-Jim Root
Another season, another Peek at Futures! This is now the Elite Eighth edition of this column, a college basketball preseason fixture akin to the clocks turning back. Fortunately, unlike that confusing time change, this column will not end after this year. And hopefully someday The Almanac turns eight, as well – buy yours today!
Sidenote: “eighth” is a weird word to look at. It seems like it’s spelled wrong. I dunno.
At this point, “Peek” is fairly misrepresentative term. This has become a “Jim cannot control himself at the futures window” exercise, for better or for worse.
Fortunately, it has been profitable in recent years. Last year, Kansas 18/1 was a winner, and Villanova 25/1 reaching the Final Four as well prevented the need for hedging. I rode the Jayhawks (hedge-free) in the title game, so needless to say: I owe Remy Martin and David McCormack a couple drinks.
I detailed almost all of these in a tweet thread back in April (here), so you’re not allowed to yell at me for these being stale value. Load up in April! It’s fun to say you got cool prices!
On to the madness of my portfolio…
Tier I. The Real Contenders
Kentucky 14/1
Houston 16/1 and 22/1
Baylor 20/1 and 22/1
Gonzaga 20/1
This tier is larger than normal, but I prefer Houston and Baylor (my picks to be national finalists) to the other two. To me, they possess the best and deepest backcourts in the country, replete with scorers, shooters and creators. Both Lone Star schools also have brilliant coaches and a tremendous collection of complementary talent. If Jarace Walker (Houston’s freshman phenom) and Jalen Bridges (Baylor’s veteran ‘tweener forward) deliver on their potential, these two should play deep into March.
I bought Kentucky immediately after these odds came out, as I was confident Oscar Tshiebwe would return to school. John Calipari was less active in the transfer portal than I expected, which dulls my excitement for the ‘Cats somewhat. Still, 14/1 is better than the market currently offers, so I shall not complain. Cason Wallace – go nuts, young man.
As for Gonzaga: if the Bulldogs win a title and I do not make any money on it, I would cry waterfalls of tears. I had them 50/1 in 2017 (lost in the title game), 12/1 in 2021 (lost in the title game), and 10/1 last year (when they ranked #1 most of the year). I scooped this price up at Westgate right when Drew Timme and Julian Strawther returned to school. Not sure I could recommend the Zags at 10/1 right now, though, considering the major questions defensively.
Tier II. The Fringe Fellas
Texas 50/1
Alabama 50/1
Creighton 55/1
TCU 100/1
Oregon 100/1
Indiana 100/1
Virginia 100/1
San Diego State 100/1 and 125/1
Dayton 100/1 and 150/1
Xavier 120/1
Florida 150/1
Another huge tier! Did I mention I have no self-control? This increase is primarily due to gambling on value as the offseason begins. With the way the portal shifts talent around, it creates opportunity to get coaches/programs at a discount early on – if you can handle having your money tied up for a year. And wouldn’t you know it, I hate liquidity!
These are mostly fliers with hopes that the value will improve. Luckily, almost all of them have. Alabama is still available at 50/1, but most of the other prices are gone. None turned out to be real “home run” type of bets, but I expect the majority of them to go dancing. At that point, anything is possible.
At current prices for these teams, I’m still intrigued by TCU 50/1 (most shops), San Diego State 80/1 (PointsBet), Dayton 80/1 (most shops) and Florida 90/1 (PointsBet). Circa has better prices on a couple, but I don’t live in the desert anymore, so I feel dirty giving those prices out.
Tier III. Do Something Smarter With Your Money
Virginia Tech 175/1
Saint Louis 200/1
Oklahoma St. 200/1
Wyoming 200/1
Mizzou 500/1 (just let me be a homer, ok)
VCU 700/1
Tulane 1500/1
Liberty 1500/1
These bets are almost all for $20 or less. They are simply dart throws to hopefully steal a Sweet 16 team for some upside. I’d definitely prefer betting all of these teams To Make the Final Four at shorter odds — far easier to hedge out if they advance.
They all can probably be had for at least this number: I know Circa has Saint Louis (300/1) and Wyoming (500/1) at better deals. Again, these are not recommendations. Simply outlining what I have because transparency is beauty!
Tier IV. The Bad Batch
Louisville 200/1
Washington St. 300/1
These turned out to be bad bets. Not going to torch them yet, but it’s already time to mentally eat the losses. Ok, fine – I might light the Louisville ticket on fire already. If you can’t beat shorthanded Lenoir-Rhyne…
Tier V. The Stay Aways
Duke and Arkansas – both between 12/1 and 17/1
Contrary to what this section would have you believe, I really like both rosters. But both teams are extremely young, and I expect early turbulence that could provide better value (or clarity that neither is worth betting). Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively have sat out a ton of the preseason for the Blue Devils and could miss games, and Jon Scheyer could take some time to get acclimated to the big chair. Arkansas, meanwhile, typically has a swoon in December and/or January, and with massive roster upheaval and youth, I expect something similar. Both teams could be peaking in March, though, so I will be keeping an eye out for an appealing midseason price.
Villanova – somewhere between 37/1 and 45/1
In the past, Villanova was a darling of this column. I still daydream about the stress-free run to the 2018 championship. However, I fear for the Wildcats in the Jay Wright aftermath. That’s not because I doubt Kyle Neptune (I believe, long-term), but because this team is young and injured. I’m bearish on Justin Moore’s availability until the heart of conference play, and Cam Whitmore is without a timeline currently. The ‘Cats could struggle in the non-conference and then have to rediscover an identity late.
Michigan St. – somewhere between 50/1 and 80/1
Michigan State should have a balanced offensive attack…and what else? It’s hard to say. The lack of true physical intimidators in the paint means it will be difficult for a Tom Izzo team to play like a Tom Izzo team. Plus, the early season schedule is an absolute terror gauntlet of epic proportions, meaning the Spartans could struggle mightily out of the gates.
Conclusion
As you read this, you might have said to yourself, “Jim, it’s not even impressive if you win one of these because you bet so many.” To which I say: YEAH, you’re probably right! But let’s not forget, I’m hoping to make a profit here. So let me dream of the Houston, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton Final Four of fortune. Hedging would be irrelevant – heck, I might even fly FIRST CLASS down to Houston for the actual event if that happens.
However: if the Final Four is Duke, UNC, Arkansas, and Kansas, I will be hitchhiking to Texas and sleeping outside.
FWIW: my most profitable outcomes are Houston, Dayton and Baylor. Least profitable outcomes (relative to the other bets I made) are Alabama, Creighton and Virginia.