- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: JeeNathan Williams, Sr., Buffalo
Coach of the Year: Jim Whitesell, Buffalo
Newcomer of the Year: Jason Carter, R Sr., Ohio (welcome back)
Freshman of the Year: Ra’Heim Moss, R Fr., Toledo
Yes, peanut gallery, Jason Carter is projected on a team higher than Wilson, who I have starting over Carter. Don’t think about it, just go with the flow.
Tier 1
1. Buffalo
Key Returners: JeeNathan Williams, Josh Mballa, Ronaldo Segu, LaQuill Hardnett, Tra’Von Fagan, Keishawn Brewton, Brock Bertram, David Skogman
Key Losses: Jayvon Graves, David Nickelberry
Key Newcomers: Maceo Jack (George Washington), Ty Perry (Fordham), Curtis Jones (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Buffalo has been a MAC power for the better part of a decade, transitioning from Reggie Witherspoon to Bobby Hurley to Nate Oats and finally to Jim Whitesell in the present day. Last year Whitesell joined his three predecessors in leading his Bulls to a top 100 KenPom finish, capturing 2nd place in the MAC with a 12-6 mark. Oats took Buffalo to three NCAA Tournaments in four seasons – with four starters returning Whitesell has a legitimate shot to get the program back to the Dance in 2021-22.
Whitesell maintained Oats’s uptempo style of play when he took over in 2019-20. The Bulls played at the 11th fastest offensive tempo in the country last season and ranked in the top five in each of the three seasons prior. Always a dominant rebounding team, the Bulls took it to another level last season when they ranked 6th nationally in OR% (led the MAC). With last year’s frontcourt completely intact, expect more of the same in 2021-22. Offensively, UB wants to score firstly in transition and secondly by attacking the rim in the halfcourt. Only one team posted a higher FGA% at the rim last season; per Hoop-Math almost 50% of Buffalo’s FGA came near the cup. Outside shooting has been a small issue for the Bulls the past few seasons, but Whitesell adds plenty of help from the transfer portal to boost last year’s 33.9% clip.
Buffalo should be intimidating defensively once again this year. UB was the best defensive team in the MAC last season and posted the best DR% in conference play. Whitesell’s squad takes away the 3 and forces opponents to beat them off the bounce – they led the league in 3PA rate allowed and ranked 2nd in 3P% defense in 2020-21. Pick-n-rolls will consistently get destroyed by an athletic perimeter shell, and the reining MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa, still roams the paint.
Mballa anchors the Buffalo defense, but he’s also an impactful presence on the offensive end of the floor. He earned 2nd Team All-MAC honors last season after leading the conference in rebounding (two straight seasons #1 in OR%), and he’s an excellent finisher on the block.
Brock Bertram returns for his extra year, set to backup Mballa in the paint once again. Bertram’s a big body and capable shot blocker, a worthy substitute for when the star forward needs a breather. Sophomore David Skogman provides a different look up front with his ability to space the floor. He’ll act as a stretch 4 when he sees the court this season. Last year Skogman had an outburst of production against Miami OH, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in just 23 minutes of play.
LaQuill Hardnett will be the presumed starter at the 4-spot after starting 12 games last season and providing solid rebounding and defense. He plays a supporting role on offense, taking only high-percentage looks.
Mballa’s fellow 2nd Team All-MAC honoree, JeeNathan Williams, also returns to lead the Buffalo attack. Williams, simply put, is terrific – he scores any which way he wants and chips in on the defensive end as well. Last season Williams upped his outside shooting game, hitting 39% of his 3PA on medium volume – if that continues to develop, he will be impossible to stop. Williams is on the shortlist for MAC POY honors in his senior season.
The point guard position is in good hands with Ronaldo Segu’s return. Segu enjoyed a breakout season assuming the full-time starting role, shooting 39% from deep and getting into the lane at will. Most great teams start with a confident, experienced ball handler, and Buffalo has just that in Segu.
Key bench pieces Tra’Von Fagan and Keishawn Brewton should play important roles again in 2021-22. Fagan is a wing / 4 combo forward who brings size, versatility, and outside shooting to the floor. Brewton only played 12 games last season after transferring from Coastal Carolina; he previously played for Chipola JC under current Buffalo assistant coach Brendan Foley. Brewton is a shooter first and foremost, but he can play on the ball if necessary.
From the transfer portal comes George Washington import Maceo Jack, Fordham import Ty Perry, and JUCO transfer Curtis Jones. Jack played seven games for the Colonials before opting to transfer in late December of last year. He was a consistent starter in each of the two seasons prior, so perhaps he grew disgruntled with his new role. Jack is a very good outside shooter and a solid scoring wing. Perry was a partial starter for three years at Fordham – he brings, you guessed it, more shooting to the fold with a career 34% 3P clip. Jones started every game and averaged 12.4 PPG for JUCO powerhouse Indian Hills in 2020-21. He’s yet another good shooter, but he also is a natural point guard at 6’5”. All three players should assume key roles in the rotation this season.
With so much talent returning and coming in from the portal, Whitesell’s freshmen might be waiting a year before seeing significant action. 3-star PF Kuluel Mading is an intriguing prospect with length for days, athleticism, and a good-looking outside shot. Combo guard Kidtrell Blocker is a versatile scorer and super athlete out of Rochester. Zaakir Williamson is a wide-bodied big man with ball skills.
Bottom Line: Ohio might be garnering the most attention from preseason prognosticators, but Buffalo could be the best team in the MAC this season. Whitesell has an enviable combination of high-level talent and experience at a program accustomed to winning.
2. Ohio
Key Returners: Dwight Wilson, Ben Vander Plas, Lunden McDay, Mark Sears, Ben Roderick, Miles Brown, Colin Granger, Sam Towns
Key Losses: Jason Preston
Key Newcomers: Jason Carter (Xavier)
Lineup:
Outlook: The MAC’s Tourney rep and defeater of Virginia in Round 1 last season, the Bobcats enjoyed an amazing 2020-21 campaign. Jeff Boals led Ohio to an 81st rank in KenPom, the program’s highest rank since John Groce’s 2012 Sweet Sixteen squad. Only Jason Preston departs from last year, Ohio’s best player and the 33rd pick in the NBA Draft. The Bobcats think they have a worthy successor for Preston ready to take flight, and they welcome back a familiar face from the transfer portal.
Replacing a star player, particularly a PG, is never easy, but Ohio is in better shape than most with the return of sophomore Mark Sears. Sears was a MAC All-Freshman honoree last season, ranking 3rd in the league in assist rate while posting a miniscule 12.8% TO rate. When Preston was dealing with injuries and missed five games, Sears kept the ship afloat averaging 13.8 PPG in those contests and leading Ohio to a respectable 3-2 mark.
Sears was already one of the best scorers off ball screens in the country last season, scoring 1.071 PPP, good for the 95th percentile nationally per Synergy, and he should see a sizable leap in production and usage in 2021-22. A 1st Team All-MAC season is very much within the realm of possibility.
Sears will lead an offense that ranked 40th in the country last season per an adjusted efficiency standpoint (KenPom). Ball movement is king in Boals’s offensive attack, as is feeding the post to his talented frontcourt. Sears will have plenty of options to pass to with the return of four starters and the (re)addition of Jason Carter, who spent the past two seasons at Xavier.
The frontcourt triumvirate of Dwight Wilson, Ben Vander Plas, and Jason Carter is one of the best of the in the country. Boals has a good problem with sorting out who to start among his talented forwards. Wilson and Vander Plas are the incumbents, and both players earned spots on the MAC’s All-Conference 3rd Team last season.
Wilson, a former James Madison transfer, is one of the top rebounders in the league and ranked 3rd in the MAC in O-rating last year. He’s a beast on the block in post-up situations and keeps possessions alive with his strength on the glass. Vander Plas enjoyed his best collegiate season as a junior, shooting 36% from downtown and ranking 2nd on the team in MPG behind Preston. While he might not look it, Vander Plas is a very talented scorer and facilitator – he ranked 3rd on Ohio in assist rate last season, and it’ll be hard for Boals to keep him off the floor with the variety of ways he can score the basketball.
