-Jim Root
1. Kansas
The Jayhawks’ switch to a middle ball screen offense worked like a charm against Baylor, as the Bears were unprepared for such a sweeping adjustment to the Kansas attack. It allowed Udoka Azubuike to get rim run after rim run straight down the center of the lane, and with skilled slashers in Devon Dotson and Marcus Garrett handling the rock, the defense couldn’t abandon the ball-handler, either.
Plus, the concept of “tagging the roller” takes on a new meaning when that roller is a 7’0, 270-pound behemoth like Big Doke:
Part of the beauty of this particular set is the movement on the weak side, confusing the Bears on who the tagger should be. Jared Butler (top of the clip) hesitates for just a split second, and by that time, the monstrous Nigerian is already thundering unencumbered to the front of the rim.
Azubuike has been brilliant all around this year: he has been the anchor of the country’s best defense, and his improved footwork on the block has made him much more than a lob threat offensively, as well. He’s a very real First Team All-American candidate — and possibly the National Player of the Year, too.
2. Baylor
Despite the loss to Kansas, the Bears reside safely in the #2 slot of these rankings (and in the bracket world); I actually think I would have held them here even if the Zags and/or Aztecs had not also stumbled over the weekend. Baylor is still phenomenal, and they easily wiped the floor with Kansas State on Tuesday night to hush any concerns over a “hangover” effect.
Now, to more important things: Mark Vital needs to be the next NFL tight end out of the college basketball ranks. For my own entertainment (and hopefully yours, too), I made this handy graphic to see how he lined up against players who successfully made that jump in the past:
(Mo Alie-Cox’s single-digit defensive rebound rate is one of the single most confusing statistics on KenPom.com)
Okay, maybe he’s a little smallish for the NFL – but that is a projectable frame!! And come on, you can’t picture this guy catching touchdowns on Sundays??
3. Gonzaga
A friend of mine alerted to this interesting phenomenon in Gonzaga’s schedule: the Zags have had perhaps the easiest schedule in the country in terms of facing defensive pressure. Using KenPom’s Opponent Tracker feature, here are their highest-ranked opponents in terms of defensive turnover rate:
So to recap that chart, Gonzaga’s most pressure-heavy foes have been two SWAC teams (lol), a Texas A&M team that was completely clueless in the non-conference season, Arizona (against whom Gonzaga nearly collapsed in epic fashion in the final minute), and Pepperdine (who nearly won at Gonzaga while down a key player). This isn’t necessarily a flaw, per se, but it would certainly give me pause should the Zags meet someone like Florida State, West Virginia, Baylor, or even a lower seed like UNC Greensboro or East Tennessee State. Reminder: Gonzaga’s primary ball-handler was an inefficient starter at North Texas just one year ago.
4. San Diego State
The Aztecs’ ongoing flirtation with the #2 seed in the West region heated up over the weekend with a home loss to UNLV, opening the door a little wider for that possibility. San Diego State is walking a fine line to woo such a coveted prize; lose to the wrong team or drop too far in the NET, and they could end up falling further on the S-Curve than intended; just like any budding relationship, the Aztecs need to avoid coming on too strong.
As of now, the connection is still just a playful flirtation. Things almost went to a new level with a home loss to Colorado State, but the Aztecs got cold feet late and ultimately decided not to approach their crush. Can they successfully navigate their way into the heart of the West’s two seed down the stretch? That might require an east coast suitor sweeping SDSU’s current date (#1 in the East) off her feet…
5. Dayton
The race for the national title is important, but maybe not as important as the heated battle between Obi Toppin and the aforementioned Udoka Azubuike for Bart Torvik’s tremendously named Count Dunkula award:
That tweet came this weekend as Azubuike repeatedly assaulted the rim at Baylor. After each played a game this week, Big Doke edged ahead of Obi, 93 to 92, and we’ll be closely monitoring this all season.
Each guy is a different kind of dunker: Toppin’s have more flair and style (apologies for the fuzzy gif):
Azubuike, on the other hand, makes you wonder if there’s backup hoop in the bowels of the arena (see KU section). They each have their merits, to be sure, but I think I side with Mr. Toppin here…
6. Maryland
After another incredible comeback on the road, Maryland has a stranglehold on the top spot in the Big Ten standings, leading by two games with three to play. The Terps are very much in the 1-seed conversation should San Diego State or Gonzaga slip up, and they’re top 10 in (nearly) every set of analytical rankings (Terp fans, direct your ire towards Mr. Torvik and Mr. Haslam). But if you’re still looking for a reason to be skeptical of these Terrapins, look no further than their results away from College Park in Big Ten play:
· Down 17 to Minny (W), down 4 with 0:31 left – 2.8% chance to win
· Down 14 to Ohio State (L)
· Down 7 to Sparty with 3:24 left – 6.4% chance to win
· Down 14 at Illinois with 9:04 left in the first half (W) – 13.9% chance to win
· Down 6 at Indiana (W) with 1:25 left – 5.4% chance to win
· Down 14 at Northwestern (W) with 18:41 left – 21.6% chance to win
· Down 8 at Wisconsin (L)
· Down 22 at Iowa (L)
· Down 12 at Penn State (L)
I acknowledge that winning the games they have takes strong resolve and plenty of basketball skill, and they won’t be playing true road games in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s still valid to have questions about their ability to string together wins in the Big Dance, because unless you’re 2019 Virginia, you can’t get down to <10% chance to win a bunch of games and expect to continue escaping with a victory.
