- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jahlil Jenkins, Sr., Fairleigh Dickinson
Coach of the Year: Jared Grasso, Bryant
Newcomer of the Year: Peter Kiss, R Jr., Bryant
Freshman of the Year: Josh Reaves, Fr., Mount Saint Mary’s
Tier 1
1. Fairleigh Dickinson
Key Returners: Jahlil Jenkins, Elyjah Williams, Xzavier Malone-Key, Brandon Powell, Brandon Rush, Devon Dunn
Key Losses: Kaleb Bishop, Bassel Saliba
Key Newcomers: Pier-Olivier Racine, John Square Jr., Joe Munden Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook: FDU disappointed last season, finishing with just the 7th best KenPom ranking in the NEC. The Knights lost two key players from their 2019 NCAA Tournament run but still ranked in the top 60 nationally in continuity – many thought they’d contend for an NEC title. As has been the case most years under Greg Herenda, FDU’s defense let it down. This season will carry even higher expectations, as Herenda has arguably his best squad on paper of his head coaching tenure. The Knights return nearly everyone from last season and are led by a bona fide NEC Player of the Year contender in Jahlil Jenkins.
Herenda has had a top two NEC offense three of the past five seasons. His Knights ranked 2nd in the league in 2019-20 thanks to sniper-like shooting from everywhere on the floor. FDU’s 39.8% three-point clip in conference play was a ridiculous 2.4% higher than second-ranked Robert Morris – that gap was larger than RMU’s gap to the fifth-ranked NEC squad. All that shooting returns in 2020-21; the Knights bring back three players who cashed in over 40% of their long-ball tries a season ago and promise to pace the conference in shooting once again.
Herenda’s ball screen heavy offense is led by Jahlil Jenkins, a 2nd Team All-NEC member last season and a player who go down as one of the best in FDU program history when graduates in the Spring. Jenkins already ranks 15th in school history in scoring, 12th in 3PM, 4th in assists, and 5th in steals. While there’s plenty of players in the country who put up gaudy numbers on high-volume shooting, Jenkins does it with efficiency – he was a 40% three-point shooter last season and had never posted an O-rating under 101 during his three-year career. Off ball screens, Jenkins ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally in points per possession; his quickness and ability to pull from anywhere makes him impossible to guard.
Expect Jenkins to take home some NEC honor hardware this postseason and play nearly every single minute of every single game.
Jenkins leads a stable of guards at Herenda’s disposal. The FDU head honcho has been notorious for keeping a short bench the past five seasons, but he has the horses in the backcourt this year to play a large rotation. Xzavier Malone-Key returns to provide scoring on the wing – like Jenkins he exceled in the pick-n-roll last year, ranking in the 95th percentile nationally in PPP. With Kaleb Bishop’s graduation and no clear replacement, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Herenda use XMK as a “4” in more small-ball lineups. Shooting guards Brandon Powell, Devon Dunn, and Brandon Rush will all compete for starts alongside Jenkins and XMK. Powell is primarily a shooter and led the NEC in three-point percentage last season (46.7% on 60 attempts). Rush is an athletic guard who started 10 games in 2019-20 and also functions mostly as a shooter offensively. Dunn was an NEC All-Rookie Team honoree last year – he shot 42.4% in league play and should be in store for a massive sophomore campaign.
While I think Herenda will go deeper into his bench than last season, it’s unlikely he goes past the aforementioned guards for backcourt production. Callum Baker, a backup PG, and Joe Munden Jr., a very athletic wing with defensive potential, will need to wait another year before truly contributing.
Up front, Kaleb Bishop’s departure leaves a significant hole. FDU was not a good rebounding or rim protecting team in 2019-20, but Bishop was one of the few that contributed in both facets. Returning forward Elyjah Williams will play all the minutes he can handle in his senior season – like Bishop he provides rebounding and shot-blocking, but he’s a bit undersized to play the 5 in majority of lineups. Offensively, Williams really shines with his ability to post or score off the bounce against slower defenders.
Herenda will turn to a combination of sophomore forwards Marc Dadika and Daniel Rodriguez, senior 7-footer Oscar Okeke, and freshmen Pier-Olivier Racine and John “Mikey” Square Jr. for frontcourt production alongside Williams. Dadika is the most likely candidate to receive more minutes – he played 21 games last year and proved he could stretch the floor offensively and block shots defensively. Rodriguez is a burly forward who can push around weaker NEC bigs in the paint – he’s most valuable for his offensive rebounding ability. Okeke is a long 7-footer who boards and blocks, but he’s a zero offensively past catch-and-dunk. Racine has a good shot at claiming a starting spot next to Williams if Herenda opts to go with a more traditional lineup. He has good size and brings with him a reputation as a good defender. Square is an athletic forward with an emphasis on *athletic*.
In the intro I mentioned that FDU’s defense let it down. The Knights have been brutal on this end in every single one of Herenda’s seven seasons at the helm. Only once has FDU had a top-300 defense under Herenda, per KenPom, and that unit ranked just 295th. In 2019-20 FDU ranked 9th in the NEC in adjusted defensive efficiency and 331st in the country. The Knights allowed tons of threes and even more easy looks near the rim – turnover causation was an issue, rebounding, was an issue, stopping transition was an issue. Herenda mixes in a soft 2-3 zone to go along with his straight man looks and occasional 2-2-1 trapping full-court press. No matter what defense FDU ran last season, however, opponents had no trouble putting points on the scoreboard. An older and deeper team should theoretically be better on this end in 2020-21, but there’s no precedence for competent defense under Herenda in Teaneck.
Bottom Line: On paper FDU has to be considered one of, if not, THE favorite in the NEC. However, piss poor defense could hold this team back once again from realizing its potential. Herenda has proven his ability to take the Knights to the NCAA Tournament and overcome his defensive struggles, so perhaps he can recreate that magic in 2020-21. I am a big-time believer in the offense – a unit that should be the best in the NEC – I’m just tempering my excitement about this team overall due to the other end of the floor.
2. Bryant
Key Returners: Michael Green III, Charles Pride, Hall Elisias
Key Losses: Adam Grant, Juan Cardenas, Benson Lin, Ikenna Ndugba, Mikail Simmons, Patrick Harding
Key Newcomers: Melo Eggleston (Arkansas State), Peter Kiss (Rutgers), Chris Childs (JUCO), Darius Guinn (JUCO), Luke Sutherland (Siena), Joe Moon IV, Erickson Bans, Kai Kostmayer, Luis Hurtado (UAB)
Lineup:
Outlook: Jared Grasso improved his Bryant Bulldogs’ KenPom rank nearly 100 spots in 2019-20, from a preseason 325th to a 234th finish. Bryant was much better than expected last year thanks to Grasso’s leadership and recruiting – he addressed major defensive issues that held this team back in 2018-19 and now looks to have the program on an upward trajectory after just two seasons at the helm. The long-time Tim Cluess assistant is garnering a lot of buzz around the college basketball world – he’s just 40 years old and seems poised to be picked off by a higher-level program in the near future.
