-Jim Root
Key Returners: Ayo Dosunmu, Kofi Cockburn, Giorgi Bezhanishvili, Trent Frazier, Da’Monte Williams
Key Losses: Andres Feliz, Alan Griffin (transfer), Kipper Nichols
Key Newcomers: Adam Miller, Andre Curbelo, Jacob Grandison (Holy Cross), Austin Hutcherson (D-II), Coleman Hawkins
Lineup:
Outlook: Our staunch support for Brad Underwood finally paid off in 2019-20, as the Fighting Illini finally rose to relevance, winning 21+ games for the first time since 2013 (only the second time since Bruce Weber), and were likely destined for more as one of the league’s hottest teams entering the Big Ten Tournament (had won five of six). With the relatively surprising return of both Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn after they flirted with the NBA Draft, the Illini are primed to take another leap this season, one that could restore the program back into the nation’s elite - a place it hasn’t been since 2005 and 2006.
On the court, Underwood’s flexibility and willingness to adapt to the players on his roster played a massive role in Illinois’ revival. He had previously eased off his pressure defense midseason at Oklahoma State, enabling that squad to overcome an 0-6 Big 12 start to still qualify for the NCAA Tournament, and he leaned all the way into it in 2019-20, going full pack line on the defensive end (some credit also goes to assistant Stephen Gentry). The impact on the Illini’s “Four Factors” was ginormous:
The more conservative approach allowed Cockburn to stay closer to the rim, challenging anything that slipped through the sturdy perimeter shell and dominating the glass alongside Giorgi Bezhanishvili, and it finally stopped opponents’ incessant parades to the free throw line. The end result was Underwood’s first top 35 defense in four seasons at a power conference school – and first top 50 defense, and first top 100 defense. It was a massive improvement, folks!
Cockburn’s presence inside was unmistakable. The behemoth, listed at a staggering 7’0, 290 pounds, became more and more comfortable with the team’s pick-and-roll coverage as the year went on, and although he’s not a textbook springy shot-blocker, his sheer size allows him to affect almost everything. That makes guards more comfortable staying close to shooters, and the increase in defensive 3PA rate when he sat is indicative of that:
Clearly, he had a strong effect on the offensive end, as well. He was a solid post up threat and a devastating roll man, with no one else even mildly mimicking his effectiveness in that spot: Cockburn was in the 93rd percentile, while Bezhanishvili was in the 12th.
The other massive bit of offseason news was Dosunmu’s decision to play a third collegiate season. He emerged into a shining star last year, leading the team in scoring and assists while maturing as a leader and decision-maker. His shot selection shifted more towards slashing, taking 49 fewer triples, which allowed him advantage of his tremendous length and quickness to beat opposing guards to the rim. He also became a cold-blooded killer late in games, burying numerous game-winning and game-clinching shots throughout the year. His return keeps the offensive floor high, and when paired with Cockburn, Illinois was outstanding:
With Dosunmu returning as the go-to guy on the perimeter and the crunch-time playmaker, Trent Frazier can continue to lurk as more of a secondary option. Following two high-usage campaigns to start his college career, he smartly took a back seat to Dosunmu and Andres Feliz in 2020. The freshman class also offers heavy reinforcements in the backcourt, giving Underwood a wealth of talent with which to work. Adam Miller is a prolific scoring guard and another southpaw to pair with Frazier, while Andre Curbelo is a tenacious pure point guard from Long Island that should fill the Feliz role nicely.
Miller may have some rookie hiccups, but the comparisons to Dosunmu will be inevitable. Both hail from vaunted Chicago high school Morgan Park, and their recruiting rankings are nearly identical (Miller is 29th via RSCI, Dosunmu was 32nd in 2018). Miller is more of a pure shooter and off-ball scorer, though, while Dosunmu has more on-ball creation and slashing skills in his toolbox. Both rookies are candidates to start in an offense that became more ball screen-heavy late in the year, going with what Gentry calls “mass movement” plays designed to get the Illini playmakers - especially Dosunmu - the ball in advantageous positions. He detailed one of those sets in a fantastic video breaking down the end of the road Wisconsin win:
Frazier runs a dribble handoff with Dosunmu, allowing the Illini’s best player to catch the ball on the move, and he immediately runs his defender off a Cockburn ball screen. Dosunmu ends up getting a wide open lane to the bucket because the help side defense is too worried about Alan Griffin coming around a down screen; it ends up being too much for even the outstanding Badger defense to handle at once.
Underwood consistently used Griffin in that spot, forcing defenses to account for his whereabouts as he darted off a variety of picks, and that production needs to be replaced following his decision to head to Syracuse. Two incoming transfers, Jacob Grandison and Austin Hutcherson, are the most likely candidates to fill that slot. Both 6’6 wings, the two hit 69 and 65 threes, respectively, in their most recent college seasons, and the playing time edge will probably go to whoever proves most comfortable on the defensive end. They’re taking significant leaps up in competition, and while sitting out a year should help have them ready to play, three-guard lineups with three of Frazier, Dosunmu, Miller, and Curbelo could become an Underwood staple if neither proves ready right away.
Sorting out the rest of the frontcourt minutes will be another challenge for Underwood & Co. The Cockburn/Giorgi minutes actually went quite well last year, despite many Illini fans protestations to the contrary:
Griffin’s departure makes it tougher to play small ball (though Da’Monte Williams is a serviceable choice), but it’s another rookie that offers the most upside. Coleman Hawkins, a spindly 6’10 freshman who played for the decorated Prolific Prep squad alongside Jalen Green (G-League) and Nimari Burnett (Texas Tech), might actually be the best shooter on the roster. He has an effortless high release from distance, and his court awareness was also noticeable on tape. He allows Underwood to maintain size without sacrificing spacing, so expect to see him earn minutes early on if his defense holds up. Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk will play if Hawkins isn’t ready, while Jermaine Hamlin and Brandon Lieb may find it tough to get minutes until Cockburn and/or Bezhanishvili depart.
Bottom Line: Following a strong 2020, hopes for 2021 are stratospheric, with many outlets tabbing the Illini as a top 10 squad. We’re only slightly more bearish, as the shooting concerns here are enough to give us some pause, along with questions about the ceiling of a core that’s nearly identical to the one that was not a top 25 team last year. Still, there’s a ton to like here. Cockburn will lock down the paint, and Dosunmu’s perimeter brilliance plus the impressive freshmen give Underwood a stacked guard rotation. If two or more of Miller, Grandison, Hutcherson, and Hawkins can alleviate the shooting concerns, the Illinois optimists could be validated with a huge season in Champaign-Urbana - one that has legitimate Final Four aspirations.