It’s hard to believe Carter could conceivably come off the bench after being a 2-year starter for Ohio and a 2-year starter for freaking Xavier. Back in 2018-19 Carter led the Bobcats in scoring (16.7 PPG) and rebounding (6.7 RPG) on his way to a 3rd Team All-MAC season. The 2x All-MAC honoree can shoot the 3, put the ball on the deck, and rebound with anyone in the conference. Whether he or Vander Plas can play the 3 is still an unknown. Boals didn’t recruit Carter – the 5th year senior left town when Saul Phillips was fired – but Carter’s talent is undeniable, and he’s unquestionably one of the five best players on the team. We may see several starting looks this season depending on matchup.
MAC All-Defense Team member Lunden McDay is back for another season and likely resumes his starting 2-guard role. McDay is a classic 3-and-D wing who can get to the rim when called upon. Fellow wing Ben Roderick is the incumbent starter at the 3; he shot 39.6% from deep last season with his smooth lefty stroke.
Ohio isn’t super deep this season, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing – the Bobcats have arguably the best top six in the MAC. Boals’s squad ranked just 307th in bench minutes last year, so he’s comfortable with playing his studs major minutes. Backup guard Miles Brown will be a part of the rotation in some fashion; he’s a skilled perimeter player who shot 35% from 3 in 2020-21. Frontcourt reserves Colin Granger and Sam Towns might see limited time with Carter’s arrival.
Boals’s two freshmen, AJ Clayton and IJ Ezuma, have bright futures in the Green & White. Clayton is a 3-star forward who reclassed from 2022. He’s a skilled player but might not find a role right away. Ezuma comes from Hargrave Military Academy; he’s a big man who owns the paint, blocks shots, and dunks rudely on anyone. Ezuma is very active and very aggressive, two things that transfer to the college level.
Bottom Line: Ohio will be the hunted in the MAC this season after its tournament run and capturing of the 2021 auto-bid. The Bobcats have an experienced lineup heavy on upperclassmen, but will life be so easy without Jason Preston? Mark Sears has high expectations on his shoulders – we’ll see if he can deliver.
Tier 2
3. Bowling Green
Key Returners: Daeqwon Plowden, Trey Diggs, Kaden Metheny, Caleb Fields, Josiah Fulcher, Cam Young, Matiss Kulackovskis
Key Losses: Justin Turner, Jacob Washington, Dylan Swingle***
Key Newcomers: Joe Reece (Old Dominion), Samari Curtis (Evansville), Myron Gordon (Samford), Brenton Mills (Binghamton), Gabe O’Neal (Kent State)
*** Shortly before the release of this preview, Swingle announced he was leaving the team. He is no longer on the roster
Lineup:
Outlook: After Bowling Green’s surprisingly awesome 2018-19 season the Falcons have been picked to win the MAC in each of the past two years. While 22-14 in conference play over that stretch is nothing to scoff at, there’s a feeling that BGSU has under-achieved. Michael Huger enters his 7th year as head coach of the program, coming off his second KenPom top 150 finish in the last three seasons. He has the talent in 2021-22 to crack the top 100, which would be the school’s first since awful announcer Dan Dakich did so in 2002, but that talent must finally live up to lofty expectations. Taking care of business at home would be a nice start – the Falcons were an ugly 4-7 at Stroh Center last year compared to a muscular 10-3 road record. Per Haslametrics BGSU was the best road team in the country last season, boasting wins at Ohio, Akron, Toledo, Buffalo, and Ball State. If the Falcons can repeat that success on the road and protect homecourt, they could be looking at their first NCAA Tournament berth since 1968.
There’s an embarrassing amount of riches on this roster this season even with the loss of program great Justin Turner. Everyone else of significance returns and Huger adds five DI transfers to the mix, flexing the extra scholarships allotted from the COVID season. 5th year seniors Daeqwon Plowden and Trey Diggs will be the leaders, each opting to rejoin the Falcons after a disappointing 2020-21 campaign. Plowden, a 3rd Team All-MAC performer, gets to put on his alpha pants and ascend into the Falcons’ #1 weapon.
Plowden’s ability to play the 3, 4, or even 5 gives Huger tons of flexibility, and his two-way impact on the floor makes him one of the most valuable players in the MAC.
Diggs is the reigning MAC 6th Man of the Year, a role he might reprise this season with the influx of transfer talent. Like Plowden, Diggs can play several positions on the court, and he adds spacing to the offense with his 38% career 3P clip.
Bowling Green has ranked in the top ten in TO rate the past two seasons primarily thanks to Turner, who handled the ball the lion’s share of the time and rarely turned it over. With his departure a new primary ball handler must emerge, leading to speculation we could see BGSU’s TO rate fall back down to Earth.
Kaden Metheny seems the most logical choice to take on traditional PG duties. He earned MAC All-Freshman honors last season and proved to be very tough and steady with the ball in his hands. A classic “pound the rock” point guard, Metheny hammers the ball into oblivion on every dribble, a sign of a poised, confident, and well-coached player.
Senior guard Caleb Fields could also see time on the ball. He started every game last season but was largely inefficient. Shot selection has been his kryptonite throughout his career, and if it doesn’t improve, he might get passed up in the rotation for some of the incoming transfers.
The remaining returners include Dylan Swingle, Cam Young, and Mattiss Kulackovskis up front, and Josiah Fulcher and Chandler Turner on the wing. Swingle is a lumberjack of a man standing 6’10” and weighing in at 295 pounds. He’s a juxtaposition in Huger’s uptempo style, but he brings value as a space eater on defense and decent rebounder / finisher. Kulackovskis missed last season with injury but played a key role off the pine in 2019-20. Unlike Swingle, he can space the floor and provides a similar rebounding impact. Young is a 3/4 tweener who primarily plays up front and rebounds like a center. He’s a good defender, long, and athletic.
Fulcher was the other Falcon to grace the MAC’s All-Freshman Team, but he’ll need to improve his consistency in year two. We saw flashes of Fulcher’s potential last season, like his 23-point performance against Kent State in just 22 minutes. Turner isn’t related to Justin, but he did play at the same high school (which is a wild coincidence). He was seldom used on the wing last year, but, like Fulcher, did have his moments.
Huger has several new mouths to feed arriving from the transfer portal, and there’s certainly a question as to whether he can keep everyone happy. Samari Curtis (Evansville), Myron Gordon (Samford), and Brenton Mills (Binghamton) were all high usage players at their previous stops and accustomed to being the featured guy while on the floor (not to mention seeing a ton of playing time). Curtis began his career at Nebraska and was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school. He is crazy talented and could be BGSU’s most gifted offensive player. Last season Curtis shot 38% from deep and ranked in the 97th percentile in PPP coming off ball screens, per Synergy. He should fit in perfectly in Huger’s offense.
Gordon and Mills were both the best players at their previous stops. Gordon played just nine games for Samford last season but started every game the year prior. He lets it fly from anywhere on the floor and attacks the basket with reckless abandon. Mills knocked down 40% of his triples last season on his way to earning 3rd Team All-America East honors. He’s another highly talented guard who can create his own shot when called upon.
Joe Reece (Old Dominion) and Gabe O’Neal (Kent State) will fortify the frontcourt. Reece started every game for ODU last season and could start for BGSU as well depending on Huger’s lineup preferences (does he want Plowden at the 3?). Reece is long, can play the 4 or 5, and is a tough defender and rebounder, in true ODU fashion. O’Neal is a burly big man who can man the center spot and provide glass cleaning services.
As alluded to earlier, Huger likes an uptempo style. BGSU is going to run a lot and try to score in transition, especially with the ridiculous amount of guard depth at its disposal. When in the halfcourt, BGSU employs a pick-n-roll centric attack. Shooting needs to improve for the Falcons to ascend on this end of the floor – they ranked just 11th in the MAC last year with a paltry 31% 3P%.