Bryant loses 2nd Team All-NEC guard Adam Grant and All-Rookie Team member Benson Lin, among many others, but Grasso brings in the best transfer class in the conference and returns his defensive anchor plus two talented sophomore guards. Shooting will be the biggest improvement point offensively for the Bulldogs in 2020-21 – they lose their only two players to shoot over 30% from downtown last season and come off a year in which they ranked 9th in the NEC in 3P%. Bryant relies on the three-point line to score, shooting triples at a top 50 national rate, so bringing in shooting was a priority for Grasso this offseason. The Bulldogs’ other two primary scoring avenues – the offensive glass and transition – should be largely unchanged from 2019-20.
Newcomers Peter Kiss and Chris Childs are sure bets to make immediate impacts not only on shooting but also everywhere else offensively. Likewise, freshmen Erickson Bans and Kai Kostmayer and transfers Luke Sutherland and Luis Hurtado bring much-needed shooting to the fold as well. Kiss comes to Bryant by way of Rutgers after earning All-Rookie Team honors in the MAAC with Quinnipoac many moons ago. It’s not every day that you see a player who started 12 games for a Big Ten school transfer to an NEC school, but that’s what Bryant has in Kiss this season. He’ll be a scoring weapon on the wing and a contender for an All-Conference spot in 2020-21. Childs could have a very similar impact to that of Kiss – he was a 2nd Team NJCAA All-American last season and actually won his conference’s Player of the Year award over teammate Tyon Grant-Foster (the #1 JUCO recruit and Kansas commit). Childs comes in as the 36th ranked JUCO prospect in the land and brings with him a super skilled and smooth game. Last year, the 6’2” combo guard hit a whopping 45% of his triples on a high volume.
Bans was the Rhode Island Gatorade Player of the Year and is the all-time leading HS scorer in Rhode Island history. He might end up being a recruiting steal for Grasso – despite being just 5’11” he can score on anyone at anytime and is in range when he walks into the gym. His game is sort of like a poor man’s Trae Young (that’s probably a tired comparison, but just think small guard who can and will take and make shots from anywhere). Kostmayer averaged 30 PPG and 10 RPG in his post graduate year last season; he’s a tough scoring forward who can stretch the floor. Sutherland is a Siena transfer, a big wing who can shoot. Hurtado is a wing transfer from UAB, a former top 150 recruit who overcame a battle with cancer just over a year ago.
Grasso’s two returning backcourt members are Michael Green III and Charles Pride. Green III was the NEC’s Rookie of the Year in 2019-20 after starting 20 games for the Bulldogs and ranking 4th in the league in assist rate. The high-usage lead ball handler will need to improve his turnover rate and outside shooting numbers in year two, but he’s a clear talent who should fight for All-NEC honors this season. Pride is an excellent rebounding wing (5th in the NEC in OR% last year) who has a knack for getting to the basket with his strength. Kiss and Childs’s arrivals might relegate Pride to a sixth man role of sorts, but he’ll still have a profound impact on the lineup in 2020-21.
JUCO transfer Darius Guinn should also be a key factor in Grasso’s rotation. The top 125 JUCO recruit is a big wing who does a little bit of everything on the floor. Freshman PG Joe Moon IV has stiff playing time competition in the backcourt, but he could be a serviceable ball handler down the road.
Returning in the frontcourt is pretty much the sole reason Bryant went from the worst defensive team in the NEC in 2018-19 to the 4th best in 2019-20. Hall Elisias arrived from the JUCO ranks last season and brought with him his ridiculous shot-blocking ability and athleticism. Per Hoop Lens, with Elisias on the court last season the Bulldogs allowed just 0.85 PPP, which is an elite number that would’ve ranked somewhere near the top of the country if achieved throughout the entire year.
Info per Hoop Lens
Offensively, Elisias gives Bryant a legit rebounder, post scorer, and lob threat on every possession. He plays much bigger than his 6’8” height suggests and promises to be one of the most impactful big men in the NEC this season.
Sophomore Nathaniel Stokes and Arkansas State transfer Melo Eggleston round out the frontcourt rotation and rest of the Bryant roster. Eggleston should compete for starts this year at the 4 (despite curiously being listed as a guard on the official Bryant roster); he’s a former top 150 recruit who began his career at Wake Forest before transferring to Arkansas State. With the Red Wolves Eggleston was a high usage player who ranked 2nd in the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding rate. Like Kiss and Childs, Eggleston is another Bryant newcomer with legitimate All-Conference aspirations.
As mentioned, Bryant’s defense was good last season – in fact, it’s the best it’s ever been in the school’s Division I history dating back to 2008-09. The Bulldogs played the 31st most zone in the country last year, a 2-3 variety that gives up a lot of outside looks but one that still bothers shooters. NEC opponents shot just 30.9% from downtown against Bryant last season, either a consequence of luck or the Bulldogs’ athletic perimeter. And while Bryant allowed plenty of looks near the rim last season, Elisias’s presence in the paint made it incredibly difficult to score down there. This year Bryant should be quicker and more athletic on the perimeter, and it will still have the best shot blocker in the league in Elisias.
Bottom Line: Bryant has the talent to compete for an NEC title this season. Grasso appears to be a fantastic coach capable of leading his program to that level, he’ll just need his newcomers to greatly improve upon what was an underwhelming 2019-20 offensive attack.
3. LIU
Key Returners: Ty Flowers, Jermaine Jackson Jr., Virshon Cotton, Jack Ballantyne, Eral Penn
Key Losses: Raiquan Clark, Julian Batts, Jashaun Agosto, Ashtyn Bradley
Key Newcomers: Tre Wood (Massachusetts), Alex Rivera (UMass Lowell), Kyndall Davis, Noble Crawford, Anthony Kabala, Jake Cook
Lineup:
Outlook: Derek Kellogg and the newly branded LIU Sharks had real expectations last season. Most publications, including ours and the official media poll, tabbed LIU and its five returning starters as the NEC favorites. Alas, whether due to injuries or simple underachievement, the Sharks failed to live up to those lofty expectations and finished smack dab in the middle of the league. Interestingly, Kellogg has been nothing but consistent during his three years from an analytical and conference standing perspective. In three seasons the Sharks have finished 267th, 263rd, and 259th in KenPom and 9-9, 9-9, and 10-8 in NEC play. This season will be another in which expectations abound for the Sharks to compete near the top of the league – they lose All-Conference wing Raiquan Clark but return three starters and add two impact transfers to the fold.
Clark’s graduation seems damning on the surface for a team that finished 265th in the country in offensive efficiency, but oddly enough LIU didn’t perform worse when the star was off the floor. Per Hoop Lens, LIU scored the exact same points per possession when Clark played as when Clark sat, a curious statistical phenomenon considering Clark led the NEC in usage and was a very ball dominant presence in the LIU lineup. His departure will clear the way for Ty Flowers, a 2nd Team All-NEC Team member last season who impacts the game on both ends of the floor. Flowers will become the go-to guy in Kellogg’s high-octane offense; he’s a versatile player who can play the 3, 4, or 5.
