-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Roman Penn, R Sr., Drake
Coach of the Year: Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa
Newcomer of the Year: Kobe King, R Sr., Valparaiso
Freshman of the Year: Tucker DeVries, Drake
Tier 1
1. Drake
Key Returners: Roman Penn, D.J. Wilkins, ShanQuan Hemphill, Tremell Murphy, Darnell Brodie, Garrett Sturtz
Key Losses: Joseph Yesufu
Key Newcomers: Tucker DeVries, Ayo Akinwole (Omaha)
Lineup:
Outlook: Nick Norton in 2019. Tremell Murphy in 2020. Roman Penn and ShanQuan ‘Tank’ Hemphill last year.
Darian DeVries should never go near a card table.
Losing four All-Conference players to injury over a span of three years should’ve been a death sentence. Instead, DeVries marshalled the Bulldogs to an NCAA Tournament victory – the program’s first since 1971 – and an outright regular season MVC crown in 2019.
Congratulations, Darian, on your 8-year extension! Winning can’t mend bones. But it can absolutely fatten your wallet!
There’s no denying that Joseph Yesufu’s inspirational rescue mission was the story of the Bulldogs’ stretch run last year. But, let’s turn the clock back a bit further and revisit ‘Drake V1’. Remember the early season juggernaut we initially fell in love with? Yes, that version, with Penn and Hemphill still in the mix and operating at peak performance.
Before Penn and Hemphill’s soul crushing injuries, Drake was a soaring comet. Somehow, DeVries’ offensive ingenuity, aided by Yesufu’s individual brilliance, kept the offense afloat in their absences. However, it was the other end of the floor where Penn and Hemphill were sorely missed: Penn as a perimeter pest and Hemphill as a wily stopper on the wing. When Hemphill returned for the NCAA Tournament, he was a shell of himself, masquerading as a glorified decoy.
Hooplens.com allows us to isolate Drake’s conference only games and pinpoint the impact of Penn and Hemphill, collectively. Zoom in on that 0.10 net impact (1.02 off versus 0.92 on) on the defensive end on the floor:
Thankfully, the Bulldogs got a full year of service from Tremell Murphy last season. After a throwaway 2020 campaign, Murphy became an invaluable cog in Drake’s sustained success, especially in March. Murphy’s the only other Bulldog who holds a candle to Hemphill’s level of versatility and athleticism. Darnell Brodie and Garrett Sturtz also answered the call of duty with Hemphill and Penn on the shelf. After lurking in the shadows at Seton Hall, Brodie finally broke out of his cocoon in the Valley. Armed with ox-like strength and smooth footwork, Brodie bloomed into a reliable low post scoring threat and a one-man wrecking crew on the glass.
Unfortunately, Brodie’s backup, Issa Samake, will miss the entirety of the 2022 season after tearing his ACL during summer workouts. This makes the Bulldogs highly leveraged on Brodie’s health and conditioning, as few viable reserves remain on the roster. I guess we’ll see what Jordan Kwiecinski and Nate Ferguson can bring to the table but they’re major unknowns at this juncture.
To cover, DeVries could get creative by utilizing 5-out, all-guard lineups, with either Murphy or Hemphill at the quasi 5. This would be a treat for Sturtz, whose precision cutting feasts on vacant floor space (credit to Jordan Majewski for anointing Sturtz the best cutter in college basketball). Sturtz can’t really protect the rim but he’s an elite rebounder from the guard position, which should further mitigate the lack of elite size in the paint.
Rounding out the returning nucleus is D.J. Wilkins, who somehow gets buried in the headlines despite being a full-time starter since 2019. MVC foes are well versed with Wilkins’ long-range marksmanship, and he’s an Energizer bunny on defense.
To hedge against another potential injury bomb, DeVries wisely bolstered his bench this summer. His son, Tucker DeVries, represents one of the foundational building blocks for the future. He’s a 3-star prospect who nearly cracked 247’s top-100 list, touted for his jack-of-all-trades repertoire. For good reason, the buzz surrounding baby DeVries is palpable. Long range specialist Jonah Jackson returns, who clocked fringe starter minutes in 2020. Ayo Akinwole should be an immediate perimeter asset as well – he was unconscious from the land of plenty last year.
Bottom Line: Anyone else amped to watch Drake eviscerate opponents with zero mercy? Unfortunately, this season’s non-conference slate boasts far stiffer competition than last year – Richmond, Belmont, Clemson, and Saint Louis are the notables – but this is all part of the #3BidValley master plan. If Drake can win one or two of those tilts and take care of their business in the Valley, DeVries should find himself back in the promise land for the second year in a row.
2. Loyola Chicago
Key Returners: Braden Norris, Lucas Williamson, Aher Uguak, Marquise Kennedy, Keith Clemons, Tate Hall, Damezi Anderson
Key Losses: Cam Krutwig
Key Newcomers: Ryan Schwieger (Princeton), Chris Knight (Dartmouth)
Lineup:
Outlook: From mentor to mentee, mid-major’s Cinderella darling will now be overseen by wunderkind Drew Valentine. For starters, any pupil of Porter Moser’s deserves the benefit of the doubt. The 30-year old was Moser’s quasi defensive coordinator over the last two seasons, engineering one of college’s basketball most impenetrable defenses. This isn’t just some hot shot, sweet talking, recruiter. In terms of ‘who’s next?’ among college basketball’s finest young coaching prodigies, Valentine would be at the top of the list (or a notch below Kim English, at minimum).
Year 1 is never smooth sailing for first year head honchos, but Valentine’s inaugural season in office will be aided by a cabinet with more tenure than Sister Jean. The Ramblers bring back four bonus year seniors who have been through the ringer and back.
