-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jalen Pickett, So., Siena
Coach of the Year: Steve Masiello, Manhattan
Newcomer of the Year: Isaiah Washington, Jr., Iona
Freshman of the Year: Fousseyni Drame, Saint Peter’s
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Rider
Key Returners: Stevie Jordan, Dimencio Vaughn, Frederick Scott, Tyere Marshall
Key Losses: Anthony Durham
Key Newcomers: Christian Ings, Allen Powell, Khalil Turner
Lineup:
Outlook: Coming to a bookstore near you: “The Rider Riddle: A Psychoanalysis of the Broncs 2018-19 Season”.
What went on behind closed doors of the Brons’ locker room last season remains an unsolved mystery. Head coach Kevin Baggett glossed over the specifics in an interview with Blue Ribbon this summer, but the following quote confirms something was off:
“We had too many internal issues. At the end of the day, being a team, being as one, we lacked all of those things.”
If you’re a private investigator, please contact me at your earliest convenience because I. NEED. ANSWERS. Heck, a psychologist might be more qualified to decode this conundrum than the FBI or the NSA.
Here’s my hail mary of a hypothesis as to what derailed the Broncs last year: there simply weren’t enough balls to go around.
If you took any one of Rider’s talented quartet - Dimencio Vaughn, Frederick Scott, Stevie Jordan and Tyere Marshall - and placed him on another team in the MAAC (excluding Iona), he’d instantly become one of the go-to-guys. So, what happens when four talented alphas all jockey for their slice of the shot pie?
Friction.
Baggett tried to mitigate this tension by platooning Scott and Vaughn at the 4 to reduce shot competition (though, part of this was injury-driven), but he struggled to find the optimal lineup recipe. Marshall’s spike in usage rate didn’t help the shot scarcity constraints either. He accounted for the highest percentage of Rider’s shots on a per possession basis, an irrational surge in confidence from his sophomore season.
Jordan is the exception here, a known constant in the MAAC and Rider’s offensive steering wheel at the point. Jordan’s been a full-time starter since freshman year, a testament to Baggett’s trust in him. With all the weapons scattered around him, Jordan has the unenviable task of apportioning shots to an assertive, score-hungry group of teammates in a democratic fashion.
Despite the chemistry-related red flags, here I am projecting Rider to re-claim the MAAC title in 2020. I’m sure these words will look foolish in about 6 months time, but if the following conditions hold, the Broncs should bunji-jump back to the top of the MAAC standings:
Vaughn’s ailing right ankle needs to be right, a condition that reduced his role to a feast-or-famine super sub last year after terrorizing MAAC opponents in 2017-18. Baggett tried to ease him back into the starting lineup during conference play, but the Broncs lost five of the seven games he started after the new year. I’m not implying he was a liability, but his conditioning and explosive burst may have been adversely affected by the hobbled ankle.
The Broncs’ apathetic defense was mind numbing last year, especially given the surplus of athletes littered up and down the roster. Baggett attempted to dial up the pressure last season - the Broncs pressed on nearly 20% of all defensive possessions - but that didn’t mask the half-court deficiencies. From my vantage point, Rider’s defense simply lacked urgency and cohesiveness. Closeouts were lethargic and communication was sporadic, which culminated in open 3s and uncontested layups. Perhaps it’s stubborn to think the Broncs will all of a sudden improve in 2020 after two straight years of defensive disappointments, but some opposing shooting regression could help my case. Rider has been torched by the 3-ball, with opponents converting 37% from long distance over the last two seasons. Granted, half-hearted closeouts and an over-sagging defensive structure are partially responsible here, but a natural 2-3% downtick toward the national average would be a nice start.
A sneaky big blow is the loss of sharpshooter Anthony Durham, the Broncs’ forgotten 5th starter last season, who was invisible sharing the floor with the aforementioned big-4. Former FIU transfer and defensive specialist Kimar Williams will likely take his place, but I’m not in love with the fit next to Jordan. Williams is a non-shooter, so Baggett may be wise to experiment molding Jordan into more of a combo guard, a move that could maximize Jordan’s shooting prowess and allow Williams to assume his more natural position at the 1. FIU grad transfer Willy Nunez will add depth on the perimeter - he’s the antithesis of Williams, an unabashed gunner who fits the bill of an ‘off-the-bench microwave’.
Bottom Line: The fact that no one transferred this offseason leads me to believe that last year’s opaque chemistry issues can be put to bed. Baggett has the horses to outrun the competition, but Tim Cluess has been a thorn in the MAAC’s side since the dawn of time. Rider and Iona are in a class of their own and should finish within a game of each other at the top of the MAAC leaderboard when it’s all said and done. Going against the Gaels just feels wrong, but my crystal ball shows Rider edging out Iona by a nose in what should be a photo finish at the end.
2. Iona
Key Returners: Tajuan Agee, EJ Crawford, Asante Gist, Ben Perez
Key Losses: Rickey McGill, Isaiah Still
Key Newcomers: Isaiah Washington, Isaiah Ross, AJ McNeil, Colton Cashaw, Dylan van Eyck
Lineup:
Outlook: Tim Cluess couldn’t throw a MAAC Tournament game if he tried. The Gaels’ 9-year tenured head honcho is on a run for the ages at New Rochelle. Cluess has claimed four consecutive MAAC Championships and amassed 20-wins in 8 of his 9 years at the helm. Last year marked the first time the Gaels fell short of that 20-win threshold, but even in a *down year* by Iona’s standards, the other 10 MAAC challengers stood idle. Thanks to the flawless play of Rickey McGill, the Gaels punched their ticket to the dance for the 6th time in 10 seasons, reaffirming that Cluess still sits on the MAAC’s iron throne.