7. Creighton
Creighton’s surge to the ranks of the elite has been in no small part due to the Bluejays’ flamethrower of an offense, torching teams like Leo at the end of Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood. No question, the offense is elite and deserves every ounce of attention it’s getting.
But quietly, Creighton’s defense has progressed quite a bit, too:
It’s not in “national title contender” range for the full season, but if you filter Bart Torvik’s T-Rank for just February games, the Bluejays’ defense ranks 22nd in the entire country. Now that is bordering on title contender. Perhaps it won’t hold up in a six-game run through the best the country has to offer, but dismissing Creighton offhand because of a perceived “soft defense” would be unwise and short-sighted.
8. Florida State
I’ve discussed FSU’s switching defense in this space before, and one of the benefits of playing such a versatile lineup is how frequently the Seminoles force opponents to operate in isolation (credit to Jordan Sperber for pointing this out on Twitter):
Screening – both on and off the ball – is rendered largely ineffective by the ‘Noles’ army of wings and forwards, and opponents frequently end up backed up against the shot clock, hoping one player can exhibit some individual brilliance against an FSU defender. That in itself is a challenge: all of those athletes are just fine when forced to guard one-on-one. And ultimately, unless you’re one of the worst isolation defenses in the country, any iso possession is a positive one for the defense.
9. Kentucky
I sang Immanuel Quickley’s praises in this space last week, and in the time since that article, he’s posted a career-high in scoring…twice?
That’s right! Over the weekend, Quickley tallied 26 points against Florida, topping his previous career high of 23, and he one-upped himself on Tuesday night, roasting Texas A&M for a medium-rare 30-burger (including eight triples). I’m fascinated by the idea of a veteran having his best game and then playing even better just a few days later. Off the top of my head, Tulsa’s Martins Igbanu did something similar this year, as the senior posted a career-high 28 points on 1/26, topped it two games later with 29, and three days later raised the bar to 30. As a former player, I dream of being in a zone like Quickley or Igbanu.
Back to Quickley, though: when you play that well, I’m extremely on board with taking to Twitter for some well-earned celebration. This one in particular was terrific – Quickley stayed at UK and made himself a significantly better player, and at this point, an SEC Player of the Year candidate:
10. Duke
I just want everyone to know that I strongly debated writing a detailed, data-driven analysis of Coach K’s postgame handshake performances – average time in a win vs. loss, time spent with a former K assistant vs. any other coach, etc. – but unfortunately, the film I have access to did not consistently capture the exchanges enough to get a great sample. The important part, though, is that I considered it, and the fact that I’m reasonably sure it would have been hot #content is enough to tell you how ridiculous it has become.
The other important Duke note is that the Blue Devils lost at Wake Forest after leading by nine with 75 seconds left. I’m going to put that sentence on a giant poster that spans all four walls of my room.
11. Louisville
The Cardinals are still trying to dig out from under the avalanche that Florida State buried them with on Monday; the final 15-point margin feels like it understates how hopeless the second half was for the Cardinals. The Cardinals managed just 12 points in the final 14:30 of the game, and honestly, that’s probably grounds tobe excluded from these rankings, especially after the lifeless road games at Georgia Tech and Clemson that preceded it. But hey, they beat Syracuse and UNC at home!
I’m keeping them in here because of how good the first 25:30 was, with the Cards showing a high engagement level on both ends (looking at you, Jordan Nwora!) en route to building a double-digit lead. Freshman PG David Johnson struggled against the Seminoles’ embarrassment of lanky athleticism (six turnovers, four fouls), but that should ultimately be a quality learning experience for him. I firmly believe the highest version of this team’s ceiling involves Johnson heading the attack, and that was only the third start of his career.
The other caveat: starting C Malik Williams got hurt very early on (badly rolled an ankle), and the game may have gone quite differently with him patrolling the paint. Steven Enoch is a reasonable statistical replacement, but Cards fans seem far more attached to Mr. Williams. He’s day-to-day, per reports.
12. Oregon
We discussed this on our most recent podcast, but as much as I trust Dana Altman and Payton Pritchard to be extremely difficult outs in March, I have nearly as much skepticism of the supporting cast (Will Richardson excepted).
