-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Samuell Williamson, Jae'Lyn Withers, Malik Williams, Dre Davis
Key Losses: Carlik Jones, David Johnson
Key Newcomers: Elbert Ellis (JUCO), Jarrod West (Marshall), Noah Locke (Florida), Matt Cross (Miami FL), Roosevelt Wheeler, Michael James, Sydney Curry (JUCO)
** Note: Mason Faulkner is not shown in the roster picture below - he is not yet listed on the official school roster but all signs indicate he will be suiting up for the Cardinals this season.
Lineup:
Outlook: Look, an elephant!
This preview can’t commence without an obligatory reference to “The Chronicles of Chris Mack and Dino Gaudio”. This [fictional, made up] novel tells the age-old tale of how NCAA violations can tear two colleagues, and dear friends, apart.
This book is far from complete, though. On Wednesday, Gaudio’s side of the story finally broke. Please refer to Mike Rutherford’s continuing coverage of this circus for all the juicy details, but there’s one nugget worth bringing to light: Mack, apparently, went verbal scorched earth on his players and threatened to pull scholarships in the wake of a COVID and injury-ridden season that left the Cardinals as NCAA Tournament spectators. What this means for the Cardinals’ 2022 prognosis is anyone’s guess but smoke permeating from any player / coach tension, no matter how marginal, is noteworthy – make inferences at your own risk.
Ok, that’s enough preview housekeeping – let’s pivot to the hardwood.
Whatever it takes to bury last year’s calamity 10-feet under, Mack is all ears. To cleanse this tainted palate, Mack brought in seven fresh faces to the mix, three D1 transfers, two from the high school ranks, and two elite JUCO prospects. Carlik Jones’ dazzling display at the NBA draft combine convinced him to go pro, leaving a gaping hole at the point guard position.
Jones was one of the few bright spots throughout last year’s morbid season, elevating his successorship to the top of Mack’s priority list. We’ll start by spotlighting the top JUCO player in the land, Elbert ‘El’ Ellis. Though not a true point guard per se, Ellis is a dynamic playmaker and inventive shot maker, worthy of replicating a lot of what Jones brought to the table. He did a little bit of everything last season, averaging 18 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds a game while canning 42% and 76% from 3-point range and the free throw line, respectively.
Last season, Mack adopted a pick-n-roll heavy offensive attack, spearheaded by Jones as the driving force:
If Ellis asserts himself as a reliable PnR operator in summer workouts, expect Mack to optimize his skillset in a similar manner:
At first glance, Ellis looks like the odds-on favorite to shoulder the bulk of the initiation responsibilities, but Mack has a more democratic vision in mind. Some proof of Mack’s agenda lies in an offseason report from the Louisville Courier Journal, in which Ellis discussed how the revamped backcourt will play off each other:
"Knowing the fact that all of us can play on the ball or off the ball is going to be really good. We don't have to wait in transition, we can get in and go. Just being able to play with guys that can shoot the ball, and just know my game and know their game, it just makes it so much easier for them to get each other in spots and get each other good looks," Ellis said.
No longer will Louisville’s offense be steered by a ball dominant floor general but rather in a by-committee, tag team fashion. New arrivals Jarrod West and Noah Locke are both prolific shooters, but they can double as secondary creators. West juggled both duties at Marshall last season, flourishing in the Thundering Herd’s NASCAR-paced offense, while Locke was pigeonholed into a 3-point marksman at Florida.
It’s fair to question Locke’s ability as a co-creator. After all, his sub 5% career assist rate implies he’s codependent on others to feed him. Regardless, Mack will make good use of Locke’s long-range sniping. He weaponized the sharpshooting of Jordan Nwora and Ryan McMahon in each of the last two seasons through well designed screen sequences to set up open catch-and-shoot looks from the perimeter – put simply, Mack does not let premier shooting go to waste.
With the arrival of stretch forward Matt Cross from Miami FL, the Cards boast a similar triumvirate on the wing as the Ellis / Locke / West threesome in the backcourt. Former 4-star prospect Jae'Lyn Withers was a model of efficiency in his rookie season while Samuell Williamson finished on a high note after an up and down sophomore campaign. Williamson found himself in a rut halfway through the year, which bled over to shoddy efforts on the defensive end, and he ultimately squandered his spot in the starting rotation.
He bounced back in a big way when the calendar turned to February, though, laying the foundation for the potential explosion we’ve all been waiting for. His hit-or-miss offensive production is frustrating but his activity on the glass never waivers – he literally led the ACC in defensive rebounding rate in conference play.
If there’s a soft spot on the roster, it lies up front. The Cardinals crossed the season finish line with a top-50 defense last year but benefitted greatly from opposing shooting luck, both from 3-point range and from the charity stripe. Despite surrendering the 2nd highest 3-point attempt rate in the ACC, opponents converted at a dismal 28.5% clip. Meanwhile, ACC foes gashed the Cards’ brittle frontcourt, which offered little resistance at the rim.
The 2022 season trajectory hinges on the revitalization of Malik Williams, the pulse of the Cardinals’ interior unit. Williams’ fractured foot worsened during the pandemic, keeping him at bay for all but three games last season. Big things are expected of Williams heading into the 2021-22 campaign, but an in-depth report from SI.com highlights Mack’s adamance on being extremely cautious with Williams’ reintegration:
For the time being, Williams is taking part in individual workouts and drills with both the assistant coaches and Mack himself. This is in an effort to be "the healthiest Malik Williams that we can get" for the 2021-22 season. While he will likely not participate in 5-on-5 activities this summer, Mack believes Williams will be able to make a seamless transition when that time comes.
This is obviously an evolving situation but it carries huge implications for the Cardinals’ 2022 outlook. Roosevelt Wheeler projects as a college ready big but the Cards can’t afford Williams to be a shell of himself again.
Dre Davis is the other key piece to the puzzle. The barrel-chested power wing is a quintessential role player with a revved-up motor but, like Williamson, was a feast-or-famine contributor all year long. He hit a freshman wall late in the year and his production plummeted over the final three weeks of the season. Again, Davis marks another ‘wide range of outcomes’ player situation that Mack will have to nurture. To his credit, Davis serves as an invaluable tool defensively.
Bottom Line: The 2021-22 season represents a blank canvas. There’s plenty to nitpick at here, from off court distractions to volatile on floor production. The mitigating factor and potential antidote to all these concerns? Depth. Mack’s best teams have always leaned on a strong bench, which was essentially non-existence last season. Guys like Michael James, JJ Traynor and Sydney Curry may be stuck at the back of the line to start the year, but they have the chops to break into the core rotation - and that doesn’t even include Mason Faulkner, a recent Western Carolina defector who has apparently already enrolled at the school.
It all comes down to Mack’s ability to harness this roster optionality as an asset. If successful, the Cardinals have top-10 upside.