McGill was Iona’s Energizer Bunny for three years running, an ironman and driving force of the Gaels’ prolific offense. He batted 1.000 in the MAAC Championship, leaving the Gaels’ NCAA tournament streak at four and counting. Isaiah Washington, McGill’s presumed successor, spent his summer on pins and needles waiting for the NCAA to rule on his eligibility status, but he was officially cleared earlier this month. Now back home in a New York state of mind, the Jelly Fam phenom is primed for stardom. A former top-100 recruit and 4-star prospect, Washington is an outlier by MAAC talent standards. He’s a magician with the ball, able to wiggle through any crease in the defense with his yo-yo handles. I’m salivating at the thought of watching Washington play without rules or restrictions, as Cluess is notorious for granting his guards limitless offensive freedom.
Asante Gist was waiting on deck to pick up the point guard duties if the NCAA ruled unfavorably on Washington’s eligibility status. With Washington now approved, Gist will resume his role as a co-initiator and complementary playmaker at the 2. The former Eastern Kentucky transfer carried a ball-hoggish reputation when he first came to Iona, but he integrated seamlessly with the Gaels’ balanced scoring attack last year. Some growing pains were evident in his game-to-game volatility, but his efficiency improved demonstrably across the board from his prior two seasons in the Ohio Valley.
With McGill as the only major departure, there aren’t many holes to fill for the newcomers - but, that didn’t stop Cluess from stockpiling more ammunition through the transfer and JUCO avenues. UMKC import Isaiah Ross and NJCAA All-American AJ McNeil are the headliners, two trigger-happy scorers who will add stability to a perimeter depth chart that was starved for backup last season. Combined with incumbents EJ Crawford and Ben Perez, the Gaels’ backcourt will pack plenty of scoring punch this season. Had Siena’s Jalen Pickett gone pro, Crawford would’ve been my preseason Player of the Year pick. He’s a pure three-level scorer at 6’6 and virtually unguardable as a small ball 4 on offense. Crawford flourishes in Cluess’ free-flowing, dribble weave offense, which requires four dual-threat scorers to be effective.
Cluess’ affection for versatility applies to all 5 positions, as Iona has become an oasis for skilled and athletic big men. 6’9 Tajuan Agee exemplifies this prototype, a smooth operator both inside and out. His refined handle allows Cluess to slide him down to the 4, which, in turn, will open up more minutes for Andrija Ristanovic and Mo Thiam. Thiam’s late waiver approval is a big boost to the Gaels’ frontline, a former JUCO All-American and an unidentifiable member of New Mexico State’s 15-man artillery last season.
Cluess’ most dangerous offensive lineup could involve Netherlands native Dylan van Eyck, a 6’9 forward who possesses the handle and fluidity of a guard. After watching the video below, I now see why some think he could barge his way into the starting lineup…
The coaching staff is gushing about van Eyck’s vision and passing ability, so look for Cluess to play through him as a point-forward in the half-court.
Bottom Line: The Gaels will sorely miss McGill’s calming presence in the backcourt, but a refurbished bench is the perfect antidote for Iona’s balanced scoring attack. I spy 8 guys capable of dropping 20 points on any given night, so Cluess will have the luxury of shuffling fresh bodies in and out of the lineup with no drop off. The talent here is still on a different tier than the other famished MAAC competitors not named Rider. Timmy Cluess will have the Gaels at the top of the leaderboard once again, primed to make another MAAC Championship run as he eyes a 5th straight trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Tier 2
3. Siena
Key Returners: Jalen Pickett, Manny Camper
Key Losses: Evan Fisher, Sloan Seymour, Kevin Degnan
Key Newcomers: Elijah Burns, Donald Carey, Matt Hein, Gary Harris, Luke Sutherland
Lineup:
Outlook: Like an MLB first round draft pick expedited to triple-A, Jamion Christian is taking his coaching career through the express lane. In just two years, Christian slingshotted from the NEC (a perennial conference doormat that’s been sharpied on the 16-seed line for 8 straight years) to the Atlantic 10 (a fringe top-10 conference in America).
After using Siena as a one-year stepping stone last season, Christian’s ambition left the Saints’ head coaching seat vacant. With the recruiting progress started under the Christian regime starting to pay dividends, the athletic department figured why mess with that momentum. In a wise move, Athletic Director John D’Argenio promoted top assistant Carmen Maciariello to the head coaching throne.
As a local high school legend from upstate New York and former Director of Basketball Operations at Siena during the glory days of Fran McCaffery, this is a special opportunity for Maciariello. He has every intent on putting his fingerprints on the program, which will be abundantly evident in how the Saints play this season. As detailed in the Times Union this summer, Maciariello is opening up the kimono in revealing his desired brand of basketball. In short, ‘fast’ and ‘position-less’ are the two prevailing descriptors, traits that were in no way applicable to last year’s team.
For Jalen Pickett, a unicorn of a talent for the MAAC, Maciariello’s new offensive template will be liberating. Pickett isn’t a Russell Westbrook caliber athlete, but he’s got a speed advantage over most opposing guards in this conference. In Maciariello’s faster paced offense, Pickett will get to showcase a whole new bag of tricks out in the open floor, where his length, bounce and hawk-like vision should shine. Bouncy wing Manny Camper is also salivating at the thought of galloping out on the break, a perfect placemat for his long strides and trampoline hops.
