- Ky McKeon
Note: Official 3MW picks + leans can be found at the bottom of this page in the attached photo. We also have made notes if we felt it relevant to do so - when we locked in a bet, any info we’re waiting on, etc.
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Hartford
Initial Thoughts: This spread is giant, and for good reason. Baylor has been dominant all season long and is a popular pick to run roughshod through the “South” region. Interestingly enough, KenPom has this game at just 21 points. Clearly oddsmakers aren’t buying the data guru’s ratings and are instead erring on the side of a major blowout.
Obviously, Hartford isn’t winning this game, so this preview will focus solely on if the Hawks can cover. This team isn’t devoid of talent. The Hawks feature former Marquette point guard Traci Carter in their starting five and competed with UConn in the first game of the season. On the flip side, the Hawks also lost by 34 to Villanova in a 63-possession game, which isn’t a great indicator heading into a matchup with one of the biggest Goliaths in the country.
Baylor on Offense: Hartford is better on the defensive side of the ball than it is offensively. The Hawks were the America East’s second-best defense this season, driven by their ability to force turnovers. Carter ranks 3rd in the nation in steal rate and is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country. Unfortunately, in this game he isn’t guarding A East ball handlers – he’s guarding All-American Jared Butler.
The Bears have one of the nation’s best offenses simply because they have so many weapons. Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell are all capable of creating their own shot in the half-court and all three shoot at or above 40% from 3 (the Bears are the best 3-point shooting team in the country). The Bears space the floor on offense with three guards often surrounding two forwards. Mark Vital and one of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua or Flo Thamba form a deadly hi-lo duo, and Matthew Mayer creates matchup nightmares with his floor stretching ability from the 4-spot.
Hartford is going to have to basically pick its poison if it goes man in the half-court. Butler off a pick-n-roll is basically instant offense and Mitchell is one of the best isolation scorers in the country.
To make matters worse for the Hawks, the Bears are the 4th best offensive rebounding team in the country. So, for those keeping track at home, Baylor can shoot, score off the bounce, and own the glass. It’s tough for elite defenses to stop the Bears, let alone a *pretty good* America East defense.
John Gallagher, Hartford’s coach of 11 years, used to play a ton of zone but went mostly man in 2020-21. I’d be a little surprised if he didn’t show some of his morphing 1-3-1 looks against a Baylor team that just completely overwhelms his Hawks from a size perspective. The 1-3-1 is better at limiting 3-point opportunities than the 2-3, but it’s still highly susceptible to offensive rebounding. Even if the Hartford zone takes the Bears away from the arc, it’s going to be vulnerable on the glass. Though, in a relatively small sample size, Baylor has been far less potent facing zones this season than it has been against straight man.
Hartford on Offense: Hartford runs a ball screen heavy offense, dominated by Carter and fellow senior Austin Williams. 6’10” sophomore Miroslav Stafl has been an excellent roll partner the entire season, and the Hawks have found success feeding him on the block or kicking to him on rolls.
However, this is still a below average offensive team. Hartford ranks 254th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom (8th in the America East), and it relies far more on defense to win ball games.
Baylor is a terrific ball screen defensive team. Per Synergy, the Bears rank in the 96th percentile in points per possession (PPP) allowed to a PnR ball handler. Mitchell is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country and every single one of Baylor’s perimeter players is long and athletic. Additionally, even though Stafl is a talented post scorer, he isn’t going to have much success against the likes of Thamba, Vital, and Tchamwa Tchatchoua.
Due to the Bears’ ability to shut down the paint, Hartford likely settles for tough outside shots. Carter and junior guard DJ Mitchell have been very good from deep this season, but Hartford is just 225th in the nation in 3P% despite ranking 50th in 3PA rate. If the Hawks are cold, this game won’t be remotely close.
Key Factor(s): Hartford’s best chance at staying within the number is keeping possessions to a minimum. The Hawks have played just five games all season that had over 70 possessions, and their power 6 contests played to 64 and 63, respectively. If they can keep this game to a crawl and shoot somewhat well from the outside, there’s a chance they don’t lose by 30.
The second factor is Baylor’s overall interest in making this game a blowout. It’s a foregone conclusion the Bears will advance, but will they keep the foot on the gas pedal for a full 40 minutes? Hartford is a very scrappy team – the Hawks will hustle, get on the floor, and play chippy all game. If Baylor balks even a little bit, covering 26 could be difficult in a low-possession game.
Final Prediction: Ultimately, I think the Bears are just too much for Hartford to handle. Baylor has extreme advantages in pretty much every facet of the game, and Hartford’s ability to force steals won’t be too effective against the steady upperclassmen Bear guards. This game should be a blowout, let’s just hope Baylor keeps the heat on down the stretch.
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Wisconsin
Initial Thoughts: This is one of the rare first round games where oddsmakers disagree with KenPom on which team should be favored. KenPom has this spread at Wisconsin -2, but most books opened this game with UNC as a two-point favorite.
Wisconsin ranks 10th in KenPom, which pretty much everybody agrees is nucking futs. The Badgers beat who they were supposed to beat and kept losses close for the most part. The most telling statistic on Wisconsin’s unlikely run to a top ten KenPom finish is that the Badgers are a combined 0-9 against the Big Ten teams who finished ahead of them in the conference standings. Wisconsin enters the Dance just 5-8 over its last 13 games.
