-Jim Root

Player of the Year: Loudon Love, R Sr., Wright St.
Coach of the Year: Luke Yaklich, Illinois Chicago
Newcomer of the Year: D’Moi Hodge, R Jr., Cleveland St.
Freshman of the Year: John Harge, Northern Kentucky

Tier 1

1. Wright St.

Key Returners: Loudon Love, Tanner Holden, Jaylon Hall, Grant Basile, Trey Calvin, James Manns
Key Losses: Billy Wampler, Cole Gentry, Jordan Ash
Key Newcomers: Tim Finke (Grand Canyon), Alex Huibregtse, Andrew Welage, Brandon Noel

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a season in which Wright State went 25-7 overall, 15-3 in the Horizon (winning the league by two games), Coach Scott Nagy was just a wee bit nonplussed by his team having zero chance at an at-large – and he put the blame exactly where it belongs:

“I don’t want to go through and have our 25 wins count for nothing. In order for that to happen, our league has to get better,” Nagy said. “The (non-conference) schedule is a portion of it, but you also can’t count as much on it because you really don’t know what kind of year teams are going to have…We’d just like to see our league get better. It’s incumbent upon everybody to be serious about that.”

Of course, the Raiders could simply have avoided losing to a talented but under-achieving UIC team for the second time of the year, but Nagy’s point is spot-on: the rest of the Horizon has crumbled around them, Northern Kentucky excepted. From 2010-2015, the league ranked no lower than 14th in KenPom’s conference rankings, allowing for the *possibility* of supporting an at-large resume. However, Butler left during the 2012 offseason, Valparaiso bounced in 2017, and the rest of the league has not picked up any slack:

Wright State looks like the class of the conference again in 2020-21, but given the Horizon’s deterioration, Nagy knows his team will have to be at its best come tournament time.

The strength of this roster is in the frontcourt, and Nagy expects his team to be much better defensively and on the glass as a result. Most notably, the defensive boards were a surprising weak spot: after his first three WSU teams all ranked in the top 73 nationally in defensive rebound rate, last year saw that number plummet to 246th with Nagy opting to play a smaller, more four-out lineup. With the enormous Loudon Love anchoring the paint and a versatile, intriguing group around him – promising sixth man Grant Basile, prolific forward James Manns, and budding star Tanner Holden – Wright State should have more size and physicality on the court.

“I think our defense and rebounding will be better. We’re going to be bigger. We’re going to be more physical.” - Nagy

With Billy Wampler spacing the court as the nominal power forward, Nagy rarely played Love alongside Basile or Manns, but those combinations should see the light of day this time year. Unless Basile finds some perimeter touch, that will cramp the Raiders’ spacing, but it will also make scoring at the rim nearly impossible for opponents and put two devastating offensive rebounders on the court together (three if you include Holden at SF), amplifying what was already a strength.

The backcourt contains more uncertainty, though. Nagy gave his smaller lineup the freedom to run in the open floor, but ball-handlers Cole Gentry and Jordan Ash both graduated, leaving a huge workload for sophomore Trey Calvin. Calvin got his feet wet last year but struggled, especially shooting the ball, and Nagy probably slows the pace to allow Calvin more time to grow into the role. Jaylon Hall is a serviceable secondary creator, and newcomers Tim Finke and Andre Harris should both get chances to lead the offense at times, as well.

Finke is the headliner among the guards, a big-bodied wing who was a lauded recruit for GCU two years ago. He will hopefully provide some perimeter punch around an offense that will heavily feature Love and Basile inside; Wright State ranked 35th nationally in post up possessions last year, and that number may rise while more frequently playing two bigs. Nagy will need Finke, Hall, Holden, and Calvin to punish the double-teams those big men inevitably see, either via precision shooting or astute cutting (preferably both). Freshmen Andrew Welage, younger brother of former Xavier and SJSU sharpshooter Ryan Welage, and Alex Huibregtse will also have every chance to earn minutes, particularly due to their pinpoint perimeter marksmanship.

Perhaps the most intriguing offensive piece is Manns. With Love out with injury in early December, Manns poured in 58 points in three games off the bench, and his shooting stroke (43.5% from deep on 46 attempts), size, and aggressive style make him a dangerous weapon. He’ll need to sustain his impressive production in a larger role this year.

Bottom Line: The Raiders have the league’s Player of the Year in Love, the co-Coach of the Year in Nagy, and two returning members of the All-Freshman team in Basile and Holden. Love is a massively influential force on both ends of the court, and Hall is a tremendous defensive perimeter stopper thanks to his length and effort. That makes Wright State well-positioned to defend last year’s title, and although the offense will inevitably fall off somewhat, the defense is capable of making up that ground. Unfortunately, the Horizon’s overall lack of punch means the Raiders’ NCAA hopes will once again hinge on earning the automatic bid.

Tier 2

2. Youngstown St.

Key Returners: Darius Quisenberry, Naz Bohannon, Michael Akuchie, Garrett Covington
Key Losses: Donel Cathcart, Devin Morgan, Jelani Simmons (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Myles Hunter, Shemar Rathan-Mayes, Greyson Kelley (Division II), Alex Vargo, William Dunn, Chieck Traore

Lineup:

Outlook: The Jerrod Calhoun Rebuild enters Year Four on a clear upward trajectory: Youngstown State’s KenPom rating has gone from 322 to 259 to 232, and the Calhoun’s win total has followed the same route: 8 to 12 to 18. Considering the amount of key returning pieces in a fluid league, the incremental improvement appears likely to continue, giving the sport of college basketball something it has needed for far too long: Penguins in a potentially prominent position. If you’re not on board with this fella becoming a household figure during March Madness, then we already have beef:

Calhoun, a former Bob Huggins assistant and head coach at Division II Fairmont State, has done an exemplary job slowly-but-surely constructing a program in his image. His offenses reflect those of Huggins: a skilled lead guard orchestrating most of the action, long wings making complementary plays, physical big men that attack the glass with reckless abandon. The conductor of this particular squad is Darius Quisenberry, who went through the (COVID-limited) NBA Draft process this offseason to fine-tune the weaknesses in his game. Calhoun runs a ton of action to get him the ball on the move, whether that’s coming off handoffs or down screens, hoping his momentum can bend the defense and open a passing lane for the clever point man:

He’s an outstanding creator against one-on-one coverage, as well, and the offense fell off quite a bit when he hit the bench, per Hoop Lens: 1.03 points per possession with him on the court, 0.94 PPP without him.

