-Jim Root
The Ranks return from a Maui-induced hiatus, as I was glued to press row watching 12+ hours of hoops – I will apologize to no one.
Feast Week has come and gone, and hopefully everyone reading this fattened up as much as possible on the seemingly endless buffet of games. We continue to have absolutely no idea who – if anyone – is Actually Good in the college basketball world, and that’s okay! Teams are still figuring themselves out, and the unpredictability of it all means we get to laugh at Kentucky and Duke when they lose at home as 20+ point favorites. That doesn’t happen often, folks, so let’s enjoy it while we can…
1. Louisville (rank two weeks ago: 2)
Amid all the hullaballoo of “the year of parity” and number one teams losing outright as 25-point (or more) home favorites, the Louisville buzzsaw has swiftly cut through everything in its path, largely uninterrupted save for some eyebrow-raising sluggishness against USC Upstate (down 43-40 with 14 minutes left before winning by 26). The Cardinals are only now just getting healthy, too, as Malik Williams and David Johnson have each gotten back on the court after opening the year dealing with injuries. Jordan Nwora sits atop the “kPOY” standings (KenPom’s Player of the Year) thanks to his absurd blend of efficiency and usage, and the Cardinals have certainly earned the top spot in the rankings thus far.
It is worth noting that Louisville has played the 338th-toughest schedule, per KenPom. The Cardinals haven’t had their own Evansville or SFA moment, which obviously matters, but things stiffen up quite a bit in December, starting with a delightful test tonight against sudden title contender Michigan and culimating in the annual Governors’ Cup game in Lexington after Christmas.
2. Kansas (6)
This Kansas team was built around the inside-out duo of Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, with both players having legitimate All-American hopes at the season’s outset. That tandem has never been more dominant than they were against Dayton in the Maui Invitational title game. Coach Bill Self even admitted as much in the postgame press conference, saying that was the best two players had performed on the same day in their KU tenures (in fairness, Dotson’s tenure isn’t very long). The duo, affectionately referred to as “Dot” and “Doke” by teammates and coaches, shredded the stout Flyer defense with devastating efficiency, with Dotson displaying his blinding speed:
And Azubuike showing off impressive footwork that belies his immense size:
Self went to those two repeatedly down the stretch, and they delivered over and over again, even as Dayton threw haymakers of its own on the other end. The wing production still could use some help beyond Ochai Agbaji, but if these two stars are playing well at the same time, the Jayhawks are a top five team.
3. Ohio St. (9)
The Buckeyes currently sit atop the nation in margin of victory, as Ohio State has ruthlessly destroyed all of the lighter competition that has ventured into Value City Arena – you know, the Stetsons, Morgan States, and Villanovas of the world. And for teams with a “good win,” they’re far above the pack:
As a result, they’re also 6-1 against the spread, with the only ATS loss coming against the mighty River Hawks of UMass Lowell, who caught a sleepy Buckeye team on the heels of an exhausting win over in-state rival Cincinnati.
Chris Holtmann has built this juggernaut on the nation’s best defense, non-Virginia division. Just look at the Buckeyes’ Synergy profile and admire how elite they’ve been in transition and against the pick-and-roll, completely shutting down two offensive staples:
4. Michigan (NR)
Get the hell out of the way, everybody, because the Juwan Howard Freight Train is coming through fast! Michigan steamrolled the formidable Atlantis bracket, a field that included four top 15 squads – two of whom the Wolverines beat like a drum. Put it this way: the Wolverines basketball team treated the rest of the Atlantis field like Ohio State’s football team treats Michigan every year (sorry).
What most impressed me about Michigan was the development of the supporting cast around Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske. Isaiah Livers, Eli Brooks, David DeJulius, Colin Castleton – pick a name, and he got significantly better year-over-year:
Even Simpson and Teske, the team’s two senior pillars, have made clear and obvious strides: Simpson can now bury a three off the dribble when opponents go under ball screens and possesses even better court vision, and Teske somehow looks even more threatening as a roll man and destroyer of worlds on the defensive end.