In short, Valentine’s rotational options are endless. From the top, the undaunted triumvirate of Braden Norris, Keith Clemons and Marquise Kennedy return to conduct the offense and spearhead the defense. Norris was a gem of a snag from Oakland, emerging as the primary offensive initiator last season, while Clemons flanked him off the ball. Kennedy, despite backfilling Norris and Clemons off the pine, might be my favorite of the group. He’s a defensive menace at the point of attack and an efficient contributor offensively – if his long-distance conversion rate catches up with his free throw precision, look out.
At the 4 position, another trio remains gridlocked in a cutthroat battle for minutes: Aher Uguak, Tate Hall and Damezi Anderson. A former New Mexico product, Uguak finally found out his niche at Loyola. This defensive stalwart won’t get in anyone’s way on offense, but he makes his pay as a deceptive cutter and timely slasher – Uguak’s shot selectiveness earned him the best FG% in the Valley last season. Hall also grades out as a plus defender but a season long shooting funk curbed a breakout last year. Factoring in his freshman year hit rate from 3-point range (43% on 134 attempts), look for water to find its level in 2022.
That leaves Lucas Williamson, Mr. Indispensable. Williamson has been through it all. He took flight as a freshman super sub on the 2018 Final Four team. Then, recurring injury issues throughout 2019 stripped away half of his sophomore season. Rust lingered into 2020 but then it all came together last year, as Williamson’s shadowy defense and heady offense launched him into the MVC limelight.
Keep an eye on fellow wing running mate, Ryan Schwieger. Injuries prevented Schwieger from taking that elusive *next leap* but at peak form, he’s a legit All-Conference caliber player. Even though a stable of wings and lingering residue from last year’s idle season may inhibit Schwieger from putting up gaudy numbers, he’ll be a useful tool in Valentine’s toolbox, if healthy.
The million-dollar question is how the ‘Blers plan to replace their baron beast, Cam Krutwig. Barring a real life Beerfest scene (specifically, when Landfill is seamlessly replaced by long lost twin Gil), don’t bank on a Krutwig clone walking out of the tunnel this season. Instead, Valentine and his staff bagged one of the closest knockoffs the transfer market had to offer, Chris Knight. The former Ivy League standout brings a Krutwig-esque array of offensive talents to Chicago, renowned as an adept passer and crafty finisher:
However, reading between the lines of Blue Ribbon’s summer preview, Knight isn’t even a shoo-in to seize the starting spot. Those longing for a pristine passing marvel like Krutwig (read: me) are trying to speak Knight’s coming out party into existence. But, Valentine may go in a different direction.
For instance, he may opt to bring Williamson and the sharpshooting backcourt to the offensive forefront, diminishing the need for an offensive virtuoso at the 5. Also, there’s already a ton of mouths to feed on the wing, with Uguak, Anderson, Hall and Schwieger all worthy of high leverage minutes. Don’t be shocked to see Valentine test run smaller lineups, devoid of a conventional big.
Valentine still has options, though, if he wants to cement the interior rim protection with a traditional *center*. Tom Welch and Jacob Hutson were rarely seen last season but now’s the time to eject them from hibernation. The younger Hutson carries intriguing upside. He got my attention on March 5th , when he dominated Southern Illinois to the tune of 13 points in 15 minutes (granted, it was mostly garbage time). And when the stakes were raised, it was Hutson who spelled Krutwig at the 5. The foundation is laid for a breakout sophomore campaign, but his production will be contingent on Knight’s effectiveness and Valentine’s lineup prioritization.
Bottom Line: Here’s what’s often overlooked with Krutwig: as fun as he was on offense, he was invaluable defensively. Per hooplens.com, Loyola surrendered just 0.84 points per possession with Krutwig on the floor, compared to 0.91 with him off. There’s a surplus of perimeter firepower to backfill Krutwig’s scoring slack but bolstering the spine of the defense sans Krutwig will be difficult. Still, an NCAA Tournament invitation is well within reach for this decorated veteran core of super seniors, one of four Valley teams with legitimate at-large potential (erm, maybe 3.5 teams – sorry, MO State).
3. Northern Iowa
Key Returners: AJ Green, Trae Berhow, Austin Phyfe, Tywhon Pickford, Noah Carter, Bowen Born, Nate Heise, Antwan Kimmons
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Irrelevant
Lineup:
Outlook: Talk about the epitome of brutality, right Jon?
Lady Luck was a stone-cold b**** to the Purple Panthers last season. Strutting proudly with a 2020 MVC title belt in the bag, UNI was promptly humbled right out of the shoot. Any hopes of a regular season repeat were lost the moment AJ Green went down for the year with a severe hip injury just three games into the season.
From there on out, it was a bumpy ride for Ben Jacobson and the boys from Cedar Falls. Despite the trials and tribulations, a jaunty youth movement provided a dose of optimism. The momentum started to simmer as the calendar turned to March, but, lo and behold, there was Lady Luck, Johnny-on-the-spot to spoil the fun. After an opening round MVC Tournament win over Illinois State, COVID-19 tossed UNI to the curb, pulling the plug on the Panthers’ season.
The 2022 reboot will bear a striking resemblance to the 2019-20 story arc. The Panthers will trot out three of the same starters from the 2020 championship squad – Green, Trae Berhow and Austin Phyfe – along with Tywhon Pickford and Bowen Born, who are reasonable facsimiles to two other starters on that 2020 team, Isaiah Brown (comparable to Pickford) and Spencer Haldeman (comparable to Born). In essence, Jacobson will travel back in time, abduct his 2020 roster core, and bring them back to the future!
But wait! Those aren’t the only pieces in Jacobson’s refurbished war chest. While UNI was lost in the wilderness in last year’s forgettable season, Noah Carter sprouted into an invaluable X-Factor. Carter toggled back and forth between starter and reserve, but his impact never wavered. At his core, Carter’s a tweener, able to play on the wing or down low, but the second forward spot is where he’ll find a permanent home this year. That likely relegates Born to the bench, as Green should reclaim his seat in the point guard saddle.
