-Jim Root
Welcome to a[n early] Christmas edition of the Rankings! Yes, another version should hopefully be coming on Christmas Eve, but sometimes it’s smarter to beat the holiday rush, you know? Haven’t you ever seen Jingle All the Way? Where Sinbad and Arnold Schwarzenegger fight over a toy? No? Well, correct that ASAP.
Anyways, as part of the theme, I’ll be giving each team a holiday gift (highlighted in bold, not underlined in each section) — it could be something they need, it could be something I simply want them to have, or it could be something totally irrelevant. It’s up to Santa Jim!
One team you won’t find here: North Carolina, which has become a shell of itself now that Cole Anthony is out. This might be the first time a team was desperately hoping to find a lump of (healthy) Cole in its stocking…
1. Kansas (Last week: 2)
Isn’t it obvious? I’m giving Kansas the #1 spot in these rankings, an ominous honor that has corrupted every team unlucky enough to earn the designation. Because I missed a week while in Maui, every team ranked #1 here has lost before the next set of rankings published. Yes, Mr. Pomeroy, that is an indictment of my own inability to properly rank teams:
While I don’t wish any ill will on the Jayhawks, I do worry about their longevity at the top, given the looming trip to Philadelphia to take on GQ Jay and his Villanova Wildcats…
2. Gonzaga (4)
For the Zags, I’m being extremely benevolent and giving them a pass on the final 90 seconds of the Arizona game. After building a seemingly insurmountable lead at 81-65 with under two minutes remaining, the Zags apparently were already thinking about the flight home, turning it over multiple times and missing numerous free throws en route to Arizona cutting the lead to 82-80. That near-disaster is hard to forget - seriously, they melted like a cheap candle - but the previous 30 or so minutes were so incredibly impressive that it’s worth giving myself forced amnesia.
As usual, one play in particular really hooked me in this game, and it came later in the second half as the Bulldogs started to really blow it open. Corey Kispert missed a three, and after a scramble, the ball ended up in Filip Petrusev’s hands on the block. I’ve long said that my favorite play in basketball is the extra pass, and the Zags displayed that beautifully in a sequence that ended with an Admon Gilder dagger. It began here, with me yelling at my TV for Petrusev to “skip it!!” to the open Ryan Woolridge (just off screen to the right):
From that point, the only defender left on the weak side rotated up off the corner, and I reflexively yelped “one more!” at Woolridge:
To my great pleasure, he made the pass, and Gilder put the finishing touches on this mini basketball Picasso:
Tic-tac-toe — hoops can be wonderful, folks (please note: the Zags won the race to 69 on this play). I’m also going to give myself more Zags basketball for Christmas, aka watching them play [and probably dismantle] UNC on Wednesday night.
3. Ohio St. (1)
Before I dig in my bag of goodies for the Buckeyes, I need to come clean on something that is probably already known: I grew up a Wisconsin fan, and the team I hated most as a miscreant youth was THE Ohio State University. It’s always easiest to hate teams when they’re good, and the Buckeyes constantly were just that, whether it was in basketball or football. I had no problem despising players like Terrence Dials and Matt Sylvester, and when Aaron Craft came along, I immediately understood how everyone now feels while watching Brad Davison.
I say that to say this: I’m having a hard time finding anything to dislike about this Buckeyes team. They play smart, they work their tails off on the defensive end, and Chris Holtmann is on the sideline smoothly directing it all. So I’m giving them Andrew Dakich back for the year and mandating that Holtmann plays him at least 10 minutes per game, because nothing will resurrect my dislike for the program than seeing the (admittedly useful) Dakich scurrying around the floor while his proud papa drools on the microphone. Welcome back, Andrew.
4. Louisville (3)
To the Cardinals, I give consistent point guard play. Unfortunately, it’s not at all clear how that will come about, given that the Cards can’t seem to get even acceptable play from any of their options right now. The trio of Darius Perry, Lamarr “Fresh” Kimble, and David Johnson simply haven’t been producing in the way the team needs:
Offensive rating is by no means a be-all, end-all measurement, but it definitely captures how inefficient the group has been offensively for a sustained period of time.
