assist rate and 2nd in steal rate on the other end. His ball handling is his greatest asset as ball protection comes at a premium in the SLC – Nicholls ranked #1 in the conference in TO rate last season. The only piece missing from Johnson’s game is shooting, an area he’s struggled with throughout his career, but NSU will at least have scorers around him to help lessen that impact.
The other main backcourt returner is Jeremiah Buford, a knockdown wing shooter (47.4% from 3 last year) who will face stiff playing time competition from the slew of newcomers. Transfers Dexter McClanahan (Savannah State), D’Angelo Hunter (West Virginia), Andre Jones (Little Rock), and Lorenzo McGhee (JUCO) will all be in the conversation for starting spots and meaningful minutes. McClanahan got out of Savannah just in time as the school dropped from the DI ranks following last season. He was a 2nd Team All-MEAC performer in 2017-18 and led the Tigers in scoring. A three-level scorer, McClanahan can fill it up offensively, he just has a tendency to be inefficient – a 31.5% career 3P clip will need to improve. Jones and McGhee are also pure scorers who will make immediate impacts. Jones, an incredible athlete who can jump out of the gym, led Little Rock in scoring as a sophomore and ranked 5th in the Sun Belt in usage prior to being booted from the squad for detrimental conduct. He wasn’t efficient at all at Little Rock, but he’s clearly a talented scorer and any team could use a guy with his athleticism. McGhee poured in 15.6 PPG in JUCO last year and knocked down 37.1% of his 3PA, key for a Nicholls squad in need of shooting replenishment. Hunter should be an impact on both ends of the floor with his length and versatility. Like McGhee, Hunter was a good scorer in JUCO but rarely saw the floor at WVU.
NSU’s frontcourt took a major blow last season when Brandon Moore Jr. went down with injury midway through the year. Moore gives NSU versatility and switchability at the 4-spot and rebounds well despite being just 6’5”; he should be a regular starter in 2019-20. 6’8” forward Elvis Harvey enjoyed a solid first season in Thibodaux after coming from the JUCO ranks – he blocks shots, defends multiple positions, and can space the floor on offense. Harvey will compete with Moore and junior center Ryghe Lyons for starts this season. Lyons doesn’t add much to the rebounding cause despite being 6’10”, but he is the best shot blocker on the squad. Sophomore Abdul Alatishe should also see time up front after missing last semester due to eligibility issues.
Bottom Line: As has been the case the past few seasons, Nicholls is a hard team to peg heading into the year. Claunch has plenty of talent coming in from all over, but it remains to be seen if he can integrate that talent into a cohesive unit. 2020-21 offers more hope for the NSU program when four more transfers – Najee Garvin (Charlotte), Lafayette Dorsey (Pacific), Isaac Johnson (Western Illinois), and Jaylen Fornes (UNC Wilimington) – will be eligible.
11. Southeastern Louisiana
Key Returners: Von Julien, Brandon Gonzalez, Pape Diop, Jeremiah Saunders, Ty Brewer, Maxwell Starwood
Key Losses: Marlain Veal, Moses Greenwood, Kajon Brown, Keith Charleston, Parker Edwards
Key Newcomers: Max Brackman, Byron Smith, Isiah Kirby, Nick Caldwell, LaQuan Butler (JUCO), Maxim Romanov
Lineup:
Outlook: Jay Ladner was rewarded this offseason for turning around the Southeastern Louisiana program with a head coaching gig at Southern Miss. Ladner built the Lions into a Southland contender the past two years and developed some of the best players in school history, including two All-League players in Marlain Veal and Moses Greenwood. In Ladner’s place steps David Kiefer, an assistant at SLU since 2015 who also served under Frank Martin and in the JUCO ranks. The 35-year old Kiefer has a reputation as a skilled recruiter, something that should come in handy in a league not known for reeling in top tier talent. He’ll likely face some growing pains this season with the graduation of Veal and Greenwood, among others, but appears to be a good hire for the SLU program in the long-term.