Defense is usually decent under Huger, and last year it was satisfactorily average. Huger has a ton of switchable, multi-positional players he can use to throw curveballs and pressure at opposing ball handlers.
Bottom Line: This should be Huger’s deepest and arguably most talented team he’s ever had at Bowling Green. A top three finish in the MAC should be the baseline expectation, and an NCAA Tourney should be the (very attainable) goal. If all breaks right and the transfers acclimate, Bowling Green could be a borderline top 75 team in 2021-22.
4. Toledo
Key Returners: Ryan Rollins, Setric Millner, JT Shumate, Keshaun Sanders
Key Losses: Marreon Jackson, Spencer Littleson, AJ Edu (injury)***, Mattia Acunzo, Jonathan Komagum
Key Newcomers: Ra’Heim Moss (Redshirt), RayJ Dennis (Boise State), Elijah Wilson, EJ Farmer, Arnor Eythorsson, Kooper Jacobi, Mihai Carcoana, Jordan Burge (JUCO)
*** Edu tore his ACL this summer and will miss the entire season
Lineup:
Outlook: 2020-21 was a season to remember for the Toledo Rockets. 15 wins in the MAC set the school’s all-time single season conference record, and propelled head coach Tod Kowalczyk to winning Coach of the Year honors. Alas, Toledo fell short of its ultimate goal, the NCAA Tournament, and instead had to settle for a 3-seed in the NIT. Despite Kowalczyk’s success during his 11-year tenure, success that includes finishing in KenPom’s top 100 three times (twice in the past three years), he’s never led his Rockets to the Big Dance.
Toledo hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1980, which blew my mind considering it has been atop or near the top of the MAC standings for the better part of a decade. Kowalczyk has his work cut out for him this season with the loss of MAC POY Marreon Jackson, 2nd Team All-MAC performer Spencer Littleson, and, most recently, big man AJ Edu to yet another knee injury. But, Kowalczyk is used to out-performing preseason expectations, and his team has enough talent to compete near the top of the league once again.
Offense has been Kowalczyk’s specialty during his time in Toledo. Under his command the Rockets have ranked in the top 50 of KenPom’s adj. OE four times, and last year cracked the top 20. Shooting and ball movement are the keys to Kowalczyk’s attack – the Rockets take and make a ton of long-balls, as shown by last year’s 26th highest 3PA rate yielding the nation’s 29th best 3P%. Toledo is always among the nation’s leaders in assist rate, and Kowalczyk always seems to have a reliable point guard immune to turning the ball over. His teams always lean more uptempo, opting to push in transition when given the chance – this was especially true last year when forced to play a small lineup most of the time.
With Edu’s latest injury, Kowalczyk will be forced to go small once again. That means former DII transfer and senior JT Shumate will likely start at the 5, giving the Rockets a deadly 5-out attack on the offensive end. Shumate was thrust into the starting center role last season and completely owned it. Despite standing just 6’7” he ranked 4th in the MAC in block rate and hardly missed when he shot the ball on the other end, ranking 5th in the country in o-rating. Shumate is also a vocal leader on the squad and always seems to be in the right position on the floor. He’ll play quarterback from the frontcourt in his final(?) collegiate season.
By far the most intriguing returner is sophomore Ryan Rollins, the reigning MAC Freshman of the Year. Rollins started every game as a rookie and promises to be one of the MAC’s best players in 2021-22. While efficiency and shooting accuracy could stand to be improved, there’s every indication Rollins is on an exponential developmental path, as reports hold him in high standards as a gym rat and hard worker.
Replacing Jackson won’t be easy, but at least Toledo will know who their alpha will be on offense this season.
Returners Setric Millner and Keshaun Sanders figure to be in the starting five as well on day one. Millner started every game last season after transferring from Cleveland State. He’ll play the 4 and give Toledo a little bit of everything on the floor – “solid” is a perfect word to describe his game; he’s a solid rebounder, solid scorer, solid defender, and solid passer. Sanders came off the bench last year after starting a handful of games as a freshman. He’s a long, athletic wing who has a sparking 38% 3P clip for his 2-year career. Look for him to blossom in a bigger role.
Point guard play is crucial to any team, but especially to one who just lost the best PG in its conference. Boise State transfer RayJ Dennis appears poised to step in and take the reins after starting 24 games last season for the Broncos. Dennis is a capable table setter and creator, but he is a significant downgrade from Jackson in the shooting department. Sophomore Jamere Hill will also be in the mix for PG reps after his freshman season was cut short to just 10 games following a foot injury. Hill is a quick basket attacker with plenty of growth potential.
A slew of fresh faces flood Toledo this season and parsing out which ones will be truly impactful involves some (educated) guesswork. Redshirt freshman Ra’Heim Moss should be a factor in the lineup after sitting out last season; he is a ridiculously athletic wing with a football background (scholarship offers from UK and Cincy). JUCO transfer Jordan Burge adds more athleticism, but he likely plays a deeper support role in the backcourt.
Of the true freshmen, Romanian big man Mihai Carcoana could be the most impactful given Toledo’s severe lack of size. Carcoana is long and dunks everything within a couple feet of the hoop; he can be a rim deterrent for the Rockets but must improve his foot quickness. Forward Kooper Jacobi, a borderline 3-star out of Indiana, has promise as a do-everything wing with his shooting ability and work ethic. Fellow forward Arnor Eythorsson, an Icelandic stretch 4, is a likely a year or two away from contributing.
Wings Elijah Wilson and EJ Farmer could both crack the rotation in some fashion this season. Wilson adds size on the perimeter, can score at all three levels, and defend. Farmer has a deadly lefty stroke and a frame that could develop nicely with some weight training.
Kowalczyk’s teams have been hit or miss defensively during his time at Toledo. The Rockets were the 3rd best defensive team in the MAC last season, but they had a ton of shooting luck on this end. Opposing MAC teams shot under 30% from deep against Toledo last season (lowest in the MAC) despite the Rockets allowing the 2nd highest 3PA rate in the league. That’s due for regression, especially given the absence of Littleson (MAC All-Defense) and lack of elite perimeter athletes. Kowalczyk’s principles should form a solid floor, however. His teams always force the opposition to beat them in isolation, and his teams are always among the nation’s best at disallowing trips to the FT line.
Bottom Line: Toledo is once again in position to compete for a MAC title, but this team is down a peg or two from the top-75 squad last year that featured Marreon Jackson. Kowalczyk is an excellent coach and gets the most out of his talent, but the top half of the MAC is as hyper competitive as always.
5. Kent State
Key Returners: Malique Jacobs, Tervell Beck, Justyn Hamilton, Giovanni Santiago, Jeremiah Hernandez
Key Losses: Danny Pippen, Michael Nuga, Gabe O’Neal, James Jordan
Key Newcomers: Sincere Carry (Duquesne), Andrew Garcia (Georgia), DJ Johnson (Rhode Island), Akeem Odusipe (Vanderbilt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Rob Senderoff led his Golden Flashes to yet another top four MAC finish in 2020-21. In ten seasons under Sendy Kent State has finished below .500 just once, all the way back in 2013-14. Last season was KSU’s best KenPom finish under Senderoff, as the Flashes knocked on the door of the top 100. With four starters back and the addition of a couple big-time transfers, KSU looks every bit capable of competing for the MAC auto-bid.
Danny Pippen departs from last season, the MAC leader in usage, a 1st Team All-MAC honoree, and Kent State’s best player. Pippen was nothing short of unstoppable, and the Flashes will certainly miss his output. Senderoff employs a balanced attack but one that prioritizes getting the ball to the basket. KSU ranked in the top 50 of %FGA at the rim last season per Hoop-Math. Offensive rebounding is a huge part of KSU’s game as well – the Flashes were the MAC’s 2nd best offensive rebounding squad in 2020-21 and the 25th best in the country. Pippen was part of that success, but with the return of frontcourt starters Tervell Beck and Justyn Hamilton, the Flashes should be just as fierce in this department this season.