Green, Berhow, Phyfe, Pickford, and Carter, plus Born off the pine? That top-6 is good enough to win this league, plain and simple, which could make this 3rd place projection look foolish by March. As a Purple Panther fan, feel free to stick your nose up at this bronze medal prediction. Green, Berhow and Phyfe are all two years older, wiser, stronger, and presumably better. However, lingering injury risk does warrant moderate concerns. Green’s coming off not one but two hip surgeries, and Pickford’s been chronically injured for nearly three years.
However, this year, Jacobson’s prepared for any ticking time bomb injuries. A long and capable bench is the ultimate insurance policy, which was sharpened by last year’s fissures. Backcourt dynamo Antwan Kimmons is back, who spent most of last season home with his family during the pandemic. Between Kimmons and Born, Jacobson has two stout options to spell Green, which will be critical for Green’s long term load management.
Nate Heise will likely join the bench mob this year, a part time starter last season. He didn’t set the world on fire offensively but made up for it with his defense – the Panthers don’t need him to score, especially now with Green back in the fold. Useful utility wing Goanar Mar, along with Tytan Anderson, James Betz and Cole Henry, round out the rest of the reserves. It’s rare to see a bench that goes 12-deep with legitimate experience.
From a style perspective, it’s precarious why Jacobson revved up the offensive engine last season, especially in the wake of losing two key guards at the onset of the season. Historically, UNI has fallen in line with the rest of the Valley’s molasses slow tempo. Last year, the Panthers checked in with the 3rd fastest pace in the Valley – charting this tempo against Jacobson’s ten seasons shows what a seismic shift this was:
This may just be the ‘AJ Green effect’. Part of Green’s ingenuity is his ability to dictate the game on his terms, which is never in hurry-up mode. With Green back under center this season, the Panthers may revert to their old methodical ways – though, this is pure speculation.
On the other hand, we know precisely what to expect from UNI when it comes to defense and rebounding, the pillars to this program’s success since Jacobson’s arrival:
“Defensively, you’ve got to be a good defensive team and you’ve got to be a great rebounding team,” Jacobson told the Gazette when asked about his team’s chances at a 2022 MVC title run.
Last year was a stain on Jacobson’s sterling defensive resume, as MVC foes capitalized on the Panthers’ lack of experience. A return to normalcy should be imminent, given the roster continuity and broader DNA similarities to the 2020 team.
Bottom Line: I’m all aboard Jordan Majewski’s #3BidValley train. The Panthers are ‘1C’ to Drake’s 1A and Loyola’s 1B in the Valley’s loaded upper echelon but could easily emerge as the best this league has to offer.
If more news like this trickles out over the next month or two, I’ll have no choice but to bump UNI to the top pole position in the predicted standings:
4. Missouri State
Key Returners: Isiaih Mosley, Gaige Prim, Demarcus Sharp, Ja'Monta Black, Keaton Hervey
Key Losses: Jared Ridder
Key Newcomers: Jaylen Minnett (IUPUI), Donovan Clay (Valpo)
Lineup:
Outlook: As an offspring of two Missouri State alumni, I’ve always kept a watchful eye over this program – heck, I was holding up Marty Prather signs at Arch Madness before I could even drive.
Once a formidable contender at the top of the MVC totem pole, the Bears are still licking their wounds from the 8-year stall out during the Paul Lusk era. Dana Ford is finally rekindling bits and pieces of that winning tradition, propped up by a fiercely loyal fanbase. Yet, despite Ford inching his way up the MVC standings, there’s still something missing – at least, in the eyes of some.
A thoughtful articulation of this [highly abstract and largely subjective] gut feeling can be found in this post at Bear Boulevard. This specific excerpt below hits the nail on the head, in terms of why many see MO State as a tick below Drake, Loyola and UNI:
Most will see us as a top 2-4 team, perhaps even the favorite, and based on personnel alone, that's a fair assessment. But when I look at the other teams that will be picked along with us as a potential favorite, where we fall short is that we have no team identity.
Whoever wrote this ‘gets it’. From my vantage point, Ford’s won more with talent than with scheme since arriving in Springfield. On one hand, it’s unfair to critique a guy who’s already fielded two teams better than any squad Lusk trotted out there (save maybe 2011-12). But Ford’s early success, coupled with the program’s rich tradition, has built an angry monster of expectations. In that light, the lack of identity nitpicks are valid. It’s the difference between a really good, top-100 NIT / CBI / CIT caliber team (say, Missouri State last year) and a very good, top-50 NCAA Tournament at large contender (see Loyola and Drake last year).
Pound for pound, the Bears have the horses to run with anyone in the Valley this year. There won’t be any matchup in which MSU finds themselves outmanned or outgunned, at least from a talent perspective.
The devastating 1-2 punch of Isiaih Mosley and Gaige Prim are back to lead the cavalry, both coming off banner seasons that will be hard to top in this year’s encore. How Mosley’s able to make shots with that cringeworthy hitched release defies physics but the numbers speak for themselves. Through two seasons, he’s holding a 39% hit rate from 3-point range, coupled with an 85% clip from the free throw line and 53% conversion rate inside the arc.
Prim is the thunder to Mosley’s lightning, a burly big with a polished offensive arsenal. Prim can bully you on the block or drain a 10-12 footer in your eyehole, which forces defenders to pick their poison. Both Mosley and Prim are tremendous passers as well, always findings the open man when the help side defense shades their way.
New addition Jaylen Minnett will be licking his chops playing with these two, a lethal long-range marksman, who can also get his own off the dribble. Ja'Monta Black is the incumbent floor spacer who may be relegated to a super sub role in 2021 – interestingly enough, Black’s two best games last year were against Bradley, the only two times he came off the pine. Finally, Demarcus Sharp is back to steer the ship at point. Sharp was a driving force behind the Bears’ 8-2 record over the last 10 games – during that stretch, Sharp dished out 57 assists while only coughing it up 17 times, which equated to a sterling 3.2 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Keaton Hervey deserves to retain his spot in the starting lineup, but Valpo import Donovan Clay’s suffocating defense may be too enticing to ignore. Clay’s efficiency plummeted last season but he forms the perfect yin to Hervey’s yang.