When he sits, the Penguins’ best offense is often playing through its athletic big men, Naz Bohannon and Michael Akuchie. Bohannon frequently has the ball at the elbow or the top of the key, tasked with attacking his (usually slower) man off the bounce or making reads with Quisenberry or backcourt mate Garrett Covington cutting off the ball. Akuchie is more of a stretch big, though his shot came and went throughout the year (just 28.7% from deep). Both players also barrage the boards, and sixth man Jamir Thomas is a 275-pound menace who punishes worn-down frontcourts like a goal line back in football.

The rest of the rotation will rely on freshmen and Division II transfer Greyson Kelley. Kelley comes from absolutely horrendous team, but he’s a pure shooter who can add spacing for Quisenberry & Co. to operate. Shemar Rathan-Mayes, younger brother of former Florida State guard Xavier, and Myles Hunter both should play immediately, as well. The smaller Rathan-Mayes hails from Canadian powerhouse Orangeville Prep, and he’ll allow Quisenberry to slide off the ball on occasion, a rare luxury last year, while Hunter is a bigger wing athlete that will hopefully make an impact on the defensive end.

That end of the court has been a struggle under Calhoun, as the Penguins have ranked outside the top 300 in AdjDE in all three of his campaigns. His apprenticeship under Huggins predated “Press Virginia,” and YSU has been appropriately conservative in its half court man-to-man as a result. Bohannon and Akuchie are an undersized pairing in the frontcourt, failing to frustrate opponents inside, and the Penguins simply weren’t very difficult to play against.

They did excel in terms of shot distribution, consistently forcing opponents into the mid-range and ranking an impressive 67th in defensive shot quality, per Dribble Handoff. That gap between Shot Quality and AdjDE rank (67 vs 303) was the second-widest in the country, indicating that other areas (not forcing turnovers, not cleaning the glass) have been the Penguins’ downfall. It basically comes down to this: if YSU opponents are able to take a huge number of shots, enough of them will go win.

Bottom Line: With Quisenberry back to lead the charge, this season should again be the best of the Calhoun era. YSU will need some contributions from the unproven newcomers, and the defense must take a step forward to finish this high in the Horizon, but Calhoun is a smart coach and the offense should excel. If we’re lucky as fans – both in terms of the event happening on time, plus Youngstown State conquering the conference – the NCAA Tournament could turn into the March of the Penguins.

3. Northern Kentucky

Key Returners: Trevon Faulkner, Bryson Langdon, Adrian Nelson, Adham Eleeda
Key Losses: Dantez Walton, Tyler Sharpe, Jalen Tate (grad transfer), Silas Adheke (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Darius Harding (JUCO), Marques Warrick, Trey Robinson, David Bohm

Lineup:

Outlook: Northern Kentucky didn’t miss a beat without John Brannen, as the Norse won 20+ games for the 4th consecutive season despite their head coach leaving for nearby Cincinnati. New boss Darrin Horn inherited a terrific roster, and he smartly didn’t tinker too much with the system Brannen had constructed, instead opting to trust the veteran core that was already in place. As a result, NKU was slated to participate in its third NCAA Tournament in the past four years before COVID cut the 2020 season at the knees.

Horn’s immediate success was especially impressive considering the injury issues NKU faced. Star guard Jalen Tate got hurt early on, and right as he returned, Dantez Walton suffered a chest injury robbing the Norse of two all-conference performers for extended stretches. Horn lamented the consistent need to recalibrate his team’s approach on the fly:

“We kind of feel like we coached four different teams this year,” Horn says. “The one we started with; the one without Tate; the one without Dantez; and now the one with everybody trying to get healthy.”

The ultra-steady Tyler Sharpe was the crucial constant, but the lefty sniper was frustratingly denied an additional year of eligibility due to playing 11 minutes as a freshman walk-on at Louisville (a walk-on!!). With no Sharpe, no Walton, and no Tate (who grad transferred to Arkansas), Horn faces a far more difficult task this year.

Without last year’s “Big Three,” Trevon Faulkner ascends into a starring role. He flashed brilliance last year, tallying double-figure scoring in 13 of 14 games during a stretch from late December to mid-February (largely coinciding with games where Walton was out/limited), and Horn gushes about the former Kentucky Mr. Basketball award winner. Incoming recruits Trey Robinson and Marques Warrick bring impressive scoring genes to the backcourt as well, and Warrick nearly repeated Faulkner’s Mr. Basketball feat.

Faulkner’s shooting (just 29.9% from deep) will need to see an uptick, though, as the Norse offense is heavily reliant on spreading the court with shooting and then attacking the gaps created. NKU ranked 3rd the entire country in percentage of possessions ending on a “Spot Up” opportunity at nearly 35%; Sharpe and Walton were a big part of that. Wings Adham Eleeda and Paul Djoko should earn greater opportunities this year, though Eleeda must rediscover his prolific JUCO stroke from 2018-19, when he buried a staggering 129 triples at 40.8%. If he can’t, another JUCO transfer, newcomer Darius Harding, may have the inside track to start thanks to his more versatile offensive arsenal.

As for attacking the gaps, Tate was terrific at that, knifing his lanky 6’6 frame through those narrow crevices and drawing significant defensive attention. Veteran guard Bryson Langdon offers a drastically different physical profile at just 5’9, but he’s a jitterbug who can stress the defense by beating his own man off the bounce. Like Faulkner, though, his shooting was a deficiency, and his lack of size hurt on the defensive end, as well. That could lead to Warrick getting some minutes at point guard.

The other defensive question mark is in the paint, where starter Silas Adheke joined Tate in taking the grad transfer route. Adrian Nelson’s relentless offensive rebounding and efficient finishing consistently boosted the offense (1.08 PPP when he played, 0.94 PPP when he sat, per Hoop Lens), but he’s slightly undersized and not a rim protector. David Wassler has size but has barely played in two years, and freshman Noah Hupmann will need time to develop too. Redshirt freshman John Harge could be the difference-maker after missing last year with injury. He put up major numbers for the vaunted Hillcrest Prep (albeit for the postgrad team), and he has the shooting stroke at 6’8 to pull opposing bigs out away from the basket a la Walton.

Bottom Line: Horn loses a sizable chunk of what made NKU so tough to beat last year, but his impressive ability to adjust to injuries in 2019-20 bodes well for this new campaign. Faulkner should blossom into an all-conference star, and as long as Nelson and Harge can hold down the fort inside, NKU should remain near the upper echelon of the league. There’s risk for any team that ranks 283rd nationally in returning possession minutes (per Bart Torvik), but Horn has won consistently at this level, so we’ll take an optimistic view on NKU.