SLU has struggled with ball protection the past several years under Ladner, even with two experienced guards last season in Veal and Von Julien. The Lions had the 3rd highest turnover rate in the country in 2018-19 despite also having one of the nation’s best assist rates. The fact that Ladner squads always played at a slower tempo magnified the ball protection issue, as precious possessions were few and far between. Julien, who completed his first season in a SLU uniform after transferring from Tulane, had a ridiculously high 33.5% TO rate, which is inexcusable for a primary ball handler and a guy who led the Southland in minutes played. Julien will take on a higher scoring load this season, likely playing off the ball and running off screens like Veal did last year. He’s a knockdown outside shooter (44.9% in SLC play last year) but will need to button down on turnovers as he steps into a leadership role. JUCO transfer LaQuan Butler appears to have the best chance at starting alongside Julien in the backcourt; he projects as a sticky on-ball defender and Kiefer thinks he can be one of the better lead guards in the league this year. Offensive rebounding will continue to be an important component of SLU’s offensive attack – last year the Lions led the conference in OR%. Greenwood takes with him a lot of rebounding, but forwards Pape Diop and Maxwell Starwood appear to have the requisite glass eating ability to keep SLU atop the league in rebounding.
Diop was efficient when he saw the floor last season, proving to be a capable floor spacer and rebounder. He’ll pair nicely with the paint-bound Starwood, a former Texas State Bobcat and skilled low-block scorer. Starwood can also block shots, key with the departure of Greenwood. Sophomore Ty Brewer will see more minutes in year two; he’s an elite athlete who can board, block shots, and get to the foul line. German freshman Max Brackman may also see time in the frontcourt in a limited role; he’s raw but there aren’t many 7-footers running around in the Southland.
Brandon Gonzalez likely occupies a starting spot on the wing; he’s arguably the best shooter on the team (37.7% career 3P shooter) and shot 117 threes last year compared to just 33 twos. Sophomore Jeremiah Saunders and freshmen Byron Smith, Isiah Kirby, Nick Caldwell, and Maxim Romanov will compete for time in the backcourt / wing rotation. Romanov and Caldwell (aka “Chachi) will be intriguing as big wings who can shoot and drive to the cup. Smith and Kirby will add ball handling and playmaking. Saunders is primarily a shooter.
SLU had the 5th best defense in the SLC last year, per KenPom, a consequence of taking away the three-ball, limiting ball movement, forcing turnovers, and controlling the glass. Kiefer should have a similarly good defense in 2019-20, but the loss of five key players and integration of so many newcomers often hinders improvement on this end of the floor. Ladner mixed in some fullcourt press and dropped into zone at an above average rate nationally, so Kiefer probably follows suit in that regard.
Bottom Line: Losing Veal and Greenwood will likely result in a down year for the SLU program (or more accurately, a regression to the mean the program has played at prior to the past three seasons). Kiefer is going to bring in talent and has the benefit of already being within the program the past several years, so SLU’s stint near the bottom of the conference may prove to be temporary.
Tier 3
12. Northwestern State
Key Returners: LaTerrance Reed, CJ Jones, Larry Owens, John Norvel, Dalin Williams, Brian White, Jacob Guest,
Key Losses: Ismael Lane, DeAndre Love, Malik Metoyer, Levonte Ott, Brandon Hutton, Darian Dixon, Alex Comanita
Key Newcomers: Chudier Bile (Bradley), Jovan Zelenbaba, Nikos Chougkaz, Robert Chougkaz, Gatdoar Kueth (JUCO), Trenton Massner (JUCO), Jairus Roberson (JUCO), Jamuare Gregg (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Mike McConathy enters his 21st season at the helm of Northwestern State coming off his two worst years since becoming the head coach in 1999-00. Injuries and transfers have played a factor in keeping NSU down the past couple seasons to be sure, but one has to question if this is the new norm in Natchitoches. Northwestern State did improve from a dreadful 2017-18 campaign, improving their conference win total by five games and sweeping SFA in the process, but still ranked 341st overall per KenPom. The Demons will be without Ismael Lane this season, a 1st Team All-SLC performer last year and the best scorer and defender on the roster. Lane gave NSU at least a small chance to win in every conference game they faced last year – without him, it could be another ugly year.