LIU runs like the hell on offense – nearly every single rebound, steal, or made bucket leads to a transition opportunity, where the height-challenged Sharks look to catch their opponents back-pedaling in the open floor. In 2019-20, LIU ranked 10th in the country in percentage of initial FGA in transition.
In the halfcourt Kellogg spaces the floor, often employing 4-out and 5-out looks, in an effort to find open three-point looks. His squad led the NEC and ranked 25th nationally in 3PA rate and also found success driving to the cup and finding contact for trips to the foul line. The system won’t change in 2020-21, it will just have a new engine without the presence of Clark.
Defensively is where Flowers really impacts the game, so much so it’s defensible to call him LIU’s most valuable player in 2019-20. Take a look at these on/off splits from Flowers last season:
Info per Hoop Lens
Without Flowers on the floor last season, LIU became an ATROCIOUS defensive squad – Flowers’s versatility really shines on this end. Like his offense, Kellogg’s defensive system shouldn’t change much from last year. The Sharks will throw in some 2-2-1 full-court trapping press, 2-3 half-court matchup zone, and straight man looks to force their opponents off balance. LIU likes to force opponents to play fast – sometimes that results in good things like turnovers, other times it results in bad things like easy transition buckets. Kellogg brought in more size this offseason to sure up what was one of LIU’s greatest defensive weaknesses. The Sharks should be better on this end in 2020-21.
LIU’s backcourt this season could feature a dynamic dual-PG with the return of Jermaine Jackson Jr. and addition of Tre Wood. Jackson started 13 of LIU’s final 14 games last season after coming over from Detroit and turned in a fine year. He ranked 9th in the NEC in assist rate and shot 36.2% from behind the arc. With Jashaun Agosto out of the picture, Jackson should be the featured ball handler – his ability to score out of the pick-n-roll and limit turnovers make him a valuable asset. Wood started four games for UMass as a freshman prior to opting to transfer. He can play on the ball but is also comfortable on the wing where he can do damage from distance.
6’2” guard Virshon Cotton and 6’1” UMass Lowell import Alex Rivera will compete with Wood and each other for starting minutes. Cotton is a dynamic three-point bomber who’s a career 35.6% three-point shooter. He has quick hands defensively and has the potential to break out into a more scoring-centric role this season. Rivera started just two games for the River Hawks as a freshman in 2018-19 but reached double-figures in scoring a whopping 17 times off the bench. Kellogg can use him in the starting five or as instant offense off the pine.
In the frontcourt, look for Eral Penn to re-enter the lineup after missing all of last season due to an arm injury. Penn enjoyed a very efficient 2018-19 in which he ranked 3rd in the NEC and 45th nationally in O-rating. Despite his size, Penn is a skilled post scorer, ferocious offensive rebounder, and excellent shot blocker – two years ago he ranked 4th in the league in block rate. His presence will relieve some pressure defensively off Flowers.
Jack Ballantyne and Ousmane Ndim will compete for time behind Penn and Flowers. Ballantyne is a stretch forward who threw up 18 points and grabbed 12 boards against Wagner on February 27th. Ndim is a 7-foot shot-blocker.
Kellogg added four wings from the class of 2020, all of whom bring much-needed size to the table. Kyndall Davis is a long wing out of Chicago who possesses a decent outside stroke and plus athleticism. His biggest impact should come on the defensive end where his length will be bothersome to opponents across multiple positions. Fellow 6’5” wing Noble Crawford is a ridiculous athlete who can handle the ball a little – he might need a little polish offensively, but the physical tools are there. 6’8” wing Anthony Kabala is labeled by some as a point-forward; he could have the biggest impact with his ability to handle the ball, pass, score off the bounce, and guard 2-4. Finally, Jake Cook is a 3-star PF who can shoot from deep or finish inside with a deft touch. He’s not overly strong nor athletic, but he finds ways to put the ball in the basket.
Bottom Line: LIU is on the shortlist this season of teams who can capture an NEC title. Kellogg has yet to lead his Sharks to a top three conference finish, something no doubt a bit disappointing to a coach of his stature who has absolutely had the requisite talent to do so in years past.
4. Mount Saint Mary’s
Key Returners: Damian Chong Qui, Jalen Gibbs, Nana Opoku, Malik Jefferson, Naim Miller, Chidozie Collin Nnamene, Jalen Jefferson
Key Losses: Vado Morse, Omar Habwe, Brandon Leftwich
Key Newcomers: Mezie Offurum (George Washington), Josh Reaves, Quinton Mincey, Dakota Leffew, Frantisek Barton, Deandre Thomas (Samford)***
*** Thomas needs a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Mount Saint Mary’s showed a marked improvement in Dan Engelstad’s second season at the helm. The Mountaineers were left gutted when Jamion Christian bolted for Siena, ranking 350th in returning minutes and 352nd in experience in 2018-19. Last season, the Mount ranked 6th in returning minutes but was still one of the 50 youngest squads in the country – that inexperience ultimately held it back from making a bigger jump up the NEC standings. This year Engelstad appears to have a team capable of competing near the top of the league – he returns four upperclassmen starters and adds a couple new faces to the cause. Christian had this program competing for an NEC title every season – Engelstad hopes to match that success starting in 2020-21.
The most intriguing thing to watch early this coming season will be what Engelstad decides to do offensively from a tempo perspective. Blue Ribbon’s Ryan Peters quoted Engelstad in his NEC preview saying he wants to play fast. Engelstad played a very uptempo style of basketball at Southern Vermont, but he’s yet to roll that out at Mount Saint Mary’s. In fact, last season was the exact opposite of ramping up tempo, as the Mountaineers played at the slowest offensive tempo in the NEC and the 13th slowest in the country. Engelstad has the horses to play fast in 2020-21; he has a stable of athletic guards and mobile bigs capable of running the floor and scoring in transition.
Offense wasn’t awful in Emmitsburg last season – the ‘Neers handled the ball well, held their own on the offensive glass, and got to the foul line at the second highest rate in the league. Shooting held them back, however, as the Mount couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn from just about anywhere on the floor. The Mount was the most zoned team in the country last year – part of that was due to being in the NEC, but another part was due to their lack of shooting across the roster.
With similar personnel as last season, it’s not likely we see a GIANT improvement on the offensive end, but there is reason to expect MSM’s offense to be better in 2020-21. For starters, ramping up tempo should help this team score, especially with lightning quick PG Damian Chong Qui leading the way. Additionally, this team is suddenly stacked with upperclassmen who should have the poise and wherewithal to take good shots and make good decisions on the offensive end of the floor.
Chong Qui was the Most Improved Player in the NEC last season and a 3rd Team All-Conference performer. He limited turnovers while posting the 6th best assist rate in the league and improved his 3P% from 26.7% as a freshman to 37% last year. At just 5’8”, Chong Qui gets anywhere he wants on the floor – defenders simply cannot stay in front of the junior dynamo; he should lead this team in scoring and lock up another All-NEC spot by the end of the season.