I’ll throw a little bit of water on the inferno, though: the Wolverines lit up an Iowa State defense that would struggle to guard Michigan Tech (my good friend played there!), they dismantled an extremely young UNC team that desperately needs help on the wing (more on that at #7), and then caught a beat up Gonzaga team coming off an overtime war against Oregon. Michigan looked like a complete team already, and while that’s clearly a compliment, I do have some questions about how much higher the Wolverines’ level can get come March – when all of the younger teams are significantly farther along the development curve. Of course, Michigan may already be good enough to render any questions about upside irrelevant, so take my concerns with a grain of salt.
5. Virginia (7)
For my own entertainment, I went back and re-watched all 26 points Maine scored against Virginia last Wednesday - that’s right, all TEN scoring possessions! Here’s a chart of those plays:
A couple notes:
The first basket was scored with 15:46 remaining in the first half.
The last basket was scored with 8:41 remaining in the game. That means Maine only scored over a 27 minute segment within the game (and managed just 26 points in that span).
The final 8:41 consisted of a BLISTERING 7-0 run from Virginia.
Zero of the ten scoring possessions resulted from the same *type* of play/action/defensive lapse. The Cavs’ defense is actively learning as the game progresses, which makes it even more terrifying.
Yes, a 46-26 game is totally absurd, and yes, I totally loved it. It’s all part of Tony Bennett’s grand plan to eventually win a game 2-0, sending the “college basketball sucks!” crowd into a frenzied rage as he smiles calmly at the postgame press conference.
6. Gonzaga (10)
The Zags were a MASH unit during the Battle 4 Atlantis, particularly at the end of the Southern Miss game, when Ryan Woolridge, Admon Gilder, and Anton Watson had all exited (and Killian Tillie was already resting that game). That wore on the Bulldogs as the tournament went on, ultimately getting shellacked by a very good Michigan squad.
Gonzaga had destroyed pretty much every opponent to that point in the paint and on the boards. The Zags’ monstrous frontcourt finally met its match in the form of Jon Teske, though, as Michigan’s paint protector made mincemeat of the previously dominant Zags.
Filip Petrusev, one of the view Bulldogs not showing up on any injury reports, has been one of the country’s true breakout stars. The sophomore is on the brink of KenPom’s kPOY Top 10 (I believe he was in the group prior to the Michigan game), but he had no hope against the physical, experienced Teske:
Petrusev ended up 0/5 on post ups in the game, all of which were challenged by Teske.
Another question I have for anyone reading: when did Petrusev become a complete non-shooter, to the point that Michigan was actively avoiding going near him on the perimeter?
I distinctly remember a freshman Petrusev confidently hitting a triple against Duke in the 2018 Maui Invitational Championship instant classic, and he looked smooth connecting on his first of this season against Michigan. I’m legitimately baffled on whether or not Petrusev can shoot.
7. North Carolina (4)
You know the special kind of cotton mouth you get right away in the morning when you’re deathly hungover? The kind that feels like your throat is the surface of a planet deep in the vacuum of space, where moisture can’t exist? Well, that’s UNC’s offense as it desperately searches for wing production. Cole Anthony has been Cole Anthony, and the big man duo of Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot pulverized Alabama and Oregon in the Bahamas, but basically everyone else has been a disaster.
Specifically, Charleston Southern grad transfer Christian Keeling has been a black hole of suck this year, shooting 32.1% from the field and 21.1% from deep while having more than double the number of turnovers (14) as assists (6) en route to a ghastly 70.5 offensive rating. When I watch him, he looks completely devoid of confidence and unsure of his role. Perhaps the most telling stat is his utter inability to get to the free throw line: at CSU, Keeling averaged around five free throws per game, attacking the rim with abandon to set up his jumper. For UNC, he’s attempted three free throws total in seven games, and he may not find his confidence until he gets some easy, unguarded points at the stripe.
Keeling’s struggles have been magnified by injuries throughout the roster: Brandon Robinson missed the first four games, freshmen Jeremiah Francis and Anthony Harris have yet to play a minute, and Leaky Black left the Oregon game with a sprained foot. Roy Williams needs to give his new guard a confidence-building smack in the hindparts ASAP (or put Anthony Harris in a bacta tank), or the Tar Heels offense will succumb to wing dehydration against quality opponents.
