-Jim Root
Note: rankings were voted on prior to Emoni Bates’ commitment.
Key Returners: Landers Nolley, DeAndre Williams, Alex Lomax, Lester Quinones
Key Losses: Moussa Cisse (transfer), DJ Jeffries (transfer), Boogie Ellis (transfer), Damion Baugh (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jalen Duren, Emoni Bates, Earl Timberlake (Miami FL), Chandler Lawson (Oregon), Josh Minott, Sam Onu, Johnathan Lawson, Tyler Harris (Iowa St.),
Lineup:
*** - Tyler Harris is not currently on the official roster as of this writing. Apparently he will be on the team as a walk-on, though - thank you to Jonathan McCauley on Twitter for the heads-up.
Outlook: Remember when Penny Hardaway loudly told the world that Memphis was going to win the national championship before the 2019-20 season? Well, it took an extra year, but Penny did win a postseason tournament championship! No one needs to mention that it was the NIT – details, details.
Though it’s not the banner the Tigers hoped to earn, that run through the NIT field – and winning 10 of their final 13 games prior to that – reminded everyone of the immense amount of talent that Penny had accumulated in his short tenure. This offseason saw significant roster turnover, but there’s no question that Memphis once again has a roster overflowing with high-level talent, and the lofty expectations – both internal and external – have returned as a result.
Memphis’ success stems from its swarming defense, as Hardaway has fully weaponized his long and athletic rosters to make life a living hell for opponents. The crux of the Tigers’ nearly impenetrable defenses has been elite rim protection, with both the 2021 (Moussa Cisse) and 2020 (Precious Achiuwa) versions possessing a 5-star freshman big man that swallowed shots like a Hungry, Hungry Hippo. Cisse actually lost minutes down the stretch last year, though, as his offensive limitations became tough to overcome and DeAndre Williams emerged into a two-way wrecking ball.
Even with Williams back, the headlines up front will likely go to Jalen Duren, a top 5 recruit who will take up the “monster freshman center” mantle. He’s not quite the shot-blocker that Cisse was (few are), but he’s still going to be an absolute menace in the paint thanks to his combination of size, bounce, and timing. Williams has the versatility to play alongside Duren, and that tag team looks like the foundation for a third straight top 5 ranking per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Malcolm Dandridge has proven to be a serviceable backup big, and incoming freshman Sam Onu adds further depth, but Williams and Duren will be the focal points of the frontcourt.
Hardaway mixes defenses, sometimes throwing out an extended matchup zone that flummoxed foes thanks to the immense length roaming the perimeter. Because it was a curveball and not the Tigers’ base defense, it often forced teams into elongated possessions as they tried to figure out what the heck they were up against. This is Mississippi State’s first time seeing that look in the NIT title game, and the befuddled Bulldogs use half the shot clock without making anything even resembling an offensive move:
Man-to-man is still the go-to look, though. The Tigers are flush with impact individual defenders, most notably Williams, and outside of point guard Alex Lomax, every rotation player could be 6’5 or taller (at 5’9, Tyler Harris provides guard depth, but he may face a playing time squeeze). Even the players that are not yet regarded as lockdown defenders have the physical tools to be outstanding on that end, and Penny will have copious lineup options where he can switch 1 through 4 or even 1 through 5.
Who actually starts is still up for debate, but it’s entirely possible Memphis starts a backcourt of Lester Quinones, Landers Nolley, and Miami transfer Earl Timberlake, all of whom can guard multiple positions. Timberlake in particular is a Swiss Army knife at 6’6, 215 pounds, and if he can stay healthy (like everyone on Miami’s roster, he struggled with injuries last year), he’ll be a vital part of the Tigers’ defensive structure. The Lawson brothers – freshman Johnathan Lawson and Oregon transfer Chandler Lawson – possess similar versatility, as does gangly wing recruit Josh Minott. Penny also gave his son, Jayden Hardaway, some spot minutes last year largely due to his defensive abilities. Sorting out playing time among this group will be one of the questions facing Penny, but especially on the defensive end, it’s one with few (if any) wrong answers.