Jalen Gibbs will start alongside Chong Qui in the backcourt – he’s started all 61 games of his MSM career and provides a steady scoring complement to Engelstad’s star guard. The third staring spot on the perimeter is entirely up for grabs. If Samford transfer Deandre Thomas is granted a waiver, he should be a regular starter all season. Thomas started 24 games for the Bulldogs last year and can provide scoring from the wing on offense and versatility on defense. Sophomore Naim Miller will also have a shot at starting minutes, though he shot very poorly his freshman season. Freshman Josh Reaves is a good bet to start if Thomas is denied a waiver; he was excellent in a post-grad year at South Kent (big-name HS program) and is a dynamic, athletic, strong wing with a college-ready frame and a good-looking jumper. Fellow freshman Dakota Leffew, a wing shooter who can handle the ball, likely won’t crack the rotation in his first season.
Engelstad’s frontcourt is deep this season – he has three surefire contributors who can be successful in the NEC plus another forward who could contribute if all goes well with injury recovery. Malik Jefferson and Nana Opoku should continue to form the primary starting frontcourt after starting together last season. Jefferson is an excellent rebounder and post finisher, but is also unfortunately one of the worst free throw shooters in the country. At 6’9” 230 lbs. Jefferson has no trouble backing down opposing NEC forwards – he’ll find favorable position on the block more often than not. Opoku is one of the best shot-blockers in the NEC, ranking in the top three in block rate each of the past two seasons. Like Jefferson, Opoku is an excellent offensive rebounder, but he’s far more perimeter oriented than his frontcourt counterpart. Per Hoop-Math, in 2019-20 Opoku attempted just 49.1% of his total shots near the rim while Jefferson attempted 73.2% of his shots from that distance.
Backing up the returning frontcourt duo will be George Washington transfer Mezie Offurum and 6’9” junior Chidozie Collin Nnamene. Offurum received a waiver this offseason to play right away – he brings more rebounding, strength, and a touch of outside shooting to the fold. Nnamene tore his ACL in January after starting seven games; his greatest value is his shot-blocking ability. Curiously, Engelstad started Opoku, Jefferson, and Nnamene seven times together last year – why? I have no idea. That lineup combination managed to score just 0.87 PPP per Hoop Lens (though the defense did excel).
Rounding out the Mount roster and frontcourt rotation are Malik’s twin Jalen Jefferson and freshmen Quinton Mincey and Frantisek Barton. None of the three likely see a ton of run this season, but Mincey especially has potential for big things down the road. He’s a super long forward with good athleticism and promising defensive potential
Bottom Line: This is the year the Mount could finally run back up the NEC standings. MSM will be one of the more experienced squads in the league, and it has depth at every position on the floor. Defense will need to improve for the Mountaineers to truly make strides, but that’s possible with a little opponent outside shooting regression, as well as the collective squad getting one year older.
Tier 2
5. St. Francis PA
Key Returners: Myles Thompson, Tyler Stewart, Mark Flagg, Ramiir Dixon-Conover, Bryce Laskey
Key Losses: Keith Braxton, Isaiah Blackmon, Randall Gaskins, Deivydas Kuzavas, Scott Meredith
Key Newcomers: Maxwell Land, Ronell Giles Jr., Zahree Harrison, Jeriah Coleman, Josh Cohen (Redshirt), Luke Ruggery (Redshirt), Marlon Hargis (Holy Cross)***
*** Hargis needs a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Last season was St. Francis (PA)’s best since the program crashed the NCAA Tournament in 1991. Rob Krimmel has done excellent work at the helm in Loretto, building a competitive NEC program after years and years of hopelessness. Though his Red Flash finished 2nd in the NEC in 2019-20, they were by far the best team in the league per KenPom; they just couldn’t quite get past that new pesky Merrimack squad. SFU had the luxury last year of sending out the two best players on the floor in nearly every conference matchup – Isaiah Blackmon took home Player of the Year hardware and Keith Braxton etched his name on the All-Conference 1st Team. With those two stars gone SFU almost certainly takes a step back in 2020-21. Krimmel has led his Red Flash to four straight double-digit win seasons in the NEC, but he faces a significant challenge to get to five.
SFU’s offense is in for a seismic shift in 2020-21 without Blackmon and Braxton leading the way. Both were ball-dominant guards who combined to use nearly half of SFU’s total possessions when on the floor. The Red Flash attack was very good last season (81st in the country per KenPom, 1st in the NEC), but it was a direct result of how good those two players were. Shooting becomes a concern with their graduation – B&B combined to shoot 57% of SFU’s total 3PA, and the Red Flash took threes at the lowest rate in the NEC. Transition should still be a major focal point of the offense, as the Flash still have plenty of speed and athleticism on the roster. Additionally, with a fully intact frontcourt, the offensive glass and shots in the key should also be primary sources of scoring in 2020-21.
Neither Braxton nor Blackmon can be described as excellent defenders, but both players were factors in SFU’s turnover forcing efforts. The Flash won in spite of their defense last season, ranking just 7th in the NEC in adjusted efficiency and 290th in the country. Bad luck was baked into this ranking – opposing teams shot a league best 75.5% from the FT line against them – but lack of resistance in the interior was the primary culprit of their defensive futility. Krimmel should continue mixing in full-court press looks (mainly man traps and token pressure) along with 2-3 zone in the halfcourt – SFU pressed and zoned at top 75 national rates in 2019-20.
So who replaces the dynamic duo in the backcourt? Well, unfortunately, nobody really can. While Krimmel still has talent in the backcourt, there’s not a soul on this roster who can score and create like Blackmon and Braxton. Senior Ramiir Dixon-Conover will be asked to takeover full-time point guard duties – he’s talented but also extremely erratic. In two seasons Dixon-Conover has posted turnover rates of 37.8% and 35.6%. He’ll be asked to create more this season, particularly in the open floor, so those type of TO rates cannot happen if SFU is to be successful.
The starting 2-guard spot is wide open this season. Sophomore guard and former walk-on Bryce Laskey could see major minutes there due to his outside shooting ability – last year he canned 42.3% of his long-ball attempts. If he isn’t given the starting nod, Krimmel likely goes with one of his four freshman guards – Maxwell Land, Ronell Giles Jr., Zahree Harrison, or Luke Ruggery. Land is the most college-ready from a physical standpoint; he’s a freak athlete who could be a terror in the open floor. Giles is a 6’4” point guard and gifted athlete – he has enough shooting ability to play in an off-ball role. Harrison is a strong lead guard who plays aggressively and in control. Ruggery can also run the point and provide shooting on the perimeter.
SFU’s frontcourt situation is far more certain. Returners Tyler Stewart, Myles Thompson, and Mark Flagg should start at the 3, 4, and 5, respectively, all season long. Stewart is a long wing who came over from Binghamton prior to last year. He can drive, shoot, score from all three levels, grab rebounds, and provide versatility on the defensive end. Thompson is the squad’s leading returning scorer and rebounder; he’ll be counted on heavily to step-up this year into a more prominent offensive role. The stretchy forward hit 34.8% of his 3PA last season and can score on the block in post-up situations. Flagg will continue to be SFU’s rock inside – he’s ranked in the top three of the NEC in OR% three straight seasons and ranked 4th in the conference in block rate in 2019-20. Offensively, Flagg possesses tremendous footwork on the block.