There’s serviceable depth at the back end of the rotation as well but that top-7 will determine the fate of the Bears’ season. Again, it all comes down to whether or not MSU can develop that elusive ‘it’ factor as a unit, which underpinned Loyola and Drake’s recent rise to fame.
That cynicism mostly applies to the offensive side of the ball because the Bears did defend rather intelligently last season. Ford still hasn’t unleashed the full-fledged ball pressure some expected, but he did dial up the perimeter intensity a notch last year, which, in turn, deterred open 3s from the outside.
Additionally, two other statistical markers last year point to sustainable systemic defensive improvement: a rise in average defensive possession length and a drop in opponent assist rate. In non-statistical speak, the Bears forced opponents into longer offensive possessions, which forced those opponents in to more ‘hero ball’ shots late in the shot clock (the latter of which is reflected in the decline in defensive assist rate). That said, it all comes back to the personnel, which is littered with topflight athletes. They’ll all orbit Prim inside, a reigning All MVC Defense Team honoree a year ago.
Bottom Line: Even if everything breaks right, it’s hard to see Missouri State usurping Drake, Loyola and Northern Iowa for the outright MVC title. But, as vicious as the Valley is, the conference tournament at the end of the road remains a beacon of hope. In a neutral court, do-or-die tournament setting, anything can happen at Arch Madness. Securing a top-2 seed would be a winning lottery ticket but even if MSU settles in that 4-5 seed range, they’ll be in prime position for a run at postseason glory – think of this as ‘the Bradley Blueprint’, as the Braves executed to perfection in 2019 and 2020.
Tier 2
5. Southern Illinois
Key Returners: Everyone
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Ben Coupet (Little Rock)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Salukis were last season’s preseason seductress. Year 2 of Bryan Mullins, plus a burgeoning crop of underclassmen, had every CBB prognosticator mesmerized.
However, it wasn’t long until *we* snapped back to reality. COVID and injuries blitzed the Salukis from both directions. A left foot injury abruptly halted Marcus Domask’s highly anticipated sophomore season, fresh off his MVC Freshman and Newcomer of the Year rookie campaign. This was a double whammy, compounding the impact of decorated JUCO recruit JD Muila’s torn meniscus, who was lost for the year last summer.
Mulligan anyone?
Yup, sign me up! The Salukis bring the whole band back from a squadron many pegged as a top-5 squad last summer. On the national spectrum, SIUC is in rare company from a roster continuity perspective – per Barttorvik’s roster projection tool, only 10 teams in America return a higher percentage of minutes from a year ago.
However, this competitive advantage could be negated in the Valley. Five MVC teams rank in the top-50 of that same continuity metric, not including Loyola, who also returns four starters:
According to Mullins, Domask is fully cleared for takeoff and has been a full practice participant since the team began summer workouts in June. It feels like a decade ago when Domask hosted his coming out party against Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse. He was unstoppable that day in Indy, torching the Bulldogs to the tune of 26 points in a full 40 minutes of action, propelling the Salukis to a marquee road win. Domask’s unorthodox player profile makes him a tough cover – he’s more of a wing than a traditional big but his versatility at the 4 position causes matchup headaches for opponents.
Muila is also back in the mix, a thunderous rim rocker with a world of potential. Barring any injury setbacks, last year’s fickle frontline suddenly looks like a sturdy unit. Kyler Filewich and Anthony D’Avanzo, two staples in last year’s frontcourt rotation, return as well.
Domask and Muila’s injuries carved out a golden opportunity for Filewich, who seized the available playing time with unabashed confidence. After etching his name on the All-Freshman team, Filewich will be an overqualified reserve coming off the bench. That said, it was far from a perfect rookie debut – he was swallowed up by premier bigs around the MVC, notably Gaige Prim and Cam Krutwig. But, his baseline size and skillset is oozing with promise.
Mullins also brought in an experienced swiss army knife in Ben Coupet to be a super utility man. Mullins had high praise for Coupet… though, not as high as Coupet’s own appraisal:
"A guy that could play multiple positions on the team, could lead you to a win on many different nights," was how Coupet described his game. "Going into this next season, I kind of wanted to put it all together, and just show that I could be a complete player."
A revamped frontcourt will take care of the dirty work inside, but Domask will need his perimeter running mates to chip in the scoring domain. While there was boiling optimism over the return of Lance Jones, Trent Brown, Steven Verplancken, Ben Harvey and Dalton Banks last year, there’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that this was the MVC’s worst offense. This army of young guards faced a daunting challenge once Domask went down, and deserve a hall pass for their inconsistency. The perimeter depth is plentiful again, so not every member of that backcourt quintet needs to be a superstar.
Of that group, Jones, Brown and Banks bear big responsibilities as the Salukis’ most dynamic scoring and shooting threats. Jones is the primary initiator and SIUC’s best pure shot maker. He’s lights out from bonus land, both off the catch and off the dribble, but he struggled to find his touch inside the arc. Brown’s more of a specialist, content to linger on the periphery until an open shot presents itself. He can drill it when he has time and space but needs to continue adding multi-level scoring moves to his arsenal. Banks falls somewhere in between, the youngest of the trio who now enters that alluring sophomore year launching pad.
Bottom Line: In a typical year, the Salukis would be a top-5 shoo-in and likely top-3 inclusion in our projected standings. This year, however, they’re victims of a fiercely competitive landscape. Loyola, Drake and Northern Iowa are knocking on the door of at-large bids, while Missouri State’s roster is loaded.
That said, this youth-laden backcourt could be on the precipice of a dynamite year and the rehabilitated frontline, assuming Domask and Muila stay healthy, could pose real issues for the MVC’s top-4.
