-Jim Root
It’s exceedingly rare that we get specific requests for content here at the Weave, so when that happens, we move heaven and earth to make it happen (read: we breathe a sigh of relief at the #content idea). And this week, our friend @MuskieMusings brought up the idea of dipping my toes back into the futures market, so here goes!
I’ll start with a quick recap of my preseason bets so that you can decide if you have any interest in listening to me in the first place:
Crap. Me looking at my UNC title pick:
Gonzaga and West Virginia have gone decidedly the other way, though, with the Zags looking like a shoo-in for a #1 seed and West Virginia firmly entrenching itself as a top 10 team.
If I start writing about Mike White and his squandering of the talent in Gainesville, I’ll end up burning down my roommate’s new house out of frustration, so we’ll just leave it at this: Florida might miss the tournament with Kerry Blackshear, three five-star recruits (sophomore Andrew Nembhard, freshmen Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann), and plenty of complementary talent. And just like that, my blood is starting to boil…
Another mixed bag, though I’d say largely a positive group. Ohio State toyed with my emotions early on, ascending to the poisoned throne atop the AP Poll; the Buckeyes are now just one of many middling Big Ten teams that will find themselves in the 5-8 seed range (though analytics sites continue to fawn over them). The Buckeyes’ ceiling is also dependent on freshman phenom D.J. Carton returning to the team, something that is in no way a certainty.
Florida State has been who I thought they would be: an incredibly athletic collection of big wings, though this roster has been strangely reliant on its potent perimeter shooting rather than the usual rim assault we’ve come to expect. Plus, Leonard Hamilton would have to make the Final Four for this bet to pay out, which…yeah.
Houston has surged recently following a bare-bottom spanking of Wichita State on Sunday, and I continue to like the idea of a Kelvin Sampson-coached defense that has a multitude of backcourt weapons. The Cougars are currently 80/1 to win it all, and if they would appear in the “New Adds” section below were I not already on them.
As for Alabama and Mississippi, I don’t have much to say. Both sit at 13-11 right now with shaky-at-best chances to make the Tournament, and while both have shown the ability to be great in spurts, they have not been lucky enough (Alabama) or consistent enough (Mississippi) to actually warrant Big Dance invites. Both would be very strong NIT bets, though (I can’t believe I’m serious).
All three of these teams were priced like top 15 teams, and, well, that’s certainly not the case for Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers nor the reigning national champions (that’s Virginia, in case you’re a tempo-hater in denial). I guess Villanova could get hot and make a run, but clearly, the value was not present in late October.
Okay, let’s get to the part people are actually interested in reading – any potential new bets? I like four currently on the board:
I get that Kentucky is not exactly a world-beater in predictive rankings (27th at KenPom, 31st BartTorvik, 32nd Haslametrics), but that’s highly symptomatic of their complete inability to blow out bad teams. When faced with stiffer competition, the Wildcats have risen to the occasion: BartTorvik’s site gives you the ability to filter for results against Top 50 teams, which moves Kentucky up to 11th in the country. And really, it’s 9th, given that they trail Yale and Evansville, each of whom played one Top 50 game (insert any and all “Evansville over UK” jokes here). Plus, I just like the blueprint of this team: three outstanding guards and a star center (only one of whom is a freshman), all of whom actually make free throws.
Michigan State is an interesting case. For a team that’s probably in line for a 5-seed right now, 16/1 is pretty poor value – you might end up better off with a “moneyline rollover” strategy. Regardless, I don’t think the futures value will get much better so long as MSU remains beloved by analytics (9th KenPom, 7th BartTorvik, 5th Haslametrics), and this one is more of a gut bet anyways. It’s very easy for me to envision a world where the Spartans rediscover the form many expected them to show when crowning them the preseason #1, and would you really be surprised by Tom Izzo and Cassius Winston capturing some March Magic?
Texas Tech is another team that is going to be hurt by its seed; turn the two overtime losses in late November/early December without Jahmi’us Ramsey into wins, and the Red Raiders would comfortably be in the 4-seed discussion. Since January 1st, Texas Tech is 7th in the country in BartTorvik’s rankings, indicating just how potent the Red Raiders can be when at full strength. And oh yeah, Chris Beard is still roaming the sidelines. He’s a smart dude.
Speaking of those two overtime losses – one of them was to Creighton, a team that is holding steady at its preseason odds of 80/1. The issues with the Bluejays are obvious: they only have one competent player standing over 6-5, and as a result, they can be exploited in the paint, particularly on the offensive glass. Still, Greg McDermott has weaponized their lack of size, mixing in five-out lineups with Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney as the “big men,” making the Bluejays extraordinarily hard to guard – all five players in that alignment can shoot or drive. It’s tough to sustain that throughout the full Tournament, but 80/1 for a team that’s 3-3 vs. Q1A competition is solid value.
If you’re looking for a “Syracuse in 2016” kind of long shot to make the Final Four, my best offer would be floundering Wichita State, who is 200/1 at Westgate; I still think they can right the ship and make a run.
As with any future – shop around if you can! Texas Tech is 40/1 at MGM casinos, and others likely have better values depending where you look.