-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Isaac Likekele, Kalib Boone, Keylan Boone, Chris Harris Jr., Avery Anderson III
Key Losses: Yor Anei, Jonathan Laurent
Key Newcomers: Cade Cunningham, Ferron Flavors Jr. (Cal Baptist), Montreal Pena, Rondel Walker, Matthew Alexander-Moncrieffe, Donovan Williams, Bernard Kouma (JUCO)
*UPDATE: Mississippi transfer Bryce Williams received a waiver and will be immediately eligible for the 2020-21 season. Formerly a premier JUCO prospect, Williams struggled against Division I competition last year at Ole Miss. Williams is regarded as a knockdown shooter, and should carve out a spot in the primary rotation right away.
Lineup:
Outlook: “Loyalty”… “Commitment”…
Many teams plaster those cliché culture words on the locker room wall. Few teams have it tested like Oklahoma State did this summer.
The NCAA’s exceedingly harsh penalization, a 2021 postseason ban, for the Lamont Evans FBI nonsense could’ve resulted in serious roster carnage. But, shockingly, the entire band stayed together, including the shining star of Boynton’s incoming recruiting class, Cade Cunningham.
Cunningham’s not your typical #1 overall prospect. He’s a generational talent who’s been on NBA scouts radar for years. Hailing from Dallas-Fort Worth proper, a fruitful talent bed that’s produced a number of OSU stars over the years, Boynton had his eye on Cunningham long before he was a household name.
This offseason, we had a chance to speak Montverde assistant coach, Ben Wisniewski, who detailed what a special player Cade really is:
Cunningham’s hype circus overshadows Isaac Likekele, who will ride shotgun alongside Cade in the backcourt. Likekele will have to relinquish his spot in the driver seat to Cade, but this should bode well for his individual offensive efficiency. It was a tale of two seasons for Likekele last year, a burly 6’4 guard whose physicality and tenacity bears a striking resemblance to former OSU standout Marcus Smart. Likekele was shot out of a cannon to open the season, igniting a 7-0 start that included blowout wins over Syracuse and Mississippi. Then, an unsuspecting culprit, mononucleosis, derailed that freight train of momentum just as the calendar turned to December.
“It really sucked,” Likekele said in an interview with O’Colly media group. “I felt like I was playing my best basketball and the team, we were playing our best basketball. I just wanted to keep that rhythm going.”
Once Likekele returned, he never could shake the rust from lying dormant for an entire month in the heart of the season…
“I did have an understanding that this is a game that takes repetition,” Boynton said about Likekele in the same O’Colly interview. “I mean he didn't do anything for a month. He didn’t practice. That’s a long time without physical activity.”
However, in the Pokes final two regular season tilts, Likekele turned back the clock. He posted a double-double against Texas to the tune of 15 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists, and then delivered a 21-point, 9-assist encore performance in the first (and ultimately meaningless) game of the Big-12 tournament against Iowa State.
For those worried about any head-butting between Cade and Isaac, two assertive alpha dogs, please squash those concerns immediately. I’ll confess, this dynamic made me a bit queasy upon first thought. But, that was before I read about the unbreakable bond this duo developed during their gold medal run together at the U19 World Cup last summer, which Wisniewski validated during our interview:
“That’s my guy,” Likekele said about Cunningham. “It’s nothing but good vibes between me and him. We’ve got a good relationship on and off the court.”
My only nitpick with an offense that revolves around Likekele and Cunningham’s shot creation is their respective scoring styles, which skew heavily toward midrange pull ups and challenged shots at the rim. Likekele was a surprisingly poor finisher last year and who knows how quickly Cunningham will adjust to Division I, Big-12 caliber length and physicality. For the record, I think Cade will be just fine, but it’s a fair devil’s advocate take.