Beck and Hamilton are both former transfers, Beck from UNLV and Hamilton from Temple. Both are long forwards and monsters on the offensive glass; Hamilton ranked 3rd in the league in OR% last season. Beck developed his outside shooting more in 2020-21, hitting 15 of his 33 3PA; he’s a great finisher inside and ranked 4th in the MAC in FT rate last year. Hamilton is a defensive presence who ranked 5th in the league in block rate last season. He’ll be a factor offensively posting up, coming off rolls, and competing on the boards.
KSU was actually better defensively when Pippen sat, giving up just .986 PPP when he rode the pine versus 1.009 when he played. With Beck and Hamilton the primary 4 and 5, KSU should remain stout defensively (they ranked 2nd in the MAC in adj. DE in 2020-21). Of course, the return of All-Defensive Team member Malique Jacobs helps as well.
Jacobs can play point or off the ball on the wing and should be one of the better two-way players in the MAC this season. In 2020-21 he ranked 9th in the MAC in assist rate, 2nd in FT rate, 5th in steal rate, and 15th in block rate. He’ll impact every part of the box score in 2021-22.
Returning in the backcourt with Jacobs is junior Giovanni Santiago, another guard who can handle the rock or play off the ball. Santiago is the best shooter on the team and is coming off a year in which he canned 44% of his 3PA. Santiago led the Flashes in minutes and has unlimited range, but he’s more than just a shooter – he has a dynamic element to his game and can run an offense.
Sophomores Jeremiah Hernandez and VonCameron Davis will look scrap for bigger roles this season, but incoming transfers might hold them to limited minutes. Hernandez is a guard who had an inefficient season in 2020-21; Davis is a wing / forward who saw action in just 10 games last year.
Duquesne transfer Sincere Carry and Georgia transfer Andrew Garcia bring a massive talent influx with them to Kent, Ohio. Carry should assume starting PG duties after racking up assists for the Dukes the past 2.5 years. Carry opted to transfer after just five games last season; he could be a star in the MAC and can function as a scorer or facilitator in Senderoff’s offense.
Garcia was a stud at Stony Brook, notching a spot on the league’s All-Conference 2nd Team prior to transferring to UGA. With the Bulldogs Garcia averaged nearly 9 PPG in just over 17 MPG and led the SEC in OR%. He can play the 3 or 4 but is better at the 4 where he can create mismatches and use his strength / speed combo to overpower opponents.
Two other transfers, DJ Johnson out of Rhode Island and Akeem Odusipe out of Vanderbilt, could also play roles this season. Johnson played 25 games for the Rams and shot 38.5% from 3 – his role will be shoot 3s and play D. Odusipe was used sparingly as a freshman but posted insane rebounding rates when he did. He bolsters a very good KSU frontline.
Freshmen Cli’Ron Hornbeak, Julian Rollins, and Jalen Sullinger likely won’t contribute much in year one. Hornbeak is a big, strong forward who needs to improve his conditioning. Rollins is a wing out of Chicago. Sullinger is former OSU player JJ Sullinger’s son and former NBA forward Jared Sullinger’s nephew. He’s a quick, tough PG with handles and pedigree.
Bottom Line: It’s rinse, wash, repeat for Kent State and Rob Senderoff this season. The Flashes will be a top five or six MAC squad with auto-bid potential and regular season title-winning ability.
6. Akron
Key Returners: Bryan Trimble, Ali Ali, Enrique Freeman, Greg Tribble, Michael Wynn, Mikal Dawson, Garvin Clarke
Key Losses: Loren Cristian Jackson, Maishe Dailey, Camron Reece, Jermaine Marshall
Key Newcomers: Xavier Castaneda (South Florida), KJ Walton (Ball State)
Lineup:
Outlook: Akron’s 2020-21 season took awhile to get off the ground. The Zips’ first game came on December 12th and their first DI game didn’t occur until December 15th. After a somewhat rocky start, Akron quickly found its groove and rode it to a 12-6 MAC finish, good for 3rd place in the league. John Groce exceeded expectations once again and had his team sitting in the KenPom top 100 in late February prior to a three-game end of regular season losing skid. Groce enters his 5th year at the helm of Akron looking for the first Tourney bid of his tenure. 2019-20 was the year everything came together, as Akron was by far the best team in the league and set up for a potential 13-seed in March, alas we all know how that ended. The Zips should be solid once again, but they lose one of the MAC’s best players in Loren Cristian Jackson – replacing his production will be no easy task.
LCJ was the heart and soul of this program last season and ranked 7th in the country in usage. There is simply no replacing that, but Groce will turn to the transfer portal for help. South Florida’s Xavier Castaneda arrives off his best collegiate season with the Bulls, finally buttoning down his historically poor TO rate and shooting a scorching 38.7% from outside the arc. Castaneda is not the caliber player Jackson was, but he can be a scorer for the Zips at the point of attack and facilitate in the halfcourt.
With Jackson’s departure likely comes a dip in offensive efficiency, an area in which Akron has ranked in the top 75 each of the past two seasons. Akron led the MAC in 3PA rate last year (19th nationally), bombing away from distance every chance it got. The Zips were among the best in the country at taking good shots, rarely setting for mid-range jumpers and ensuring to get a 3 or near-rim shot almost every possession. The theory will remain the same this season, but the execution will suffer without LCJ. Jackson was the primary (pretty much only) benefactor of ball screens, and he used them with great success. Castaneda, along with backup PG Garvin Clarke, an off-the-bench high usage sparkplug, will be thrust into the ball-screen heavy attack but with far less firepower at their disposal.
Three full-time starters return for Akron in HM All-MAC guard Bryan Trimble, wing Ali Ali, and big man Enrique Freeman, giving the Zips decent continuity. Trimble, a former St. John’s transfer, took to Akron like a fish to water in 2020-21, knocking down 41.5% of his 3PA. His range is unlimited, and his gravity gives the other four Zips on the floor plenty of space to work on offense.
Ali is a glue guy, a 6’8” 3/4 tweener who can shoot the 3, defend, and be effective off the bounce. He’ll do a little of everything for the Zips this season and likely start at the 4 alongside Freeman. Freeman made the league’s All-Defense Team last season after leading the MAC in block rate. Despite his skinny stature, he’s incredibly difficult to score against, even for burlier postmen.
Freeman also was one of the best defensive rebounders in the country last year, ranking 10th in DR% nationally (and 1st in the MAC). Offensively, he’s a monster on the boards (2nd in the MAC in OR% last year) and shot 94% of his attempts at the rim last season.
Groce’s other returners include guard Greg Tribble, wings Michael Wynn and Mikal Dawson, and center Aziz Bandaogo. Tribble is a slasher who started the last four games of the season in 2020-21. He is incredibly athletic and blazing quick and has the potential to develop into a reliable scorer in his third season. Wynn is a former Wake transfer, a skilled offensive player who scored double-digits three times off the bench last year. Dawson is a shooting wing looking to improve on his 32% 2020-21 3P clip. Bandaogo is raw and was seldom used last year; if he ever does develop, he’ll be a shot-blocking and rebounding nightmare.
Ball State transfer KJ Walton is Akron’s biggest offseason addition. Walton is entering his 6th collegiate season after enrolling in Mizzou in the fall of 2016. Walton has only improved every single year, and he can be Akron’s leading scorer and a high usage work horse in his Van Wilder season. The most curious part of Walton’s game is his complete lack of outside shot – despite standing 6’3” Walton attempted just three 3-pointers last season; he’s all slash all the time.
The three freshmen joining the Zip ranks are Kobe Mitchell, Nate Johnson, and Sekou Kalle. Mitchell is the most intriguing of the bunch, a former HS quarterback and his HS’s all-time leading scorer. He’s a quick guard who can shoot and handle the rock. Johnson will be deep on the PG depth chart; Kalle will provide frontcourt depth.
Akron should be strong defensively once again, perhaps even better with the return of Freeman and Ali. LCJ wasn’t a great defender and neither was fellow starter Maishe Dailey. The Zips deny the 3 at all costs and funnel ball handlers into the paint where they dare them to shoot over the outstretched arms of Freeman.