4. Illinois-Chicago

Key Returners: Michael Diggins, Braelen Bridges, Jamie Ahale, Rob Howard (injury)
Key Losses: Tarkus Ferguson, Godwin Boahen, Marcus Ottey
Key Newcomers: Teyvion Kirk (Colorado St./Ohio), Maurice Commander (Chattanooga), Zion Griffin (Iowa St.), RayQwandis Mitchell (JUCO), Jalen Johnson (JUCO), Demetrius Calip II

Lineup:

Outlook: It seemed only a matter of time until Luke Yaklich got a head coaching break, having gained significant notoriety as the ace defensive assistant to Dan Muller at Illinois State and then to John Beilein at Michigan. After Beilein’s shocking (and short-lived) foray into the professional ranks, Yaklich saddled up with Shaka Smart at Texas, but Illinois-Chicago quickly brought the Land of Lincoln native home after just one year. Yaklich replaces Steve McClain, who was let go after five reasonably successful seasons, but the school just west of the Chicago Loop has higher aspirations.

As mentioned, Yaklich is a defensive whiz. In 2016-17, he helped Muller and ISU reach 19th in KenPom’s AdjDE rankings; in the three years following, the Redbirds have peaked at 139th. At Michigan, the Wolverines ranked 3rd and 2nd in during his two-year tenure and fell to 28th without him despite retaining stalwart defenders in Jon Teske and Zavier Simpson. Any positive outlook for the Flames starts on the defensive end, where

Yaklich’s maniacal preparation is part of what makes his teams so terrific defensively, but he also needs athletes who can pick up on his schemes and adjustments. To that end, McClain left behind an impressive frontcourt quintet that will provide a sturdy interior foundation. Braelen Bridges is the biggest and longest of the bunch. He’s a fluid athlete for his size, but a lot will be asked of him as UIC’s version of Teske. Meanwhile, Michael Diggins and Rob Howard are more versatile forwards, and although Howard missed all of 2019-20 with injury, he should mesh well into Yaklich’s scheme. Finally, Deon Ejim and Jacob Wiley fit the Yaklich bill perfectly: switchable, strong, and active on the defensive glass. The Flames will extend to take away the three-point line, and the sticky half court alignment forces a steady diet of mid-range jumpers:

That 2017-18 Wolverines squad was the platonic ideal of defensive shot distribution.

As Yaklich took over in Chicago, the questions surrounding his team centered on the perimeter group, both defensively and in terms of shot creation. Among the winners due to the NCAA’s waiver frenzy – and there are many – UIC is near the top, having secured immediate eligibility for three key transfers: PG Maurice Commander, scoring combo guard Teyvion Kirk, and athletic wing Zion Griffin. That may immediately become the team’s starting perimeter trio, with veteran Aussie shooter Jamie Ahale relegated to a more appropriate bench role and JUCO transfers RayQwandis Mitchell and Jalen Johnson set to provide depth.

Commander is a key addition on both ends, giving Yaklich a pesky on-ball defender and a pass-first facilitator who can run pick-and-roll. That’s crucial alongside Kirk, a talented scorer who becomes something of a black hole when tasked with being the lead ball-handler (just check his efficiency numbers at Ohio – oof). He was better as a freshman when he got to play off the ball more, which bodes well for this year. The best athlete on the roster is probably Griffin, a former 4-star recruit who is built like a truck and will be a dangerous weapon in transition and as a downhill slasher in the half court. Yaklich will also hope he can play the Charles Matthews role on defense as a shutdown wing.

It’s not entirely clear how Yaklich will run his offense – in this piece by The Athletic’s Brian Hamilton, he described his approach as “functionally fast” – but with Beilein and Muller as mentors, a steady diet of ball screens seems likely once in the half court. Commander hails from a Chattanooga offense that was more motion/swing-based, but he’s a heady player that should pick up the scheme quickly, and it helps to have Kirk as a secondary creator (plus Johnson as a decent backup). The big men aren’t necessarily pure scorers, but Diggins and Howard can stretch the floor, and all of them can be authoritative finishers inside, meaning the defense can’t just sell out against Kirk/Griffin. Mitchell and Ahale will add some scoring pop off the bench, as well.

Bottom Line: It may seem like it’s been a long time coming for Yaklich to get his head coaching break, but he’s only been a college coach since 2013, which is a meteoric rise in such an intensely competitive field. Back home and comfortable in Illinois, he skillfully assembled an impressive roster in the midst of a pandemic, and UIC could be massively undervalued if the Flames take to the defensive scheme and the offense coalesces. There’s some risk, but you probably already guessed the Weave would be high on a Yaklich-led team.

Tier 3

5. Oakland

Key Returners: Rashad Williams, Daniel Oladapo, Kevin Kangu, Blake Lampman
Key Losses: Xavier Hill-Mais, Brad Brechting, Trey Maddox (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jalen Moore (JUCO), Philipps Joseph, Trey Townsend, Micah Immanuel-Parrish, Joey Holifield, Zion Young (Western Illinois)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Even the greats have down years, and Greg Kampe currently finds his Oakland Golden Grizzlies program in something of a lull. Oakland’s KenPom ranking has declined in four consecutive seasons, and the team’s league record dipped below .500 last year for only the second time since 2006. Having captained the Golden Grizz ship since 1984, this is certainly not the first rut Kampe has found himself in, and time and again he’s re-elevated the program back to the top of the conference, so odds are the 64-year-old will once again reverse Oakland’s course. The question, though, is whether that turnaround will be immediate or a gradual build.

Kampe will be the first (and loudest) to tell you that transfers have played a part in the current decline, with key guys like Jaevin Cumberland and Braden Norris having left to seek a new environment. Of course, that ignores that many of Oakland’s best recent players have been transfers themselves (Martez Walker, Kendrick Nunn, Sherron Dorsey-Walker, Percy Gibson, etc.) – even this year’s star, Rashad Williams, started his career at conference rival Cleveland State. Live by the sword, die by the sword, I suppose.