Krimmel’s frontcourt rotational pieces include junior Chukwu “Precious” Ikediashi, redshirt freshman Josh Cohen, and true freshman Jeriah Coleman. Ikediashi is strictly a “boards and blocks” big – he offers little on the offensive end of the floor. Cohen grew 10 inches in HS and should find time in some capacity off the bench with his toughness and scoring chops. Coleman is a raw, skinny 7-footer who needs time to develop before he can contribute on a regular basis. Marlon Hargis, a versatile wing transfer from Holy Cross, could play a key role off the pine if granted a waiver.
Bottom Line: SFU is hard to peg this season. On one hand the Flash lose two of the three best players in the NEC, each of whom doubled as two of the best players in program history. Blackmon and Braxton accounted for 47% of SFU’s scoring and were the life blood of the school for the past four years. On the other hand Krimmel has proven he’s among the top coaches in this league; he’s built this program up from nothing and still has enough talent with which to compete in the upper-half of the NEC.
6. Merrimack
Key Returners: Mikey Watkins, Devin Jensen, Ziggy Reid, Jordan Minor, Mykel Derring, Jordan McKoy
Key Losses: Juvaris Hayes, Jaleel Lord, Idris Joyner
Key Newcomers: James Berry III, Ryan Isaacson, Ethan Helwig (Redshirt), Jaylen Davis (Redshirt)
** Edmead plans to redshirt
Lineup:
Outlook: Merrimack was last year’s toast of the town among low-major Division I college basketball. In their first season at the adult table the Warriors won the NEC outright despite being picked dead last in the conference’s preseason poll. Merrimack’s non-conference performance was also a mini-adventure in itself, as the Warriors began their DI careers getting trounced by Maine of all teams by a whopping 20 points, only to follow that game up with a road win at Northwestern two days later. Head coach Joe Gallo accomplished what he did with defense – the Warriors played a relentless zone not commonly seen in the DI landscape that drove their #1 NEC Adj. DE ranking.
Every season I write a “Lopsided Lovelies” article that highlights teams with stark dichotomies on either end of the floor. Merrimack was one of the most “lopsided” teams in 2019-20, ranking 325th in country (10th in the NEC) in offense and 101st in defense. Gallo spends a ton of time teaching defense in practice and has formed a system that potentially could weather any roster turnover ala the Virginia and Texas Techs of the world.
Before diving into Merrimack’s defense let’s quickly touch on its offense, which was objectively bad in 2019-20. The Warriors’ offensive style pretty much boils down to “shoot threes and pray” – Merrimack ranked 3rd in the NEC in both 3PA rate and 3P% last season and did basically everything else at a below-average level. Gallo ensures his team takes high-quality shots (threes and layups if they can get them) but overall talent held them back from producing much offensively in 2019-20. Additionally, Merrimack’s lack of size plus its focus on getting back defensively pretty much nuked any chance for competence on the offensive glass. Gallo sends just two guys to the boards on offense and sends the other three back to deter transition opportunities. Merrimack’s two best shooters return this season, but it’s unlikely we see a major improvement on this end in 2020-21.
Now onto the defense where we will spend a little more time. I was lucky to catch Gallo’s NABC webinar back in May in which he talked about his defensive philosophy and how it creates steals. Merrimack ranked #1 in the country in steal rate last season (#3 in TO rate), which was driven by a defense that is constantly stunting, moving, and talking. Departed guard Juvaris Hayes himself posted an insane 6.5% steal rate and nearly 4 steals per game, but even his absence doesn’t preclude the Warriors from being dominant on this end once again.
Gallo said he likes playing zone because opposing teams rarely practice against them – essentially, his team is at an advantage because they’re executing their #1 defense while their opponents are executing their #2 offense. Unlike most zones around the country, Merrimack’s is extremely in-your-face and active; its goal is to force its opponents into taking shots they don’t want to take (i.e. tough twos). There is a high focus on taking away threes and uncontested layups, and one of Gallo’s tenets on this end is that “nobody shoots where they catch”.
This constant activeness leads to turnovers, and Merrimack’s laser focus on denying threes helps boost their overall defensive efficiency. “High hands” is something Gallo continuously preaches and something he even practices consistently on the sidelines.
The bottom line is this team’s defensive prowess isn’t going anywhere – so even though you see a roster losing two key players from an offense that was one of the 30 worst in the nation, rest assured Merrimack can still compete near the top of the league.
Mikey Watkins will be counted on to take over full-time PG reins with Hayes’s graduation. Watkins is one of the few “creators” on this squad, a guy who can get his own shot and penetrate and kick for others. Defensively, Watkins will also be the steal leader of the team after ranking 29th nationally and 4th in the NEC in steal rate last season. On the few occasions MC actually got out in transition last year, Watkins was excellent finishing plays from a PPP perspective.
Wing shooters Devin Jensen, Mykel Derring, and Khalief Crawford will compete for starts alongside Watkins. Jensen is a lock to start on the perimeter after starting every game in 2019-20 and posting a 43.3% clip from downtown. He’s a good candidate to lead this team in scoring, but it’s all going to come from beyond the arc, as last year Jensen attempted 141 threes to just 26 twos and 11 free throws. Derring is also primarily an outside shooter, though he does offer more off the bounce than Jensen. Crawford was a regular starter for MC prior to their jump to Division I, so expect him to get back into the rotation in his senior season.
Elsewhere in the backcourt Jordan McKoy, James Berry III, Ethan Helwig, and Jaylen Davis round out the remaining potential guard rotation. McKoy is a long, athletic defensive guard who could start and combine with Watkins to form an intimidating frontline of the MC zone. Berry III, a freshman wing out of Virginia, has the length to be a potential defensive factor in the near future. Helwig and Davis both took redshirts last season; they’ll add shooting in deeper reserve roles.
Merrimack’s starting frontcourt will likely be made up of a pair of sophomores in Jordan Minor and Ziggy Reid. Minor was MC’s highest used player when he saw the floor last season; he’s an excellent rebounder, capable inside scorer, good shot blocker, and gifted passer. As one of the few “big guys” on this roster, Minor could fill a major role and have himself a little breakout campaign in 2020-21. Reid has room to grow in his second season; he was efficient from deep last year but not so much inside the arc. On the defensive end Reid’s versatility and athleticism makes him a valuable disruptor.
Junior forward (maybe redshirt sophomore? Reports are different!) Justin Connolly and freshman forward Ryan Isaacson round out the MC frontcourt rotation. Connolly should see minutes at the 5 while Isaacson should get some cracks at the 4 in his first season. Isaacson is a well-regarded recruit out of Illinois and is a stretch-4 of sorts, able to knock down outside shots and put the ball on the deck.
Bottom Line: There is a clear lack of individual talent on this roster but having individual talent doesn’t always result in winning ball games. Joe Gallo has one of the most unique and effective defensive systems in the country and that alone should allow his team to compete in the thick of the NEC for a second straight season.