8. Michigan St. (3)
The Spartans’ game of “Wheel of Power Forwards” continues, as Tom Izzo is still searching for the right answer(s) up front alongside Xavier Tillman. Malik Hall’s explosion at Seton Hall seemed like a solid omen, but it turns out he isn’t going to make every single shot in all of his games, and he’s still a freshman being asked to defend at an elite level in Izzo’s disciplined system. Marcus Bingham and Thomas Kithier have each started games up front, and Hall and Julius Marble have been sprinkled into the rotation quite a bit, but each one has his own individual shortcomings. Against UCLA, Tom Izzo went all “Daenarys Stormborn” and broke the wheel, going with a “four-out” lineup for a quick stretch that could see more frequent usage in the future:
Playing three of Aaron Henry, Gabe Brown, Kyle Ahrens, and Rocket Watts alongside the team’s two cornerstones should, in theory, make Cassius Winston even more deadly: greater spacing on the floor with three other shooters, granting him more room to wiggle around with his funky change-of-pace game and opportunities to wrong foot scrambling defenders. Still, it’s far outside Izzo’s DNA to lean into this kind of lineup, even though something similar has worked for two-big devotees like Bill Self and Roy Williams in recent years.
9. Maryland (13)
I’ve been consistently low on the Terps through the preseason, and although they were undeniably impressive as they demolished Marquette on Sunday, I’m just not quite ready to vault them into the top five yet – a tournament run through Temple, Harvard, and the aforementioned Golden Eagles is not quite a murderers’ row. That can change rather quickly given the next four games on the slate: Notre Dame and Illinois at home, Penn State and Seton Hall on the road, all before Christmas. Any Terp fans fretting about this ranking need only wait a couple weeks: they’ll either earn something much better, or prove it correct.
Of course, Anthony Cowan’s progression is the great equalizer. He’s been nothing short of sensational this year, boosting his shooting numbers, getting to the line more frequently, and cutting down his turnovers. If he maintains this against the elite competition on the horizon, he’ll be in the All-American conversation while leading his team to the top five of rankings that really matter (AP Poll shade).
10. Duke (1)
The low-hanging fruit here would be to pick on Duke for losing as a 28-point favorite to Stephen F. Austin, but Mark Titus is already doing those jokes far better than I could.
So instead, let’s take a quick look at what the loss of Cassius Stanley will mean. At first glance, the on/off numbers look completely fine – neither the offense nor the defense has changed based on Stanley’s presence:
But digging in a little more, the Devils’ offense will almost certainly struggle. Duke gets to the free throw line at a significantly lower rate with Stanley’s dynamic athleticism off the court, and the 40.4% three-point shooting is unsustainable for this team, too, unless Joey Baker’s renaissance is real and Jack White and Alex O’Connell stop having an “ugliest brick” competition. The Blue Devils will need to win with defense, something that seems unfathomable after Stephen F. Austin served them a juicy, medium rare 85 Burger in Cameron Indoor (come on, I couldn’t not bring it up).
11. Kentucky (5)
Bucknell transfer Nate Sestina is out for multiple weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a fractured left wrist, and the Wildcats are now dangerously thin in the paint. Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery have each dealt with their own ailments this year, as well (Montgomery missed three games himself), and John Calipari was unable to bring in any true bigs in this freshman class. That means the Wildcats will play smaller with Keion Brooks playing plenty of power forward, removing the inherent size/athleticism advantage Kentucky traditionally has every single night.
Wait a second. What the hell did I just write?
Calipari’s collection of 5-star recruits is thin on the frontline because a Bucknell transfer is hurt? What in the world is going on? Kentucky has been largely unable to blow out inferior teams at home (much to the chagrin of our consensus selections), and this team currently has a distinct air of vulnerability that would have sounded crazy after the Wildcats toppled #1 Michigan State on the season’s opening night.
12. Baylor (17)
The battle for the illustrious Weave title of the “All-Weight Room Team” – aka the most ripped squad in the country, which should be named after the EC Matthews/Jared Terrell/Hassan Martin Rhode Island squad – is a fierce one, and although Baylor took a major hit to its candidacy when Mario Kegler left the team, the Bears are still definitely in the running thanks to Mark Vital, Tristan Clark, Flo Thamba, and even Davion Mitchell. The Bears even have a former football player, walk-on guard Obim Okeke, whose 6’0, 225-pound frame certainly doesn’t hurt.