Lane’s departure will be felt particularly on the offensive end. Per Hoop Lens, the Demons scored (a still bad) 0.94 PPP when Lane was on the floor versus a disastrous 0.83 PPP when he sat. NSU ranked dead last in offensive efficiency in the Southland, per KenPom, and 342nd nationally. Poor three-point shooting (350th in 3P% for second straight year) and turnovers were once again the main culprits for NSU’s offensive futility. Lane at least gave them a consistent presence in the post, a guy they could play through on every possession. With him gone, the focus will shift to the backcourt.
LaTerrance Reed appears to be the new leader in the locker room coming off a season in which he was extremely inefficient. Reed’s poor play especially showed against elite competition, as he posted a miniscule 57.1 O-rating in six game against Tier A & B competition, per KenPom. His play in the SLC was better and he shot 34.8% from deep in conference, good signs for the coming season. This year, Reed will be burdened by a heavier usage role offensively and he must respond by protecting the ball and finishing shots. His 35.7% clip at the rim last season will not fly if NSU is to compete at all in the Southland in 2019-20.
Reed will be flanked by point guard CJ Jones, backup point guard Brian White, and combo guards John Norvel and Jacob Guest. Jones did a better job handling the ball last year after a tough 2017-18 campaign and proved he could facilitate and create for others. White played just 11 games before succumbing to injury; at 5’6”, White brings crazy energy to the court and scoring from the lead guard spot. Norvel is more of a hustle guy who needs to improve his shooting from everywhere, while Guest is a spot-up shooter who has only hit 24% of his 96 career 3PA.
The returning backcourt will be pushed for playing time by JUCO imports Gatdoar Kueth, Trenton Massner, and Jairus Roberson and freshman Jovan Zelenbaba. Massner is a shooter, Kueth is an athletic slasher, and Roberson can pull from anywhere on the floor. Roberson is the most likely candidate to see starts this season with his big-play potential. Zelenbaba is older than your typical freshman (22 years old) after serving in the Israeli army for two years. He’s brings steady ball handling, athleticism, and shooting to the roster.
Inside, Larry Owens likely moves into the primary starting center role, hoping to somewhat patch up the gigantic hole left by Lane. At 260 lbs., Owens is a load inside the paint and is a factor on the glass on both ends of the floor. Returning forward Dalin Williams started six game last year but didn’t show much while on the floor – his minutes are vulnerable to be taken by the incoming class. Bradley / JUCO transfer Chudier Bile and JUCO transfer Jamaure Gregg will be the two biggest impact players in the frontcourt this season. Bile never played a game at Bradley before coming to NSU but was an asset defensively in JUCO with his shot-blocking ability and switchability. Offensively, Bile can play on the perimeter and use his length and athleticism to beat slower bigs off the bounce. Gregg has been talked up by McConathy all offseason; he brings rebounding and physicality from the JUCO ranks. Greek freshmen twins Nikos Chougkaz and Robert Chougkaz could also play roles this year in the rotation. Nikos is a 6’10” “guard” (according to McConathy), a guy who can put the ball on the floor, post up on the block, or shoot it from deep. Robert is more of a stretch forward. Both guys need to add strength and experience before making a major contribution.
NSU ranked 7th in the SLC in defensive efficiency last season (per KenPom), propelled by the league’s best block rate (thanks to Lane). Expect this ranking to tank this year without Lane, though the defensive rebounding woes may improve a bit without Lane selling out for every potential blocked shot that comes his way. McConathy has the requisite guard athleticism to be a menacing fullcourt pressing team, we’ll just have to see if the frontcourt can hold up on the interior.
Bottom Line: Unfortunately for McConathy, by all indications a good basketball coach, Northwestern State appears destined to be a Southland cellar dweller for a third straight season. Without Lane, NSU will likely decline offensive and defensively, bad news for a team that was already among the worst in the country on both ends.
13. Incarnate Word
Key Returners: Augustine Ene, Dwight Murray Jr., Antoine Smith Jr., Cody Graham, Morgan Taylor
Key Losses: Christian Peevy, Charles Brown, Jordan Caruso, Jorden Kite
Key Newcomers: Des Balentine (Redshirt), Corey Sato (Redshirt), Brandon Swaby (Redshirt), Keaston Willis, Marcus Larsson, Drew Lutz, Derek Van Vlerah, Vincent Miszkiewicz
Lineup:
Outlook: Incarnate Word struggled in Caron Cunningham’s first year at the helm, a combination of youth, inexperience, injuries, and a general dearth of talent. The Cardinals sputtered to a 1-17 SLC record and scored only two wins over DI competition, one of which was (weirdly) against Tourney team North Dakota State. Cunningham once again will be challenged by high turnover and a youthful roster, but he does have a solid core of returners to help improve on the lone conference win from last season.