7. Wagner
Key Returners: Alex Morales, Will Martinez, Elijah Ford, Nigel Jackson, Chase Freeman, Ja’Mier Fletcher
Key Losses: Curtis Cobb, Tyrone Nesby, Darion Jordan-Thomas, Patrick Szpir
Key Newcomers: Justin Brown (Chattanooga), DeLonnie Hunt, Elijah Allen, Jordan Mason (Redshirt), Ashton Miller (Duquesne)***
*** Miller needs a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Wagner has been in unfamiliar territory the past two seasons. After finishing in the top three of the NEC standings five out of Bashir Mason’s first six seasons, the Seahawks have been downright awful. Last year was the worst Wagner squad since 2010, partially due to a myriad of injuries across the roster and extreme roster turnover from 2018-19. Mason has more stability this season with a good chunk of his core returning plus the addition of some promising newcomers, but this still doesn’t feel like a Wagner team of yore.
One common characteristic that has bled through to all of Mason’s Seahawks squads is the heavy focus on crashing the offensive glass. Wagner has ranked in the national top 10 of OR% twice in Mason’s tenure, the top 20 four times, and the top 70 seven times. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, owning the boards was about the only thing they did right on offense in 2019-20. Wagner was an awful outside shooting team and ranked dead last in the NEC in FT rate, a tough combination not often seen across the country. Mason continued playing at his slowed-down tempo, as he had for the four seasons prior following three years in which his teams looked to run, run, run. He has the horsepower in the backcourt to return to his running ways this season, but it’s uncertain whether he shifts back to that style.
Wagner’s defense last year was also no help to its winning efforts, ranking 10th in the NEC in adjusted efficiency and bottom-15 in the nation. Opposing teams shot 38.9% from deep against the Seahawks (4th best in the country), which was magnified by Wagner allowing a crap ton of three-point looks. Wagner played a lot of zone (30th most nationally) and pressed at a high rate (41st nationally), but opposing teams picked them apart like I pick off red onions on barbecue chicken pizza. Opponent makes were assisted a whopping 62.6% of the time in NEC play, by FAR the highest number in the conference. Additionally, because the Seahawks were so gung-ho on the offensive glass they were often torched in the open floor in transition. Poor offense + poor defense = poor results.
Mason returns a solid senior guard foursome in Alex Morales, Will Martinez, Elijah Ford, and Chase Freeman. Morales was the 3rd highest used player in the NEC last season and the Seahawks’ 2nd leading scorer. He wasn’t terribly inefficient in a high-volume role but did post below-average shooting percentages from inside the arc and the FT line while shooting a respectable 34.8% from deep. Morales will be counted on for scoring and shooting – he’s one of the few Wagner players who can consistently create his own shot, and he was one of just two players on the team to shoot over 33% from three in 2019-20. Martinez is another big, long wing with a similar build to Morales. He mostly came off the bench last season but still managed to rank 2nd in the NEC in assist rate and 3rd in steal rate. While not much of a scorer, Martinez is valuable on the defensive end where his length allows him to guard multiple spots. Ford is much more of a wing (and really a forward) than a 1 or 2-guard. He’s a strong slasher who ranked 9th in the NEC in OR% and 8th in FT rate last year. Freeman should be a lock to start at either point or SG – his biggest improvement mission this season will be outside shooting. Despite canning 91% of his FTA in 2019-20, Freeman was an ugly 27.7% from the land of plenty.
Wagner will be objectively much, much deeper than last season. Mason has plenty of options on the perimeter in addition to the foursome mentioned above, and it’s highly likely we see him toy with a variety of lineups. Atiba Taylor and Jordan Mason missed the entire season due to injury, but both could contribute in 2020-21. Mason particularly has a good outside stroke and is a sizable wing at 6’4” 205 lbs. Freshmen DeLonnie Hunt and Elijah Allen could play major roles in the rotation in their first collegiate seasons. Hunt is an extremely athletic point guard who can make plays with his dynamism off the bounce. Allen was the Delaware Player of the Year last season; he’s a smart combo guard with plenty of swagger to his game, an excellent shooter from deep and a surefire scoring contributor. Duquesne transfer Ashton Miller will need a waiver to play immediately – he’ll add even more size to the perimeter as well as shooting (though he was only 3/28 from deep as a freshman for the Dukes).
Wagner’s frontcourt is thinner than its backcourt, but Mason still has plenty of bodies to turn to in addition to playing guys like Ford or Morales at the 4 in smaller looks. Nigel Jackson missed over half the year with injury last season; he’s a stretch forward who posted a solid block rate as a junior. Ja’Mier Fletcher also missed half of the year due to injury; he’s a strong forward capable of ripping down rebounds at high rates. 6’11” sophomore DeAndre Wilkins is the tallest player on the roster; he’ll take a backseat to Chattanooga transfer Justin Brown in the rotation but could still see spot minutes. Brown likely starts at the 5; he brings shot-blocking and rebounding to the fold.
Bottom Line: Wagner was ravaged by injuries in 2019-20, which, in addition to a general lack of talent, spelled doom for their NEC relevancy. This season the Seahawks should be an improved team – they’ll be deeper, more experienced , and more talented than last year. Does that mean we should expect to see Wagner in the top five of the NEC standings? No, even with Mason’s strong history at the program there’s too much missing still for me to think that level of improvement is achievable.
8. St. Francis Brooklyn
Key Returners: Chauncey Hawkins, Unique McLean, Rob Higgins, Yaradyah Evans, Stevan Krtinic, Jordan Williams, Larry Moreno
Key Losses: Deniz Celen, Rosel Hurley, Milija Cosic, Christian Rohlehr
Key Newcomers: Travis Atson (Quinnipiac), Rheaquone Taylor (JUCO), Vuk Stevanic (JUCO), David Muenkat (JUCO), Elijah Hardison
Lineup:
Outlook: Glenn Braica heads into his 11th season as head coach of the St. Francis Brooklyn Terriers looking to turn his program’s fortune around. The dichotomy in success between Braica’s first five seasons at the school and the last five is stark – SFC has been a demonstrably worse program in recent years.
Last year’s 13-18 (7-11) mark was just another notch on the sub-par belt; SFC scored some key wins in conference play but also lost a myriad of head scratchers. 2020-21 brings hope for improvement with a three-headed backcourt monster capable of filling up the scoresheet on a nightly basis. Frontcourt play as well as shooting will need to improve if the Terriers are to finally compete for an NEC title again.
Offense has suffered under Braica the past several years. The Terriers were the league’s worst 3P shooting team (28.1%) and settled for way too many inefficient two-point jumpers early in the clock. Curiously, SFC led the NEC in FT%, a stat almost never seen when combined with an atrocious 3P%. This suggests there’s hope for massive improvement in that area in 2020-21. Braica’s squad should continue to be one of the fastest teams in the NEC, a squad that looks to score in transition behind the quickness of lead guard Chauncey Hawkins. In the half-court, look for Braica to continue his ball-screen heavy spread attack.
Defensively, SFC ranked 6th in the NEC in adjusted efficiency thanks to its league-leading block rate, clamp down on three-point opportunities, and emphasis on forcing opponents to beat them off the bounce in isolation situations. Two key shot-blockers depart this offseason but SFC should have the returning firepower and requisite incoming recruits to make up for that loss and maintain its defensive standing within conference play.