UNC had a so-so year, but it too lacked impressive wins. A victory at home over Florida State is the Heels’ best win to date, otherwise it only has two other wins over NCAA Tournament teams: the mighty Orange of Syracuse and the Virginia Tech Hokies.
This is a heavyweight 8/9 matchup between two big-name schools who slightly underachieved during the regular season.
North Carolina on Offense: North Carolina plays the same way it’s played under Roy Williams for hundreds of years. The Tar Heels 1) run in transition, 2) feed the post, and 3) crash the glass. UNC is grabbing a ridiculous 41.3% of its misses this season making it by far the best offensive rebounding team in the country. The three-headed monster of Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot, and Day’Ron Sharpe is one of the biggest, talented and most formidable frontlines in the nation.
However, UNC’s offense hasn’t been efficient this season. In fact, this is Roy’s third-worst offensive team in his 18 years at the helm in Chapel Hill. Guard play has been a real weakness for the Heels all season long – there isn’t a Marcus Paige, Raymond Felton, Coby White, Joel Berry, etc. on this team. Instead there is Caleb Love, a 5-star prospect having one of the most disappointing seasons in college basketball. Love’s O-rating is 86.8, terrible for any player but catastrophic for a guy who uses the most possessions on a particular team. Love turns the ball over 25% of the time, shoots 26% from 3, and 35% from 2. He is a talented player that just hasn’t found his rhythm in college. Fellow freshman guard RJ Davis hasn’t been much better shooting just 32.3% from 3 and 38% inside the arc. With this type of anemic backcourt play, it’s hard to see the Heels making a deep run in March.
Wisconsin is used to big frontlines, heck the Badgers play a behemoth every other night in the Big Ten. Here’s how the elite bigs in the Big Ten fared against Bucky this season:
Now, those players kill every team, but the rebounding numbers in particular have to be concerning against the Tar Heels. Wisconsin is a big team, but only Micah Potter has shown a consistent ability to rebound effectively on the defensive end. Guys like Nate Reuvers, Aleem Ford, and Tyler Wahl have defensive rebounding rates more on par with wings than bigs.
UNC should have no trouble grabbing a bevy of boards in this one, and it should also find success in transition. Per Hoop-Math, UNC ranks 11th in the country in percentage of FGA in transition while Wisconsin ranks just 286th in preventing those particular opportunities. Illinois was able to speed up Wisconsin in two wins this season and play in the low 70s (possessions) – precisely what UNC will try to do.
Wisconsin’s best hope on this end will be to attack UNC ball handlers. The Heels turn the ball over a ton, and the Badgers should look to exploit the shaky, youthful UNC backcourt.
Wisconsin on Offense: Wisconsin is at the polar opposite of the spectrum pace-wise from the Tar Heels. The Badgers run the “Swing” in the half-court, a methodical motion offense that looks to create mismatches on the block and perimeter by way of UCLA screens, down screens, flex screens, fade screens, ball screens and snozzberry screens. When ran effectively it’s an incredibly difficult offense to stop, and can demoralize a defense by forcing it to defend a multitude of cuts and screens for 20 seconds only to finally be scored upon.
But Wisconsin’s offense has been stagnant this season, especially as of late. Per Bart Torvik, since February 1st the Badgers rank just 59th in offensive efficiency, not the mark of a dangerous offensive team.
Against UNC though, the Badgers could find mismatch advantages by inverting Potter and Reuvers. Both big men have the ability to shoot from the outside, and the mammoth Heel forwards would much prefer to stay home versus getting pulled to the perimeter.
D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison could also find success against a young UNC perimeter shell. The pair of seniors can both create their own shot and can hit clutch jumpers during crunch time. The idea of a methodical, practiced, experienced Badger offense against a UNC defense that relies mostly on length and athleticism is attractive if you’re looking to back the Badgers.
Key Factor(s): Here’s a macro key factor: experience. We see the stat on every Badger broadcast that Wisconsin’s starting five is older than the Chicago Bulls. Call me old fashioned, but I think that matters in the NCAA Tournament. On the flip side, you have a UNC team that ranks 330th in experience and starts two freshmen in the backcourt.
Wisconsin has to make shots. Scoring inside against the UNC trees is not going to happen. The Badgers have good shooters, but they were a train wreck down the stretch in conference play, evidenced by their 36% overall 3-point clip versus 32.7% mark in Big Ten play.
Final Prediction: I’ve gone back and forth on this game multiple times. On one hand, there is no doubt in my mind UNC will beat the living crap out of Wisconsin on the glass. On the other hand, I trust good guards in March over good bigs, and the Badgers have a major advantage in that regard.
There’s some historical significance here as well. Roy Williams has never lost in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament… he is 29-0… that is absolutely wild. Wisconsin made the Sweet 16 as an 8-seed under Greg Gard back in 2017.
I made Wisconsin a slight favorite. Number-wise I should be on the Badgers. I also think the Committee under-seeded Wisconsin based on its resume. Screw it, I’m backing the Badge.