Bottom Line: Akron is set up to challenge for its third straight top four league finish. Buffalo, Bowling Green, and Ohio will certainly be favored to finish higher, but the Zips have plenty of talent and a good coach on the sidelines with which to vie for a MAC title and bid to the NCAA Tournament.
7. Miami Ohio
Key Returners: Dae Dae Grant, Mekhi Lairy, Dalonte Brown, Isaiah Coleman-Lands, Myja White, James Beck, Elijah McNamara, Precious Ayah, Javin Etzler
Key Losses: Milos Jovic, Josh Brewer
Key Newcomers: Kamari Williams (Boston College)
Lineup:
Outlook: Everyone is back for a Miami OH RedHawks team that slightly overachieved in 2021-22. Miami already ranked 28th in KenPom’s continuity ranking last season, and Bart Torvik pegs the RedHawks as having the 13th most returning minutes in the country this year. Jack Owens led Miami to its first over-.500 mark in the MAC during his 4-year tenure and the school’s first since 2011. He’s kept Miami competitive every season but has yet to truly compete at the top of the league. Surely this will be the season the RedHawks make some noise and crack the top 4 or 5 of the MAC, right?
Not so fast! Continuity does not automatically equal improvement. How much better can we really expect a team that went 9-8 in the MAC as mostly juniors and seniors to fare as seniors and 5th years? And a more pressing question – will Miami’s roster makeup ever lead to real success?
There’s no doubt as to the talent level of Miami’s guards this season. Dae Dae Grant, Mekhi Lairy, Isaiah Coleman-Lands, and Myja White are all talented and a few are even very good-to-excellent one-on-one players. That’s the problem, though – individual players. Miami has consistently lagged behind most teams in the country in assist rate; it scores on offense via the dribble and relying on its talented backcourt to make tough shots, a lot of which are jumpers. That’s not a formula for sustained success – poor shot selection often does not yield winning.
Grant was a 3rd Team All-MAC selection last season and could be a true star in the league in his junior year. He improved his 3P% to a robust 40% last season, but shot just 38% from inside the arc, a consequence of forcing tough shots. Grant can beat just about anyone in the MAC off the dribble, be it off ball screens or in isolation, but he’ll need to be choosier with his shot attempts for Miami to ascend to the next level as a team.
Point guard Lairy was more efficient inside the arc last year than Grant, but he fell into the iso trap far too often as well last season. His turnover rate also increased, an issue he’ll need to button down to become one of the better lead guards in the conference. Lairy is a fun player to watch with his diminutive size, athleticism, and lighting quickness. He ranked 7th in the league in FT rate last season and shot 40% from deep, an extremely tough combination to guard in space.
Coleman-Lands is probably Miami’s 3rd best guard, but he has embraced the 6th man role. ICL can come off the pine and run point or play off the ball while providing solid offense and arguably the best perimeter defense on the roster. He is a culprit of poor shot selection as well, meaning it’s likely a good thing he doesn’t start alongside Lairy and Grant. White is much more of a specific role player – he started the team’s final 15 games last season and provides shooting on the wing. In 2021-22 White shot 42% from the land of plenty.
Miami is a guard-oriented team, but possibly its most important player resides in the frontcourt. Dalonte Brown, a 4-year starter, is back for his bonus season giving the RedHawks three starters who averaged double figures in scoring in 2020-21. Brown took his outside shot to another level last year, hitting 37% of his 3PA, and ranked 4th in the MAC in DR% on the other end. His ability to impact the game in multiple facets makes him an invaluable fulcrum to the lineup.
Returning forwards James Beck, Elijah McNamara, and Precious Ayah will compete for minutes alongside Brown, and each started a handful of games last season. Beck played well after sitting out in 2019-20 following his transfer from Oakland. He ranked 6th in the MAC in OR% and impacts the game with his mobility, athleticism, and length. McNamara is the best shot-blocker of the bunch, though he’s more limited offensively. Ayah, another 5th year RedHawk, plays bigger than his 6’6” frame, using his body weight to push around weaker opponents in the paint.
Owens won’t need to go too far into his bench with the number of guys he returns, but Boston College transfer Kamari Williams almost certainly finds a spot in the rotation. Williams started three games for BC last season and adds length, versatility, and shooting to the perimeter. Returning stretch big Javin Etzler could also see more run in his sophomore season. Freshmen Curtis Harrison IV, an athletic wing, and Shamar “Marr” Avance, a heady point guard, are likely a season away from regular minutes.
Miami played at the MAC’s slowest offensive tempo last season, and frankly I wonder why. Owens’s roster makeup is prime for a transition-based attack, but a slower more methodical halfcourt offense lends to Miami’s poor shot selection, often a result of late-clock situations. Owens has played this way all four years he’s been at the helm, so expecting a change in style is probably futile.
The RedHawks were just an average defensive team last season, par for the course under Owens. They were crushed at the rim and from behind the arc, a bad recipe for success. With the same so-so perimeter defenders returning and an undersized frontcourt, expect more of the same in 2021-22.
Bottom Line: From a pure talent perspective Miami is a top half team in the MAC. Unfortunately, basketball is a team game, and we haven’t seen the RedHawks function in a consistent team fashion under Owens in four seasons. 10 or 11 MAC wins isn’t out of the question, and you can bet Miami takes down a couple of the top dogs, but will the shot selection and defense improve enough to sustain competitiveness for a full conference slate?
Tier 3
8. Ball State
Key Returners: Luke Bumbalough, Miryne Thomas, Kani Acree, Blake Huggins, Jalen Windham, Teemu Suokas, Ben Hendriks
Key Losses: Ishmael El-Amin, KJ Walton, Brachen Hazen, Jarron Coleman, Zach Gunn
Key Newcomers: Tyler Cochran (Northern Illinois), Demarius Jacobs (Saint Louis), Mickey Pearson (TCU), Reggie Jones (Tulsa / Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: It was another ho-hum year for the Ball State Cardinals under James Whitford. A near-.500 MAC season, a top 150 KenPom finish – par for the course from what we’ve seen recently out of Muncie. If you take out BSU’s 2019-20 season in which they finished 113th in KenPom, the Cardinals have stayed between 133rd and 180th five out of the past six seasons. Last year was a bit of a disappointment for Ball State, but the team also dealt with an array of injuries and COVID issues. There’s little surprise the Cardinals didn’t live up to expectations. Whitford enters his 9th season in Muncie with a team that will likely finish inside the top 200, but its ceiling doesn’t raise too far above its floor.
Whitford molds his offensive style to his personnel, having played a multitude of ways during his head coaching tenure. BSU has usually been a 3-point reliant team under Whitford and four of the past five seasons it’s been an uptempo one as well. Last year Whitford put the offense in his talented guards’ hands, running the 14th highest rate of pick-n-roll in the country. This year’s team might play a slightly different style in the halfcourt – there is no Ishmael El-Amin or Jarron Coleman to create this season.
Ball State’s calling card the past few seasons has been its defense, ranking 72nd in Adj. DE per KenPom in 2018-19 and 32nd in 2019-20. BSU fell back a tad last year, primarily due to losing Tahjai Teague, but the Cards were still a respectable team on this end ranking 6th in the MAC in Adj. DE. Whitford likes to force opposing teams to beat his squad off the dribble and eliminate catch-and-shoot opportunities. Personnel turnover indicates BSU might be stronger on this end in 2021-22.
Junior guard Luke Bumbalough likely takes on full-time PG duties after splitting them last season. He played the 2nd most minutes on the team last year and shot 36% from downtown. Bumbalough is a solid player who can manage the game and provide shooting when off the ball.
His fellow backcourt returners won’t be guaranteed increased roles this season with the incoming transfer talent. Teemu Suokas, a Finnish shooter, is a one-dimensional player on offense. Jalen Windham, who began his career at Creighton, missed a lot of last season due to COVID protocols. He could be due for a minutes boost, but was largely inefficient in limited time last year.