Maciariello’s vision to play position-less, up-tempo basketball will mesh well with the rest of this revamped roster, which is light years more athletic than last season. With all due respect to paint patroller Evan Fisher and 3-point specialists Sloan Seymour and Kevin Degnan, their specialized skill sets and limited athleticism constrained the Saints’ lineup fluidity and flexibility. With Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns and high-flying freshman Gary Harris slated for big minutes, the 2020 frontline looks much springier than last year’s rigid crop of forwards.
Burns’ experience and Power-6 conference pedigree carry lofty expectations, but early reports indicate he looks right at home. The following excerpt from the Times Union this summer details how Burns is assimilating in Maciariello’s system:
While Burns will sometimes be the lone big man in the four-guard lineups that new head coach Carmen Maciariello likes to employ, Carey gives Siena another ball-handler and scorer to complement Pickett.
"Just another big guard that can make plays for other players,'' Maciariello said. "But he can also shoot and create. Another guy that can kind of attack, which is good. He's pretty good size, so he can rebound, he can start the break, too. That way Jalen doesn't have to bring it up all the time."
With Siena about 1 1/2 weeks into official practice, Burns said he's enjoying Maciariello's offensive style.
"We just kind of play,'' Burns said. "Like Carm talks about all the time, position-less basketball. If I rebound the ball, I can take it up the floor, outlet it, we just play basketball. There's not really set pieces. Everybody's a basketball player. I love it. It's perfect for my skill set, to just be able to go out and make plays."
The real wildcard is Sammy Friday, a bulldozer up front and the Saints’ only traditional big man on the roster. Friday underwent knee surgery last December, but has reportedly been cleared for action.
Bottom Line: As much as I love the new look Saints, this roster overhaul does come at a cost. With Sloan Seymour and Kevin Degnan graduating, Pickett and Mount St. Mary’s import Donald Carey are the only proven long range shooting threats on a significant volume of attempts, which could place a premium on Jimmy Ratliff’s 3-point precision. Shooting is a precious natural resource, one that Maciariello must tap into quickly as he searches for the right lineup combinations early in the year. If the Saints can find enough shooting to command defensive respect and prevent opposing defenses from packing it in, the offense could really take off behind Pickett’s playmaking.
4. Quinnipiac
Key Returners: Rich Kelly, Tyrese Williams, Jacob Ritoni, Kevin Marfo
Key Losses: Cameron Young
Key Newcomers: Aaron Falzon, Seth Pickney
Lineup:
Outlook: Now entering year 3 of the Baker Dunleavy era, the ‘Villanova-fication’ of Bobcat basketball is all systems go. Don’t confuse this brand of basketball with the NBA’s ‘pace and space’ revolution. The Jay Wright modification, which is embedded in Dunleavy’s DNA, might be more appropriately described as ‘space, but hold the pace’.
Reminiscent of the great Nova teams over the past five years, Dunleavy is attempting to build a ‘Nova Lite’ version in Camden. Having a surplus of shooters is table stakes for this system, but for it to operate at the highest-level, a game breaking playmaker is the secret sauce. Cameron Young was this ingredient last season, an electric scoring machine who poured in 24 points a game, earning him much deserved All-American consideration.
Without Young, it’s next man up for the Bobcats. There’s no second coming of Young on the roster, but Rich Kelly and Tyrese Williams can replenish bits and pieces of Young’s diverse scoring arsenal. Kelly is the table setter, a pure pass first point guard who was Young’s personal butler last season, routinely feeding him open shots on a platter. Kelly’s mindset must evolve without Young as the offensive fulcrum, but he’s got the tools to be an alpha.
If Williams follows Kelly’s growth trajectory, there’s a chance he emerges as the Bobcats’ go-to-guy. Kelly missed the first five games of the season, which gave the young Williams a rare opportunity to run the offense. This experience allowed Williams to flex his ball handling and decision making muscles, which will come in handy as Kelly’s crutch in the backcourt this year. If Williams can keep knocking down 3s at a high 30% clip, it will open up acres of driving real estate for both him and Kelly to attack.
Whenever Kelly and Williams break down the first line of defense, help-side defenders will be caught in a pickle. While stopping the ball is first priority, they’ll have to think twice about leaving Jacob Ritoni and Northwestern import Aaron Falzon, two deadeye drillers, open on the wing. Ritoni’s canned 42% of his triples over the last two seasons, while Falzon is equally as flammable from the outside - I personally witnessed him drown Indiana with a flurry of 3s last season, a far stingier defense than anything he’ll see in the MAAC this year.
Kevin Marfo, a former George Washington down transfer, has yet to stay healthy for a full season since his career commenced back in 2016. He was shot out of a cannon to start the 2018-19 campaign, but a torn meniscus forced him to miss the first six conference games. Marfo regained form when he returned, showing flashes of that 3-star pedigree, but Dunleavy tightly managed his minutes (he came off the bench the final 14 games of the season).
Under normal circumstances, the lack of depth up front behind Marfo would be cause for concern, but Dunleavy’s 4-guard system (modeled after his former mentor Jay Wright at Villanova) inherently de-emphasizes the need for a robust frontline. That said, the frontcourt options behind Marfo are mostly freshmen, so a healthy Marfo would prevent Dunleavy from having to throw unproven youngsters into the fire prematurely.
A convenient summer trip to our friendly neighbors to the north gave Dunleavy a closer look at what’s percolating in the pipeline. Redshirt freshmen Matt Balanc and Savion Lewis averaged 15 points a game during Canadian exhibition tour, while 7-foot freshman Seth Pickney emerged as an intimidating rim protector. Dunleavy believes Pickney is ready to be a key cog in the rotation from day 1.
