-Jim Root
Welcome back, basketball fans! It’s Year IX (that’s nine, for you haters of Roman numerals - do they still teach those in school?) of the Quick Peek at Futures, and the change in my approach has been steady but clear.
In the beginning (God voice), I would carefully pick out a couple top teams, a few mid-priced squads, and lightly sprinkle some longshots and cross my fingers. Now, it has become more of a portfolio approach: scoop up a wide array of bets at strong prices (some before portal movement and NBA Draft decisions, some after) and aim for overall value. I shape the “portfolio” such that certain teams are more profitable than others, and I’ll indicate those below.
Thus, the framing of the column has changed. Below are the (top) squads I am currently invested in + the price I got them at:
I. KenPom Top 25 – Portfolio (my price)
Purdue (25/1)
Kansas (22/1)
Houston (22/1)
Duke (15/1)
Alabama (60/1)
Marquette (25/1)
Creighton (30/1)
Michigan St. (40/1)
UNC (40/1)
USC (50/1)
Villanova (50/1)
Texas A&M (80/1)
Kansas St. (125/1)
I missed a better “pre-Edey returning” price on Purdue (I think Caesars tickled 40/1 at one point); I regret that. And yes, I have concerns about their construction and Painter’s approach when it comes to postseason success, but I also think I’m getting a 1 or 2 seed at 25/1. Kansas (Bill Self north of 20/1) and Duke (best team in the country, in my opinion) were no-brainers for me. Houston has a little more uncertainty than most Kelvin Sampson years, but he’s a genius, and there’s plenty of pieces for him to build an elite squad in the Big 12. Still, I could have gotten a slightly better price on the Cougars right now.
I am not super thrilled about my Alabama ticket, but I’ll certainly root for it. Let’s keep the focus on the court this year, Tide. Marquette’s offense seduced me, though I do think missing O-Max Prosper will matter on both ends. As heard on the most recent 3MW podcast, Creighton is my national runner-up, so of course I’m in on the Bluejays (elite backcourt trio + Kalkbrenner). Michigan State was an early April swing, and seeing everyone but Hauser return has me very enthused about that 40/1 price. Play your diaper dandies, Tom - I beg you!
The two U_C schools, UNC and USC, have extremely valid coaching questions, but the rosters are undeniably talented and tantalizing. Speaking of outstanding rosters and iffy coaches, Villanova has an absolutely loaded college lineup, but whether Kyle Neptune can maximize that group the way Jay Wright always did is highly debatable. Like Bama, I’m not super pumped about my Texas A&M wager. Finally, of COURSE I am rolling with Jerome Tang and my guy Tylor Perry (aka Kansas State) at triple-digit odds, though they need Nae’Qwan Tomlin back at some point.
Most profitable outcomes: Duke, Marquette, Michigan State, Creighton, Houston
I don’t make much if Alabama, USC or Texas A&M win.
II. KenPom Top 25 – NOT in Portfolio (best currently available price I could find)
UConn (22/1)
Gonzaga (30/1)
Arizona (25/1)
Baylor (60/1)
Tennessee (33/1)
Arkansas (30/1)
Auburn (70/1)
Texas (40/1)
Kentucky (18/1)
Illinois (80/1)
Wisconsin (150/1)
Maryland (74/1)
Of this group, the ones I’m most tempted to add are Arizona, Tennessee and Arkansas. Tommy Lloyd’s up-tempo, two-big style has had issues in the postseason, but Keshad Johnson makes them more versatile. It’s also difficult for me to trust Caleb Love, but they also won big with Kerr Kriisa, so maybe it’s not as big of an issue to have an erratic chucker in the backcourt. Plus, the ‘Cats should win the Pac-12. Both the Vols and the Hogs have major two-way upside, and Arkansas in particular has proven that its style is conducive to tournament success.
The other teams I avoided for various reasons, whether it be price or a general lack of belief in the true ceiling.
Though the talent is there, I generally resist the idea of a UConn repeat, especially after the losses of three absolutely vital pieces to last year’s title. Plus, the Huskies’ initial odds were up around 10/1 or 12/1, and they did not drop too far when some NBA Draft decisions went against them. I do not trust Gonzaga’s defense whatsoever, while Baylor simply has too many questions for me to invest at this point.
Auburn’s backcourt has upside but still makes me uneasy. Texas’ coaching staff is not my cup of tea (not limited to just Rodney Terry – go look at it and guess why). And I certainly do not trust mid-tier Big Ten teams (Illinois, Wisconsin, Maryland). Generally speaking, Kentucky is interesting this year given the structure of its roster (more guards, more shooting), but they are priced like a top five team and that, frankly, is silly. Perhaps Big Blue’s odds will come back down to earth with all of the frontcourt injuries.
I will be keeping my eye on this group though, likely adding one or two more to someone who flashes major potential in the non-conference.
Other notable exclusions: UCLA, Miami (FL), Colorado, Virginia, Indiana
III. Other Potential Tourney Teams in the Portfolio
St. John’s (50/1, 80/1, 100/1)
FAU (70/1 and 80/1)
Memphis (75/1 and 80/1)
Florida (125/1)
San Diego St. (125/1)
Ohio St. (150/1)
Saint Mary’s (150/1)
Texas Tech (150/1)
Clemson (200/1)
I believe all of these teams will be in the Big Dance, and thus I could not resist some long shot numbers. The Aztecs of San Diego State helped me make money by reaching the Final Four at this exact same price last year, and all MWC conference title odds indicate their strong chance at topping the league again.
Of course I’m riding with St. John’s and Rick Pitino; the roster might not be quite there yet, but I believe in Ricky P. Both FAU and Memphis are loaded and should reign atop the American. The primary concern for both is surviving brutal non-conference gauntlets with their confidence fully intact.
Florida, Ohio St., Texas Tech and Clemson are some power conference teams that had strong offseasons. The Gators hit a few home runs in the portal (and beat Miami in a secret scrimmage!!); it’s time for Todd Golden to get things going in Gainesville. The Buckeyes’ young talent is appealing (Bruce Thornton Hive, assemble), and Clemson is overflowing with shooting and has a healthy PJ Hall. The Red Raiders have been my pet team all summer/fall; I just cannot imagine Grant McCasland and that roster being anything but terrific defensively.
Lastly, Saint Mary’s continues to add talent, and Randy Bennett is as good as it gets on the sideline. The offense should be improved this year, compensating for some slight steps back defensively.
IV. The Longest Shots (Ignore For Your Own Good)
Ole Miss (200/1)
Georgetown (250/1)
Providence (250/1)
Missouri (275/1)
BYU (300/1)
Boise St. (300/1)
Wake Forest (300/1)
Washington St. (500/1)
Utah (500/1)
California (1000/1)
McNeese St. (3000/1)
This section is proof I have no self-control and am chasing the rush of a Final Four run from a random team. But hey, we’re coming off a season where the Final Four included FAU, so let’s pretend ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!
Hand up: the Georgetown speculative ticket pre-portal is a total dud, and Washington St. got hit by more departures than I (and they) expected. For the Cal ticket to matter, Jaylon Tyson needs a waiver. And yes, McNeese, I know. I have a problem. Admitting is the first step.
For all the others, though, I stand by the upside at the number I secured. Mizzou to its first Final Four, confirmed!