-Jim Root
We at the Weave strongly gravitate towards sides when gambling on college hoops. Totals are more of an “unexplored frontier” for us, as we don’t have a system in place for boiling down the board and getting to specific leans. Still, every once in a while, a specific angle pops up that makes us dabble in the over/under market.
Just like spreads, totals are the hardest to predict early in the season, for both bettors and oddsmakers. Limited information on how the current year version of a team will play presents an opportunity if one can get ahead of the market in some way. By far the biggest variable in setting a game total is tempo, and the key indicator on tempo is the coach patrolling the sideline; last year is a great predictor for pace, but coaching changes can massively swing that number in one fell swoop. I wrote a similar piece last season, but it was more “hindsight” after we had a sample of games; this time around, I want to try to find those prospective paydays before they happen.
Ken Pomeroy’s site - a vital tool for oddsmakers - smartly adjusts for these changes, especially in the most glaring of instances. The below table shows the biggest movers and shakers in KenPom’s tempo rankings when compared to last year:
Unsurprisingly, nearly every move is due to a coaching change (22 of the 25 listed). The three that aren’t (Omaha, American, and CCSU) are due to last year being an outlier in that coach’s history, and the data naturally wants to slink back to its comfort zone. There can be advantages found in those teams: if last year was indicative of a long-term stylistic shift, rather than a flash-in-the-pan adjustment, the projected regression will prove incorrect.
Of course, if the oddsmakers’ data already includes the coach-related tempo changes (like those above), the edge is gone - unless you think the change will be even more pronounced than forecasted. That’s tough to prove, and although I think there may be some possibilities among those teams, I will largely stick to teams not on this list.
Where an advantage can be gleaned is on teams/coaches with no history, complicating the projection. New head coaches (or new to Division I) are a potential inefficiency, and below, I looked at several teams that may present an opportunity early in the year:
Gas Pedal Gang
Note - all tempo rankings listed below are via KenPom.com. To clarify, I expect these teams to play faster than their listed 2020 projections.
Holy Cross (last year tempo rank: 336, projected 2020 rank: 259)- Brett Nelson takes over for longtime Division I staple Bill Carmody, whose glacially slow teams were easy to peg year-to-year. Nelson, though, played for Billy Donovan and assisted under two of his assistants (Donnie Jones, John Pelphrey), and he’s spend the last five years under Steve Wojciechowski at Marquette (average tempo rank in that span: 115.8). All of that history - and Nelson’s own insinuations - indicate a massive uptick in tempo in Worcester, even though the Crusaders will have an incredibly young roster.
Siena (last year tempo rank: 352, projected 2020 rank: 322) - Despite the presence of All-MAAC star freshman Jalen Pickett at point guard, Jamion Christian dropped anchor last year, dragging games to a halt due to his team’s lack of depth and athleticism. His old assistant Carmen Maciariello now takes over, and he’s made it quite clear he will remove the training wheels:
"I can tell you our pace will be faster just because of how I like to play," he [Maciariello] said. "Our pace won't be the second-slowest, but that's easy to say, right?"
South Alabama (last year tempo rank: 241, projected 2020 rank: 172) - The Jaguars are a different case from the others listed, as they experienced a coaching change last offseason. In his first year, Richie Riley wasn’t always comfortable pushing the pace, especially with questionable depth and three key transfers sitting out. Now with a fully stocked roster, Riley has made it clear he’s planning to ratchet up the tempo to where he had it in year two at Nicholls, when his squad ranked 12th in the country. From Blue Ribbon:
“We want to get back to that [playing fast]. Last year, from a sheer numbers standpoint, it was hard for us to play at the tempo we wanted. But now with the depth that we have, we think we can do that.”
UNC Asheville (last year tempo rank: 350, projected 2020 rank: 351)- Like South Alabama, the Bulldogs did not have a coaching change this offseason. Mike Morrell enters year two after an extremely trying debut in which his team ranked dead last in the country in experience. With such youth (and a lack of depth), Morrell simply couldn’t play the pace he wanted, instead opting to “park the bus,” to borrow a soccer term. Now that his team has more experience, plus two valuable transfers in LaVar Batts (NC State) and Jax Levitch (Fort Wayne) that are accustomed to uptempo systems, Morrell is primed to crank the pressure and speed things up. From an excellent Brian Hamilton piece at The Athletic:
“When we were at VCU, we always wanted to play fast and pressure people. That’s how I wanted to play. I couldn’t play like that in Year 1. We didn’t have the depth and we just weren’t ready to do that.”