(5) Villanova vs. (12) Winthrop
Initial Thoughts: How valuable is Collin Gillespie? Apparently extremely valuable. Villanova is 0-2 since losing its star point guard to a season-ending MCL tear and now have to face arguably the best 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Winthrop is everybody’s pick in the famous “5/12” matchup. Don’t let that fact scare you, though, if you’re a big “fade the public” type of person. A lot of times these “obvious” upset picks do quite well, like when Middle Tennessee upended Minnesota back in 2017.
The Eagles are being backed by talking heads for a reason: they are really, really good. Winthrop finished 23-1 this season but admittedly played a rather weak schedule. This matchup against Villanova will be Winthrop’s first game against a Power 6 opponent all season.
Villanova on Offense: Nova’s first game without Gillespie was about as ugly as you can get from an offensive standpoint. The Cats scored just 0.83 PPP against Providence, driven by a 4/18 clip from 3 and 14/23 mark from the FT line. Game 2, however, was much better – Villanova scored 1.13 PPP in a losing effort to Georgetown.
Gillespie is a big deal, but let’s remember this Villanova team is still chock-full of talent. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (JRE) is likely an All-American, sophomore Justin Moore is one of the best young talents in the country, and wings Jermaine Samuels, Caleb Daniels, Cole Swider, and Brandon Slater are all gifted players. Without Gillespie the Cats are averaging just 7 turnovers per game, so the ball handling hasn’t been affected; but, Gillespie’s on-court leadership and “quarterbacking” is hard to quantify.
Villanova’s offense is a gorgeously efficient attack that prioritizes finding clean looks from behind the 3-point arc. The Cats rank 30th in the country in 3PA rate and just 310th in percentage of points scored from 2-point range; Jay Wright, apparently, is a believer in analytics.
In the half-court, Nova spaces the floor with four or five shooters on the floor at one time. Offense is fluid and free-flowing and beautiful to behold. JRE is the focal point, he commands a ton of attention on the block or top of the key, and he’s a willing passer out of double-teams.
JRE could be a real matchup problem for Winthrop. The Eagles have a fantastic big man in former Tennessee Vol DJ Burns, but he is a plodding 6’9” 275-pound force, not a nimble defender on the perimeter. Nova can pull him away from the rim and make it difficult for Pat Kelsey to keep him on the floor. 6’7’ sophomore Chase Claxton is a long forward who can keep up with JRE on the perimeter, but he will get eaten alive in the post.
Winthrop is decent at defending the 3, which is ultimately what will make or break them on this end of the floor. While Burns could be a matchup liability, guys like Chandler Vaudrin, Adonis Arms, Russel Jones, Charles Falden and Kyle Zunic are all plus defenders capable of at least slowing down the relentless Nova motion attack. The Eagles are also the 10th-best defensive rebounding team in the country, so second-chance points will come at a premium.
It will be interesting to see if Winthrop can force Villanova ball handlers into turnovers. I mentioned above the Cats have done well protecting the pill in two games sans Gillespie, but that was against Georgetown and Providence who rank 313th and 294th, respectively, in turnover rate. The Eagles rank 23rd nationally in turnover rate, and while some of that might just be competition, Nova hasn’t faced a perimeter defensive test like this yet without its lead guard.
Winthrop on Offense: Fear not, DJ Burns fans. Even though your hero may struggle defensively against Nova, he will feast upon the soft Wildcat interior when on the court.
This is one of the worst overall defensive teams Jay Wright has had at Villanova and it’s by far the worst interior defensive squad. Nova doesn’t have any shot blockers on its roster and the Cats rank 229th in 2PFG% defense. Eric Dixon is big and JRE is long, but neither can handle Burns in the post, whom Winthrop likes to feed constantly when it plays in the half-court
Burns is so patient with the ball on the block that he seems to make the correct move every time. If Nova sends a double, he has plenty of shooters to whom to kick.
When Burns is off the floor, which is usually more than half the game, Winthrop is a high-octane run-n-gun offense that plays at the 8th fastest pace in the land. The Eagles are most deadly off opponent scores, ranking 5th in the country in percentage of FGA in the first 0-10 seconds following a score (Hoop-Math). They grab the ball out of the basket and try to catch retreating defenders unawares. Winthrop also runs off steals, ranking 15th nationally in percentage of FGA in the first 0-10 seconds following a steal (Hoop-Math). That last stat is why it’s imperative Nova takes care of the rock on offense.
Nova is not a good transition defensive team. The Cats rank 301st in transition opportunities allowed and 333rd in eFG% allowed in transition. Of Nova’s 2020-21 opponents, only St. John’s runs nearly as much as Winthrop, and the Cats split the season series with the Johnnies. In their loss to St. John’s, Villanova turned the ball over 17 times… with Collin Gillespie in the lineup.
Key Factor(s): This is going to be a fun X’s and O’s battle between two great coaches. How will Kelsey utilize Burns, and how will Wright counterpunch? Who on Villanova can match up with the unique Chandler Vaudrin, a 6’7” point guard who ranks 9th in the country in assist rate?