Shooting has to improve this season, and that starts with Chauncey Hawkins and Rob Higgins, who shot 25.2% and 26.3% from downtown while leading the team in 3PFGA. Hawkins, a 3rd Team All-NEC selection last season, is a career 27.9% 3P shooter on 287 attempts, so it’s unlikely he gets any better – he’ll just need to shift his focus to taking higher quality shots. The 5’8” point guard is excellent everywhere else offensively – he ranked 7th in the NEC in assist rate, 6th in FT rate, and was incredibly hard to stop off ball screens and in the open floor. Higgins’s 89.7% FT% in NEC play suggests he’s due for a major uptick in three-point efficiency – his stroke is pure and in no way implies he should be shooting in the sub-30s. Higgins was an NEC All-Rookie Team member last season; he led all NEC freshmen in scoring and, like Hawkins, was deadly off ball screens in 2019-20.
Unique McLean, a former UMass transfer, is the third head of the three-headed backcourt monster. He’s a “unique” player in that he’s one of the best rebounders in the NEC despite standing just 6’2”. In 2019-20 McLean ranked in the top ten in rebounding rate in the conference on both ends of the floor and ranked 6th in RPG. Like Higgins and Hawkins, McLean desperately needs to improve his outside shot – he too shot under 30% from behind the arc last season.
Braica’s starting frontcourt will be comprised of a combination of returning forwards Yaradyah Evans and Stevan Krtinic, Quinnipiac transfer Travis Atson, and JUCO imports Rheaquone Taylor, Vuk Stevanic, and David Muenkat. Evans started 30 games last season almost entirely due to his versatility on the defensive end. He racks up blocks and steals on this side of the court and had ranked in the top five of the NEC in DR% each of the past two seasons. Offensively, Evans is a negative – he shot 29.6% from two and 27.7% from three last year. Krtinic is a better offensive option than Evans; he’s a stretch forward who is a better shooter than his percentages suggested last season.
Atson began his career at Tulsa prior to transferring to Quinnipiac where he started six games for the Bobcats. He can play the 3 or 4 and will add scoring on the wing. Taylor seems likely to nab the empty starting 5 spot. He played for Hutchinson CC, a big-time JUCO program, and is an active rebounder and skilled post scorer. Stevanic, a Serbian forward, will stretch the floor at the 4, while Muenkat will add freakish athleticism to the frontcourt.
Rounding out SFC’s roster is Jordan Williams, Larry Moreno, Trey Quartlebaum, and Elijah Hardison. Williams, Moreno, and Quartlebaum will fill deeper backcourt roles – all three are primarily shooters offensively. Hardison is a local Brooklyn kid who needs a couple years before he’s ready for the primetime. He has plenty of athletic potential and blocked 3.5 shots per game his senior year in HS.
Bottom Line: SFC has finished 6th in the NEC in adjusted offensive three of the past five seasons, so it seems highly unlikely this iteration of the Terriers can eclipse that ranking. The guards are certainly talented, and the shooting could vastly improve, but it’s hard to see that combination bringing last year’s 9th-rated NEC offense above the program’s historical five-year trends. Expect the Terriers to finish somewhere in the middle of the league for the fourth straight season.
9. Sacred Heart
Key Returners: Aaron Clarke, Tyler Thomas, Zach Radz
Key Losses: Koreem Ozier, Cameron Parker, EJ Anosike, Kinnon LaRose, Jare’l Spellman, Zach Pfaffenberger***
Key Newcomers: Cantavio Dutreil (JUCO), Quest Harris, Mike Sixsmith, Bryce Johnson, Nico Galette, Kasparas Jonauskas, Matas Spokas
*** Pfaffenberger will miss the season with injury
Lineup:
Outlook: Sacred Heart returns the fewest number of minutes in the NEC – and that’s before taking Zach Pfaffenberger, a potentially productive forward who tore his Achilles in October, out of the equation. Anthony Latina had an excellent team last season that competed for an NEC title and set the program single-season wins record. As has been the case across this conference for many years, transfers have decimated the Pioneers’ hopes for NEC contention in 2020-21. They lose four starters plus Cameron Parker, only two of which were due to graduation. Parker took his talents to Montana, Koreem Ozier went to UL Monroe, and EJ Anosike is now a Tennessee Vol. KenPom projects this iteration of Sacred Heart to be the worst in Latina’s 8-year tenure; the long-time head coach will be heavily reliant on freshmen for production.
Both ends of the floor are due for massive declines in efficiency unless Latina’s freshmen class proves to be much better than expected. Offensively, losing Parker, Ozier, Anosike, and Kinnon La Rose is detrimental to SHU’s scoring hopes. Additionally, Jare’l Spellman’s graduation takes away from one of the most successful Pioneer avenues of scoring in 2019-20: the offensive glass. Latina’s squads are always good on the boards, but his team last year took it to another level. SHU ranked 5th in the country in OR%, driven by Anosike and Spellman’s dominance. Without those two in the mix this season it’s highly unlikely SHU can maintain its stranglehold on the boards in the NEC.
Another thing to watch offensively will be SHU’s pace of play. Latina historically has had uptempo squads that prioritize scoring in transition. However, Latina’s “less talented” teams have played at more nationally average tempos, as was the case in 2019-20 when Parker went down with injury. This could be a more “half-court” team in 2020-21 that relies on rim attack and the three-point line to score buckets.
The defensive end is where Spellman’s absence is really going to be felt. Spellman was one of the best shot blockers in the league and anchored a defense that ranked 3rd in the NEC in adjusted efficiency. SHU dominated the glass on this end of the floor in conference play, as it did on offense, but without Spellman there’s some real question as to its ability to do so again. Latina will likely continue to apply his matchup 3-2 / 2-3 shifting zone look, a set he rolled out at a top 30 national rate in 2019-20.
Pfaffenberger was expected to help replace Anosike and Spellman’s production, but his injury leaves the frontcourt rotation wide open and extremely uncertain. JUCO transfer Cantavio Dutreil and freshmen Bryce Johnson and Nico Galette should form the primary three-man rotation, none of whom are proven commodities. Dutreil began his career at North Alabama where he started four games as a freshman and provided rebounding and rim protection in limited minutes. Last season in JUCO Dutreil averaged 8.8 RPG and 2.1 BPG, so there’s reason to hope he can be a source of glass-eating and shot-blocking at the 5 position. Galette probably has the advantage over Johnson towards starting the season at the 4. He’s athletic, has good size, can attack the rim off the bounce, and can even shoot from distance. Johnson is athletic as well and should see plenty of minutes alongside and in place of Galette throughout the year.
SHU’s go-to scorer and floor leader this season will likely be Aaron Clarke, a hefty 6’1” junior capable of running point or playing off the ball. Clarke scored 11.3 PPG last year despite sharing the floor with high usage teammates. He gets to the line with consistency and showed vast improvement in his outside shooting as a sophomore in 2019-20. For Sacred Heart to be successful, Clarke needs to be a reliable source of scoring on a nightly basis.