The returners being uninspiring means we should see plenty of minutes from NIU transfer Tyler Cochran and SLU transfer Demarius Jacobs. Cochran led the Huskies in scoring, rebounding, and steals last season but his year was cut short due to COVID and injury. He rebounds like a forward, gets to the rim, and can post smaller guards with ease. Jacobs was a starter for the Billikens in 2019-20 but saw a reduced role last season. He’s a good shooter (career 36% from 3) and tough guard capable of vying for a starting spot on the wing.
Freshman combo guard Jaylin Sellers is talented, but he might be a year or two away from contributing.
On the wing look for former Tulsa transfer Reggie Jones to claim a starting role after missing last season with a knee injury. He was a MAC All-Freshman team member back in 2016-17 with Western Michigan and started seven games for Tulsa’s AAC championship squad in 2019-20. Jones does a bit of everything on the floor and is an excellent passer for his position. He’ll almost certainly pass up returning wing Kani Acree in the rotation, who was very inefficient last season and just a 22% career 3P shooter. TCU transfer Mickey Pearson can play on the wing, but his size makes him a better candidate for the 4-spot. Pearson played 19 games for the Horned Frogs last season as a freshman and brings shooting and defensive versatility to the fold.
Returning starter Miryne Thomas likely resumes his starting 4-man role. He began his career at UMES and has been a fierce rebounder throughout college. Thomas really improved his outside shooting last season, evolving into a legit 3P threat with a 47% clip.
Competing for the starting 5-spot are two uninspiring options in Blake Huggins and Ben Hendriks. Their qualifications for being in consideration for playing are… they are big. Huggins is at least a solid offensive rebounder and decent shot blocker; Hendriks has yet to really provide a meaningful impact. Freshmen Basheer Jihad and Payton Sparks could find playing time simply due to a lack of frontcourt competition. Jihad is talented and long. Sparks can clear space with his size and battle on the glass.
Bottom Line: I’ve used “uninspiring” twice in this preview, which should give a pretty good indication of how I feel about Ball State this season. There is a noticeable lack of talent on the roster and an absence of a true creator and/or go-to scorer. Whitford might have a solid floor as a head coach, but this could conceivably be his worst team since 2014-15, the last time he finished outside the KenPom top 200.
9. Eastern Michigan
Key Returners: Bryce McBride, Darion Spottsville, Thomas Binelli, Derek Ballard
Key Losses: Ty Groce, Noah Morgan, Drew Lowder, Yeikson Montero, Miles Gibson, Chris James
Key Newcomers: Monty Scott (Portland State), Noah Farrakhan (East Carolina), Colin Golson (Siena), Nate Scott (Northern Illinois), Kevin-David Rice (JUCO), Mo Njie
Lineup:
Outlook: EMU suffered through a rough COVID-riddled season, managing to play just 18 games, and winning only three of those against DI opponents. It was a sour ending to Rob Murphy’s 10-year stint at the helm; the Eagles never should’ve been ranked 155th in the preseason, but their 289th KenPom finish was a disappointment. Murphy wasn’t a bad coach – he had EMU playing competitive basketball for the majority of his tenure, and his Eagle squads were always tough on defense in Jim Boeheim’s patented 2-3 zone. But after a decade it was clear a change was needed. In Murphy’s stead steps EMU alum Stan Heath.
Heath is a 17-year coaching veteran and has been the head guy at three different colleges. He led 10-seed Kent State to the 2002 Elite Eight, parlaying that effort into the Arkansas job where he made two NCAA Tournaments in five seasons. After Arkansas Heath stepped down to South Florida where he produced so-so results over seven seasons – though getting the Bulls to their first NCAAT since 1992 (and still only one since) in 2012 is nothing short of impressive. Heath joined Jim Christian’s staff at BC for a couple years and then coached in the G League for four. He’s well-traveled, and he seems to be an excellent hire for a program looking to get back to its winning ways.
EMU is going to look drastically different on both sides of the ball this season. Though Heath never played uptempo as a college head coach, four years coaching pros appears to have modified his thinking. Heath wants to play a more “pro” style, which means the Eagles should be an uptempo squad this coming season. (CAVEAT: every single new coaching hire in the history of coaching hires has said they will play uptempo.) At least we know for sure that EMU’s defensive philosophy is going to change. Heath will get rid of Murphy’s zone and implement a man-to-man base. The veteran coach is known for his defense – more than a few of his college teams were elite on this end, and his G League squad was as well.
Six players return from Murphy’s last team, four of whom are important. Bryce McBride, a former NJCAA HM All-American started 15 games for the Eagles last season and ranked 2nd on the team in scoring. He’ll run point and act as a floor leader for EMU, providing scoring and shooting on offense. McBride was very good last season scoring off the bounce, whether off screens or in isolation, and ranked 5th in the MAC in FT rate.
5th-year senior Darion Spottsville will compete for starts on the wing. His 0/7 career 3P mark shows he is anything but a shooter, but he shines on the defensive end where he’ll be EMU’s best on the perimeter. Up front Thomas Binelli and Derek Ballard will battle for starts and major minutes, while Axel Okongo likely remains a deeper bench option. Binelli can stretch the floor but shot just over 30% on 175+ attempts in 2019-20 (he missed the 2020-21 season with injury). Ballard is a garbageman type of player, an active rebounder and hustler. Okongo was injured a bit last year after coming over from Missouri – he offers nothing in the realm of offense, but he can block shots on the defensive end.
Like many coaches around the country this season Heath will be heavily reliant on transfer talent to win games. James “Monty” Scott is the biggest name coming to Ypsilanti, a 5th-year senior who has suited up for Portland State, Temple, and Kennesaw State during his collegiate career. Scott led the Vikings in scoring last season on his way to being named to the HM All-Big Sky squad. He was a solid contributor for Temple and as a freshman ranked 3rd in the ASUN in scoring at Kennesaw. Scott was the 2nd highest used player in the Big Sky last season, he likes to shoot and can be ball dominant on the offensive end (though he did rank 4th in the league in assist rate). He passes the eye test with flying colors, making scoring look effortless and easy – everyone can do it!
The one knock on Scott is he’s never played for a good basketball team in college. Every single one of his squads over the past four seasons have been sub-.500. Hopefully that changes at EMU.
Backcourt assistance comes by way of Noah Farrakhan (Monty Scott’s little brother), an East Carolina transfer, and Kevin-David Rice, an NCJAA 2nd Team All-American. Farrakhan was 3-star recruit prior to arriving at ECU, but he didn’t see much action in his first season. He’s quick and talented and serve as a backup PG or dual-PG alongside McBride. Rice scored 25.3 PPG last season in the JUCO ranks and should be the best shooter on the roster this year. He should have no trouble putting up points and is another candidate to win a starting spot in 2021-22.
Frontcourt transfers include Colin Golson from Siena, Nate Scott (no relation to Monty or Farrakhan) from Northern Illinois, and Yusuf Jihad from Oakland. Golson could be a very good player, like possibly top two or three on EMU this season. He is an explosive dunker, he’s very strong, and he can even step out and shoot the 3. He started four games last season for a very good Siena squad. Scott is a long hybrid forward who can play multiple positions. Like Golson he can shoot from the outside, and he projects as good defender with his length. Jihad played 17 games for the Grizzlies in 2020-21, but it’s unclear how much run he’ll get with EMU.
Freshmen Luka Savikjevikj and Javantae Randle likely need a year or two of seasoning before cracking the rotation, but big man Mo Njie could be ready right away. EMU needs a competent true post, and Njie could provide that in spurts in 2021-22. He’s a 3-star recruit with a large body who, due to a post-grad year, is older than your average freshman.
Bottom Line: I think EMU knocked it out of the park with its hiring of Heath. The school gets an alum and a coach with a ton of college and next-level experience despite being a middling MAC program for the last decade-plus. Heath might not crack the top half of the standings in year one, but he’s an upgrade over Murphy and I’d wager he has EMU fighting for a top six finish sooner rather than later.