Williams is the only place to properly begin addressing this year’s squad. Once eligible in mid-January, the Detroit native wasted no time establishing himself as the perimeter alpha, launching 20 shots in his debut and rarely leaving the court from that point on (he played 37+ minutes in 13 of his 15 appearances). He has zero conscience from beyond the arc, averaging 12.6 attempts per game (!!), the most in the country by nearly two per contest. His boundless swagger should be an inspiration to us all (please note the pre-shot stare and the post-shot shimmy):

Unfortunately, the team’s guards struggled around him last year, forcing Kampe to slam the brakes on the Golden Grizzly offense. Oakland ranked 285th in adjusted tempo, the lowest such ranking in the KenPom era, but don’t expect that to continue:

“Next year I think we will be able to go back to playing at a faster pace and that will only help (Williams).” - Kampe

Adding two notable running mates in JUCO All-American Jalen Moore and physical freshman Joey Holifield will be crucial to that strategy, as senior guard Kevin Kangu was terribly inefficient upon arriving from JUCO powerhouse Vincennes and rising sophomore Blake Lampman is little more than a spot up gunner. Moore in particular should be able to use his speed and vision to push the pace and find Williams in transition, fitting more comfortably into the way Kampe prefers to play. Western Illinois transfer Zion Young would add another devastating transition weapon to the fold; he underachieved for a moribund WIU team, but he has strong pedigree out of the Chicago area and could blossom in Kampe’s system if he gets a waiver.

As bright as Williams’ green light is from beyond the arc, the red alert warning signs for Oakland’s interior scoring and defense are nearly as luminous. Only one contributor returns from last year’s frontcourt, and the strength of Daniel Oladapo’s game are on the offensive glass and his ability to score in the paint. Little-used junior Babatunde Sowunmi ascends to the starting center role by default, and though he has the physical tools needed to control the paint, the huge Nigerian needs to catch up with the speed of the game and develop his skill level. He only started playing basketball in 2016, after all.

The freshman class offers reinforcements, and all three frontcourt recruits could see immediate playing time. Chris Conway is the antithesis of Sowunmi at the center spot: he has a smooth outside stroke, but he is still adding strength to compete inside. Trey Townsend is more of a big wing, but the player to keep an eye on is Philpps Joseph, a skilled 240-pounder who can knock down threes or battle in the paint. The Brooklyn native impressed me on tape, and Kampe compared him to a young Xavier Hill-Mais (last year’s leading scorer), an awfully high compliment.

Bottom Line: Oakland has a star in Williams and should return to Kampe’s up-and-down, attacking tempo, but the Golden Grizzlies will be reliant on young and inexperienced players at multiple positions, meaning their results could be up-and-down, as well. Don’t expect Oakland to challenge Wright State for the regular season title, but the Grizz can beat almost anyone when Williams is hot, and Kampe should mold them into a formidable foe by the time postseason play rolls around.

6. Cleveland St.

Key Returners: Al Eichelberger, Torrey Patton, Craig Beaudion, Tre GoMillion, Franklyn Penn, Deante Johnson, Hugo Ferreira
Key Losses: Jalaam Hill, Kasheem Thomas
Key Newcomers: D’Moi Hodge (JUCO), Yahel Hill (JUCO), Chris Greene (JUCO), Jayson Woodrich, Mabor Majak, Alec Oglesby (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s rare to see a July coaching change, but Cleveland State had little choice after the players staged a near-mutiny against now-former coach Dennis Felton during the 2019 offseason. Dennis Gates was hired away from Florida State to clean up the mess, and expectations were minimal-to-nonexistent considering the exodus of talent the Vikings had seen. With the roster he had remaining, Gates implemented a system that tried to mask the weaknesses of his roster (outside shooting) while embracing its strengths (athleticism, a physical scoring big) and keeping things largely familiar to his Florida State training ground. Calling an 11-21 (7-11) season a resounding success may sound like sarcasm, but in the eyes of the Weave, that was an immense accomplishment when something far worse (5-27?) appeared to be on the table.

First and foremost within that approach was hammering the paint on offense by any means possible. The fulcrum in the half court was burly forward Al Eichelberger, who ranked 37th in the entire country in usage rate via a huge helping of post touches and an attacking mindset on the offensive glass. He helped CSU rank 4th nationally in percentage of shots at the rim, barreling his way inside whenever he could and earning a steady stream of trips to the free throw line for his efforts. He only shot 46.4% from the field, disappointing for a guy who spent most of his time inside, but in his defense, he was constantly swarmed by double- and triple-teams because foes were laughably unintimidated by the Vikings’ collection of “shooters.”

CSU ranked dead last nationally in points scored from beyond the arc (only 16.6% of total points), and its hard to emphasize just how putrid the Vikings were from deep. Fortunately for you, dear reader, I’ll try to demonstrate! Let’s start with this - five players made more threes per game than the entire Cleveland State team:

Granted, the Vikings attempted the fewest threes in the entire sport, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing when you rank 340th in 3P% (28.4%). But the impact on the offense was obvious, obliterating any hope of decent floor spacing and allowing foes to collapse inside on Eichelberger and Deante Johnson. We’ll call CSU “The Anti-BYU” because of the way the complete dearth of shooting (and ball-handling) doomed the offense:

On that last point – injuries did not help. CSU was beset with players cycling in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries, including guards Craig Beaudion, Franklyn Penn, and Hugo Ferreira. Eventually, eight players started 9+ games, and another started six, underscoring just how little consistency the Vikings’ lineups had. Seven of those guys return, giving Gates another deep roster, but a couple newcomers may be the secret to clawing up the chaotic Horizon ladder.

JUCO transfer D’Moi Hodge is the headliner, a do-everything wing who stuffed the stat sheet in basically every category. He adds a dynamic one-on-one threat to the perimeter, and he and Yahel Hill both could help the anemic three-point shooting. Meanwhile, Sudanese freshman Mabor Majak becomes the tallest player on the roster by five inches, and the lanky center could pair with Eichelberger or Johnson at times to give the Vikings a towering frontcourt. Seeing a Leonard Hamilton mentee grab a 7’2 recruit is a comforting sign of normalcy, as well.

Defensively, Gates pressured as much as he could when his beat-up lineup allowed it, extending to full court at the 26th-highest rate in the country. A backcourt of Beaudion, Penn, Ferreira, Tre Gomillion, and Torrey Patton has a ton of quickness and length, and Hodge and Hill expand on the backcourt surplus. That array of options will also let Gates play small and switch a ton, another staple of Hamilton’s defensive success at FSU, while relying on Big Al or Majak to make things difficult at the rim.

Bottom Line: Considering the tumultuous July and the injuries strewn throughout the season, CSU may have maxed out its potential last year. Gates will have his hopes set much higher, though, and if Hodge is as good as I think he can be (Horizon Newcomer of the Year?), competing with the morass in the middle of the league is a realistic goal. The ceiling may still be capped by lingering shooting deficiencies, but the Vikings will leave opponents sore and exhausted the day after playing them.