From a gambling perspective, is Gillespie’s absence worth so many points that Nova finds itself just a 6-point favorite to the Big South champion? Some might think that’s an overreaction, especially considering Winthrop hasn’t played anybody near the caliber of Villanova all season long.
Finally, when looking at a potential “Cinderella” upset, you need to consider if the mid-major can compete with the high-major physically. For Winthrop, that is a resounding “YES”. Winthrop has a ton of athleticism and physicality; Adonis Arms is one of the most athletic players in the country, Burns is a MAC truck, and Kyle Zunic is like that annoying kid you hate playing against but love having on your team because he’s constantly diving on the floor, taking charges, and making life a living hell for his opponent.
Final Prediction: Yes, Winthrop is a “public dog”. Yes, a lot of ESPN guys think Winthrop is going to win. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong. I made this game around 7.5, so I agree that 6 points feels a little low. However, I think Winthrop can matchup with this Villanova team, a Villanova team that is reeling without its heart and soul point guard.
(4) Purdue vs. (13) North Texas
Initial Thoughts: Few teams in the country can match the number of quality wins Purdue racked up this season, highlighted by two victories over 2-seed Ohio State. The Boilers played particular well once the calendar flipped to the new year, ending Big Ten play on a 11-3 run. Purdue features one of the best players in the country in forward Trevion Williams, an All-American candidate and classic Boilermaker unstoppable force, as well as one of the best freshmen cores in college basketball.
North Texas denied Rick Stansbury his first NCAA Tournament as coach of Western Kentucky, winning four games in four days to seize the C-USA crown. UNT starts five upperclassmen, boasts a top-45 defense, and features one of the best young coaches in the country in Grant McCasland.
This is only the second time these two schools have ever played and the first time since 1970.
Purdue on Offense: Unsurprisingly, Purdue plays through the post on offense. Per Synergy, the Boilers lead the country in possessions used through post-ups – they take full advantage of their size every chance they get. Look for head coach Matt Painter to isolate Williams on the block early and often; against Ohio State last game, Williams attempted 23 of Purdue’s 36 2PFGA, scored 26 points, and grabbed 14 rebounds. Freshman Zach Edey, a 7’4” monster reminiscent of Isaac Hass, is also a gifted scorer on the block, and Purdue will feed him constantly when he’s on the block as well.
North Texas isn’t a huge team, but it does defend the interior well. Anchored by 6’10” senior Zachary Simmons, the Mean Green rank 33rd in disallowing shot attempts near the rim and 20th in 2PFG% defense. UNT is also no stranger to talented big men. In the C-USA championship game, the Mean Green held Charles Bassey to 13 points on 6 shots; against Loyola, UNT held Cam Krutwig to 12 points on 11 shots; and against West Virginia, UNT held Derek Culver to 10 points on 13 shots and Oscar Tschiebwe to 0 points on 5 shots.
That’s a pretty good track record, but Trevion Williams will be the best big man UNT has faced to date. And though UNT is solid disallowing points in the paint, it does tend to foul at a high clip, which the Boilermakers should take full advantage of with their superior size and athleticism.
Doubling the post and/or sagging back defensively seems like an obvious defensive decision for McCasland, and that could be especially effective if Purdue continues to shoot like it did in Big Ten play. Purdue ranked just 12th in the conference in 3P% with a measly 30.7% clip. Guys like Sasha Stefanovic, Brandon Newman, Mason Gillis, and Isaiah Thompson need to hit outside shots to clear the lane for Williams and Edey to work.
Purdue should find success on the offensive glass. West Virginia snatched 51% of its misses against the Mean Green earlier in the year, the closest opponent comparison UNT has played this season.
North Texas on Offense: North Texas plays almost exclusively in the half-court on offense. McCasland likes to control tempo and slow things down versus running and gunning. The Mean Green run star guard Javion Hamlet off ball screens and feed Simmons in the post. It’s a boring, sometimes stagnant, but overall effective offensive attack.
Hamlet is the conductor of UNT’s offense, and the Mean Green will go as he goes. He was the third-highest used player in C-USA this season and is really the only player on the squad that can consistently create his own shot. That’s not to say Hamlet is devoid of role players. UNT has three other guys in Simmons, James Reese, and Thomas Bell who average in double-figures. Simmons is the primary post scorer, Reese is a knockdown outside shooter, and Bell is a hard-nosed rebounder, defender, and solid 3-point threat.
Purdue’s size poses an issue for UNT, as the Boilers won’t feel the need to help off shooters when Simmons catches in the post. Simmons is a gifted passer out of help situations, and the Mean Green have five shooters on the roster who shoot better than 36% from deep. If Purdue perimeter defenders can stay home on snipers, UNT’s offense could stagnate.
Key Factor(s): The spread is low for good reason. This game is going to play to a very low possession count. Only seven teams in the country play at an overall slower tempo than the Mean Green, hence the 127-point total set by oddsmakers.
North Texas has proven its ability to keep games close against high-major competition, but its also failed to score efficiently. In its non-conference schedule, UNT scored 0.76, 1.02, 0.78, and 0.79 PPP against Arkansas, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Loyola, respectively. Given Purdue’s ability to defend, it’s highly probable UNT scores around 50 points. The key question is if it can give enough resistance to Williams and Edey to prevent Purdue from scoring efficiently.