Bottom Line: I’ll concede that this may be a bullish projection for the Bobcats, especially on the heels of Cameron Young’s departure. I’m placing a lot of stock in Kelly (one of the most measured, sure-handed guards in the conference), and banking on big leaps from Marfo and Williams, both of whom are criminally undervalued relative to other proven MAAC commodities.
5. Manhattan
Key Returners: Nehemiah (‘Bud’) Mack, Samir Stewart, Tyler Reynolds, Pauly Paulicap, Warren Williams, Christian Hinckson, Ebube Ebube, Tykei Greene
Key Losses: Thomas Capuano
Key Newcomers: Michael Okafor, Romar Reid
Lineup:
Outlook: Steve Masiello saw the writing on the wall last summer. Down four senior starters from a team that limped across the finish line with a 9-9 conference record, he decided it was time for a reboot. Understanding the need to take one step back before taking two steps forward, Masiello called upon a burgeoning youth movement to kickstart a new chapter in Manhattan basketball last year.
The bumps and bruises over the first few months of the season were expected, but Masiello’s fresh fawns started to grow up by the end of January. After a 4-16 start, the young guns completely flipped the script, winning 7 of their final 12 contests, leapfrogging Marist, Fairfield, Niagara and Saint Peter’s for a respectable 6th place finish in the final MAAC standings.
A variety of variables were at play during the late season surge, but there was one true common denominator: Samir Stewart. The rising sophomore was lost in a deep rotational shuffle to start the season, but Masiello saw something special in his young freshman point guard. Stewart caught fire during conference play, cashing in on 48% of his 3s, all while steadily improving his ball security and decision making.
Bud Mack, Stewart’s big brother in the backcourt, will co-pilot the offense alongside Stewart this year. Per the chart below, when Mack and Stewart shared the floor together last season, Manhattan’s offense rose to a new level:
This guard tandem was instrumental in pacing the Jaspers’ offense during that late season turnaround, but just imagine if human fly swatter Pauly Paulicap was in the mix. After running away with the 2018 MAAC Defensive Player of the Year award, injuries sidelined Paulicap for all but 10 games last year. If Paulicap can stay healthy, the Jaspers’ frontline will be a force to be reckoned with.
With Paulicap ailing, the 6’9 240 pound Warren Williams ruled the paint with an iron first in his first full collegiate season. Hailing from the esteemed St. Benedict’s Prep just across the river, Williams needed no time adjusting to the speed and physicality of the D1 level. He’s a 1990s big man relic brought back to life, doing the crux of his damage around the restricted area with a myriad of seals and low-post moves.
Here’s the thing. Paulicap’s absence is what paved the way for Williams to shine last year. Even in the 10 games when Paulicap played, Masiello rarely paired him with Williams, so we have no clue what a potential twin-tower lineup will look like this season. Given how much Masiello loves to tinker with his rotation combinations, he’ll likely juggle the Williams / Paulicap two-big lineup option with a more perimeter-oriented lineup option, one that features a true ‘wing’ at the 4. Tyler Reynolds, Ebube Ebube and Christian Hinckson make this possible, all of whom stand 6’7 tall. Reynolds is smooth lefty sniper with a lightning quick release, while Ebube and Hinckson are carbon copies of the wing archetypes Masiello looks to install in his full-court press.
The abundance of riches doesn’t end there. Masiello welcomes back a pair of off-guards in Tykei Greene and Elijah Buchanan to round out the perimeter rotation, two sophomores who are only scratching the surface of their potential.
Bottom Line: If Steve Masiello can avoid the injury bug, the Jaspers are primed to make the biggest leap in the MAAC this year. The frontline talent is divine and the assortment of multi-positional pieces on the wing could manifest in a devastating, ‘event-driven’ defense. If Stewart and Mack sustain their consistency as the offensive catalysts, Manhattan may be knocking on the door of a top-3 finish in 2020.
6. Monmouth
Key Returners: Ray Salnave, Deion Hammond, Louie Pillari, Mustapha Traore
Key Losses: Diago Quinn
Key Newcomers: Jarvis Vaughn
Lineup:
Outlook: Just wait for it… It’ll come…
Last November, Monmouth piled up losses faster than the dirty clothes in my laundry hamper. Yet, there I was in the middle of December still clinging to the notion that this was a competent basketball team. The donut hole in the November win column was largely a byproduct of a brutal non-conference slate, so I refused to panic at first. In fact, I remained stubbornly loyal for the first 10 games of the season, but the 20-point shellacking at the hands of Albany is when I officially jumped off the bandwagon.
Shame on me for doubting the King of West Long Branch...
After a much needed two-week break, the Hawks gave Yale a near-death experience, nearly upending a loaded Bulldogs squad before letting a lead slip away late in the 2nd half. In hindsight, that effort should’ve been the crystal ball for what was coming 11 days later at the Palestra, when Monmouth took down Penn for its first win of the season.
Once the Hawks shook the monkey off their back, everything started to click behind the work of Ray Salnave and Deion Hammond. Salnave and Hammond co-lead the offense in perfect equilibrium, which prevents opposing defenses from diverting all effort and attention to either one. Salnave is the primary creator, a bulldog who thrives at drawing whistles when he gets into the teeth of the defense. Hammond skews toward the shooting guard end of the spectrum, but he’s no slouch as a creator himself. He’s a streaky shooter with deep range and an explosive finisher at the rim.