7. Robert Morris

Key Returners: AJ Bramah, Dante Tracy, Jon Williams, Charles Bain
Key Losses: Josh Williams, Yannis Mendy, Sayveon McEwen, Jalen Hawkins (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Enoch Cheeks, Tyson Brown, Trayden Williams, Kam Farris, Patrick Suemnick, Kahliel Spear (Bucknell)***

*** - needs waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Recent offseasons have seen some whispers about Robert Morris potentially changing conferences, but nothing ever came of it. Considering the way COVID-19 paralyzed so many athletic departments, it seemed like that kind of chatter would be low on the priority list. Instead, it accelerated things, with RMU making the immediate switch to the Horizon – no lame duck year here.

Through a financial, geographic, and competitive lens, it makes quite a bit of sense. Per my research of the NCAA’s official numbers, RMU had the highest budget in the NEC by over $600k, 30% higher than second-place Saint Francis (PA). The Colonials spent almost 57% more than the NEC average, and even the leap to the Horizon doesn’t set them back, as RMU will have the third-highest budget in its new league. Plus, Pittsburgh is closer to the Ohio/Michigan center of the Horizon than it is the East Coast, and the chances of postseason success elevate considerably:

That difference matters quite a bit: 14-seeds have won exactly 15% of their first round games, per NCAA.com, pulling 21 upsets – significantly higher than the lone 16-over-1 upset in history (0.7%).

Andy Toole guided the Colonials to a storybook send-off from their former residence, capturing the NEC Tournament title with a rousing March run; only a pandemic prevented RMU from taking a swing at a 1-seed in the Big Dance. With three (eh, call it 3.5) starters returning from a 20-win squad, Toole has the core to compete immediately in his new digs.

Toole’s squads are traditionally spearheaded by their backcourts, specifically via aggressive defense that gets in foes’ shorts as soon as they cross the half court line. Now healthy after missing all of last year, Cameron Wilbon has the ability and instincts to be one of RMU’s best perimeter defenders, and he has enough size and bounce to match up with most Horizon wings, as well. The Colonials will roll out a dual-point guard lineup, and Dante Treacy fits the bill as a pesky harasser of opposing ball-handlers, tallying eight steals in the three-game NEC Tournament run.

His counterpart in the backcourt, Jon Williams, is more of an offensive threat as a facilitator and shooter, although he loses the Amir/Achmed Khan bonus of playing with his brother after gunner Josh Williams graduated. He and Treacy can both generate offense out of the pick-and-roll, particularly as passers, and RMU ranked 2nd in the entire country in assist rate last year largely thanks to those two. Forwards AJ Bramah and Charles Bain will be primary targets in such action, and RMU has consistently ranked highly under Toole in plays finished by the PnR roll man.

In theory, Bramah and Bain complement each other quite well: Bramah is a bouncy interior finisher and was one of the NEC’s best two-way rebounders, while Bain is a floor-stretching big who can pull his man out towards the three-point arc. Unfortunately, Bain suffered through a horrendous season-long slump in 2019-20 (25.0% from deep), and RMU will need the Bahamian to return to his sophomore year form (34.6%) to really unlock the offensive ceiling. If Bramah has room to operate inside, his motor and knack for drawing contact make him a nightmare for more lumbering centers.

The starting five seems set with the above-mentioned group, but Toole will need to find Horizon-caliber role players in a pool of unproven veterans (guard Terrell Brown, big man Ngonadi Olisa) and incoming freshmen (a five-man recruiting class). Of those rookies, Kam Farris seems like a sure bet to play immediately after turning down offers from Dayton and Murray State, among others, and the three-star recruit could provide a huge boost as a scorer off the bench. Enoch Cheeks and Trayden Williams (unrelated to Josh and Jon) will also have chances to play if they can make an impact on the defensive end. Up front, Tyson Brown will need to soak up minutes if Olisa doesn’t develop, and Bucknell transfer Kahliel Spear would be a great depth piece if he’s able to obtain a waiver from the NCAA.

Bottom Line: Toole is highly regarded throughout coaching circles, and returning a solid group of veterans both inside and out gives RMU a real shot at success to begin its Horizon tenure. The defensive pressure will be a curveball for many of their new conference opponents, and if Bain reverts back to his 2018-19 self, the Colonials can spread the court with four shooters (and two creators). Size and depth could be issues in a bigger, more physical league, but Toole will find ways to offset that with speed and strategy. Now that it has finally made the change, expect RMU to fit right into its new surroundings.

8. Purdue Fort Wayne

Key Returners: Jarred Godfrey, Deonte Billups, Dylan Carl, DeMierre Black, Cameron Benford
Key Losses: Brian Patrick (grad transfer), Matt Holba, Marcus DeBerry
Key Newcomers: Bobby Planutis (St. Bonaventure), Ra Kpedi (Vermont), Demetric Horton (JUCO), Bryce Waterman (JUCO), Justice Prentice, Johnathan DeJurnett, Jarvis Walker II, Jalon Pipkins (Loyola-Chicago)***

Lineup:

Outlook: As a younger brother, I can openly admit to being a copycat of my big brother: if he played football, I wanted to play football. If he listened to a certain type of music, then I did too. I’m sure Purdue Fort Wayne fans don’t want to be called little brother (they did sweep Indiana in a home-and-home, after all), but let me just present some facts:

IUPUI joined Division I hoops in 1998
Purdue Fort Wayne joined D-I hoops in 2001
IUPUI joined the Mid-Con (now Summit League) in 1998
Purdue Fort Wayne joined the Summit League in 2007
IUPUI left the Summit to join the Horizon in 2017
Purdue Fort Wayne is leaving the Summit to join the Horizon in 2020

It’s not necessarily a bad thing – both programs are moving on up! – but it does have a feeling of “hey wait a second, we want to do that too!”

The program formerly known as IPFW enters the Horizon with a couple key items in its favor: Jon Coffman is still at the helm, a successful coach whose spread offensive system led the relatively nascent D-I Mastodons to a solid 109-85 record in six seasons so far, and Jarred Godfrey is back to run said offense, a lanky 6’5 guard who can knife into the space created by Coffman’s alignment.

The offense sputtered out last year, though, and that was mostly due to a dearth of shooting. Coffman’s system relies heavily on players hitting open shots; like a snowball rolling downhill, once some of those shots go in, it spreads the defense out even further and allows Godfrey and others to get into driving lanes. Just look at Fort Wayne’s Synergy play type breakdown from the past three years – seems like maybe they’re a little reliant on Spot Ups, no?

All six of Coffman’s teams have ranked in the top 75 nationally in 3PA rate, and until last year, they all had ranked in the top 89 in 3P%, as well. But when the shooting tanked, so did the rest of the offense:

As our pal Mark Titus says, you’ve gotta make shots to win at this level.