10. Central Michigan
Key Returners: Ralph Bissainthe, Aundre Polk, Caleb Hodgson
Key Losses: Meikkel Murray, Caleb Huffman, Travon Broadway, Devontae Lane, Matt Beachler, Malik Muhammad, PJ Mitchell
Key Newcomers: Jermaine Jackson (LIU), Cameron Healy (Albany), Brian Taylor (UIC), Miroslav Stafl (Hartford), Oscar Lopez (DePaul), Harrison Henderson (Southern), Ryan Wade (Holy Cross), Kevin Miller, Tony Green
Lineup:
Outlook: Farewell Keno Davis, the former Chippewa head coach who suffered through a 3-13 11th place MAC finish last season to end his time at CMU. Davis was at the helm for nine years and last year was his worst since 2014. He led CMU to three 20+ win seasons, three above-.500 MAC seasons, and a top 100 KenPom finish in 2015. The powers that be felt a change was needed, so now the Chips look to Tony Barbee to lead them back to the top of the MAC.
Barbee has head coaching experience -- he was head coach at UTEP and Auburn in the late 2000s / early 2010s. At UTEP Barbee shined, leading his team to the NCAA Tournament in 2010 and amassing an impressive 15-1 C-USA record. Barbee’s time at Auburn was a different story. In four seasons in the SEC the Tigers were just 18-50 in conference play under Barbee, leading to his firing in 2014. Since then, Barbee has been on John Calipari’s staff at Kentucky, who he played for at UMass back in the 90s. All in all, this seems to be great hire for a CMU program looking for a spark. Barbee has experience and is no stranger to winning basketball.
CMU needs a clean slate from last season on both sides of the ball. With only three scholarship players back from 2020-21, the program will get just that. What style will Barbee bring to the table? At UTEP he cranked the tempo and looked to score in transition, but at Auburn he dialed it back a bit (traditionally tougher to win playing extremely fast in power leagues). Rim attack was Barbee’s focus at both schools and Calipari’s was similar at Kentucky – 3-point shooting came second. That works well for a CMU team that appears more built for slashing versus shooting, but the Chips do have some gifted outside shooters transferring in from the portal.
On defense, CMU needs a facelift after finishing 330th nationally in KenPom’s adj. DE rankings. Barbee’s teams were almost always better defensively than offensively, and his 2010 Miners squad ranked 16th in the nation on this end per KenPom. The Chips have the athletes and length to be solid on this end in 2021-22 and will at the very least be better (even significantly better) than last season.
CMU’s three holdovers from the prior year are all forwards. Ralph Bissainthe, Aundre Polk, and Caleb Hodgson all look to play meaningful roles in Barbee’s new system. Bissainthe is a former UIC transfer, a long forward who can put the ball on the floor, drive to the rack, and hit the occasional 3. He’s a versatile defender who will be in the mix for frontcourt starts. Polk earned a spot on the MAC’s All-Freshman team despite playing just two league games and 10 games overall last season. He has a ton of potential and nice little 12-to-15-foot face-up game. Hodgson can compete on the offensive glass; his role is less certain with the talent added from the transfer wire.
Everyone else on this roster is brand new, including the entire backcourt. Point guard duties likely fall to LIU transfer Jermaine Jackson, (maybe) 6-foot senior who began his career at Detroit and grew up 86 miles away from Mount Pleasant in Shelby Township. Jackson is a high-scoring guard, good facilitator, and (most importantly) a protector of the basketball. He was a 34% 3P shooter last season and 36% the year before that and should be one of the Chips’ most important players in 2021-22.
Albany’s Cam Healy, Holy Cross’s Ryan Wade, DePaul’s Oscar Lopez, and freshman Kevin “Boopie” Miller all have shots to start and/or play big minutes in Barbee’s backcourt this season. Healy was hurt most of last year but put up impressive numbers for the Danes in his first two collegiate seasons, even earning a spot on the All-America East 3rd Team as a freshman. Healy is an excellent outside shooter who is a career 38% from the land of plenty. Wade adds more shooting to the fold and will be primarily a spot-up threat on the perimeter. Lopez suffered a knee injury last season, limiting him to just four games. He started DePaul’s first two contests last year and is a strong player who could really shine in the MAC. Miller is small but athletic, his size is reminiscent of CMU great Marcus Keene. While Miller doesn’t have quite the ability of Keene, he does have significant range on his shot and the ability to run an offense.
On the wing look for UIC transfer Brian Taylor and freshman Tony Green to be in the mix for regular minutes. Both are versatile two-way players and incredible athletes, particularly Green who could be good for one or two “holy sh*t” dunks in his rookie season.
Competing in the frontcourt for minutes will be Hartford transfer Miroslav Stafl and Southern transfer Harrison Henderson. Stafl was a two-year starter for the Hawks and a double-figure scorer on last season’s Tourney squad. He can shoot it from deep and has good touch around the rim. In 2020-21 Stafl led the America East in OR% and ranked 8th in block rate. Henderson is a former 3-star recruit who initially played for USC out of high school. He saw limited time for the Trojans and was hurt at his next stop at Milwaukee before settling into a starting role at Southern. Henderson ranked in the top four in the MEAC in both OR% and DR% last year; he’s a long center who should be a key part of the frontcourt rotation.
Bottom Line: CMU likely won’t be competing in the top half of the MAC this season but there’s a good possibility the Chips are better than their 3-13 2020-21 mark. Barbee has plenty of coaching experience and his gaggle of transfers are good enough to be respectable in the MAC.
11. Western Michigan
Key Returners: B. Artis White, Titus Wright, Josiah Freeman, Adrian Martin, Danny Kolp
Key Losses: Greg Lee, Jason Whitens, Daylan Hamilton, Rafael Cruz, Patrick Emilien, William Boyer-Richard, Kawanise Wilkins
Key Newcomers: Mack Smith (Eastern Illinois), Markeese Hastings (Butler), Mileek McMillan (Valparaiso), Lamar Norman Jr. (Duquesne)
Lineup:
Outlook: Year one under Clayton Bates went about as expected – WMU wasn’t very good. The Broncos won just four games against DI competition and finished their MAC regular season slate at 4-12. There was some fight in the ole Broncos – an 8-12 ATS record tells us that – but it was a third straight disappointing conference season after several years of competitiveness under Steve Hawkins.
Bates has been at WMU since 2000 – he knows the program inside and out, and he’s been a part of its successes and failures over the past 20 years. Last year it seemed he was trying to figure out his roster – that combined with a slew of injuries and COVID trials every team faced resulted in him using nine different starting lineups and ranking 15th nationally in bench minutes. Several players opted to transfer out of Kalamazoo this offseason, but Bates replenished the cupboard with some incoming transfers of his own. It will be an uphill climb to .500 and a top-half MAC finish, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibilities.
WMU’s offensive product can’t get any worse than last season. The Broncos were the MAC’s worst offensive team and ranked dead last in the league in OR% and TO rate. Bates played in the halfcourt, and his offense tended to stagnate and force tough shots. Per ShotQuality, WMU ranked 329th in the country in, well, shot quality. There’s reason for optimism on this end of the floor with the return of HM All-MAC point guard B. Artis White and the arrival of former 2nd Team All-OVC guard Mack Smith.
White enjoyed a nice breakout sophomore season, shooting 42% from deep and leading the Broncos in scoring. While turnovers plagued him a bit, he still proved to be one of the premier guards in the MAC and ranked in the 93rd percentile nationally in scoring off ball screens (Synergy). He’s the undisputed leader of WMU and their greatest hope to nightly competitiveness.
Smith will add a much-needed offensive punch in the backcourt. In his four seasons with Eastern Illinois Smith scored over 1,300 points and is a 35% career 3P shooter on huge volume. A smart player and a college basketball veteran, Smith will be invaluable to the Broncos in 2021-22.