Chris Duarte, Anthony Mathis, Chandler Lawson, Shakur Juiston, C.J. Walker…I’m concerned about those guys consistently making big plays in difficult situations. Granted, Juiston had a monster overtime against Arizona on Saturday night, but I watched these guys struggle to do much of anything against Arizona State on Thursday night. Mathis fell out of the starting lineup in favor of Duarte, but the talented junior college transfer’s shot selection (and shot-making) is often baffling. He’s gone six consecutive games without an offensive rating above 100, shooting an appalling 5/31 (16.1%) from the perimeter. Lawson has 17 points combined in the last seven games, and Juiston has managed double-figures just four times in 15 Pac-12 games.
The defense will be tricky for any unfamiliar opponent to solve in a single elimination tournament, but Oregon could also be susceptible to a drought if Pritchard or Richardson has an off night.
The Next Ten: Seton Hall, Auburn, Villanova, Michigan, Arizona, Penn State, BYU, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State
Mid-Major Five
1. East Tennessee State
ETSU has the tricky challenge of re-incorporating a key player into the rotation late in the season, as PF Jeromy Rodriguez returned last night after a 13-game absence due to a foot injury (played six minutes). The Bucs went 12-1 without him and seemed to find an identity playing a little smaller, but Coach Steve Forbes (and, hopefully, Rodriguez’s teammates) realizes that the Bucs’ ceiling is significantly higher with the active Dominican forward on the floor. To wit: Rodriguez went for 12 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists in the huge road upset at LSU, earning KenPom’s game MVP for his efforts.
2. New Mexico State
With Terrell Brown and Trevelin Queen back in the lineup, the Aggies are finally as healthy as they’ll get this season; Brown looked like himself this weekend, pouring in 18 points in 25 minutes off the bench, while Queen is still ramping back up to full strength after a more serious injury (arthroscopic surgery on his knee).
Getting Queen confident in that knee is the key for the Aggies’ hopes as a potential Cinderella; when healthy, he’s capable of being the best player on the floor, even against a 3- or 4-seed opponent. Since returning from the injury, he’s had three consecutive games with an offensive rating below 100; before his injury, he was over 100 in 15 of the Aggies’ 20 contests. Between Brown, Jabari Rice, UTEP transfer Evan Gilyard, and ECU transfer Shawn Williams, NMSU has other perimeter options, but none of them present the same kind of matchup issues as the 6’6 Queen. Plus, he’s a phenomenal defender that can be tasked with guarding someone like Myles Powell, Ty-Shon Alexander, or Immanuel Quickley.
3. Northern Iowa
Mostly because of the tempo the Panthers play at under Ben Jacobson (ranked 300th or lower in adjusted tempo in 11 of his first 13 seasons), UNI has become mostly known as a defensive team. Recently, that has been especially true, as the Panthers have ranked at least 99 spots higher in defensive efficiency than offensive in each of the past three seasons. That has flipped on its head this year, though, with UNI’s offense ranking a pristine 18th in the entire country per KenPom’s rankings, largely thanks to A.J. Green’s star turn at the point guard spot.
But on Sunday, the Panthers used a dominant second half on the defensive end to take down surprise MVC contender SIU. With 18:26 remaining in the half, the visiting Salukis took a 39-29 lead, looking poised to knock off the league-leading Panthers for the second time this year. But more than 14 minutes later, with 3:58 on the game clock, UNI held a commanding 60-43 lead; for those without a calculator, that’s a 31-4 run spanning 14 and a half minutes. SIU is no offensive juggernaut, but that kind of shutdown performance is eye-opening. If UNI brings that defense to St. Louis in a week, they won’t need to worry about a possible at-large candidacy.
4. Yale
The Bulldogs nearly flamed out of the Mid-Major Five in epic fashion last Friday, barely pulling out a double overtime as a 12.5-point favorite at Cornell. Normally, I might drop Yale for such a shaky performance, but I’d rather praise Jordan Bruner’s phenomenal performance in that game. Bruner posted a triple-double (14 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). His facilitation was particularly impressive:
It’s a bummer that dude won’t be allowed to play in the Ivy League next year, because with him, this team could be a machine while only losing senior guard Eric Monroe from the primary rotation.
5. Stephen F. Austin
Following Vermont’s home loss to UMBC, I considered quite a few different names for this last spot (Akron, UNCG, Louisiana Tech, even Texas State), but that deliberation really just led me to the realization that it was time to recognize the Duke-slayer, Mr. Stephen Fuller Austin himself. The Lumberjacks have become well-known for that epic road upset (and more recently, an at-large/tournament selection debate inspired by Ken Pomeroy himself), but the most impressive thing about this team is its complete destruction of preseason expectations. Look no further than the meteoric rise up Mr. Pomeroy’s rankings:
That’s not all, though, as the Jacks were picked just 4th in the Southland preseason poll, voted on by the league’s head coaches and SIDs; SFA received just one first place vote (WHO WAS IT???). Instead, the Jacks have clinched the regular season title with two games to play, and they outrank their closest Southland rivals (Abilene Christian) by 108 spots in the NET.