- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: DeJon Jarreau, Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser, Caleb Mills, Justin Gorham, Brison Gresham
Key Losses: Fabian White (Injury)**, Nate Hinton, Chris Harris
Key Newcomers: Cameron Tyson (Idaho), Tramon Mark, Jamal Shead, Kiyron Powell, J’Wan Roberts (Redshirt), Reggie Chaney (Arkansas)***
*** Reggie Chaney is awaiting a waiver to be immediately eligible this season ***
** Fabian White tore his ACL this offseason **
Lineup:
How many Hoosier fans out there wish they still had Kelvin Sampson roaming the sidelines? Every single one of them? Sounds about right. All Sampson has ever done during his coaching career is win, including at IU when he went 43-15 prior to being fired due to making a few impermissible phone calls. It took Sampson six years to land another head coaching job when he took over for James Dickey at UH in 2014. Since then, all he’s done is turn the Cougars into an AAC powerhouse. Taking away that first season at Houston, Sampson has led the Coogs to a 125-40 (67-23) record and 83-20 (43-11) mark over the past three years. Last season’s squad was set to land another favorable seed in March, ranking 14th in KenPom’s metrics despite its relative lack of high-quality wins. In our Way Too Early Top 25 released on March 22nd, we ranked the Cougars 7th nationally – since then, Nate Hinton declared he was staying in the NBA Draft and Fabian White tore his ACL. Despite the injuries, we’re still very high on this year’s Houston team – in Kelvin Sampson we trust.
Sampson gave a webinar during one of the NABC coaching seminars this summer, and I was lucky enough to tune in. In the webinar, Sampson talked about how his team practices, his defensive philosophy, and his emphasis on rebounding. The Coogs have been one of the nation’s best defensive teams in each of the past three years, driven significantly by the amount of work they put in in practice. The shell drill is Houston’s “bible” per Sampson, a drill that most likely every player in the country despises. This drill teaches defensive rotations and positioning and helps form the foundation for Houston’s goal defensively: protect the paint at all costs. Houston is content with giving up contested threes, but it is not okay with allowing post touches and easy drives into the lane. The Coogs do not rack up steals by design and allow very little on the block. Last season, Houston allowed the 11th fewest post-ups in the country, putting philosophy into practice. And, despite Sampson’s willingness to give up threes, the Coogs are damn good at making opponents miss. Only seven teams allowed a lower 3PFG% last season and Houston ranked 3rd in the nation in PPP allowed via spot-ups. The Coogs stunt at would-be shooters, close off driving lanes, and recover to their men as well as any team in the country.
Sampson joked in the NABC webinar that his team was the “most foulingest team in all of mankind”, alluding to Houston’s sky-high FT rate allowance over the past three years. This will likely continue to be a weakness of the Coog defense, but they do everything else extremely well.
Offensively, Houston slows it down and puts a heavy emphasis on rebounding. Sampson’s goal for his team every game is to grab 50% of their missed shots. Again, Houston’s players proved they could put philosophy into practice last year by ranking 2nd in the country in OR% in 2019-20, a key reason their overall offense ranked 22nd nationally and 2nd in the AAC. The Coogs were the 4th most zoned team last year, likely due to their insistence on settling for tough mid-range jumpers and general lack of outside shooting. When facing man, Houston implements a balanced attack with a slow tempo – shot quality wasn’t great last year, but the Coogs still found a way to put points on the board.
The strength of Houston lies in its backcourt where Sampson has four potential All-League players plus a DI transfer and a couple promising recruits joining the fold. Super sophs Caleb Mills and Marcus Sasser both earned spots on the AAC’s All-Freshman Team a year ago and Mills etched his name on the All-Conference Second Team despite starting just seven games. Mills is instant offense off the bench, a role I’d wager Sampson would prefer he’d resume in his second season. When Mills was on the court, he led the AAC in usage, gunning shot after shot after shot. Streakiness and shot selection plagued Mills (he shot 37.5% from deep but just 37.1% from two in league play), but there’s no doubt about his ability to put the ball through the basket. Curiously, Houston was actually better offensively from a points per possession standpoint when Mills sat last year:
Info per Hoop Lens
You can see the Coogs’ FG% took a massive hit when Mills graced the floor, a likely result of poor shot selection and too much iso ball, two main improvement points for Mills as a sophomore. Sasser fills a more complementary role offensively – he’s primarily a spot-up shooter from deep. When he sat, the Coogs shot just 29.4% from three-point land; when he played, that 3PFG% spiked to 36.3%. Both players can handle the ball, run the offense, and mix it up defensively.
The upperclassmen in the backcourt are 6’5” point guard DeJon Jarreau and 6’5” wing Quentin Grimes. Jarreau is Houston’s primary ball handler and has ranked in the top five of his conference’s assist rate in each of his three collegiate seasons, dating back to his UMass days. While not a good outside shooter, Jarreau is excellent off the bounce and rebounds well for his position. Just look at those short shorts in action:
The defensive end is where Jarreau really shines – his length is key to bothering opposing point guards and would-be shooters. Grimes received a waiver last year after transferring from Kansas and started flashing signs of his immense HS recruiting pedigree. Though is 3P% fell, Grimes improved in every other metric and statistical category in his sophomore campaign. His presence is vital to the Houston offense with his ability to score from anywhere on the floor and use his strength to bully wings inside the arc. Defensively, he’s not the best, but Sampson has plenty other talented perimeter defenders to help him out.
Backing up the fearsome foursome will be a combination of Idaho transfer Cameron Tyson and freshmen Tramon Mark and Jamal Shead. Tyson was one of Idaho’s best players as a freshman (yes, they did suck) and ranked 2nd in the Big Sky in percentage of team shots taken. He brings much-needed shooting the roster after knocking down 41% of his long-ball tries in 2018-19. Mark is a big 6’5” PG in the mold of Jarreau. A top 100 4-star recruit, Mark is a long, skilled lefty with impressive off-the-bounce ability and significant defensive potential. Everything about him suggests he’s a tailor made “Sampson guy”. Shead is a top 200 3-star PG, a strong and stout guard with impeccable quickness and passing chops.
Fabian White’s offseason ACL tear puts strain on a thin Houston frontcourt, but the good news is the Coogs really don’t need their big men to do much outside of play defense and rebound the basketball. Low usage 5-man Brison Gresham is a perfect center for this system – he gobbles boards, catches alley-oops, and blocks shots at a monstrous rate when on the floor. Sampson might throw out several 4-guard looks next season, but if he goes with two bigs, former Towson transfer Justin Gorham will see plenty of run next to Gresham. Gorham is a lanky rebounder who started to toy with his shooting range last season – if he can develop into a consistent spot-up threat from the 4-spot, he’ll help unlock another element to Houston’s offensive attack. Redshirt freshman J’Wan Roberts could see significant time this season as well; he’s a tough, athletic forward who offers more versatility than Gorham and Gresham. 3-star freshman center Kiyron Powell is a skinny big likely a year or two away before contributing consistently. 6’8” Arkansas transfer Reggie Chaney will be seeking a waiver this offseason to become immediately eligible. If he’s granted that waiver, he adds key depth to the frontcourt and will function as yet another “know-your-role” forward who will impact the game on both ends of the floor.
Bottom Line: Just like the past three seasons, Houston is going to be very good in 2020-21. White’s injury and Hinton’s pro departure hurt, but the Coogs still have plenty of depth and are led by a top 15 coach in the country. Sampson has his system running like a well-oiled machine – the Coogs should be considered the heavy favorites in the AAC this season and a threat to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.