Salnave’s maturation last season was a major factor in the Hawks’ turnaround. He was slow to comprehend his new role assignment, which required more playmaking and facilitation than expected of him in prior years. To help ease the transition, Rice downshifted gears from 150CC to 100CC, which helped slow the game down for Salnave as he regained his footing. Rice used a similar tactic two years ago, when he hit the offensive brakes to help guide Austin Tilghman in his transition to point guard, who played primarily off the ball in prior seasons.
Another reason for controlling the tempo was to accommodate Diago Quinn, Monmouth’s interior mammoth. At 6’10 260 pounds, Quinn was a takeover threat with his low-post dominance, as he routinely commanded double teams on the low-block. Quinn was equally as impactful on the other side of the floor, as the anchor of Monmouth’s stingy defense and a vacuum cleaner on the glass. With Quinn out of the picture, Mustapha Traore and Sam Ibiezugbe will now quarterback the defense for the Hawks’ frontline. Traore is an elastic athlete, tailor-made for the 4 spot, while Ibiezugbe’s beastly frame bears a striking resemblance to Quinn. Ibiezugbe’s contributions the last two seasons have been sporadic at best, so Rice could go small with Traore at the 5 and 6’6 wing Melik Martin at the 4.
For the Hawks to make a push for a top-3 spot in the standings, Lady Luck will need to be in their corner. Monmouth’s overprotective defense comes at the expense of allowing too many open 3s, where they’ve been gouged by opponents the last two seasons. Last year, opponents attempted 51% of their field goals from behind the stripe, the highest rate of any team in America. Against superior shooters in the non-conference segment of the season, Monmouth’s opponents converted 37% from 3-point range, a clip which fell to 34% during league play. This 3% dip may not seem substantial, but this matters when you’re surrendering 25 3-pointers a game. Barring an unforeseen epiphany that prompts King Rice to rejigger his defensive style, the Hawks’ defense will once again be at the mercy of opposing shooters.
Bottom Line: This backcourt triumvirate isn’t as explosive as the 2017 rendition (salute to Justin Robinson, Micah Seaborn and Je’lon Hornbeak), but the Salnave / Hammond co-op will be a handful for opposing MAAC defenders. With a full year of spearheading the offense under his belt, Salnave could be in store for a monster season. He’s supported by two prolific shooters in Hammond and Louie Pillari on either side, both of whom were hampered by nagging injuries last season. If that triage takes a collective step forward, the Hawks will creep into the top-5 of the MAAC standings.
7. Canisius
Key Returners: Malik Johnson, Scott Hitchon, Jalanni White
Key Losses: Isaiah Reese, Takal Molson, Jibreel Faulkner, Jonathan Sanks
Key Newcomers: Majesty Brandon, Corey Brown
Lineup:
Outlook: Just 10 miles up the road at Buffalo University, Reggie Witherspoon’s legacy flickers dimly, recently smothered by the Nate Oats and Bobby Hurley-induced buzz. While Oats and Hurley built the Buffalo program into a towering skyscraper, it was Witherspoon who laid the foundation during a grossly under-appreciated 14-year tenure. It’s quite a shame Witherspoon never got a whiff of NCAA Tournament glory, a feat Hurley and Oats achieved four times after his departure. Now, Witherspoon is trying to sneak in the dance through a different route, the MAAC, an entrance with far fewer obstacles than the superior MAC.
Now, four years into his contract, Witherspoon is still searching for that Holy Grail of postseason invitations. Last season set up to be ‘the year’, as Witherspoon was equipped with a talent-infused roster that featured a fringe pro prospect in Isaiah Reese. Reese was simply unconscious during his breakout sophomore campaign, stuffing the stat sheet to the tune of 17 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals per game.
Reese’s quick rise to stardom was the perfect setup to last season’s ‘gotcha’, an unpredictable turn of events that left me - and all the other Canisius’ fans - feeling duped. The writing was on the wall by the end of November. The Griffins were outclassed against a gauntlet of a schedule, and Reese’s erratic shooting and decision making quickly silenced early NBA draft buzz. Just two months later, Reese was suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team, a fitting conclusion to a wildly disappointing junior season.
Evaluating what the loss of Reese means for the 2020 prognosis is a multi-layered problem.
From an overall record perspective, the Griffins went 7-5 without Reese.
From a handicapping lens, Canisius played to roughly the same power rating before and after Reese’s suspension.
Finally, from an individual on / off perspective, Reese’s impact was more or less a wash, as shown in the chart below from hooplens.com:
While Kenpom.com’s overall rankings show a minor dip once Reese was removed from the team, Canisius mostly weathered the storm in a post Reese climate.
Once the cancerous Reese was removed from the equation, the Griffins’ longtime floor general Malik Johnson answered the bell. Johnson is like that 2004 Oldsmobile sedan that your grandfather still drives - it’s no less reliable and dependable today than the day he bought it. Johnson hasn’t missed a single start in his illustrious 3-year career as captain of the Canisius offense. A trusted gatekeeper of the rock, Johnson must become more assertive as a scorer to replenish the production left behind by Reese and Takal Molson.
Without two of the best individual talents in the conference, the Griffins’ offense will shift to a more balanced, by-committee approach. The strength of this roster now tilts toward the frontcourt, where Scott Hitchon, Jalanni White and Dantai St. Louis reside. Hitchon is a skilled post scorer, able to finish over either shoulder on the low-block, while St. Louis is the intimidator at 6’9 240 pounds. The 6’7 White is a supreme athlete, who led the Griffin in blocks last season, despite playing under 20 minutes a game. He started the season as a defensive specialist, but bloomed into a double-digit scoring threat late in the year.