A few weeks back in this space, I wrote about how well Perry was playing, but he has turned into the proverbial pumpkin since then — perhaps not coincidentally, right as the schedule stiffened. I was a vocal detractor of Kimble’s in the offseason; even when healthy at St. Joseph’s, which was rare, he wasn’t really that great, and he has struggled to integrate into Chris Mack’s system.
The true upside lies with Mr. Johnson, who is just getting into the swing of things following an injury to start the year. The 6’5, 210-pound combo guard oozes upside, especially on the defensive end, and if he can seize the primary creator role as the year wears on, that probably constitutes the highest-ceiling scenario for the Cardinals.
5. Duke (5)
For the Blue Devils, I’m thinking I should get them a star post player – you know, a Top 10-caliber guy inside who can score at will against single coverage, dominate the glass on both ends of the court, protect the rim, and generally serve as an offensive fulcrum in the half court for a team that is still figuring out its identity on that end. Wouldn’t it be nice if Duke had such a star inside?
Wait – they already do? Wow, you’re telling me Vernon Carey is 2nd in kPOY standings at this point? And that he’s been a world-ender in the paint with man-sized moves like this:
Oh, but also a little sprinkle of this:
Honestly, that’s stunning – no one could have foreseen Carey playing to such an elite level. Diamond in the rough for the Dukies.
6. Baylor (7)
The Bears get the first health-related gift of the year: restoring Tristan Clark to his early 2018-19 level of play. Clark was absolutely burying opponents through the first 14 games of last season, shooting an obnoxious 75.5% from inside the arc and swatting a massive 9.6% of opposing shot attempts.
More specifically, Clark was an animal on the block. On 48 post up opportunities, Clark tallied 67 points (1.396 points per possession), ranking him first in the entire country in post up efficiency for players with a minimum of 40 possessions, beating out some scrub named Zion Williamson. Clark’s presence fundamentally changed how defenses had to defend the Bears, because he could score one-on-one against basically any player thrown at him with his combination of superhuman strength and delicate touch.
However, Clark has been a shell of himself while working back from last year’s season-ending knee injury, and he has sat out two of the Bears’ last three contests entirely. Baylor is plenty scary without him, especially since Freddie Gillespie has gleefully taken up the mantle of “Lord of the Lane” in his absence, but Gillespie is nowhere near the offensive threat that a fully healthy Clark is. That means the best version of the Bears may still be yet to come, a terrifying thought considering everything they’ve already accomplished.
7. Kentucky (8)
Big Blue Nation will be getting something it has desperately needed for years now: some real, legitimate three-point shooting threats. As the chart below shows, a precious few teams in the country can match Kentucky’s combination of low three-point volume and erratic futility from beyond the arc:
To put it more neatly: Kentucky is getting the 4th-fewest points in the country via the three-pointer.
Nate Sestina and Johnny Juzang entered with reputations as dangerous floor spacers, but Sestina was just 3/13 (23.1%) prior to hurting his hand, and Juzang has been a hair worse at just 2/13 (15.4%). John Calipari gave Juzang the start against Fairleigh Dickinson on 12/7, likely hoping to spark the young wing’s offensive arsenal, but the experiment clearly failed: Juzang played only four minutes against Georgia Tech this past Saturday, even though the Wildcats desperately needed shooting against the Yellow Jackets’ 1-3-1 zone.
8. Oregon (11)
Real Santa is giving Oregon a shiny new N’Faly Dante for Christmas, so I really have to step my game up here. I feel like a divorced parent competing to give the best gift to a child (now that I mention it – want to buy my flights to the Final Four, Mom?).
Since the North Pole Mr. Claus has a shot-blocker covered, I would give the Ducks a shooter in the frontcourt. Payton Pritchard can stretch defenses, and Anthony Mathis has a love-at-first-sight jumper:
But no one in the Ducks’ group of forwards is a true threat to space the floor. C.J. Walker has made 60% of his ten attempts from deep this year, but that’s a tiny sample, and it’s clearly not a big part of his game given that he’s only taking one per game. Shakur Juiston, meanwhile, is 0/14 from distance, so I think we can safely say he’s not scaring defenses. If any of the Duck forwards could pull opposing bigs away from the rim, the offense might go supernova — it’s already 7th in KenPom’s AdjOE rankings.