Sophomore wing Josiah Freeman and Duquesne transfer Lamar Norman Jr. will provide (even more) shooting in the backcourt. Freeman was a 3-star recruit in the class of 2020 and shot 42% from deep as a freshman last season, capping off a solid year with a 17-point performance in WMU’s final game. Norman started the first four games of the season for the Dukes before opting to enter the transfer portal in January. He’s been mostly a spot-up guy during his 2.5-year career, but Norman can also put the ball on the deck and score. With his and Smith’s arrival, senior guard Adrian Martin will likely take a backseat in the rotation. Martin started 11 games last season out of necessity, but he’s been a negative offensively every year in college. He posted a sub-80 O-rating in 2020-21, has never had one above 85, and is just a career 26% 3P shooter.
Titus Wright returns as WMU’s presumed starting center, an undersized but strong force in the middle. Wright has ranked 8th in the MAC in each of the past two seasons in OR% and provides value as a hard-worker and good athlete on the block. The frontcourt slot next to him is wide open following Greg Lee’s departure. Returner Danny Kolp and transfers Markeese Hastings (Butler) and Mileek McMillan (Valparaiso) will compete for minutes. Kolp can rebound but he’s not as good as the newcomers. Hastings is a former 3-star recruit whose 2020-21 was cut short by injury. He has a solid frame but was seldom used at Butler. McMillan was a 4-year fixture in the rotation and an on/off starter at Valpo. He can shoot the 3 and score in the post, a desirable combination in any forward. Unfortunately, McMillan has never posted good rebounding or shot-blocking rates.
Bates adds five freshmen to the roster this season and given his willingness to go deep into his bench in 2020-21, it’s likely we at least see one or two grab consistent minutes. 3/4 tweener Owen Lobsinger is a good bet to see action; he has excellent size for his position and can shoot the cover off the ball. Gus Etchison is a point guard and absolute gamer who scored over 1,400 points in HS. He’s one of those small guards who doesn’t intimidate but scores from anywhere but being behind White on the depth chart is tough for his playing time prospects. 6’5” shooting guard Cameron Kimble can shoot and will add size and length to the perimeter. Shemani Fuller, who initially committed to Fordham, has rim protecting potential and all-around basketball potential, but he’s still a but raw. Look for him to develop into a dangerous player down the road. Jack Stefanski adds depth to the wing as another big shooter.
The defensive side of the ball wasn’t pretty either for the Broncos last season. WMU ranked 9th in the MAC in adjusted efficiency (KenPom) and dead last in forcing turnovers. Two things Bates’s squad did do well, though, is 1) force opponents to beat them off the dribble versus the pass (#1 in MAC in assist rate, 14th nationally) and 2) shut down easy transition looks (13th in eFG% allowed per Hoop-Math). The roster additions don’t inspire much confidence on this end of the floor – it’s likely we see a similar product on defense as we did last season.
Bottom Line: WMU is still stuck in the bottom half of the MAC standings. While its backcourt is significantly improved this year, its frontcourt is largely unproven or simply average. Greg Lee was better than every newcomer on the roster, but one could argue there is at least more depth up front. Bates still has time to build his program his way – it’s just his second year at the helm and nobody is expecting the Broncos to compete for a league title this season.
Tier 4
12. Northern Illinois
Key Returners: Trendon Hankerson, Zool Kueth, Anthony Crump, Kaleb Thornton, Chinedu Kingsley Okanu, Adong Makuoi
Key Losses: Tyler Cochran, Darius Beane, Nate Scott
Key Newcomers: Keshawn Williams (Tulsa), Chris Osten (Arizona State), Darweshi Hunter (Weber State)
Lineup:
Outlook: NIU bottomed out last season a year removed from its best MAC finish since 2006. Mark Montgomery led his Huskies to an 11-7 league record in 2019-20, only to swiftly follow that up with a 2-12 finish in 2020-21. Montgomery did a fairly good job during his tenure keeping an historically poor program competitive, but last year’s 337th KenPom ranking – the school’s worst in the site’s 25-year history – was enough to cost him his position. He departs after ten seasons at the helm.
Rashon Burno is the new man in charge in DeKalb. The 43-year-old first-time head coach played college ball for DePaul, spent four years under Billy Donovan at Florida, and spent the last five seasons on the bench at Arizona State under Bobby Hurley. Burno played high school ball for Hurley’s dad at the legendary St. Anthony’s. He’s known as a good recruiter, but it doesn’t matter who you are – it is very tough to recruit high-level talent to Northern Illinois.
We might be looking at a stylistic shift this season with the young Burno coming in. Montgomery played a slow style, very halfcourt focused, and one that resulted in a lot of isolation and poor shot selection. Hurley plays blazing fast at ASU – his team runs, runs, runs in transition, and it’s likely Burno takes that influence with him to NIU. Throw in the fact that younger coaches tend to run a more “modern” style of play, that is “pace and space”, and we could see an NIU program that rarely prioritized outside shooting and getting out in the open floor the past decade do just that in 2021-22.
Burno has just as much work to do on the defensive end of the floor where NIU was one of the nation’s worst in 2020-21. The Huskies were the worst defensive rebounding team in the MAC last season, and they never really denied the 3 under Montgomery. Burno has talked about bringing toughness to the NIU program, something it could desperately use.
As with most MAC schools for the past umpteen years, it all starts with a good PG for the Huskies, and they have one in Trendon Hankerson. Hankerson was one of NIU’s best scorers and playmakers last season and now enters his senior year as the clear-cut leader in the clubhouse. An excellent shooter and dangerous handler off screens, Hankerson will look to build on 2020last year and put-up big numbers in 2021-22.
Tyler Cochran’s transfer has left NIU with a lot of questions in its backcourt past Hankerson. Tulsa transfer Keshawn Williams is a good candidate to start at the 2; he played 18 games as a frosh for the Hurricane and was a top 3 recruit in the state of Illinois per Prep Hoops. The potential is there for Williams – he’s very fast and athletic, but he needs to play more in control this season. Returning backup PG Kaleb Thornton will also push for more playing time. He had a sub-80 O-rating after coming to DeKalb from the JUCO ranks, but he’s more valuable on the defensive end anyway. Thornton’s focus will be buttoning down turnover issues that plagued him all last season.
Newcomers Darweshi Hunter, Zion Russell, Edward Manuel, and Noah Kon all have potential to earn regular minutes. Hunter was an excellent DII player but then was used sparingly at Weber State. He’s a scoring wing with a solid outside shot. Russell and Kon are freshmen combo guards. Russell did a prep year last season so comes to school with an extra year of experience. Kon is his Houston high school’s all-time leading scorer, an athletic guard who can shoot, score, and bounce. Manuel is a JUCO import who shot over 40% from 3 last season.
NIU’s frontcourt is largely made up of rebounders and players with defensive potential (read: there’s not a lot of offense here). The exception to that rule is Zool Kueth who posted the MAC’s 5th best O-rating in 2020-21. Kueth is a money outside shooter who can block shots on the other end, a very valuable combination indeed. Former MTSU transfer Anthony Crump can also score; he’s more of a wing despite standing 6’8’ and mostly a slasher on the offensive end.
Centers Chinedu Kingsley Okanu and Adong Makuoi are defensive / rebounding entities. Okanu started NIU’s final five games last season and ranked 4th in the MAC in OR% and 3rd in block rate. Makuoi started the team’s first 14 games and is slightly more offensively inclined than Okanu. Though the pair will fight for starts, they’re likely to be overshadowed by Arizona State transfer Chris Osten who followed Burno from Tempe. Osten started six games for the Devils and was a regular in the rotation all season long. He’s a capable scorer in the paint and a good leaper at 6’9”. Freshman Montavious Myrik is a realllllly long and athletic forward who projects as a shot blocker. He has a good-looking jumper but still has plenty of room to develop offensively. With proper instruction he could be very good down the road.
Bottom Line: NIU appears to be the worst team in the MAC this season, but that’s not unexpected given where it finished last year. Burno seems to be a solid hire and will likely be given a long leash to mold to mold the program how he sees fit. Give it at least two or three more years before we see the Huskies competing in the middle of the MAC again.