Cunningham brought a whole new style to UIW after taking over the program from Ken Burmeister. UIW’s tempo slowed to a crawl, ranking dead last in the SLC in offensive average possession length per KenPom. Rim attack was still a focus, as it had been under Burmeister, but the Cardinals weren’t nearly as reliant on the free throw line to score points. Despite leading the nation in FT% and shooting well from the outside, UIW still ranked 12th in the SLC in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), primarily a factor of turning the ball over at the 3rd highest rate in the nation. The Cardinals used the 23rd most possessions via isolation in the country, per Synergy, and mixed in a combination of post-ups, pick-n-rolls, and spot-ups. This year’s offense should largely be the same but at least the Cardinals should have a healthy Morgan Taylor for the whole season. Taylor was a game changer when he was in the lineup, but injury limited him to just 17 games. The Cardinals didn’t win a game without Taylor on the floor and went 6-11 (4 wins versus non-DI competition) when he was healthy. Taylor can run the point alongside fellow sophomore Dwight “DJ” Murray Jr. He’s all slash and no shot, converting just 2/25 of his 3PA last year. Taylor will likely be UIW’s leading scorer this season and continue to get to the foul line at a crazy high rate.
Murray will split point duties with Taylor; he was turnover prone last year but shot well from deep and was an active rebounder from the top of the key. Fellow guards Augustine Ene and Cody Graham likely also resume (at least partial) starting roles as well. Ene is a great shooter and put up an impressive 2P / 3P / FT slash of .519 / .407 / .855 last season. Cunningham prefers to play (and is forced to play) smaller lineups, so Ene will see plenty of time at the “4” this year. Graham has played a ton over the past two seasons despite his “walk-on” status; he moved off the ball last year and can chip in with shooting and facilitating.
New faces in the backcourt include Des Balentine, a JUCO transfer who redshirted last season, redshirt freshmen Corey Sato and Brandon Swaby, and true freshmen Keaston Willis and Drew Lutz. Balentine is former stud Evansville PG DJ Balentine’s little brother; he can play either guard spot and will bring much needed maturity to the floor. Sato is a knockdown shooter from the perimeter, Swaby is a ball handler and on-ball pest defensively. Willis is another shooter and Lutz is a scoring point guard. Cunningham likely dips deep into his bench this year with so much youth spanning the roster, looking for the optimal combination.
UIW was the worst defensive team in the country per KenPom last season, a consequence of lack of size and youth. The Cardinals ranked dead last in the nation in 2P% defense, allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 61.2% from inside the arc. UIW forced steals like all SLC teams but was often killed on the glass and in the paint, parting like the Red Sea for opposing players driving to the rim. Cunningham played significantly less zone than Burmeister did during his tenure, but it didn’t really matter what defense the Cardinals were in – they weren’t very good. Cunningham adds some size this year, but UIW will still largely struggle with making stops inside the arc and figures to once again be one of the worst defensive units in the land.
Antoine Smith and Bryce Davis are the two returning frontcourt players on the roster. Smith plays the 5 despite being stretchier in nature and standing just 6’7”. He was not much of a presence on the glass or defending the paint, but perhaps that improved in year two. Davis was hampered by injuries last year; he has a good frame and is vital to the Cardinals’ success this season as an experienced body up front. Marcus Larsson joins the squad from Norway; he’s 6’10”, which is the most important thing, and runs the floor well. Derek Van Vlerah comes in as a hyper-athletic wing while Vincent Miszkiewicz will round out the frontcourt rotation.
Bottom Line: Incarnate Word has won just three Southland games over the past two seasons. Cunningham might be slowly shifting the tides of the program, and the Cardinals may very well reach that win total in 2019-20, but it’d be surprising to see them finish any higher than 12th in the league.