Final Prediction: I think North Texas keeps this one close, frustrates the Boilers, and makes this game an ugly affair. Williams has an advantage on the block, but UNT is tough and physical in the paint.
The Mean Green are one of the oldest teams in the country, and Purdue is one of the youngest. That’s enough for me to throw a few shekels on McCasland & Co. I’ll also double-dip and take the UNDER as well.
(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) Utah State
Initial Thoughts: Let us give thanks to the basketball gods for blessing us with arguably the best coaching matchup of the first round. Everyone knows Chris Beard of Texas Tech by now but take notice of Utah State’s Craig Smith. He is a rising star in the CBB coaching landscape and a future headliner of Power 6 wish lists.
This game is going to be filled with gritty, old school, physical basketball. Neither team shoots a ton of threes, instead opting to do their damage inside the arc. It’s a matchup between two elite defenses and two elite coaches.
Texas Tech on Offense: Texas Tech’s offense is heavily reliant on off-ball cutting and screening. Beard implements some mover/blocker-esque wrinkles where forwards hunt for the defenders of TTU’s many talented guards and try to plant them with screens. The Raiders also like to space the floor with four shooting / dribble-drive threats around one big man (usually Marcus Santos-Silva) – TTU doesn’t shoot many 3s, but it does have several guards in Mac McClung, Terrence Shannon, Kyler Edwards, and Kevin McCullar who can create their own shots and score 1-on-1.
Talented guards are all well and good, but TTU’s offense has a tendency to stagnate at times. Many an instant this season the Raiders have been forced into late shot clock situations where guys like McClung have been forced to bail out the offense and take their defender in isolation.
McClung can score on anyone, but if a team is consistently relying on tough mid-range jumpers and a “my turn, your turn” style of offense, it isn’t going to be fruitful over a full 40 minutes. TTU uses the 8th highest rate of possessions in isolation (per Synergy) and ranks 36th in percentage of FGA from the mid-range (per Hoop-Math). Against a competent, well-coached defense, this offense could struggle, and in fact has at times throughout the year.
Utah State boasts the 8th best defense in the land per KenPom. The Aggies are highly switchable on the perimeter, tend to pack it in and allow contested 3-point looks, and funnel drivers into the open arms of Neemias Queta, one of the best defensive big men in the country and owner of the 5th best block rate in the land.
Queta is going to be a massive factor against a Red Raider team that gets points by dribble penetration, post-ups, offensive rebounds, and trips to the foul line. It is very difficult to score in the post against Queta, and he’s a luxury to the rest of the USU defense because no help is needed when he’s defending on the block. Queta also has an extremely low foul rate for a big man, which means he challenges shots from drivers effectively without fouling. USU as a team ranks in the top 50 in defensive FT rate. The Aggies are also the 5th best defensive rebounding team in the country; Queta as well as 6’7” do-everything forward Justin Bean control the boards on their defensive end, which is key against a TTU team that crashes the glass relentlessly.
Texas Tech has an advantage on the perimeter on this end. Rollie Worster, Brock Miller, and Marco Anthony simply cannot defend McClung, Shannon, Edwards, etc. in space. But, USU’s interior defense is impregnable. Even if TTU guards get past the first layer of defense near the arc, it will still be very difficult to score on the Aggies.
Utah State on Offense: Scoring against Texas Tech could be a challenge for Utah State. The Aggies play heavily through Queta in the post, ranking 21st nationally in possessions used on post-ups (Synergy). Texas Tech defends the post extremely well, as expected for a pack-line style of defense. Even though Tech isn’t the biggest team in the country, it plays help defense as well as anyone.
To beat TTU, USU cannot simply rely on Queta scoring on the block. Craig Smith does actually implement a beautiful motion offense that emphasizes cutting, it just hasn’t been efficiently carried out this season. USU ranks 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom – it simply doesn’t have the high-end level of offensive talent to score on a consistent basis.
Utah State’s style of offense is more sustainable than Texas Tech’s at least. Instead of isolation, USU relies on catch-and-shoot, passing, and cutting to score. The Aggies rank 17th in assist rate this season and move the ball well on the offensive end.
Turnovers have been a struggle all year for the Aggies, as they don’t really have a reliable true point guard on the roster. Worster and Anthony are more combo-guards and 6’1” freshman Steven Ashworth just isn’t a great option against high-level competition. Utah State needs to take care of the ball against a Red Raider team that ranks 8th in the nation in forcing turnovers. TTU will dig down and double the post all game long and pressure ball handlers heavily when they dribble or catch inside the arc.
Forward Justin Bean could be a real wildcard in this matchup. He’s tough to defend with his ability to score from just about anywhere, and he’s a terrific offensive rebounder. Perhaps the best part of his game, though, is his ability to cut. Bean is scoring 1.515 PPP on cuts this season, good for the 93rd percentile nationally per Synergy.
USU’s greatest advantage on this end will be the offensive glass. The Aggies rank 16th in the country in offensive rebounding rate while the Raiders rank just 254th in defensive rebounding rate. Utah State has a major size advantage, and we’ve seen teams like Baylor, Houston, and Texas crush Texas Tech on the boards this season.
