- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Ja’vonte Smart, Trendon Watford, Darius Days, Charles Manning Jr.
Key Losses: Skylar Mays, Emmitt Williams, Marlon Taylor
Key Newcomers: Cameron Thomas, Josh LeBlanc (Georgetown), Shareef O’Neal (UCLA), Eric Gaines, Mwani Wilkinson, Jalen Cook, Josh Gray
*** Washington transfer Bryan Penn-Johnson was granted a waiver to be immediately eligible following the release of this preview. He’s a 7-footer with a decent recruiting pedigree but rarely saw the floor for the Huskies. He’ll add depth to an already solid frontcourt ***
Lineup:
Outlook:
LSU’s 2019-20 season was akin to a parabola. The Tigers started just 8-4 in non-conference play, losing close games to VCU, Utah State, ETSU, and USC but then blazed to an 8-0 start in SEC play. Once the calendar flipped to February (and the conference schedule increased in difficulty), LSU sputtered to a 4-6 league finish and finished three games behind SEC champ Kentucky. Will Wade’s squad was not deep last year but could be in 2020-21, especially when second semester rolls around and Josh LeBlanc and Shareef O’Neal become eligible.
Wade appears to have lifted the LSU program to a higher tier than it was at under previous coach Johnny Jones. Like Jones, Wade reels in recruits – LSU has ranked in the top six of recruiting classes in two of the past three seasons. Unlike Jones, Wade actually wins with good recruits. In 2017, Wade made a “strong ass offer” to current junior point guard Ja’vonte Smart who looks to lead the Tigers back to the Tourney in 2021.
Smart ranked 3rd in the SEC in minutes played last season and was incredibly efficient in conference play. At 6’4”, Smart has the size at the top of the key to see over opposing defenses and bully smaller defenders off the bounce. This year expect Smart to see even more action off pick-n-rolls with Skylar Mays’s graduation and to shoulder a bigger load in the scoring department. With his ability to put the ball in the hoop from all three levels and a palpable confidence you can see from TV, an increase in production responsibility shouldn’t be an issue.
Smart’s frontcourt counterpart is Wade’s crown jewel from the 2019 class, 6’9” forward Trendon Watford. Watford was an SEC All-Freshman Team member last season and seems poised to explode in his second (and probably final) year in college. His mobility, shooting range, and cutting ability makes him a perfect 5-man in Wade’s spread PnR attack.
Watford and Smart head an offense that promises to be as potent as ever. Wade’s offenses at LSU have ranked 33rd, 12th, and 4th nationally per KenPom, fueled by efficient shooting, good ball security, and dominance on the offensive glass. The Tigers like to play uptempo, run in transition, and attack the rim off the dribble. Appropriately, LSU adds arguably the best pure scorer in the class of 2020 this season in 5-star SG Cam Thomas, the all-time leading scorer in Oak Hill Academy history. In addition to being a prolific scorer in HS, Thomas also led the Nike EYBL in scoring in the summer of 2019. I truthfully cannot explain how Thomas scores at the level he does – he isn’t overly athletic; he isn’t overly strong; he isn’t overly quick – the ball just goes in the hole. Look for Thomas to join Smart in the starting backcourt this year where he’ll use his deadly floater and savvy offensive mind to put up numbers in his rookie season.
Rounding out the early season starting five will likely be junior forward Darius Days and senior wing Charles Manning, Jr. Days is a big 6’6” at 240 pounds; he bullies taller opponents in the paint with his mass and eats glass all game long. Days ranked 2nd in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate as a sophomore and is LSU’s primary ball screener. His power and aggressiveness is a nice offset to Watford’s more finesse style of play. Manning was a JUCO All-American two seasons ago and played very well for the Tigers prior to succumbing to a broken foot. The 6’5” versatile guard shot over 40% from deep and played tough defense – a rarity elsewhere on the roster in 2019-20. Fully healthy, Manning can be a dangerous two-way threat and a crucial “glue guy” in Wade’s rotation.
Returner Aundre Hyatt likely won’t play a whole lot this season with Wade’s incoming talent from the transfer wire and high school ranks. Hyatt adds backcourt depth to a loaded guard group.
The aforementioned Josh LeBlanc (Georgetown) and Shareef O’Neal (UCLA) are both highly anticipated transfers that should have immediate impacts once eligible. As alluded to, both guys have to sit as of now during November and December, but applications are in process to overturn those rulings. LeBlanc will have the biggest impact of the two and may even be able to play alongside Days and Watford, though his best position is the 4. A Baton Rouge native, LeBlanc left Georgetown last season under poor circumstances after playing just six games. The season prior, LeBlanc ranked 2nd in the Big East in offensive rating and was a beast on the glass and protecting the rim. His defensive ability will be his greatest addition to a program that has struggled defensively under Wade. O’Neal is of course Shaq’s heir to the throne. He didn’t get much of a chance at UCLA, but he’s a talented and versatile big man who can carve out a spot in the rotation off the pine.
Wade brings in a large freshman class this year. In addition to Thomas, he adds two 4-star recruits in point guard Eric Gaines and wing Mwani Wilkinson, and two 3-star prospects in Jalen Cook and Josh Gray. Gaines and Wilkinson are both top 100 recruits and should see floor time in 2019-20. Gaines is a quick, skinny lead guard who can simply fly – at 6’3”, it’s incredible how effortless his dunks look. Wilkinson, a Bishop Gorman alum, has tree trunks for legs and a strong, athletic frame. He’ll be a slashing threat and defensive presence from day one. Cook could actually compete with Gaines for primary minutes behind Smart and Thomas. He’s a compact 6’0” PG with a college-ready body and a heady mindset. Gray, a 7’0” center from Putnam Science Academy, won’t see much action in his first year.
If the Tournament hadn’t been canceled last year and offense was the only thing that mattered in basketball, the Tigers were a Final Four contender. Unfortunately, defense matters (a lot) in college hoops, despite the limited attention it seems to receive. LSU was dreadful on the defensive end in 2019-20, ranking 12th in the SEC per KenPom and 179th overall. The Tigers allowed far too many easy three-point looks, failed to force turnovers, and allowed a ton in transition. Wade’s glass crash attack is susceptible to scoring on the run, but it’s fairly strange how low LSU’s turnover rate was considering it pressed at the 65th highest clip in the country last year. As for the three-point aspect, Wade has focused heavily the past two seasons on protecting the rim above all else – perhaps a shift in philosophy is in order with so many athletic bodies on the perimeter in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: This is the second straight season I’ve ranked the Tigers around #25 in the preseason. LSU’s talent is immense, and Will Wade is a very capable coach, however the defensive woes of the past have me hesitant on calling this team top-20 caliber. Expect to see LSU in the Big Dance once again this year and compete for an SEC title.