Bottom Line: Canisius’ 2020 destiny hinges on an unknown cast of characters on the perimeter. Incumbents Jordan Henderson and Sam Rautins are adept shooters and effective floor spacers, but they lack the dynamic creation ability of their predecessors Reese and Molson.
This is where Witherspoon is looking for Majesty Brandon to chip in, an NJCAA All-American who torched the nets on the JUCO circuit:
Brandon’s got a world of potential and his impact could be the difference maker for a team with a wide range of outcomes.
8. Saint Peter’s
Key Returners: Cameron Jones, Quinn Taylor, KC Ndefo*, Derrick Woods
Key Losses: Davauhnte Turner, Samuel Idowu
Key Newcomers: Nazeer Bostick, Fousseyni Drame, Hassaan Drame
Lineup:
*Update: As of 9/20, KC Ndefo has been suspended indefinitely from all team activities. Until he’s reinstated, look for highly touted freshman Fousseyni Drame to slide into the starting lineup.
Outlook: It must be tough for Shaheen Holloway to watch Seton Hall, his former employer of nearly a decade, undergo a program renaissance without his assistance. While many of the players driving that resurgence would be the first to attribute their growth and success to Holloway’s influence, he won’t be along for the ride this season. Rather, the Queens native has his own problems to deal with. Holloway is in the critical stages of his own rebuilding project at nearby St. Peter’s, about to embark on year 2 of what should be a long and tedious climb back to the MAAC mountaintop. His predecessor John Dunne, a MAAC legend in the eyes of many, needed 5 years to turn the bottom-feeding Peacocks into an NCAA Tournament participant, but that memorable 2010-11 campaign stands alone as the only time St. Peter’s went dancing in this millenium. Holloway knows the odds are stacked against him, but it’s a challenge he’s embracing with open arms.
Year 1 was predictably ‘painful’ for Holloway and the Peacocks - ‘painful’ in both the literal sense and the aesthetic sense. Already hamstrung by a flurry of outbound transfers last summer, a catastrophic season ending injury to starting guard Cam Jones left Holloway with a paper thin bench. As a result, the top-6 contributors had to gut it out for 25-plus minutes on a nightly basis, forcing Holloway to go much deeper into his bench than he had hoped.
In terms of the ‘aesthetic’ pain, I’m referring to my own personal retinas. Watching this offense last year was downright brutal. Davauhnte Turner became a one-man-band, a necessary transformation with no alternative shooting or scoring threats around him. The Peacocks’ boasted the MAAC’s lowest 3PT% and highest turnover rate, which naturally culminated in the league’s worst overall offense.
Worry not Peacock nation - that chapter is over and done with. The 2020 outlook is far more rosy, and while a MAAC regular season title is still a ways away, the future of the program has arrived. Holloway brings in a stellar freshman class, headlined by Mali natives Fousseyni Drame and Hassaan Drame. The Drame boys are as indistinguishable on the court as they look off it. At 6’7 with brawny shoulders and long arms, these twins were put on this Earth to defend. Their offensive skill sets still need refinement, but there’s no doubt Holloway stumbled upon two of the best defenders in the MAAC with this duo:
The Drames will be an extension of the Peacocks’ defensive identity last season, able to guard all 5 positions, control the glass and protect the rim, as needed. With those two flying around all over the court, along with Penn State transfer Nazeer Bostick and his sticky hands bothering opposing ball handlers, Holloway is quietly building an impassable defensive fortress.
For any driver who bypasses the Peacocks’ first line of defense this year, one of the nation’s best shot-blocking units will be waiting for them at the rim. Even with Samuel Idowu graduating, whose astronomical 10% block rate led all MAAC qualifiers last year, KC Ndefo and Derrick Woods shape up to be a dominant frontline combo in 2020. During Ndefo’s suspension, look out for the monstrous Majur Majak, a human giant at 7’1 who Holloway hopes can replicate Ndefo and Idowu’s rim protection. Both of the Drame brothers, particularly Fousseyni, are qualified to slide up to the 4 as well.
Offensively, there’s still plenty of holes on the perimeter, but we’ll start to get a glimpse at Holloway’s long-term stylistic vision this season, which he teased in this summer’s Blue Ribbon interview:
“I’m going to play very up-tempo. Everything we do is going to be running and jumping and pressing and up and down and shooting 3s.”
As fun and exciting as that sounds, I question whether he has the offensive skill level to execute. Cam Jones’ impending return will help, but none of the projected rotational cogs can be labeled as true point guards. Holloway experimented with Dallas Watson at the point last year, but he was sloppy joe with the rock all season long. Aaron Estrada, Daryl Banks and Doug Edert were brought in to address this need, but I’d bet most of this burden ends up falling on Jones and Bostick’s shoulders.
Bottom Line: As Holloway’s tentacles slowly spread throughout the roster, we’ll start to see the future vision take shape in 2020. With one of the MAAC’s best recruiting classes coming through the door, it’s clear Holloway has the chops to compete with Cluess and the other long standing head honchos in the talent arms race. However, improvement will be slow and incremental, and while the defense should be stingy, the offense still appears to be under construction.