6. Valparaiso
Key Returners: Ben Krikke, Sheldon Edwards, Connor Barrett, Eron Gordon
Key Losses: Donovan Clay, Mileek McMillan
Key Newcomers: Kobe King (Wisconsin), Trevor Anderson (Wisconsin), Thomas Kithier (Michigan State)
Lineup:
Outlook: This is Valparaiso. They were once called the Crusaders. Now they are called the Beacons.
Phew, I’ve officially checked the obligatory ‘poke fun at Valpo’s new mascot’ box in the MVC preview protocols. Now, on to the substantive part of this preview.
Paul Oren’s piece, published this summer, gives a perceptive look inside the state of Valpo basketball’s program. This sets the stage for where the Crusaders, I mean, Beacons, stand heading into next year:
Valparaiso’s offseason wasn’t even 100 hours old when the winds of change started flowing through the basketball program. Less than four days after Valparaiso’s season came to an end at the Missouri Valley Conference tournament last month, a trio of reserves — Steven Helm, Sigurd Lorange and Nick Robinson — entered the transfer portal. Sophomore star Donovan Clay entered his name the following day and by weeks’ end, multi-year starters Mileek McMillan and Daniel Sackey were also on their way out.
Behold the aftermath of yet another sub .500 season in the Valley, a mark Matt Lottich hasn’t topped since 2017, his first season on the sidelines. All things considered, the 2021 campaign wasn’t Lottich’s finest moment. He was the target of some negative press stemming from an apparent ultimatum given to guard Nick Robinson. The initial report framed Lottich as forcing Robinson to play against DePaul, a game Robinson wanted to sit out due to COVID-19 concerns – and if he refused, Robinson would have to opt out. Lottich obviously has his side to the story as well but the sheer fact that such a story emerged - on top of the outbound transfer tidal wave - may have permanently stained Lottich’s reputation. Alternatively, it could’ve meant absolutely nothing and the whole thing may be buried and forgotten with time – who knows!
On the bright side, Lottich replenished the daunting transfer exodus with three high profile power conference imports. The influx inertia started with Trevor Anderson, who sparked a Wisconsin windfall. Anderson, a serviceable role player for Bucky last season, is one of three Badger products joining the fold. Anderson was punching above his weight class in the Big-10 but the Valley should suit him well – he’s a skilled, heady combo guard with a pure long range jumper.
Anderson will play second fiddle to fellow Badger defector Kobe King, one of the biggest transfer splashes debuting in the Valley this season. King was among the first to blow the lid on Wisconsin’s simmering locker room riffs, involving Greg Gard and several other Badger players. A fresh start should be just what the doctor ordered for the crafty King, who had his pick of the litter once he announced his intention to leave Madison. He initially considered Nebraska, then tested the NBA waters, before ultimately deciding to stay in school. Thanks to Anderson’s persuasion, King fell right into Lottich’s lap. However, due to ongoing NCAA inquiries and the uniqueness of King’s situation, he may not be eligible until second semester.
The Badger backcourt twofer should instantly lift the Beacons’ offense out of the gutter, which was crippled by anemic shooting last year. Coupled with severe COVID constrictions, Lottich retreated into a ground-and-pound style on offense. The artist formerly known as the Crusaders were downright brutal to watch at times – it’s no surprise Valpo went 6-20 to the UNDER last year (for those who appreciate betting anecdotes).
It certainly wasn’t Ben Krikke’s fault. The slippery 6’9 forward is an inventive finisher in and around the paint. In terms of reliably efficient scorers, Krikke was the last man standing last year. He can also hold his down defensively, an able mover in pick-n-roll coverage and help side support – plus, he’s elastic enough to bother shots at the rim. With Mileek McMillan hampered by injury last year, Krikke emerged as a sound interior defender – while he’s not an elite shot blocker, or a dominant rebounder, above average lateral movement, timing and intelligence make him a plus defender at perhaps the most important spot on the floor:
Flanking Krikke up front will be Michigan State castaway Thomas Kithier, a comparable prototype to Krikke. Kithier was impeded by a stable of forwards in East Lansing, preventing him from making a dent in the rotation. He picked a prime destination to revitalize his collegiate career – with Clay and McMillan moving on to greener pastures, the seas have been parted for Kithier to actualize his recruiting prophecy.
Rounding out the top end of the rotation should be Eron Gordon, Sheldon Edwards and Connor Barrett. Gordon’s the elder leader of the bunch, a rock-solid role player who started to heat up down the stretch. Edwards and Barrett are next in line. Lottich is betting on a leap from the two scintillating sophomores. Speaking of leaping, few can do so higher than Edwards, a prolific athlete with captivating upside.
Bottom Line: Valpo’s a tough nut to crack. The roster turnover is substantial, but this is not just an island of misfit toys. The newcomers are a tight knit bunch, friends from their glory days on the grassroots circuit. Promising D-II product Kevion Taylor played AAU ball with King, who’s presumably close with his two Wisconsin wingmen.
Lottich still needs to mold this group into a cohesive unit but the innate chemistry amongst the new arrivals should give him a head start. The top-end talent is good enough to crack the top-5 but fit will determine the Beacons’ 2022 destiny.
7. Bradley
Key Returners: Ja'Shon Henry, Ville Tahvanainen, Ari Boya, Rienk Mast
Key Losses: Elijah Childs, Sean East, Terry Nolan
Key Newcomers: Mikey Howell (UC San Diego), Malevy Leons (JUCO), Terry Roberts (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: After two straight improbable runs through the Arch Madness minefield, the Braves’ luck finally ran out. To say the pendulum swung the other way would be the understatement of the century. Nothing could go wrong during those two storybook runs through the 2019 and 2020 MVC Tournaments. Last year, everything that could possibly go wrong, did.
A COVID bomb went off right before Christmas, locking the Braves in a straitjacket for nearly three weeks. Simultaneously, a busted foot ended 7-1 giant Ari Boya’s season right before conference play. The Braves, shockingly, held their ground and scrapped and clawed to a 3-1 MVC record by late January.