That’s a massive red flag going into 2020-21, especially considering the team’s only two consistent threats, Brian Patrick and Matt Holba, both departed in the offseason. The returning roster – mostly made up of Godfrey, guard DeMierre Black, center Dylan Carl, and promising wing Deonte Billups – combined to shoot 105/353 last year, an abysmal 29.7%, meaning the Mastodons will desperately need internal improvement – and impact from the newcomers.

Of that group, the two junior college transfers may offer the most upside from beyond the arc. Bryce Waterman and Demetric Horton each made over 100 threes last season, shooting 43.5% and 42.7%, respectively, and both should be in line for immediate minutes of their touch translates to Division I. A pair of freshman guards should also have chances to play: point guard Justice Prentice led the prestigious Canadian program Orangeville Prep to a 42-2 record over two seasons, and Jarvis Walker is a compact scoring guard from Michigan who was twice named First Team All-State. Prentice’s court vision and speed could also allow Coffman to resume his breakneck tempo; the Mastodons plummeted to 205th in pace last year after ranking 26th, 19th, and 34th in the three years prior. If Jalon Pipkins is given a waiver to play right away, he may immediately leapfrog all four of those guys, although it’s unclear if he’s even pursuing that route.

Defense has never been Coffman’s strong suit, with last year being the first in his tenure where the Mastodons ranked better in AdjDE than AdjOE. They’ll clean the glass with fervor, and Carl and Cameron Benford should get some much-needed help inside from transfers Bobby Planutis and Ra Kpedi and bouncy freshman Jonathan DeJurnett. Planutis in particular earned meaningful minutes for a solid Bonnies squad, and he could slot in at PF right away. His shooting is a mystery: he hit 51.6% of his triples as a freshman back in 2017-18 at Mount St. Mary’s, but he made just 23.9% from beyond the arc last year. Landing squarely in the middle (37-38%) would provide a major lift to Fort Wayne’s spacing.

Coffman will play mostly man-to-man, and the perimeter rotation has enough depth and length to scrape together some decent performances. Carl isn’t a pure rim protector, but his size makes him difficult to score over inside, so the Mastodons may want to focus on running opponents off the three-point line with more urgency. Coffman’s teams are often prone to getting lit up from downtown.

Bottom Line: Fort Wayne arrives in its new digs with a couple crucial question marks: will anyone be able to make shots? Will Coach Coffman continue to slow the tempo? Last year’s answers to those questions led to the Mastodons going 8-21-1 against the total; Fort Wayne unders were easy money to anyone paying attention (I was not, unfortunately). The huge crop of newcomers offers promise, as does having an all-conference talent in Godfrey, but the Mastodons will likely be quite erratic considering the volume of threes that they and their opponents take on a nightly basis.

9. Detroit

Key Returners: Antoine Davis, Dwayne Rose Jr., Chris Brandon, Willy Isiani, Brad Calipari
Key Losses: Justin Miller, Alonde LeGrand (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Taurean Thompson (Seton Hall), Marquell Fraser (Idaho), Bul Kuol (Cal Baptist), Kyle LeGreair, Joey Liedel

Lineup:

Outlook: Mike Davis has now been in Detroit for two years, and the progress desired by the administration after hiring the once-exiled skipper has yet to materialize. Whether that’s been due to an inability to find the players necessary to vault up the Horizon pecking order, shaky locker room chemistry (possibly fueled by some nepotism), or other reasons entirely is a matter of debate, but more clear is this: ranking outside the top 300 is an unacceptable outcome for a school that fired Ray McCallum for much less.

You need to know two specific things about this squad:

Detroit led the entire country in isolation possessions last year, with over 15% of shots/turnovers coming via that route as Antoine Davis enjoyed almost appalling levels of freedom.
Defense didn’t matter, with Mike Davis sitting his guys in a porous zone over 60% of the time. Some zones are designed to make life difficult for this opponent; Detroit’s seemed only designed to make life easy on its own defenders.

There’s little reason to expect those two key factors to change much. Antoine (going first name basis to avoid confusion) is back for his junior year, and he’ll certainly continue to launch shameless triples whenever he crosses half court - even if its 5-on-3:

You will find no greener light in the country.

On the other end, the zone could work, in theory, as guys like Antoine Davis, Willy Isiani, Dwayne Rose Jr., and Chris Brandon have the length to bother opponents. Instead, playing against Detroit’s was cushy zone was a night-in, night-out treat for opponents, who got almost any shot they wanted – often without much patience required – while also abusing the Titans on the glass.

At Texas Southern, Mike Davis’ approach was to give second and third chances to troubled but talented players, and the resulting overwhelming talent edge coupled with Mike’s savvy coaching chops made the Tigers a devastating force in the SWAC. The X-and-O prowess seems to have waned since handing the offensive keys to his son, but he reached into the transfer portal to add a few intriguing additions that could allow him to raise the Titans’ level.

Taurean Thompson is the most tantalizing enigma, an athletic forward who was productive as a freshman at Syracuse back in 2017-18, and the simplicity of Detroit’s approach on both ends should aid Thompson after he couldn’t find the floor at Seton Hall. Marquell Fraser and Bul Kuol both bring complementary offensive games that should (hopefully) find success as opponents throw multiple defenders at the flammable Antoine Davis. They’ll join Brad Calipari in that role, another gunner who actually emerged into a useful role after leaving home in Lexington.

When Davis and departed forward Justin Miller weren’t launching from deep, the role players were actually quite solid. Calipari shot 38.0% from deep and never turned it over, while Brandon ranked 23rd nationally in eFG% and made an impact on the glass and as a rim protector. Replacing Miller’s shots with Thompson could lead to a boost in interior efficiency, and Fraser and Kuol give Mike Davis a physical, slashing guard and a potential stretch four with which to work. Perhaps most telling: the Titans nearly knocked off an impressive Toledo squad in the one game Antoine Davis missed last year. The offense is not necessarily doomed with Antoine playing such an enormous role, but finding smarter ways to thread in the rest of the roster’s options would go a long way towards making Detroit harder to guard.

Bottom Line: Detroit is often an enjoyable watch: they don’t stop anyone, and Antoine Davis can do some ludicrous things on the offensive end. That’s translated to a 19-43 record, though, so the winning has lagged far behind the entertainment factor. The essence of this team will be quite similar to last year, but if Mike Davis can sort out everyone’s role in a more reasonable fashion and the Titans find a new level of defensive effort, they could at least rise above the dismal level they established last year. Proceed with caution here.