9. Fairfield
Key Returners: Landon Taliaferro, Jesus Cruz, Taj Benning, Aidas Kavaliauskas, Wassef Methnani
Key Losses: Neftali Alvarez, Jonathan Kasibabu
Key Newcomers: Vincent Eze, Chris Maidoh, Allan Jeanne-Rose
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s tough to see Sydney Johnson go, a personal favorite of mine dating back to his time at Princeton. Unfortunately, Johnson was stuck in the mud the past three seasons, failing to live up to his own standards set in 2012 and 2013. Now, Jay Young, another member of the Steve Pikiell tree, will try his luck at this whole head coaching thing.
A longtime north-easterner, Young knows the region like the back of his hand. He spent 12 years at Stony Brook before following Pikiell to Rutgers, where he spent the last three seasons. To get up to speed on the MAAC, Young smartly swooped up former Niagara head coach Chris Casey off the unemployment line, a savvy move that should pay major dividends in the scouting department.
Young’s only had a few months to take stock of his newly inherited roster, but it didn’t take long to identify one glaring issue:
“Scoring is going to be a big concern,'' Young said in an interview with Blue Ribbon this summer.
Hmmm, not exactly a ringing endorsement for his new troops, but the candidness is quite refreshing. Also, he’s spot on...
Losing manchild Jonathan Kasibabu means the Stags no longer have a bailout card on the offensive glass when they go cold from the outside. Kasibabu was a maniac on the boards and a reliable low-post scoring threat, which collectively took a big burden off a young and inexperienced backcourt last season.
Promising point guard Netfali Alvarez also left town this summer, which strips Young of his most proven perimeter playmaker.
In summary, the same team that finished in a 3-way tie for last place now loses its two most important players at critical positions. Young has no choice but to give Maine transfer Vincent Eze, along with incumbent guards Landon Taliaferro and Jesus Cruz, the greenest of lights offensively. Cruz and Eze are shaky shooters, both of whom rely on their size and athleticism to put points on the board, so MAAC foes would be wise to shield all defensive effort in Taliaferro’s direction. He’s a 3-point assassin and represents the Stags’ lone long range shooting threat. If Young can’t find ways to free up Taliaferro for open looks on the perimeter, the Stags’ offensive floor spacing could shrivel up in a hurry.
That said, a healthy Aidas Kavaliauskas could distract defensive attention away from Taliaferro, a forgotten key cog in the 2017-18 rotation. Injuries cancelled the Lithuanian’s encore last year, as his game-to-game minute count violently fluctuated all year long. Currently, Kavaliauskas is still recovering from a torn labrum, but if he returns to 2018 form, he’ll help stabilize a rail thin backcourt. Calvin Whipple could be a viable remedy if Kavaliauskas misses extended time, a sharpshooting sophomore with a striking resemblance to Taliaferro’s offensive arsenal.
With offensive question marks swirling, the Stags’ defense will have to be the saving grace in 2020. Young carries a reputation as a defensive coordinator, and was reportedly the brains behind many of the stifling defenses seen at Stony Brook and Rutgers under Pikiell. Kasibabu would’ve been the type of interior enforcer Young swoons for but Eze, Tunisia native Wassef Methani and enticing freshman Chris Maidoh can secure the restricted area up front. Cruz and Taj Benning are physical specimens on the wing, both of whom are malleable into lockdown defenders.
Bottom Line: Despite a new coach and big positional vacancies to fill (point guard and center), most of the analytic projections (specifically, kenpom.com and Barttorvik.com) are relatively optimistic on the Stags’ 2020 prognosis. The offense will look dreadful at times with so few dynamic scoring options, but Young’s gritty defensive reputation should help the Stags muck it up. With the middle to bottom portion of the MAAC looking like a muddled mess, Fairfield should avoid slipping down into the gutter. An 8-12 league record feels like the right target for Jay Young’s inaugural season, but injury-prone pieces in Benning, Kavaliauskas and the once promising Omar El-Sheikh must all stay healthy.
10. Marist
Key Returners: Darius Hines
Key Losses: Brian Parker, Ryan Funk, David Knudsen, Isaiah Lamb
Key Newcomers: Mike Cubbage, Matt Turner, Jordan Jones, Zion Tordoff, Braden Bell, Henry Makeny
Lineup:
Outlook: After a 14-year reign at St. Peter’s, John Dunne, aka Mr. MAAC, is now trying his luck in Poughkeepsie. Dunne is as dead set in his philosophies as any coach in America - physicality, toughness and grit - which typically manifests in the form of a steel curtain defense. However, this overemphasis on the defensive side of the ball can sometimes lead to a rickety offense, as was the case last season with the roster left behind by Mike Maker, Dunne’s predecessor.
Despite a discombobulated roster that lacked an identity, Dunne didn’t make excuses. He simply went about his business, and convinced a bunch of unfamiliar faces to buy in to his defensive principles.
The result? A respectable 7-11 league record, two wins more than Maker ever reached during his short-lived tenure.
For my preview preparation, I rewatched the full repay of Marist vs. Dartmouth last season to refresh my memory on some of the role players. Roughly 10 minutes into the game, I found myself thinking, “Why can’t Dartmouth do anything on offense?”. Even when the Big Green scored, the points were hard earned and the shot was highly contested. Naturally, those shots eventually stopped falling and Marist ran away for an 18-point victory over a squad I’m quite bullish on this year.
As we turn the page to 2020, the Red Foxes’ defense is still nowhere near Dunne’s sky-high standards, but his ability to adapt to an uncomfortable roster last season was an impressive feat. This year, he’ll start to infuse ‘his guys’ to the mix, which features a collection of prototypical ‘Dunne dudes’ capable of locking down defensively. Dunne’s defenses are always built from the inside out, so all eyes will be on a potential twin-tower big man pairing of Jordan Jones and Zion Tordoff. Based on Jones’ last 10 games at Charleston Southern, Dunne may have struck gold with this acquisition. His per minute rebounding and shot-blocking stats were off the charts good, so Dunne may tag him as the primary paint protector this season. 6’9 Tobias Sjoberg will also play a pivotal role as the likely 3rd man in Dunne’s frontline rotation.