Just when Wardle had seemed to settle on a consistent rotation, it all started to unravel. Multiple minor injuries fractured that rotational chemistry as the calendar turned to June, but then, the real atom bomb went off.
Elijah Childs, Danya Kingsby, Terry Nolan and Ja'Shon Henry were all suspended immediately because of an ongoing police investigation related to an off-campus incident. From that point forward, Wardle was throwing darts blindfolded trying to sort out the rotations. Bradley used eight different starting lineups in their final 11 contests:
By March, the wheels were fully unhinged, and the Braves spiraled into a free fall. I haven’t a clue how they beat Drake in the regular season finale but that stands alone as an emotional outlier in the big picture lull.
While the Braves’ 6-12 league record sticks out as an eyesore, they still graded out as a the 5th best team in the Valley from an analytics standpoint (146th overall in KenPom, 166th in BartTorvik, 172nd in Haslametrics). Much of this was buoyed by a strong non-conference showing. We took immediate notice after the Braves beat Toledo (a win that aged EXTREMELY well), and almost took down both Xavier and Missouri in their own buildings.
Redemption in 2022 hinges on Wardle’s ability to repair the defense in the wake of Childs’ departure. He was a matrix-caliber defender, but Wardle has options waiting in the wings. Boya now becomes a crucial piece to the puzzle, a towering gatekeeper of the restricted area. He’s never been a major minutes eater, as injuries have taken a toll on his mileage, but, according to the Peoria Journal Star, Boya is finally healthy – though, ‘healthy’ carries a different meaning in Boya’s context:
"When you have a big guy like that, who has had some injuries, you have to be careful with him, protect him," Wardle said. "Ari goes two days on, third day off. He'll probably never go three days in a row again for me in his career. We're going to take care of him."
Wardle is banking on Malevy Leons, the national JUCO player of the year, to ramp up in a hurry. He’s a freakish talent and, for my money, the best keep secret amongst the Valley newcomers. If Leons can live up to Wardle’s strict defensive standards, he’ll get plenty of chances to show off his dazzling offensive skillset:
While the rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired in terms of proven D-I production, the sheer size and length littered across all five positions could be a serious competitive advantage. Wardle recognizes it, and is already devising ways to weaponize it:
Wardle likes the size and intelligence of his team so far. He says the influx of new players — and the collective size they bring — has caused him to tweak some things offensively and look at some different defensive tactics. Yet the program's core principles will be the same.
"We're long, and we’re tall,” Wardle told the Peoria Journal Star. "When you enter that paint you better be ready to finish on us, because we got a lot of guys who are going to get after it."
Rienk Mast and Darius Hannah are two names to circle as potential breakouts, the latter of which is flying especially under the radar. Wardle singled out Hannah when discussing early observations from Bradley’s June workouts. After starting five of the last six games last season, the high-flying Hannah could be another defensive eraser – but good golly, Darius, let’s not go 8-for-27 from the charity stripe again, please.
With all due respect to the freshmen, transfers Mikey Howell and Terry Roberts will likely consume the lion’s share of the available perimeter minutes. Howell is not your typical point guard mold, a lanky southpaw who operates with a soothing ‘slow-mo’ fluidity. He had a rough go of it last season but his instincts and passing vision are sublime. Roberts hails from notable JUCO factory Florida Southwestern State, another excellent passer who can run the offense as needed (Wardle also raved about his defensive activity).
Ville Tahvanainen needs to snap out of last year’s shooting funk in a hurry if the Braves have any hope of spacing the floor. He was once one of the better shooters in the Valley but he couldn’t buy a bucket last season. If Tahvanainen can climb back into the high 30s / low 40s percentage wise from long range, it will alleviate any cramped spacing for Henry and Leons to operate.
Bottom Line: Bradley’s DNA is etched in stone. Length and physicality are the calling cards, key ingredients to defending in the Valley. This impenetrable fortress will be a chore to circumvent for opposing offenses, but the Braves will need to manufacture points of their own as well. Look for Wardle to lean heavily on Leons’ gifted skill set as a crutch to keep the offense afloat.
Tier 3
8. Illinois State
Key Returners: Josiah Strong, Antonio Reeves, Emon Washington, Howard Fleming, Harouna Sissoko
Key Losses: DJ Horne
Key Newcomers: Mark Freeman (Tennessee State), Kendall Lewis (Appalachian State), Liam McChesney (Utah State), Ryan Schmitt (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Oh, how the mighty have fallen…
After bringing up the rear last season, the Redbirds are now 17-39 over the last two seasons – only Evansville has fewer conference wins during that span, who leapfrogged Illinois State in the standings last year.
There’s plenty of finger pointing to go around but the cumulative lack of experience didn’t do Dan Muller any favors (ISU ranked 329th in KenPom’s experience metric last season). Muller didn’t shy away from voicing his frustration with such an unseasoned group, precisely why he nabbed experienced newcomers via the portal this offseason:
"I love freshmen, but not having any (first-year scholarship freshmen) is obvious,” Muller told the Pantagraph. “You put something in and guys kind of know what to do. [This year], we have three newcomers who have two years Division I experience and who know how to jump to the ball and know how to guard ball screens. Even if our technique is different, they pick it up quickly because they've been taught. Experience does help your talent equal production."
Muller circled the center position as top priority for offseason transfer targets. Dusan Mahorcic departs, a pleasant surprise last season who emerged as the Redbirds’ meal ticket inside, but Muller restocked the cupboard this summer. Liam McChesney and Ryan Schmitt are the two most imposing bigs – the former hails from Utah State’s forward factory while the latter dominated the D-II JUCO landscape. Neither is a proven commodity, though, so look for Abdou Ndiaye and Sy Chatman to gobble up a hearty share of the frontcourt minutes. ISU is fortunate to get both back in the fold. Ndiaye initially put his name in the portal but chose to return to Normal. Chatman opted out a few games into the season but stayed true to his commitment to return for the 2022 campaign.
