-Jim Root
Key Returners: Ron Harper Jr., Geo Baker, Myles Johnson, Montez Mathis, Caleb McConnell, Jacob Young, Paul Mulcahy
Key Losses: Akwasi Yeboah, Shaq Carter, Peter Kiss (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Cliff Omoruyi, Mawot Mag, Oskar Palmquist, Dean Reiber
Lineup:
Outlook: Although Greg Gard won the Big Ten’s Coach of the Year award, a special additional honor should be reserved for Steve Pikiell, something like “Extraordinary Achievement in the Field of Program-Building” for the four-year process of turning Rutgers into a legitimate NCAA Tournament team – and one that should be expected to earn an at-large bid again this season. Pikiell has cultivated an identity and an attitude of physicality and tenacity in his squad, and his steady rebuilding of the program would have led to the school’s first Big Dance invite since 1991. That’s absolutely worth recognizing.
Before I get too lovey-dovey about Pikiell and his squad, a quick word of caution: returning a ton of players from a team likely destined for an 8- or 9-seed at a school with zero basketball tradition is no guarantee of future success – just ask 2017-18 Northwestern. Nothing is given, and team performance is not inherently linear.
This is not a time for pessimism around Rutgers hoops, though, so I’ll shut up before I’m tarred and feathered by the zealous RAC crowd. If there was a coach and team built to resist the complacency of success, it’s Pikiell and this band of Scarlet Knight brawlers. Rutgers had the country’s 6th-ranked defense last year, per KenPom’s AdjDE, and the swarm of intimidating rim protectors, burly wings, and lanky guards should continue to make opposing offenses miserable.
Building from the inside out, the team’s defensive anchor is center Myles Johnson. He ranked 4th in the Big Ten in block rate and 17th in defensive rebound rate, and his size and interior presence helped the Scarlet Knights post the 13th-lowest defensive 2P%. Not even the massive Trevion Williams could overpower him:
His bash brother inside, Shaq Carter, graduated, but Pikiell went out and nabbed one of the program’s best-ever recruits to fill his spot in Cliff Omoruyi. Omoruyi is a physical marvel that shows terrific timing as a shot-blocker; the Scarlet Knights’ paint defense will remain in excellent hands when he’s on the court.
Positional size and strength are themes throughout the roster, as Pikiell has clearly targeted players who will buy into and execute his borderline-sadistic man-to-man scheme. Ron Harper Jr. emerged as the team’s star last year, and the 6’6, 245-pound forward is a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court thanks to his combination of size, raw strength, and quickness. The on/off numbers from Hoop Lens underscore Harper Jr.’s massive importance to Rutgers on both ends of the floor:
To reiterate those numbers: Rutgers was +16 points per 100 possessions with Harper on the court, but actually became a losing team without him at -1 points per 100. He’ll have a new apprentice to mentor in top-200 freshman Mawot Mag, the next in the line of brawny, multi-positional forwards.
The backcourt offers more stout defenders, as 6’4, 205-pound Montez Mathis continues the “looks like a football player” trend, while 6’4 Geo Baker, 6’6 Paul Mulcahy, and 6’7 Caleb McConnell all have plenty of length.
The disadvantage of Pikiell’s recruiting philosophy has, predictably, been a shaky offensive ceiling (think Mick Cronin’s teams at Cincinnati). Shooting is a severe flaw; Rutgers finished 295th nationally in 3P% and 333rd in FT% and loses arguably its best perimeter weapon in Akwasi Yeboah. Freshman Oskar Palmquist brings a smooth lefty stroke, but it’s unlikely the Swede is ready for the rigors of Pikiell’s defensive demands. Thus, the Scarlet Knights didn’t take many threes (327th in 3PA rate), instead working to attack via drives and relentlessly hammer the offensive glass.
Texas transfer Jacob Young is the team’s most dynamic attacker off the bounce, but his inability to finish sapped his efficiency into dangerous territory (85.4 offensive rating = bad). Baker is a solid offensive weapon and hit some huge shots late in games last year, but his three-point shooting has dropped every season of his career. Mulcahy is an intriguing piece; the wiry sophomore with a throwback headband look has slipperiness and clever passing vision to his game, and he may get more chances to handle the rock in his second season.
As mentioned, the other key under Pikiell has been the glass. The Knights can hurl bodies at the boards to get second shots, with Johnson being one of the very best in the nation at getting his hands on offensive rebounds. Omoruyi will add to that potency, and having centers that can generate extra possessions by themselves is crucial in allowing the rest of the team to get back in transition. Freshman Dean Reiber adds a more versatile offensive option at center, but he may find it hard to earn minutes behind the team’s two behemoths.
Bottom Line: With so many pieces back from Rutgers’ first 20-win team since 2004, optimism abounds in Piscataway. Pikiell has earned the expectations that this season will bring, but the Scarlet Knights do need to sort out their “away from home” troubles if this year is really going to take off. Rutgers went 18-1 at the RAC but just 2-10 anywhere else, and that road record was making the Scarlet Knights’ NCAA candidacy dicey until a huge OT win at Purdue on the regular season’s final Saturday. That last victory should be a rallying point for this year’s team, hopefully providing a launching pad for another 20-win season – and possibly beyond.