10. Green Bay

Key Returners: Amari Davis, PJ Pipes
Key Losses: Tank Hemphill (grad transfer), JayQuan McCloud, Kameron Hankerson, Trevian Bell (transfer), Cody Schwartz, Manny Patterson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Josh Jefferson (Illinois St.), Jacob Jones, Terrance Thompson, Cam Kirciman, Damontae Taylor, Japannah Kellogg (redshirt), Paris Taylor (JUCO), Blayton Williams (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: As the pandemic swirled around college sports, most schools seemed highly hesitant to make a coaching change given all of the financial uncertainty. But in late May, Green Bay shockingly sent Linc Darner packing, a coach who sported a solid 92-80 (51-39) record at the school including an NCAA Tournament appearance. A surprising move in a normal offseason, committing $720k to a Darner settlement while also paying a new coach left many (including us at the Weave) scratching our heads.

The administration hopes it quieted doubters by hiring the son of Wisconsin basketball royalty – Will Ryan, eldest son of Bo, first of his name. Will Ryan was two-time D-III National Champion in 1998 and 1999 while playing for his dad, but his greatest coaching influence may actually be Saul Phillips, whom he assisted under for 12 years at North Dakota State and Ohio (of course, Phillips was also a Bo assistant at Milwaukee for two years – it all comes full circle!). Notably, that means Green Bay won’t be the carbon copy of Wisconsin’s mega-deliberate Swing offenses that one might automatically assume.

In one year at Division II Wheeling, Ryan’s team finished right near the middle of the pack in possessions per game, per Synergy, a far cry from the bottom five tempo slot that Bo’s Badgers consistently occupied. With a small lineup, Ryan let his team run a fair amount (finished 18.5% of possesions in transition), and his half court offense was much more ball screen- and motion-heavy. He often opened up sides to let his quick guards drive, something that should benefit star returning guard Amari Davis. Davis is a dynamite one-on-one driver who can finish against size at the rim or pull up in the mid-range game at a fairly efficient clip. He’ll be flanked by two veterans in point guard PJ Pipes and wing Josh Jefferson, both of whom can spread the floor around Davis.

The rest of the offensive production is a mystery, though. The interior rotation is a massive void, with no one over 6’3 sporting any Division I experience and zero back-to-the-basket scorers among them. Intriguing freshman forward Terrance Thompson may be the best bet to provide real paint production, and JUCO transfer Paris Taylor could join him simply thanks to his rebounding prowess. Turkish import Cem Kirciman and redshirt freshman Japannah Kellogg III are more comfortable facing up and putting the ball on the floor, as well, so Ryan will almost certainly stick to his spread system from last year that hopes to open up driving lanes and attack mismatches.

Where Will and Bo’s teams look familiar, though, should be on the defensive end. Both Bo and Saul Phillips were devout pack line acolytes, and in one year at Division II Wheeling, Will Ryan’s squad continued that style, unsurprisingly playing man-to-man on 100% of possessions, per Synergy. Invented by another Wisconsin legend, Dick Bennett, the scheme is a conservative one: don’t gamble for steals, don’t help far off shooters, force opponents to do everything off the dribble and suffocate any potential ball movement.

Depth is a question mark throughout the roster. Ryan had to completely overhaul his Wheeling roster last summer, so at least he had some preparation for it, but assembling a rotation late in a pandemic offseason must have been a struggle. Incoming guards Blayton Williams, Jacob Jones, and Damontae Taylor will have a chance to play, as will undersized forward Emmanuel Ansong after following Ryan from Wheeling. They’ll all have to learn the scheme quickly, so Ansong may have an edge given his familiarity with Ryan.

Bottom Line: When I flipped on Wheeling tape, I expected to feel the warm blanket of the Swing offense wrap around me. Either due to personnel limitations or being around Phillips’ more open system, though, Ryan employed a more dribble-drive-based attack, and that should vault Davis towards stardom even more quickly. Along with Pipes and Jefferson, the backcourt trio will be the strength of the team, but the Phoenix could get worked in the paint on both ends, and Ryan will need his hodgepodge of a roster to rapidly learn the pack line.

11. Milwaukee

Key Returners: Te’Jon Lucas, Josh Thomas, Courtney Brown Jr., Amir Allen, C.J. Wilbourn
Key Losses: Darius Roy, DeAndre Abram
Key Newcomers: Vin Baker Jr. (Boston College), DeAndre Gholston (JUCO), Tafari Simms (JUCO), Grant Coleman, Kaleim Taylor, Donovan Newby, Devon Hancock, Jordan Lathon (UTEP)***

*** - needs waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Milwaukee’s plan to rebuild after firing Rob Jeter in 2016 quickly hit a snag, as LaVall Jordan was swiped from the Brew City after just one year on the sideline thanks to Butler’s newfound vacancy. Hiring a new coach in two straight offseasons is difficult, and Pat Baldwin has likely received some benefit of the doubt through his first three disappointing years (37-58, 19-35 in the Horizon) as a result. Expectations should rise entering this year, though: Baldwin has recruited nearly every player on the roster, and he’s had time to figure out his approach and implement a system on both ends. Will that lead to the program’s first above-.500 season since 2015-16 with Jeter? I’m dubious.

If nothing else, Milwaukee has a perimeter centerpiece in Te’Jon Lucas, the former Illinois transfer who immediately asserted himself as the Panthers’ premier playmaker. He led the Horizon in assist rate, and his shooting progressed mightily from his final season at Illinois, further bolstering his already-dangerous ability to get to the rim:

The 3P% isn’t great by any standard, but it makes him a threat, forcing opponents to close out a little longer and respect shot fakes.

Baldwin’s offense is heavy on pick-and-rolls, and Lucas is the perfect maestro for such an attack. Aggressive UTEP transfer Jordan Lathon could give him a fantastic counterpart, a long and physical guard who initially was committed to Baldwin at Northwestern, but he needs a waiver to play this season. Thus, finding efficient options around him will be Baldwin’s biggest challenge, as leading scorer Darius Roy and inside-out forward DeAndre Abram both depart from an offense that regressed even relative to a disappointing 2018-19.

Josh Thomas is a big-bodied slasher whose shooting often diffuses him as a threat (quite the opposite of Lucas); his affinity for the mid-range also caps his ceiling. Courtney Brown Jr. and C.J. Wilbourn will be counted on to make major leaps in their second years after rarely looking at the hoop as freshmen. Brown is a big wing with a promising shooting stroke, while Wilbourn is more of a high-motor athletic big who buttered his bread on the offensive glass last year. Both have the physical tools to break out, but they’ll need to develop more confidence to deliver on said tools.