Key Factor(s): coring is going to come at a premium, so this one might just come down to who can shoot the best.
Neither team is going to score easily against the other. Texas Tech’s offensive style is no match for Utah State’s defensive style, and vice versa.
I, for one, am just excited to see the chess match between two of the best coaches in the country.
Final Prediction: In an ugly, physical game I tend to lean towards the dog. At 5 points, Utah State is a great value and has a real shot at pulling the upset and advancing to the Round of 32.
(3) Arkansas vs. (14) Colgate
Initial Thoughts: Hoo boy, this is a fun one. If you’re like Ricky Bobby and you like to go fast, buckle up and feast your eyes on what should be a high-octane, high-scoring affair.
Arkansas and Colgate rank 17th and 25th, respectively in tempo this season, hence the gigantic total of 161.5. We should see plenty of running and gunning in this 3/14 matchup.
The Hogs have been blistering down the stretch. They finished the regular season on an 11-1 run and vaulted up the bracket s curve with impressive win after impressive win.
Colgate ranks 9th in the NET thanks to a quirky COVID schedule that resulted in the Raiders playing against just three opponents in the regular season: Army, Boston U, and Holy Cross. The Raiders were dominant in the Patriot League all season and continued that dominance in the conference tournament. But, without any non-conference games played, it’s very difficult to know just how good this Colgate team actually is.
Arkansas on Offense: Transition is the name of the game for the Razorbacks. Arkansas uses the 44th most possessions in transition this season, per Synergy, and particularly likes to run off the defensive glass, ranking 24th in percentage of FGA in transition 0-10 seconds following a defensive rebound (per Hoop-Math).
Arkansas is a very guard-oriented team. Musselman spaces the floor in the half-court, oftentimes playing 6’7” Indiana transfer Justin Smith at the nominal 5-spot. Heck, even the Hogs’ biggest player on the roster, 7’3” Connor Vanover, is largely a stretch forward. With four even five guys hanging out on the perimeter, all either capable of shooting or scoring off the bounce, it’s no wonder many teams have a difficult time stopping the Arkansas attack.
SPACE!
Colgate has not seen an offense like this all season. In terms of athleticism, skill-level, shooting ability, rebounding – you name it – Arkansas is far superior to every team the Raiders have faced. Which is why capping this game is so difficult. Computer numbers say Colgate is a great team, but even in 2019-20 when the Raiders were nearly as successful, defense wasn’t their strong suit. In games against power competition last season, Colgate lost by 13 (Clemson), 16 (Syracuse), and 29 (Auburn).
Transition metrics say Colgate has been good defending teams on the run, but again the Raiders haven’t played many teams keen on running. Colgate has also been good on the glass, but it is at a major size disadvantage against Arkansas at nearly every position. Arkansas’s wing size is legit, and Colgate really doesn’t have the athleticism or length to match up with it. To boot, despite being just 6’7”, Smith is an excellent rebounder who can do a lot of damage in the paint. Just ask Mizzou, who was utterly destroyed by Smith when Jeremiah Tilmon and Mitchell Smith got in foul trouble.
In summary, Colgate cannot stop Arkansas on this end of the floor. Arkansas could score north of 90 or even 100 points.
Colgate on Offense: This end of the floor is where Colgate needs to make its hay. The Raiders have no hope of stopping nor slowing down the Razorbacks, so they better try to outscore them.
Colgate has talent on its roster. Senior point guard Jordan Burns is one of the best players in the mid-major landscape, and he very much can lead a team in March. Additionally, Colgate is one of the best shooting teams in the country, and that should hold true against any competition. The Raiders as a team are shooting 40% from deep this season and lead the country in PPP on spot-ups. Burns shoots 41.5% from 3, Jack Ferguson shoots 50.7%, and three more guys shoot over 36%.
Like Arkansas, Colgate wants to get out in the open floor. The Raiders, too, push off the glass in transition, ranking 6th nationally in percentage of FGA in transition 0-10 seconds following a defensive rebound (Hoop-Math). In the half-court, Colgate turns into largely a pick-n-roll centric offense where Burns tries to cut up defenses and score or kick deadly spot-up shooters.
Floor spacing, dribble-drive, and penetrate-and-kick are keys to Colgate’s offense, but the Raiders do feed the post a fair amount. 6’11” freshman Jeff Woodward and 6’10” sophomore Keegan Records can both score effectively on the block.
Colgate could find ample opportunity in transition if it can keep Arkansas off the glass. Only seven teams allow more transition opportunities than the Hogs this season (Hoop-Math), but Arkansas only allows 0.905 PPP in these situations, good for the 85th percentile nationally per Synergy.
KenPom ranks Arkansas’s defense as the 14th best in the country. The Razorbacks’s elite length up and down the roster makes driving, shooting, and scoring in the paint a tall task for any team, let alone a Patriot League squad. Moses Moody, Jalen Tate, and Justin Smith are all 6’6”+ wings capable of guarding any position on the floor. 6’1” lead guard JD Notae, one of the clutchest players in the country on the offensive end of the floor, ranked 3rd this season in the SEC in steal rate. He, or other solid defenders Desi Sills and Davonte Davis, should see the lion’s share of time on Burns.