Tyler Thomas, Zach Radz, and Alex Watson round out the remaining returners from last year’s roster. Thomas turned in a solid freshman season and has gobs of potential to be a productive two-way wing. He’ll take a large step-up in usage offensively this season and be counted on to defend a multitude of positions. Radz sat out last season but played 29 games back in 2018-19. He’ll compete with incoming freshmen for starts this year and will be asked to provide shooting on the perimeter. Watson was seldomly used last season and likely remains in that role as a senior.
Latina has two promising freshman guards coming to Fairfield this season. Quest Harris, a quick lefty PG, can shoot and has a knack for getting to the rim with his crafty ball handling. He’ll be in the mix for playing time early on and has a bright future ahead of him. Mike Sixsmith is a money shooter who Latina appears to be extremely high on. It wouldn’t shock me to see Sixsmith start over Radz throughout the season.
Two Lithuanian wings round out Latina’s recruiting class. Kasparas Jonauskas and Matas Spokas are both skinny forwards who can shoot. Spokas has the better path towards playing time this season with his slightly bigger frame.
Bottom Line: Sacred Heart likely takes the biggest tumble down the NEC standings in 2020-21. There simply isn’t enough talent on the roster to expect the Pioneers to compete near the top of the league for a third straight year. Latina has certainly outperformed expectations before, but it’s hard to see this freshman class being better than his 2018 newcomers of Ozier, Parker, Spellman and Clarke.
Tier 3
10. Central Connecticut
Key Returners: Ian Krishnan, Greg Outlaw, Myles Baker, Jamir Reed, Xavier Wilson, Zach Newkirk, Karrington Wallace, Stephane Ayangma
Key Losses: Jamir Coleman, Tyler Rowe, Trey Tennyson
Key Newcomers: Tre Mitchell (JUCO), Nigel Scantlebury (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: I don’t want this to be a “bash the Blue Devils” preview, but it’s difficult to talk about Central Connecticut’s 2019-20 season in a positive light. It was a tough year for Donyell Marshall who labored through his worst season at the helm of CCSU since taking over for Howie Dickenman in 2016, but that was largely expected given the Blue Devils’ inexperience. CCSU was one of the five youngest teams in the country last season – the Devils used six freshmen and two sophomores heavily in a rotation that was affected greatly by injury throughout the year. On top of that, star guard Ian Krishnan missed the entire first semester of play due to an academic issue, which left the Devils without their leading scorer and floor general. All of this adversity could pay dividends for CCSU this season and beyond – the Devils are all of a sudden an experienced squad littered with athletic potential. While expectations of this team should absolutely still be tempered, improvement is all but a certainty in 2020-21.
CCSU was the worst team in the NEC on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Marshall kept playing his uptempo style for the consecutive season after slowing it down his first two years at the helm. The Devils shot well from behind the arc and from the FT line but piss poor shot selection from inside the arc, turnovers, and a severe lack of rebounding crushed any hope for efficiency on this end. CCSU ranked 351st in the country in FG% near the rim and 352nd in 2PFG% overall – no matter how good your outside shooting is, those two stats are impossible to overcome. With Krishnan fully back in the fold and a group of freshmen turning into sophomores the hope is that CCSU makes better decisions and takes better shots this season.
Defensively, CCSU pressed at a top 40 rate nationally, a trapping press that tried to force opposing ball handlers to cough up the rock. Lack of frontcourt size put the onus on the backcourt to apply pressure and stop the ball from getting in the paint, a good idea in theory but one that wasn’t executed well. Opposing teams got what they wanted against CCSU – rim looks and three-point looks were aplenty while inefficient mid-range jumpers weren’t settled for. The Devils were also burned in the open floor in transition and were by far the worst defensive rebounding team in the NEC. Does this improve in 2020-21? It *should* - again, experience should help tremendously on this end of the floor, as will sheer continuity of the roster. This is an athletic team with a bevy of long perimeter players; CCSU has the tools to be better on the defensive end this season.
Krishnan is the offensive life blood of this team. He was CCSU’s leading scorer last season and the only Blue Devil to post an O-rating above 97.0. The 6’2” can pull from just about anywhere on the court and last year ranked 5th in the NEC and 21st in the country in 3P percentage.
He’ll be the floor leader and one of just a handful of upperclassmen on the roster this season.
Marshall’s sophomore class is one reason to get excited about CCSU’s future. We at 3MW often fawn over freshman-to-sophomore leaps, particularly by those freshmen who played significantly the previous season. Four current-year sophomores played major minutes in 2019-20 and all of whom should be significant contributors in 2020-21. In the backcourt, Jamir Reed and Myles Baker will fight for starts after turning in relatively productive rookie seasons. Reed led the team in minutes and shot 35% from downtown. He’s a good rebounder for his size and a player who can guard 1-3 on the floor. Baker was the 2nd highest used player in the NEC last season and an All-Rookie Team honoree. He was used as a super-sub last year, providing scoring off the pine in a high-volume role. Baker is clearly talented, but he takes a lot of bad shots (something highlighted by Ryan Peters in his Blue Ribbon preview) – the 6’2” guard was an atrocious 31.8% from two and 32.7% from three last season. CCSU needs efficiency jumps from Reed and Baker to be remotely competitive in 2020-21.
On the wing/frontcourt area, sophomores Greg Outlaw and Xavier Wilson will compete to fill starting spots. Outlaw is a defensive asset with his strength and athleticism but needs to improve his offensive game. Wilson ranked 5th in the NEC in block rate and also showed off his ability to stretch the floor. His length and the roster’s lack of size will allow/force Wilson into playing a lot of 5 this season.
Returning upper-classmen Zach Newkirk, Karrington Wallace, and Stephane Ayangma should all have key roles this season once again, while sophomore Ola Olamuyiwa likely remains in his deeper bench role. Newkirk is the little brother of former Indiana PG Josh Newkirk – he started 24 games for CCSU last season but turned in a brutal 29.4% turnover that improved mildly in NEC play. Newkirk is a good outside shooter and table setter, but he’s in danger of losing his starting gig with the pair of JUCO transfers coming to town. Wallace will compete with Wilson for the starting 5 spot – he missed time to injury last year but, like Wilson, is a good rim protector and can really score in the post. Ayangma can shoot outside a bit, rebound, and provide some shot-blocking.
JUCO transfers Tre Mitchell and Nigel Scantlebury will both be in the mix for major minutes this season. Mitchell averaged 20.0 PPG at Phoenix College last year and is a good shooter who can score from anywhere on the court. While not his natural position, Mitchell is fully capable of running point for the Blue Devils. Scantlebury is a true PG who averaged 5.3 APG last year playing for John Beilein’s nephew at Niagara County CC. Marshall is high on Scantlebury’s potential as a calming presence at the top of the key and game manager.
Bottom Line: CCSU will be a better team this season but that doesn’t mean the Blue Devils will finish higher than dead last in the NEC. Marshall’s squad was DEEP in the gutter last year so even a major improvement may not be enough to start competing on a nightly basis in conference play. If everyone sticks around for the 2021-22 season, this is a program that can start to make noise once again.