Other candidates this season include USC (mostly due to Onyeka Okongwu and Isaiah Mobley, but transfers Daniel Utomi and Quinton Adlesh have gotten a few reps in, too), Kansas (David McCormack is terrifying, and even Devon Dotson is pretty stout), Auburn (ditto Austin Wiley, and Isaac Okoro is a freak), and West Virginia (do you need anything more than Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe?). Please, please alert me if I’m missing an obvious nominee.
Next 10, in order: Arizona (11th last time, but I felt they got leapfrogged, despite winning the Wooden Legacy), Auburn, Dayton, Florida St., Oregon, Butler, Oklahoma St., Seton Hall, San Diego St., DePaul (?!?!)
The Mid-Major Five
1. East Tennessee State
Two weeks ago, mighty Evansville held this spot after taking Rupp Arena by storm. The Purple Aces then lost to SMU, East Carolina, and George Washington in succession, plus barely squeaked by Morgan State in triple overtime, so let’s hope this spot isn’t the Roots Rankings version of the Defense Against the Dark Arts position.
The Bucs entered the year with plenty of hype, and they’ve certainly done nothing to quell that excitement. They have no quality wins, but the only loss is a 12-point battle at Kansas. Any discussions of an at-large bid hinge entirely on the 12/18 road test at LSU, though; not even an incredibly strong SoCon will be enough to get them over the hump without that game (just ask 2018-19 UNC Greensboro!).
2. Liberty
The Flames went 29-7 and won an NCAA Tournament game last year, returned five of their top six players, and are now 9-0 this season. And yet, I cannot rank them #1 in the “Mid-Major Five,” because the Flames have played a schedule softer than the brand new Brooklinen™ sheets (sponsor us!!!) I got for my Vegas bedroom. Seriously – the Flames’ best win is either Radford at home, @ East Carolina, or over Rice on a neutral floor. Any of those games knocking your Bombas™ socks off? They face off with one top 100 team the entire season, and although KenPom only gives them a 5.4% chance at it, 30-0 is definitely in the realm of possibility.
Note: coincedentally, that one Top 100 game is LSU, much like ETSU. The Tigers could be major contributors to the Mid-Major At-Large GoFundMe if they go down twice at home in Baton Rouge.
3. UTEP
Speaking of teams that have played awful schedules: your UTEP Miners, ladies and gentlemen! Of course, it’s not so much that the schedule has been bad, per se – they’ve beaten both New Mexico and New Mexico State – it’s more that the schedule hasn’t really existed at all. The Miners have played just two Division I games so far (with a third coming tonight, a rematch with archrival NMSU), instead choosing to thrash three overmatched non-Division I teams while the bevy of transfers learned to play together.
4. Delaware
Okay fine, #4 and #5 of this list are more “teams I want to talk about” than the teams I think are the “best” or “most deserving” mid-majors, but whatever – Delaware is 9-0 with five wins away from the Bob Carpenter Center, so leave me alone and let me deliver some praise to my guy Martin Inglesby!
UAB transfer Nate Darling is doing what UAB transfers do, which is to say, dominate after leaving Birmingham, and Delaware’s starting five has been utterly absurd when sharing the court:
Yes, you’re doing the math correctly: that’s +40 points per 100 possessions. Of course, this team really has no depth (352nd in bench minutes), so the Hens will likely have a rough patch at some point when nagging injuries crop up. But if they’re healthy when March rolls around and rotations tighten up, watch out.
5. Stephen F. Austin
Like I said, I don’t necessarily think the Lumberjacks are the 5th-best mid-major in the country. But I do think they’re damn good, and they’re 6-1 with a win at Duke and only loss at Rutgers. That would rank any high-major team in the top 20, so it absolutely warrants mention here!
Nearly as impressive as the win at Cameron Indoor was following it up with a 19-point trouncing of Arkansas State on the road, an outstanding encore for a team that had been getting plenty of hot air blown up its you-know-what. Finally healthy under Kyle Keller, the former Billy Kennedy assistant has SFA back on the trajectory of the Danny Kaspar/Brad Underwood days. I’ll leave you with this: as of now, Stephen F. Austin has, by far, the best NCAA Tournament resume of any true mid-major, so I formally propose we get get #LumberAtLarge trending.