Key Factor(s): For Colgate to win or even cover this game it will need to shoot the crap out of the ball. That can absolutely happen. The Raiders have lit the nets on fire all season and have scored over 90 points four times this year. Shooting against Arkansas’s length will pose a challenge, but Colgate has the shooters to do it.
The main problem for Colgate is it will try to run with Arkansas, which is a bad idea. Arkansas has “blow-out” ability against teams who try to keep pace and run up the number of possessions.
Final Prediction: I can’t see Colgate consistently stopping Arkansas in the open floor, on the glass, or in the half-court. Arkansas is too talented, too athletic, and too big for the Raiders to handle. With a spread under 10 points on a game that could eclipse 80 possessions, I love the favorite in a potential runaway.
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia Tech
Initial Thoughts: The battle of the Mikes! Coach White v. Coach Young square off in a game so equal, even oddsmakers made it a pickem.
With slight apologies to Mike White, this coaching matchup is anything but equal. For my money Mike Young is hands-down the better coach; he gets more out of his talent than White. Usually that would be enough to lean towards VT in a pickem, but there’s concern around the Hokies due to their issues with COVID this season.
VA Tech was impressive from the beginning of the season through January, amassing a 13-3 overall record and 7-2 mark in the ACC. But once the calendar flipped to February, the wheels started falling off. Per Bart Torvik, the Hokies are the 53rd best team in the country since the beginning of February. VT lost to Pitt, barely beat a hobbled Miami team, and then went on a two-week COVID pause. When it came back, it lost by 16 to a hot Georgia Tech team and then obliterated a hopeless Wake Forest squad.
Since February 27th, the Hokies’ only game was their ACC tourney loss to UNC on March 11th. Will VT be game-ready for the Gators on Friday?
Florida on Offense: Tre Mann deserves all the praise in the world for his performance this season. After Keyontae Johnson’s scary collapse against Florida State early in the season, Mann became Florida’s alpha dog and has led the Gators ever since.
The Gator offense revolves around Mann. Florida runs Mann off ball screens and lets him work 1-on-1 in space. Few, if any, guards in the country can truly defend Mann; he ranks in the 86th percentile nationally scoring off ball screens, per Synergy.
Florida also has a reliable post option in Colin Castleton, a Michigan transfer who finally was given the opportunity to break out this season. Castleton should have a significant advantage against the smaller Hokie frontline. VT forward Keve Aluma is an excellent rebounder and good shot-blocker, but he’s allowing 1.128 PPP defending post-ups this season, one of the worst marks in the country.
Now, VA Tech won’t leave Aluma on an island. Young likes to pack it in and make up for his team’s lack of size with several bodies in and around the paint. The Hokies have done well this year limiting clean looks near the rim and forcing opponents to be jump-shooters.
The good news for Florida is Virginia Tech won’t be able to take advantage of the Gators’ shaky ball handling. Mann has been good with the ball, but guys like Tyree Appleby, Anthony Duruji, and Scottie Lewis have had trouble hanging onto the rock. Against full-court pressure this season Florida is among the bottom 10% in the country in points per possession. VA Tech does not pressure in the full-court or half-court whatsoever. The Hokies tend to sit back and allow the offense to come to them.
So, Florida likely gets some looks from behind the arc on Friday. The Gators don’t look to shoot many triples, but they can hit them, especially Mann, Appleby, and Noah Locke. Castleton will still have an advantage on the block, and his presence will likely draw double teams opening up more chances for Mann and the other guards to work in space.
VT had the best defense in ACC play this season, so don’t expect Florida to put up crazy efficiency numbers. The Hokies defend ball screens well, usually fighting over the top versus switching. But, I do think it’s slight advantage Gators on this end of the floor.
Virginia Tech on Offense: Ball movement is king in Mike Young’s half-court focused offense. The Hokies rank among the bottom in the country in plays used via pick-n-roll ball handler and via isolation in the country. Conversely, VA Tech ranks 3rd in the country in plays used catching off screens and 39th via cuts (Synergy). Young’s Hokie teams have been among the nation’s leaders in assist rate the past two seasons.
One of Young’s common actions is the dreaded back screen / down screen combo, a deadly weapon for freeing up shooters off the ball. Watch how UNC’s defender gets frozen under the hoop when he’s forced to make a split decision to help off his man:
These types of actions are what we expect to see from a Mike Young coached team. VT plays smart basketball, makes precise cuts, and moves without the ball as well as any team in the country.
Florida has generally defended cuts and off-ball movement well this season, but the Gators still tend to get lost sometimes defensively. This is a team without any seniors on its roster, and that inexperience could have been a contributing factor in the Gators ranking just 7th in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom).
VA Tech doesn’t have a ton of size to fully take advantage of Florida’s terrible defensive rebounding numbers, but the Hokies should still earn a fair amount of second-chance opportunities. Keve Aluma, Justyn Mutts, and the 6’2” odd-ball Tyrece Radford are excellent rebounder and very physical players. Mutts in particular will be an interesting matchup for the Gators, and I look forward to seeing him do battle with Duruji on the Florida side.