The offensive ceiling may be determined by several intriguing newcomers, both via the portal and the freshman class. Vin Baker Jr., son of longtime Milwaukee Buck Vin Baker, is a tantalizingly skilled 6’9 forward with some guard skills, and he could be a late bloomer as he grows into his body. JUCO transfer DeAndre Gholston and freshmen Donovan Newby, Kaleim Taylor, and Devon Hancock all have chances to play right away, and I’ll bet on Gholston for his size/shooting combination and college experience and Newby for his leadership and ability to let Lucas play off-ball at times.

The Panthers’ limited improvement took place entirely on the defensive end. With more depth and athleticism, Baldwin extended the team’s pressure, allowing his guys to harass opposing ball-handlers and seeing a notable increase in forced turnovers as a result (from 333rd nationally in turnover rate to 61st). Unfortunately, with pressure often comes fouling, and Milwaukee plummeted to 336th in defensive free throw rate, unable to prevent foes from repeatedly earning easy points at the stripe.

The pressure did more than just force turnovers, though. It helped Milwaukee’s defense rank 2nd in the entire country in possessions ending via isolation (Florida State was 1st), and that is one of the least efficient play types in all of college hoops. Lucas uses his quickness and length to be an impactful defender, both on and off the ball, and Baldwin should once again have depth to throw waves of players at the opposition. Losing Abram hurts inside, as he was the team’s best defensive rebounder and could guard multiple positions, but players like Brown, Baker, Wilbourn, and Tafari Simms could offer similar versatility. Amir Allen is the team’s lone true center and a decent rim protector, and he could make more for an impact after struggling with a groin injury at times last year.

Bottom Line: The pressure is mounting for Baldwin to assemble a winning season; after all, the school fired Jeter after winning 20 games in his final year and finishing above .500 in conference play in eight of 11 campaigns. His get out of jail free card would be somehow securing a commitment from his NBA-bound son in the 2021 recruiting class, but that’s unlikely. At the very least, Milwaukee was fun to fade last year (8-20 ATS, third-worst in the country), but that’s not the kind of accomplishment that will satisfy his employer.

Tier 4

12. IUPUI

Key Returners: Marcus Burk, Jaylen Minnett, Elyjah Goss, Isaiah Williams, Mike DePersia
Key Losses: Grant Weatherford (grad transfer), Zo Tyson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Azariah Seay (JUCO), Bobby Harvey (JUCO), Jonah Carrasco (JUCO), Nathan McClure (JUCO), Dimitiri Georgiadis (JUCO), Bakari LaStrap

Lineup:

Outlook: After head coach Jason Gardner resigned in late August 2019 due to a drunk driving arrest, the IUPUI administration quickly handed the (interim) keys to assistant coach Byron Rimm II. Rimm II led the Jaguars to a dismal 7-25 overall record and a clear last place finish in the Horizon (3-15, three games back of second-last Detroit), prompting questions about what the program would do with the position. A pandemic complicates things, but eventually, Rimm II was retained:

Byron Rimm II will remain IUPUI men's basketball coach for at least the coming season, the school announced Thursday.

“For at least the coming season.” The enthusiasm in that release really leaps off the page, doesn’t it?

Now that he’s back, Rimm II’s most pressing issue will be picking up the pieces of a calamitous defense that was routinely torched in basically any way imaginable. IUPUI finished 344th nationally in KenPom’s AdjDE, ranking 337th in eFG% and 339th in defensive rebound rate. The Jaguars completely lacked impactful size; the only rotation player over 200 pounds was 6’3 guard Marcus Burk. The interior duo of Zo Tyson (gone) and Elyjah Goss had some length to them and played with zeal (Goss is one of the best two-way rebounders in the country), but both were thin and struggled to stand up to physical big men. A healthy Isaiah Williams would provide a significant lift; he missed the season’s final 13 games last year, and the Jaguars clearly missed his 225-pound frame in the frontcourt. JUCO transfers Jonah Carrasco and Dimitri Georgiadis will need to provide depth, but that’s about all that should be inspected of the lightly-recruited pair.

Hope for the Jags lies in the fact that foes shot 37.8% from beyond the arc, a rate that Rimm II will have to hope is unsustainable. Unlucky or not, opponents were far too comfortable against the Jags’ perimeter defense, illustrated by IUPUI’s defense ranking 281st in turnover rate and 332nd in Dribble Handoff’s Shot Quality metric. In their defense, the Jaguars had basically no depth: starting guards Burk, Jaylen Minnett, and Grant Weatherford all played over 34 minutes per game, and with Weatherford opting to grad transfer, the depth will once again be a major concern. Sophomore Mike DePersia proved serviceable as a passer, but he’s a non-entity on the perimeter (4/34 from deep, 11.8%), meaning the Jags will be counting on their enormous class of junior college transfers to relieve that burden.

Though high in quantity, the proficiency of those transfers remains to be seen. Four guards join the roster, but only Azariah Seay and Bobby Harvey inspire much confidence in terms of past production and JUCO program pedigree. Nathan McClure and Amrit Dhaliwal are more “break in case of emergency” options to my eye. Both Seay and Harvey are off-ball shooters who can help stretch the floor, though, which doesn’t solve the team’s ball-handling conundrum.

Minnett is the primary creator, but he’s at his best when off the ball, giving opponents fits while they worry about covering him and Burk, two absolutely lethal perimeter shooters. To wit: they combined to make 208 triples last year, the second-most of any duo in the country, behind only UTSA’s Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace. The offense saw a slight uptick when DePersia and Minnett played together, per Hoop Lens, an alignment that gave Minnett more scoring freedom. Burk will always be the focal point thanks to his more varied skill set, but the Jaguars can pull off some surprising upsets if both Minnett and Burk are feeling it, like when they erupted for 69 combined points in an OT win at Oakland.

The swing factor may be Bakari LaStrap, a decorated prep player from Texas who could quickly seize a starting role. He’s a bouncy athlete with impressive court vision who won two private school state titles. Rimm II could hardly contain his excitement when LaStrap committed, so expect the youngster to make his presence felt immediately.

Bottom Line: Despite having two volcanic scorers in Burk and Minnett, IUPUI is the clear choice for last in the Horizon. Rimm II struggled to maintain consistent success in the SWAC during a 10-year stay at Prairie View A&M, and last year’s key indicators – shot selection, defensive organization – were worrisome in a long-term sense. If opponents’ three-point shooting regresses towards the mean and the Jaguars’ numerous newcomers make positive impacts, IUPUI could climb a few spots, but the focus should probably be on building around LaStrap in the future.