An accomplished senior class departs (McGriff, Waters, Dziagwa), so there’s plenty of vacancy in the role player department. Knockdown shooters to flank Likekele and Cunningham are in high demand and Cal Baptist transfer Ferron Flavors seems to be just what the doctor ordered. Flavors is a career 38% 3-point shooter on high volume (over 450 career attempts), which includes a scorching hot 45% conversion rate last season. As a pure catch-and-shoot specialist, Favors couldn’t have picked a better place to showcase his talent (singular form intended). Burgeoning freshman and top-100 recruit Rondel Walker should crack the primary perimeter rotation as well. A slender combo guard with a respected jumper, Walker’s rookie destiny is a high upside utility man.
On defense, it was Déjà vu for the Pokes last year. The season-long defensive metrics mask the stark contrast between OSU’s non-conference and Big-12 efforts. OSU finished with a top-50 overall defense but surrendered 1.03 points per possession against Big-12 competition, the third worst clip in the league. Yor Anei’s late season disappearing act, an act made permanent when he opted to transfer early this spring, deflated the Pokes’ defensive stability in conference play, as did a few untimely injuries to valuable reserves late in the year.
However, that does not absolve Mike Boynton’s defensive blueprint from criticism. Since Boynton’s arrival in 2017, OSU’s finished 9th, 10th (last) and 8th in the Big-12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. This points to a larger systemic issue festering beneath the surface.
First off, Boynton likes to change up his defenses quite frequently. The base packages in his defensive playbook feature an extended 2-3 zone and a smothering man-to-man. The zone was shaky at best last year, which is validated by Synergy’s defensive statistical splits: OSU’s defensive efficiency in zone ranked 154th nationally, compared to 68th in man-to-man. That said, the man-to-man scheme could use some fine tuning as well…
The hallmark of Boynton’s man-to-man is relentless perimeter denial. Last year, with a fly swatter like Anei roaming the middle, that’s a defensible approach. In theory, there’s always a safety net waiting to scoop up any cutters and drivers dicing toward the bucket. However, trying to bait teams into the lane can backfire against cerebral opponents. Smart offenses were able to draw Anei away from the rim in creative ways, often leaving the restricted area completely unguarded.
Oddly enough, OSU’s deny-heavy defense is also prone to surrendering a ton of wide-open threes from the outside. This is because Boynton adopts a variation of traditional pack-line principles in help-side rotations, seen in the way the Pokes aggressively pinch down on dribble penetration. The combination of fierce on-ball pressure and feverous off-ball help often leads to defenders flying all over the place in disjointed chaos. Unselfish teams can whip the ball around after an initial breakdown and exploit the Pokes in this regard – for my money, Baylor was the exemplar at this last season.
Thank you for joining me on that long and windy soliloquy on OSU’s defense. Here’s what it boils down to: this year’s personnel *should* enable Boynton’s defensive aspirations. Kalib Boone is a springy leaper on the cusp of a breakout and both Cade and Likekele, along with speedy sophomores Avery Anderson and Chris Harris Jr., will pester ball handlers like a pack of hyenas. But, there’s zero margin for error in this helter-skelter defense. Mistakes either result in an unchallenged layup or an uncontested three.
Depth should not be a concern this season, as it has been in the past for Boynton. The Boone brothers, specifically Kalib, should blossom into key cogs in the frontcourt rotation and Boynton brought in another program building crop of freshmen, which looks like a carbon copy to last year’s haul, save Cade. 4-star prospect Matthew Alexander-Moncrieffe, an athletic multi-positional tweener, is an enticing addition, but lower ranked Montreal Pena may get the biggest bite at the apple. Those same overused descriptors apply to Pena: Long. Bouncy. Athletic. Versatile. He runs the floor like a gazelle and with Anei no longer in the picture, look for Pena to platoon up front as another high-flying big in Boynton’s treasure chest.
Bottom Line: This roster feels top heavy, but with two stellar lead guards, including an All-American caliber freshman phenom, picking the Pokes any lower than 7th in the Big-12 feels foolish. In-state rival Oklahoma could usurp the Pokes, but I’d be stunned to see the Cowboys slip into the bottom-3. The commitment this roster showed to Boynton this offseason was special, a blinking indicator that OSU will claw tooth and nail for every possession this season – and for them, the regular season IS the postseason.