9. Michigan (6)
It may seem lazy, but I’m giving Michigan something they technically already have: the Franz Wagner from the Oregon game. After a bunch of tentative, sloppy offensive performances (an 18-point game against Iowa’s cardboard cutout “defense” notwithstanding), Wagner exploded against an excellent Oregon team, posting 21 points on 8/13 shooting. Other players (Eli Brooks, David DeJulius, Isaiah Livers) have provided a surprising amount of scoring pop, but none of those three have the versatile upside that the 6’9, 205-pound Wagner possesses.
Wagner was poised and aggressive against the Ducks (especially after halftime), displaying his shooting range and a physical driving capability he had yet to really demonstrate:
The early season injury clearly hurt his ability to find his optimal offensive role, but the clutch shots he hit on Saturday should help solidify his confidence and allow him to emerge into the bona fide wing scorer the Wolverines thought they were getting when he committed this offseason.
10. Dayton (10)
I’m not sure I want to give Dayton anything at this point – what else do they need? The Flyers have been nothing short of phenomenal at this point in the year, however you want to measure it: they’ve raised their KenPom ranking from 55 to 14; they’ve gone 6-3 ATS (with an average cover margin of +7.7); and they’re 8-1 overall while accumulating blowout wins away from home over St. Mary’s, Georgia, and Virginia Tech. So I guess I’ll give the Flyers season-long endurance to allow them to maintain this level of play for the duration of the year.
There’s always talk about a team “peaking too early,” and I have no doubt Dayton will have some lackluster efforts during the doldrums of conference play in early February. But if they can return to the form they’ve showed this year against top-shelf competition – including the performance in a losing effort against Kansas in Maui – then Dayton has every piece necessary to be a second weekend NCAA Tournament team (and possibly more).
11. Virginia (9)
Ideally, I would give Virginia three NBA-caliber players capable of scoring the basketball and boosting a lethargic offense, but it appears that I’m a year too late for that. So instead, I’m just going to make it a healthy Braxton Key, who is currently in the midst of recovering from wrist surgery (and he may even return in the Cavs’ next contest on Wednesday vs. Stony Brook). Key is by no means an offensive star, but he’s a perfect fit in Tony Bennett’s defensive scheme and has the flexibility to play on the wing or as a big. He inarguably makes Virginia better, and he’s one of only two UVA rotation players with an offensive rating over 100:
It’s hard to consistently beat good teams with such an anemic attack, but Key’s return should provide a boost, and the continued integration of Morsell, Stattman, and Woldemort (aka Woldetensae) will hopefully elevate their performances from “heinously terrible” to something resembling average.
12. Butler (12)
I had a hard time with this one, because honestly, Butler has been so good that they don’t really demand anything. I debated giving them a long-armed, bouncy shot-blocker in the frontcourt, but a big man gambling for blocks and conceding weakside rebounds might undermine the Bulldogs’ exemplary work on the defensive glass.
Ultimately, I settled on taking something away: Sean McDermott’s conscience. The hyper-efficient perimeter sniper ranks 3rd in the entire country in offensive rating thanks to his Bob Lee Swagger-esque accuracy from distance (that’s a Shooter reference, for everyone other than me), but he ranks 6th on his own team in percentage of shots taken while on the court. Obviously, some of that efficiency is a direct result of his ultra-judicious shot selection, but I’m okay with his percentages dropping slightly, because I’m confident he’ll make more than enough of these to make it worth it:
Next 10, in order: Auburn, Maryland, Villanova, San Diego St., Memphis, Michigan St., Wichita St., Arizona, West Virginia, Florida St.
