-Jim Root
Edition 2 is here! The top two teams are currently in COVID timeout, but we’ve still had some outstanding hoops over the past week — and we have even more on the horizon…
1. Gonzaga
We may not have gotten the #1 vs. #2 showdown that we so desperately craved in Gonzaga/Baylor, but we are still slated to see the nation’s top two offenses go head-to-head when the Zags meet Iowa in South Dakota this Saturday. The two prolific attacks are head and shoulders above #3 Baylor, and the esteemed Ken Pomeroy projects that game to be a staggering 87-84 shootout, registering a cool 86.0 on the “Thrill Score” meter (that’s extremely high!). Basketball gods, just let us have that featured CBS game this Saturday. Please, please, please.
2. Baylor
The other national title contender currently on the shelf due to COVID concerns, Baylor is currently scheduled to return on Saturday against Big 12 punching bag Kansas State. Part of what’s elevated the Bears to Tier 1A behind Gonzaga has been the emergence of the bench brigade, as Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer, and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua have all been dynamite in their roles thus far.
Tcha-Tcha, as we’ve decided to affectionately label the UNLV transfer, is the most critical piece in maintaining – and even building on – last year’s elite play. He’s filled the Freddie Gillespie role admirably, absolutely gobbling up the glass (he’s in the top 51 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebound rates) and finishing effectively both from the field (58.3%) and the free throw line (85.7%). The Bears aren’t switching 1-through-5 with him the way they did with Gillespie, but if he can keep ball-handlers in front like this, Baylor’s defense could approach last year’s lethal unit:
He doesn’t need to be Gillespie – just be effective in the slightly-adjusted scheme that Scott Drew is rolling out.
3. Houston
Yesterday at BettorIQ, I wrote about eight teams that have been on the extreme ends of shooting luck this season, both good and bad. Among the “lucky” squads: these Houston Cougars. Opponents have made just 18.8% of their triples, and perhaps even worse, only 58.4% from the charity stripe. Both of those rates will increase, and as I mentioned in that article, the free throw shooting is especially harmful for a Houston squad that has been a hack-a-thon defensively thus far. The three-point shooting, though, may not regress that badly: Kelvin Sampson’s teams are long and physical, forcing a lot of difficult, challenged attempts from deep, leading to an impressive trend of consistently ranking in the country’s elite 3P% defenses:
While it’s true that it’s difficult to control opponents’ 3P%, Sampson’s defenses have proven to be an exception to that rule.
4. Michigan St.
I was wary of this Spartan team early in the season because I thought Tom Izzo would be highly experimental with his lineups. The frontcourt seemed especially nebulous, with Marcus Bingham, Thomas Kithier, Mady Sissoko, Julius Marble, and Malik Hall all vying for minutes at two spots – plus any time with Joey Hauser at power forward or playing with four guards. Surprisingly, though, the minutes have been pretty stable:
Only the phantom Foster Loyer starts and a precautionary load management game for Josh Langford have really shaken things up, with Bingham, Kither, Sissoko, Marble, and Hall’s minutes shockingly stable. Quickly establishing roles has no doubt helped the Spartans get off to their impressive 6-0 start, and it bodes well with Big Ten play on the horizon come Sunday night.
5. West Virginia
Last week, I razzed poor Oscar Tshiebwe’s mid-range jumper and the lack of spacing it creates in the paint, and Bob Huggins is clearly reading along. In the two games since, Huggy Bear has platooned his two mammoth centers more, gifting more time to versatile forward Gabe Osabuohien or playing smaller. This alignment clearly opens up the court; even though Osabuohien isn’t a shooter, he can attack off the bounce from the perimeter, and his passing makes it easier for Tshiebwe or Derek Culver to operate inside. It’s only a seven-game sample, but the lineup splits are notable (numbers per Hoop Lens):
More data from Hoop-Explorer.com shows the beneficial effect Osabuohien has on both Culver and Tshiebwe:
To clarify: “A Lineups” include Osabuohien, while “B Lineups” exclude him. Both Culver and Tshiebwe become significantly more efficient when sharing the court with the versatile senior, largely due to the increased spacing afforded them on the block. It’s a smart tweak that could pay big dividends down the road, even if it diminishes the Mountaineers’ “Bash Brothers” identity a bit.
6. Villanova
The Wildcats looked dead on arrival at Georgetown on Friday, going down 18 points multiple times in the first half and generally looking completely incapable of stopping Georgetown’s offense, whether it be in transition or via an inside-out attack funneled through burgeoning star Qudus Wahab. The ‘Cats clawed back in the second half, though, turning the game into a back-and-forth battle with several lead changes. That is, until they unleashed lightning bolt of an 11-0 run in under two minutes to nuke the Hoyas into oblivion:
Yikes. That was part of what became a 48-17 close to the game over the final 22 minutes (16-2 in the final 4:30), allowing Villanova to somehow cover the -12 closing spread despite trailing with under five minutes remaining. Just brutal for Hoya backers, but it’s also representative of what this Nova team can do when everything is clicking.