That theme of defense extends to the wing, where Dunne will insert a defensive stopper in Henry Makeny. Much like the Drame twins at St. Peter’s, the 6’7 Makeny’s combination of length and lateral mobility could launch him into elite defensive status by year end. The young freshman will need time to learn, but there’s no better defensive tutor than Dunne.
Not to sound like a broken record, but there’s a reason St. Peter’s, Fairfield and Marist are nestled safely at the bottom of my projected standings (yet, still above the Niagara soap opera). Yup, offensive futility will also drag the Red Foxes’ feet this year, as polished scorers and proven playmakers are few and far between. Darius Hines is a steady game manager, Matt Turner is a catch-and-shoot specialist, leaving Mike Cubbage as the Red Foxes’ only potential answer. While his output at Paris Junior College wasn’t jaw-dropping, Dunne has raved about Cubagge’s diverse scoring package.
Even if Cubbage pans out, he alone can’t replace Brian Parker AND Ryan Funk’s collective offensive brilliance. Parker was a weapon, a stocky guard who basically played the point from the elbow and low block. With few guards able to push him out of the lane, Parker was able to draw constant double teams and find Funk cocked and loaded behind the 3-point arc. While none of the other newcomers are oozing with offensive upside, Braden Bell might be plugged into the rotation early on. His scouting report reads as a well-balanced wing with a perfect blend of sufficient offensive skill and tight alignment with Dunne’s preferred physical model.
Bottom Line: After flying by the seat of his pants with a roster full of unknowns last year, Dunne should start to turn the corner in rebranding the Red Foxes into the grind-it-out, defensive-minded identity he institutionalized at St. Peter’s. However, the wave of newcomers Dunne plucked off the transfer wire will bring next to nothing on the offensive side of the ball. Dunne made a living by winning ugly at St. Peter’s, but his best teams still had a few reliable bucket getters. Barring some unforeseen metamorphosis of Hines or Cubbage, I’m not quite sure where the Foxes will find points this season.
11. Niagara
Key Returners: James Towns, Raheem Solomon, Marcus Hammond
Key Losses: Marvin Prochet, Dominic Robb
Key Newcomers: Shandon Brown, Justin Roberts, Nicolas Kratholm, Noah Waterman, Nick McDonald, Italo Cicotti
Lineup:
Outlook: *Deletes all Patrick Beilein related content*
Ok, let’s try this again…
A wild turn of events (the nature of which lie outside the scope of this preview) have vaulted Greg Paulus into the head coaching throne at Niagara, not so far from where he starred as QB1 at Syracuse. Don’t let his age (33) or baby face deceive you - the former McDonald’s All-American (and public enemy #1 for all Duke haters), has compiled quite the coaching resume just a decade removed from college.
After a quick cup of coffee at Navy for the 2010-11 campaign, Paulus latched on to Thad Matta’s staff in Columbus, where he resided through the end of the 2017 season. As cited by the Niagara school website, Paulus wore multiple hate during his 4-years as an assistant to Matta, assuming both offensive and defensive coordinator roles during that span. He’s also regarded as a top-notch recruiter and his overall body of work earned him recognition by Jeff Goodman as one of college basketball’s top-10 assistants in 2015.
Glossing over his brief stops at Louisville and George Washington most recently, one thing is abundantly clear. Paulus won’t be over his head. Sure, a first year head coach is always a toss up, but the experience and reputation are certainly in his favor. What we don’t know is how closely he’ll emulate the system Beilein planned to install, which utilizes a more traditional lineup structure - two bigs, two forwards and a center - and runs on perpetual off-ball movement.
Etched in stone to one of those guard spots is James Towns, a smooth bearded lefty that has me convinced he’s James Harden long lost brother. Rising sophomores Raheem Solomon and Marcus Hammond are the obvious choices to fill the second guard spot, but I’m betting Paulus rides with his guy Shandon Brown. A 5’9 dynamo who came with Paulus from George Washington, Brown is electric with the ball in hands. Toledo transfer Justin Roberts is another option in the backcourt, a former 3-star recruit who completes a formidable perimeter quartet for Paulus to lean on.
With Beilein’s resignation, and the sheer lack of size up front, I’m inclined Paulus will play 3 and perhaps even 4 guards to weaponize the strength of the roster. I’m completely guessing on who will start at the 4 and the 5, but Noah Waterman appears to possess the highest long-term upside. Once a 6’0 guard in early high school, Waterman sprouted up to 6’11 out of nowhere. No, this is not Anthony Davis 2.0, but a similar development context qualifies Waterman an enticing prospect to monitor as Paulus’ lays the foundation for the future. Noah Kratholm is likely the most ready to contribute right away, a 6’9 JUCO import who got his collegiate start at Duquesne.
Bottom Line: Niagara fans will be closely monitoring the early results to see how much Paulus steers away from Beilein’s vision. On one hand, he has little experience coaching and preaching that style of offense, but on the other hand, many of the newcomers joining the fold did so with that system in mind. It will be tough sledding for Paulus to gain traction in year 1, especially under these extraneous circumstances, but I’m cautiously optimistic he could be a viable long-term solution as the Purple Eagles’ main man.