Cal Poly (last year tempo rank: 255, projected 2020 rank: 196) - This one is pretty simple - there’s no data for new coach John Smith, but he’s spent the last six years under Dedrique Taylor at Cal St. Fullerton, where the Titans had an average tempo ranking of 112.5. Plus, it’s highly likely he trusts his backcourt to push in transition, considering it’s made up of his son Jamal and nephew Keith.
Other Possibilities: Michigan (depends on how much NBA “pace-and-space” you think Juwan Howard brings to Ann Arbor), Vanderbilt (same for Jerry Stackhouse in Nashville), UMES (Jason Crafton played quickly at times at D-II Nyack and was in the G-League), Idaho (Zac Claus was at Nevada for awhile under Mark Fox and David Carter)
Hit the Brakes Brigade
I expect these teams to play slower than their listed 2020 projections.
Lipscomb (last year tempo rank: 12, projected 2020 rank: 46)- Old boss Casey Alexander set a blistering baseline for the program, ranking in the top 12 in each of his final three seasons in charge. Plus, Scott Sanderson played quickly before him, too. Lennie Acuff, a newcomer to Division I from D-II Alabama-Huntsville, played a more methodical style; see the graphic below, borrowed from my Lipscomb preview on our site:
Now add in a couple of qualitative factors: the team’s point guard situation is relatively unsettled, and the talent level is slightly lower than where it has been in the past. Put all that together, and it seems highly likely that the Bisons play much slower than 46th nationally.
Tulane (last year tempo rank: 78, projected 2020 rank: 115)- First, the risk: Ron Hunter is absolutely capable of playing this fast (or faster), considering that his final Georgia State squad ranked 69th. But that was the exception, as his previous four teams finished 246, 152, 320, and 275 in the same stat. He also knows Tulane may be at a talent disadvantage on many nights, despite the impressive group of transfers he brought in, so I’d expect him to muck things up.
Mercer (last year tempo rank: 224, projected 2020 rank: 60) - Greg Gary’s Bears are an interesting case to parse. Under previous boss Bob Hoffman, Mercer played quite slowly, but KenPom projects the Bears 60th in tempo this year. That’s heavily influenced by Gary’s brief tenure in charge of the delightfully named Centenary Gentlemen in 2009 and 2010. However, while on Matt Painter’s staff at Purdue, the Boilers have had great success slowing things down the last two seasons. I’d guess Gary plays closer to those teams than his ill-fated Centenary squads.
Presbyterian (last year tempo rank: 166, projected 2020 rank: 149) - After Dustin Kerns blew the ceiling off what was possible for the Blue Hose with an uptempo, three-point heavy offense, he took the Appalachian State job. Presbyterian turned to alum Quinton Ferrell, who played at the school from 2003-07. In his 12 years as an assistant since then, he’s learned under grinding half court coaches in 11 of them:
Given Ferrell’s influences and the talent drain on the roster, playing into the 300s in pace makes too much sense.
Note: My favorite choice here was Niagara; Patrick Beilein played at a crawl in Division II (much like his father), yet the Purple Eagles were projected at 106th in tempo. The UNDER was flashing in neon lights, but unfortunately the younger Beilein will not be making his debut this year.
Other Possibilities: Merrimack (Joe Gallo is a great friend of the Beilein family, and he assisted under some slower teams at Dartmouth and Robert Morris, but he did press a bunch in D-II and has a guard-dominant roster), Washington St. (Kyle Smith is smart enough to slow things to a standstill based on the talent disparity he’ll often face, and a few of his Columbia teams were in the bottom 20-30 nationally in pace), Stetson (Donnie Jones played slowly during his first two years at both UCF and Marshall as he waited to bring in “his guys,” and he could do the same thing here).
For another great perspective on impending tempo changes, check out this post at cuttingdownnets, which keys in on point guard play especially.