The one thing Florida does well on this end of the floor that could hurt the Hokies, is its ability to defend the 3-ball. The Gators are good at running shooters off the line, and their length and speed on the perimeter is a large reason why teams are shooting just 30.5% against them from distance. VT will need to be patient and work the ball to find open looks against a pesky Gator defense, and I think they will. If Florida is forced to stay down defensively and guard late into the clock, a couple swings of the ball and multiple back, down, and fade screens could knock the Gators out.
Key Factor(s): Can Florida stay disciplined and guard the intricate cutting and screening of VT’s offense?
Will VA Tech be sharp coming off a weird stretch of stopping and starting with only one game played in the past two weeks?
Final Prediction: Like I said at the beginning of this preview, leaning towards good coaching in a matchup that otherwise appears equal can be a profitable strategy. I think Mike Young has his team ready to play with a good game plan to take down the athletic Gators in a tight contest.
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Oral Roberts
Initial Thoughts:
Points! Both Ohio State and Oral Roberts can score the basketball, and neither is terrific on defense relative to the other end of the floor. Combined these two teams are 33-19-1 to the OVER on the season, and oddsmakers have set a high total on this one right around 156 points.
Ohio State on Offense: This is the best Ohio State offense since Thad Matta’s 2011 1-seed squad that featured Jared Sullinger. The Buckeyes rank 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom driven by sticky ball handling and good shooting from everywhere on the floor.
E.J. Liddell is the focal point of the OSU attack, a 6’7” sophomore who can score on the block or step out and hit the 3. Liddell is going to be a matchup nightmare for an Oral Bob team that cannot guard its own shadow. Kevin Obanor is a decent defender in the post but put him in space against a player of Liddell’s skill and versatility and he has zero chance.
OSU is especially potent, however, because of more than just one player. Chris Holtmann’s team fits so perfectly together on this end of the floor – the Buckeyes have clearly defined roles and each player plays his part exceptionally. Liddell is the go-to scorer and post-man, Duane Washington is a deadly spot-up shooter who can bail out the offense late in the clock, CJ Walker is a perfect table setter who doesn’t turn the ball over, and Justice Sueing, Justin Ahrens, and Seth Towns are excellent complementary pieces who can score from all over the floor.
Another important piece to the Buckeyes’ offensive puzzle is Kyle Young, a 6’8” brute who can clean the glass and hit an outside shot. Young ranks 9th in the country in O-rating this season, but unfortunately, he will likely be out of commission for this contest due to a concussion suffered back on March 12th. That’s a crushing blow OSU’s cause to cover, but the Buckeyes should still score with ease against the Eagles.
Liddell likely sees plenty of time at the 5 in Young’s stead, which makes for an intimidating offensive attack. Freshman forward Zed Key, an absolute load inside, should also see time on the block.
ORU ranks 285th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Let’s just say the Golden Eagles don’t win games because they get stops. Against high-major competition this year Oral Roberts has allowed the following:
Ohio State is better (in some cases MUCH better) offensively than every single one of those schools. It’s likely we see OSU put up 90 points or more on Friday
Oral Roberts on Offense: Here’s what’s wild about those games above, and why ORU backers shouldn’t lose all hope quite yet. Despite being unable to stop its high-major competition on defense, the Golden Eagles went 4-1 against the spread in those contests. The reason why? Offense, of course!
Oral Roberts is one of the most fun mid-majors to watch in the country because it can flat-out score. Sophomore guard Max Abmas leads the country in scoring at 24.4 PPG and is flirting with the elusive 50/40/90 shooting percentage split. It doesn’t matter how good an opposing team is, or what conference they come from – nobody is stopping Max Abmas.
ORU is a pick-n-roll offense, ranking among the top 20 in the country in possessions used via the PnR. It’s basically, “set a ball screen for Max and spot up” every time down the floor. The Eagles also shoot a ton of 3s, oftentimes as a result of Abmas kick-outs when defenses collapse. Per KenPom only 21 teams nationally attempt a higher rate of 3s than ORU and only 8 score a higher percentage of points from behind the arc. In addition to Abmas, ORU has two more shooter knocking down over 43% of their triple tries this season. Obanor’s shooting ability, in particular, makes this offense hard to stop, as the Eagles can play 5-out regularly.
Ohio State isn’t fantastic defensively, ranking 79th nationally in adjusted efficiency, and it defends the pick-n-roll at only an average rate. Liddell is pretty mobile, but he and Young have been repeatedly burned off rolls this season, and only Washington can really be called a good perimeter defender. The Buckeyes also allow a fair amount of transition looks and aren’t afraid to run with teams if pushed.
Key Factor(s): Neither team can stop the other from scoring. ORU is no match for Liddell or OSU’s balanced attack, and OSU isn’t great at guarding ball screens. Considering the Eagles nearly every contest this season in the low-to-mid 70s possession-wise this season, the OVER seems like the right play.
For ORU to cover, it simply has to score efficiently, which I think they can do. Abmas is the type of guard March Madness was built for, and he’ll have plenty of casual and hardcore college basketball fans alike rooting for him when he takes the floor on Friday.
Final Prediction: Ohio State advances but Oral Roberts covers the large spread in a game that should clear the 156-point total.
Official 3MW Picks
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