The Mid-Major Five
1. Liberty
The Flames edged Vanderbilt in Nashville for their first win against a KenPom top 140 opponent (baby steps!), and they now find themselves in the enviable position of 19th in the new NET rankings. If Liberty trounces its league foes the way it has done to non-conference opponents, it can maintain such a lofty positioning, but I’m still giving Liberty a one-loss pass in the ASUN. Sure, the Flames will likely be favored in every conference game, but that doesn’t mean they should go undefeated; hell, KenPom only gives them a 6.7% chance of doing just that. So when they drop a random game to Jacksonville on the road because the Dolphins stunningly bury 15 triples, let’s all agree to not treat it like an atomic bomb to the Flames’ postseason resume.
2. Northern Iowa
Honestly, the Purple Panthers probably deserved a spot in these rankings before this week; after all, they had beaten South Carolina on a neutral court and barely lost to West Virginia following a late collapse (and were undefeated besides that stumble). But after winning at Colorado and (an admittedly depleted) Grand Canyon in the span of three nights last week, I could no longer shove my head in the sand and ignore the feisty bunch from Cedar Falls.
Under Ben Jacobson, UNI has once again found success the way it always has: a physical, mistake-free defense that forces opponents to take tough shots, while launching a barrage of three-pointers with a four-out offense around a single interior presence. Austin Phyfe is that big man, a dominant offensive rebounder who finishes everything he touches in the paint (67.3% from the field), while Trae Berhow, Isaiah Brown, and Spencer Haldeman space the floor around offensive engine A.J. Green.
I’d love to be able to bequeath one more dynamic athlete to the Panthers; UNI ranks 343rd nationally in block rate and 344th in steal rate, demonstrating just how reliant they are on the scheme to get stops. To put it in terms Panther fans will understand: there’s no Jeremy Morgan-level defender here, and someone that could be that disruptive defensively could really juice the offensive efficiency with a couple of easy baskets per game.
3. Yale
The Bulldogs are in the midst of a five-game road stretch that wraps up their 2019 schedule; after that, it’s 17 days off of Division I competition until Ivy League play starts (apologies for the shade, Johnson & Wales University, whom Yale plays on 12/12). This year-end road trip concludes with dates at Clemson (12/22) and UNC (12/30), and the Cole Anthony injury has suddenly presented a real opportunity for stacking two consecutive ACC road wins on top of a resume that already features a win over Vermont and zero remotely bad losses.
So the gift I give is not directly to Yale, but to the world: the possibility of a two-bid Ivy is back in business! Win both of those games, go 13-1 in the Ivy League, lose at Harvard in the Ivy Madness final – it’s not that farfetched. The NCAA Tournament needs two Ivy squads!
4. UNC Greensboro
No question about it: the Spartans get half-court shot insurance. It seems brutally unfair any time a team loses on a prayer at the buzzer, but for it to happen to one team twice in a single season? That’s a conspiracy.
UNCG was #2 on this list last week, so I’m clearly not knocking UNCG much for losing at home to NC State. I also can’t bring myself to post the clip of either game-winner in here out of respect for fragile Spartan fans’ psyches.
5. Furman
Furman maintains its spot in the rankings following an extremely impressive romp over Winthrop on Saturday; the final seven-point margin masks how dominant the Paladins were, leading by 15+ for the vast majority of the second half before a late Eagles surge cut the margin (and stole the cover). That game saw the start of the gift I offer Furman: the return of the Paladins’ starting guards’ shooting strokes. Jordan Lyons and Alex Hunter shot 34.7% and 37.1%, respectively, from deep last year on a combined 14.0 attempts per game; this year, those numbers have fallen to 27.8% for Lyons and 32.9% for Hunter on a combined 13.6 attempts per game.
Part of the reason for that decrease is that Matt Rafferty is no longer around to draw attention and generate open shots for the two sub-6’0 guards; indeed, both have incrementally larger burdens in terms of offensive creation. But it’s also partially just randomness and bad luck, and if the two were shooting as well as they did last year, Furman would likely hold two SEC road wins to go along with a 12-1 record. The pair went 7/25 combined at Alabama and 4/14 at Auburn, both of which were eminently winnable games.