Another fortuitous roster development was Antonio Reeves’ forgoing his pro prospects and boomeranging back to ISU. Reeves tested the NBA waters this summer but ultimately chose to stick around for another season. The former Simeon product out of Chicago has always been a tantalizing prospect, but he officially got our attention in late January when the Redbirds, miraculously, lasted 15 rounds with Drake. No one expected ISU to compete in that game, but Reeves essentially went 1-v-5 against the Bulldogs, tallying 27 of ISU’s 76 points. In that duel, there was a stretch Reeves scored 14 straight points, pushing the undefeated Bulldogs to the brink of their first loss:
Along with Reeves, the Redbirds will be highly leveraged on their four top producers: Reeves, Josiah Strong, Mark Freeman and Kendall Lewis. Freeman and Lewis were terrific at their prior destinations, compiling a resume that qualifies them as potential starters in the Valley. Specifically, their defense is what lured Muller to seek their services on the transfer wire:
"We've brought in some high-level defenders, in particular Kendall Lewis and Mark Freeman,” Muller told the Peoria Star Journal. In this league, you don't win unless you guard. I have very high hopes for this team defensively. It's no secret our defense hasn't been good the last couple years, and we have to get where we were a couple years ago. That's my goal."
Last year’s uncharacteristically poor defensive unit did nothing to offset the offensive shortcomings, as Muller was forced to rely on a 2-3 matchup zone (per Synergy, the Redbirds played zone on over half of their defensive possessions). When executed effectively, there’s an element of unfamiliarity that can bewilder opponents, since the zone doesn’t take a conventional 2-3 or 3-2 shape. But, the advanced numbers reveal ISU was still more effective in man-to-man. Per a recent interview with the Pantagraph, Muller is making a wise decision to reinstall man to man as his primary base defensive coverage.
Last year’s growing pains, particularly for the underclassmen, should start to yield returns in 2022. Emon Washington could be the best kept secret of this bunch, a rangy smooth wing who does serious damage around the restricted area. Howard Fleming’s injury baggage is worrisome but the flashy 6’5 playmaker forged his way into the starting lineup down the stretch last year. Harouna Sissoko, on the other hand, will have to scrap and claw to regain his place in the pecking order after forfeiting his starting job, while Alston Andrews offers additional size in the middle.
Bottom Line: Dissatisfied with the talent pipeline in house, Muller didn’t hesitate to hire external help this summer. Freeman and Lewis could emerge as ISU’s best players, but the incumbents have a pinch of firepower as well, namely Strong and Reeves. Above all, the personnel upgrades and stylistic adjustments point to a defensive turnaround in 2022, which has been Muller’s calling card for years. That alone should nudge ISU out of the basement but this league is simply too deep to realistically bet on a monumental turnaround.
9. Indiana State
Key Returners: Tyreke Key, Cooper Neese, Julian Larry
Key Losses: Jake LaRavia, Tre Williams, Tobias Howard, Randy Miller
Key Newcomers: Xavier Bledson (Lincoln Memorial), Cameron Henry (Lincoln Memorial), Dearon Tucker (Oregon State)
Lineup:
Outlook: Timing just wasn’t Greg Lansing’s thing…
Like a SWAT team trying to break down a barricade, Lansing repeatedly banged against the door of the MVC’s elite. His Sycamores laid into that barrier with thunderous a ‘boom’ last season in what felt like a make-or-break year. Armed with a veteran laden, talent rich roster, it was Lansing’s best shot at postseason glory.
The problem? That metaphorical door was reinforced by cement blocks in the form of Loyola and Drake, two historically great teams by Valley standards. 22-14 is nothing to scoff at but it was lost in the shadows behind Loyola and Drake’s climb to the mountaintop. In the end, Lansing simply ran out of time.
Recognizing the staying power of conference foes such as Loyola and Drake, among others, ISU decided to go outside the box – like, completely outside the Division I sandbox...
After 13 years at Division II Lincoln Memorial University, Josh Schertz will test his luck in the major leagues. Schertz’s dazzling resume in the D-II rank, which includes four national coach of the year honors and 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, exudes plenty of optimism that the leap in competition won’t be above his paygrade. Last year, LMU finished with a 19-4 record, culminating in a trip to the Final 4 – Schertz is showing no signs of slowing down…
Still, how do we make sense of those accolades within a D-II context? Massey’s comprehensive ratings, which rates D-I, D-II, D-III and NAIA schools on the same numerical spectrum, allows us to make sense of this apples-to-oranges comparison. This is by no means a bulletproof proxy but Massey’s ratings of recent D-I newcomers have proven to be a useful tool in prognosticating where non D-I teams project as they transition up.
For those not privy to Lincoln Memorial, or the D-II competitive landscape in general, the snapshot below might surprise you. What if I told you last year’s Lincoln squad would’ve fallen just outside the top-200 in the overall D-I totem pole?
For reference, Illinois State, last year’s basin of the Valley, finished 208th, just 17 spots ahead of Lincoln. Last year was no fluke year for LMU either – Schertz went 32-1 the year before, and LMU graded out at #184 overall in Massey’s aggregate composite rankings. This is fairly convincing evidence that Schertz, along with the three transfers he brought with him (Cameron Henry, Xavier Bledson and Simon Wilbar), have the chops to compete on the MVC battlefield.
With all due respect to Wilbar, Henry and Bledson are the headliners. Bledson was LMU’s jack-of-all-trades point forward last season, dishing out a team high five dimes a game while chipping in the scoring and rebounding departments as well. Henry is a leaner 6’6, regarded as a defensive black hole for his stingy coverage. He took home the SAC’s Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2020 and can do it all offensively. He’s silky smooth off the dribble and canned nearly 40% of his 3-point attempts last year:
Between Henry and incumbent Julian Larry, Schertz will have the luxury of deploying two of the league’s top perimeter stoppers.