From a statistical lens, we often worry about the dreaded regression monster in terms of opposing 3P%, and Memphis would appear to be a prime candidate for that after allowing 27.7% shooting from distance, the 2nd-lowest number in the country. However, Memphis’ size and consistent effort to contest shots makes that feel semi-sustainable (similar to AAC rival Houston), so even though that number probably rises to an extent, hovering around 30% again is a reasonable expectation.
With the defense looking like a near-certainty to be excellent, the questions about the offense will ultimately determine whether this team reaches the upper stratosphere of the sport. The Tigers simply have not valued possessions at a level necessary to be a national contender, consistently squandering opportunities with careless turnovers and ill-advised shots. Only Williams and Lomax truly have a “make my teammates better” kind of game, and having one (or both) on the court was absolutely vital for maximizing the overall performance of the team:
Williams does everything: he ranked 7th in the AAC in assist rate, 6th in offensive rebound rate, frequently got to the free throw line, and he hit over 45% of his triples. He became the fulcrum of the attack, initiating action from the block or the high post with a variety of cutting actions happening around him, and his vision unlocked a higher ceiling for the Tiger offense:
Lomax, meanwhile, lacks the recruiting pedigree of many of his teammates, but he’s a true point guard that can change the game with his passing. Timberlake adds a playmaking element from the wing, and he could end up being the primary ball-handler if Penny opts to start the jumbo backcourt sans Lomax.
Penny’s three teams have ranked 308th, 338th, and 262nd nationally in turnover rate, and the most glaring part of that is how many of them are unforced. Per KenPom, Memphis had a non-steal TO% of 13.2% in 2020-21, which ranked a dismal 343rd nationally. Those miscues are especially harmful because they prevent the Tigers’ army of athletes from having a chance to grab offensive rebounds. With Duren’s motor and physical stature, he’ll be a beast on the glass, and Williams and Dandridge will pull in their share of second shot opportunities as well – so long as Memphis actually gets shots up instead of giving the ball away. It has been a teamwide issue, and Penny will hope that added experience for what was an incredibly young team will help clean up some of the sloppiness.
Getting shots off is also beneficial considering the quality of shooters the Tigers have. Nolley and Quinones are both high-volume snipers, and though Nolley is often guilty of taking questionable jumpers, he’s allowed to do that when he’s knocking down 39% from beyond the arc. Williams being a potent outside threat as a big man further alleviates the Tigers’ spacing concerns, and Duren could absolutely feast in an open alignment that allows him to destroy 1v1 coverage on the block.
Free throw shooting was a severe issue for last year’s Tigers, but the primary culprits for those struggles (Cisse, DJ Jeffries) are gone, so Memphis could have a renaissance there (Dandridge is quite poor from the stripe, but he likely will not take many). If the team can simply be average from the line, rather than abysmal like last year, Memphis becomes even more of a threat to steal the AAC crown from Houston.
A final caveat to this preview (and really, it’s the caveat of all caveats): mega prospect Emoni Bates looks likely to pick the Tigers, though he has not yet officially announced his plans for next season after reclassifying from 2022. Bates is a ludicrous shot-maker for his size (a wiry 6’9), and he would immediately ascend to the top of the offensive pecking order. He’s extremely young, though, and he has many of the shot selection flaws that often plague Penny Hardaway’s teams, so it’s not an automatic that Memphis vaults into the top 10 if and when he joins the fold. We’re on the conservative side here at the Weave, so Memphis likely lands around 12-15th for us with Bates in tow.
Note: Bates officially committed on 8/25. As noted above, that slides the Tigers up into that 12-15ish range.
Bottom Line: Teams that win the NIT often end up with some level of hype entering the next year due to recency bias, but Memphis also has the benefit of a roster loaded with high-end talent. Plus, the scheme of playing through Williams feels like a sustainable strategy, and the defense will again be enormous and athletic. The whole “value every offensive possession” idea definitely raises some concerns, but there’s hope that adding the legendary Larry Brown to the coaching staff will have some magical effects on the overall team discipline. That could be wishful thinking for the soon-to-be 81-year-old, though. If the turnover problems are not solved (or at least lessened), then the Memphis ceiling will take a hit, but with Duren (and probably Bates), the upside for this team is way up in the clouds - perhaps even flirting with Penny’s “national championship” proclamation.