7. Tennessee
I present to you two images of Santiago Vescovi – last year on the left, this year on the right:
The bleach blonde Volunteer has raised his game so far, lifting his offensive rating from a dismal 90.8 last season to a sparkling 117.7 through two defensive slugfests this year. I’m strongly considering going bleach blonde myself at this point; if it raises my performance that significantly, these columns might actually be worth reading…
8. Kansas
Tyon Grant-Foster was a polarizing player among the Weave this preseason. Hunting for who would emerge as key pieces alongside Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji, the other Weavers (especially Matt) really latched onto the tantalizing JUCO transfer as that candidate. I was more bearish, leaning on the total lack of immediate impact junior college transfers at programs of KU’s caliber. Jalen Wilson has seized that role/breakout star status, but it was TGF that made a couple enormous plays down the stretch of the North Dakota State win on December 5th – including this massive block:
He’s not even in the paint when Sam Griesel starts to lay that up! He had a couple other “leap off the screen” sequences that really popped, and I was sure it was the start of TGF’s breakout — and me being wrong to resist his appeal. Instead, Bill Self buried him three days later for the Creighton game (played just four minutes), and it’s still unclear what his role will be going forward. He oozes potential, though, so I’d still bet on him emerging as he gains comfort in the system – with more highlights akin to the above block in his future.
9. Texas
One of the inherent limitations (in my eyes, at least) on this Texas squad throughout the preseason was the inefficiency of its guards. In particular, Matt Coleman and Courtney Ramey have never been bastions of shot-making, racking up average-at-best offensive ratings over the past two seasons. Both have exhibited a notable spike from all over the court, though, knocking down more jumpers and taking better care of the ball:
Coleman’s renaissance inside the arc has probably been the most crucial improvement; per hoop-math, he’s now shooting 43.8% on two-point jumpers, a colossal increase from the last two seasons (35.5% and 36.7%). That may not be entirely sustainable, but given his clear affection for 18-footers, increased efficiency there is a major boon for the Longhorns’ entire offense.
10. Iowa
Here are Iowa’s first two possessions against Iowa State on Friday:
Those two plays alone prompted me to tweet that Garza was going to score 40. Why? A couple reasons:
1) First, Garza was clearly feeling good with that triple – no hesitation, absolutely drilled it.
2) Whether it be by design or by virtue of having below average defensive players, Iowa State losing Garza in the second clip a minute into the game was a terrifying occurrence.
Unfortunately, foul trouble and a blowout second half limited Garza to just 17 minutes, but he did pour in 34 points in that time, utterly dominating the Cyclones inside and out every time he was on the court. Iowa’s entire offense has been that level of supernova, and the Hawkeyes are threatening to deliver on the warning I offered in my Iowa preview this offseason:
11. Louisville
The ACC to the Big Ten right now, via Louisville to Wisconsin:
The deep and powerful Big Ten took a commanding 6-1 lead on the opening day of the challenge back on December 8th, seemingly clinching the challenge since three matchups were postponed the following night. But the ACC swept the four Wednesday night meetings to pull the standings to 6-5, and Louisville and Wisconsin have officially rescheduled their matchup in Madison for this Saturday. That gives the ACC a chance to tie things up, and if Virginia and/or N.C. State can get out of COVID protocol and reschedule against Michigan/Michigan State, the ACC still has a shot to win the damn thing. Of course, the above gif is followed by Rey nearly cleaving Kylo Ren’s face in two, so perhaps that’s not the ending the ACC is hoping for…
12. Missouri
Here’s a list of teams that have a home, road, and neutral site win over a team from the nation’s top ten leagues:
1. These Missouri Tigers (@ Wichita St., Oregon on a neutral, vs. Illinois)
2. BYU (@ Utah St., St. John’s on a neutral, vs. Utah)
3. West Virginia (@ Georgetown, VCU on a neutral, vs. Richmond)
Sure, that’s kind of an odd and largely insignificant criteria since some teams haven’t even had the chance to play at all three venues (and I *might* have missed a team), but I don’t care – my Missouri Tigers are actually good right now! The offense still feels a bit “smoke-and-mirrors” at this point – shot creation is often an issue – but the defense is real, and it’s an extremely veteran squad that is actually healthy after dealing with key injuries to Jeremiah Tilmon and Mark Smith during conference play last year. If it all comes crashing down against sneaky-tough SWAC foe Prairie View A&M on Friday, well…we’ll always have Braggin’ Rights.