Wilbar, along with Oregon State import Dearon Tucker and 2021 sit out Nick Hittle, will shoulder a heavy burden inside, especially in the wake of Jake LaRavia’s departure. The frontline is largely unproven, but Schertz can mitigate a short rotation with guard and wing depth on the perimeter. Bear in mind, speed and versatility are key enablers to Schertz’s style.
Schertz seems to be taking a prudent approach to integrating his ‘system’ at ISU (excerpt from a fantastic snapshot by Todd Heffernan):
"It's a unique challenge, right? You're coming in, and you have three players from LMU, and they have a general idea of what we want to do, but, even so, there are small tweaks you make depending on personnel, so it's never a cookie-cutter, in terms of what you're trying to do," Schertz said. "Because you're trying to take advantage of a team's strengths, individually and collectively, certainly with your best player. Every year that's going to be a little bit different."
Adapting style to personnel strengths? This is music to my ears.
In that article, Heffernan highlights the stark contrast between the run-and-gun pace LMU played at last year and the methodical tempo ISU’s played at the last two seasons. Don’t expect to see the finished product of Schertz’s final vision this season but the Sycamores are bound to become one of the faster teams in the Valley over the next few years.
Tyreke Key and Cooper Neese started off their careers playing in a fast break friendly system, but Lansing retreated to the MVC tempo norms (read: slow) in 2020. Key and Cooper are gifted shot makers who aren’t afraid to attack in transition, so the fact that they stuck around points to their ‘buy in’ of Schertz’s new regime.
Bottom Line: In short, Schertz faces two main challenges in his first ‘Tour de Valley’:
Implementing a fast break attack in a league that effectively forbids offenses from going over the speed limit
Smoothing out the turbulence in instilling a brand-new system with a lot of new puzzle pieces
"The way we play is a little bit different, and so much of it is based on the ability to read the game, and read each other," Schertz said. "And that comes with repetitions. One thing we had at LMU that we won't have here, this year, is corporate knowledge and continuity."
Long-term, I’m bullish on Schertz’s track record translating here. However, he’s been explicit in curbing all expectations for year 1, reiterating the slow burn nature of instilling the culture.
10. Evansville
Key Returners: Shamar Givance, Jawaun Newton, Noah Frederking, Evan Kuhlman
Key Losses: Jax Levitch, Samari Curtis
Key Newcomers: Blaise Beauchamp (JUCO), Antoine Smith (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Huh? Did Evansville really finish 5th in the Valley last year?
It was a choppy transition to the Todd Lickliter era, but the Aces are officially off and running – well, walking, but with a purpose no less.
For years, Evansville’s offense was stuck in the stone ages, orchestrated by the execution-obsessed Marty Simmons. Lickliter shares Simmons’ affection for half-court patience but the revamped offense is heavily leveraged on pick-n-roll action, a foreign concept during Simmons’ reign. Just look at the sharp evolution of the Aces’ offense over the last three seasons:
Shamar Givance and Jawaun Newton return to co-pilot this downhill attack. Givance and Newton are jet quick off the bounce, adept at finding creases to break down the defense. Givance struggled to find his footing as an underclassman but blossomed during his junior campaign last year. His individual development is part of the equation, but he finally looks comfortable playing in Lickliter’s modern offense. Here’s Givance showcasing that burst in a game winning coast-to-coast layup over SEMO:
Newton is the bigger of the backcourt bellwethers, renowned as a three-level scorer. He’s a perfect complement to Givance as the de facto 2-guard but he’ll get ample opportunities to initiate the offense on his own as well.
Noah Frederking and Evan Kuhlman are the beneficiaries of Givance and Newton’s penetration, two incumbent sharpshooters who knocked down a combined 100 triples last season. Frederking will flank Newton and Givance on the wing while the mismatch maestro Kuhlman is a nightmare cover for clog-footed bigs at the 4. With these four starters back to carry the torch, the Aces should have no issue throwing it in the ocean.
Defense, on the other hand, well, there’s some concerns to say the least. Let’s do a little good news, bad news.
Good news first. Evansville is a MAJOR positive regression candidate in terms of shooting luck. Teams shot 41% from long distance against the Ville last season, the highest clip in the entire country. Disorganization and poor rotations are partly to blame but Lickliter notably emphasized running shooters off the 3-point line. In general, teams that underscore limiting open threes are more likely to reap the benefits of positive shooting regression.
However, the bad news is that a gaping soft spot in the belly of the defense remains. Devoid of a feared shot blocker, Lickliter hung Kuhlman out to dry as the default rim protector last year.
Options appear to be limited once again, as Iyen Enaruna and Trey Hall are the lone incumbents standing 6’9 or taller. Hall is a prototypical inverse forward, so he won’t solve this defensive shakiness by himself. His shooting will come in handy on the offensive end, but Lickliter will have to lean heavily on Enaruna. His production was pedestrian a year ago, but he’s blessed with a 7-1 wingspan, which could be weaponized into a formidable rim protector.
Lickliter waxed poetic about the Aces’ new arrivals this summer, but a pair of skeptical eyes is needed. None of these are touted as tenacious defenders, a glaring omission from the roster as its currently constructed. Emmette Page isn’t technically a newcomer, but a sharp rise in minutes is imminent for the little used reserve last season, who was a prolific scorer at the junior-college level. Blaise Beauchamp and Antoine Smith are knockdown shooters at their respective positions as well but don’t project as stout individual defenders. Behind them, the Aces’ depth looks awfully bleak.
Bottom Line: This last place projection should not be interpreted as a hard sell of the Aces. In fact, my power ratings reflect Evansville as a better team than last year, despite this unfortunate placement in the predicted standings. There are simply no ‘gimmes’ in this year’s Valley and all three teams in the bottom Tier 3 could easily creep up into the second tier.